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IanR

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Everything posted by IanR

  1. I think it impossible to predict outcomes for the year ahead to any accuracy , its all guess work, just a bit of fun However, one area that we can easily predict to a high degree of accuracy is the lack of thunderstorms , we had one in 2018 and 2019 will again prove that they will be very thin on the ground , I will be optimistic though and predict in this location we will get one again overhead , just the one though. and maybe another day of a few distant rumbles, but thats being even more optimistic
  2. 'mostly good' may june and july were great here, august has been typical of the last few , poor , but not a complete disaster , factor in the lack thundery stuff marks this summer down another notch
  3. I once read a theory that active sunspot periods increase thunderstorm activity , could this be the reason ? We are in a low sunspot phase
  4. worst year for thunder ever, one thunder day here so far in 2018, a new all time low count, its been building up to this a while, with the thunder counts getting ever lower every year, next year 0 thunder days , would not bet against it
  5. high summer feels a distant memory here

    1. karyo

      karyo

      All eyes on winter prospects

  6. all the electrical stuff is out to sea, seems to want to stay there too,
  7. looks like it will head towards the ribble estuary, lytham area etc
  8. uniform overcast stratus crud here , no sign of any solar input, slighty humid feel though, just not feeling it here today
  9. Last year I recorded two thunder days here, this year there has been just one so far, Contrast that to pre 2000 where 7 thunder days would be about the norm, thats discounting those nights where we would get a good distant lightning show but no thunder, which perhaps would happen twice yearly a full calendar year with no thunder is on the cards in the not too distant future me thinks , I thought it was going to be this year but a decent thunder day two Saturdays ago saved a totally thunderless 2018 up to that point , there is still time in 2018, but I think it could be a very long wait now
  10. 27c peaked in wigan today , a nice sunny evening for a bike ride , with patchy clouds ,we must be south of a front
  11. Is there a chance of a repeat of yesterday. A very good thunder day here yesterday just like the old days, with thunder rolls you just lost count of in one particular cell, and other electrical cells coming along later , like buses these thunderstorms, could not believe my luck when I heard round 3 rumbling in the distance with my name on it , surely not again . this is the NW
  12. I was under that cell, it was producing very frequent intracloud lightning every few seconds , and 'crackly' sounding thunder, with just the odd cg deep boom type thunder
  13. looks like 2018 will not be the first thunder free year in my location after all , quite active here today , 3 thundery showers queuing to take their turn . one was very active electrically, but mainly cloud to cloud
  14. had 3 separate storms cells here today , one over head with frequent thunder every few seconds, not much lightning visible though I did see a few intracloud flashes, if only it was night
  15. ah yes , generally drizzly showers and bands of moderate rain with stratus filled grey skies , the NW has no problem delivering that
  16. I decided to abandon my storm chase along the m62 eastwards, after checking the radar and lightning maps the storms where already pushing into the north sea, before I even left I am now banking on a first, the first calender year ever without a single rumble heard or lighting flash seen in my location for the whole of 2018, its gonna happen , which actually is very remarkable in itself, but could become the new norm Seeing as July is statistically the thunderiest month , unless August delivers , then the chance fades anyway as we go on through September into autumn
  17. haha , you quoted my post before i could spell check and edit, a bit rushed ! , I want to get to the storms, its my only chance of seeing any this year, right , tea now ,,,then off , I will stay within the speed limit, i will let you know how I get on
  18. Its a friday , no work tommorow , and I am alone tonight, I am really tempted to jump in the car and head east along the m62 over the pennines , just cooking tea now , so it may get 8 o clock before i can set out anyone think I will be wasting my time , will those storms have moved to far north or out into the north sea by the time I get there, sod it , i am going anyway, i may get a distant lighting show as it will be dusk by then , better rush my tea down then , never done a storm chase , wish me luck !
  19. BBC radio Manchester and BBC local news mention risk of heavy showers and thunder today BBC national forcast says storms in East mainly , useless lot ! which is it then ? I would bet on the latter @ Crewecold, something does seem to have changed but what , its not like the north west never got storms , we did , although still not as much as the south east, but we got a fair share, tbh I think storm activity is less everwhere but prone areas still get them is there haaarp experiments or cloud seeding secretly going on ?
  20. yes it is crap, something must have changed, I too remember the eighties and nineties, and for all the hot spells we have had recently , a thunderstorm or three would have been a dead cert at some point. I remember francis wilson once on breakfast tv saying thundery weather will move north this evening, then later I looked out the bathroom window at the back and saw frequent vivid cg strikes from two storms queuing at the back of each other about 2 miles away with deep booms, then a close bolt which made me jump from another separate closer storm from the front side of the house that had just started to form. that kind of thundery weather seems a distant memory, I keep putting it all down to bad luck, but the bad luck has gone on too long ,even bad luck runs out, any thunder forecasts thesedays is taken with a pinch of salt ,
  21. No storms for NW England then , even though we are near 30c atm and closer to that low pressure, the East have them all, and will have them all tomorrow , here is what stav danos basically just said about friday, thunderstorms will continue to develop in Eastern England, severe in places , meanwhile in the west , wind and rain will move in where it will be fresher Will I ever see another storm here
  22. And to rub salt into the wound, the southern counties WILL get spectacular thunderstorms at the end of the upcoming southern heatwave and the NW will get stratus cover and patchy drizzle as per this morning Even if we joined in with heat and sun , we would still get patchy drizzle at the breakdown, or if we are lucky.. moderately heavy rain ! haha Still not a single rumble here since May 2017, is am now banking on 2018 being complete thunder free here , amazing to think we once got multiple storms in a day , and it would be rare to get through a fortnight without thunder in the 3 main summer months in the seventies and eighties
  23. I would be very happy with that , similar to what we have had over the last couple of months, I hate extreme temps, either hot or cold This summer is going down with 1976, 2006 etc as one of the best ones, but for the love of god lets have some thundery spells thrown in to make it perfect
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