Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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The UK looks like returning to the warmer side of the low pressure so least it wont be cold rain. Nice warmth building across the channel too.
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The Azores high looks like taking a long holiday away from the UK so it looks like the best route to something warm will be from the Euro high drawing up warm southerlies as low pressure pulls back west into the Atlantic. Ecm 12z shows how this would develop. Before that its looking generally unsettled though very mild at first with temps dropping back to average/slightly below.
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Now that skies have cleared its turned into a glorious afternoon with temps pushing 14c. Hopefully the FI charts from the GFS that are showing a S/SE flow will materialise.
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Not bad temperatures at all considering upper air temps are -3c for most of the UK.
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It now looks like an increasingly mild, albeit increasingly unsettled outlook for the next 5/6 days. We will have a light southerly for a time raising temperatures into the very mild category but during next week winds will turn to a cooler showery northwesterly direction.
On into FI the GEFS mean is indicating chances of an easterly with pressure lowest over southern England. Potentially a warm direction at this time of year, though still unsettled.
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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
LOL it wasn't worth the wait, another poor looking Ecm 12z which is yet again not interested in the fine warm weather indicated by the ukmo and gfs 12z. However, the ecm has been coming second best to the gfs quite often through the winter and spring so far so there is still reason to be hopeful for some welcome spring warmth on the way.
Its clearly sticking to its guns and refusing to entertain any idea of a more high pressure influenced scenario. Quite ramarkable that that there is so much divergence at such a short timescale.
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About time too! This Spring so far has been a bit stagnant tbh with not much to talk about. Expect all the new Spring growth to start responding quicky.
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The GFS 12z is looking good from Tomorrow on into the middle of next week with rising temperatures (which the bbc forecast has just mentioned) and more in the way of dry and sunny conditions. Scattered, possible heavy showers are a possibility on any day but it will all contribute towards a very Springlike mix of weather. And temperatures look like rising into the mid teens widely for the first time this year. Plus the UKMO is pretty much in agreement.
....patiently awaits the ECM take on things.
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Nice to see that even in spells of sub 0c upper temps such as this coming Sunday/Monday we are still forecast to achieve double figure maxes over a wide area.
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With some rather warm uppers i would expect higher temperatures than what the GFS is currently showing for Saturday. Turning milder, possibly pleasantly warm later this week before cooler air moves in from the west for Sunday.
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Some unseasonably warm temperaures getting tantasingly close to the UK on the GFS 12z. Just goes to show what the better ECM would be capable of delivering.
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Lots of options on the table for how April will begin. the ECM throws in a lovely sumemrlike Southeasterly while the GEM bullzodes the Atlantic back in without giving high pressure time to build. I believe we will end up with a middle of the road scenario like GFS version of events. Settled for a time with temps in the low to mid teens.
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British Summer Time begins soon
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ECM also likes the stalling low to the west of the UK idea.
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Looks like a bit of a battle emerging next week between warm air from the south and cold air from the Arctic. The GFS 0z showed the warm southerlies winning out, while the 6z had more of a cool northeasterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html
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Well it definately looks like March will end up as an incredibly benign and average month with little in the way of extremes. Even the temperatures havent shown much deviation, starting off cold/chilly and rising 3/4c to end the month, pretty much in line with the expected rise in temps through March.
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The change has finally come! Gone are the harsh cold winds of the past 2 weeks and its been much more pleasant and springlike today. Its amazing what an increase of only 3/4c can do.
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41 minutes ago, Eugene said:
Yes i agree, its been a massively overrated high pressure spell with temps no better than average and plenty of cloud cover, people saying todays forecast was wrong when in actual fact the forecast was for rather cloudy not completely overcast, no signs of any prolonged warmth just rather cloudy weather with sunny intervals to damp windy atlantic based weather later in the week.
But on the flip side, the models were showing a progressively colder week in the run up to Easter and instead its more unsettled milder southwesterlies.
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Im happy with all this dry weather too, but i just wish the temperatures would be a touch higher. However it is only March and Its like looking for cold in mid September. One cant get too picky for warmth so early in the season. Plenty of time for something nice and warm and the sight of some lovely early warmth on the 12Z in FI is a reminder that warmer times are just round the corner.
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15 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:
ECM I suspect may start to show Easter cold fare...I love cold Easter markets
Looks to me like its fallen more in like with the rest of the model suite?
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35 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:
I love nagging East'NE winds well into spring giving frosts, cold biting winds.....Well into late Spring....The models suggest this and possible flurries next week...my kind of weather that.
Early spring warmth isn't my cup of tea at all...produces bugs an wasp growth.
Which models?
Looks fairly settled and mild here
The ECM 0z however looked much colder but the outcome for next week is far from confirmed.
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If theres no cold and snowy spell on the horizon then people arent going to discuss it. Same goes for a warm spell, which in the next 10-15 days looks equally as unlikely. What we have is a very dry and settled spell with temps not straying too much from average.
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Southern England would benefit from the increasing warmth over the Channel if the ECM 240h chart verified. Big temperature variations here with possibly the first 20c in southern England but a nagging northeasterly pegging temps back further north. Nice to see the models flirting with the idea of something warmer and/or more settled.