Milhouse

A bit of a battleground between low pressure to the west and high pressure trying to hold on to the east. What results is a typical NW/SE split and remaining warm. sometimes very warm where high pressure gains a foothold.

10c upper temperatures edging into the SE so possibly a very warm day in store on Monday. Sunday not looking too bad either with high pressure keeping things more settled the further east you go. Lets see what happens from here.

The indications of a swift transition to high pressure after the weekend may have receded somewhat but its still going to feel warm and humid/muggy at times so still summery and not the awful Autumnal conditions of June 2012. Its a rapidly changing picture over the next 10 days with no 2 days the same. Thursday, Friday and Sunday looking quite decent days at the moment with a band of rain likely to straddle the UK on Saturday but it wont be raining everywhere.

Its a good one and a half months to go before i notice the sun setting any earlier so lots of time to enjoy the light.

And heres the ECM mean at day 10. It shows that the op was on the warm side of the ensembles, but on the flip side, the 0z was on the unsettled side of the ensembles. The general consensus appears to be low pressure retreating back into the Atlantic allowing higher pressure to move up from the south. The driest and warmest of the weather will be found in the SE but under southerly winds nowhere will be especially cool. Something like the op could materialise. Just because plumes are rare doesnt mean they wont happen as its the ideal set up for one to occur with low pressure to the west and high pressure over Europe.

GEFS mean has dry weather more likely than the low pressure outlook that the 12z op is showing

Good potential for warmth from a southerly direction looking at this

Not quite the heat that the 6z was showing for Friday and Saturday but Sunday still sees a definite push of high pressure up from the Azores.

Things all happening rather fast on the 6z. By Sunday high pressure has moved in and its a rather pleasant cooler day with temperatures of 19-21c

Its only June 1st and already the models are looking very tasty from a heat/thunderstorm point of view!

The GFS 6z has drier conditions moving into the SW as early as late on Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure moves up from the south. By Thursday this has quickly transferred over the rest of the country to bring a dryish day for the bulk of England and Wales with temperatures just a little below normal. From Friday onwards it gets interesting with temperatures rising.

Summer for me is favourite. One has to just be outside today to see why. Difficult to say whether Autumn or winter is worst. Autumn is a rotten season all about decay and damp. That musty manure smell is horrible. As for winter, i wouldnt choose to jump into a freezing cold bath, hence why i also find winter cold generally uncomfortable, unless its incredibly still so you dont feel it. I Like sunny and cold days though but there has to be no wind at all.

ECM op looks to be overdoing the vigerous looking low at T+240. The mean looking promising.

What a stunning day to start of summer. I was driving along last night at about 8pm and just had to stop and get out the car to take in the atmosphere with a misty haze over the fields. Late May/early June is such a special time of year with the lush greenery. Shame its going to go downhill for a while but there has been an improvement in the models for prospects towards next weekend. Not going to be settled nationwide, far from it, but temperatures will be back on the up. The ECM mean just out looks very nice with low pressure in the Atlantic helping to feed up high pressure from the south later on. A June like 2003 doesnt seem too far off the mark at this stage. Warm and wet to start with, then becoming drier.

Quite good agreement on a very warm spell just around the corner. Peaking at the weekend, falling back slightly then a more prolonged warm spell coming from the Azores high pushing up from the SW. Quite a bit of rain to come though associated with the first peak next weekend. Important not to read too much into the ensembles but they do look promising indicating a general warming trend is likely.

15.4c please

I always like to look at June 2005 for an example of where it can quickly go from hideous looking unsettled charts to a heatwave within the space of a few days. The current output needs a few tweaks then we would be looking at something similar. I would definately take this mornings ECM.

I do agree to an extent. It has been the absence of any cold weather that has produced the significantly above average months thus far rather than any spells of notable warmth. But i dont like cold in Spring so its been quite good from a personal point of view as temperatures have consistently been in the comfortable category. Was nice and warm round about a week ago as well.

Yeah its rubbish now but it has been one of the warmest Springs on record so some perspective is needed. Nice at the weekend for most but turning pants next week. Hopefully the ECM is on to something right at the end.

ECM does look promising in FI. It does seem that after the weekends half hearted attempt at an Azores ridge we should be looking to the SE for the next warm spell. If it comes off as the ECM is suggesting it could bring a rapid rise in temperatures.

GEFS ensemble mean looking rather promising for a more long lasting period of dry weather with temperatures around average with easterly winds as a result of high pressure building to the north of the UK. Pressure looks like falling from the south around day 10 which would indicate more unsettled conditions pushing up from the south. This is in line with what the GFS 12z was showing.

Low pressure forming over Greenland on this run. So while we still have high pressure in the wrong place we dont have low pressures attacking the UK from off the Atlantic. A rather messy sort of pattern is the result with mostly light winds, average temperatures and a scattering of showers likely.

GFS 12z looking rather decent for next weekend. Still cant rule out the risk of a shower but in light winds it should feel pleasant. And heading on into Monday, low pressure being held back to the northwest allowing the fine conditions to persist.

We need to get high pressure over the near continent asap. While there is low pressure there it seems to act as a magnet drawing low pressure from across the Atlantic right over the UK. Good job the jet is rather slow and sluggish at the moment allowing drier spells inbetween.

Yes, such an intense high over the UK doesnt happen often. But high pressure to the east can deliver even warmer temperatures e.g 1st August.