Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:
Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning. Much better GFS 06z
Tentative steps in the right direction compared to a few days ago. The ECM mean is indicating temperatures should be back up to average,maybe above by day 9 and 10 once we cut off the northerly flow.
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A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.
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Better position of the high pressure ridging on the gfs 12z than the 6z centred more over the UK to bring about a change to warmer settled weather. Seems like we won't be able to avoid winds from a coolish direction but an easterly can bring in the warmth at this time of year.
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23.8c Wiltshire
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The number of trees looking to burst into leaf around here shows what a mild start to the year its been. Hopefully we can get a warm south easterly developing in the mid-long range outlook. Although when i see the current charts i do get awful fears of another May 1996 but hopefully we can avoid that.
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Absolutely incredible summer here too. The only downside being that next year will not be as good as this one, barring an absolute mirracle. Just shows that great summers can still happen! Seems like the warmth and sunshine lasted forever. 10/10 from me
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2 hours ago, danm said:
Anyway....
The gardens have had a good dose of rain this weekend and this fresher weather has cleared out the heat in our homes so it’s more comfortable.
Looking forward now to a return of summery weather, I love those balmy warm evenings, hot sunny days and being able to be outside while having a pint.
The weather this weekend is making me dread Autumn. I love cold, snowy weather but personally can’t stand it when it’s cool and wet. Its dark, dull, grim and depressing. But we all have different weather preferences!
My thoughts exactly Dan. I have resigned myself to the fact that we need the rain and the past few days have at least watered the garden even if rainfall amounts were nothing significant.
But i am more than ready for the next installment of Summer and things are really on a knifeedge heading into August with some searing temperatures building to the south. These could head our way or we could be left with a cooler but still warm northeasterly which the ECM favours this evening.
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2 hours ago, cheese said:
Early August seems prime time for heat records to go.
And we couldnt be in a better position to smash the record with the searing heat pushing north next week.
Im very pleased with the outlook at the moment with an upgrade in the rainfall expected at the weekend which should give the garden a long overdue water. Then its all eyes on a return of the heatwave!! What an astonishing summer we are having.
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Hull made 32c yesterday, which is very unusual. There has certainly been a shift in fortunes this Summer from west to east.
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Yes i think we could do with a good drench of rain very soon. It looks like it could happen towards the end of the week. Thereafter id like the heat to return, with preferably some thunderstorms thrown in.
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7 hours ago, Neglectedchicken said:
I think next week is a perfect setup in a long time which will potentially get temperatures close or above the record temperature, this is down to many factors as mentioned above such as the dry ground.
Thats the only thing missing so far. For what has been a remarkable summer so far, the max temp of 33c is not that special
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2 hours ago, cheese said:
Today is the first humid day I can recall for ages - certainly for more than a month. Otherwise, humidity during the day has generally been around 30-35%.
And yes, I haven't had any sleepless nights. For the most part it really has just been pleasant and comfortable.
Ive still got the winter duvet on and can only remember 1 night where i struggled to get to sleep.
I seriously cant believe the longeviety of this spell. Who remembers the days of hunting for short lived Spanish Plumes or temporary ridges. We will look back on this summer for a very long time and its hard to believe were just past half way.
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2 hours ago, cheese said:
Yeah, but it was fully clear before 9am.
No low cloud to speak of down here close to Spurn Point this morning. There was a noticeable breeze during the day but it did tend to die off during the afternoon so things warmed up a tad. Even the days last week that started off cloudy were completely sunny by around 9am so the sun quickly got to work.
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The Ecm 12z is just insane with a renewed push of the azores high which would hang around well beyond day 10. Also like the look of a temporary halt to the easterlies which would raise temperatures here. Very significant timed indeed!
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Good grief it looks like the heatwave isnt shifting anytime soon. Thats not to say we wont see a continuation of the light easterly flow bringing supressed temperatures here. Still im not going to complain at 20c and crystal clear blue skies. Im guessing when the end finally comes it will be preceded by a couple of days of southwesterlies bringing some high temps over here for a change.
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I was getting a bit concerned from recent gfs runs that we would be stuck with northeasterlies yet again pegging temps back. Im pleased to see that doesnt look the case. Low cloud and mist should be kept to a minimum and quickly burn back. Better than the warm spell at the start of June where the east coast was often shrouded in cloud all day.
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The latest GFS runs have a look of mid July 2006 about them. High pressure intensifying over the Uk and not budging for days on end. Im no fan of oppressive heat in the workplace or at night but other than that, bring it on!
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Nice to see another nationwide spell of summery warmth on the horizon. The wind and the rain will sure be back at some point but now im revelling in us seeing bucketloads of high pressure just at the right time of year.
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Ive got to say the outlook looks very nice indeed with a bit of everything, and certainly not the clickbait 'June Monsoon' headline from a few days ago. Some decent rain forecast to water the garden and a lot of dry and quite warm weather for us easterners. This summer is shaping up nicely!
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At last an upturn in fortunes for those on the east coast, though i was fortunate enough to spend the last week in Somerset where it was glorious much of the time. Azores high ridging across southern england produces the warmest conditions over here and thats what the models are suggesting next week.
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Perhaps some early indications of where were heading next after this current humid and quite cloudy easterly flow. And thats the Azores high coming into play cutting off the easterly flow but maintaining the very warm conditions for most. One thing for sure is the Atlantic seems very sluggish to non existant at the moment.
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38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
looks bad tomorrow, hasn't fully cleared today at all, but still summery and partly cloudy
10 miles has made all the dirrerence round these parts today. Hull city centre had clear blue skies around lunchtime but 10 miles towards the coast its remained dull and misty. Hopefully the gfs12z is on to something and we can see a shift in the centre of the high in about a weeks time. I cant really complain though as even here weve seen copious amounts of sunshine here this month and some decent temps too.
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Hopefully we avoid any overly cool northerly in 7-10 days time. Id rather have atlantic over a cool northerly at this time of year bringing the chance of frosts. But a continuation of the dry and settled would do just fine, with a few storms thrown in for good measure, and to water the plants.
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I wouldnt say its concerning Eugene. Its just the opposite end of the spectrum than what we had in late Winter and we are being told that extremes are becoming more common. Plus with all the rain around today it should please those gardeners and farmers, who will have also welcomed the recent fine weather which will have brought the crops on. May is a transitional month which can feel like mid summer at times as well as early Spring at others. It just so happens we are getting heat and storms early this year.
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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.