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  1. Hi pbweather, You seem to missing the overall point of the analogue. The years shown are for the winter period running from December to February not just December!!! Also as the winter period runs through from one year to the next, the analogue takes the year that Febuary ends in. For example, 2010 was in fact the winter of 2009/10 and 1977 was indeed 76/77 and so on. As for the results, if you go back through the years in the analogue you will find that all the winters had at least 2 out of the 3 winter months, with below average temperatures and at least 1 month with well below avera
  2. Hi guys, I've took all the sub -1 OPI years coupled with an easterly QBO and produced a 500 mb height anomaly plot for the winter period. The results speak for themselves!!!
  3. i totally agree, I have done a little research on this and found that warm springs tend to produce weak summers ie colder and wetter. Vise versa if the spring is colder then the summer trends warmer. I think the solar decline will be apparent this summer and expect a similar pattern to 2009/10/11. This current pattern will change from mid march and i can only see the Azores high moving up and hence dry and warm. Cant see any easterlies forming.
  4. Some very interesting times ahead as far as cold lovers are concerned, a negative outlook on the AO coupled with a warming event that may split the vortex on the cards. Also it looks like a tri-pole set up developing in the north Atlantic. All good pointers towards a cold spell. I will say however that it maybe end of Jan into feb before we see any deep cold digging in!!!
  5. Xmas week looks cold to me. We will still be under low pressure dominance however due to a high pressure forcing its way in to acrtic from the north side ( Bering straight area ) it will force colder air in the low pressure nr the uk. As a big high pressure says dominant in Russia the low becomes near stationary and weakens but starts to pull in a northerly air flow for xmas week. We are not talking bitter cold but cold enough for snow and far from a mild scenario that everybody seems obsessed with. Gfs, ecmwf,gem,jma all have this high pressure building scenario.
  6. GFS last few runs have a high pressure forcing into the Arctic. We may see some cold weather Xmas week as we get more of a northerly pattern as the low pressure are forced south. One to watch closely.
  7. Im gong for a northerly blast ( from a transient low ) with wintry showers in every major city so the bookies have to pay out!!!!
  8. Some interesting model runs today. All point towards a high pressure pushing into the north pole. One to keep an eye on with 4 models suggesting it
  9. Yes thats why I posted it. Just can't understand why it's run that outcome too many times
  10. Cant get my head round the fact that the cfs keeps trying to push a high pressure over Scandinavia. I know people say cfs is inconsistent blah blah but it has regularly pointed to high around this region for x mas week. This model must have picked something up or else why would it show these runs!!!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m2/cfs-0-348.png?06 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121100/run1m/cfs-0-366.png?00
  11. Cant all be wrong about a disturbed vortex surely!!!!
  12. Hmm CFS model goes for a block from the 18th of December through to next year!!! I know this is a unreliable model for specifics but the pointer is there. Be very interested in the GFS in the next few days!!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112600/run1m/cfsnh-0-534.png?00
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