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Joey.G

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Posts posted by Joey.G

    Storms and Convective discussion - July 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    @staplehurst thanks for the forecasts, definitely helped me see more storms over the years!

    I'm down in Gloucestershire today for 2000 trees festival so missing out a little on this mornings activities close to home. Also a bit gutted not to be able to chase this afternoon. Might get a chance to see the beginnings of the activity as it builds and moves away. Front has cleared here now and there's quite a bit of blue sky, humidity feels very high. Definitely ripe and bodes well for the forecast prefrontal development later. Good luck to those who are chasing! 🤞👊

    • Like 1

    Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    IMHO the level 2 was justified. I'm a tree surgeon in Derbyshire and we've been out all day responding to call outs from power company and local authority. We've been to 25 jobs and personally I was attending a tree that had downed a 11kv line when the squall line went through and another big tree went over right next to us! Definitely the most intense squall I've personally witnessed. (was somewhat East of Nottingham at the time) 

    • Like 9

    The decline in thunder days.

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    I don't.

    You're right, can't go around saying things like that without having the proof to back it up. I'm fully willing to accept that it could be an imby perspective, or that I'm recalling the past in a rose tinted light. I think there's quite a few of us on here who, like me, were kids in the 80s and 90s and remember some 'all nighters' or days with multiple storms. These could probably even be narrowed down to a handful of events that we all experienced and had such an impact on us at the time that we're all here on these forums as a direct result! And so it could be that, in remembering them, recent years seem poor in comparison. 

    Yet I'm still convinced that there has been some fundamental change. It is difficult to get an accurate comparison. The number of days with thunder heard is just one indicator and doesn't differentiate between those 'thundery showers' vs a cracking storm. Number of lightning strikes would be a great quantative value but how far back does the data go for that? The European Severe Weather Database could be a good way to compare frequency of events, though there's problems with that as I feel more recent events will have been better reported. I would definitely like to see a similar paper to the one I posted before about the number of mcs'. I think the number and track of them could strongly sway me either way. 

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    It would be interesting to get a real statistical analysis of the decline in the thunder over the past decade or so.. I think its beyond doubt that its a fact.. and see if it can be related/correlated to any other climactic shift. Mean jetstream positions, SSTs, the effect of the freshwater from ice cap melt on the gulf stream.. Kinda makes me want to go back to university.. Any meteorology students on here?! 

    Below is a graphic from a paper by Gray & Marshall showing the track of all MCS' in the UK between 1981 and 1997.I think its probably been on here before. Would be fantastic to see a similar paper covering the period 2001 to 2017.. Even just the number of cases in the same period would be instructive. 

    Screenshot_20190625-175555.jpg

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    @Supacell and others out chasing, Smartie has added a post on UKWW stating that the current mcs will move out of the highest theta e plume and decay somewhat while a new mcs will form as the plume moves more over the UK. Sounds like we're all roughly in the ballpark though and as ever itll be a case of running that radar back and forth and trying to guesstimate a sweet spot last minute! I'm near Luton now and toying with the idea of heading to the Surrey Hills. I however did not get the day off work tomorrow and am due in wirksworth at 7am don't mind not sleeping but I'd hate to have to bail in the middle of the action! 

    • Like 1

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Well for a lot of us the looooooong spell of heat did go with a bang finally. For those who didn't get anything over the past couple of days I can imagine it must be incredibly frustrating. And for regular people with no interest in the weather it must have been a surprise today to wake up to windy overcast cool conditions!

    Props to the forecasters and congrats to the chasers too, strong work! I had to sit in a staff meeting in the morning with grumbles of thunder nearby from small cells but with gorgeous undulatus bases ( @Supacell these were the ones over Belper, couldnt tell you what the lightning was like since I was grinding my teeth at work) and then do my days work, for which mercifully there was a lull in activity, before I could head off out. I made it as far as Brigg in North Lincs by which time I was caught up in it all. Think I missed by mins the worst of the convective gusts but the darkness, hail, rain and frequent flashes were impressive. Roads flooded, everyone pulling up on to the kerb and tree branches everywhere. It moved over pretty fast though and thankfully the roads drained as fast as they flooded so I headed south towards Norfolk hoping to catch the MCS and nighttime lightning. Again made it as far as Kings Lynn before I was prematurely overtaken. Stood in a field getting soaked watching a whole lot of flashing but not much in the way of visible bolts. Hoped for crawlers on the back edge but think there was too much low cloud obscuring. Interestingly though there was the very occasional but massive discharge from the kind of rear anvil shield area which i had never seen before.

    Too much rain for nighttime lightning photography attempts but ill have a look on the gopro and see if theres owt worth showing. Overall A good chase but kinda feel like I missed out still. Especially after the pics of the York storm! Major kudos @Gorky

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    I thought I heard thunder, this confirms it. I am hoping for some storms tonight to set me up before I drive east tomorrow.

    Yep, 2 cg's seen corresponding to the 2 sferics on blitzortung. Not the full destabilising yet though. I've got to work tomorrow but have already decided to drive out East soon as I can after, hopefully in time for the party!

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