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  1. 41 likes
    I am sure that many many on here, and I absolutely include myself in that, do indeed get a buzz from seeing cold charts in the forecasts. No matter how far away. GFS +384, ECM +240, teleconnections, ensembles etc. Us watching for trends, patterns, signals, Trying to second guess cause and effect of every minute change in the atmosphere from run to run. All in a massive 3d world from the top of the stratosphere to the pavements outside our houses. That is all part and parcel of this mad annual winter ritual of ours. Personally, I would just find it incredibly boring if all the charts only went up to 3 or 5 days Most here are plenty long enough in the tooth to know that those faraway charts eye candy charts have many hoops to jump and many hurdles to clear before making it into the more reliable time frame (and even then will most probably go wrong).. But if it ties in with the 'background signals' (no matter how tentatively sometimes ), then yes, absolutely, that's what it's all about! I see no reason why good cheer, hope and optimism should be curtailed in those instances. In the same way nor should the perennial pessimists and pragmitists amongst us, who arrive like clockwork to pour hot water on those hopes and dreams (as long as not trolling of course). Each to their own in life, but for me it's always been all about the chase...
  2. 31 likes
    Morning all just out of interest I have now got an up -date from our team with their thoughts going forward and I refer to the contents of the post sent last Saturday regarding a possible Arctic incursion. They expect a rather complicated set up over the British Isles over this coming weekend. There is a fair amount uncertainty how far the rain will now move north into the British Isles. Their own charts show limited progress. I asked about their previous thoughts about heading towards an Arctic incursion to break the impass. Their own models develops a active and pronounced Polar Front to move through much of NW Europe followed by Arctic sourced airmass ,especially in the British Isles by day 10. Hope they are correct for you many cold fans on here. Meanwhile mild and slushY here in the Eastern Alps, not very nice. C
  3. 26 likes
    Well if that's what everyone wants here I don't see a lot of point in anyone who finds this totally boring and pointless posting in this thread. I personally find day to day meteorology interesting enough
  4. 22 likes
    It's all looking very interesting towards month end wrt to a pattern change. Suggestions of a northerly have been showing up on a few runs. I thought maybe a short lived one at first as the trop. vortex moved across towards Siberia with Atlantic ridging moving in after. Now though with continuing wave attacks on the vortex from both sides we are seeing a building trend for Greenland blocking later on. This along with the Siberian placement of the pv promises a greater chance of a more notable cold outbreak. Some interesting outputs coming out now that's for sure.
  5. 20 likes
    ECM building heights towards Greenland..... Check. The vortex being kept well away from Canada.... Check. In the words of Paul Daniels.... Your gonna like it.... Not alot..... Well me likes.... Check.. Time for a Boom..... Check, and checkmate...
  6. 19 likes
    That’s a very strong GH positive anomaly. The persistence of heights in this area has been noted today. Many on here would be pretty happy at this shape for January...snowpers cross fingers!
  7. 19 likes
    SSW in Dec as a whole I think could be considered rare given that is the canonical Vortex Intensification period, happy to be challenged on that view however.. I think without pulling out any papers that statistically January is your go to month for SSW with December being very much the exception, still gobsmacked by the EC Seasonal update to be honest - the plot for December shows an SSW with the Ensembles posted earlier showing the cluster heading that way. Then, January plot is also a torched vortex, if that came to pass then we are in for a ride this winter. What is also interesting is that this November feels like a throw back to when Novembers featured Canadian Warmings back at the start of the 80s, given last November saw considered action also, just a few years ago we were wondering about whether Canadian warmings were actually worthy of classification, or a nuance of the early satellite era capturing more detail and then requiring classification of a kind. Rambling now... onwards and upwards with the wave breaking !
  8. 18 likes
    Morning all, certainly the pick of the day chart is from GEM at day 9. This model shows the best and quickest route for an Arctic invasion into the British Isles as shown by the advancing 528 dam line. The 500m heights and 300mb flow charts also develop a nice Mid- Atlantic Omega shape. Perfect you may ask, but as always never an easy way for direct cold to sweep its way through the whole of the British Isles as highlighted by the bigger main models this morning. Possibly, the UKMO at 144t seems closest to the GEM run at that time ,however, the Greenland heights not as pronounced. Maybe a few more runs to firm up yet but NE Britains at least looks in a better position for some cold and snow by day 10. I will next get an up -date from the team over here tomorrow morning and report back, hopefully with good news for you many cold lovers. C
  9. 17 likes
    Morning. Using the Gfs and Gem mainly for this update.. So a snapshot below 3 timestamps.. GFS for Friday.. Sunday 24th.. Tuesday 26th.. Friday 29th.. Finally 1st December unreliable time frame but shows a classic vigorous low pressure system pushing quickly northeast across the north Atlantic grazing Scotland and sending an active cold front towards the UK with gales for the far northwest of Scotland and Northern Ireland.. An impressive Wind gust chart.. Now the Gem.. Friday 22nd.. Sunday 24th.. Sunday evening.. Tuesday 26th.. Friday 29th.. If we blend Ecmwf the Gem and Gfs average output together this is the synoptics shown.. Monday 25th.. Friday 29th.. Good agreement for southerly tracking low pressure systems bringing plenty of rain with a risk.. only a risk at this stage of a particular spell of very strong winds for more southern areas towards the end of the month but uncertainty as expected.. Higher pressure towards Greenland and a displaced Azores high keep the unsettled conditions locked further south than would typically be expected. So Gfs for the next few days out to around a week in more detail.. Continuing drier than recently for most parts of the UK the exception being the far southwest of England and Wales with rain effecting here and perhaps fringing into Scotland later today for a time with a frontal system stalled out to the far west this is expected to push back further west into Ireland by tomorrow evening as high pressure over the continent exerts more influence.. What this does is strengthen southerly winds.. This evening and tomorrow.. Thursday winds turn more to the southeast as the rain out west pushes slowly northeast later in the day with the blocking high to the east of the UK allowing this rain to make more progress. dry to start though for northern and Eastern areas.. Into Friday the band of rain becomes confined to Scotland and northeast England elsewhere turning mostly dry with sunny spells and milder than recently as winds blow from the south the winds then start to turn to the southeast again as the centre of low pressure slips southeast as it isn't able to push into the north sea and fills because of the blocking high out east still has enough of an influence to deflect this to the south like I mentioned..what this process does do is push an area of rain back northwest to southwest England later in the day.. Friday morning and Friday night.. Saturday morning more rain pushes up from the south giving a very wet day to England and Wales drier for Scotland and Northern Ireland for a time.. Saturday night the rain becomes confined to Eastern Scotland turning dry elsewhere.. The centre of low pressure fills to the south as shown below.. Sunday night into Monday morning on the image below a very active frontal band of rain pushes into much of the west of the UK the stubborn high pressure to the east of the UK has now eased away to allow this rain to push in with more momentum.. some of this rain shown to be very heavy particularly for the southwest of England even torrential locally and this then pushes fairly quickly northeast giving a very wet start to Monday windy too with this rain but then it turns much drier from the west with only a few showers still mild.. 25th.. Wind gusts.. Staying unsettled into next week potentially very windy for southern England during the middle of next week with yet more rain but drier spells too staying mild.. Remember this is just a snapshot of what the Gfs is showing the very wet conditions are likely but detail especially for next week is subject to change and shouldn't be taken too literally but it gives you a general idea of what conditions to expect.. 5 day maximum and minimum temperature expected over the next 5 days.. Mild by day and milder at night too after tonight's cold night which is responsible for why the 5 day minimum temperature is showing as low as near or around freezing and below for Scotland.
  10. 16 likes
  11. 16 likes
    How about this to wake up to. Best warming in the strat yet,
  12. 14 likes
    The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Area of rain, currently aligned across the north of England is at last easing and starting to fragment and this will continue through the day, perhaps even giving some sunny interval by the afternoon. But showers will continue to feed into north easterly and westerly coastal regions as well as northern Scotland. By late afternoon more persistent rain will effect the south east courtesy of a shallow low This rain will track north west though this evening and overnight but remaining clear over N. Ireland and Scotland with a frost by morning Still some patchy rain around on Saturday, mainly in southern Scotland and northern England but generally a better day with sunny intervals but an occlusion is slowly approaching Ireland. Perhaps a tad warmer By Sunday another intense extra tropical cyclone is tracking towards Greenland promoting some downstream ridging resulting in pretty static showery day over the UK On Monday the low is filling and moving east across the Atlantic and after early patchy rain in the south east it will be a sunny and cold day in the UK after a widespread frost. By Tuesday the filling and complex low is dominating the area west/south west of the UK and by late afternoon the associated occlusion will bring heavy rain to N. Ireland and the south west. Elsewhere it will be generally sunny but cold after a widespread early frost
  13. 13 likes
    its 'scriceland' ………….. i know cos i think i invented it ! the 'r' is v important not to be confused with Griceland sadly, the lack of knowledge around these geographical terms is telling ……. we rarely get the opportunity to use them for people to be aware of them !!!! everyone knows what a festering Bartlett is!
  14. 12 likes
    Some really great photographs in here, thank you,keep them coming
  15. 11 likes
    Morning everyone. So the GFS Ecm and Gem are all still showing unsettled conditions for atleast a week although details are different as you would expect the snapshots below.. Gem.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. GFS.. 24th.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. 1st December.. Unsettled and quite mild for the most part with high pressure continuing to influence close to Greenland keeping areas of low pressure on a more southerly track with a northerly wind shown for the latter stages of the Gfs and Gem. A bit more detail using the Gfs.. Spells of rain pushing northeast through the latter stages of today and into tonight fairly heavy in a few places but clearing north to leave drier conditions for the beginning of tomorrow excluding the southwest of England and Wales also milder than recent nights with winds blowing from the south or south east.. Rain becomes persistent for the south west tomorrow as well as parts of wales as the frontal system pivots.. Tomorrow night into much of Saturday a spell of heavy rain pushes more widely across the UK clearing southern areas later in the day. Sunday is looking mostly dry for most but a small area of rain over central areas for a time according to this Gfs update with some rain continuing for Scotland elsewhere some sunshine. Sunday/Monday more heavy rain pushes into the west during Sunday night.. This then pushes eastward it may take longer to clear for central and Eastern parts until later on Monday. Winds westerly. The centre of low pressure responsible for the rain on Monday then drifts through Scotland during Monday night into early Tuesday morning giving spells of rain to northern England but also rather windy for southern areas for a time.. Tuesday night into Wednesday heavy rain pushing northeast for most areas.. Then another low pressure system is shown for Friday 29th night into Saturday 30th morning giving strong winds and heavy rain.. Remember this is just a snapshot details will change as you'd expect but a very unsettled week next week is on the cards with a lengthy period of rain again. An animation of the weather for the next 10 days.. Here's an animation of the 10 day accumulated rainfall from this latest GFS.. Significant rainfall for Western areas with over 100mm for some much drier in comparison for east anglia and the southeast though. The area of the most rain will likely change but here is what it's showing atm.. GFS ensembles continuing to show a lot of scatter with upper air temperatures towards the end of the update indicating continued uncertainty. A lot of rainfall still shown for next week and perhaps beyond..
  16. 11 likes
    EC ends with a possible snow storm, somewhere!!
  17. 11 likes
    6Z as others have posted, does provide a serious warming i the strat .. I will happily endure a few more weeks of waterboarding if we hit the jackpot later on..
  18. 11 likes
    The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean is mild & unsettled which it has been for days..seriously, I think cold expectations are too high and we need a reality check!!
  19. 10 likes
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to trend colder from the north in the mid / longer term for more and more of the uk which is in line with the operational, there are certainly encouraging signs across the models today for a wintry early december, at least for the north and I'm cautiously optimistic as things stand!!
  20. 10 likes
    In short I don't think so, but the situation is now looking more complicated than as has been commented on in the last couple of weeks or so, and that is entirely down to the progged SSW, now a real probability and in sight, the run up to it, and what happens afterwards. Today's charts from stratobserve are interesting, note the caveat these are based on the GFS 0z and the 0z ensemble suites. Zonal winds first: Now a few members showing a reversal by the end, so worth a look at the ellipses for the GEFS at T384: Attention is drawn to P2 and P7 that show a reversal, and it is by way of a displacement. For the op run T384, the strat vortex seems to be quite twisted here, yellow at the top, and orange at the bottom (150 hPa): Finally, the NAM plot: This doesn't show the strat and trop vortexes connecting to me, more becoming disconnected in the opposite way! Blues up top, and reds down below, but to follow would be a downwelling if this SSW did happen, so then they would couple but likely in a good way! Be an interesting watch this one...
  21. 10 likes
    An enjoyable day spent hiking around the Coreen hills. Picture, I think, is from Black Hill looking west towards the eastern cairngorms. A chilly day with temperatures around 0C, although noticeably warmer at the peaks.
  22. 9 likes
    Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places - according the the ECM anyway
  23. 9 likes
  24. 9 likes
    The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight A complex, negatively tilted trough, is dominating the eastern Atlantic and the associated slowly pivoting front has already brought some rain into the far south west and this will move slowly north east through the day to cover an area mid Wales > Portsmouth. There will be some heavy pulses in this. Elsewhere generally quite cloudy ad filling a tad chilly in the brisk south east wind Tonight the front will continue to pivot as the rain tracks slowly north east with perhaps some heavier bursts in the south west, courtesy of a following trough. Remaining generally cloudy with perhaps some breaks in the north west The occlusion will continue to travel north through Friday, thus cloudy with outbreaks of rain in many areas, with again the north west getting the best of the weather. But whilst all this has been going on a wave has developed in the southern quadrant of the trough and is 979mb north of Coruna at midday and a stray occlusion associated with this may well bring some heavier rain to the south west. Warmer than of late Over Friday night and through Saturday the low and associated fronts track north into the Channel and the UK, thus a wet and windy day in many areas. But to the to the west further troughs are tracking east across the Atlantic as high pressure starts to build over southern Greenland Continuing unsettled with showery rain overnight but the first trough tracking east has arrived on the scene and there is a vigorous surface low 985mb south west of Ireland by midday Sunday and heavy rain will sweep across western regions through the afternoon and evening accompanied by strong winds The low then drifts north through Monday as the energy hits the block but the movement of the occlusion north will be accompanied by a band of heavy rain Warmer than of late
  25. 9 likes
    Hi everyone. I'm back from my summer hibernation lovely walk this morning in Dunstable Downs. Everything is frozen and can see some fog in the valleys. My best time of the year!
  26. 9 likes
    Has actually turned to snow here in Lux. Wet snow and no chance of it accumulating but at least I've seen my first falling flakes
  27. 8 likes
    Love the forum, the realists, the fantasy islanders, the lot. The only thing that gets me down is zonality at 300 hours verifying and winter wonderland failing at 36 hours. No forum member is to blame for that though. It’s just these weird little islands we call home.
  28. 8 likes
    Sun peaking over the local hills, its going to be a cracking day!
  29. 8 likes
    All OK if it stays there mate! This model watching is all getting quite exhausting and I've yet to see a snowflake, although some close by did last week, so where are we in ten days time? Well the models say this, ECM, GEM and GFS: The uncertainty is huge isn't it, but perhaps the least uncertain part of it is the location of the trop vortex. So as far as the hunt for cold is concerned, which doesn't have it's own thread so I'll use this one, we currently have two irons in the fire, a meridional tropospheric pattern that could, possibly at quite short notice, morph into a UK cold/snow scenario, or a route to an early SSW which would lead to a lottery that we hold two thirds of the tickets for. We will see...
  30. 8 likes
    Strat warming getting stronger by the run white Christmas anyone.
  31. 8 likes
    Changes to this current 500 hPa pattern look like being slow at the moment with the Atlantic weather coming up against the Sceuro block and disrupting over the UK causing all the rain and unsettled conditions.It seems never ending! Just looking further ahead and the gfs ens model(taken from the 00z run) shows no real change expected up to day 10 but beyond that signs of things evolving to the east as the ens mean anomalies are starting to show the eastern block fading from days 11-15. For comparison days 6-10 days 11-15 Probably little difference for us at the surface with still broadly a westerly setup on a weakish jet flow and temperatures around or just below normal. We could see lows heading further east if this pattern change comes about and this would open the opportunity for some colder air from the north or north west if low pressure or troughing develops further east over Scandinavia later on.Just something to look out for if cold is your thing. Certainly for the time being the Atlantic jet continues to remain underpar and split so no sign yet of roaring south westerlies heading this way.
  32. 7 likes
    -7c to start the day, max of -1.8c, -7c again and heading down, coldest day so far
  33. 7 likes
  34. 7 likes
    According to the gfs major troughs continue to track across the Atlantic during the next five days until they hit the buffers but the process does, as usual, promote down stream ridging which results in a build up of pressure in southern Greenland;and that links to the strong European ridge Thus continuing unsettled and quite windy at times but not as cold as of late
  35. 7 likes
    Absolutely agree Blast. What people need to understand is that cycles 21 and 22 where 2 of the most active probably since the medieval warm period and cycle 23 started the process we are in. It is no coincidence that the ozone hole and the whole issue of warming from the late 60's occurred during cycle 21/22. I believe we are in for a period of Dalton winters over the coming 5 years. I also believe the rainfall etc is due to the cloud seeding effect of cosmic rays which could therefore increase snowfall in winter. The 15/20 years are going to change how we understand the influencers on climatic patterns and actually realise the strength of the solar cycles is what determines the deviation from what may be classed as normal
  36. 7 likes
    18z says no to phasing the lows. This really is not your standard Northern Hemisphere . Whether we end up with a proper cold spell by the end of the year or not, this will continue to be fascinating to see this continue to evolve over the coming weeks
  37. 6 likes
    Last year the Spanish met were bang on the money with their winter forecast of drier than average winter..
  38. 6 likes
    Short gefs ens... there is quiet a few heading for that -5 uppers come the end of the month.
  39. 6 likes
    Worth noting that while individual model runs ebb and flow re the arrival of winter proper on the day to day det runs, that Marco Petagna's tweet yesterday suggests that longer term the Meto are keeping a watch on possible SSW down the line as suggested by some models.
  40. 6 likes
    Not very helpful for those trying to learn!..you could have said it's unsettled with low pressure (s) in control and temperatures higher than recently, closer to average!
  41. 6 likes
    Think it is a cormorant? Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) | Scottish Wildlife Trust SCOTTISHWILDLIFETRUST.ORG.UK Large, predominantly black in colour (at least from afar), and with a distinctive spread winged stance, cormorants are one of the most conspicuous birds both at the Basin and along …
  42. 6 likes
    No significant changes with ext EPS this morning Salient points Vortex north Russia with trough extensions to north of the UK and north Canada with the latter still adjacent to the Greenland ridge, Still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of this across the Atlantic via an anomalously negative trough mid Atlantic to the UK The block in the east now eroded This indicates unsettled with temps a tad above average
  43. 6 likes
    There is no ssw on the gfs 12z ruN Zonal wind is 18m/s by day 16 Closest point to a reversal approx 7hpa 50N But gefs shows mean speed at only 5m/s by day 16
  44. 6 likes
    JFF but proper battleground snow event on the 18z cold air coming south and rain coming north . Up north will be liking this run. And the strat warming staring under T300 now
  45. 6 likes
    Evening all Well, it's still a couple of months before I get interested in the winter model output so just an observation or two. Back in the spring of 2013, the GFS would constantly show FI with milder "zonal" conditions returning to break the cold spell but they didn't verify for weeks. Now we are seeing a lot of output (12Z Control) showing a more conventional zonal aspect returning in far FI but the 12Z OP is much less certain tonight. GEM and ECM out to T+240 keep the southerly tracking jet in play as well. I don't know and the model output reflects a lack of a clear signal. I follow the Stratosphere thread as a novice and am in awe of the knowledge of many on there - I fear a displacement from the Eurasian side will simply knock the PV back to Canada and fire up a 10-14 day Atlantic spell. As others have said, keeping the PV over Siberia (and the trop-strat disconnect) helps those looking for cold. Would the displaced PV be weak enough to encourage Scandinavian HP?
  46. 6 likes
    The Gfs 6z operational doesn't look quite as mild and it does become more settled for a time late november but it's a predominantly unsettled run and there's no sign of anything wintry.
  47. 6 likes
    The ext EPS pretty much in the same ball park as the GEFS so I will not repeat the spiel
  48. 5 likes
    I know mate frustrating... Just remember dont always be suckered in the GFS optical illusion.... Its backtracked so far to the UKMO already...
  49. 5 likes
    I wouldn't worry to much past 144hr on the GFS this is the point were models are starting to firm up 144hr. PS maybe have a wee sneak peek at the strat warming in the GFS FI.
  50. 5 likes
    Although potential and realization are two entirely different things, today's GFS 12Z operational ends with plenty of the former. Now that mainland Europe looks to be, at last, showing signs of a cool-down...?
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