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I just wondered if anyone else has encountered the same problem that I’m having. As some of you may know, I returned from Norway on Tuesday after an incredible fortnight. Everything there was so real: 2 metre lying snow, blizzards, crystal clear skies, northern lights, low temps etc. Now I find that every day I’m staring at the UK model outputs run after run and I just can’t get excited by it any more. I mean, it’s all so inconsequential. So ‘meh.’ There’s just nothing really about UK weather that’s interesting bar the very occasional moment like a deep storm or a heatwave. Winters are as bland as blaaaah-bland can be. I’m not knocking this country, at least I don’t think I am, but when you come back from somewhere where the weather is so real it just makes all this seem like nonsense. I really really hope this won’t get deleted because it is about the model outputs. Maybe it might help us all to stop having squabbles about this or that model run when, really, nothing happens here of any great consequence (any more). xx18 points
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Not seeing this phantom U.K. high coming to anything. The last 9 months have seen the U.K. become a beacon of low pressure, rain and gloom. The eps and geps have sacked off any hopes of a meaningful pressure rise. Even a split ssw and high amp mjo into the pacific doesn’t matter anymore. Im sure it’ll flip eventually, but this is one of my least favourite periods of weather. Always the promise of interesting, settled or cold weather but the reality has been utterly grim.18 points
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Things shaping up a little bit better now. Successive waves of building heights around the Azores are gaining a modicum of momentum in the models. As I alluded to a few days ago, there’s a practice run this coming weekend, here on the 0z EPS at day 4. It’s a shallow ridge, giving just a bit of a break before the flow from the southwest resumes, but a pleasant Sunday afternoon over England in particular with temperatures up to 15 degrees on the op. What is interesting from there is that though the Atlantic trough does make very slow eastward headway to be hanging down through the UK and Ireland by day 8, it weakens considerably against the European heights. This weakening of the trough means that the next wave of Azores heights is able to line up a better effort towards the weekend after next as the trough gets shunted east and squeezed out. This build looks to be getting its act together by around day 10. The 0z EPS / ECM mean shows a solid build in heights nicely oriented northeastwards in the direction of the UK and Ireland. So slowly gaining Azores momentum. What we’d perhaps expect this time of year. It’s not looking like sustained dry spells by any means, more like 2-3 day spells of drier, more settled weather between slow moving troughs, but I’m alright with it, as long as we get the breaks. When it rains, I can wear a coat. There’s always a lot of interest in the potential for wintry weather and at the other extreme, summer heatwaves. But spring, with its better light and resurgence of nature, though often under-rated, can be a lovely time of the year. To make the most of it, I’ll probably be posting a good deal less, so have a good few weeks.18 points
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Here at day 5 on the 12z GEFS, as we’ve seen several times during the last few months, the hemispheric profile achieves a striking north-south orientation of heights, the PV with its core over Siberia coordinating a Scandinavian trough, which combined with cross-polar heights at the merging of Alaskan and Atlantic ridges, delivers us a handsome northerly flow. But as during the winter, it’s brief. The pattern has no hold. By day 10, the PV relaxes, the Siberian core leaks out west again towards northern Greenland, so the pattern falls lateral again and the reinforcement of the Greenland trough drops a low pressure southeast out of Greenland. The Alaskan heights are squeezed out, and there is a complete reversal over the Atlantic - with a 40+ dam drop in heights over 5 days to the west of the UK and Ireland, we’ve swiftly lost the Atlantic ridge and we’re back into an Atlantic cyclonic pattern heading into Easter. And as during the winter, once it’s set up, this pattern is not brief. By day 15, there are heights to the north but the PV is lateral, and still very much on our side of the pole, preventing a full build, so instead, we get a southerly tracking jet stream brewing up systems carrying a lot of moisture running up from the southwest, through the corridor paradoxically being held in place by the northern heights. It’s as we were then, seemingly too far south for the northern heights to bring us blocked cold, and too far north for the southern heights to send us a proper block, so we get a fleeting Atlantic ridge that can’t form a robust block with the heights to the north, because they themselves lack sufficient traction, followed by the PV and shallow heights to their south then going lateral and serving us up another extended run off the Atlantic. Fair enough to point out that is what we would expect for a temperate Atlantic climate but the unrelenting nature of never more than a few days with any other option on the table, at the moment at least, seems quite grimly exceptional.15 points
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severe snowstorm What a whistle and what a beast. Shot in b & w apparently.9 points
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Ominous signals from the GFS for easter, yes a long way off, but it has held firm on the idea of blocking to our north and north east, and a deep slow moving cyclonic trough to our SW, held in situ by the heights to our north. The outcome a decidedly unsettled Easter, none too mild either, quite cold in the north. In the near timeframe, all models in agreement of a change by Friday with the trough finally shifting east allowing a colder but more importantly sunnier polar airstream to take hold and drier too. Im fed up of the mild south westerly airstream gunk prevailing right now and am happy to see such a prospect on the horizon simply as I am sun starved after nearing on 5 months of gloom - it takes its toll at this of time, people's energy reaches an all time annual low..9 points
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Mmm a mostly cloudy day, bright spells brief, alot of low cloud and heavy drizzle, capping off a thoroughly dull week. Looking forward to the polar air arrival on Friday to kick away the moist tropical maritime airstream set to last until then, I'll say it again the SW airstream is my least favourite, and I don't care it brings mild/very mild temps, rather have dry sunny weather. Fed up of it!9 points
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10 years today, I recorded my first ever timelapse, that of a setting sun.9 points
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Convective Outlook️ A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms could form in areas of cloud clearance on Friday. With 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE possible in areas aiding sporadic lightning. The two lines most likely appear to be forecasted roughly from the SW ENE-wards towards Essex and perhaps parts of Suffolk and another one likely weaker from south Wales towards north eastern parts of England. Both of these should move slightly SSE after forming in the afternoon and fade into the evening having formed along wind convergence zones forcing PV lobes in those 2 areas it appears, the southern mode having more energy to work with. Cloud coverage and saturation appears to be quite high in most areas limiting the lightning potential of showers and how many showers form. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in arwas may help with that but not much. Some small hail is possible because of the energy but most of it is held in the low-levels. Weak shearing limits that again.9 points
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I see the GFS is up to its usual deceitfulness teasing us with the mirage of a 5+ day dry spell in about a week's time yet again in the 6Z... I will assume that it will switch to conveyor-belt-of-Atlantic-lows as we get closer to the time But I will erect a small shrine to the Azores High in my living room to try and manifest its arrival as suggested by it, so that the ground can finally dry out for the first time in 6 months and I can regain the will to live/step outside9 points
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Just seen this so just thought I'd pop in. We have an 11 year old cat called Betty, I work from home and she follows me around like a sheep. I will be absolutely devastated when she goes but hopefully not for a long time yet! I treat her just as good as any family member, in fact she runs the bloody house lol! 21 & 23 years is bloody great lads, they must have been well looked after. Sorry for your loss, some people say 'it's only a cat or only a dog', I have no time for non animal lovers, domestic pets are very must part of any family. Anyways, back into hibernation.9 points
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itsnowjoke sorry to read your post, a pet is very much part of the family it's heartbreaking when we have to say goodbye. 23 years is some good going, your cat was well loved and cared for.9 points
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Hi sorry not been on much just lost our cat of 23 years yesterday morning So not really interested in the weather in the slightest all looks dark to me and my family at the moment so sorry for the lack of posts but we are struggling at the moment grief is terrible being a person or an animal x9 points
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Yip, can confirm. Full waterproofs for the dog walk this morning. Garden flooded again. The dry spell has been undone. Might even have to turn my office light back on at this rate. Grim.9 points
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Overall very happy with the above post. Starting with the modelled movement of the Tropospheric Vortex we can watch as it moves into a position between the Greenland and Kara seas generally over the next week or so. Very happy with the overall timing as this storm system merges with the Atlantic troughing which feeds into the Tropospheric Vortex as discussed prior. This pattern of cyclonic systems running to the North Northwest of the UK and Ireland is feedback from recent MJO progression particularly February phases 1 through 2 with good representation including the Tropospheric Vortex positioning. Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels. Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup. Further nice temperature representation particularly in Australia, South America and USA + Canada. We're really looking at the feedback of the above really coming to the fore in particular from Mid March - 15th which becomes most noteable to begin with across Canada as the persistent blocking patterns which have - are a common El Ninò characteristic begin to transition as troughing begins to form into Canada. From the 15th there are a couple of major developments as discussed above. The Canadian Blocking starts to transition more into that of a trough dominated pattern. The increasingly strengthening high develops from Africa into Europe. As the trough developments begin over Canada this will force the blocking to weaken overall at this stage with signs of the cut off high developments I spoke of currently looking likely somewhere between Greenland and Canada with Baffin Bay a reasonable shout. The feedback as we begin to move at a continuous high amplitude across the Maritimes see my post here for further info This feedback is already becoming noticeable within the models with phase 4 in March having tendency of high pressure building in the Atlantic possibly extending toward the Canadian Maritimes with scope for ridging up into Greenland and a potentially stormy setup with troughing around the UK. Thanks for reading. KW9 points
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Not particularly a train enthusiast but it’s not every day that you come out of Rawtenstall retail park as A4 Pacific Sir Nigel Gresley is slowly heading into the station Just a shame that my phone was in my pocket but a lot of cameras were in action. weatherwise, it’s tuned into a lovely sunny and mild spring afternoon.8 points
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Hi, just logged in and found I have my 15 year in badge, pity I can’t wear it…and it’s still raining ️8 points
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damianslaw I. would not pay any attention to D10 charts as they have been worthless about pressure rises all this Winter, and 9 out of 10 times are outliers. Looking at the EC and GFS means, this is another case in point: Both are clear outliers, especially the GFS. We would need 4-5 consistent runs showing this before it would be worth taking it seriously, as these random op runs showing colder charts have been popping up regularly for the last few weeks without one verifying. The GEFS mean has been consistently good this year, and there is no change here; more of the same. D8-16:8 points
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Had Worse oh it’s so sad isn’t it can’t function right now was a very tricky ending not the one I was hoping for. people saying to me she died of old age well I guess in a way but it was a growth in her brain which sadly got to her and made her deaf and blind and confused over the last past few months which they though was old age and dementia but it wasn’t it was a growth that took her which I didn’t know till the day otherwise she’d be still here causing havoc being the boss ….. I currently have one depressed doggy thanks for all your kind messages x Day 10 Scuba steve Rush2019 thanks8 points
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8 points
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A sunless miserable day here in the Austrian Alps . Snowfall above 1200m. Drizzle and rain in the valley with mild conditions persistent. Crap winter really over here , March following the pattern of the warmest February ever in Austria with temps well above normal values. However, we do see the sunshine from time to time. Looking at your sunshine totals in the Northwest of England , almost non existent so far this year . Is it really that bad ? My farmer friend up near Skipton say its permanently wet and cloudy but frost free for the most part. In fact he also tells me he has never seen the ground so sodden. C8 points
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Torrential rain still ongoing here since I woke up at 6am. Fields, ground, rivers etc must be at capacity now. (Numerous flood warnings out) We really need a dry, hot summer to sort this… Farmer back of my house says it’s worse it’s been since ‘2014’8 points
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I think it is more down to the higher SSTs in the Atlantic hampering the building of high pressure in the specific areas that we need it to get proper cold into this country, which is climate change driven. We are simply more susceptible to the effects of Climate Change than many other areas of the world due to our location. I don't see how there could be any correlation between Nuclear testing and the weather as forces in play weather wise are far greater than could be influenced by that.8 points
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Too far to be sure what Easter will bring but the ECMWF is a fairly good indicator of both upper air and surface along with 850 temperatures. It only goes out to Maundy Thursday but not a bad idea to follow each subsequent update from now And of course the 500 mb NOAA Anomaly charts the 6-10 out to the same day and the 8-14 over the Easter weekend. This just for an idea of where the main upper air features look like being. It does, at the moment look like an upper trough will be close to the UK with the 500 flow coming from just north of west. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Time will tell, as always, the accuracy of the above charts7 points
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Hi all, I've found my health starts to decrease in the winter months. During the summer with long evenings and pleasant temperatures I am extremely active, running most nights and spending a lot of time outdoors. I eat better and sunlight really does improve my mood. I'm more productive at work, even on hot and humid days. I'm better able to handle stress as I have more opportunities to go on long runs (which substantially improve my mental health). I get sick way less often and there is more colour everywhere, from bright greens to bright blues and everything in between. This past winter has been particularly tough for me. The ground is sodden, which makes trail runs far more difficult. The wind, the rain and the darkness after work really make exercise outdoors more difficult. The lack of sun, where I literally need to self medicate with vitamin D to avoid deficiencies. The grey colour scheme to everything outside. I know some people love this time of year, but it personally crushes my soul. I am hoping to move abroad to do postdoctoral work after my postgraduate degree. It doesn't even need to be that warm in winter, just less wet and dark. There is a lot of work in my field of research in San Diego - 20C winters and 26C summers. That's my kind of climate!7 points
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Morning, Just a quick one today, must of been half asleep when I typed this part there are north/northeast winds albeit brief along with colder temperatures, though nothing unusual with a few wintry showers in the north/northeast possible, especially on high ground. The latter frames of the models recently are typical of the extensive northern blocking that is set to build and dominate further, with any brief spells of drier weather most likely in the north/northwest during Easter and indeed early April as said previously, though unsettled is the main theme for the UK as a whole, cool for the time of year out of lengthy sunshine in the north with wintry showers a continued possibility but quite typical for the time of year, very unsettled conditions still more likely to move in from our south/southwest over Easter and beyond for southern and western parts in particular, only a remote chance of any snow here, just potentially again very wet with slow moving fronts, northeast/easterly winds especially in the north a high likelihood, more variable/southwest/southeasterly for the southern part of England, potentially some thunderstorms in the far south. Temperatures around or slightly below average overall in the south is favoured but could see slightly warmer air clipping the east/southeast for the Easter Period, this is a very consistent possibility in my recent posts but precise timeframes being different, but with how unsettled it’s likely to be, it may not be of much benefit with a large amount of cloud possible. Gfs update this morning seems to show the high to our north slightly too east, further west is more likely. Overall it’s a similar outlook to the one I did about a week ago. After first week of April there maybe a slightly increased chance of lengthier drier conditions developing further for the UK although temperatures may not be particularly impressive from neither a cold/warm point of view, but sunshine totals may be somewhat above average. Have a good day.7 points
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Undoubtedly the first day of the year that's felt warm. A coat was definitely not required early afternoon in the March sunshine. A wander into town for a couple of drinks and a look at our revamped town hall. Incredible work done to the inside and a couple more months to go on the outside. One of the region's, if not the country's, most impressive civic buildings.7 points
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Another low grey cloudy sky... will it brighten. Barely a couple hours of sunshine all week.7 points
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The trough drops just to our east as we head into next weekend the one to follow looks like it has our name on it (not certain) and the one beyond that seems to be more likely to be to our west. There looks to be a retrogressive signal on this pattern with heights building over scandi and e europe. I wonder if we might see the second trough back a bit further west over the next few days modelling? If this does verify then it offers the possibility of some warmth towards month end and the Easter weekend.7 points
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Morning. A quick paddle up the garden, threw some meal worms and sunflower seeds at the bird table and ran back. It's tipping down. 11.4°C. Tut.7 points
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General gloom of the day added to by Crewe's failure to win at MK Dons, their 3rd defeat in four games and making their quest for automatic promotion from L2 less likely by the day. Two winnable home games to come and a few days of sun would do nicely, thank you.7 points
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A bit of a strange day weather wise, foggy start quickly turned into a lovely sunny morning and a lovely drive up the M6 to Morecambe. sunny while we were looking at caravans but it quickly clouded over as we came back down home. rain then on the way to, during and after the football. another interesting thing was that, thanks to the inability whoever set some temporary lights, we got from the top side of Morecambe to within 2 miles of home in the same time as we did the last 2 miles and then after straight in and out only just made the match. biggest surprise of the day though was that Burnley actually won7 points
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With half the month gone the sunshine total now stands at 13.2 hrs, that's 29% of the average for the first half of March and 8.7 hrs less than the first half of last March which ended up being the second dullest on record.7 points
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No evidence of any frost first thing, min 0°C. Oooh tis beautiful currently, puts me in a right smiley mood. Can feel the warmth of the sun through the windows as I watched the ever becoming busy birds swoop for their meal worms. Enjoy while it beams. @iand61 Enjoy your caravan mooching, I would love a weekend bolthole if ever the opportunity arose. I'm looking forward to May, it's a beautiful month. April promises proper spring with hopefully a taste of the first good rumble of thunder. Enjoy the sun, don't look at the radar.7 points
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tricol Its a month I never rate and thankful out of the way, dips its toes in and out of winter and spring, can never make up its mind, whereas April though the most varied month, has a more definate Spring feel to it, combined with all the new growth, it feels so very different. Im the same with September and October, September I find very frustrating..7 points
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A change in the ECM and UKMO output for next weekend at least, the azores high sitting out west with a deep trough pushing east pulling in a chilly northerly, GFS heads the same way, then develops extensive northern blocking. They must be responding to some new signal, when you see abrupt changes arising in the 6-7 day timeframe it does suggest 'new developments', perhaps more varied fayre for the latter part of the month, compared to the very generous very mild albeit dull wet big middle..7 points
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Let's start a the very beginning a very good place to start....both gfs and ecm trend for higher pressure to start moving in by about Tuesday/Wednesday next week. I'm not bothered about cold or even hot ,just want some sunshine and dry weather ,and the sunshine this time of year has some umph to it. Let's hope it's the beginning of the end of the monsoon which has haunted us for the past 9 months ......7 points
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tricol The bbc forecasts and met office forecasts for here rest of the week show a few hours of sunny spells Saturday only, meaning we might only receive 3 hours or so total sun all week, abysmal and why I detest SW airstreams, even in summer here they just bring cloud or drizzle/rain.7 points
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itsnowjoke Sorry to hear about your cat ,a very long life well lived no doubt,it’s hard when furbuddies go over the rainbow bridge7 points
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After yesterday's non descriptness, today has produced persistant light drizzle, epitome of tedium. The week as a whole set poor for sunshine, no springlike feeling. Its all very uninspiring.7 points
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Absolutey depressing weather now. Wet and dull winter overall and not particularly mild feeling at all. We need a good stretch of warm sunshine now not just for moods and activities but for my Garden! This is the first time the Brick walls fences, paths in the back have all gone green with Algae! Got a lot of Jet washing coming up.7 points
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Hands up...who is fed up with this rain???..another washout this morning...as for the sun...l presume its still there...somewhere...7 points
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Pouring rain earlier but already signs of it easing and brightening up. I hope so anyway as the garden and patio are flooded once again.7 points
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I returned yesterday evening from beautiful Norway. I was in the arctic circle for four nights and saw the aurora on all four nights. Incredibly fortunate with the weather. Norway is expensive but you can mitigate that if you’re prepared to self-cater. I would recommend the Lofoten Islands as a great location for the northern lights. It’s FAR cheaper than Tromso. Svolvaer is quite a bustling port town but soooooooooo beautiful. I took the fast (3.5 hour) ferry back to Bodo for the experience and it was lovely on a calm day. The light up there is something else. I cannot recommend it enough if you get a chance to go.7 points