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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/06/21 in all areas

  1. Few images from around 1A.M yesterday morning from Minnis bay Kent looking towards Reculver Castle. I decided to stay put and see how things panned out as I've had a shot in mind for years but the storm decided otherwise so around 10:30PM I headed down to the coast in torrential rain and deep puddles, I was a bit restricted as I picked up a couple of friends, they'd never chased before, I rarely chase with others but it was great to get them their first Arcus and a decent lighting show, also managed to keep out of the rain mostly, also nice to give them a heads up on outflow and other things
    27 points
  2. We need another 24 hours with this in my opinion but here are some early thoughts. 7-9pm (16th June) Would expect Lightning to start being seen from the Dorset Coast eastwards to West Sussex always more active over the Sea, Inland areas of Hampshire and the M4 Corridoor looks likely to see Thundery Rain with better chances of Cgs with Eastward Extent 9pm to Midnight (16th June) Would expect to see areas like East Sussex, Kent, Surrey and Greater London to start getting in on the Action and again Lightning stronger on the eastward side of the Plume. 00-05z (17th June) Areas North
    26 points
  3. 24 points
  4. Some off the back of the Camera not edited yet. Great Storm Finally amazing Cgs
    21 points
  5. At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a
    21 points
  6. But the models are not sentient beings. They are designed to pick up signals via mathmatical equations such as the equations of motion etc. and then run them over time which, as we all know, becomes less reliable with the increasing time span as the 'signals' conflict; Which is why running backwards from day ten should always be a no. no. Similarly teleconnections, which are an ever improving and important tool in the medium and long term forecast armoury, should be used with caution, particularly when assessing limited areas such as the UK. For starters It is not always obvious which of the t
    20 points
  7. Fantastic watching this roll in, really came to life around 15 miles off shore
    20 points
  8. I'd like to make a short notice. PJB's post in UKWW "After a dry and settled start to the week, Models are trending towards change in the synoptic type through the 2nd half of next week. Models are in good agreement that a building low to mid level ridge will develop over the North Sea and into the near continent early next week. At the same time a fairly sharp longwave trough is likely to extend down into the Atlantic and move east towards the British Isles. Models have trended towards a slower advance or progression of this longwave trough into the UK and as it approaches Western
    18 points
  9. 17 points
  10. Do you prefer it when you are right in the path of it all, or would you prefer to view it from a distance? I prefer the latter t.b.h...esp if you could view something like this.. One of my own, taken from Selsey (what you could do with a Kent Clipper) Storm over NW London, from the I.O.W (Not Mine! I WISH!! : all credit to Island Visions Photography)
    17 points
  11. Once again UKV is wanting to make friends with a lot of us who are a tiny bit further west...
    17 points
  12. UKMO carries from this mornings run.. No sign of any green snot .. Lovely.
    15 points
  13. Plethora of lightning pics from my window earlier.
    15 points
  14. Listen guys, all I want is a decent July.. 🤔..yes I’ve skipped the rest of June... 🤔...woteva... pfft..all I want is a decent summer?...is that too much to ask for lord?...anyway, looking. 👀 at the GEFS 6z there are some good signs longer term..there’s some crap signs to but stuff that..look at the positives...maybe the lord won’t help..or can’t help?..but I’m gonna pray anyway! 🙏 🙏 😯 😉
    14 points
  15. Looking at the ECM 0z operational, it’s going to be a very warm / hot and increasingly humid week ahead for the s / se with a growing chance of a swathe of thundery showers / thunderstorms pushing north late Wednesday and into Thursday! 😯 🥵 ☀️ ⛈....the SE is truly blessed if you’re a heat fan... 🤔...actually you will need a fan! 😉
    14 points
  16. The Ukmo 12h shows warmth persisting across the SE even by next Friday?!...and before that it’s a very warm / hot / humid spell for the SE Quadrant.. 🤔 ...forgive me, I’ve been drinking cider...it gives me special powers..quite intoxicating actually. 😵 🥴 . 😉.. 🍻
    14 points
  17. And the warmth continues right into early July. I think we might even get off snot-free!🌞
    13 points
  18. Absolutely bummed about this picture. Tried to recover it but there was a Cg to the left of this picture which landed about 200 yards in front of me and screwed my F-Stop up and totally took me by surprise. Rustiness!!
    13 points
  19. Tell you what it certainly feels good here today and more akin to what we have stateside on a Storm day. Strong Warm Southerly wind and T/Td spreads that would suggest fireworks tonight. 82/61 at present which is pretty spectacular for the UK and would expect some readings this evening as cloud rolls on and humidity rises further to be around 79/64 even by that stage. I call that Fuel or Storm Food 😊😀 Also first signs of destabilisation with high level Cirrus appearing here now.
    13 points
  20. It is still not exactly clear what will happen with regards to Storms, but it is starting to look like two different storm potentials. One around 9pm to Midnight Wednesday for the very far south east and perhaps early hours of Thursday for the south, midlands running up to parts of the north west. Neither scenario looks like being surface based so more electrical than wet. There may be a point across the midlands around 8am where storms change to surface based at the leading edge of storms. Forecast SkewT's show very little convective energy so have to assume stor
    13 points
  21. Looks like the UKMO has gone absolutely bonkers again. Yes - that's the 22/23c isotherm getting into the SE. Pretty sure it showed something similar yesterday.
    13 points
  22. Well the UKMO is still very intent on bringing the plume back to the UK next weekend. The model has been infamous since January 2013 when it owned the other models at D5 on a split trough at leading to a blizzard. Might this be its summer equivalent? Would expect the ECM to follow very, very soon if it's right, though.
    13 points
  23. Earlier this evening At Firle Beacon. The mist Was sudden and intense, then the rain, and then the disorientation and some really close stuff was the last straw and I scarpered to try and escape the downpour
    12 points
  24. Wow This was taken just a few minutes ago not in daylight.
    12 points
  25. Nocturnal cooling aloft after dark may increase lightning activity later, sometimes it takes a while to get going until cloud tops cool sufficiently. Seen this many times. Lots of cells popping up over NW France as increasingly large scale ascent and cooling aloft of NE edge of plume takes place, as upper trough encroaches from the west.
    12 points
  26. Evening all my storm nutter's😁 you can see that the channel storm has a 10km+ height to it
    12 points
  27. We don't need CAPE across the UK, these are imports, not home grown thunderstorms. There's plenty of instability across France and that's where storms will initiate and develop, initially surface based before becoming increasingly elevated. As they move northwards within the high theta-e & fairly steep mid-level lapse rates they'll become increasingly elevated, rather negating the need for high CAPE values over the UK itself. Reasonable shear & vertical wind profiles will be enough to sustain thunderstorms across the channel and into southern/SE England, wherever they
    12 points
  28. I think there’s scope for another plume in the mid range?!...sooner than anyone would dare hope for but it’s certainly not the form horse! 🐴 ? 🤔...there’s quite a few GEFS 12z members toying with the idea of another influx of hot continental air, but only a few get close!..however, the longer term GEFS 12z mean into the last third of June has settled potential with some members turning anticyclonic!...in the meantime, if you’re a storm lover, good luck for Thursday, although cape looks crap on our side of the channel, it’s explosive across parts of the near continent as they will again be scor
    12 points
  29. Honestly guys, the GEFS 6z mean longer term doesn’t look to bad, there’s signs of ridging there 🤔 , and not much trough influence, not like in May, which was trough dominated!...indeed, there’s some support for high pressure to build in again towards the end of June / early July!...whilst I personally like summery weather very much!!, I fully appreciate that some don’t !!..so I say, good luck to everyone.. 🤔 😯...hope y’all get what you want! 😛
    12 points
  30. Timelapse from last night. A notable roll cloud followed by turbulent skies around 4 am.
    11 points
  31. Video isn’t great as we were hovering under the edge of the shelter debating wether it was time to leg it or not IMG_9900.MOV
    11 points
  32. Well worth a- pop in.. as we keep seeing certain output keeps hinting at upsurge interaction to building Iberian heat in around 8/ 10-days time.. once we rear out of the upcoming breakdown.. the mid- late temperature anoms highlights this well.!!. And the 500 geos updates also are leaning towards an upsurge.. one to watch for sure.. if we get the tap correct.. it’s serious scorchio time.. a bit later this month 🔥🔥☝️🤔..ciao fa- now 👋.. currently hovering around 28c with high humidity here @uxbridge 🔥
    11 points
  33. Aaaand that familiar tingle of anticipation has arrived! As ever I look forward to sharing any photos I may get to take on the Seafront. I'll also do my usual write up type thing just after the event, with shaky adrenaline-filled fingers on the keyboard lol! Best of luck to everyone 🙂
    11 points
  34. Hot off the press... @Nick F's analysis of the Spanish plume and storm risk this week: Analysis: Spanish Plume brings thunderstorm risk from mid-week WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Synoptic analysis of the risk of thunderstorms moving across southern and eastern parts of England from late Wednesday through to the weekend.
    11 points
  35. Conditions across France tomorrow are ripe for rapid thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening, potential for some upscaling into MCS/severe thunderstorms there too. High PWAT values edging northwards into the SE of England brings the risk of flooding under the more intense echos, with the potential for 40-60mm in the space of just a couple of hours. Whilst instability across the UK is generally not there/very CAPPED, we could see a couple of cells breaking out ahead of the French imports during the middle part of the afternoon if we can achieve high enough temper
    11 points
  36. UKV is still looking alright for most areas of southern England. If it was believed then there would be a second round of activity on Friday evening and night.
    11 points
  37. The 06z has NO support from the anomalies, so ignore it, its not worth getting all het up and anxious about
    11 points
  38. The Atlantic has got derailed on this mornings ECM. Much of the UK is still in the very warm continental air by next Saturday morning:
    11 points
  39. Video done from my chase in Kent 2 nights ago
    10 points
  40. Wonderful photo posted by Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Norwich, of a shelf cloud on Wednesday: Shelf cloud approaching Dungeness in SE Kent on Wednesday evening. Shortly after this photo was taken very gusty outflow winds hit, and a few minutes after that torrential rain began... Source: Twitter @danholley_
    10 points
  41. Well the money shot in Northants is a delicate curtain of convective rain in front of the sunset....
    10 points
  42. Seems we’re witnessing, as I suspected some days ago, a classic case of GFS overdoing the AAM drop associated with the declining part of the cycle, causing it to stubbornly predict a long-lived trough over the UK, only to start backing that west and introducing Scandinavia height rises nearer the time, as it slowly catches on to a reality that sees AAM only fall modestly, to near neutral, before climbing again. This has a 2018 feel to it - but the low heights to our northwest were exceptionality deep and persistent that June-July, while this time around they don’t look to be as extraordin
    10 points
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