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  1. 38 points
    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream... Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the default summer pattern out in time throughout the first half of August. Quite a subtle, but distinct shift has duly occurred over the last 2 days. Clear indications now that the return to cooler unsettled conditions after the upcoming plume is not in for a long haul, as by the second half of next week the axis of the upper trough looks set to re-orientate further away to the NW of the country and the Azores ridge allowed to create a downstream extension to extend and sit over and to the east of a greater part of the country. There is still likely to be some secondary trough inroads swinging around the main upper trough, but crucially the approach of these on a subtly different track - and advecting incursions of tropical continental airmasses ahead of them on a more regular basis and with the rather unseasonal North Atlantic airmass incursions less dominant. This implies an increased thundery nature to a greater number of the rain bands, with very warm/ hot sunshine in between, and winds much more often from a southerly vector than seen for much of the summer so far. There, I have said it.,..
  2. 29 points
    I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.
  3. 29 points
    Excuse the self-quoting and the extent of the re-post but over two weeks further on in time, it is surely interesting to revisit this as a means to demonstrate how the utilisation of the global wind-flow and angular momentum budgets can prove highly useful in gaining clues when NWP gets carried away by negative momentum inertia and is blind-sided to the sudden switches in global inertia that lie hidden around a future corner. Hence, akin to the dropping of a red hot potato in the hand, the volte face of the retracted Atlantic ridge and downstream trough that blighted most of July. The largest westerly inertia push since the Spring is underway. Steadily rising frictional torque tendency within the tropics is finally engaging mountain torque tendency within the extra tropics Based on the low level of global momentum up to this time, this injection of wind-flow c/o rising torques within both the tropics and extra tropics has created a very strong rally angular momentum tendency set against such a below average level vs parity. This has been the cue for the models to ditch the persistent Pacific amplification evident since the start of the summer and re-configure the downstream pattern. The end of week plume this past Thursday and especially Friday has been just the opening salvo - much as anticipated in recent posts. The Global Wind Oscillation, a plot phase depiction of global wind-flow inertia, reflects the sharp uptick in momentum and underpins the pattern re-configuration with the downstream ridge tendency that is returning to NWP c/o an orbit dash out of the La Nina attractor phases and into Phase 4 for the first time since the start of summer This feedback builds towards the programming of the substantial heat ridging development through this week The wavelength/timeline of the downstream switch augurs better for at least the first half of August fortunes. The test will be how quickly the default low frequency signal across Africa and the Indian Ocean regains authority and starts to re-amplify upstream once more. However, that is for another time. Very good support for a phase of very warm/hot weather, and with the nuisance upper trough displaced sufficiently away to provide good injections of hot continental air. As stated the other day, secondary low pressure systems will provide interplay with the downstream ridge and this ups the chances for thundery activity including elevated importations c/o some destabilisation over the Spanish plateau. However, for the period under discussion at least, harder for cool North Atlantic air to make the ease of inroads so far east as seen so far this summer. The extent and intensity of the heat advected from southern europe is of course a subject of great interest from a meteorological point of view. From an enjoyment summer perspective many will be grateful for some stunning seasonal weather and it won't matter if temperature records are broken. Very warm evenings for sitting outside with dinner and some glasses of wine will be greatly savoured. Hopefully this will become a familiar form of relaxation when, eventually all being well, I arrive here at a new home an hour from Lisbon. Just got to get the builders in to provide a pool! But first of all fingers crossed that the deposit gets safely paid this coming week:
  4. 27 points
    A frustrating chase where I spent more time stuck in the car in either heavy rain or heavy traffic, but a few shots came out good! Daytime shot from Holme upon Spalding Moor, having been stuck for 45 minutes in roadworks before! Only had 5 minutes before it was on me! Night shots are from Grindale and Flamborough, East Yorkshire! I guess I could have stayed at home and probably nailed the shot over the south bay I've been trying to get for years but maybe next time!
  5. 25 points
  6. 23 points
    So my take on this outrageous ECM run - taking raw values and adding 2-4C to get nationwide highest temps: Thurs 30-32 Fri 34-36 Sat 35-37 Sun 33-35 Mon 36-38 Tues 38-40 (FORTY) Weds 37-39 It's easy to forget this is the best verifying model in the world. Could it really happen? Feels like a dream.
  7. 23 points
    Few captures from yesterday’s chase (31st July 2020) between two counties Nottinghamshire & Lincolnshire. Day started off setting off from Plymouth (Hometown) potentially heading into Kent for developments pushing up from France but my gut told me to hang off with an opportunity in pushing North. Hanged About in Cambridgeshire which looked to be a good half way point to both ends but given convection was starting to fire up towers I made the crucial call and go with what I thought best pushing north into Leicestershire when we was welcomed by storms firing up all around. Ended with an amazing sunset!! May think I’m nuts coming all that way but I love roadtripping and so do my two sons. Going to suffer in work tonight I’m nackered.
  8. 23 points
    So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C : Thursday 31-32 Friday 35-36 Saturday 36-37 Sunday 39-40 Monday 37-38 Tuesday 36-37
  9. 19 points
    I admit especially to tuning out of individual operational outputs, but more especially the GFS which provides too much of a distraction with its intra day vicissitudes and inconsistencies when trying to look at trends day on day. To put it another way, I would conserve energy and not spend much time at all poring over intra day details - especially with so much erratic continuity each and every 6 to 12 hours. Most especially several days away. From my own viewpoint things are shaping up still for an excellent spell of summer weather. The earlier attempts by GFS operationals and a minority of its ensembles to wedge a trough between the Scandinavian high pressure and the Azores ridge to the west is redolent of the default regime we have moved away from (for a time anyway) and is typical GFS bias in these type of situations to want to overplay Atlantic ridging. This has the effect of lowering pressure too much downstream c/o excessive retrogressive pull which over weakens the "bridging" between the two anticyclones. In some respects, and this was alluded to in a post of mine last week, we are are likely to see the opposite trend of the bulk of the summer so far, for a little while, whereby NWP (more especially GFS) might be over progressive with negative momentum bias and will be coerced into re-adjusting upwards increase of pressure on strength of downstream ridging rather than the opposite trend of the summer to date to overdo Azores ridging eastwards and then incrementally retract it afterwards.. There is bound to be something of a rinse/repeat element to the upcoming very warm/hot spell but the transitioning ridge from the Azores to take over from an existing downstream ridge (to then become the renewed downstream ridge) is a classic evolution of some of the more extended very warm spells in summers at this latitude. With that in mind, I think the weekend sequence is rather a distraction to the fact that prospects look very warm, in general, for a rather longer time instead of extremely hot for a shorter period of time. There is a reasonable chance that the relatively cooler North Atlantic air encroaching into the northern half of the UK at the weekend will "warm out" heading into next week as the renewed anticyclone absorbs the heat advection from the continent. The first half of August is increasingly looking very promising. Uncertainty grows thereafter in terms of possible return to default - as the superimposition of the eastward progression of the high frequency MJO forcing on the pattern completes its orbit. This MJO wave is presently cutting off the upstream Pacific amplification process that has been the spoiler for NW European downstream pattern this summer. Once it fades and its influence is removed, then the low frequency walker cell across Africa and the Indian Ocean resumes charge of proceedings. When that happens, easterly inertia will be added back to the atmospheric circulation from the tropics into the extra tropics as torque tendency switches negative which in turn will promote falling angular momentum - and cue re-amplification upstream. This signal, in basic synoptic terms, for this part of the Northern Hemisphere would likely be indications of the main upper heights shifting decisively westwards and a trough migrating around the perimeter with pressure falling more generally across NW Europe and Scandinavia. However, as stated yesterday, that is subject to further clarity at this distance and can wait for another time. Its time to enjoy summer proper for many
  10. 19 points
    Yet another model first. A mean 1PM London temperature over 30C at D7!!! From a model that was 5C below the maximum yesterday!
  11. 19 points
    Impressive lightning from a video my wife took in our back garden last night. Yesterday's storms were the most spectacular I've seen here for a few years. We also had numerous power dips after the cg strikes
  12. 18 points
    What’s your point in being on here then? Must have imagined the models picking up Friday’s hot spell a week in advance. What a nonsense comment.
  13. 18 points
    ECM clusters appear fairly united on how they expect next weekend to pan out. First, that move on heights up through Europe just to our east on D8, which is highly likely to drag hot air with it (in spite of what the GFS 06Z wants). I've checked the ensemble summary here: https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro, and next Saturday, 90% of runs have a raw 1pm temperature of between 24C and 32C, and yes, in my experience you can also add that 2-3C to these raw temperatures to get to the actual localised maximum, so this suggests 90% of runs would produce between 26C and 35C, not even at the hottest part of the day. By D10, signs that this may consolidate as a "Sceuro" High, which would maintain a continental flow (cluster 3 the only real dissenter). Should stay hot. By D12/D13, signs that the block to the east may start to break but various options of what happens next, from breakdown to a fresh injection of heat from the south - too far out to be particularly specific, of course. Main headline for next weekend, then - Expect a heatwave, probably of the low 30Cs type, small chance of the high 30Cs type
  14. 17 points
    A reason touted for the heat 'extreme' we got last week is that the lowest part of the column of air at the surface was heated by the anomalous warmth & dryness of the soil over France & Spain- With nothing changing over the next week or so in terms of that Factor - what normally might be a range of 33-36 in this set up might suddenly become 35-38 ... Something to consider when asking why the models keep underdoing the TMax in southerly winds -
  15. 17 points
    The ECM would be a furnace for the SE of the UK- Mega hot conditions & occasional thunderstorms Bring on the 20C CET @DAVID SNOW
  16. 17 points
    Oh boy am I excited about August..oh boy am I excited about August...do you really need me to say it a third time?!!!!
  17. 17 points
    As mentioned last night. Just after the storm had passed. The pictures do not really show the full effect.
  18. 17 points
    This was the best pic i got tonight in Bridlington absolute cracker of a storm broke out when i was about to give up haha. 1 strike even turned the towns lights off
  19. 17 points
    Looks like a more prolonged hot spell starting Thurs next week... Top temps today unofficially +38.2c not far off the record...
  20. 17 points
    In the longer term after the excitement of today and what might the maximum temperature be, then the anomaly charts are showing a concensus for a more S of West flow into the UK, heights tending to rise ESE-NW of or even over the UK with the marked trough edging west and elongating. See below. Not a done deal yet but reasonable agreement between the three and EC has been the leader of this pattern change. The 8-14 NOAA also keeps this idea going. Another 24-48 hours showing similar charts and the change would be about 75% likely by next weekend IF this pattern is kept by all three. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  21. 17 points
    John down the shops thinks that the vertically stacked profile is too tight to allow for the development of a decent storm front oh really? I think you need to speak with Stan down at the post office - he’s certain that surface friction could cause the front to become tilted and result in an increase in instability Ken told be the timings are crucial, mind you he was getting his hair done at the time I don’t trust ken after he predicted that derecho over Bledlow last July. All we got was a gust that blew my knickers into next door’s greenhouse Well I don’t care what you say. I believe ken every step of the way... Gordon at the Flower Shop thinks there will be a lot of rain oh don’t be silly, Gordon’s Flower Shop always overdoes the precipitation
  22. 17 points
    If your looking for some heat this is route 1 !
  23. 16 points
    This is the extent of my confidence so far. Thursday / Friday, I'm very confident it will be hot with the maximum figure between 30C and 36C in Central / Eastern England. Saturday, I'm fairly confident though not 100% that it will be very hot with a maximum between 33C and 38C. Sunday onwards, no, I'm not confident.
  24. 16 points
    Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk
  25. 16 points
    Great shots, @Odd Spot I was similarly astounded by the sunset after the storm cleared northwards. Convective skies can often yield spectacular sunsets.
  26. 16 points
    UKV chart for 15:00 (Saved this from the 09Z run this morning) 37C for today. It started off earlier in the week with a high of 32C! Then gradually increased the maximum each day with 36C showing yesterday lunchtime. (Posted in here) Great stuff from everyone in here this last ten days or so - really enjoyed the build up to this plume! We have got the wonderful high temperature...bring on the spectacular thunderstorms now! (Keep an eye on the sky - who knows what will pop up!) Have a good weekend everyone!
  27. 16 points
    37.8c (100F) at Heathrow. This means that even the ARPEGE has underestimated the temps. Holy bejesus.
  28. 16 points
    Hey Man With Beard, you’re good, you’re really good...and the ECM 0z ens mean backs you up.. great job..for those who thought summer 2020 was over and out..it isn’t, far from it..hats off to Tamara too !
  29. 16 points
    GFS PTB 2 Smashes the UK 850 record with +25c Uppers ... Havent seen many runs like that before... Thats the equivalent of the winter -20c line...
  30. 16 points
    I have been tracking these charts since before 2003 and I honestly do not believe I have ever seen anything like that on a D9 mean chart, 16C uppers on the south coast - that's one of the most remarkable charts I've ever seen - it's as hard to get as a minus 10C mean in January.
  31. 16 points
    Days 8-10 from the ecm mean... "BRING IT ON"
  32. 15 points
    What the ECM is doing with Monday/Tuesday next week is slightly terrifying. It's trapped the plume over the low countries over the weekend and now it's being sucked back into the England. The temperature record would probably go on this run.
  33. 15 points
    And a last one from me for now is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-10 day outlook,EPS and gefs at day ten all pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet in my book with downstream trough in the Atlantic with upstream hp cell towards Scandinavia,this could be a more prolonged warm/hot spell than the one just gone,lets see how it goes in the next few days.
  34. 15 points
    It's not just the Southeast.. many places will see high temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
  35. 15 points
    Afternoon all! 06z GFS is a very good run today - it has some heat stalled for 8 days, along with the 16c isotherm in the south. It's also showing some thunderstorms come Saturday. ECM is also very good and will also probably show thunderstorms on Saturday with that low out in the Atlantic. 18c isotherm on the south coast too: Other models like the GEM and ICON are superb. GEM is the best with the 20c isotherm in England - even getting up to Yorkshire! So in my opinion there will be a heatwave coming - it's just a matter of how hot it will get. Great posts once again here guys (Tamara especially!) Going to go downstairs and have some of my birthday cake now.
  36. 15 points
    I'll just leave these here. After one of the hottest GFS runs I can recall seeing, which when accounting for bias would deliver 9 or 10 days widely into the 30s for England and often more than only just, the ECM 12z has taken a less stable but more intense route. Phenomenal charts at hand but we must keep our heads - we're only just able to have some confidence in the opening stages taking place Thu-Fri, now that GFS has caught most of the way up with respect to the UK-Scandinavian high build.
  37. 15 points
    Almost every single ECM ensemble has the 18C upper line over some part of the UK next Saturday. That's a really strong signal for a hot day.
  38. 15 points
    Evening guys that was a good storm earlier and overhead at one point as you will see from the short clip i post in a bit but firstly before i get to that there was some instability in the air a good hour before the storm arrived i don't know what sort of cloud these was but they where the type that you don't see every day,they looked like daytime nocturnal clouds with the ripply effect then some ac-cas type clouds bubbling up to my SW then right on queue the storm was visible to my south and as it got closer i managed to capture one Cg from all of this storm as most of it was elevated then this last shot of the storm to my east as i moved to the front door facing east there was two close strikes at the back(west sods law) and i missed them thinking the storm had moved to the front of the house(east) silly me forgot to format the cam from storm chasing a couple of months back and while i was filming the memory was full,i was gutted as the storm was growing and becoming intense with none stop lightning and constant thunder never mind,here is a short clip of the shotgun thunder and it was instantaneous after the lightning strike but miss it because it was out the back garden and i was filming from the front Loud thunder.mp4 Loud thunder.mp4 next dose hopefully next weekend
  39. 15 points
    If you are looking for heat but without the humidity then the GEM serves uo the perfect shaped High with a nice ESE curvature dry heat can feed in from Europe a la 76.
  40. 15 points
    I think in all honesty the GFS is on board. The 00z had solid high pressure over the UK for several days from Friday onwards, and likely temperatures of 30C in the SE and mid 20s for a lot of areas - pretty typical UK heatwave conditions - added to that, it was almost a cold outlier within its ensembles! Not saying this to you, but saying this as a general point - The regularity of the uppers 20C line reaching the UK perhaps has altered expectations of what a heatwave looks like - it used to be the case that the 20C line would only clip the UK once every 10 years. Now a summer doesn't feel complete unless it happens. But a good old-fashioned UK heatwave involves uppers more Iike 12-16C uppers, and the occasional 32C at surface level. This kind of heatwave looks a strong favorite for next weekend - maybe a little hotter if the pattern sets up right - but a couple more runs to get through yet to make sure the Atlantic has not been underestimated around D6.
  41. 15 points
    Exeter have been way behind the pace this summer. It took them ages to drop their “warm and settled” second half of July forecast when practically all other modelling (including their own) were against it.
  42. 15 points
    Great chance of that coming off tomorrow now you would think - quite a few models going for it which is always a good sign at this timeframe! Latest UKV (remember this is a model run by our very own UKMO) showing a high of 36C! Numerical weather prediction models WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office. Latest UKV: Friday 13:00, 14:00 and 15:00 Again though patchy high cloud could be an issue from early afternoon in places - also still showing showers/thunderstorms breaking out late afternoon/evening. (Many other areas of the UK also at risk of course in this setup as the evening/overnight progresses) As we all know it will be a case of radar/sky watching for any convection kicking off in real time - models/charts at the moment won’t have a clue with regards to any potential elevated storms. (So take this and any other storm forecast with a pinch of salt at the moment) Keep an eye out for @staplehurst posts and his forecasts here below: Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Possibility of a heat burst tomorrow? (He mentioned this on Tuesday in the storm thread) Anyone remember that now historic/record breaking July day last year!? So pretty exciting stuff for most of us in the short term with regards to how hot it will get and will there be any thunderstorms about! (Of course if you are not a fan of heat/convective weather then not so exciting) Back to today - lovely warm morning down South! Currently 13C here with heavy rain...low cloud/sea mist completely covering the hills/mountains. All very Autumnal! Mid twenties and sunshine tomorrow! Have a good day everyone and hopefully we can get a 29/30C on the board today! Cheers!
  43. 15 points
    This is exactly the reason that I clicked on the follow button beside your profile! Can't thank you enough for these updates Tamara.
  44. 15 points
    I note, if zoomed in, the ARPEGE is back up to 36C for London on the latest 06Z chart. Bear in mind we are now within T60!
  45. 15 points
    EC clusters this morning continue to give hope of another plume at the end of next week. First, no use pretending, the beginning of next week will not feel particularly summery for most - a period of low pressure influence more or less nailed on (might escape the worst in the south aka cluster 1) A gradual improvement starts to appear by next Thursday as the next trough shows signs of stalling in the Atlantic against ridging over the continent Then by Saturday, we see the Atlantic trough has made no more progress, and the continental ridge anomaly has extended northwards Has this got plume potential? Compare with the T72 chart below, just after the height of the upcoming plume - at least three clusters are close to the same ridge anomaly shape, and two of the three have potential to go the same way shortly after - what we're looking for is that positive ridge anomaly to appear like a block to our east, with 500mb contours running almost vertically from top to bottom through the UK By D12 (the following Monday), clusters 1 & 2, which contain 75% of the members, have anomalies in excellent positions to promote settled, hot weather over the southern half of the UK, and possibly the whole country What could possibly go wrong?
  46. 15 points
    Morning all Well it is a fleeting plume visit as always but you have to be happy with these temperatures! (Unless you are not a fan of hot weather of course) Thursday morning starts off with a bit of drizzle/light rain over NW England but that clears fairly quickly and the temperature rises in the afternoon sunshine to a very respectable 25/26C! Further SE it’s sunshine galore and of course easily reaching 27/28C. Absolute wash out up here for most of tomorrow but might squeeze in a bit of evening sunshine as the rain finally moves away to my North. UKV Thursday 16:00 snapshot: Friday delivers the main show for many - temperatures of 30C widespread across many parts of England. I would still go with a maximum of 33/34C for the day but obviously that all comes down to cloud cover/convection breaking out - thus not reaching the full potential of the fantastic setup. (35/36C should be achievable) UKV Friday midday and 15:00: With regards to the cloud cover/convection it shows storms/showers breaking out over Northern France during the afternoon/evening and these drift over parts of SE England. (Far SE, Kent ect ect) Would not be surprised to see thunderstorms spreading further N/NE into E/NE England, SE/NE Scotland during the evening/overnight - or it could totally miss and end up with a North Sea lightning show. Thunderstorms/showers also approaching many Western parts of the UK through Friday afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorms/downpours could pop up just about anywhere in the UK and Ireland through Friday to Sunday! So a rough estimate based on current output for the Capital cities on Friday: Belfast 21/22C, Cardiff 26/27C, Dublin 23/24C Edinburgh 26/27C and London 33/34C! There are going to be quite a few places wondering what all the fuss is about - St Ives, Cornwall for example might only reach 20/21C on Friday. Saturday basically has a bonus hot day in the SE with a high of 25/26C - further NW you go (Manchester for example) it is a struggle to reach 20C. On that note I am now suffering with plume watch model fatigue so that’s my input done for the week! Looking forward to seeing what the maximum temperature will be and hopefully the storm thread will be buzzing with reports/pictures/videos! All the best everyone! Cheers.
  47. 14 points
  48. 14 points
    The ECM this morning looks like a good set up for a longer heatwave than the current heat "snap" - plenty of support from the GEFS again.
  49. 14 points
    The latest from cpc upgrades are flooding in for week two of August,keep em coming
  50. 14 points
    Dreamy charts from the ECM 12z operational, great potential..hopefully the best of this summer is still to come!
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