Leaderboard

Little point ducking the issue. A quacking weekend in store… 0z ECM op for day 4, as another low pressure system finds us with impressive timing! Further ahead, some more positive signs - once we start seeing this type of “super-meridional” pattern - ambitious building of heights up through the Atlantic and more spectacularly, through all the S’s - Sahara-Sweden-Svalbard-Siberia-Seguam like here at day 6 on the 0z ECM op… …it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing the trough becoming over-extended with the cutting off of the low at the base of the trough, it sinking south, the heights linking up through the UK and Ireland like here at day 8… Yes, add Skegness and Sandymount to your list, spectacular super-meridional S thing! After that, a weaker version of the trough tries to reassert itself from the northwest, which the GFS op has been keenest on, though looking at the 0z ensemble mean, the pressure never really falls away again, a steady rise to a respectable 1020mb for Birmingham by the end of week 2… …which is consistent with the ECM charts and the pincer movement of heights weakening the polar trough at its stem - so though nothing wall to wall by any means, the chance of a somewhat more promising setup emerging into early May. I’ll post again around then. All the best.

I have to say, I am seeing very little of hope of a substantial warm up in any of the models. Maybe something on ECM clusters 2 and 3 in the T192-T240 timeframe: But otherwise the pieces aren’t in the right place, and that doesn’t look like changing on the T264+: Maybe clusters 3 and 4 show an inkling of setting in the region of the UK. What we can say, is that the outlook is not wall to wall unsettled, like the earlier part of spring which is a pyrrhic victory, I suppose. At this time of year, I am usually on the lookout for signs of any self-reinforcing pattern setting up with an eye to summer, but no signs of that at all. First steps would need to be a build of some sort of heat over the near continent of which there is absolutely no sign, GFS 0z T360, for example: Meanwhile, above us the final warming in the stratosphere looms, in a few days on GFS 0z: The change to easterlies as shown (blue) on the left plot at 10 hPa 60N has been very clearly advertised for a while now, but there is no big driver to affect our weather with this, that (from the SSW) petered out a couple of weeks ago, and the strat is drifting now into summer mode as the vortex disappears. So one hopes the weaker drivers of summer edge the tropospheric patterns to something more favourable in due course, but for now the wait continues…

Another good one. Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

SunnyG Yeah, 20 degrees is possible for next week. So weird, I've never seen a situation that after snow it already feels like Summer. It's only taking a week until we can wear t-shirts and shorts.

Grand dry day. Swallows back chattering excitedly on electric wires. Theres's plenty of insects already due to the wetness. I fear a plague of midges this year.

Rush2019 Thought it was just us covered in moss! Never seen so much. Anything that hasn't moved has got thickly coated by this spring.

Precisely, just posted this in the moans thread. This time of year always has a greater likelihood of northern blocking, but a late season SSW simply locks in a pattern of high latitude blocking for far longer than we’d otherwise expect, which more often than not results in the UK being a trough magnet or keeping us under cool northerly or easterly winds. It happened last year too. Until this works its way through the trop, we’re unlikely to get anything substantially warm and dry until mid May at the earliest.

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

Overnight low of -1.6c, ground frost noticeable until sunrise. All tops clear and sunny intervals. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine.

Who likes snow at this time of the year ? Fourth consecutive day of persistent snowfall in these parts. Currently -1.6c in the village with a deep covering. Strange though as it was 30c in the valleys 10 days ago. The joys of spring ! c

0.6 mm rain over night from a little feature in the early hours. WRF had been showing that for awhile. It's done well this year with the mesoscale.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

We all know what will win out instead....

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7) Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15) The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up. Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?! Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

Azazel Bloody hell I would be absolutely melting in that attire in this weather. It's chilly but no more than a light jumper required for me.

Azazel I guess I picked the wrong month to go bare legged in My Kilts......a tad raw & windy around me trossachs I can tell You!!! I've normally had a least 1 hammock day by now, sometimes in March, but not a bloody chance this Year so far! Luckily I found a 'accidental bar stool' for my 'accidental Bar' so I can pop out and make use of the sunny ten mins we get allotted from time to time!!!

Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning. Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores. Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.

Sentinel Bacteria in the sea will be transported away from the source by underwater currents, wind and wave action. Yes it will be diluted but it can still infect. Good luck anyway, I hope you don’t fall sick when you do take the plunge

The aim of this thread to hopefully jinx us out of this infinite satanic pattern has clearly not been working lol. Here we are, still in a never ending abyss of grey & wet raw sewage except it has somehow managed to get worse with it becoming chillier as the days get longer! For me, this is turning into the worst year I have ever experienced & 2023 was bad enough but at least that one had a good February, acceptable May, good June & September! This one has had nothing except a sunny enough January. Wow, thanks so much weather gods for a good January & warmth rest of year....

Cold feel to start the day was 5°C 6am. Blue sky and broken cloud, looks clearer to the east. Yesterday max was 12.7°C.

I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier

Another grey lid day to add to the previous 1000's, cold, windy and occasionally spitting with rain, what a steaming pile our climate has become. Barring a couple of storms, this year is the most boring yet too and there is quite some competition there in recent times. SAD from Oct - May these days and seems to be extended each year. Sunlight, warmth and stormy breakdowns soon please weather Gods before I go insane.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

In Absence of True Seasons I am reading the journals of Lord Byron and he calls it a "preposterous climate". And that was back in 1812.

Methuselah Tamara is a great miss on this thread. I loved her indebth analysis.

Another gorgeous day here , off out to Glasgows west end for a few refreshments in a beer garden

Stunning while waiting for my flight to Gatwick

In Absence of True Seasons The average high in London at the end of April is 17c, and we aren't getting near that in the next week at least. For all the talk of this April being warm, we will probably end up with below average high temps. It's only above average by the mean because the nights have been mild due to the incessant cloudiness. We will end up duller than the average March.

Dont get me wrong Saturday still has fail modes, especially regarding morning convection but this 500mb chart could seriously be in a meteorology textbook page for what a significant tornado outbreak trough in the plains looks like. Strong belt of flow rounding the base and ejecting into the area at peak heating, negative tilt, divergence aloft. Recent trends have slightly slowed the trough ejection and further amplified the jetstreak. This is important, a faster ejection=less time between morning convection and our main event. Comparing past significant tornado events with this type of trough ejection the one that sticks out to me as looking the most similar is May 24th 2011, will we reach that ceiling? Im not convinced at the moment but the potential is there. Nam comes into range in about 2 hours interesting to see what it shows. Two other failure modes i can think of are lingering cloud cover and storms firing too early to make use of LLJ, also not 100% with lapse rates but lets see what CAMS do. CSU very potent though Ben Sainsbury I still think late may and early june has very good potential, big cape storms that only require a gust of wind to surge the RFD and drop a photogenic cone. Good luck out there!

Morning All, an overcast yet dry start to the day, after an overnight low of 2.8°C at: 02:51, currently 9.6°C, RH73% and light air movement from the N. From Above On Golden sands, perfect channel crossing weather

Me too, slug and snail slinging is my favourite pastime.

Sentinel Have you heard about the enormous volumes of raw sewage that the water companies are still releasing into our seas? Does that not put you off? Our waters are ridden with e-Coli

Sentinel I've never known our area to be so dull! As much as rain annoys me, I'd be ok with it if we had lots of sunshine as well but this combo of wet & dull....Hell no! Make it stop lol.

That’s probably a rare statement that both summer lovers & winter lovers will agree on!!

carinthian I doubt it but here's to hoping, mate. Markus03 Climate change has wrecked seasonality.

carinthian I don't like snow any time of the year so I feel for you. Luckily though you will have warmth soon, which we will not...

reef You're still doing considerably better than West Yorkshire though- only 61 hours so far in Wakefield. We're not doing much better here at 73.1 hours so far- very poor.

CET May averages and other statistics ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___ ___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___ 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) 20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day. 15.1 ... warmest May (1833) 13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848) 13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788) 13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808) 13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992) 13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947) 13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952) 13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018 13.1 ... 1998, 2022 12.9 ... 1989, 1999 12.6 ... 1990, 2016 12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023 12.3 ... 2006, 2014 12.2 ... 2011 12.1 ... 2004, 2009 12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average 11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007 11.8 ... 2002, 2012 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average 11.6 ... 1982, 1995 11.5 ... 1993, 1997 11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24) 11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average 11.0 ... 1986 10.9 ... 1985 10.8 ... 2015 10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average 10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)* 10.5 ... 2013 10.3 ... 1983 10.2 ... 2021 10.1 ... 1987 9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979) 9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years) 9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest 9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May Extreme cold 4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9) 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2) 3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) _____________________________________ * The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties. ______________________________________ England and Wales precip (EWP) contest Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present), The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773) 142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967 122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983 65.1 ___ average 1994-2023 64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data) 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous) 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844 ________________________________________________________________ Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. ... Good luck in both contests ...

It's getting like it is in winter for snow seekers, with the season just gone a perfect example. It was supposed to turn colder late December, then it was early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and before we knew it, it was March! However, at least it's only April with peak summer a good few months away. I'm sure we will have some hot weather next season, but will it be of the heat spike variety among cooler/unsettled spells or will we get more prolonged pleasant weather without getting ridiculously hot and humid?! 2018 was great in that it was consistently warm/hot with only modest levels of humidity until late July.

Currently modelled for midnight Sunday, however this will probably change timings and track between now and then.

If its going to stay unsettled, then we need the low to move to the sw to bring in something a bit warmer. That way, the risk of thunderstorms will start to increase at this time of year. That will make things a lot more interesting.

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

Weird skies here again in North Worcestershire, 2nd time this week! VID-20240419-WA0004.mp4

Got a nice thundery summer skies here Some sunshine but darkness within the distance

St Neots at 5.45pm.