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Showing content with the highest reputation on 20/01/19 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    Someone mentioned the Benny Hill theme a few pages back. Decided to read the rest of the thread with it playing. Would highly recommend
  2. 10 points
    Key difference beteeen the potential by late next weekend onward and that for the week ahead? This coming weeks’ requires a precise coming together of events to bring more than transient notably cold weather to the UK, but the week after’s requires that to prevent such a thing. This being as the SSW impacts become dominant hemisphere-wide instead of regionally. That being said - given the positioning of the lower stratospheric ridge, I feel it’s unlucky not to get at least a brief shot of deep level cold from the east this coming week. So I’m hesitant to draw a line under that chapter just yet. I see Fergie is of similar mind . He and MetO are right to keep emphasising the cold and snow theme toward end of Jan and on into Feb; the HLB signals for that dwarf anything we’ve seen for the week ahead.
  3. 10 points
    With regard to that U.S. low, it has been tracking a bit further north each day relative to model runs and now in reality is pushing its snow envelope about 200 miles further north(west) than many of the models had shown as recently as yesterday. It may not necessarily be a good thing as the track is now going to take it in more of a straight line to where it was going to go in an arc, and that arc was going to be pointing more northerly than the straight line so, by 48h it's a net loss to overall westward shift of pattern features. However, this shift over the past 2-3 days illustrates that the models are only approximately catching the full reality of the here and now part of the run, which means the medium term and longer term portions are almost certain to bust badly. In what direction is the operative question. I don't know but have the hunch that the slowly dying Atlantic is the real story and nature abhors a vacuum so something else (a northerly or easterly) will arise to take its place. Would lay a bet that either the 00z or 12z model suite swings back to the cold end of the spectrum and the cold will then be closer to reliable time frame. We'll see about that one.
  4. 9 points
    I think I agree with that. Given that patterns tend to ebb and flow a bit (I’m sure a physicist somewhere could explain the process through waves...but for a numptly like me I just observe...) it seems highly likely that the long wave pattern we are moving into will prompt another attempt at the NW block very soon. I don’t think the old model thread covered itself in glory today. Disappointing runs for sure - but if you remove the op run hype of the previous day solid predictions from technical posters of the pattern for the end of the week were conspicuous by their absence, and the reason was simple: nothing from Wednesday onwards ever looked nailed on. I’m not sure why people hang on individual runs so much and lose sight of forcings and hemispheric pattern....but it has been the case all along that the forcings of the SSW and Pacific have been clear to see, but equally clearly timings have been an issue. Can interested amateurs hope to get timings right when even the Met, with their supercomputer and dedicated professional staff, have also struggled this season....with the approach of colder conditions consistently put back? I think not. The droppng of the trough into Europe midweek was the only feature of the pattern change that was “easy” (comparatively) to spot at around the 192 range but the specific direction of travel after that has been hazy. However let’s be clear. Firstly, as I tried to show last night, models all have their frailties and ECM is not king all of the time. On that basis take the full suite we have available and never right any off entirely. Taking next week as the focus there remains a huge amount of uncertainty as to what happens once heights over Europe have lowered, and while a raging easterly now looks unlikely for Thurs/Friday this doesn’t mean an easterly is out the question soon after. Secondly - and related to this - ensembles are still good, and if you cycle back to the wise words of John H earlier today the prognosis remains good. Thirdly the drivers that a few people today have tried to knock (and if we’d think we can’t improve our weather understanding then why are we here....hence such posts seem extremely odd to me) are still here and approaching peak impact. If an easterly is lost for Thurs/Fri then we move on to the next opportunity, somewhat disappointed but still optimistic given those drivers. And lastly - some people may get a good snow event on Tues/Weds....an event we were able to signpost at around a week and should have people pleased!!! Sitting in the SW I’m a bit envious of those in the midlands and north who may cash in....good luck to you all. Finally - good points have been made today about probability. Has to be true. We are never dealing in certainties when looking at forecasting beyond 72 hours ( and often at considerably less....) and it is worth reflecting on this. Probability means that outside chances can happen. And huge favourites don’t always come out on top. Reflect on that. As one fellow Scottish Rugby fan said earlier - bloody good job too. If the outlier and the underdog was automatically doomed the world would be an extremely dull place. So as we are all weather enthusiasts in here, perhaps we should cling to the understanding that hunting snow is a long odds game in the UK and be comfortable with that, or go find another hobby.
  5. 9 points
    Leaked express headline for tomorrow. #sorrynotsorry
  6. 7 points
    D13 clusters (well one cluster) . Pretty black and white (well red and purple). That should be cold for the UK all day long! (and much longer!) We will see!
  7. 7 points
    I've had an evening of reflection (as you do! ), checking the end again, checking the ensembles, and, to my surprise and maybe anyone who has read my posts this week... I don't think the ECM ensembles have been massively wrong at all this week. Yes really. They've made a error with the placement of the low over Europe. But there will be a very short easterly, and the whole sinking trough, followed by minor ridge, followed by another sinking trough - well that was always the pattern. I think two things have happened. First, the fact that uppers were programmed to be minus 5C or below was misinterpreted (I'm including myself here). Uppers of this level on a mean chart do not represent extended cold. You need minus 7 or 8 on a consistent basis for that. Minus 5C generally results in periods of cold interspersed with less cold periods. Second, the Scandi High was a red herring. It never showed as a strong option on the ensembles (1030mb mean is my usual benchmark). Alas, I think I got caught up with the prospect of having some cold at all, and perhaps lost a bit of balance in my assessments. I hope I learn. Will I ever
  8. 6 points
    The USA weather bloggers and forecasters seem very miffed that the storm seems to be moving more to the NW than forecast. .....this is playing directly into our hands, the ECM wasn't expecting this.
  9. 6 points
    Looking at the Gfs 18z focussing on the early stages it gets rather interesting with snow for various parts of the uk..and not just on hills!
  10. 5 points
    @TEITS Did the seagulls ever show any hint of an Easterly for next week? I know there was an old saying in that part of England. @Fiona Robertson What signs are the horses currently giving off regarding our cold spell for Scotland that is approaching? @Bill .Farkin Which way are the grebes facing? Plus I am hearing from a reliable source that it is going to snow in Carlisle on Tuesday. I am starting to think the questions above are the way forward regarding future weather as the ECM, GFS and UKMO daily output are making my brain melt!
  11. 5 points
    So, the scene is set, finally... Cold north westerly followed by a holding ridge- followed by the jet heading on a jolly into Europe and N Atlantic height rises to the holy Grail... Thats how this is going to pan out with a bit of luck..
  12. 5 points
    Simply put because it's clear (even to myself) the effects the SSW is having and likely to have as we head into Feb. I have witnessed many failed E,lys in the past. However this isn't one of those situations when the failed E,ly is being replaced by a postive AO and well established Polar Vortex. Appears to me the AO could well become strongly negative and its more of a case of when rather than if the cold spell we all crave arrives.
  13. 4 points
    Just too many model threads to look at now back and forth more than the models themselves now
  14. 4 points
    Never apologise for being you mate your posts are quite frankly amazing and just what this thread needs. they are always accurate ( sometimes opinionated) but very to the point and informative for newbies. you write as you think. everyone has a handle. if that’s how you view the models then crack on bruv
  15. 3 points
    Funny isn't it...... 12 hours ago we all felt a bit deflated, now we're back on the cold hunt express. You've got to have stamina for this hobby.
  16. 3 points
    Would you prefer no jam tomorrow? And anyway, if you want some cold and snow chances - Monday into Tuesday looks ok. Glass half full!
  17. 3 points
    Incredible N Hemisphere chart. Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.
  18. 3 points
    Fantastic scenery today while out the house for a 6.5km jog. Another ice day and haven't seen any obvious snow loss. Photos taken close to coo cathedral back road that passes Aboyne Castle.
  19. 2 points
    Great to see a happy/positive thread! GFS pub run has put me in a great mood - looking forward to what the morning runs bring! This sums up my current feeling. Night all!
  20. 2 points
    And talking of consistency, GFS and GFSP at 276 both have us in an easterly, although the NH profile is very different. Edit, and the Control as well
  21. 2 points
    There is some SERIOUS- carbon copy of what others have posted in here. Not 2 mention.. Some very over the top...handbag like gfuqhgfpjhing!!.. Its non worthy.. We are in the game-and its nailed down 2 some minor adjustments!!! Daft.. And we are on the cliff edge of falling into some news making weather. Some want the anchor note..on the bbc 10-0 clock news... Keep watching...
  22. 2 points
    According to MetO the average max temp in Scotland in Jan is 5.3C. The chart you posted shows a range of 3-7C with small coastal pockets of 8C. Yes we'd love it to be colder, and snowy, but in reality that looks distinctly average to me. We have to accept that we have a temperate maritime climate, not a continental one, so even in Winter cold, snowy weather is not the norm.
  23. 2 points
    Oh the days of going out every Friday and Saturday night........
  24. 2 points
    What's that - 6 of them lined up at 60 hrs out..! that low sure is fond of the NE Coast line, churns away in there.. Ciel wrt to down welling.. 'paint drip' expression of the slow progression of the NAM, from below u can see the obstacles since the SSW and the eventual connection to the trop. I think the initial arctic outbreak impacting Austria was programmed before / during SSW.
  25. 2 points
    Can we please stop the whole I told you so thing? It’s infuriating reading multiple posts saying ‘I said this would happen’ 100% we all did get ahead of ourselves last night that much is evident but it’s like me resurrecting posts of people who were wrong and gloating, it’s pointless.. besides nobody is right or wrong yet as Nothing has actually happened yet!
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