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  1. 46 points
    The anomaly charts continue to support the overall pattern of northern blocking with lower heights south of this. The 8-14 NOAA is as good for cold as I can remember for a good many years. How cold, how snowy then much too far ahead and these charts are not for that purpose. The synoptic models will give some idea but not this far out. T+72 or so for a GENERAL idea, T+12 for detail. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php The ECMWF-GFS version also goes along with the NOAA advice http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  2. 37 points
    goodness gracious, pages and pages of ridicuously OTT ramps....this is really on a knife edge folks, just a small variation will change the weather pattern totally....I mean for example if you take the GFS00z run and then rotate your computer screen clockwise 90 degrees you'll quickly notice the isobar lines change direction and you get the mother of all southerly plumes with temps in the mid 80's......I'll fetch me coat (thermally insulated I might add as I'm going to need it for the next two weeks) notice to mildies, doing this is the only way you're going to see southerlies for the next few weeks.....lol (I do believe I have ramped again, that's twice in the last 12 hours........I need a lie down)
  3. 35 points
    You know it's a severe cold spell when the 510 dam 1000-500mb thickness line has moved over the UK! Rare for it to happen. As the deep cold advection eventually waters down later next week on the 06z GFS op, the run offers a reload of very deep cold air from Barents Sea area maybe in the offing first weekend of March, which collides with Atlantic lows trundling across France - BOOM Oh dear, think I'm losing all kind of forecaster sensibility and sound thinking looking at these GFS charts in FI!
  4. 35 points
    Well I might start acting all out of character and posting positive things 😂 You won't be able to make sly digs at my expense... I'll start as I mean to go on... Good output this morning.
  5. 33 points
    I really don't understand all the excitement. A cold snap that looks like it will be all over by mid-April....
  6. 31 points
    That's fine - go do your research: I've done mine. For length this will likely outlast 87, be a bit less cold but quite possibly more snowy. It looks as cold in uppers as 47 though not as long.... but snow potential matches. Definitely more impactive than 91 or 96, and in my book an improvement on 10 (though we will only be able to argue that after the event.) Nothing can touch the longevity of the 63 winter - but taking snap shots from that incredible season what we have approaching is of similar intensity, even though spring is on the doorstep and will cut it short. I'll hold to the claims. I think the next 2 weeks could go down in the history books as one of those special events. A ramp? Yes - but take a look at the output and the signals. All irrelevant now of course cos it hasn't happened yet - but after the event we can review. :-)
  7. 31 points
    As Steve has correctly said in an earlier post - we will need until Thursday before we can be 100% certain that the cold, as modelled, is going to hit. But I think we are 90% there, and my fears overly a potential southerly track are all but gone. There's barely a sniff of a southerly trajectory in any of the output, and as the models resolve the collapse of the Canadian vortex the HP is being moved into the most favourable of all positions. I don't want to say - "unbelievable" - yet again... but somehow it does need to be said. BBC at 0750 did something I don't think I have ever seen before, and that was put up a graphic for next Tuesday illustrating daytime max temps at below freezing. 7 days away? Every model in line, MetO in line and all we are now left to talk about is snow depth. Concerns over power, infrastructure, the old/homeless and general safety become real in this circumstance now. I hope the Met don't wait too long to put warnings out (its amazing how many people here at work have looked at me strangely when I said it was going to be extremely cold and possibly snow next week) and that everyone enjoys what comes AND tries to help those who will need it. Sleeping rough under -15 850s and heavy snow is not a combination to celebrate. But on the positive side - wow. Back end of next week for the SW to see real fun as per this chart or this one or this one (so many to choose from!!) but starting Sunday I will sit back and enjoy watching images of the east coast come under fire, and prepare for the best spell of weather since 1991/96 and quite possibly a spell that will outdo both of those, outdo 1987 for longevity and match 47/63 for severity. Big claims - but the model runs support such interpretation.
  8. 28 points
    So with trepidation I opened the models in following sequence. UKMO - check.....lovely bitter easterly GFS - check.....lovely bitter cold easterly with lots of snow to come and goes on and on with easterly reload at the end.....Chio? ECM - hmmm - not as clean.....quick check the uppers....oh boy, disturbed with widespread -12 uppers......snow snow snow GEM - safety in numbers....awesome Phew.... BFTP
  9. 23 points
    Morning all, what wonderful winter charts we have. Pick for me is the two from UKMO. The model rock solid route to prolonged cold and now in the reliable time span. The human input in the latest fax chart , this one for Friday shows the increasing North Scandinavian heights continue to gather a pace as the week progresses with its extended strong ridge pushing well into the Eastern Atlantic. Now we also see the depth of coldness likely with the plotted 528 and 510 dam lines indicated. For snow watches its that area between Latvia and Denmark that we have to look for trough development in the increasing depth of cold as it advects towards the British Isles. Think late Sunday and into early next week looks good for convective snow showers to move across your part of the world. Beyond that retrogression of the high with frontal attack from the SW ? Who knows...just enjoy and await the Eastern delights in store !! C
  10. 21 points
    I'm not sure how it's managed it but this is even bloody colder. -17c 850s into Kent by Monday, -17!!!!!!
  11. 20 points
    Even the hailed ICON is on board this morning so its in the bag There was snow up to the gutters at Blakey in 2010 so anything less if this spell happens and I will be very disappointed.
  12. 18 points
    Ensembles at T144. The milder possibilities have all but evaporated. Based on this morning's output, along with that of the past 48 hours, I think we can now say 75% confidence of -8C uppers affecting the whole of the UK next week, with 90% confidence of -10C uppers affecting the south. My slight check for northern areas is that the slightly more HP dominated cluster was still at 60% of ECM ensembles last night. Given the strength of the pattern and the consistency of the runs, I am not now expecting any sudden backtrack between D6 and D10. In fact, the only changes I'm expecting are increases in modelled snowfall. Those disruptions that are usually spoilers tend to get picked up by the ECM/UKMO at T96/T120. However, in such a pattern, I do not see a way for any disruptions to break the block to the north, and so they will only be able to travel in the direction of the cold pool. D10 is where it gets messy, though: On the face of it, still pretty strong ensemble means with a generally E/NE flow. However, complications are in the detail. Most complications do not break the cold, but there is a risk. First, I am tending to believe the idea that some sort of low is going to form to our south and interact with the cold pool around D9/D10. Lots of ensembles have this, both of GEFS and ECM. This would lead to a snowstorm, but milder air gets painfully close to the SE corner and may push through part of the UK temporarily. Alternatively, it may stay to our south throughout (ECM would be better on this). The second possibility is the low to the far SW gets closer, promotes heights ahead of it and breaks the easterly flow. Now this could just reinforce the Atlantic/Greenland High, but there's a small chance of it pushing mild air into the UK and resulting in the cold northerly being pushed west. The main possibility, though, is the block stays strong but in a more NWly position, and cold air returns very quickly through the UK, perhaps without uppers getting above -8C at any point which would be incredible. It may seem a little far out to be hypothesising over D9/D10 but given that the pattern seems reasonably well set out to D7 (aside timing issues) then trying to guess D8-D10 becomes more realistic than in a normal situation. But main theme - I can't see how we can escape the coldest weather for at least 5 years between D6 and D9 (and possibly since 1991) - and even though the models don't show it, I can't see how we can escape a major snowfall for all but the far NW during some period between D6 and D10.
  13. 18 points
    A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z. If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high. Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.
  14. 18 points
    Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled Textbook.
  15. 17 points
    So this morning's op runs summarised - 6 slightly different ways of sending the UK into the freezer.
  16. 17 points
    I've seen folks on TWO saying that this looks like a dry easterly
  17. 15 points
    Also impressive is how the ensemble clusters are so tightly packed to the same frigid outcome. It would take a monumental backtrack to get out of this now.
  18. 14 points
    Bonkers run. Start to finish, locked in cold, snow showers, frontal snow & blizzards, reloads, greenie highs and the lot for all. Bank please
  19. 14 points
    Fantastic output again this morning. ECM looks like a very snowy run to me from 168 with embedded trough aplenty, truly epic. I'm sure others can pick the bones out of the Op charts though, so I just want to mention something further afield. If you are not interested in FI projections and just want to enjoy your weather porn in peace then this is not the analysis you are looking for. Also this is not about looking for a breakdown, it is model analysis of where we might go once into March and a pointer for fellow ensemble twitchers such as I. (Please don't ignore these caveats if responding) If we look at GFS ensemble graph as guidance and take it as face value then it looks plausible that we start to get a breakdown 2nd/3rd of March but this is very unlikely. All (cross model) the Operational output shows a similar synoptic progression out to 168. Yes, the placement of and orientation of the high are still not settled but the idea of a clean retrogression has been the dominant signal of late. Unless the earlier pattern or the setup for clean retrogression changes then a breakdown/warm up will not be possible within the time-frames shown by GFS as the very earliest possible Atlantic incursion would be toward the end of 1st week in March (Say 5th at the very earliest). Point being that we should now be looking to switch from ensemble guidance to operational guidance when looking into FI - at least until the ensembles settle on the operational progression mentioned above or the operational output moves away from the current scenario it is painting. What is more likely than GFS resolving back to the climatological norm once into March is for a weak Atlantic to disrupt into Western/Central Europe and blocking to begin to renew - most likely in the form of an Atlantic ridge in line with this mornings GFS Op. In simple parlance I am saying that if the Ops are currently on the mark the cold will very likely be extended well beyond the 6 to 7 days the ensemble graphs seem to hint at.
  20. 14 points
    On the tarmac @Gatwick- ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days- If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic s
  21. 14 points
    You won't know what to do with yourself if the severe cold actually arrives as planned Crewe, you won't be able to make pessimistic posts about it not happening and always being in FI I'm not seeing the ICON being given much love this morning so here goes, closer to the ECM and UKMO solution at that time frame than the GFS but all roads lead to cold it seems with the current output, so glass is increasingly looking like it will be half full!
  22. 14 points
    So, just to clarify, people are annoyed that we may have to wait 12/24 hours for -14/16 850s
  23. 13 points
    Seen a store bought version of this on a lot of U.S and Canada snow videos, so decided to make my own, think i'm being over optimistic lol
  24. 13 points
    Purga... Took this one run of yours from overnight, but it is one of many. Whilst it is quiet in here I thought I would try and show how 'amazing' that last nights GFS 18z pub run rally was really was. It started with the Beasterly (now pretty much nailed on)... then went on to an attack from the SW giving a channel low very rare in these conditions.. then went on (and quite naturally) into a section of the PV coming down over us (the so-called polar low), and all in 7 days. Now I will try and put some figures on how rare this sequence might be. Assume a beasterly occurs once in every 5 to 10 years. Assume that a channel low might occur in a 1 in 10 chance (in bitterly cold air).. Assume that a switch to a polar vortex low occurs as a 1 in 30 years occurrence .... Note the above is roughly the figures for the UK. Now normally the 'odds' are calculated by multiplying the numbers together. That gives a 1 in 2250 chance of the events occurring one after another. Now because the synoptics just seem to 'flow' naturally from one to the other you must assume that it is fairly well a pre-set synoptic process and that once the situation sets up, one will automatically follow from the next. So if I assume that this reduces the chances of it 'not' happening by a factor of 2 to 5. (A complete guess but must happen frequently!) You still would only expect this sort of situation only once in from 400 to 1000 years. Note I am looking at the complete rapid sequence in a few days here, not just the chance of it happening in a total winter. It did happen in 1962 for example but was separated by about 6 weeks. So the odds are against it happening!"!!!! I hope that for the younger viewers it puts last nights GFS down as one to remember. It was a simply sensational run from a synoptic point of view. I see that already the models seem to be upgrading the 'early' cold. So I went on to think about how it could be bettered....... Possibly by means of dropping the main PV over us is the only way I can see. This would have to be via Siberia I suspect.. Now I think that would be a once in a millennia event and could not possibly happen. We could develop a 'low' in the beasterly ... Oh hang on the ECM does just that! It is once in a lifetime chance to view something special in the charts. Can it deliver!!!!!!!!!! MIA.
  25. 13 points
    Chart of the millemium. Definitely saving that pic.
  26. 13 points
  27. 13 points
  28. 13 points
    With all the excitement earlier, not sure if anyone mentioned the EC weeklies updated tonight, but they indicate it staying cold Well into March, here’s weeks 2, 3 and 4 week 2 Week 3 week 4
  29. 12 points
    For our Cornish friends keep an eye on the exact wind flow because anything with a touch of se in the easterly flow can deliver down there. Also areas a bit further east right on the coast if theres enough se in the flow. The set up could also be very exciting for eastern coastal parts of Ireland with the Irish Sea providing some lake effect snow. It goes without saying that east facing coasts of the UK should do well It’s also possible nearer the time we’ll see some troughs showing up in the flow bringing more continuous snow. These getting well inland on the strengthening easterly flow. The stronger the flow the better both in terms of convection off the North Sea and getting that snow well inland . At this point the exact flow can’t be nailed down and this does make a difference. I’d ignore any precip charts as they’re woeful with this type of set up.
  30. 12 points
    This is getting ridiculous. It’s got to a point when these charts are so good it can only go one way, or I thought before the 00z. The sheer consistency. The depth of cold. The snow potential. All the Ops, the steadfastly bullish ens. The background signals firmly supporting it. Everything is pointing towards one of the most memorable cold spells in decades, maybe longer. Just need to get over the line and fast forward to the end of the week. We are nearing the stage though where if this does get watered down, it would still be incredible. Not a bad position to be in.
  31. 11 points
    In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late November into December period in 2010.
  32. 11 points
    On the 14th February the ECM and GFS were showing these conditions for he 23rd (nine days ahead): ECM GFS . compared with today's +72hr charts from the same models: . To me, this looks like the ECM was on the right track six days ago, and nine days ahead of the easterly setting up. That's a pretty good performance in my opinion, and even if there were some wobbles along the way, the ECM wins the prize for modelling the easterly correctly. Of course, some of the brilliant posters on here had worked it out even earlier, so who needs the ECM anyway?
  33. 11 points
    Going by tonight's ECM and GFS pub runs, it looks like @Hawesy is gonna be busy with his snawdepth predictor tables again - well into March! Bet we still don't get a hallowed Met Office red warning up here. Well, not until there's been 3ft of level snow countrywide and Braemar and Altnaharra are setting new minimum temperature records. Anyone for sub -20C over the Highland snawfields by the end of the month?
  34. 10 points
    Morning all Another day of stellar output for many yesterday as the long-awaited and well-forecasted (by a few) SSW-related cold spell heaves into view. I'm going to, as usual, look beyond the immediate and eschew discussion of snow levels and locations for early next week and concentrate on the medium term which this morning takes us to Friday March 2nd. I thought much of the GFS output yesterday in particular was worryingly progressive in bringing Atlantic systems from the south and south-west and re-introducing milder air into the south and south east quite quickly - within 72 hours in some instances. For those wanting cold to continue, we need to keep the jet running far to the south and the LP systems moving into Europe. Anyway, let's see where we are on the morning output starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: A complex picture. An LP has developed over Ireland and deepened in situ while another runs east in the Mediterranean basin. With strong heights over Greenland and a residual HP over Scandinavia, the British Isles is in a cold or very cold E'ly airflow which is quite unstable so frequent snow showers or longer periods of snow for many. 850s of -12 cover the vast majority of the British Isles so snow will settle, accumulate and drift in the moderate winds. I'm not too sure where the evolution will go from here. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: For fans of cold and snow this is about as good as it gets. A strong HP over Greenland ridges SE toward the British Isles. LP is moving NE over central France with small shallow features in the Atlantic. The British Isles is in a cold NE'ly flow with snow showers to eastern and northern coasts and longer spells of snow to south eastern counties. 850s of -12 across the south but a very sharp temperature gradient over France.so plenty of rain and snow for them which might exacerbate flooding problems in the Paris basin. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Something slightly different with the British Isles under a complex trough with centres to the NE and another LP to the NW of Spain. It's starting to look like a west-based negative NAO but for now the 850s are still -12 in most reas so plenty of snow showers for many with longer spells of snow for the far north east. Further into FI and it remains a complex evolution though cold weather generally holds on with signs of new height rises over Scandinavia. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: The LP is over southern England having moved up from the south west and milder air has returned to the south east bringing rain and a thaw. Plenty of snow still to be had further north. However, the LP retreats south further into FI and re-introduces colder air briefly but pressure rises in southern Scandinavia introduce a milder more SE'ly flow at the end of FI so quite close to the OP. Looking at the GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240 Many keep things very cold over the British Isles but it would be wrong to argue there isn't or aren't alternatives bringing milder air in from the south. With other models keeping the British Isles in the freezer this could, perhaps be an example of a typically over-progressive GFS but we'll see. In summary, one of the best sets of mid-term synoptics I've ever seen if you want an alternative to traditional Atlantic south westerlies. The duration and severity of the cold and snow for early next week is something I'll leave to others but by the end of next week most models keep some exceptionally cold air over the British Isles. Within that flow there's plenty of instability to produce snow and perhaps large amounts of it and no marginality issues for most. Temperatures close to or below freezing even at daytime maximum for many would be unprecedented in recent times at this time of year. GFS still sniffs around a warmer evolution with milder air coming in from the south but GEM and ECM are keeping the LP systems well to the south and we await a possible "re-load" from the NE if the Siberian vortex lobe drops right but that's a long shot at this time.
  35. 10 points
    Incredible and let's all be honest, there isn't one person who has been able to keep a lid on it and hasn't told anyone.
  36. 10 points
    I'm going to try and switch off from this now... but my parting thought tonight is that we are getting further upgrades because the models are still playing catch up with the effects of the SSW. I cant think of any other reason than this... and the reality is that the reversal is forecast to remain in place for a further 9 days. What does this mean? I'm not entirely sure - but maybe this is how the last ice age started. Until tomorrow. In the future are people going to talk about 1947, 1963 and 2018?
  37. 9 points
    Incredible output again today, looks like the cold will become entrenched and severe next week and lots of powdery snow blowing and drifting around too..dream charts from the Ecm and Gfs..in fact from all the models!..can't wait!
  38. 9 points
    GFS = very cold and snow ECM = very cold and snow UKMO = very cold possible snow following GEM = very cold and snow JMA = very cold and snow eps ,GEFS and geps = cold and snow All this mixed together and you get the METO update which is stonking 😁
  39. 9 points
    and yet the apps are still showing 2-4 degrees next week
  40. 9 points
    This is not appropriate and misleading. These are not independent variables, and will show some significant correlation - based in particular on the underlying synoptic pattern of high latitude blocking, so it is NOT appropriate to multiply them together. The true odds of these things happening are much shorter than the 2250/1 you quote.
  41. 9 points
    Media excitement starting to ramp up now. Daily Excess: Desperate EU to unleash KILLER FREEZE on Brits Bitter EU bureaucrats are to sink to new lows in their deranged plan to PUNISH Britain for voting to leave. Feet of European snow is planned to rain down on Britain next week CRIPPLING transport networks and KILLING NUNS AND BABIES. In a clear demonstration that the crazed federalists would like nothing more than to take down Britain's TROUSERS and spank it with a rolled up copy of the Maastricht treaty the snow will be heaviest on areas that voted to remain such as London.
  42. 9 points
    *Stop Press* *Announcement from the Weather Agencies* "After careful consideration, we have decided to relieve Heide, Cindy & Ellie from their new posts and have replaced these ageing relics with four new super super-models, the GFS, ECM, UKMO & ICON.....Our senior forecasters agreed unanimously that this... is far more attractive for the office calendars than this.... " yes folks, I do believe I have just 'ramped'
  43. 9 points
    Okay folks, I know we're all excited and are dancing around the room with excitement at the insanity on offer (I know I am), but let's get back on topic please!
  44. 9 points
    Am I right in thinking that I don’t need to worry about the M4 issue with these charts?!
  45. 8 points
    At this rate, the cold will last until next winter
  46. 8 points
    UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018: Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  47. 8 points
    Now the UKMO is showing these Siberian conditions within the reliable timeframe: Europe goes into the freezer, and we are next: The air is being drawn all the way from Siberia directly to our shores - I've never seen that before..... Looks like the coldest air on the planet is lining itself up to pay the UK a visit - incredible images. We will certainly be talking about these conditions for years to come, and I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks goes into folk memory alongside the best winter weather of the last 50 years. Its not a good time to be a model watcher, though......the iPad batteries are taking a right bashing! Some disruptive weather ahead is now looking unavoidable.
  48. 8 points
    So having checked the latest charts.... M8 on Monday afternoon = It does look absolutely exceptional, not sure I've seen anything like it in a long time.
  49. 8 points
    Essentially today marks the beginning of the transition into a pattern change and a different regime, albeit not overnight. Today frontal systems are still affecting the east so pretty much an west/east split with the east remaining cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle whilst the west will be bright with sunny periods with perhaps the odd shower in the north west. Much the same picture this evening and overnight, the patchy rain in the east may move a little west on the dieing occlusion qQite likely a frost in the north west after a clear night By 1200 tomorrow the high cell is established across the country thus light winds and plenty of sunshine in the north and west but cloud and patchy drizzle may linger in central, southern and eastern England on the remnants of the front and temps in the 7-8C range Away to the west another front marks the interface between the airmass over the UK and the major upper low over southern Greenland and the cut off low to the south west which have linked and at this stage there is still a lot of energy leaving NE North America eastbound. By 1200 Thursday the energy has pushed the northern section of the front east whilst the high cell tilts and migrates north east thus initiating the aforementioned new regime as an easterly component to the wind is introduced in the south but at this stage not adversely affecting the temp noticeable. Over the next 24 hours, by 1200 Friday, the front does actually get quite close to NW Scotland, and further south the wind is picking up and veering a tad. Which brings us to the weekend. The wind continues to freshen in the south and with the colder air gradually encroaching from the east it will feel very cold in the wind chill although it will remain dry apart from maybe some snow flurries it the S/SE
  50. 8 points
    Totally set my alarm just to check the 00Z. This is just insane stuff. I am shooketh
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