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Showing content with the highest reputation on 16/11/18 in all areas

  1. 33 points
    Do you know I was on my way to breakfast thinking exactly that- Also as I mentioned to @Seasonality the other day Whenevers there uncertaintly around blocking towards greenland more often than not the models back away, however when the GFS in particular strings run after run together then upgrades are inevitable - & when was the last time we strung such a lengthy period of blocking runs together - 2010 Now the trend in the last 24 hours is to ease the blocking on day 6-8 over greenland as it holds in situ over iceland - however as we head day 9 out to ~13 the renewed pulse of blocking is now securing the greenland block but also another cross polar high is beginning to develop thus supoorting the longivity even more- As of today ive counted about 6 or so runs where we are blocked & bitter cold all the way through to the end of the run... Best S
  2. 28 points
    Three observations from me tonight: 1) Still in line with my thoughts from the other night, im not convinced on Greenland height rises just yet - GIN corridor seems more realistic at this early stage, and that’s partially because.... 2) I don’t really want Greenland height rises at this stage given such a mild 2018 across Europe so far. I fully expect synoptic evolution towards 2010 type scenarios as we progress into winter (and late 2010 has been a favourite for me in terms of analogues for some time, albeit I think we approach this with a slightly delayed timeline - but for the first time in a long time, I think long range NWP with its emphasis on northern blocking is not far from the mark) 3) Everyone needs to start appreciating how valuable the contributions of @bluearmy are in this thread. Nick has consistently through the years, whilst always being a cold seeker like most of us, offered an incredibly balanced view of what’s going on in NWP, and we should all count ourselves lucky that he continues to post his thoughts for us. (I promise I was paid no fee for this...) There has, as always, been a lot of conflict in this thread in the last 24 hours - and sadly that has just become a matter of fact in this thread as we get to this time of year. And I would hope that we can maybe move beyond that this year - we are blessed with some ridiculously knowledgable people in this thread and I would like to hope that nobody, no matter how experienced, is scared away (or frustrated away) from offering their thoughts this year. Each and every thought contributed is just as valuable as any other, given that for the overwhelming majority of us this is just a far too obsessive hobby and we are all looking for one thing - a happy snowy ending. ————— To return to my thoughts from the other night, and returning to point 1) - the reason I am not concerned about whether we get cold/snow in the coming week is that, as per my post earlier this week, the upcoming pattern (near record breaking Scandinavian high and, as GP aluded to earlier, Aleutian low to tow), the damage to the fledgling vortex will be near irreversible, and the longer term results across the northern hemisphere should be beneficial to the cold and snow enthusiasts among us. This is clasic wave 2 precursor stuff, and regardless of a rebounding QBO, given the current disconnect between the stratosphere and the troposphere, should play havoc with attempts from the polar vortex to set up its usual happy shop across the arctic. In short - I’ve not been this excited about a winter since 2009/10 - and this is just the beginning...
  3. 27 points
    A bit of an update this morning from our forecast team. Outer perimeter snowfall model has snow setting in here on Sunday night with a total accumulation of 11cm and temp down to -12c at top station by Wednesday morning. So that's an encouraging prediction for the resort planner, but greater snow depth needed to start work on the seasons ski pistes , but that's a start. They inform me that a increasing feature showing on their on single model at 144t-168t is the formation of another westward propagating low formation / trough in the Northern European plain/Southern Baltic region. They seem to think this could be the catalyst to advance the Arctic front into the British Isles by months end ( one to watch ). Regarding the shorter term models out 144t, UKMO seems the best solution from what they see and again are surprised at the ECM speedy evolution to a veer in the flow. Their own longer term charts still show strong ridging towards the Arctic with possible Omega Upper flow (300mb ) block developing a more meridional flow early December with strongest flow into NE Europe and rather weak Atlantic jet still showing persisting, but that's a long way off. Will get a latest snow projection later today, so will try a see what that has in store for UK , however , still in the out perimeter predictions. Its going to be great model watching in the hunt for cold but pleased with this morning update from over here .
  4. 23 points
    The GFS sequence is again probably the wildest cold run out there I think ive ever seen in terms of blocking ! The AO for 204 onwards will be sub -4 & the NAO tanked as well- You probably couldnt imagine better charts than this - !! Also UKMO fully on board as well out to 144 with snow - probable SE on day 6- Incredible runs... a
  5. 16 points
    A little focus of the various operational runs at 120 hours: GFS 00Z UKMO 00Z: ECMWF 00Z GEM 00Z ICON 00Z They all seem to be in fairly good agreement with Easterly No. 1 next week. (I say No. 1 as further Easterly outbreaks are very possible when you get blocking to the North). For the UKMO, had to use the Meteociel chart for its 850 hPa temperatures due to these being unavailable to Wetterzentrale. While they do essentially show blocking High Pressure developing to the North and Atlantic Low Pressure sliding underneath it to our South or South-East into mainland Europe, there are some differences. The GEM has the Northern UK High a little further South compared to others with higher heights affecting more areas of the U.K. The cold pool to our East over mainland Europe just about scrapes the South-Eastern area of the U.K. with an area of positive 850 hPa temperatures affecting Northern England, Northwards. GEM is known apparently for either under-estimating or over-estimating the cold or warmth of the 850 hPa temperatures. Whether this really is true or not. Though I still feel the reason for it having a more widespread area of milder upper temperatures is due to that blocking High not being quite as far North. The other models runs have either Easterly or North-Easterly flows with areas of -5*C, and slightly lower, 850 hPa temperatures affecting more areas of the UK via the cold pool to the East with none of the 1*C or milder 850 hPa temperatures affecting any areas of the U.K. Those milder 850 hPa temperatures are locked away to the North of the U.K. within the High Pressure centre’s circulation. The 500mb heights are somewhat lower with greens and turquoise colours generally affecting Northern England, Southwards. This particularly so on the 00Z ICON, where even Southern and Central Scotland are affected by the greeny colours. Apart from the GEM, thanks to these lower heights along with 850 hPa temperatures being around -5*C to -8*C in places (especially on that UKMO chart where -8*C’s clip far South-East of England), this would probably provide enough instability for some showers. Some of these could wintry at times, even to some fairly low levels. Possibly some wet falling snow where showers are heavy and where they become more organised. Though they’ll likely be mostly quite light or moderate, with the heaviest ones towards Eastern areas. Would ideally need even lower 500mb heights and 850 hPa temperatures to make the situation even less marginal for snow and to help increase chances of more potent heavier wintry showers. The warmish North Sea temperatures, especially towards Southern areas, may though help in favour of producing some fairly beefy showers. Finally, the exact placements of the Northern UK High and the areas where Low Pressure slides under these, aren’t all quite the same. The likes of the ECMWF, for example, has more of a stretched West to East orientated blocking High over Northern UK with the core of Low Pressure generally more concentrated to the South-South-East of the U.K (the model where High Pressure is also more prone to getting knocked away further East, still with some of it getting cut off to our North). This, though, resulting in more of a direct Easterly flow as opposed to the likes of the GFS, ICON and UKMO (and even the GEM). Low Pressure on these other models (accept maybe on the UKMO) is little more further East over mainland Europe with generally more rounded Highs to our North), with the flow steered more from the North-East over the U.K. Although it’s easy to get excited by what’s on offer further on in these outlooks with some of us unstandably hoping for a more potent outbreak of cold weather to occur, would say the likely upcoming Easterly may provide some wintry interest. Even if it looks to be rather marginal and the Easterly could just be a bit of a dull, gloomy, chilly affair at times. Plus, with some differences between the models at day 5 (120 hours), as illustrated above, then expect some further tweaks to the upcoming week. The 00Z GEM seems a little on its own with the Northern UK High being somewhat more in control at 120 hours. As such, probably the run that’s least likely to happen (but you never know!). The general broad pattern does seem to be their, however. Blocking High Pressure and high heights to our North - Low Pressure and lower heights to our South, with a fairly potent Easterly quite possible over the U.K. Maybe cold and unstable enough for something a little wintry. Which would still be better than nothing. Settling snow however, unlikely.
  6. 15 points
    Watching the models try to come to some sort of agreement for what may occur toward months end is a far more relaxing experience in the ' comfort 'of mid November than say, the fag end of February. A lot of talk of 'slow burners' with 'building blocks' being put in place. That may well and hopefully be the case for a proper freeze towards months end and early December. It so often seems the case that so much of winter has past before a model scenario like this starts to play out, you are left thinking that we just don't have the time for a 'long route' to cold to play out. On this occasion if it does go 'bust' on us we can view this as a good start, and fingers crossed a trend this winter that will at some point pay out with snow by the bucket load!
  7. 14 points
  8. 13 points
    Chart of the day from parra that is one hell of a -NAO/AO signature.
  9. 12 points
    Some good news ICON back on board again.
  10. 11 points
    I just wanted to say: I'm happy this forum exists. The majority of members on here are supportive, friendly, and have a great sense of humor. The amount I've learned through other's knowledge is brilliant, and in most cases, I rely on this forum and it's knowledgeable members much more than mainstream forecasts! Whenever there is Fantastic charts appearing on model runs (Especially recently) , The atmosphere in here is buzzing & full of excitement. This also applies to the model output threads. It's strange... It's as if I can channel my excitement thorugh seeing others who are equally as excited. It almost makes the time go faster before a special weather event (I.E. 26th of may 2018, the beast from the east in february, etc.) occurs. I may have mentioned this before, but I have very mild autism & ADHD, And I''m very close to finishing school (nearing my GCSES). This forum helps me contain my excitement throughout my daily life. I hope this forum continues as it is right now for the foreseeable future. Thank you everyone.
  11. 11 points
    These charts from 1st December 2010 preceded some of the most memorable winter weather seen in December in recent years: We all know what followed in 2010. So when I saw these charts from the GFS showing a possible evolution for 01/12/2018 I couldn't help making comparisons..... i would say they hold at least as much potential, if not even more, for a cold and wintry December this year. Very exciting prospects indeed! Now all we need is for these conditions to verify..... What are the chances, eh?
  12. 11 points
    Apparently one of our viewers phoned in and said they had been told winter Narnia was coming... Don't worry, Winter Narnia isn't coming.
  13. 10 points
    FV3 run verging on epic territory at T276: A recurring theme now on the better runs is to push the entire trop vortex to the eastern half of the NH, creating the ultimate cold pool to tap in to.
  14. 9 points
    Oh my! How’s that for a Stonking set of ENS Some pretty cold runs in there! On balance there are a few rather mild ones as well, somewhat of a split from around the 27th, but majority look cold to me...?
  15. 9 points
    As soon as I saw that Arctic HP appear I thought 'oh boy, here we go' I do believe that is the GFS saying 'up yours, son' to the EC46
  16. 9 points
    I think this is the first time we have seen an Arctic high thrown in the mix. That would surely spell game over any Atlantic driven weather for the foreseeable. Pretty cold 850s into SE on UKMO,
  17. 9 points
    Yes daniel..the azhp..wants to shake hands with that large pac-waa/ridge.. Top stuff!!!! @vortex @carved !!!
  18. 9 points
    My word.. Vortex sliced exactly where we would want it to be sliced!
  19. 8 points
    What's catching my attention is the lack of zonality in the extended low res GFS. It used to be that no matter how blocked the high res was, as soon as low res hit it'd ramp up the Atlantic and blow the blocking away like it was a cobweb in the breeze. It could be that the GFS has been updated and no longer has that bias though. @Steve Murr will probably know more since he knows the models like the back of his own hand
  20. 8 points
  21. 8 points
    GFS is excellent at 180 hrs Best output of the day so far up to this point at 180 hrs. By 192 hrs we're opening up a split vortex... This run could be epic...
  22. 8 points
    Incredible. To my eye, that’s a fetch of cold that is over 3x the entire breadth of the USA !! Many people, including most of my friends who are more or less oblivious to the weather and have no knowledge at all of past events such as 1963, 78 or even 87/91 were alienated and gobsmacked at the copious and drifting snow back in February. That was only really a 3-5 day affair too. So it would be very interesting to see how they would cope or react to a full month of winter brutality! This December could well be the month that delivers the test! We shall see.
  23. 7 points
    Yes a lot of those milder options seem very implausible, like an escape artist being put in a straight jacket, chained and plunged into a tank of icy water but popping up free, bone dry and smiling with his assistant 30 seconds later. The more plausible less cold options go awry before the tank of water is wheeled on stage. Crap analogy but I'm tired.
  24. 7 points
    Probably the best chart we will see all Winter. There will be some excited boys and girls this morning, until ECM arrives anyway Edit Yeah Crewe and we have seen a few FI's in our time!
  25. 7 points
    pretty much identical for here too lets hope the trend continues GEFS looking great (pretty much all are blocked these were some of the better ones for UK snow / cold)
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