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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/08/21 in all areas

  1. The very few cloudier days get a discussion going down here! The last rain that fell was about five or six weeks back, and with a few thundery showers before that earlier in June, so close enough to the theme of a Mediterranean summer even though there has not been any true sustained heatwaves of 35 to 40C (and upwards) beyond a couple of brief spells in July. Its no guesswork involved that the two periods, so far, of this summer, that have seen a departure from the changeable cooler and sometimes very wet pattern that UK and other parts of NW and central europe have seen have coincided with momentum shifts upwards between the tropics and extra tropics. The first being in the opening ten days to fortnight of June and more recently the mid to latter part of July. The downturn from mid June to the first part of July, and the latest one on-going, being a result of the high frequency tropical cycle returning to mirroring an underlying increasingly Nina-esque standing wave once again and associated generally rather lower than average atmospheric angular momentum tendency. The Global Wind Oscillation phase plot, (a depiction of wind-flow inertia within the atmospheric circulation which gives a useful diagnostic guide to jet stream behaviour) and also the angular momentum anomalies themselves (that the GWO mirrors in its orbits) both illustrate those two relatively short upward cycles within otherwise supressed tendency. Its a deliberately simplified illustration (with rather pedestrian hand-work) but it does provide a mirror for correlation purposes. In synoptic terms (for summer wavelengths) this ebb and flow pattern revolves around the movements of a stronger than average Azores high sub tropical ridge (the one that gives the stable sunny and very warm/hot conditions to southern europe). However, with tendencies for this to retrogress its influence across more northern parts of europe due to upstream wind-flow inertia decelerating c/o rossby waves amplification occurring across the Pacific when tropical connection suppression takes hold across this section of the tropics and sub tropics. The net effect of recurring Pacific amplification is to keep re-setting the downstream pattern to a trough/ridge/trough pattern - with the final ridge /trough arrangement being across the west/central atlantic and north western european sectors respectively. As suppression briefly wanes across the pacific, c/o eastward passage of the high frequency tropical cycle increasing wind-flow across the Pacific and sending the amplifying rossby wavelength downstream, then the trough over UK/NW and central europe is replaced by ridging for the temporary period that this interference with the background base state exists. Its hard to see a break to this pattern cycle rut at present, and with signs that a La Nina-esque hold on the wider hemispheric pattern may strengthen again heading into autumn. This makes it likely that Atlantic ridging will continue to dominate proceedings overall, though as per the previous post, its worth watching out to see how tropical storm activity intervenes if, following any recurving tropical storm (from within the Equatorial Atlantic) another intra-seasonal kelvin wave crosses the tropics and a further temporary rise in angular momentum occurs. This maybe more likely late this month and perhaps into September. Other than this, any hotter spells and more southerly winds (for UK/NW Europe) seem harder to come by and restricted to breakaway ridging transferring eastward ahead of main troughs and associated advection of brief plumes. Though again, this sequence could be further amplified or augmented if any tropical activity gets caught up in such a sequence. Lots more lovely sunshine and customary warmth to come down here ( nothing likely to top up the water bore-hole for some time yet), but a case of making the most of the drier, warmer and more settled spells when they come for the majority interest of the forum in the UK
    16 points
  2. I will continue with my positive comments and leave the negative stuff to others !!..and again, there are reasons to be positive regarding the GEFS 6z, sure some of it is crud but on balance, the mean improves quite significantly, especially across southern u k so I would say there is at least some fine and very warm weather to look forward to further into august, from the Azores but also potential Scandi heights?.. and also some plume potential too! ⛈ 🕶
    13 points
  3. Wow that's some chart from ECM...Huge amounts of Blocking surrounding the UK..with 2 lows either side of us..perhaps the South could do OK here! But those Low pressure areas seem to be giving the ops a little bit of an headache with there projections! Shall we say...perhaps best we keep an open mind in the coming 10 days. Enjoy your evenings,I've had enough for now.. Some big rainfall amounts in the next few days,do take care on the roads...now I sound like your bloody mother @Daniel* and @Zak M you guys should post more often.. always good to hear your thoughts.
    11 points
  4. I’m a bit late to the party but the Gfs 6z op isn’t all bad for sure...discuss?!
    11 points
  5. Come on mate that's a little over the top! Zero chance? No output data on average is gonna lead to those stats! Firstly the op isn't necessarily backed up by the mean,it looks a tad of an outlier by day 9 and 10! And secondly if your gonna say hopefully a mild and dry Winter your gonna send half of the members on here straight to the samaritans! Was the Exeter update revised again! Settled conditions more likely to develop further North! You guys up there will be happy! Been a decent season for you.And hotter spells more probable later in the month! It's all going on,but in the shorter term I think the outlook is far from certain...and most definitely NOT nailed on.
    11 points
  6. A discrete cell has popped up just west of here and there is more building just south of it.
    11 points
  7. Not to worry, Chris, as not one of your predicted 'washouts' has actually happened. Well, at least not here. Neither for that matter have any of your horribly cold outlooks materialised . . . hence June & July's combined CET! And, should today's GEFS 06Z ensembles be anything to go by, August looks unlike living down to your expectations either. Though, it is of course possible:
    10 points
  8. I don't think a person in the UK currently could be getting bored of constant blue skies,I think I've managed 7 or 8 days since April!
    10 points
  9. Looking at the GEFS 0z for approx mid month, the mean looks good for southern u k and I counted 4 potential plumes and a decent number of anticyclonic members so it could become very interesting indeed!.....watch this.........................space!!!! ⛈ 🐿
    10 points
  10. It could only ever happen on a gfs run!
    9 points
  11. Not a bad GEFS 06Z this morning if, like me, you find endless blue skies a tad boring, and the resulting sunburn uncomfortable:
    9 points
  12. No problems Mushy...just one thing letting you down though! You need a little more modest confidence in your ability Only joking mate.. I think your pushing the boat out with 30c for Xmas...its a struggle in July...and let's not upset the cold chasing crew just yet
    8 points
  13. After just having watched the latest MetO 10-Day Trend, and looked through the latest GFS run, I think I'll hang-up my beach towel?!
    7 points
  14. Following a period of trough domination, the GEFS 12z mean indicates we may catch a break from the unsettled weather during the second half of next week, especially further south...next week May not be as bad as some hope.. !
    7 points
  15. We are seeing true beauty for those of us who want to walk the long road to winter.
    7 points
  16. My report for Loose WWW.BBC.CO.UK Loose, Kent Another funnel in Maidstone.
    7 points
  17. The 6Z op brings that trough further to the North of the UK than the ECM op does. And once again it really does not get the backing of the mean! Worth baring in mind the means are the averages of multiple runs,so a better guideline for the more extensive period! So the situation perhaps still needs to be kept under consideration for later next week! But at this stage still know real backing for the operational evolutions!
    7 points
  18. Yes flooding is the main concern as apposed to electrical activity with maybe a funnel cloud or two thrown in... ------------------------------------ Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 04 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 05 Aug 2021 ISSUED 06:54 UTC Wed 04 Aug 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan A slack surface pressure pattern dominates once again across much of the UK/Ireland, with subtle mid-level troughing. As with previous days, cool air in the mid-levels combined with surface heating through the day will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE in an environment with modestly-steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered showers are likely to develop in places, tied to low-level convergence (such as sea breeze) and orographic forcing. Lower surface dewpoints in a zone from Cambridgeshire - Northamptonshire - Humber and across parts of southern Scotland could lead to a relative minima in shower coverage in these areas. For much of England and Wales, convection will tend to be limited by a capping inversion around ~650mb (~13,000ft) as warming aloft occurs in advance of the Atlantic frontal system arriving overnight; therefore areas that retain colder air in the mid-levels for longest will have the greatest potential for deeper convection and some sporadic lightning strikes, i.e. north Midlands / northern England. That said, even here convection could still be a little restricted in depth. Flow will be weak through much of the cloud-bearing layer resulting in slow storm movement which could lead to prolonged heavy downpours on a local scale, bringing the risk of localised surface water flooding. Therefore the main hazard will be locally high rainfall totals, even in the absence of much in the way of lightning. Some evidence of backed low-level winds, coupled with vorticity stretching along convergence zones, could lead to a couple of funnel clouds. Across Scotland and Northern Ireland, stronger southwesterly flow aloft should allow individual cells to move slightly faster, but back-building or multiple cells running parallel in the flow could still lead to locally high rainfall totals - especially along northern coastal parts of Ulster and Caithness/Sutherland. Again, the main hazard will be locally high rainfall totals, regardless if there is much in the way of lightning or not. During the overnight period, strong shear will develop across southern, central and western Ireland, with backed low-level winds and perhaps overlapping with a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Frontal rain will spread northeastwards during the night, but it is possible later that should any surface-based deep convection manage to develop then this could produce some sporadic lightning and pose the risk of an isolated tornado - but confidence is rather low. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
    7 points
  19. We got married last Tuesday so I think that's a good sign Fingers crossed for a belter of a winter all round. It was quite mild today but the light was rubbish for pics at Loch Lubnaig:
    7 points
  20. I would settle for perturbation 2...although p3 ain’t bad..but I don’t fancy p4.. p2 would make august for me...
    6 points
  21. Well stone the crows mush...I never thought I would see the day when you didn't agree with me My main point was the uncertainty regarding where Low pressure may end up next week.
    6 points
  22. They seem very keen on that Low pushing SE later next week and sustaining the unsettled conditions Pete.. but tbh barring the plume event last month,they've been very much out of kilter with there forecasts...a lot of pushing things back and re wording of warm then hot conditions. With very low confidence being branded very frequently! Only goes to show how difficult it is to forecast a 10 day period and especially beyond in the UK. I think the ECM is OK though,and it looks warmer,but for me...UNCERTAINTY is the key word this evening..YET AGAIN!
    6 points
  23. Evening all Do we call that a "Greenland plume" ?
    6 points
  24. Good ECM this evening if you're looking for some warm / very warm weather. Even wafting up some warm 850s at the end.
    6 points
  25. ECM continues to provide potential for some very warm weather and settled weather early next week it might not be durable but we would take it. The area of uncertainty is highest with this area of low pressure it’s behaviour will be critical. Models tend to struggle a lot in these situations so don’t take anything as a gospel.
    6 points
  26. Check out this swirl as the rain approached x8 speed timelapse040821-2.mp4
    6 points
  27. Pretty much agree with Dan's forecast. Timing of upper air warmth limiting cloud tops looks to be slightly wrong on modelling so perhaps better chance of storms than originally forecast. Key areas north Midlands , Yorkshire, Merseyside along with parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Eyes are then drawn to Friday. Temperatures are limited so severe storm possibility is limited but an interesting scenario. Scenario is likely to change as we get closer to Friday. I did notice some instability for Iceland , Norway today which is likely to enrage the no storms club.
    6 points
  28. Blue skies all the way here. I'm on Scratby ⛱ in Norfolk, probably the last decent day. Packing and cleaning tomorrow and then the Friday drive home looks like it could be quite eventful.
    6 points
  29. GEFS 00Z ensembles don't look at all bad:
    6 points
  30. Ecm mean and the op are pretty much in agreement this evening,bar the odd bump in the road regarding temps later in the period. Definitely last one from me as a fistful of dollars as just started..
    5 points
  31. 5 points
  32. ECM mean and spread looking a fair bit more positive for those in the South at least here at T240: Good chance of highish pressure hanging on in the south, but the main message from me is that this is not sorted much earlier say about T120, so wait and see.
    5 points
  33. My message would be, don’t give up on summer!!!..certainly give up on the England cricket team but NOT on summer!! ...if anything, the GEFS 12z mean improves further beyond mid month and there are some stunning perturbations...all I can say is, hope I’m right to be optimistic about summery weather returning...time will tell!! 🐿
    5 points
  34. You forget....everybody is different, your cold is another warm, your warm is another's hot. 16c i wouldn't dream of putting a coat on, like many wouldn't, its not as you put it a struggle with anything warmer, its just a difference in tolerance. Your tolerance of cold i suspect is very low, that's fine, its not a struggle its just a difference in how you feel the temp. And before you say anything i work daily in temp/humidity that less than 1% of the UK population have ever experienced. I don't struggle i prefer, as do most.
    5 points
  35. I think we are pretty much back to where we were five weeks ago, the decent weather persistently 10-12days away and not getting any closer. As I said previously the models are playing silly buggers trying to build heights from the south west multiple times only to over read the signal and allow for troughing to slide in. While not wet here yet this month could be very poor indeed. Also I’m not a fan of the mean, especially in the medium range, 3 or 4 big outliers with high pressure parked out east will drag the mean to make it look like the pressure pattern is improving from the south west. In fact the day 10 mean average chart for the entire summer period would probably look like that. ie a weak ridge over the south, south west.
    5 points
  36. I'm starting to doubt those means a little right now mate...Two many ops are throwing that spanner in the works regarding later next week! Perhaps later this month we still have hope,going on Longer range output,and the thoughts of Tams and Exeter for instance. Bugger it I'm still gonna pitch that tent in the backgarden,just to annoy the neighbours if nothing else..
    5 points
  37. Proper UK summers day, perfect temps, bit of sun at times bit of shade at times, nice breeze. Something for everybody, definitely nothing to moan about at all.
    5 points
  38. Was warm and partly cloudy till early afternoon then clouded over. Just had a big clap of thunder then 10 seconds later the heavens opened... Had a few loud rumbles and had heavy rain for 10 minutes.
    5 points
  39. Localized reports of flooding around the High Peak from parts of Chapel-en-le-Frith, Hayfield, Chinley, and the A6 Bypass affected. Add on the midday & holiday traffic and i'm glad I didn't need to travel out the house to watch it all unfold.
    5 points
  40. Late summer and early autumn is often unsettled in a La Niña year sadly. Once it starts going downhill in August, it rarely recovers... think 2017. Good news though is that late autumn into winter is often drier with a higher chance of colder conditions. Although I bet all it would take is a hurricane to mix things up a bit and help deliver something more August-like.
    5 points
  41. Excel -> July 21 CET.xlsx PDF -> July 2021 Summary.pdf Monthly Over 1 correct entrant this month, emmett garland. With 2 more 0.2c out. rwtwm and seaside 60 Seasonal A largely new 1-2-3 this month. With Monthly winner emmett garland taking the lead. Overall Again a few changes this month. Stargazer up to 1st from 4th. Reef 2nd from 1st and Polar Gael 3rd from 9th. However with only 5 points covering the Top 5, this is completely wide open this year.
    5 points
  42. @Zak MGood to hear from you again, here's my breakdown of a lot of models. GFS has a brief spell of warmth before more low pressures move through and then a good chance for more warmth on the cards although it is further out. ECM is good in bringing a more prolonged spell of heat but only for the luckier areas although it looks mostly the same for the future, perhaps we're having some agreement further out on what's on the cards. GEM yet again doing mostly the same things as the other models which is interesting this far out, perhaps to a leer extent though than the other models within this short comment on here. Xander
    4 points
  43. What happens is a plume of air from the Azores HP is carried north and gets cut off as LP develops behind it. I've never seen anything like that on a chart - just thought it was worth a mention.
    4 points
  44. And there it is. The slow painful death of summer 2021. Though some storms to look forward to.
    4 points
  45. Regarding the above I'm going to stay out of any debate regarding how bad conditions have been...for me personally they've been bang on average at best! For some in the South they've been very poor,and more the so,especially being as these are the areas that you would expect to be getting the warmest and driest of the conditions. On the other hand some of our Northern members are probably wondering what all the fuss is about so far this Summer! With plenty of summery type conditions since June,and going on latest Exeter guidelines....perhaps another bite at the cherry too. And just to sum up the UKMO take on things this morning...We are looking at a largely unsettled period from now through till Sunday. Heavy and quite widespread showers forming,which could give localised large totals! Perhaps less in the way of showers come the latter part of the Weekend,as a ridge develops from the SW. Early next week should see a settling down of conditions under that ridge,with some areas receiving decent sunny spells,and I would have thought quite warm. There are hints of Low pressure bringing further spells of unsettled conditions towards the end of next week and if this comes off,then the Weekend could end up quite poor! I'm not totally convinced of the exact location of that trough though! Further North would mean the South remaining largely fine...further South would result in the North faring better! So still open to debate. As ever more runs needed Anyway I'm about to pitch my tent in the back garden...thats my idea of a staycation this year! The weather and the pigeons better behave
    4 points
  46. Nothing particularly heavy but heard thunder whilst painting bench in garage… sun coming back out… very heavy stuff was east and south of here… heaviest seemed to be chapel/Whaley Bridge….
    4 points
  47. VID_20210803_114304.mp4 Around 3 inches fell in less than an hour. The fast flowing water had large pieces of tarmac and even 3 parts of a brick trundling down the hill. Short clip of how things were after it had calmed down just a little. ... That was fun
    4 points
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