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  1. 22 likes
    The usual (probably quite dull by now) advice from me We should not be too quick to dismiss a single deterministic run, even if it is out of kilter with its own suite (caveat: I have not yet seen the EPS suite), particularly given the higher resolution of the deterministic run in trying to resolve some delicate balances over the atlantic. We simply don’t know at this stage where to judge this run and will need to wait for further runs. My second and definitely tiresome piece of advice is to be very cautious when looking beyond day 5 in the Greenland locale and particularly with regards to any suggestion of increased heights (those lovely greens and yellows on the H500 charts) - we have seen season after season a bias towards increasing heights too much in this area beyond day 5, only for this to correct itself the closer to T+0 we get. At some point, like a stopped clock, the models will sniff out one of these Greenland height rises correctly (and I do fancy that to be this year incidentally), but for now I would urge caution before we drive ourselves towards an early season meltdown. With Brexit coming Nick might struggle to get the Prozac over the border.
  2. 17 likes
    Very cold with some Sleet / snow across the UK... Wait to you see the 850's
  3. 14 likes
    Lovely ECM 168 ( Euros on a par at 144 ) which is always a good thing..
  4. 12 likes
    Good morning all. Long time no chat. What interesting synoptics these are. It very much 'feels like' winter at the moment, and there's a persistent pattern for blocking. The 0z GFS hints at a developing Greenland High, but we've also seen regular sight of blocking to the north, around Svalbard, as well as Siberia. We continue to remain on the northern side of the Polar Front Jet, and this allows northerly and easterly patterns as well as blustery and cold north-westerlies. I know you all know this, I'm writing it for my own benefit too Mean CET is currently -0.6Cc below the 1961-1990 average and that's only going to continue heading down judging by current runs. Does a cold November pressage anything for winter proper? Sadly not. But it's pretty raw out there at times.
  5. 9 likes
    At 192 hrs time for changing on next run ,sit back relax STellas and sausage baps all round .But very interesting times at present even before winter begins .
  6. 7 likes
    A much better ECM op from the 12s....quite a bit of entrenched cold air in place.... Now let's see where it sits within the ens!! The op was a warm outlier this morning... Is it gonna be a cold outlier this evening!! Stay tuned for more unfolding dramas this evening..... In the events from hell...... We like to Call.... WINTER!
  7. 7 likes
    Quick stop off at the Wallace Monument to let the dogs have an hour out of the car. Now off to see the snowy hills
  8. 7 likes
    ECM op defo seems an outlier looking at the mean, the mean looks far more like the GFS. Also, the mean improves when hoping from 216 to 240 which makes me think that many are showing some good easterly feeds.
  9. 6 likes
    Model uncertainty continues (what's new!)..example yesterday's Gfs 12z vs todays from more or less the same timeframe..conclusion?...more runs needed!! PS..I'm temporarily reactionless..lol
  10. 6 likes
    Pretty atrocious gfs 12z!!!low after low and rainfall after rainfall!!just does not seem to the end!!this for me has been the wettest autumn i have witnessed in many a year!!
  11. 4 likes
    Here cool, cloudy with showery rain later in the afternoon. 3.9C The Crieff Road South of Aberfeldy this morning. Second picture is off the same road taken by Philip Struthers. Nice picture of snow but can you see his dog in it? (Dalmation).
  12. 4 likes
    Not as amplified this run By 174, and doesn’t look like the Atlantic systems will slide like the 00z. See what happens but I’m pretty sure it won’t be as good as the earlier run To caveat that however, the Siberian end looks better aligned should this go well over the next few frames. 192 definitely not without interest and thankfully nothing like the ECM
  13. 4 likes
    10 day ENS mean, I think the forum may have plenty of comments this morning
  14. 3 likes
    GEFS 12z at T300: And still absolutely no way is that an organised trop vortex! What I have noticed in recent days is that the uncertainty is all on the southeastern hemisphere now, as shown in the spread (standard deviation) plot, that's the blue/purple one for newbies. So still no certainty on how this will pan out, the strat charts hold a lot of promise, here based on 0z runs: One pesky ensemble member close to a technical SSW at the end. Very interesting and we are still 20 days away from the start of winter.
  15. 3 likes
    LOL @CatacolI should be happy actually I am saving a lot of money not having to heat up the house in to which I moved in 7 weeks ago. So for another 2 weeks it looks like only a moderate heating demand. Looking at outputs like GFS or ECMWF it looks like a very late start to skiing season in Slovakia, I dont complain much as I only do cross country skiing and for that there is never enough snow until January anyway. There still can be a surprise turn of events if a favourable short wave develops in eastern Russia or Easter Scandi, why not? Some GEFS 12Z have similar ideas. Perhaps the reason why I am getting impatient are imaginations of waking up and looking out from terrace to snowy scenery, some October sunsets were spectacular and also a bit of frost was nice to see a week ago back. Just for stats I know a lot of UK got rain so far in Autumn, my station has 110mm so far in November and another 44mm are forecast for tomorrow evening. Most of that rain is coming from being on the other side of the fronts that bring rain to UK, we are on the mild side of the low, you on the cold side, yet nearly as much rain as you
  16. 3 likes
    December 2010 really was something, We had days of proper blizzards here (where the air is full of snow) with drifts up to the window sills. The snow was very cold/dry. Temp dropped to -22c one night. Rob McElwee one the the best forecasters of our time
  17. 3 likes
    Not the greatest set of 06Zs...but, hey, it's still early doors? And, as our Heavenly Father has taught us, we can bin it anyway!
  18. 3 likes
    A pretty respectable ECMWF run for those who like the chilly conditions. Maybe a bit of a drier, less unsettled break between 168 to 192 hours, as the run throws up a triangular ridge North and North-Eastwards through Western UK. A bit of breathing-space from all the wet weather that’s gone on (though there may be some showers, possibly wintry on high ground, over Eastern UK) Another thing to add - regarding those Norwegian Sea isobar kinks and shortwaves feb1991blizzard was talking about earlier on the 12Z GFS, this is what would need to be watched out for: The black circle marking out the kinks and developing shortwaves in the Easterly to North-Easterly flow on that run. This then developing into a more circular closed off Low Pressure system to the North of Scotland submerging the Easterly to its doom. These kinks/shortwaves, when they behave themselves (which could be quite rare), can... 1). Bring organised areas of sleet and snows showers, or longer spells of sleet and snow. But they can also... 1). Destroy Easterlies 2). Steal the wintry weather fans’ snow and deep cold 3). Cause laptops to be thrown out of windows
  19. 2 likes
    I think there are lots to positive about, the outlook is still average/ cooler than average. Yes, it's unfortunately not a Winter Wonderland but I'm just happy that we finally have average/cooler temperatures - (where they should be). I think we've done pretty well to achieve this stretch of cooler than average and seasonable conditions. I'm just glad to see the weather which isn't milder than average! Also, it's not like the Continent has been plunged into the freezer and we're missing out, there's just any cold air, so I suppose it is a bit of solace.
  20. 2 likes
    Utterly relentless just across the border too John. We are desperate for a dry spell now...
  21. 2 likes
    Sorry I'm not understanding the qustion considering the post you are quoting
  22. 2 likes
    I posted an article on this about 11 years ago but the links are now broken. The maximum at Kew was just -4.4C on the 1st February 1956 Ross-on-Wye's and Bristol's maximum that day was just -5.6C
  23. 2 likes
    Back from my slumber for another winter rollercoaster Looking like a colder than average winter coming up. Must say, I haven't enjoyed this autumn at all. Absolute soaker of a season with very little sun. The old SAD disorder coming out nice and early this year. But we're only 5 weeks away from the days lengthening again, and I can't wait. I love winter, but only when it's cold and snowy. I even love the fog and those crisp, sunny days. But the previous ones have lacked seemingly all of those aspects of traditional winter weather. I have high hopes for this winter. The law of averages suggests that we will get a colder than average winter sooner or later. Let's hope it's this year
  24. 2 likes
  25. 2 likes
    If I may add a thought. It looks very much like frontal wave development Mind all pretty irrelevant at that range
  26. 2 likes
    Nice morning for a stroll into the nearby countryside at Hartshill Hayes. A few pics I took with my phone camera. The late Autumn sunshine picking out the lingering colours. A very welcome blue sky day after all the rain.
  27. 2 likes
    It's great to see all the gang back on the strat thread - I did nag @chionomaniac to join in the fun. @Recretosgreat blog on Severe EU and always love seeing what data crunching . RAM abusing graphics are up next. @zdlawrence prettty much a privilege to have you here Zac, your website is a real benchmark for Strat monitoring after years of peering at the Berlin charts. I think the testament is that even a year on the 3D work is catching the attention of esteemed pros such as Mike Ventrice. I loved the fact that #stratpants appeared this season when last year we had saw the same split troosers ( Scottish for Jeans / Trousers / etc). Best contribute with some commentary too other than say what a great season ahead, am personally loving Novembers now - it's the chase of the what happens next as much as the will it won't it herald negative AO/NAO or a decent winter.. By that I mean the down-welling question and the concentration of minds on this. Stop and reflect for a moment on how we were only 5 years ago working out precursors or Displacement / Split Dynamics.. Loving this ! Gnarly old vortex aint enjoying the Anticyclonic stuff happening right now.. can't do what it wants... Get your crayons out... Not a forecast there are two other years in the mix for Solar QBO similarity...however 95 worth a look..
  28. 1 like
    Its all about to go wrong now though at 192 - knew it - its that dreaded stationary shortwave off the coast of Norway - its struck again.
  29. 1 like
    tci=38.2 billion watss neutron count=9.9%=high
  30. 1 like
    Mmmm, is that the chance of a cold late Nov gone not the GFS has given up this run, who knows but you just watch the ECM flip tonight!! There has been no professional forecast that I’ve seen mention a cold late Nov so I’m pretty sure nothing brewing on their models just yet. The wording on the METO long range has never changed for days, they are good at sitting back and just watching things unfold - I’d have wrote headlines like the daily express over the past few days!! EC46 out later, will that stick with the +NAO again I wonder!!
  31. 1 like
    Anyone know any more info on this event? Saw this picture of Herne Bay Seafront completely frozen up with the timestamp of 2nd Feb 1956. Had a little look on the reanalysis charts and it seems like a very cold easterly. If anyone could shine some info on this, it would be appreciated. Thanks.
  32. 1 like
    I will copy my post from the snow streamers thread as it contains my favourite charts and also some extra info. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2010/snow-and-low-temperatures-december-2010---met-office.pdf UK Snow 2010 WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Many parts of the UK experienced significant snow events from late November to early December 2010. This case-study focuses on the period 28 November to 2 December. I also vividly remember seeing the local stations reporting -15 C overnight on the 2nd / 3rd December 2010 as shown in the chart on the above pdf a truly amazing achievement for here as we rarely get -10 C even on the coldest winters nights Another thing on my winter wishlist every year is for a white Christmas, the last technical white Christmas here was 2009 as a weak band of snow reached here in the evening but 2010 also had lying snow so will include charts for both years.
  33. 1 like
    My prediction for January 15th 2020.
  34. 1 like
    Just rained here last night but we do have some snow on the hills. On Saturday night it got down to -1.1c my lowest temperature so far since last winter and last night not as cold at 2.4c.
  35. 1 like
    Yellow warning for Rain extended. "Area of warning has been expanded to include more of West Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire." MO. Heavy showers for flood hit areas. Another Yellow further east for Thursday too https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk?_ga=2.114717191.1070575665.1573462397-201694002.1572897202
  36. 1 like
  37. 1 like
    Isn't that just one perturbation, there's like 20? It's like I could pick one perturbation for snow in Herne Bay.
  38. 1 like
    UKMO and GFS quite different at T120, here: You could see a cross polar ridge vortex shredder eventually developing on GFS, but more difficult from here on UKMO. Edit, more than a passing resemblance to a human head at T162, including ear: But we'll have to wait for my cross polar ridge!
  39. 1 like
    ‘Cor lummy! Leave Ceiriog Valley for Manchester on’t train Saturday am - car lock frozen, crisp and glorious frosty morning, come back to not inconsiderable amount of snow.
  40. 1 like
    Sleety/wet wet snow out now sticking to the bin. Edit: big flakes snow now looks like the remains of this morning`s snow not going anywhere,frost by dawn,it will be icy.
  41. 1 like
  42. 1 like
    There is a big explanation mark over N France
  43. 1 like
    This time a sudden abrupt change, from a rain to snow event, in Dec.2009 DEC.22nd 2009. Remember this event very well, it occurred on the Monday before Xmas and caused chaos on the London road network, during the evening rush-hour. After a spell of very cold weather, with some snow, slightly milder air had pushed into southern most counties and the London area, overnight Sun into Mon. On Mon 22nd the temp. rose to about 3c/4c in the Croydon area and on getting to work at lunchtime, I noticed a little rain in the air, mixed with a bit of wintriness too. It then turned mostly dry, for a couple of hours before rain started again around 3.30 or so. Slightly colder air that had been sitting to the N and W of London, gradually seeped back S and E again. Around this time, reports started coming through of sleet/snow falling on the S.E.Regional Thread, notably from the higher parts of the Surrey/Kent/London border, Biggin Hill etc. More and more reports started coming in from this area, from locations with less elevation, and around 4 p.m, noticed the heavy rain was starting to turn to snow, outside the office window here in Croydon. Within a few minutes the changeover was complete and the roads soon turned white, traffic chaos then ensued. My daughter left our office at around 4.30, as the snow had begun in earnest. Travelling in her car, she was to move only about a quarter of a mile in an hour and finally got home at about 8, a journey of some 5 miles. The roads were absolutely gridlocked, with many cars and some buses abandoned and left strewn across the road. I left the office myself at around 6.30 and finally arrived home at about 10.30, a journey of 9 to10 miles, with the last 3 miles being completed on foot, as a couple of jacknifed buses had closed the main road, just north of Bromley (Kent/London border.) Many of the hills in this area, Anerley, Corkscrew, Gravel, etc (for those of you that know them) were all closed due to the number of vehicles that had been abandoned and jacknifed, whilst trying to negotiate them. Although only a couple of inches had fallen, the sudden onset of the snow, just in time for the evening rush-hour, made this event a memorable one but for all the wrong reasons, as many commuters had their own horror story to tell, re. their journeys home that night in the London area. Not from my pov though! A great rain to snow event! Thanks again, for all your contributions, keep 'em coming. Tom.
  44. 1 like
    We had a low pressure move up from the SW on the 18th, us South Central folk did very well from this because upto that point the NOV/DEC spell of 2010 had not delivered fully, only a few dustings. (y)
  45. 1 like
    I'd thought about 1985 already, so I am pleased to see that our Chis(el)hurst thread host has posted on it here already It was a classic period of weather for sure. I also remember the snow of the end of the week and weekend of 7/8/9/10 Feb. The weekend before I had been on a lovely cosy break in the pretty countryside of the Cotswolds. The weather was actually very mild and dry. This was the chart for that time However the highly amplified pattern gave a clue as to the changes that were going to occur during that week as another phase of -AO downwelling was underway and this was fully evident by the 6th with pressure falling to the south west with the start of undercutting of a renewed swathe of cold air arriving from the north and north east. This set up the beginning of the classic battleground that Tom refers to above. There was just one winner! Stange how the memory can work, but I actually remember I was at evening college midweek that week and the wind was starting to back into the SE and then the E with dewpoints falling and cold rain indicated to turn to sleet and wet snow. The undercut is indeed clearly shown here as we head into the Thursday of that week. Its funny how joining net weather has taught me what I saw happening back then as the wind was swinging into the east. At the time I just excitedly remembering the forecasters on the telly starting to talk about snow coming - but I wouldn't have had the faintest clue about dewpoints and downwelling and undercutting etc back then The wintry ppn died out for a while..but then late on the 8th a renewed front disrupted from the main trough to the SW and created the conditions that Tom outlined above. Much fun I remember was had in powder snow that weekend It made quite a contrast from the conditions of just a week before. The Sunday 10th I remember going to a sports event in the Basingstoke area under blue skies after the snow had cleared overnight Saturday with blowing and glittering powder snow and a biting easterly wind These bright, sunny bitterly cold conditions lasted into the new working week Thereafter, a gradual rise in temperature took place by day under sunny skies with very frosty nights. Snow cover gradually disappeared, but traces were still left in the sunshine a week or so after the snowstorm
  46. 1 like
    Fond memories of this one. Football match abandoned. Car Journey home abandoned.An absolute pasting of snow for North East Scotland. Power Cuts, Blizzards, everything..everything..
  47. 1 like
    Although I havnt posted a chart from that great wintry spell in late Nov/Dec 2010,Isolated Frost did earlier. The snow didnt arrive down here until the first few days of Dec., here is a favourite snow video of this area, from the hilly, southern part of the Borough, Biggin Hill. Tom.
  48. 1 like
    Another favourite archive chart has to be from Dec.1981. 8th DEC.1981. After a couple of failed northerlys, finally a rapid rise in pressure over Greenland, allied to a wave depression forming on a cold front sweeping south, over N.Ireland, ushered in the start of that long wintry spell in Dec.81. The small low tracked SE, to exit the CS English coast, during the morning, unleashing bitter Arctic air throughout the UK. I was living in an Inner London borough at the time and awoke to heavy rain, which turned to snow, during the morning rush-hour and finally deposited just short of 2 inches, not a wonderful amount but very respectable for my location, at the time, and considering the amount of heavy rain, we had initially. Still remains the best rain>snow event, I've witnessed. I've included it here more for what it signified in being the catalyst for introducing such a momentous Dec., in terms of longevity for a wintry spell. Tom
  49. 1 like
    "I can well believe it. Our back door was frozen shut! (I also remember folks queueing - perfectly calmly I hasten to add - at the local corner shop, waiting for a bread delivery to arrive. And the big Sainsbury's a couple of miles away ran out of yeast, because people were making their OWN bread!)" Hi Anvil, Just short of 1 foot of level snow here re. Jan 1987, in the Bromley area. Remember making my way to Bromley South station, one night during that spell, trying to get a train home, to 5 miles or so west of here but to be told nothing was running due to abandoned rolling stock, further into Kent. South-Eastern had tried running diesel "ghost trains", to keep the lines open but they also got into trouble and nothing could get east of the St.Mary Cray/Swanley area. Tom.
  50. 1 like
    Weds January 6th 2010 at Midnight... A trough coming down from the north stalled and gave us 16 hours of snow, most of which was heavy we had 28cm
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