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Showing content with the highest reputation since 19/02/19 in Posts

  1. 29 points
    Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time !
  2. 25 points
    Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days. Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England. Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn. (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)
  3. 21 points
    I felt a sudden uncontrollable urge to say...BOOM..BOOM..BOOM..sincere apologies!
  4. 20 points
    Highly unlikely. Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)? Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".
  5. 19 points
    Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c in places!
  6. 18 points
    Calling it a day! Towell has been thrown No lasting cold 850s in view again and have been trying to hang in there, still believing since the big bust in January! Was giving it till Sunday but calling it now, hoping as I write this something may still show soon but my faith in model analysis has been broken. Sad seeing the beeb showing the bfte last year this morning. Siberia! Unreal graphics on forecasts. Red warnings, (m74) closed. I was on route to Scotland the day after. Made it but couldn't see anything bar the poles on the a66.☺ Enough reminiscing. See u for the thunderstorms during the heat or December for another 47 hunt. Thanks to you all for your posts. Good and bad. Hot and cold.
  7. 18 points
    Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter! After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall
  8. 17 points
  9. 17 points
    Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west across the UK from tomorrow. The change comes as the jet stream, which has diverted well to the north of the UK over the past week, shifts south, strengthens and takes aim at the UK over coming days. The strengthening of the jet stream is likely linked to an upper ridge pushing north across Alaska and the arctic before dropping down across NW Canada, kicking out very cold air here and northern Canada southwards across central and eastern US later this week and into next week. This will in turn cause a steepening thermal gradient across NE USA and out across NW Atlantic strengthening the jet stream across the North Atlantic. Over the weekend, the models forecast an increasingly disturbed spell, as the developmental left exit of a strong jet streak (where there is strong divergence aloft and convergence at the surface) moves toward the UK/Ireland and will likely to allow rapid cyclogenesis to take place over the Atlantic with a deepening low pressure system headed towards NW UK for Saturday, though GFS, UKMO and EC differ on depth, EC has more of a wave, GFS and UKMO a deeper closed low passing Scotland. Another low looks to develop in a trough in the jet which looks to move further south across southern Britain for later on Sunday, this could deepen as it approaches the UK too. Potential for a named low if one these lows deepens sufficiently to produce severe gales. Then the models suggest unsettled cool to sometimes cold zonality next week, as the jet stream shifts south of the UK, the depth of cold of the polar maritime westerly flow differing between 00z GFS and EC, sub -5C 850mb temps spreading east a lot further south than EC, which keeps the sub -5C air generally over northern UK. So question marks over how far south any wintry precipitation can develop, so would hold off getting too excited for snow away from northern hills. Even the colder GFS shows little in the way of wintriness away from hills in the north and west, though some low-level snow possible in the far north. But, with air pollution levels rather high today bringing poor air quality to much of England, Wales and southern Scotland, thanks to high pressure inversion and lack of wind, it may perhaps be some relief to get some clean Atlantic air blowing in by the weekend! Though the unseasonably warm sunshine will probably be missed and unlikely to return for a while.
  10. 17 points
    ECM looks wintry at day 9-10 with a slightly undercutty scenario- also a dusting over the uk @day 6
  11. 17 points
    Outlook - Warm, very warm for a time, and relatively dry but tending towards a NW/SE split The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the Chatham, Cape Cod, sounding for same time just to show the measured 190kt jet over the eastern US There is currently still a fair bit of rain around over the north west as the waving cold front continues to move slowly south east, and this will persist through the morning but slowly fragment on it's travels as it reaches Wales and the Midlands by late afternoon. Another mild day but cloudy for most apart from the south where there will be sunny intervals. The front will slowly clear most areas overnight but still generally cloudy with bits and bobs of rain/drizzle around, mainly in western regions. Another frost free night except perhaps for northeast Scotland where is clearer. On Thursday we are in the pattern that has been discussed previously so will skip any repetition and suffice it to say becoming dry and warmer with perhaps some cloud and patchy drizzle in western parts early on Overnight Thursday through Friday a similar, very warm and dry, day but the complex upper trough to the west is taking slightly closer order and some rain may effect the north west from a surface cold front. Another very warm day on Saturday, these temps are not written in stone, but we now have twin cyclones to the west and the trailing cold front from the initial one, now near Iceland, may bring some rain to the far west late on. As the two cyclones adjust positions overnight Saturday through Sunday the weakening cold front will finally traverse the country so cloudy with sunny intervals and maybe just a tad cooler
  12. 16 points
  13. 16 points
    Well..the 18z at least shows a risk of snow in early and then again towards mid march as cold air digs in behind some beefy atlantic systems..so hopefully some interesting weather in march..for coldies..well, the few of us left!!
  14. 15 points
    Before and after shots from up here, from yesterday and today
  15. 15 points
    This was the view from my house earlier, it's now mostly melted. It reminded me of the snow in March 2006, just the way it fell and the size and type of snow. It's a shame the cards didn't fall right here, on another day we'd have had a foot of snow but sometimes you lose the snow lottery. At least March is giving us some weather. We've now had more snow, more wind and almost as much rain in 16 days in March than in the whole of winter.
  16. 15 points
    18z brings a snow risk to even SW and SE early next week, not gonna post precipitation charts beyond a week as it becomes to subject to change. So even you southerners all is not lost.... Watch this space....
  17. 15 points
    Here is the first potential trouble maker, plenty of cold air in the circulation regarding this low pressure system! Gfs starting to stand for GOOD FOR SNOW!! Edit.... Just look at some of the snow row activity!! Probably the highest its been since last year.
  18. 15 points
    One would have been hard pushed to have predicted snow at lower elevations across eastern Ireland this afternoon as happened in spades, based even on the 12z GFS dew points and T850s. T850s and DPs for 15z this afternoon. It seems that the intense nature of the precipitation on the northern flank of deepening Storm Freya caused big evaporative cooling of the air to allow the freezing level to drop enough to allow snow to lower levels. Snow reaching to lower elevations across far north of England this evening too, though would never have guessed looking at dew points, T850s and 850-1000mb thicknesses. Goes to show, that T850s aren’t the be all and end all, heavy precipitation with rapidly developing lows and colder air cutting on northern flank at the surface can catch out forecasters! Wouldn't be surprised if we see a few more snow surprises in the next week or so in the colder Pm incursions progged by models from time to time between systems moving east.
  19. 15 points
    There is good support for a potentially wintry flavour developing next week from the Gfs / Gefs/ Ecm op / mean...could be something for coldies to celebrate in the not too distant future!oh boy it's been a rotton stinking winter..time for some early spring snow??❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄
  20. 15 points
    Well..hello winter.. where have you been hiding???..sod the timeframe..it's wintry!!❄❄❄
  21. 14 points
    I was so happy to see snaw this morning I loved watching everything turning white. Hopefully others had a good snaw day too. A couple of snaps from the car...
  22. 14 points
    0.5C and fairly light snow. Steady though, with 5cm lying.
  23. 14 points
  24. 14 points
    A mini-whumphing from the snaw here this morning. Around 3 inches since half 7. Easing off now. 0.7C/-1C after an overnight low of -2.1C. Springtime! Edit: getting heavier again.
  25. 14 points
    Gfs 12z bringing some interesting snowfalls In the coming week.... That's right! It's not to far out of the reliable folks!! The north could get pasted at times! It takes a lot for me to stand up and take note... But not me cat, boy was he shocked!
  26. 14 points
    Gfs still flying the flag for snow, here is just a little taster for early next week! I tell ya what my animals are starting to act strange, trust me they know!
  27. 14 points
    This is for any coldies who are left on here..very FI but who cares!..something from the GFS 12z & GEFS 12z!!
  28. 14 points
    We've seen some hints that maybe the MJO signal briefly finds its way through with less interference, but no more than that... so here we are looking at further distorted pattern responses. The MJO always drives amplification when active, it's where that occurs that differs depending on which phase it's in and how much interference there is from other factors. This week and next, the amplification is being distorted such that the height rises focus a fair way further south and east of the usual response. This being via stronger westerly flow persisting on the N flanks of the subtropical highs, essentially 'rooting' the major height rises to the subtropics as very resilient mid-latitude blocking features. There's no dive south and undercut of the polar jet to enable some HLB to take shape. Generally, that jet behaviour is the critical prerequisite for some at least transient HLB to occur, while a negative AO is the one for sustained HLB to take place. So even without the AO co-operating i.e. the SSW downwelling as hoped, were it not for the Nina-like interference, we'd likely have seen variable HLB during the second half of this month, which is good for battleground scenarios. One of the darkest sides to being aware of long-range weather prospects, is knowing what you could have had, when it's all gone awry. For me, the most frustrating thing about the past few months from a professional perspective has been that due to unusually poor modelling of the MJO, we've had no reliable indicators for whether the interference would continue or come to an end; all we could do is watch the observation data come in and then adjust expectations accordingly, by which time the period of interest has been within about a week's range instead of two or three. From this comes an important point - it's not usually this bad! So that's something to look forward to I guess .
  29. 14 points
    Not a bad set I must say, generally trending colder with a fair few straddlers approaching the - 10 mark.
  30. 13 points
    The thaw's on......but the early bird gets the worm
  31. 13 points
    A new version of the v8 radar is going to be available soon (initially as a beta product) to Extra subscribers. We've been hard at work with a variety of additions and improvements, including: Fullscreen radar option Improved controls Upgraded precipitation type display with improved detection and additional precipitation types Virtual weather stations Upgraded weather station overlays Rain and snow notifications (optional) Upgraded future-radar Upgraded lightning display Multiple postcode markers and zooms Some screenshots of a few of the features - they are from earlier versions so will have changes/updates in the beta. New weather station overlays: Virtual weather stations, on radar display of a station (you can setup multiple locations) Your stations will also store historic data which you can view: We hope to have the beta version available shortly
  32. 13 points
    Wow..just wow..and wow again from the Gfs 12z operational ..and this increasing risk of wintry ppn has backing from exeter with temps set to dip below average and snow should therefore be expected to feature more and more..these ain't just pure fantasy charts!!!
  33. 13 points
    True but I haven't given up on some snow this month and the Gfs / Gefs keep hopes alive..even the Ecm 12z days 9 and 10 look cold enough for something wintry..good to see at least a few of us will keep the coldie flag flying until it's time to lower it until Nov / Dec!
  34. 13 points
    I really like the Gfs 12z operational because it gives all of us a chance of snow at times, not just confined to the north and higher ground..hoping we will see some wintry weather this month to put the last 3 months to shame..plus, as a coldie I want to experience the joys of going weak at the knees and hyperventilating at the thought of seeing a snow flake at my nearest lamp post!❄
  35. 13 points
    Outlook - Unsettled and very windy at times The North Atlantic 500mb hPa and vorticity analysis and surface for midnight and the 0300 WV image The rain and weakening cold front will clear into the North Sea this morning leaving the country dry but fairly cloudy but where the sun does take a peek through another quite warm day with temps above average. But by midday fronts associated with the deep low north west of Ireland have will have brought rain into N. Ireland and western Scotland and this will track east through the afternoon, clearing N. Ireland by 1800 accompanied by a strengthening wind. The cold front just about clears the south coast during this evening so mild and dry in many areas but the low has edged a tad east so some very heavy squally showers in the north west with strong winds and severe gales in exposed areas The squally showers continue in the north on Sunday but by now complications have arisen as storm Freya has formed on the trailing cold front and deepened quickly as it tracks north east to be 981mb south of Ireland by midday. This pushes the front and rain back north again through Sunday morning before the next batch of heavier rain arrives in the south west by 1300. This then tracks north east through the rest of the day and evening as Freya does likewise with some very strong winds along it's southern quadrant with severe gusts in the areas along the track. Over the high ground in the north the precipitation could well be of snow with some quite significant accumulations. Obviously the precise track is important here The gales and rain will clear overnight Sunday leaving Monday to be a blustery day with squally showers, mainly in western regions with temps now back to around average Tuesday, with the original low still filling quietly to the north west of Ireland, looks likely to be another showery day in the north with the occlusion wrapped around there but meanwhile things are afoot in the mid Atlantic where another trough has arrived. This is being pushed south by the Bermuda high amplifying as it engages with the trough in situ over the UK And by Wednesday the troughs have merged over the UK and the process has brought more rain and squally showers which may well be wintry in the north as there is quite a marked N/S temp contrast
  36. 13 points
    Just spent a glorious few days in Aviemore - warm and sunny was the order of the day! We really are lucky to have a place as beautiful as the Highlands in our country/right on our doorstep. My parents used to take me up every year when I was a kid so I thought let’s keep the traditional going with my son. (Just turned 1 year old) Here he is looking delighted to be there! We spent lots of time at Lochan Mor below. Rothiemurchus really is an incredible place - fantastic for a long walk and we had the perfect weather for it. Loch an Eilein was spectacular as always. Loch Morlich has always been my favourite. Reindeers visit is always a must! There was no snowsports to be had up on the Cairngorms unfortunately but I did enjoy the odd snow patch or two! And as I leave...they are in for plenty of snow in the coming days/weeks. (Just my luck) Another memorable Winter visit done and dusted - back again next year to do it all again. Hopefully more of a Winter wonderland next time but I will take the weather we had as a runner up prize anytime.
  37. 13 points
    We had an epic day trip from the Borders to Crieff via Stirling, then on to Loch Earn and a walk up the old railway line up Glen Ogle. Borders sunrise: Loch Earn: Views from the old railway line: Sunset from Lochearnhead: Proper sunset at Callander: The old railway line up the side of Glen Ogle is a good, easy walk. We're not really proper hillwalkers especially since MrsC has a knackered ankle so it was suitably outdoors without being too much of a challenge. We had a walk round the Knock at Crieff but I never got any pics. The weather was very kind to us. Warm at Crieff but a little chilly up Glen Ogle. Hardly any insects or bugs and some hazy sunshine and not a drop of rain. What more can you ask for in Scotland in February except perhaps some of that mythical snow nonsense?
  38. 13 points
    Just for once this winter..or is it summer?..really confusing!..can an Ecm run showing cold and in places snow..please verify!!!!
  39. 13 points
    A serious lack of sunspot activity - like about 600 days on the bounce without a single sunspot, an E-qbo, a medoki El-nino, a -PDO, a conistantly favourable MJO throughout the whole season, the aforenmentioned Nino coupling up with the atmosphere, ie - a big - SOI resulting in huge +AAM throughout the season, off the scale +MT event resulting in a massive SSW which splits and propagates, the strat then staying favourable throughout, and even then a lot of luck on top of that.
  40. 13 points
    7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way! Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET. 13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder! Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect! This is February!!!
  41. 13 points
    Astonishing comment! Just because your location is not well above average it means that this mild spell is nothing noteworthy??
  42. 12 points
    Really liking the 6z trend for next week onwards, even more bullish than the 00z in terms of high pressure and warmer temperatures!
  43. 12 points
    Some snaps from Glenshee just now
  44. 12 points
    Strong & damaging wind gusts this morning across southern England, 70mph gust Isle of Portland, Dorset; 67mph at Manston & 65mph at Lydd in Kent. Gusts on south side of not a particularly deep low tracking east, descending dry air intrusion likely bringing strong jet winds aloft downwards to surface. WV imagery shows up the dry air intrusion running across southern counties, some strong winds / low-level westerly jet at 925 hPa this morning not far aloft likely brought down to the surface in gusts by the dry air intrusion. Were stronger gusts over 70mph over northern Belgium and southern Holland. Windy again later on Tuesday / Tuesday night in the north, but looks like strongest winds peaking to the NW before landfall, with the low filling as it crosses SE across Scotland. Still a deep low though, could be 50-60mph gusts across the north, 60-70mph gusts with exposure, low could deepen more and gusts be stronger. Doesn't look like much in the way of wintriness on the way for next week away from high ground, certainly not on par as today for the north, any snow looks confined to hills for N England, though could fall to lower levels at times across Scotland. Milder gets wrapped up easily into the deep system heading for Scotland mid-week, then subsequent lows moving in from the west bring milder westerlies until later on Friday, when we see a return of deeper cold Pm flow from the NW perhaps by the weekend.
  45. 12 points
  46. 12 points
    Wow wow and a big bloody wow!! Some of these ensembles look like an incoming earthquake graph! Snow row galore, and some unreal dips to the - 10c mark!
  47. 12 points
    Just popping in from the London and S.E. thread. Just have to say what a credit, Callum (Kirkcaldy Weather) is to your thread and the Forum, in general. I'm 63 now and Meteorology has been my hobby, since I was 10 years of age. I wished I'd had that amount of knowledge, at his tender age. K/W, is also a very valued patron of my "Fantasy" Competitions, on the Sports Zone. His entries are always clear, concise and on time. I wish I could say the same, about all the entrants!! I hope, all the snow lovers amongst you get a last "hurrah" from the white stuff, as we go through the next few weeks and a decent end to the Scottish Ski season. Spent a fantastic two weeks in the Inverness area back in the late 1980's. My wife at the time, was suffering from the early stages Huntington's Disease, which she sadly died from in Dec.2008. but along with myself and our two children, still managed to walk to the top of Cairn Gorm. We also took the train from Inverness to Lochalsh, then the ferry on to Skye. We also had a lovely day in, Fort William. Thanks for the memories, Scotland!! Kind Regards, from south of the border, Tom (SE12).
  48. 12 points
  49. 12 points
    It will be (today) and has already been 7 or 8c+ warmer than usual for the time of year. What terminology would you use to describe the weather becoming cooler?
  50. 12 points
    i see Mr.P has far less likes and very few followers compared to the buffoons who sit on their throne ..courting the masses in the hunt for cold thread..where people wait with bated breath on their every post..telling them to ignore the models as cold is just around the corner and watch the models backtrack..because the NH set up is different this year..but the models are proved right 90% of the time..whilst they spout the same old BS day after day..then disappear when spring arrives only to return in October to start the same circus all over again.
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