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Showing content with the highest reputation since 19/09/18 in all areas

  1. 32 points
    Just for fun at this stage but the CFS looks interesting for Boxing day Even -16c uppers a few days later! 1962 anyone?
  2. 26 points
    The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing parts that are starting to be found. And solar activity 'im sure will have a climatalogical impact....this quickly coming winter. And the dice ....i hope will roll a 6...for our shores. An iberian/baltic sea heat spike...and a cooling and a rapid cooling around the arm of northern most scandinavia...is a characteristic fond to the eye...at this stage and for priming the desired blocking formats.....its good 2 b bk!!!. #winter 2018/19......
  3. 21 points
    Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be. Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds. Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone. Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay). But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions. Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models: ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere: If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread. (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. ————————— Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere (Link to previous thread): —————————— Thanks all!
  4. 21 points
    Certainly no October Bore fest over in Calgary last night. 20 -30cm fresh snowfall. A different climate in the Prairies !
  5. 21 points
    Nov - March - Blocking, cold to very cold and snow. I'll take that
  6. 20 points
    That would be a shock to the system. This year seems to have been one of extremes, instead of the usual gradual switch of seasons, we've jumped from one straight into the other. Just imagine if the summer on steroids we've had is matched equally by winter.
  7. 19 points
    This is the sort of pattern I envisage setting up and repeating all winter.
  8. 17 points
    Indeed Frosty whilst I understand some enthusiasm from those looking at blocked Winter CFS charts that is a nice October set up for an Indian Summer. The real indication for vortex development will come towards December when zonal winds tend to really increase. I am quite happy to see that continental high wafting warm southerlies over us for another month until we have a better chance of Winter weather.
  9. 16 points
    The OPI had a lot of attention but didn’t amount to much . And crashed and burned when it promised a colder winter which never materialized . As everyone knows who follows these forums in winter anything that suggests a colder winter and doesn’t deliver is dispatched to the outer corners of the universe!
  10. 16 points
    Looking at the Ecm 12z, high pressure gets pushed and pulled this way and that and we get a cold crisp start to October which would feel quite wintry, especially further n / e...winter is coming!
  11. 16 points
    Slight differences with the ECM tonight the high pulling out further west allowing colder 850s in from the north . Surely I'm not gonna get accused of spamming this thread up with this post am I ?
  12. 14 points
    Came on here just to say, it really is a beautiful day I know there's clouds, it's cool, it's grey But for me, it is a beautiful day You're strangers all, but kind of not So I've got to share the news I've got Right now in my baby's arms does lay A bouncing boy, born this day A brand new grandson, oh lucky me Forgive me all for sharing my glee!
  13. 14 points
    Morning all, had an interest chat this morning with our portal forecaster about the possible deep cyclone that could develop next weekend in the vicinity of Southern Britain. Feeling are that the situation becomes quite fluid in 5 days time as the Eastern Atlantic trough moves into NW Europe. A baroclinic zone becomes established towards the North Sea, not surprising really when you see the 144t 850mb forecast temperature chart below. Very cold air getting established to the North and meeting pulses of warm air moving poleward through Eastern Europe, hence the North Sea could see fairly rapid cyclonic development. However, at this stage the positioning , deepening and potential cut off low formation is still showing a degree of uncertainty but defo one to watch. Their own model tends to show a bit more of a southward positioning and could change very quickly over the coming days. We have a snow alert for tonight, not a lot but fine mesh model predicting 5 cm in the village as the freezing level gets down to 1750m tomorrow morning.
  14. 13 points
    Well if people want a cold start to winter, the charts showing today (i'm looking specifically at the 12z and 18z GFS) are pretty on point. Huge blocking to the E and NE which is enabling the trop vortex to remain perturbed. The next thing we'd want to see after this is some pressure from the Canadian vortex pushing a trough ESE across the Atlantic, this troughing not making it much further E than the meridian (with HP remaining to the ENE). Once we get to this point, we're in November 2009 territory... Can we get there, that's the question? However, the modelling is looking very closely aligned to EC seasonal thus far...
  15. 13 points
    Looking at the Gfs 12z operational, the generally uk based anticyclone is under sustained attack and gets pushed and pulled around a lot more than the 6z..and then it turns colder and very unsettled with a Northerly blast which is set up for further reloads beyond the end of the run..even some snow for the hills / mountains of scotland and quite a wintry feel to early october on this run! ❄
  16. 13 points
    Using the anomaly charts this is what I wrote in my daily summation this morning. Only ec shows any signal for troughing into Europe; all 3 show the main trough is way back, the Canadian main trough in fact. More settled more often for areas well south, less so the further nw one lives and probably mostly changeable covers it for the nw’ern areas of the uk. Ec-gfs and ec not that different to the one above, less pronounced ridging though, gfs about the same perhaps? Noaa and its ridge is less pronounced although the +ve signal looks very similar if slightly further w than that above. links http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Just one line of psters showing probably sums up how quickly any changes are likely. No sign of an Indian Summer yet and no real signal for anything other than slight frosts under clear skies for the cold watchers.
  17. 13 points
    Mmm not sure where your summer returns stems from, the high pressure will be ridging through under chilly uppers, frost likely and suppressed temps, and none of the models showing a significant warm up next week.
  18. 12 points
    Looks like extra runs from ECM are coming our way "Just heard word that ECMWF will soon be providing 6Z and 18Z cycles (in addition to the 0/12Z runs). This will be hourly data from 0 to 90 hours and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144 hours for 00/06/12/18Z runs. Good news to start the day!"
  19. 12 points
    glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..
  20. 12 points
    So Summer came, we had a blast Hot day after day, but it's fading fast Not sure I'm ready to say 'Goodbye' To summer warmth, sun high in the sky There's a bit of a nip in the air just now Summer has gone, it's taken a bow Autumn's come, not slowly drifted in Pushed summer aside, come making a din The wind and the rain, rattling through Reminding us all, trees and fences he'll slew Oh please be gentle, be kind, be mellow Leaves of gold and conkers, you can be a fabulous fellow I want time to savour the slow fading Of roses and trees, remember their shading When I hid from the heat of the summer just past What a wonder it was, we had a blast There's a time and a place for all in life Weather's no different, but I expect strife When I make a plea, don't pray for snow Let autumn play, don't skip it or let it go There's beauty a plenty and joy to be had Don't wish it away, winter can wait a tad You regulars sigh, must fill you with dread When we migrants descend, invade this thread But remember the joy of the first summer swallow We're the opposite end as we drift in to follow Every model and forecast, hoping for snow But for me, for now, I don't want summer to go
  21. 12 points
    This is what I have been waiting for: cross model agreement on a six-day (minimum) settled, dry and quite sunny spell of lovely early autumn weather. Out to +144 the prediction is unanimous: UKMO: ECM: GFS: GEM: ECM and UKMO probably showing the best outcome for the whole country but GFS and GEM both promise settled conditions for most. Even out at +192 the longer term outlook seems similar: ECM: GFS: GEM: If the ridge is allowed to drift eastwards a little we could see some quite warm temperatures as well but as things stand it's a cool but fairly quiet picture. Excellent outlook for early October, in my opinion - it will allow the trees to colour up and lose their leaves naturally before the more active late autumn weather arrives. There's plenty of work to do outside yet which requires dry weather. And there's plenty of time yet for rain, cold and, dare I say it, extreme weather to show its hand - Christmas is still three months away yet!
  22. 12 points
    After that im talking about, looks primed for a N'ly, im still waiting for that much vaunted continuation of the early summer that's been talked about on here since early August, its been about 12c here recently and Essex is progged to have an airfrost early next week.
  23. 12 points
    Can I just post to say thanks in advance to all the people who explain the charts to the rest of us so well! I'm not in here year-round, and normally wouldn't be in til the snows are due, but given the current weather I had to come in to see if I can learn something about these complex systems. You lot and your 'translations' are a godsend!
  24. 12 points
    Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy
  25. 11 points
    The CFS on almost every run for the last 20 or 30 has shown a below average 850hpa mean profile for October, and most have shown between -2c and -4c anomaly.
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