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  1. 12z GFS op is a good workout. Day 1-3 : Lateral lunge Day 3-7 : Dumbbell curtsey Then rest. Then repeat. Day 9-10 Day 10-12 Then lie down flat and think of spring. *No gym enthusiasts were harmed in the writing of this post.
    40 points
  2. Some indications emerging now of how the aftermath of the SSW might play out in terms of the Northern Hemisphere profile over the next couple of weeks. The 0z ECM ensemble mean / EPS charts show low pressure centred near the Low Countries at day 4. The Scandinavian heights are being squeezed northwest towards Greenland. Strong heights in this region appear to be a feature of the next couple of weeks. They are being held there at day 7 by a westward extension of the Siberian core of the PV to the north of Greenland, which reinvigorates the Greenland trough, bringing the western fringe of Europe to the eastern periphery of an Atlantic cyclonic influence. By day 10, this westward extension of the PV has developed further, forming a major trough down through eastern North America, a very cold spell looking to develop there, peaking at around day 12, while Europe remains quiet with temperatures near average. Indications of a change for Europe by day 15 though, as heights rise through the Atlantic and a Scandinavian trough becomes established, along with a surface low over the northern Mediterranean… …bringing signs, albeit at that distant range, of scope for a northerly surface flow, picked up on the EPS MSLP charts too, flowing from the Siberian Arctic, through the Norwegian Sea, to Western Europe. From what has proved at times to be a quite exasperating winter, though the Atlantic might at times dabble with us, it looks like we’ll move towards and pass the spring equinox with a largely blocked setup and one more tease for prospects of cold weather, this one perhaps being directed rather than being diverted by events in the stratosphere. Relatively quiet it almost certainly will be. As for something notably cold later in the month, well maybe, but let’s not hold our breath!
    30 points
  3. TillyS This post in itself is misdirection... One failed evolution linked to previous discussions regarding the teleconnections and the likes of the GSDM and people then suggest they are not reliable, rubbish. There have been a handful of cases throughout the winter when the connections between these and the sensible weather on the surface have played out well. There's a saved post of mine from weeks back, highlighting the connections between the evolution of the GSDM and the waxing and waning of the AO through Dec and Jan, when we experienced both very good examples of +ve AO and -ve AO events. This last 'failure' is seemingly linked to a highly complex setup due to stratospheric interference and reflections - https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-introducing-a-new-index-to-help-forecast-polar-vortex-arctic-air-episodesstratospheric-downward-wave-reflection-events-2-2/ possibly, amongst other things too, but aren't worth bothering discussing. You can't win them all... You're right about the models mind and that includes the full suite of NWP, not just those three models, if you're looking at the short-term, then everyone should be looking at the ECM, UKMO et al. Regards, Matt.
    26 points
  4. The Iberian heights taking a bit of a late season pasting at the hands of the polar trough during the next few days (these are all for 0-84h) on 0z GFS op… …in more ways than one. With the 528 thickness line briefly grazing the north of Spain and the freezing level at 800 - 1200 metres, heavy falls of snow for the Cantabrian Mountains, which reach up to over 2000 metres. Closer to home, with those kinds of thicknesses that far south, falling snow is a very reasonable possibility anywhere in the UK and Ireland. Freezing levels often near 400 metres, sometimes a tad lower in the colder pockets of polar maritime air bustling through, so upland Scotland doing very well for settling snow, and scope there for slight accumulations at times for parts of Central Wales and Central England too, as well as local accumulations more widely no doubt. The GFS has been consistent with the modelling of these thicknesses, freezing levels and precipitation for several days now, as it has been with this morning’s deluge! Whatever falls out of the sky and whether it sticks, for everywhere in Western Europe a very different feel to the end of the week. Have a great day.
    26 points
  5. Gfs 00z showing some warmth wafting up from Spain for the end of March, this would be more than welcome couldn’t see anything too cold either, it seems to be shifting to Eastern Europe so hopefully a good sign of the ssw not negatively impacting us by delaying spring
    23 points
  6. Evening all , just looking at that latest chart for months end. Another pulse of warm air heading into The Eastern Alps. So far up to 25 th Feb , it is the warmest February ever in 257 years of records kept in Austria. Nearly a massive +6c above the 1991-20 average ( that is also a period of warm decades ) Some parts of Austria not seeing any snowfall at all this winter. Quite astonishing. C
    23 points
  7. For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 none of these were cold, often very mild. In midst of already higher global temperatures, it cannot be startling to see why we have struggled and southern air streams have been powerful with record warm SSTs. Next winter it’s very likely we will see La Niña conditions so hopefully a fresh slate…
    22 points
  8. Creating this thread as a last ditch attempt at some voodoo/fate tempting to see if there will be an increased chance of a pattern change! If you guys all remember, last year a thread was started in June I think, titled "Worryingly dry" & pretty much the moment that thread went up, our weather turned from nice, sunny & dry to endless rain almost non stop for now getting on 10 months in a row! I hope that after putting this thread up, we will get months of endless sunshine & mostly dry conditions for the foreseeable....until someone creates a new "Worryingly dry" thread of course.... Anyway, who here is fed up with the constant unrelenting rain & gloom??
    20 points
  9. Tbh I'm ready for warm and sunny weather now. Winter can wait until November
    20 points
  10. OMG I finally saw them! Right out the back of the house
    20 points
  11. To all the people saying no chance of southern uk snow now and upper air temperatures etc well here’s 2” of something this morning and still coming down (I’m at 150’ asl)
    20 points
  12. blizzard81 It has been a very bizarre winter . The strat forecasts which have in the past been reliable have bitten the dust . We’ve had some decent ingredients but have ended up with the food equivalent of Spam ! It will probably go down as the biggest recent failure in longer range modeling.
    20 points
  13. Anyone fancy an early season plume? Has been gaining interest in recent model runs. The GEM tries something at day 10.
    19 points
  14. Never mind the snow, I'm just looking for some hint of dry, or even average in the models. Something like the GFS 00z will have devastating effects for much of the country in terms of excessive rainfall I suspect. It looks like March 2023 all over again. It needs to stop raining now; this is becoming a really serious situation. Cold dry or mild dry, I don't care anymore... This is turning into a historically unprecedented spell of prolonged wet weather, more than 8 months already and counting. We desperately need a dry late spring and summer.
    19 points
  15. TillyS The only real "teleconnection" fail this winter was in January when we saw a reflective SSW event, something that's rather rare and cannot be forecasted beyond the short term, the stratosphere is a very important factor & can overrule tropospheric forcing, which is what happened (See my post in the Winter post mortem thread where I explained all of this) Otherwise, they've been a good indicator throughout this winter in terms of broadscale patterns. What you can't do though is take the MJO in isolation like many in this thread do. Many see the MJO phase, look at the composite and expect that to be the pattern that verifies but unfortunately it's not that simple. The MJO is just one variable in the broader windflow budget and you need to look at both tropical & subtropical forcing, looking at just 1 variable will not give accurate results. I hope the thread becomes more filled with teleconnection talk rather than less, these teleconnections drive the models, not the other way around and the more we understand them, the more accurate future forecasts will become. In terms of the shorter term though, yes NWP rules the roost. Teleconnections can only give broadscale indications of potential pattern changes, they cannot tell you it will snow in X location on X day.
    19 points
  16. I just wondered if anyone else has encountered the same problem that I’m having. As some of you may know, I returned from Norway on Tuesday after an incredible fortnight. Everything there was so real: 2 metre lying snow, blizzards, crystal clear skies, northern lights, low temps etc. Now I find that every day I’m staring at the UK model outputs run after run and I just can’t get excited by it any more. I mean, it’s all so inconsequential. So ‘meh.’ There’s just nothing really about UK weather that’s interesting bar the very occasional moment like a deep storm or a heatwave. Winters are as bland as blaaaah-bland can be. I’m not knocking this country, at least I don’t think I am, but when you come back from somewhere where the weather is so real it just makes all this seem like nonsense. I really really hope this won’t get deleted because it is about the model outputs. Maybe it might help us all to stop having squabbles about this or that model run when, really, nothing happens here of any great consequence (any more). xx
    18 points
  17. Not seeing this phantom U.K. high coming to anything. The last 9 months have seen the U.K. become a beacon of low pressure, rain and gloom. The eps and geps have sacked off any hopes of a meaningful pressure rise. Even a split ssw and high amp mjo into the pacific doesn’t matter anymore. Im sure it’ll flip eventually, but this is one of my least favourite periods of weather. Always the promise of interesting, settled or cold weather but the reality has been utterly grim.
    18 points
  18. Things shaping up a little bit better now. Successive waves of building heights around the Azores are gaining a modicum of momentum in the models. As I alluded to a few days ago, there’s a practice run this coming weekend, here on the 0z EPS at day 4. It’s a shallow ridge, giving just a bit of a break before the flow from the southwest resumes, but a pleasant Sunday afternoon over England in particular with temperatures up to 15 degrees on the op. What is interesting from there is that though the Atlantic trough does make very slow eastward headway to be hanging down through the UK and Ireland by day 8, it weakens considerably against the European heights. This weakening of the trough means that the next wave of Azores heights is able to line up a better effort towards the weekend after next as the trough gets shunted east and squeezed out. This build looks to be getting its act together by around day 10. The 0z EPS / ECM mean shows a solid build in heights nicely oriented northeastwards in the direction of the UK and Ireland. So slowly gaining Azores momentum. What we’d perhaps expect this time of year. It’s not looking like sustained dry spells by any means, more like 2-3 day spells of drier, more settled weather between slow moving troughs, but I’m alright with it, as long as we get the breaks. When it rains, I can wear a coat. There’s always a lot of interest in the potential for wintry weather and at the other extreme, summer heatwaves. But spring, with its better light and resurgence of nature, though often under-rated, can be a lovely time of the year. To make the most of it, I’ll probably be posting a good deal less, so have a good few weeks.
    18 points
  19. Looking at the cfs, further into March looks rather blocked with high pressure in the ascendancy meaning benign conditions for the majority…then I’ll skip April and look forward to early May! …call me a traitor coldies… I’ve had enough of this abysmal / pathetic / rotten excuse for a so called winter season already!…bring on the sun! ️
    18 points
  20. The afternoons and early evenings are giving better and better value as spring gets underway. Temperatures very reasonable for central and southern England this afternoon in the southeasterly draw off the near continent, ahead of the approaching low, here on the 0z ECM op, better indeed than for most of France and Iberia, where temperatures are subdued to say the least… …and getting pegged back generally for the UK and Ireland by tomorrow as the low pressure passing through to the south slowly fills over southern UK and Ireland but pulls us around into an easterly flow. A slow but steady improvement during the week, as wafts of heights from the south, combine with the longer days and a southerly flow to deliver the vast majority double figure afternoon temperatures by Thursday, as a more organised belt of showery rain approaches from the west. Southeast Spain up into the twenties. In keeping with what we often see early on in the season, the gradual upward trend in afternoon temperatures is not emulated by the early morning temperatures, with frosts likely for many midweek. The Friday feature looks potentially interesting. Good levels of precipitable water down the spine so with this marked diurnal heating, scope for some early spring convection to enhance the belt of showers as it passes through. All very fitting for the second week of March, which will do nicely. Have a good one.
    18 points
  21. Don Shifting seasons? Not really it's more common than people think March 1970 Very Cold April 1971 Heavy Snow late on April 1973 NE snow at times March 1974 Snow first few days March 1975 Snowy Easter April 1978 Snow in places around 10th April 1979 Snow in the first week March 1980 some snow mid month April 1981 second half snowy and cold April 1983 snowy Easter March 1984 Cold and cloudy occasional wintry spells March & April 1986 Cold and Snowy at times March 1987 Cold heavy snow in places April 1989 Heavy snow in the South March 1995 Heavy snow in the Midlands March 1996 Easterly month snow in places April 2000 Snow in places Luton airport closed due to snow March 2001 Cold Easterly Month , snow in places March 2006 prolonged Easterlies mid month cold, snow around April 2008 Snow in the SE first week March 2013 Very Cold snow around April 2016 Heavy snowfall in the North late month March 2018 Cold with snow April 2021 Cold and dry
    18 points
  22. First day of spring in Ireland you couldn’t make it up!
    18 points
  23. Gfs is like don't bother let's get spring in. But look ECM and it's a different story. Cyclonic episodes wrapped in cold air at times and if you fast forward to day 10,we have some serious cold over Greenland..follow the isobars and we are dragging that down..yes there will be moderation of the flow,but I tell you what I wouldn't be suprised to see the met being busy in the next week or so with snow cropping up for those who didn't expect it,and a fair bit of snow for areas further NW and with elevation. So perhaps we still have a few more dramas to play out before all is said and done..Will be keen to see if tonight's zonal winds keep with the trend for the strat to be hit again come early March.
    18 points
  24. Hi everyone, this is my first ever post on netweather. I love reading your posts by the. Way. Loving the GFS 0Z Op showing first signs of the SSW effect - actually having one in FI :
    17 points
  25. Last night's Aurora (for those who missed it) as seen from the upper Goyt Valley at around 8.30pm, I thought it was going to be a bust given there was a pesky patch of cloud that seemed to linger off to the north for quite a while, but thankfully it shifted to the NorthEast and allowed clear-skies just as the Aurora began to kick-off.
    17 points
  26. Jordan S hope you get some snow. Nice fall today across a fair bit of Ireland. Here in Dublin quite a bit !!
    17 points
  27. Extremely pleased how the patterns have & are developing there's a few timeframes I'm focusing on ATM. As this next low becomes a cut off low first across the UK and Ireland with below average temperatures at 850hpa and surface levels with fronts wrapping around the low this brings potential for snow event(s) for the UK and Ireland. I had mentioned in a number of my posts that week 4 of February was the next significant opportunity for patterns which could favour wintry conditions and I'm extremely happy seeing such evolutions. As the thickness levels begin to lower once more this sees the showers from the Atlantic becoming steadily more wintry and once the low begins to develop into that of a cut off and the cold air continues to intensify as it undercuts frontal precip current trends show potential for snow event(s) in particular for Wales, Northwest and Northern England [Pennines] and pushing into Scotland. In these areas seeing snow / wintry precip there will also be frosts and an ice risk maybe even an ice day with snow cover. As the pattern across our side of the Northern Hemisphere begins to develop retrograding tendencies we'll see a few big and interesting developments. As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility. Into week 2 of March with further retrograding the connection of blocking to our East Northeast and the -PNA high across East Northeast America and Canadian Maritimes begins to centre in across Greenland. With the MJO having progressed across the Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa and currently residing within the Indian Ocean this gives feedback in line with the above patterns and suggests there is a possibility for a colder flow from the Northeast > East though how much influence this has in the UK TBD. Plenty of interest as we head closer to Mid March I suspect. This ongoing cycle of the MJO carries importance with regard to El Ninò though there are still a bit of discrepancies with how amplified the MJO becomes within the Indian Ocean with the GEFS seeing a strong event whereas the CFS is much less amplified. The GEM & JMA are more akin with the GEFS I'm more familiar with Westerly Wind Bursts which are the warmer ones however we're looking at Easterly Wind Burst event here which could further speed up the ongoing decline in the El Ninò temperatures. Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024. Thanks for reading. KW
    17 points
  28. Lots going on. As the initial deep cyclone moves in through tomorrow there will be a few developments, along the southern flank there will be spawning of additional cyclonic centres thanks to a strong Jet Stream which already broke records when it was situated over Northeastern America During the initial phase of cyclogenisis the newly developing cyclonic Centre running through central and South Southeast England will have 2 zones of convection with one being particularly prominent and linear in form... possible Line Echo Wave Pattern / Squall and additional thundery cells could develop ahead of this line. There might be some flash flooding within this. During tomorrow I also wouldn't be shocked seeing flash flood reports across France. Into Friday this develops into 3 cyclonic centres with the one from the UK undergoing rapid cyclogenisis as it moves over the North Sea and swings into Scandinavia as a deep snowstorm which links to the original main cyclonic Centre which is part of the Tropospheric Vortex. We also see another cyclonic centre developing into the Alps as a snowstorm too. As the linear convective activities clear into the North Sea the thickness level across Ireland and UK lowers with a plethora of wintry precipitation and snow even at low levels with laying snow a distinct liklihood particularly across Scotland Thundersnow opportunities likely too. For the next developments we need to go back to the low which brought flooding rains across Florida. This same cyclone will deliver further snow in Newfoundland This same cyclone will move over the Atlantic high and become joined with the original cyclone / section of the Tropospheric Vortex North northwest of the UK this will move toward Ireland the UK and Europe by Feb 25th / 26th. During this timeframe the Alps snowstorm will be directed Northeastwards with current guidance of a snowstorm(s) ranging from Denmark and especially Sweden to other Baltic countries such as Latvia and Finland. The new system moving into Ireland UK and Europe could bring new flash flood risks from Southern England, Portugal, Northwest and North Spain into France once more... track and hpa dependant possible gales too. As the high to the east builds into a high in Scandinavia this will connect to the Atlantic High giving the cut off low by February 26th - 27th. This connection will be brief at this stage with new trough developments close to the UK & Ireland During the last days of February into the beginning of March During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High a la
    17 points
  29. Another good day including some cool mammatus..
    16 points
  30. The end to another week marked by another cold trough dropping down from the north over the UK and Ireland, 12z GFS op, 0-78h. These are the 500mb temperature and heights charts. Nice to look at. Last week’s colder snap flattered to deceive in many ways. The impressive looking 528 dam thicknesses only delivered for the tops. I must admit that I saw more scope in it for snow than transpired. This one will perhaps prove more interesting in the event as there is a low pressure system with its own circulation that forms at the base of the trough. The trajectory of arrival is more sharply NW-SE so there is slightly colder air wrapped up in it, with heights as low as 512-520 gpm, and there is also more organised precipitation. This time there is a keen ridge building behind the low, which serves to cut it off from the trough at least for a while, until it merges west with the base of the next incarnation of the Greenland longwave. The models have struggled all week with the rate at which the low gets warmed out, with a trend over the last few days toward keeping it that bit colder for longer. @Ali1977 has been picking up on this firming up over the last few days. In any case, there’s certainly plenty of weather around on Friday into Saturday in particular, at 36-78h, as the low pivots its way through Ireland and the UK and spins out a secondary system to France. It’s made more interesting by the system arriving during nighttime hours and the relatively slack circulation as it grinds to a halt possibly aiding some evaporative cooling at times with the heavy and sustained precipitation, so maybe the first couple of days of spring this year might well have a decidedly wintry feel. Very likely my last post of the winter! I have greatly enjoyed it, though it seems that the models we study are possibly on as steep a learning curve as we are.
    16 points
  31. None of these teleconnections markers have proved reliable all winter. It begs the question for how much longer this model output discussion thread will be dominated by discussions of these teleconnections when we already have three excellent main model outputs: the GFS, the ECM, and the UKMO. Greater focus on those three models, especially inside T168, would save a lot of misdirection.
    16 points
  32. Still looks like knife edge stuff as to whether the February CET record will go. A milder incursion around the last couple of days of the month could prove decisive, but equally some cold nights possible before that. Beyond that, into early March, there's still far too much scatter to say anything with any certainty in my view. Possibly the only clear good news is that we look to get a solid rise in pressure into March. Mean now gets us to 1020mb. Looking at March more generally - in winter we often tend to focus on the cold pool, but I also think it's interesting to look at the available warm pool. It's an incredible pattern for the time of year. The first chart is tonight's GFS 12z for the 10th March. The black outline in red is the +20C isotherm area. After that, we have the equivalent charts for 2023 and 2022. 2022 is perhaps closest to this year's chart, but the extent of the 20C isotherm is still far greater this year. It's really quite extraordinary to see. To make the point even more, here is the GFS for the 6th of April 2023, which is the earliest chart I could find from last year that looked similar! We're nearly a month ahead. More local to us, it's also notable how little cold there is to our east. Even if we do get an easterly, it would need to drag the cold a long way west, and perhaps more south-west. There's nothing much to work with over central Europe, we need to go all the way to Russia or north to Scandinavia to find anything of note. Interesting to watch this going forward, but it is a key factor. We need to be looking not just at the synoptic charts, but also the actual amounts of warmth or cold available. We then have the SSTs to consider. Here we are at days 0, 5, 10 and 15 from the ECM, both the absolute values and anomaly view. Absolute SSTs are now bottoming out, and the anomaly view clearly shows that the warm SSTs near the Azores are not going anywhere any time soon. Summary In short, continued cold / near average and wet for the time being. Bit of a drying trend into March, possibly an early signal for warmth, but nothing too out of the ordinary really for the time of year. Looking at a much broader scale though, the amount of warmth available this year is really quite something. If that does start to filter into parts of Europe, the risk increases that at some point we tap into it. Warmth is therefore very strongly favoured, though of course not guaranteed. I think it will be very tough to get any prolonged spells of below average temperatures for as long as the wider Northern Hemisphere temperature profile remains so warm.
    16 points
  33. One of the best endings i've seen to a GFS run in a long while in fl, this would be so welcome. Is it too much to ask for?
    16 points
  34. A sound summary and makes a lot of logical, teleconnective sense...but I'm not sure it will come to pass now and I'm ready to hang up my snow boots and depart this forum for another year. The vortex has refused to crack all season whatever the record books will say about a double SSW season, and predictions of a blocked February drained away all too quickly. Unless the vortex splits - which it now looks like it wont - then we are left with a weak and wobbly westerly vortex, not much of a downwell of any supportive reverse flow, and pacific forcings that will need to produce output that has not come to pass through most of this season. I can see the jet whipping up, and in theory with such a strong uptick in the GWO it ought to promote cold blocking....but I have a feeling that transient cold phases and a lot more rain is where we might end up. It has been a fairly sapping experience over the last 6 weeks. I fear that the impact of CC is skewing everything in the wrong direction faster than many expected (just look at Alpine temperatures, Moroccan temperatures and the jaw dropping speed of ocean warming) and UK winter is going to get shorter and more scarce. For mid February our own temperatures have been fairly extreme. Meanwhile summer approaches and I am dreading how much heat may come with it. Perhaps something significant can shift next winter so that the patterns and the accompanying temperatures can give snowball players more of a chance.
    16 points
  35. I would not like to be on The Yorkshire coast this weekend with winds coming off The North Sea. Will feel even colder next week. There is a heck of a lot of snow to melt and transfer into the North Sea from Scandinavia over the coming weeks. Any winds originating from the East will make Eastern parts feel particularly cold. Models showing that now. Even today with coldest I have ever felt in my lifetime was playing cricket at Wetwang ( Yorkshire wolds ) in early April wearing 3 sweaters. Currently living at 1340m in the Austrian Alps and positively mild in comparison to ! Wetwang , frozen in time. Great place and happy memories. C
    15 points
  36. 12z GEFS and ECM op - models beginning to look a bit crabby as early as day 4.
    15 points
  37. A big battle ensuing on the 0z ECM op through to day 10 with possibly the best example of Atlantic trough disruption that we have seen through these colder months. The first cut-off is rescued at day 2 as it joins the Greenland trough, but the reformed trough is sent sharply into reverse, pushed west, through to day 4 or 5, as heights build through Scandinavia, on their migration west to Iceland. The second cut-off is paid in instalments between day 6 and 8, and this is firmly forced southeast around the southern flank of the heights. The steady reappearance of some very cold air over Scandinavia, extending southwestwards is intriguing to say the least. The ensemble mean shows a similar trend, ending up with positive heights extending from Scandinavia deep into Canada. The very strong heights anomalies (in black) over Scandinavia during the next few days is a particularly notable signal. It’s looking like developing into proper Northern blocking across the entire Atlantic sector. Some interesting discussions about the value of ensemble mean charts. I agree that they’re not offering a likely solution in themselves, but then neither for that matter, does the op or any of the individual ensemble members past day 6 or 7. The clusters are useful, but there we are still working with a representation of the cluster and at a relative probability in terms of the whole ensemble that can at times be quite modest. What the ensemble mean does give is an idea of the general direction of travel of the whole pack for that particular timeframe. When, like with the above, this is in broad agreement with the op, this provides support for the general evolution being modelled, in this case a quite striking trough disruption at the hands of impressive and sustained heights to the north, which is undeniably of value.
    15 points
  38. Can the MOD thread be any more unbearable I can't believe people are excited for chilly easterly winds and cold rain. Haven't we suffered enough this winter!!
    15 points
  39. I really don't care about cold weather, it's been cold enough already... Is there ANY sign in the model output of dry weather? The river burst its banks here, so
    15 points
  40. You had to be up early at the crack of dawn to have gotten the best of today's weather, I joined the crowds up at Mam Tor to see the fog inversion down the Hope Valley and wasn't disappointed given the forecast was supposed to have been completely overcast. Even the significantly large sunspot AR3590 was easy to spot (briefly) through the higher clouds just a few minutes after sunrise.
    15 points
  41. A slow pattern as we enter meteorological spring, as low heights on the western side of the Arctic vie with positive heights on the eastern side - the tropospheric PV, that never really got going this winter, withdrawn to northeast Canada, but extending a cold trough through Greenland and Iceland, down into the UK and Ireland, here at day 5 on the 0z GEFS. There is a decent Atlantic ridge, and as this topples, it links up with heights over NE Europe and western Russia at day 7, allowing for development of a cut-off low over the UK and Ireland, maintaining its own pool of cold air, in this evolution, likely this year for meteorological spring to kick off with a distinctly chilly feel, mean T850s at day 6. Thereafter, another trough drops through Greenland by day 10, this time to the west of us over the Atlantic. This looks to be followed by another bisection of the trough, forming another cut-off at the base, which again slowly migrates southeast over Western Europe by day 15. A big difference at this stage though, is that the PV has moved northeast over the pole, all the troughing is removed from Greenland, allowing heights to build through the North Atlantic to Scandinavia, the pattern by then looking to be even slower, very typical of recent springs with a slow, chilly start to the season. Have a great day.
    15 points
  42. A few more from this afternoon, lovely to be seeing more of this now!
    15 points
  43. Interesting skies as the front was clearing in the last half hour.
    15 points
  44. A little delayed but just got back from Rovaniemi, Finland. Stayed for one week in a hostel so the trip was quite affordable. Finland is such a beautiful country. I stayed about half a mile from the city centre so walking around was very easy and everthing was in walkable distance. This is my third time to Rovaniemi so i know the area very well now. Theres not much to do in the city, a small shopping centre and a few restaurants (mostly burgers and burger king!). We did a 6 mile husky ride, ice dip, sauna and outdoor jacuzzi. Onto the most important part, the Weather! Staying for a week i was hoping i had a chance to see some heavy snowfall, the whole week was very sunny and very cold. It was quite rare to see the bright sunshine and blue skies for a whole week, there was wall to wall sunshine most days (amazing sunsets), with the occasional partly cloudy day and also freezing fog which came in most nights. The northern lights struggled to come out most nights, we had 2 or 3 nights of clear skies but no northern lights. We would walk about 6 miles into the forest and to a camp fire every night, one night we got back to the hostel and the northern lights came out, we were too tired to go back outside and get all the gear back on. Thankfully i took many photos of the beautiful northern lights last year when i was staying here. Temperatures for the whole week were very cold, and at times, Bitter. The average day temperature was around -19°C and average overnight lows were around -25°C. There were two nights when the overnight temperatures plummeted to -31°C. It was interesting to note that this minimum temperature wasnt getting reached untill around 6am, slowly warming up to around -20°C by noon. On the last day the morning started sunny with temperatures around -20°C. It warmed up on the last day with increasing cloud cover to around -13°C which felt much warmer. You could walk around with nothing covered on the head or face which was a nice break from wearing everything. Light snow began to spread in from the west from noon, with a slight dusting on all surfaces so it was nice to see some falling snow at least. Snow depth was around 65cm at the Airport, while surrounding areas of the forests the snow depths were around 75cm. Back home now to rain, wind and our outstanding beaches and green countryside!
    15 points
  45. Catacol I agree….just as a seasoned skier over the last 25 years the difference in climate is extremley noticeable. Gone are the days of having to wear layers, and sure snow cover in the resort villages. Really depressing the acceleration climate change has taken on Europe it seems. Irreversible now and a worry for our future generations
    15 points
  46. Now that would be special for time of year.
    14 points
  47. Few snaps and a vid of Les Menuires this week. All in all, good conditions with wee top ups of fresh. Should be two crackin bluebird days in the bag (next is the morn). Past the half way mark time wise, and well that makes you think about heading hame to Scotland. Not sad though, as that's where the heart is... Vid is of Mont Blanc, then swinging round to Val Thorens. Taken from the top of Pointe de la Masse. Fuel stops are good (as per photo), but no mac and cheese or Scotch pie like you get at Scottish ski centres sadly! 20240304_105959.mp4
    14 points
  48. GEM 12z is up for a full on March cold spell by day 10: Incoming! I’ve been watching this possibility for a couple of days now, it’s been there on the ECM clusters, not favourite, but it is in the mix, and now on this GEM op run.
    14 points
  49. think this might be another cumulonimbus cloud but it could be nimbostratus, the clouds are still towering very tall since yesterday.
    14 points
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