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  1. 26 likes
    Evening All- 2019/ 20 Winter is over ! On the back of a record breaking persistent -NAO. So to add some commentary of where we are & indeed where we may end up I have cherry picked out some of the images floating around twitter this last week. The information > Route GLOSEA5 & GFS mid term modelling circa 50-60 days will probably run different parameters to the ECM seasonal however the images that are being used ( as I have over the last month or so ) show the atmosphere top down & how the strat may (or may not ) couple with the troposphere - Whilst these are a 2D image you looking at anomalies that depict the entire polar field where blue is negative heights & red is positive heights. As of today here is the progressive last 4 Months - & the whole year Of note here is of course no cold downwelling & residual warmth remaining in the troposphere linked in with AO - Since that 27 Sept to the updated chart of 07 Oct covering 10 days - Whilst the Stratospheric vortex has ramped up about 7 M/S its not filtering down - However the models *are* forecasting a Strat / Trop coupling in about 3-4 weeks ( This is what @CreweCold is always referring to when he says there no point in getting excited about Oct & even early Nov patterns if the blocking is going to be swpet away- Well we have that sort of transition occurring for the start of Nov- Both the GFS polar cap ( source AER ) & GLOSEA 5 ( source Met office ) show cold downwelling Longer range The Glosea model shows November polar field becoming very positive & that ongoing negative height remaining in situ > The classic positive December AO. ( Remember this models has been fed with Strat data as well NINO / QBO data etc ) So it would appear its going to go pete Tong... Or is it? Important to factor in for the next 6 weeks to observe. * The consistency & accuracy of the GLOSEA model at day 50-60 becomes very low meaning that the initial coupling prediction doesn't preclude persistent cold, indeed if we add the next days run for October 6th ( taken from the same source ) all of a sudden the persistent cold strat has been replaced by warming similar to 2009 Heres 2009 Last solar Min which produced a November warming - & we know how that winter went after that... & for reference here is the Crewe Cold worst case scenario +AO So the next 4-6 weeks will already tell us when we get to second week of Nov where the polar cap will be in terms of overall heights & the predicted modality of the AO for H1 of Winter. ( not withstanding the potential of a later SSW ) - The wild card the NAO. The NAO is usually a couplet of the AO / NAO phase where for winter one follows the other - however in isolation this summer & early autumn the NAO has often run out of sync by staying Negative even though the AO has trended neutral - Late september is a good example. we saw when there was neutral polar heights we had a peak pulse of -NAO, can we sustain this with a fairly supporting tripole all the way through coupling in November ...? Maybe ! Just a footnote new research suggests the SAI wont have the ability to drive the phase of the AO in winter ( especially early ) but rather reinforce a negative one later in winter if the base state was negative in the first place. So there you have it > No ramps & no claims this will be an amazingly cold winter - Just some markers set out ( week 2 & 3 of November ) to flag up what the prospects will be.... Best S
  2. 25 likes
    Just as a very brief addition (before properly retiring to the sidlelines until next Spring) to the previous post made about 5 weeks back which alluded to the escalation of confirmation bias wrt weather preferences which.rises to its highest levels in autumn and winter Its based on a conversation I have had with someone who is a very well respected observer elsewhere, with a level of knowledge and perception that many would aspire to and of a higher technical level for sure than my own. Most importantly they suspend their own natural preferences and make judgements neutrally and based on the merits of all variables present and not selectively. Such observers I think are the ones particularly worth listening to and trying to learn from. Anyway, relevant to the here and now situation but extrapolating that forward in terms of future possibilities - here is some of that conversation based on my own contributions. A few further additions have subsequently been made to make it most relevant to the UK and Europe Yes for my own purposes, a defacto traditional Nina regime looks increasingly likely to persist in the months ahead. The question being where any Pacific convergence may set up to interfere with the regime and create scope for less tropical and extra tropical disconnect to the base state. In that sense the much less disconnected SOI plays a bit part if any westerly wind compartment is isolated, so to speak, due to a wider overriding -ve momentum inertia High amplitude Phase 3 GWO could well be set to return to Phase 1 as trade winds increase across the IO following the recent extra tropical increase in momentum. Once the +EAMT wavelength fades over coming days, -ve FT in the tropics will lead MT momentum trending -ve once more and maintain the GWO well within the Nina attractor phases - providing the steer to persisting sub tropical ridging. This sub tropical ridging is well in evidence in present modelling and amplification of this ridging during autumn and indeed winter to provide short lived colder incursions is quite consistent with many similar years and not at all unusual, or any signal of a harsh winter, This, plus question marks wrt QBO transition needs to be balanced against any weakness within the polar field c/o arctic and other destabilizing factors and why I personally continue to be much more ambivalent and sceptical about the relevance of blocking patterns at this stage of autumn in terms of what it might imply ahead. Just my view of course - and which customarily tries to be detached from mainstream hype that grows each and every year, at this time of year - and when sensible weather preferences and ideals often attempt to fit too many drivers to produce that desired outcome, when probabilities often suggest alternative solutions that are much less popular to the masses. The gist of this extract is that much is yet to become clearer in terms of seasonal overview, but especially stressing that model output commentary during the early stages of the short seasons and making assumptions based on persistence of certain aspects of patterns is fraught with error when attempting to assign specially selected drivers as a means to fit the desired outcome. To all those following progress of the weather patterns in the weeks ahead, try to enjoy progress and evolution - regardless of outcomes vs preferred outcomes
  3. 24 likes
    First I wasn't presenting a seasonal forecast ( just a paraphrased post) and am not a competitive forecaster anyway, and don't subscribe to competitive 'methods' either. If you read the post properly (which you didn't) then you would see that I illustrated this by saying that I don't have the technical where-with-all of the person (person(s) to which I referred. Being honest isn't a weakness and doesn't need to be compensated by tub-thumping statements that proclaim what the 'talk of the weather community is these days'... This is an an internet site for people of all levels and hopefully of managed ego's - , not a platform for parading 'method manifestos'. There is too much of this grandstanding in our outside world as it is... Arctic amplification was mentioned - I referred to it briefly as part of a condensed post and simply didn't write extensively about something that is pertinent to what you want to be the peoples anthem for the coming winter. It is one factor of many, which on its own does not lead to one favoured outcome all the time (as one season to another each year bears out), but involves consideration of multi-variables that might imply more than the one solution than a majority might want to hear. You are free to do this of course, if you want to steer towards a populist outcome - but things don't always work out in reality however convincing they might appear to those who like what they hear. Indeed things don't always work out for anyone when based on attempted objective discussion - the weather makes mugs of all of us. But better to start from a baseline that manages expectation and hopes to learn from mistakes rather than be a tribal lead to populist weather preferences . The price of narcissism does have limits
  4. 23 likes
    yep welcome back @tight isobar another 8 months trying to work out what any of your posts mean!!! can we have it in plane old english this winter??
  5. 19 likes
    Apologies about keeping the full post but it seems appropriate. Interesting post Steve. The situation is not that different from an empirical rule used in UK Met LONG before computers arrived in trying, in winter, to predict when a Scandinavian high could develop. The charts you show are not too different from the ideas behind the empirical rule and the probability of the ridge then persisting for more than 48 hours. Remember in the 50's and 60's only human forecasts were done so trying to predict beyond 24-48 hours was pretty unusual.
  6. 15 likes
    A terrific photo of an arcus cloud associated with a thunderstorm approaching Reading at 17.30 this afternoon. Photo courtesy of Simon Lee, Twitter @SimonLeeWx.
  7. 15 likes
    One of a number of photos today from Western Isles Weather of a possible tornado in the South of Lewis. Funnel clouds also reported in the North of the island. I believe that the owner of Western Isles Weather site may be a tornado chaser here.
  8. 14 likes
    Now this is what I call a North / South split!!
  9. 13 likes
    The trend for the ECM to make the GH more pronounced continues with the fabled black hole anomaly developing at day 9 & 10. Europe into the freezer- UK on the periphery but no signs of the GH abating at the end if anything its getting stronger
  10. 12 likes
    Thought I would pop in with a wee post as it is sad to see the tumbleweed blowing through here...even @Summer Sun has given up posting the Convective Weather daily outlook! Had some torrential downpours and nice cloudscapes over the past week - also Asperitas clouds last month. (Anyone seen them before?) Now that Summer/thunderstorm season has gone I thought I would look back at my favourite pictures I had taken of convection/thunderstorms from June/July/August - great season up here. And lastly I wanted to take some pictures after the thunderstorm/convection had cleared - which made for some dramatic scenes/sunsets. It really was a glorious Summer for warmth, convection/thunderstorms and skies - one I will never forget! Hopefully next Summer delivers the same (up here) and more thunderstorms for all of us! All the best! David
  11. 12 likes
    The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Currently frequent heavy showers over NW Scotland, courtesy of the proximity of the low and associated occlusion and further south twin bands of rain, courtesy of a trailing, waving front from yesterdays frontal system and one other, The showers will continue through today and the rain bands will slide slowly south as the fronts do likewise. Elsewhere quite a clear day The showers in the NW will continue this evening and overnight but the waving front now in the Channel is causing a few headaches as it's movement and the pulses of rain running along it could well linger over southern areas. Elsewhere again dry and relatively clear A continuation of the showers in the NW on Saturday but the problem with the position of the front persists and and it could well remain quite wet in the far south At best overcast and quite dank Over Saturday night and through Sunday pattern developments to the west have taken place resulting in in a reorientation of the front with a wave tracking north east accompanied by an upper cold front sneaking across western regions/. Ergo quite a wet day with showers and some longer periods of rain for most regions apart from the far north of Scotland The developments to west continue with a new upper low tracking into the Atlantic via Greenland whilst the UK has a day of sunny intervals and showers on Monday By Tuesday the new low dominates the Atlantic whilst the UK has a relatively fine and quiet day courtesy of a transient ridge But fronts from the aforementioned low will bring rain and strengthening winds to north western regions later in the day
  12. 11 likes
    Well it's that time of year when it's time to dust off the keyboard. I hope you have all had great summertimes. What a thing of beauty the GFS12z is today. It's been in the offing for 48 hours and, truth be told, we'd all much rather we saw it in December than October. Still, it's comforting to know that blocking hasn't disappeared from the earth or that the fabled Greenland High is just a thing of legend.
  13. 11 likes
    The GEFS 0z mean is trending towards a more benign / pleasant / settled last quarter of october..as per the operational!
  14. 11 likes
    Crazy amount of snowfall in Montana yesterday, 4 foot in 12 hours and still going ! Snow lovers get your fix on these pictures . C
  15. 11 likes
    And we all know what happened 2 months later.
  16. 10 likes
    I must admit I got a bit carried away yesterday and the models have again pulled the rug from under me. There is still some cold potential within the GEFS 0z but less so than yesterday and currently there is more chance of a mild or indeed warm late october and start to november..apologies if my excitable comments / tone misled anyone.
  17. 10 likes
    What is it with the control run of late spawning charts worth dwelling over lets take a look at it it all happens around day ten(yes i know it's day ten sigh) deep trough in N Canada forces WAA ahead of it up the west side of Greenland(black arrow),also notice the arctic high(white circle) creating some reverse -AO(arctic oscillation)(orange arrow) forcing the trough west of Greenland south lets have a look at the animated sequence of both the 500mb height's and 850. ' will it set a trend?
  18. 10 likes
    Well that's that then... Here we are on October 11th...and the coming winter is a write off! Even though last year's models pointed to relentless blocking and cold! How on earth can these seasonal models pick up on events like SSWs, these things can begin to devolop at relatively short notice!!! A winter of zonality then!!! I'll just get me coat and be back for a better update this time next year!!
  19. 10 likes
    There's more than a hint of winter about next week according to the Gfs 0z operational which is GREAT to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!❄
  20. 9 likes
    gem day 10 NH is amazing for the back end of October ....
  21. 9 likes
    Yet more rain here in west London, quite heavy, too. We did need some and I like heavy rain from time to time but it’s starting to get very monotonous. Would be good to get a period of high pressure soon, as Autumn sunshine, frosts, mists and fogs are beautiful.
  22. 9 likes
    Alot has been spoken about the long range models being poor for cold this year..... But, and its a big but.... Let's take a look at the big freeze of 1987....basically an average winter which Contained one of the most brutal frrezes of the century!! It spanned almost 11 days, with some parts of the UK being buried in up to 6Metre drifts of snow, temps going below - 20C at one point!!! Why do I harp on about this, and just what as it got to do with the coming winter? Even a mild winter can bring a big freeze with big snowfalls, the models at the time of this freeze really had no idea that it was about to hit so hard, most of Europe was mild, and so was the UK leading up to it! Intense cold coming out of Western Russia, with high pressure moving out of Siberia and planting itself over Scandinavia...... And boom.... Look what followed!! If I recall at the time some climate experts said that the freeze was partially down to Global Warming, and to expext many more events like this in the future!!! Well my friends, perhaps we are getting close to another extreme event of this magnitude.. Even in a mild Westerly dominated winter, we can still be hit for 6 with this kind of set up!!! For me huge amounts of Arctic ice melt will only serve to increase the chances, however short there duration maybe..... So let's all salute 1987....and pray for a repeat..... Hopefully this year!!!! Enjoy the rest of your weekends good folk.
  23. 9 likes
    The locked in pattern remains- Euro high /Icelandic low .. Everything i detest about the UK climate in a nutshell.
  24. 9 likes
  25. 8 likes
    Here are the daily readings from my local Met Office station at Wattisham from 1st Oct to 06.00 14th Oct. We are currently standing at 80.6mm of rain so far this month compared with the long-term average of 57mm for Wattisham for the entire month. Only one completely dry day so far. Wet, wet, wet. Source: http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03590&ndays=14&ano=2019&mes=10&day=14&hora=06&ord=REV&Send=Send If you want to run the data for your own nearest station, look for it in this list and then click on the station, then enter the number of days you want the report to go back (14 if you do it today) and submit. EDIT: Sorry - use this link if you want to run a report for a station near you: http://www.ogimet.com/gsynres.phtml.en
  26. 8 likes
    No...Not another #winterofdiscontent! I like it too, Fred. It's a promising start
  27. 8 likes
    Some crazy skies today like something otherworldly, multiple deluges even a thunderstorm nothing mental... Rotherhithe PWS has seen 16mm today and I suspect they’ll be more to add to that total by midnight.
  28. 8 likes
    The rules are more relaxed in regional threads well that’s been the impression, it seems SE thread has always received more scrutiny, perhaps because the people are more interesting. There’s opportunity to discuss wider daily going ons alongside weather. I feel you are being a bit of a misery guts... forcing people away like so many have, self expression is important and human, more difficult to see on virtual space we’re more than blank profiles, none of this rigid nonsense do you want it to be ‘dead’ and soulless in here? People who moderate need to do a better job and focus on what actually needs dealing with.. and Tom is certainly not someone you need looking at. as for lots of thunder and lightening not sure what part of town you were in!! Although it did give as much as we had seen all year, which does not say a lot. Quite a good weather day shame there’s been so little. In dry slot right now but more heavy PPN gathering to SW/W.
  29. 8 likes
    I haven't really commented on this thread thus far however firstly in terms of absolutes no-one can say 100% yes or 100% no- Probability wise the fact the UK's weather patterns are loosely based around the same cyclical reoccurring patterns then should the status quo of the lower atmosphere / upper atmosphere & thermal dynamics all stay the same its reasonable to assume that over a period of say 200 years if there have been 4 or 5 periods say of these consecutive cold winters at a 1:50 year rate then within the next 50 years a run will occur again. Based on statistics & frequency you could calculate the exact probability. The reality here is probably in the next 50 year a slight increase in probability due to the current favourable changes over the pole in terms of increasing geopotential heights & reduced sea ice forcing > This is of course a broad statement however just aligning this increase towards the general theme of 'supporting UK cold then its only fair to say that an incremental increase in probability is on offer... What could become more probable though is more extremes of cold & warm mitigating the overall net cold - so monthly CET values may become the chosen method rather than seasonal cold.... Best S
  30. 7 likes
    It seems as if the Scottish cold snap (with accompanied risk of snowfall) has more ensemble support than do the, much later, warm uppers in Southern England? Aberdeen: London: So, given all the scatter, nothing is anywhere near 'nailed on'?
  31. 7 likes
    Looking at the Gfs 0z operational it's a mild / very mild and rather unsettled end to october and early november...very mild halloween with sw'ly zephyrs!!! ...bit different to yesterday's 0z!
  32. 7 likes
  33. 7 likes
    Ding dong! Some early-season FI eye-candy to enjoy...? Not a great deal of support from the GEFS 00Z ensembles, though: Winter, she's a'comin'!!!!
  34. 7 likes
    One GFS run at +360hrs, it's got to be nailded on, surely? Meanwhile we have our continental skies back, gorgeous day but that wind has a nibble to it:
  35. 7 likes
    The ext GEFs indicating only slight relaxation of th trough influence in the eastern Atlantic. Perhaps becoming more of a northern bias vis the inclement weather and rainfall distribution does seem to indicate some quite large accumulations over western Scotland, particularly the outer Isles
  36. 7 likes
    Excellent analysis of today's rainfall totals by Weatherquest of Norwich this evening (19.00), especially their diagram showing the distribution across East Anglia. My total is currently 38mm. EAST: Averaged across the region, today (so far) is the wettest calendar day of 2019, and the 3rd wettest calendar day in the past 5 years. The wettest locations have been parts of east Norfolk and northeast Suffolk where 60-70mm has been recorded, locally higher. Source: Dan Holley. Twitter @danholley_ Pic of A47 in Norfolk this afternoon:
  37. 7 likes
    I wouldn't mind seeing more charts like this as we head towards winter..nice!!!!❄
  38. 7 likes
    It does feel like the darkness of autumn has really set in now, especially with the cloudy and windy damp weather. Would be nice to have some clear sunny days back though.
  39. 7 likes
    More brilliant posts @TomSE12 and as me and Tom have discussed my area also has a streamer setup which is similar to the Thames streamer with snow showers developing in the North Sea and entering the firth of forth before arriving here, here's hoping this winter has some in store for both our regions. Also here are forecasts from the Feb 2009 event that Tom superbly described And the superb summary of the event from @Paul Sherman
  40. 7 likes
    GFS 12z going for quite cool conditions around day 10 onwards . Not often you see a low in the Atlantic move west towards the USA they usually head east towards the uk , very strange run .
  41. 7 likes
    This is a very sad evening to see @TomSE12 leaving. I thoroughly enjoy reading his posts in the morning, SE historical weather and the detailed discussions with Mr Currie. To think that someone with such humour, knowledge, compassion for everyone else and and thoroughly brilliant writing style is being forced of this forum is perhaps a sad reflection of the wider world we now live in. This forum will be a duller and much less well informed place with Tom’s leaving. Such a shame!
  42. 7 likes
    The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight At the moment there is still some showery rain over Scotland from yesterday's frontal system which will clear this morning. But the main area of rain, with thundery outbreaks, is tracking northeast and is currently over central SW England and east Wales.and this will effect most of England and southern and central Scotland through the day. There could well be some significant rainfall in some places. Showers will follow in the wake of main rain area but by lunchtime another area of heavy showery rain will encroach the south west and move east. Note the convergence zone on the analysis. Through this evening and overnight the centre of the filling low moves into the southern Irish Sea and the bands of showery rain will continue to travel around in the circulation mainly effecting the north and south of the country. Cloudy and murky elsewhere Wednesday the low is over East Anglia so still some heavy showers around in the east, and to some extent Scotland also. whilst elsewhere tending cloudy but dry. But to the west a new trough has arrived on the scene Over Weds night and through Thursday fronts associated with the new low will sweep across the country bringing rain and quite strong winds to most with showers following on once the fronts clear to the east On Friday the country is in the circulation of the low now centred to the WNW of Ireland so a day of sunshine and showers with perhaps some longer spells of rain in western areas courtesy of the wrap around occlusion By Saturday we are reaching the point in the evolution that has previously been discussed with the block setting up in the Greenland/Iceland area and the two energy flows around it. Which essentially translates to windy showery day with another frontal system approaching from the south west.
  43. 7 likes
    Some quite staggering charts showing for this early, not even really out of the closed season yet, of course its arbitrary when it ends and not really a definition, but i would say its the point at which its scientifically possible for low level snow not just in the North to come into GFS range.
  44. 6 likes
    According to the gfs the next few days and through the weekend is essentially a struggle between the active trough to the NW/W, controlled by the TPV over northern Russia and the struggle by the European high to get a foothold. Complicated further by the trough getting a boost from a conduit established south of the now isolated high cell over Greenland And unlike in previous runs it fails to get a foothold and thus the weather becomes generally unsettled, Given the uncertainty of all of this I have no confidence whatsoever that this will be near the money
  45. 6 likes
    Massive downpour here, with hail and gusty winds. Rain rate of 128mm/hr at 23:06 And now a long deep roll of thunder!
  46. 6 likes
    Pub run T324: Quite something for October!
  47. 6 likes
    Another trigger over Greenland about to be pulled for second more potent go. -6c already there with -8c just waiting in the wings. Heavy snow for some places.
  48. 6 likes
    The GFS 00Z Operational, at least, gives cause for optimism, regarding some much-needed drying-out time...? Though, I'm not sure as to how much support the decent drying-out spell has from the ensembles; they do keep faffing about...? So, hey, ho...it's on to the 06Zs!
  49. 6 likes
    I would say folks would be even less happy if those charts aren't being spilled out come then!
  50. 6 likes
    Well they would say that wouldn't they, seen as though Electoverse is an AGW-denialist website. Total nonsense, like the rest of the rubbish on there.
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