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Showing content with the highest reputation since 17/01/19 in all areas

  1. 68 points
    UKMO amazing - snow event followed by more snow events + longivity of cold What more could we be asking for...
  2. 66 points
    I've just read through the last 10 pages or so. Some of you seriously need to think about taking a break from watching the models and taking every run as gospel. It's gone from euphoria to throwing toys out the pram in the space of a few hours! Walk away from the computer, life is too short!
  3. 64 points
    Beginners guide to the psyche of a model watcher in Winter..... 1) A cold spell is shown in FI - "it will never verify it will all go pear shaped" 2) A cold spell moves into the reliable timeframe - "that run looks very dry hardly any snow showing there" 3) The snow arrives after the commencement of said cold spell - "it maybe snowing outside but this cold spell looks like it will be finished next week" We are at Stage 2 at the moment! A very decent start to the day today model wise. I would be very happy in the event the ECM verified and it would seem that all roads lead to cold this morning. Indeed the GEM is a cracker following the durge it produced last night! But will it snow IMBY? 😄
  4. 63 points
    EC Ens up to 6 on the clusters, but the key stand out is the blocking platform across them, atlantic is primed, AAM has spiked precisely when the downwelling advertised on the paint drip connects - Genuinely cannot see a road back to the flatter solutions from here. I think 'That ECM' will get usurped in the not too distant future.
  5. 63 points
    No charts tonight - on a train and on my phone which is tedious... But did want to post some text. My eyes are moving beyond the trough now - I was pretty confident in it at the weekend and am now certain. How much snow will we get? David's post highlighting the arrival of the expected next pacific spike is very timely. While we were wading through the tedious first half of the month the pot at the end of the rainbow was always the potential for a downwell that synchronised with a powerful pacific spike. It's taken the third time of asking to arrive - but it's here. This is going to mean reinforcement of the Euro trough at the same time as a push for stronger heights to the north, and this at a time when the ssw has already begun to affect the pattern. And this in turn I think is going to mean quite a steep pressure gradient and some really quite cyclonic continental weather as the trough beds down. I'm still thinking that the block has to setup over greeny rather than scandy in the medium term, though at the start of the season I did admit to being frustrated at an inability to get ridge positions exactly right and I want to get better at this - modelling appears to be favouring more of a scandy block at the moment - but in the end ridge position when the Euro trough is deep is probably not so important overall as the feed will be cyclonic and bitterly cold at this time of year either way. And all this adds up to some considerable snowfalls I think. Someone next to me on the train just said "it's supposed to rain on Tuesday..." and I was close to grinning at him and offering an alternative view....but let's just watch it unravel. I suspect the next few weeks won't be especially dry or especially wet. Something else. 😁
  6. 61 points
  7. 59 points
  8. 59 points
    GFS pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z UKMO goes from a 5/10 to a 8.5/10 which is the best positive GEM goes from zero to hero with a stella run & ICON drops in as well... A superb start to the day beast confidence ~ 75%
  9. 57 points
    At last we have what we've been predicting - a poleward surge in +ve AAM. Another important piece in the jigsaw for Arctic blocking: The relative GLAAM tendency anomaly has spiked upwards and looks set to reach its highest level of the winter. Global MT is surging upwards and both NAMT and EAMT are strongly +ve too. The GWO has already looped back into phase 5 and is set to go into a much higher orbit through phases 5, 6 and 7. This is the strong tropical forcing that we've been saying is needed to assist the down welling in the stratosphere. So far, I believe that the models have just begun to sniff out the SSW surface impacts. They usually struggle to pick up on the tropical forcing. So we go from a pretty destructive phase into a really constructive one. In the mid term (say day 10 onwards but perhaps sooner and remember that these charts have a 2 day output time lag) this should hugely assist with the HLB patterns. I would expect the models to start picking up on this over the next few days but with various blocking outcomes and solutions. A CAUTIONARY NOTE: We still need to monitor how the jet stream phasing in the Pacific behaves and this has impacts on the US storm system(s) and a knock on down stream in the Atlantic. This may or not not be favourable in the short term but given the prolonged SSW event, the strength of the MT spikes and poleward momentum the opportunity is likely to persist for many days (or weeks).  Continued exciting model watching for the rest of this month and beyond. No more time this week. David 🙂
  10. 56 points
    Ho hum dee dum. Interview done and back to the phone to see the most awesome GFS output of the season. Being blunt - pity it's GFS...but maybe something in the data has changed and we'll see ECM latch onto the same later. I hope brethren in the SW have woken up, because we'd have people drowning in the drifts again....... Usually a run like that would be written off...and in all probability it is overly extreme BUT worth pointing out at this stage that the evolution is not out of kilter with the forcings that are being applied to the north Atlantic circulation. Recent EC strat charts have shown a signal for a block to the W/NW and a jet driven further south, and so a split flow like that is entirely within the envelope of the possible, as impacts of the SSW increase. I'm sorry I can't access all my charts etc on my phone, but once home I'm going to have a really good look at the evolution of the pattern and see what may be what. Meanwhile don't forget that Tuesday is approaching and can still deliver for many. Just needs a westerly tweak as a product of underestimation of high pressure strength....something we have seen several times before. Jan 18 today. Can anyone remember the gloom and frustration of 10-14 days ago? Neither can I. Shows things can move very quickly in weather terms at times, and gloom should always be tempered with optimism when the signals are good.
  11. 56 points
    Crikey! Not sure how anyone musters up anything negative about the overnight runs. 1. Did the UKMO improve? Check ✅ 2. Do the ECM and GFS still show and easterly? Check ✅ 3. Are we very much in the winter games for the first time this winter? Check ✅ EC mean at 144 (important time frame) BINGO ps some of you wake up far too early to look at the models. I’d have to peel my eyes open and nail them to my forehead at that hour.
  12. 54 points
    That has to be a pretty rare sight. Back in March I was left feeling we had experienced a spell of very late season snow and cold that would be unlikely to happen again in a good long while. There is a chance - a chance - it might be topped if the depth of cold modelled now digs in for the long term. I was certain that we would see some good blocking this season conducive to cold and snow chances but I did not see such a deep trough and an SSW long delayed but high impact downwell like this that might paint northern Europe white for weeks. Maybe we can get somehing to happen that will take Brexit off our screens for a bit. Might be just what we need as a country...something cold and snowy to bring everyone back together!
  13. 52 points
    Just a snippet..... METO have briefed the Government that there's a 70% chance of 'severe cold' in early February. Half decent odds in my book. 👍
  14. 52 points
    Not often we see heavy snow arrive from the west, stay as snow throughout the whole period and then keep on the ground with more snow and no melting until the end of the run. Who's knocking the GFS now LOL. Probably just, perhaps, maybe, I would bank this run.....
  15. 51 points
    Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.
  16. 51 points
    No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.
  17. 50 points
    I'm sorry but that's just not true mate. Look - <-- Heights to our north, just because they're not yellow. I'd crawl naked over broken glass for that to verify. That low to the NW is heading SE under the HP, carmageddon follows. Now go have a happy pill and play nicely with the other weather folk.
  18. 50 points
    Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating. Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges.
  19. 48 points
    Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !
  20. 47 points
    Incredible. Just utterly insane effort from the GFS..Filthy.
  21. 47 points
    Afternoon all After some uncertainty with regards to the track of a winter storm over the eastern USA this weekend and how far out into the far north Atlantic it will track and interact or phase with low pressure ahead of it near Iceland diving southeast towards the North Sea Tuesday, it appears the models are starting to converge on the idea of low pressure over North Sea Tuesday dropping southeast across mainland / central Europe into Wednesday, while pressure / geopotential height rises build in to the north of the UK and over Scandinavia The buckling of the jet over the far north Atlantic ahead of that storm passing Nova Scotia Tuesday and jet stream downwind over the NE Atlantic turning southeast as a result, allows low pressure to dive southeast from Iceland towards the North Sea then into mainland EU and looks to be the main trigger for pressure to build to the north and northwest of the UK later next week. However, there are also signs, from the ECMWF high resolution, of an arctic high forming over eastern Greenland, I mentioned this yesterday too, perhaps in response to easterly winds starting to propagate down through the troposphere from the lower stratosphere – following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming to start the year. EC, with its better vertical resolution, probably get a better handle on the downwelling and how it will affect trop patterns and yesterday's EC stratosphere charts on the Berlin site showing easterly winds finally reaching down into the troposphere by the middle of next week. 06z GFS also has the easterlies reaching down through the troposphere, perhaps a few days later This arctic high has, on a few ECMWF runs now, been indicated to drop south to Scandinavia intensifying high pressure there, this and the sequence of events leading to the flow buckling northeast over the Atlantic portending to an easterly or northeasterly flow to develop towards the tail end of next week. However, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty how the synoptic pattern will evolve in detail, for now, beyond Wednesday, suffice to say an increasing risk, say 70%, for very cold air and increasing snow risk to arrive from NE Europe by the end of next week or next weekend. This very cold pattern could be sustained into early February, thanks to the delayed and slow downwelling of easterly winds in the stratosphere impacting circulation in the troposphere but over a protracted period too, so high latitude blocking could persist for a few weeks at least. Before then, worth keeping an eye on Monday night - active frontal system diving SE with quite cold northwesterly flow immediately behind coming from a very coold Greenland and NE Canda, 00z ECMWF was not overly keen on back edge snow away from more northern areas, 00z and 06z GFS show back edge snow all the way to southern England. Sleet and snow showers packing in behind across the northwest.
  22. 47 points
    Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!
  23. 46 points
    Touchdown. GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.
  24. 45 points
    Warning: Be careful when you look at the models this morning, you may need some ‘alone time’
  25. 44 points
    Kind of chart we search all winter for at just T+132...
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