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  1. 43 points
    Yes, it showcases one interpretation of a pattern that is finally evolving (well at least from my own non-NWP perspective) as expected for a time that feels longer than this wonderful summer so far itself The tribal upgrade/downgrade commentaries (beyond the post under reply) are unfortunately completely obscuring a much bigger picture which is actually far more illuminative and interesting - and its a pity that some continue not to see the beauty of the trees because of the *apparent* thickness of the wood If I was to pick a very good NWP representative of the way ahead then todays ECM clusters well advertise it with secondary development of a main trough becoming congregative in the central eastern Atlantic transitionally (and that is the key word) mixing it up with the domes of heat that are converging both over and to the east of us. So if a mix of hot sunshine interspersed with a tropical mix of thundery developments swinging north and east, followed by resumption of more hot sunshine cannot break through upgrade/downgrade tedium that is based around a fulcrum of temperature profiles (from "min" to max) that are, in truth, way above the normal benchmark for an average British summer - then nothing ever will and perhaps perspective is so absurdly desensitised in terms of expectation, as well as divorced from reality - that a new hobby should be found that will invoke less spasmodic and irrational reaction With Pacific tropical forcing ebbing and flowing around a constant signal over the coming weeks and likely, overall, keeping atmospheric angular momentum at a level higher than seen since early June, then its intuitive to equally expect to see this pattern persist for quite some time. The Global Wind Oscillation likely reflecting such a windflow (and associated synoptic pattern) with focus around a Phase 4,0,8,4 orbit. The plot image might need a double-click if it appears in black initially So, the long anticipated transition from the unusually northward displaced Azores/Atlantic ridge eastward extension domination (very warm and bone dry regime) to Atlantic low and downstream Euro/Scandinavian ridge domination (more humid, sequentially hotter at times with "cooler" re-sets, and rather less homogenously settled overall) is almost complete. From my viewpoint at least its nice to see a pattern evolve in tune with GSDM diagnostic assistance that help ride out NWP obfuscations In the here and now, a welcome (warm) crop of showers here today to help the garden and the wildlife leading to yet another lovely British summer weekend - what is there not to like about that?
  2. 41 points
    So, the much anticipated eventual pattern evolution that started occupying thoughts at the start of this month to Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge aligning exceptional heat are now fully in focus - with a spectacular convective undercut to end this week in parts of the country. Yet another milestone in this amazing summer that wants to keep on building... and then rebuilding. And, also as envisaged, NWP is now fully gunning for the next re-load. Rinse and repeat. How do we maintain faith in the extraordinary pattern further prevailing? First and foremost to answer that - the here and now. The Global Wind Oscillation is now fully capturing the shift in upper tropical forcing to the Pacific and the atmosphere showing all the hallmarks of embracing the beginnings of an El Nino standing wave to keep growing in the rest of the summer and into autumn . The importance of the first embedded plot is less to do with any question attached to performance of model seasonal forecast looking ahead - but more the early imprint of the standing wave which is already recorded. Also, and as shown in the second plot above, the tropical >.extra tropical shift of forcing as described already is represented by highest orbit of the GWO since the huge tropical momentum propagation that led up to the Feb SSW event - currently a high amplitude Phase 4. On the cusp of entry to the El Nino attractor phases 5,6,7 of the GWO In synoptic terms this translates to greater amounts of net westerly winds being added to global wind-flows and propagating via rossby wave dispersion into the extra tropics to support repeated downstream amplification and perpetuating the anticyclonic heat domes - that have been intensifying over many weeks now without sufficient inertia to move them away. The tripole SST imprint in the Atlantic continuing to imprint and reinforce the summer feedback processes What is significant for August is the integration of that fledgling El Nino standing wave ocean/atmosphere coupling that is representative of the eastward shift in upper tropical forcing that has started occurring and implies that the Pacific rossby wave dispersal forcing is on an auto-repeat - and thus likely to transfer to another MJO phase orbit into the Pacific (Phases 5 to 7) into the new month. This mirrors the recent sequence, with a temporary shift back in angular momentum as the current wave fades in line with passage of the kelvin wave before yet another boost upwards as the re-coupling occurs over the Pacific. The subsequent re-coupling being stronger than the first time around. And so on, and so forth. This implies a very likely further orbit back to, at least, elevated GWO Phase 4 which endorses NWP suggestion of ridging returning in the early August period to further build on the heat stoking processes of the summer- and which will keep simmering over vast swathes of mainland Europe to the south and east, regardless of the temporary re-set of the pattern that happens closer to the Atlantic trough this weekend and into the early part of next week and which will bring some welcome rain to many who have not seen any for weeks. Irrespective of likes, dislikes, personal risks and hopes and wishes of holiday-makers and the tourist industry, do weather enthusiasts justify pursuing the challenge to records very possible into the new month? You bet The benchmark set for that of the next couple of days is relative to old records - but also to be potentially matched and even exceeded into the new month. It is, and will continue to be watched very closely
  3. 33 points
    I think its a given that everyone understands we are not twinned with Ayers Rock - but there is understandable interest in heat records at unusual times like this However, while balance is always a very good thing, that that certainly doesn't mean over compensating by putting an absurdly over dampened and misconstrued slant on realities.. A small minority continue to unhelpfully distort perspective for reasons only they will know. *Its her broken record time once more I know* but always necessary to read between the lines when it comes to NWP and accept that a diagnostic approach to numerical models can help decipher where signals are being misconstrued or overdone. The few overreactive and unsubstantiated comments on this thread are much harder to comprehend than the intra day variations and apparent departures that the numerical models all too often come up with - and which promote the reactions themselves. So good reasons, yet again, to step back and try and see the trees for the wood NWP not surprisingly jumping on the tropical signal waning over the Pacific which leads to the temporary loss of influence of the Scandinavian ridge. Hence it fully explains why the trough has greater influence at the weekend into early next week than seemed apparent. But then guidance has been steady in troughs bumping up against the summer ridging and so really what is happening is still within the envelope of possibilities stated on the tin. Stating the obvious perhaps, but I do think that nothing more, nothing less should be made of this than it merits. Set against this extraordinary summer as a whole and in context of the much bigger picture outlook it is a mere snapshot in time and really doesn't merit over dramatization. As discussed yesterday, the tropical signal looks set to re-emerge back over the Pacific (its not just my own modest consensus on this) and its a matter of timing in terms of ressurection of our summer ridging closer by as the trough recedes to the NW.. There are going to be some adjustments to angular momentum with this passage of events and its wise not to prematurely seize on NWP solutions which while they may not be wholly incorrect, may well amount to temporary positions and not end games in themselves. As alluded to yesterday in this respect the GWO is now on the cusp of the El Nino attractor phase 5 This is a clear sign that the atmosphere is embracing a weak El Nino shift. With the shifts in tropical activity we are seeing to the Pacific that are part of a long term change in regime, then its intuitive to expect westerly winds bursts to be associated with this which will have the effect of Asian jet extensions in the extra tropics that will serve to promote cyclonic activity in the Pacific. The downstream ramifications of this is to promote a corresponding trough and ridge configuration in the Atlantic and European sector. The longer term trend of uptick of activity in the Pacific also suggests the sub tropical Jetstream increasingly coming into play as time goes on which supports further advection of heat from the south with ridging overlaying advancing troughs. Its still early and not the strongest signal (yet) but EPS clusters starting to play around with this theme With all that in mind then its interesting that EPS is keener to see a more -ve NAO signal than the operational So best to wait and see how NWP resolves matters and not take too much at face value over the coming days in terms of initial placement of positioning of the re-setting of the ridge and where any trough sets up that counters the intuitive solutions. That also is a cautionary word to anyone who is tempted to try to suggest that further reload of a very warm/hot pattern is being indefinitely postponed
  4. 32 points
    Unsurprisingly I very much share the sentiments of both @tight isobar and @Singularity Why is it a modelling bomb? That exaggerates and masks the reality Its not necessary to repeat the whole extracts of yesterday but best to look at ensemble means and then integrate them into the bigger diagnostic picture as described and not take each and every operational output at face value. Its a big pity that the focus of continuing to make temperature records is detracting from the fact that the outlook continues to be very much an above average summer one with conditions that many would jump for joy about in an average summer. The modelling looks to be attempting to repeat the early-mid summer pattern with a sub tropical ridge extension with the heat axis focussed around how sharp the cut-off features are to the south west to advect the greatest heat northwards and north eastwards. This in itself isn't a bad thing anyway by any means - with a lot of highly enjoyable summer weather. Many will be very happy with temps well into the twenties without need for record breaking heat (as interesting and exciting as it is to see from an enthusiast point of view) so as to live day to day comfortably But the difference this time around, and why it was stated yesterday that the latest solutions are not necessarily end-games, is that the atmospheric circulation has started adopting a more Nino-like feedback (for all the detailed reasons and illustrations given) which doesn't support Atlantic ridging sustainably and I suspect once the upper tropics start to register the next round of tropical forcing and associated rise in angular momentum the pattern will adjust east with re-set of the Atlantic trough and ridge to the NE. This suggests that further plume conditions cannot yet be ruled out - as said yesterday its about timing of such a development That is actually the less settled outcome as we are currently seeing. Its no coincidence that the warmth of this summer has sustained long-term from the 'home-grown' variety topped up with some tropical maritime air in the circulation of the sub tropical ridging. In other words a stable high pressure environment. Its no coincidence that the appearance of a plume has injected instability into the equation which in turn helps facilitates a breakdown. That is the risk vs reward factor of east/west patterns. These plume patterns can of course be cyclical in themselves with continual re-loads following thundery breakdowns. A summer such as 1994, just for example, featured quite a lot of this type of pattern during June and July We should count ourselves very lucky in 2018 that we have a summer which is featuring both kinds of anomalously warm patterns. These sorts of summer do not come about very often
  5. 31 points
    Can we please avoid quoting posts with dozens of charts? Or better still, avoid posting dozens of charts in a post unless it's really necessary. It's a nightmare for folks using phones to browse the forum.
  6. 27 points
    I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post. Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!) You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading. You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192. Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south. In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August. The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10. There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.
  7. 25 points
    Should the models land as envisaged by the Ensembles then the 2018 summer is on a par in terms of stationary blocking to 1962/63 winter... Poss / prob record breaker we could get all time high Monthly CET & record summer CET at the end of August..
  8. 22 points
    @Singularity Yes, the usual caveats and cautionary words for deterministic MJO modelling - especially with this Pacific forcing Which leads appropriately onto this: Have been wondering for quite a while if this is where we are headed for the last third of the official summer in terms of overall pattern I hesitate to use these composite charts as they need careful assessment of the whole tropical and extra tropical wind-flow spectrum before applying to any suggested evolution of pattern and should never be taken at complete face value - certainly in terms of attempting to translate them into surface pressure detail. But this is consistent enough with transition years to El Nino starting from the Spring, and now showing the atmosphere starting to tentatively embrace a fledgling very weak Nino type of feedback for the first time in a long time... ..and more importantly than that, consistent with where angular momentum and tropical forcing are at this time as reflection of the base state changes that look to prevail the further official autumn approaches. Also seasonal wavelength changes, assuming relative angular momentum does not deviate too much below current levels in the natural tropical cycle (and this will need to be watched) will in my opinion guide the current evolving pattern in this general direction. Furthermore plenty of seasonal modelling supports this type of evolution and its worth noting in this respect also the very extended METO forecast indications heading through August. Taking heed of my own cautionary advice with respect to the composite chart above - the depth of the trough anomaly into Europe should best be interpreted as heat lows with the focus being the main upper trough to the west increasingly taking on a more disrupted aspect to the south west at the same time as the ridging to our NE overspreads the trough somewhat. So a continental feel to the weather and perhaps more prone to thundery disruption within the huge heat field that has taken siege occupation of much of Europe. I would like to see this as an acid test of some data, and as to be expected to be said by me, not a forecast - as I do not try to attempt these. But based on personal interpretation of the GSDM, in which a lot of kudo-faith is placed, and the way that NWP (ignoring the daily calf on roller-skates accident-prone type tendencies) is showing willing to stumble its way along this path as led most realistically by the upper modelling outlook forecasts, then it seems an intuitively fair suggestion to put out there. I think its also reasonable as part of this thinking to add support to Mushy's feasibility equation of a main heat spike dome in the early part of August. At least to some degree. If the trough pattern is to evolve, eventually, towards the SW as part of the above process, then its logical enough to assume that at least some of that greater heat (over and above the already existing very upwards adjusted levels of the summer so far) might be backed westwards - at least for a time. The ECM has been appearing progressive currently, relatively, with the pattern up to day 10. But even within this snapshot of time (which is all it is) one cannot ignore the next acceleration of trend in early August which is immediately beyond this period - in that respect not too different from GFS. And, which also leads full circle to the start of the post and the likelihood that Pacific forcing is not done with so soon. These stats might be London based, but taking into consideration the rationale eschewed in the post, it might be the greatest chance for wider plume advection. Its possible thereafter that a generally warm and humid regime prevails as the very greatest heat is mixed out and with scope for the drought to be alleviated to some degree as the heat more generally destabilises over larger areas within the evolving August regime. But that is filed away under pending based on how, precisely, the coming weeks play out. Summer 18 as a season has some weeks left in it, and in terms of its prevailing highly seasonal weather type, has quite some way to go yet
  9. 21 points
    Just adding one more point to the discussion- Why are we talking records being broken next weekend-? We are looking at about 36/37 degrees in the Extreme SE on Friday with a slither of upper air temp @18c- The original core heat over spain was maxed out at 21/22c - which in truth isnt 'that' hot for them - ( probably average spanish uppers ) Now move forward 10 days & the plume thats potentially developing for the UK actually develops North out of Africa with uppers bordering 30c (192 ) This is like cold pooling in winter - with the +30c line being like the -26c line getting towards Berlin. This moves North & modifies as it does but the size of the heat bubble proper trumps this week - *IF* this alligns Northwards out of Africa > Spain > North to UK & we get the 21c isotherm over the sea we will break the record. 100% S
  10. 21 points
    So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week. The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain. You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks.. Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes. edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning. Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.
  11. 20 points
    Never mind all this heat, lets have some more of this, lets hope we carry on where we left off at the end of last winter.
  12. 20 points
    Draztik, we appreciate you are new to this but Steve has been here many years and is a well respected member of the forum. I think the clue in his post might be the use of the words 'Outside/very slim'. Probably best to read the post properly first and digest what it says before making a comment which quite frankly makes you look a little silly. And as others hace mentioned he is commenting on the current run.
  13. 19 points
    The Met Office said that back in August 2003, when 38.5C occurred, the 1000- 850 hPa thickness was 142.5 to 142.8 dam. Not quite that is showing on Friday. Never mind sunshine amounts/Cloud/TS. 36.7C July record does look likely to be beaten, and exciting week. Glad I'm not in it though.
  14. 19 points
    Well it was a strange experience watching that 12z GFS roll out earlier. So much so that I'm going to provide some details, for entertainment value: Here at +168, the 12z on the right compared to the 06z on the left has a more conducive jet stream alignment to building the Scandinavian blocking high closer to our shores over the following few days, as the jet up the western flank of the block is stronger (better warm air advection aloft) and the jet to the SW of the UK is diving more to the south. Yet just two days later the blocking high seems to be just falling apart in-situ on the 12z run (middle chart), and a very peculiar section of flat jet stream has manifested in the N. Atlantic. I've never seen that manner of jet occur in a location with only a weak trough in position (rightmost chart). The 06z had the more natural (for weak troughs under +AAM regime) buckled jet and maintenance of the blocking high E and NE of the UK. It makes the difference between the blocking high persisting to day 10 and beyond and it being 'punctured' by the jet stream, leading to a (probably too rapid on this run anyway - it is GFS after all) capitulation with a more westerly upper flow taking over to our NE. Perhaps it was just a fluke run, with the misjudgement of the mid-Atlantic profile setting off a chain reaction - chaos theory in all its glory. Time will tell, but I'd be stunned if it wasn't, given the strong misalignment with the tropical forcing at play. To be fair to it though, all of the models are finding more westerly progressiveness and SW-NE ('semi-zonal', you might say) alignment to the troughs than could be expected with the +AAM background and eastward MJO propagation, likely due to their ongoing struggle at resolving the latter. I mean just look at this. Day after day, the EPS mean (shown as ECMF) seeks to kill the MJO off, and yet apart from a brief pause on 18th, the MJO has propagated eastward. So what about today? Another move east and a gain in amplitude! Honestly, this is the worst model handling of the MJO that I've witnessed since I started paying close attention during the winter of 2009/10. I believe it's a case of atmospheric inertia being underplayed against a Pacific tropical SST pattern that's only weakly supportive of the propagation. Perhaps this is where tight isobar's confidence has had some roots...? It may be too late for this MJO calamity to have much effect on the track of the Sun-Mon trough, but it might be enough to keep the S and SE under very warm or quite hot conditions (edit: just checked the rainfall charts for the ECM 12z and it has the front reaching all but the far southeast corner having already brought some intermittent rain to much of the south on Sunday afternoon! A shocking result given the signals but as CS alludes to, the trough evolution is dubious. You never know though!). I expect we'll gain a good idea about that within the next few days. Then... we'll see. I'd not entirely mind being wrong in that I could then enjoy something more akin to the May-June pattern of ridging from the southwest with relatively comfortable temperatures, but it would feel like an affront to teleconnection theory (tropical forcing is now very different to what we had May-June!) so I'm very divided in opinion! Regardless of the outcome, it's been very interesting and educational watching these models take on a combination of changing upstream forcing and unusual amounts of hot air amassing over the near continent, and I expect this will continue to be the case for a while longer yet .
  15. 19 points
    Remember 850s held in situ at around 16-18C are enough to break records Stationary air is the key ingredient ( a bit like winter minima )
  16. 18 points
    Agreed - not sure what all the fuss is about TBH... Same people saying the same the same recycled posts from last week.. Thats the ones saying that this weeks heat was downgrading & almost outrage when I said we would get North of 35C Now look today we are still talking probabilities of 38c going. All this waffle about downgrades - dont let em fool you, the original plume was forecast Friday next week & its pretty much on track as expected... Another 35c here we come...
  17. 18 points
    Often overlooked, but worth noting SST anomalies are below average around Greenland and generally around far NW and N Atlantic - which doesn't encourage +ve heights in the area, whilst seas around NE Atlantic and around Scandi are anomalously warm, aiding sustained +ve heights / blocking - so we could see blocking over Scandi for the long run and the background signal favour a more meridional jet pattern over the Atlantic as a result - UK and much of Europe kept in the oven as a result. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml
  18. 17 points
    Indeed UKMO builds the moderate heat into the SE again ( circa 25c ) as early as day 4 - with 30c a possibility on day 6 in the SW.. So all in all pretty much as originally planned ....
  19. 17 points
    Not sure why so many are writing the plume off yet.... We are only a couple of hundred miles away - especially as the models are correcting west .... Also some saying that it wont even reach 30c > Meanwhile UKMET already notched the forecast up by 1c from yesterday to 33c
  20. 16 points
    Explosive convection to my west in Norwich. I can see it growing, its immense! Not seen anything like it before except on Storm Chasers on the TV
  21. 16 points
    In an-average summer (not that this is!) Some would likely be raving about set ens-set up-. Especialy as we migrate a little further into the new month of august! They remain firm and notable to pressure rises going forwards...and with the 'already' mass in place iberian/southeastern euro warm/hot pool firmly in-place the possibilities of aligned placements for a uk tap in remain firmly on the table. Surface cond's also stark in there note of remaing above/well above going forwards. Its a the moment as if the models(bar gem) are desperate to resort to default..and with the slight expance of atlantic cooling thats is going to happen as complexities are deciphered!. Im still of the opinion that august will have at least blasts of hot iberian/continental surge. And again with some eye catching temps. And it will certainly be an, interesting watch...seeing how cross model suites unfold ...especialy once the weekend closes. Edit; taking all onboard id expect the mods to slowly begin to make less of the atlantic influence-and more of dominance via a southerly traction of weather into NWeuro as a whole...including the uk.
  22. 16 points
    Looks like some could see a decent thundery breakdown of the heatwave from Thursday night through to early Saturday, as the upper flow ahead of upper trough to the west strengthens and becomes increasingly cyclonic which will, by creating increasing large scale ascent and cooling aloft, will start to destabilise a very hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Britain. could see some mid- level destabilisation from the south as early as Thursday night across SE/E England, as hot and moist plume characterised by high theta-w values advecting N destabalises in the mid- levels as upper air starts to cool from the west steepening lapse rates and one or two short waves run N/NE creating lift. These potential elevated storms clearing Friday morning but still an increasingly hot and humid airmass in place across E England which looks to become increasingly unstable at the surface too as temps rise into low 30s in any sunshine, with surface sea breeze convergence inland perhaps the trigger for some surface based storms across E England, E Mids and N England, aided by continuing cooling aloft / steepening lapse rates and increasingly large scale ascent aloft of approaching upper trough to the west. Vertical shear will be on the increase too, as strengthening Sly flow / jet stream slides in aloft ... so scope for severe storms with all hazards to develop. This is ahead of cold front moving in from the west and clearing eastern England Friday night, which itself may bring a band of thundery rain east. some differences between these models on timing of this potential episodes of storms, GFS more progressive in moving everything east compared to slower ECM and UKMO, so a little uncertainty over detail, suffice to say storms most likely across eastern side of Britain.
  23. 16 points
    Looking at Friday, we are slowly heading towards a consensus. UKMO/GFS GFS a tiny bit further east but very little in it now. Further on and the UKMO again suggests that any push of westerlies will have a very tough time with the heat holding on in the far east even into Saturday before pressure begins to rebuild from the south and south west. The GFS has a similar idea though again pushes things a little further east with the initial surge of heat. I can't really see any prolonged return to cooler weather with a recovery in pressure looking very swift along with the return of very warm air from the south and for some the warmth may potentially never leave at the end of this week.
  24. 16 points
    Guys, don’t reply to posts you feel are trolling, please report them and the team will sort them. more replies = more posts to remove to get the discussion on track and quite honestly it is waaaaaay too hot for me to be doing this at 10.30 on a Sunday night with an errant 3 year old that won’t sleep. Don’t feed em! (kids, trolls, gremlins etc)
  25. 15 points
    Afternoon All So the weekend shows a little weaker presentation in terms of Max temps with tops up around 27-28c ( initially progged @31-32 ) - All due to a little more 'Westerlyness' in the flow - The real talking point is the 12z operational showing what would certainly be the most optimal chance of the year for proper 'plumed' heat & no doubt a chance of 35c & an outside / very slim notion of 39c / 40c. Those numbers are of course at the real extreme end of the envelope however we have been there before & certainly the current dryness of the continent & UK may support an additional 1-2c in terms of absolute maxima .. Whilst these numbers are certainly available it will take a very tailored flow & conditions for the uk to approach the record- most importantly the sustained period of >17/18c uppers mixed down to the surface & minimal wind as well as no cloud cover ( ideally ) Lets see how it develops but even if we were only to reach low 30s the prospect of a 20c CET draws ever closer...
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