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BREAKING NEWS:- The first Nationwide dry spell , for 9 months ,predicted by the end of this week.....!☺

A storm passing the south end of Milton Keynes birthed a weak funnel cloud, lasting for a few minutes just before 5pm. Rotation in the cloud leading up to it was very evident!

Three things stand out this morning from gfs. A drying trend nationwide, that must be the most important thing that stands out. Secondly, a chilly airmass enveloping the UK, bonus plenty of sunshine, especially southeastern Britain. Thirdly, Frost ,will be problematic for just about all nationwide. A lot to cheer about, now the rain train is coming to a halt ,some pleasant Spring like weather on the way, ,no heavy rain , No gales , and bright cheery weather to be had , what's not to like about that! ☺

This is at Norwich at 3.45pm just had some big lightning and hail from this heavy shower.

It seems some are in denial. The mean for Manchester has highs barely in double figures for most part. It’s certainly a cool outlook with winds frequently coming from northerly direction with cool air aloft. A bit milder this weekend with high covering UK briefly, then it looks to re-centre further NW. it’s a very poor outlook if you’re looking for warmth. If only if it was winter comes to mind.

Just like to the 10 days before Easter the models were in full agreement of a deep Atlantic low just to the west of the UK, now we have solid agreement of an Atlantic high setting up to the west, and maybe shifting east to sit over the UK. Nothing particularly warm in sight at the moment but definately an end to the constant deluge is now pretty much guarenteed...Thank God!

Some from this afternoon. A fab day for some cloudspotting, about as classic of an April sunshine & (hail) showers day as it gets. Although a little chilly for my liking, the very strong sunshine makes up for it! Also some mammatus looking at the Coventry Airport cam when I didn't have the chance to capture them:

Shiver me timbers! Looks like we have a retrogressing high before our very eyes, ha ha haar (and other pirate noises) - even before it’s properly arrived. Whether ‘twill be as shivery as 6z GFS op at day 9, where it withdraws far enough to the northwest to allow a proper cold blast down the frontage with some snow a fair way south, and settling on the hills… or holds close enough nearby to keep the old lunger a bit further east like on the 0z GEM op at day 10 (beware that sea serpent beyond the pole, haar)… the retrogression and European trough are definitely looking to be features of week 2 - ‘tis here too on the 0z EPS at day 11. Aar. The CFS weeklies (weeks 1-3) show the Euro trough by week 3 being reinforced by its maritime buddy that’s come romping through the Azores in weeks 1 and 2, while to the north, the Atlantic heights hint at wobbling back east, a tad back our way again… …the big concern for us island landlubbers looking for something to warm our jellies is that rather than a generally quiet but cool outlook, the pattern in the event all heads just that bit further north bringing us back into chilly cyclonic influences that just judder your rafters. More pirate noises….

Some pretty intense hail showers have been hitting here

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

We had a storm earlier today around 2:30pm and had a thunder bolt so loud it made by ears ring . The power also went off . Just walked to the end of my street and the house as been struck. Reports from neighbours say there is damage to quite a few properties near by.

Couldn't resist an edit:

After a pretty torrid couple of months, the pieces are starting to move towards something much more palatable. It is no surprise that this is happening now, as the effects of the significant zonal wind reversal in the strat at the end of February start to wane. The NAM index over the last couple of months looks telling: This is effectively the Arctic Oscillation (AO) but at all layers of the atmosphere, and you can see from the plot how the negative values from the SSW have continued to just sit above the troposphere and impinge our weather ever since. That doesn’t mean we’ve had constant easterlies here - not all SSWs result in this anyway for the UK locally (and I think the ones that do are becoming rarer, I’ll come back to this), but the effect on the northern hemisphere more generally has been marked. The plot also shows that into the forecast period, that reign of terror from the strat is now over it has fully downwelled - it is benign from now on, so normal spring patterns have a belated chance to take hold. A final comment re the strat, and how things may be changing with global warming. With only 6 SSWs historically per decade, it is perhaps too early to tell, but my intuition is, well, two things, a) that SSWs are becoming more frequent, and b) that, when they occur, they are becoming less likely (than the 66% rule of thumb) to deliver cold scenarios for the UK in winter. A much more settled outlook is starting to become apparent in the 8-15 day modelling, here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240: Clusters 1 and 2 (combined with 44/51 of the runs) showing high pressure in charge over the UK, how welcome is that! T264+: Clusters 2,3,4 show a continuation of the high pressure local to the UK, but the main theme from all the clusters is the lack of anything from the Atlantic, finally, with the other clusters generally having a ridge to the west of the UK, which would be a cooler scenario.

It looks like there will be snow on Saturday, in my area and in part of the rest of Finland. Next week more snow or sleet is perhaps coming, this time of the year, it is not necessary anymore. Hoping that Summer months June/July is something like showing reanalysis, not like lastest summers. Sorry My bad english.

If you’re talking to me at least @ me thanks. In what way I have done that? All I’m saying temperatures are indicated to be well below average for late April, no one has mention snow and freezing temperatures and what can be expected at this time of year. You said about me being antagonistic, I think you should look at yourself, all you do is purposely try to undermine messaging, if anything cool is mentioned, it’s a repeated pattern from you. It’s as if it upsets you personally, I find it very odd it is just the weather.

Final post from last week's trip! First a few from last Tuesday, hiking to the wildcamp spot from Glenridding and the weather cleared up nicely for the evening which gave some great visibility! A sun dog made an appearance then slowly flew to the drone closer to Helvellyn to see a few small snow patches remaining. The North Pennines could be seen clearly as the sun was setting. Was worth staying inside the tents on a rainy Wednesday for a better Thursday. The clouds cleared during Thursday morning then made the hike to Helvellyn. Clouds shrouded the summit a little although the views were great and was nice to have some calm and dry conditions once more! And finally a few from Saturday, exploring some of Borrowdale, by-passing Eagle Crag and with a distant view of I Think Scafell Pike. Very windy but dry & mild with other hikers enjoying their Saturday afternoon as well. A lovely golden sunset to finish that day off. YouCut_20240406_144652368~3.mp4 Possibly I'll come back again in the near future, maybe some point in summer when hopefully things are warmer / drier and everything looking much greener!

Are we finally heading towards the promised land? As in, a U.K. high? The ensembles certainly think so. GEFS GEPS I’m not going to fret about random GFS Ops progging the big Greenland high. As long as the means stay solid on the U.K. high, we’re all good.

Want to start by revisiting the above statement from January, there can often be discrepancies between the various Meteorological Agencies particularly regarding ENSO statuses but we have BOM first to declare ENSO Neutral. Per my recent post here I discussed that the Super El Ninò Event had transitioned into more of a West Based Event, the latest ENSO discussion from NOAA agrees and gives further info https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf We'll have to await JMA and NOAA anouncing ENSO Neutral conditions and personally I dont get involved in debates a la Twitter last year with many arguing we weren't in an El Ninò though as I have discussed prior no 2 ENSO events behave indentically though there are common characteristics of each ENSO, and there can be lag in the Oceanic > Atmospheric 'coupling'. Newest ENSO outlooks from Met Office suggest ENSO Neutral heading into May with the oncoming La Nina conditions intensifying in the 1 & 2 Regions quite fast. Starting to see more details to add to some of my recent posts. Looking in more detail, the most significant developments upcoming, as the cyclonic system discussed here Merges with a cut off low in Northwest America this will link to the Tropospheric Vortex which is modelled to greatly intensify with indication potentially record breaking low pressure into Canada. Part of the MJO Indian Ocean > Maritimes feedback in an El Ninò in April as posted prior As shown in my recent post we continue to see the Atlantic Ridge in an El Ninò setup with another cold plunge during the next few days. Following on we have the high pressure moving into Ireland and the UK as mentioned prior plus as the Tropospheric Vortex developments occur in Canada this paired to the Negative PNA will see a high descending from West Canada across America with a new Arctic air outbreak, a relatively common pattern of the last few months which I've covered in the global thread. This will bring significantly below average temperatures. During the latter stage of April week 3 through April week 4 the Atlantic and Ireland-UK high will begin to take on the MJO and PNA feedback of blocking to our Northeast > Scandinavia and Russia, this will also retrograde into Iceland and Greenland as discussed prior with a good representation of many of the major European weather regimes / teleconnective feedback. Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance LINK.SPRINGER.COM Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like... Nothing surprising here factoring in recent MJO progression with an ongoing probable further feedback of multiple Stratospheric > Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, *though the current zonal winds are above average. Overall a prolonged period with below average temperatures will continue with some significant anomalies across Europe in particular, we then look during April week 4 as the High retrograde gets going for these below average conditions to extend into the UK > Ireland. Thanks for reading. KW

The most important thing to keep in mind is how much drier the outlook is. We've finally lost those damp westerlies and south westerlies off the Atlantic. The upcoming northerlies and northeasterlies will carry less moisture, particularly with high pressure still quite close to the country. It's unlikely to be bone dry, showers sometimes in the mix or light patchy rain, but for farmers or anyone (which is pretty much everyone) who is sick of the flooding and non stop rainfall, this is very good to see. The sun is as strong as it is at the end of August now, and with afternoon temperatures in the 10-13C range, that would still feel quite pleasant and accelerate evaporation following any rainfall. Expecting low 20s and no rain through most of April is a very high expectation, and recent Aprils have spoiled a lot of us and exceeded said expectations. April usually isn't a month for something that contains prolonged warmth or non stop sunshine. Though something warmer and sunnier will probably come into May or early summer though, it has to!

my better half sent me this - from outside her shop in sale. i see no lightning on the radar but she's saying there is a lot of low rumbling going on, that line has been travelling SE for the last two hours.. WhatsApp Video 2024-04-16 at 13.00.32.mp4

Some matumus clouds after this heavy shower pass east of Norwich at 2.30pm

Andrea spring sprung ages ago we’ve not had a below average month, leaves are open, flowers open, it’s very much a typical spring one day warm one day cold that is spring

Hola from Seville, have to pay money to see a sky like this these days! Lol. Hopefully I can bring the sun back with me when I'm home Saturday. In the mean time, hope you guys get some better spells of weather back home.

The coldies are suddenly getting excited again but I think they need to settle down. The GFS is going off on one in deep FI as it always does. Cooler next week but probably not far below average by day for most of us. The Met Office aren't predicting frosts for my area either. Any sunshine will be most welcome, even if it's cool in the shade. The ECM is showing a very different evolution with the high eventually being pushed over the UK, leading to a gradual warmup towards the end of next week.

We’ve been quite lucky this morning, it has been absolutely beautiful, steadily warming up from a -1.2 degrees frost around dawn, 1026mb and no wind. April mornings don’t come much better. A very reasonable looking few days ahead, through the weekend and into early next week, the 0z EPS chart for next Monday morning at day 4 is a cracker. The MSLP chart shows a high pressure of 1036mb over the UK and Ireland, part of a “bar” of higher pressure extending through to the Siberian Arctic. But make the most of it! Even with this setup, though it is nigh impossible for our high to be shifted east by anything off the Atlantic, it instead gets undermined by trough development to the east. There were good hints of this in the models yesterday, and though still a fair way off, the subtle hints of yesterday for day 10 have grown into clear suggestions today for day 9, the trough notably deeper and further west. This is the kind of evolution I love to see, not necessarily for the weather it will bring, but for the phenomenon itself. The 0z ECM op at days 6-10 shows the potential, the Scandinavian trough spawning a little low pressure system running down through the Norwegian Sea, joining with another more active one coming out of Greenland and sweeping down through Iceland… …the two merging and swivelling down into the UK and Ireland, with the cold air reasserting itself in the process. With the seasonal timing, probably not at all welcome, though I keep the faith that one of these years we’ll get this kind of thing a couple of months earlier and enjoy it a lot more. As it stands in the current modelling, it’s a spring ambush!

Managed to get a lovely walk today around Teggs Nose, just got home as the rain started 4pm. Wild and windy on the top, but lovely in the sun. Those black dots on the hillside are tiny pine trees. Getting out in the sun has really lifted my spirits.

Most well defined rain shaft I've witnessed in a long time.

A convective shower day so can't complain here.

My favourite type of weather at this time of year Arctic skies with vibrant colours and snow capped hills Photos from a drive up the A9 and minor roads this morning. Temperature from 3 to 7 c

GFS for next weekend? Yes please….

This appears to be quite a telling moment in the development of this spring. The Atlantic jet stream is heading very decisively north before fragmenting, here on the 0z ECM op for the next 10 days. The 0z ECM mean anomaly shows an impressive build in heights not only north through the Atlantic but also west into Greenland. The low pressure over the pole is lost as heights link up through the Arctic to the Siberian side. So the pattern is getting locked down. From the meridional 5-wave hemispheric pattern we’ve been looking at recently, we might have seen the next stage involving injection of some energy to incorporate a couple more waves, reduce the amplification and introduce a more mobile setup, but instead we’re seeing the opposite happen - the Atlantic build is so substantial that it serves to carve out one of the waves altogether. This is shown nicely by the 0z GEFS jet stream charts, the 5-wave starfish at day 5 being replaced by a 4-wave cross at day 10, the jet stream actually bending back on itself with a northeasterly component as it dives south towards the UK and Ireland. The surface flow will be very much in the northeast for several days, following the contour lines in the mean heights charts (below) from around day 5 onwards. So we’re moving towards a more static setup towards the end of the month, drier than it has been, but with suppressed temperatures. The stronger sunshine when on offer could make for some pleasant weather all the same, especially further west with shelter, though as discussed, the onshore breeze could be quite the dampener in eastern parts at times. One more thing, looking through to day 10, the upper trough remains uncomfortably close by to the east, even steadily working its way further west - so small systems beginning to run down the western flank of the trough, picking up moisture through the Norwegian Sea, might well become an added complication later on next week.

first time properly using camera and messing with settings

Please continue to use the reporting facility in the usual way. If you have a specific issue regarding moderation, or in general, that you would like to raise with the team, then please do so via here: https://www.netweather.tv/other/contact-us We greatly appreciate this feedback. Please remember that the moderators are keeping an eye on the shape of the forum across many threads. If you have reported a post and no action has been taken, it’s invariably because it has been reviewed and the decision was to leave the post as it is. For instance, at quieter times, when there is little possibility of the thread becoming derailed by a marginal post, some leeway is sometimes given in order to keep the threads moving along and as engaging as possible. A blustery and chilly morning here, showery with plenty of hail. Not great, but a 1030mb+ high building through the UK and Ireland by day 6 on the 0z ECM op, day 0-6 here, the rise in pressure and its convenient location now well inside the reliable and for once, coinciding with the weekend! Many a lawn will get mowed…. An impressive build in heights to the west and north. No doubt some fresh and chilly nights and mornings as it works its way in and settles down. Consistent signs of the high pulling back west thereafter, but for a fair few days, this is going to feel much, much better!

A fairly lively morning by the looks of things though the lightning missed my area by 20-30 miles this morning to my east. Rain seemed heavy, briefly woke up around the time the squall hit. Showers with hail mixed in following behind, classic post-frontal cold unstable air setup with the strong sunshine leading to some decent convection.

Quite remarkable given what we've seen recently - the GFS 12z keeps the Atlantic firmly blocked for the rest of the month, largely with high pressure in control. Generally near average to slightly on the chilly side temperature-wise though, especially further north. At the surface though it looks closer to average apart from the middle part of next week, probably due to warmer than average SSTs around the UK keeping things a bit milder than you'd otherwise expect. In extreme FI right at the two week mark, possibly a sign for a warm up, but very weak signal at this stage. The ECM ensemble meteograms also show the pattern quite clearly - a very strong signal for the winds to be coming from some sort of northerly direction for the foreseeable. So, the upshot is we've got what I think most of us were wishing for - a period of much drier weather on the way overall once we get the rain early next week out of the way. But generally staying quite chilly. Good weather for walking, but pack the T-shirts and shorts away for a bit longer. A sustained period of both warm and dry weather looks like it will have to wait until the very end of the month at the absolute earliest, or more likely early May.

The current regional rainfall total is ridiculous for April. We are not even halfway through April and we are already in the top 40 wettest Aprils on record for the region after just 11 days. April is one of the driest months of the year on average for our region.

Believe it or not, the period July 2023 - to now, is wetter than the whole of last year and last year was the 6th wettest year on record for the region...

What I think was the north sea storm approaching but just skirting past Kent.

I'm not quite sure I agree with this. No one is claiming an April 1981 redux but more that the signal for the next 7 to 10 days is looking fairly chilly and likely to feature some chilly nights, so it'll be below average, particularly in the east. Most posters know the strength of the sun is enough to get temperatures in double digits even with cool uppers. If you're in the far north and west it'll likely be better, but if we get cloudy NE/E winds with cold uppers then quite a bit of the country from the Midlands east could struggle with maximum temperatures if there's a lot of cloud and nagging sea breezes. No hyperbole going on imo.

Still managing to avoid the showers somehow which is what I wanted to keep it dry here, but they did look quite threatening to my east about half hour ago.

The mad hail reached here now. Looks like more might be incoming in the next hourish. 20240416_152147.mp4

A few heavy showers likely with hail (seen a report of hail from Nuneaton) passing just east of here, but my area has managed to stay dry so it's mostly a pleasant mid April afternoon so far. YouCut_20240416_130841037.mp4

Rain Lady aye it doesn’t matter which side of the GW debate you sit on, the conditions since early summer last year have been abysmal and we will all likely feel the effects in terms of substandard foods at higher prices. if this turns out to have been a freak event and conditions settle down into a lengthy period of good weather then some sort of normality will return and GW will suddenly become a positive thing but months of continuing wet weather has certainly played havoc with all aspects of life and I really feel for anyone trying to make a living in these conditions. Thankfully the dire conditions of yesterday should improve into something drier over the next few days with that rarest of beast, a high pressure system looking to set up shop around this part of the world but to me it looks like a drier but largely cloudy affair and, given the need for sunshine at this time of year, suppressed temperatures. I certainly cannot see us reaching for the sun cream and dusting the BBQ off anytime soon.

For the first time in over 3 months, yes that long, the models show high pressure rather than low pressure ruling the roost in the near term. We are not talking a major blocking high that will fend off frontal features, namely as it is forecast to position to our west at first allowing weak frontal features to flow around its NE flank, it then attempts to build over and through to our east but ultimately becomes thwarted by lower heights which look set to develop into a major euro trough. In these set ups which are very common in the latter half of Spring, chilly easterly and north east winds can bring cool damp showery airstreams to the east and south, whilst the north and west holds onto the driest sunniest weather. The only time in the year when the NW is on the 'fine' side of the NW- SE divide. More notable is the return to near average means, again something we haven't seen for any length of time since mid January.

Never seen hail forced to the surface so hard it set car alarms off and the hills are white over, what a noise it made.

Covering of snow on higher ground.

Yes. Lively out there as reported elsewhere. Belting squall swept through had the Terriers barking so it was get up time. Anyway here’s some Monday Museum Piece Machinery took yesterday out and about when reasonably pleasant from a neighbouring village.

Haven't posted in a while. Been busy at work & home. Can't believe we are already half way through April! I'm used to being disappointed with winters but this spring can only be descrided as disgusting. Have managed to Goldilocks around the country a bit in the last few weeks. Largs in late March. It was wild wind wise. Millport ferry in the background. Aberfeldy for my first bike ride of the year on Easter Sunday. Walked up the Birks to the stunning waterfall. Anstruther for a gig at Bread & Butter cafe on the 4th of April. Florence enjoying the vista this evening. Fingers crossed for a great summer!

Not to bad an afternoon and 104 quid win on national

Almost into May on the 00z and we’re still getting hit by relentless sub -5C air, and pretty much the only place relative to our latitude being hit by strings of constant low pressure. There’s no end to this is there? We can’t call a 3 day blip a pattern change. More like a relief whilst the AO trends negative again and gives us the worst possible outcome to it. Really starting to suffer now. It’s been autumn since last July, I was hoping for some spring warmth & sunshine. May is my favourite month.