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Wow what a night and morning!!!! Snow settling in plymouth for a time (gone now) and thick thick snow on the moor on the 28th March. To those who say it can't snow in March you are talking rubbish!!! It was perfect conditions a pivoting front cold air no wind. Started raining at 3c just watched the temperature continuously falling. At 2c some thick looking rain. At 1.5c wet snow. At 1c the biggest flakes I've ever seen. Temperature eventually fell to -0.3c. Amazing evaporative cooling event!21 points
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I knew there was going to be some convective activity today but I was under the impression that any storms that developed would be much further west, gutted I wasn't paying attention as I could easily have got to a decent location. Oh well, I did send the drone up for a brief look, not a bad looking storm for march YouCut_20240327_193142229.mp421 points
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Hats off to the models. They had picked up on the deepening trough in the nearby Atlantic on the run-up to Easter about a week ago. Not a great outcome in terms of the weather, but the UK and Ireland in the box seat for observing some industrious cyclogenesis over the next 4 days, here on the 0z ECM op. Interesting to see the two packets of low heights dropping out of northeast Canada, the second one really packing a punch and deepening the low pressure to around 965mb, as it spins around nearby giving us all a good wallop, centred to the northwest of Ireland by Thursday. The 0z ECM mean anomaly chart for day 5, Good Friday, shows the problem for the Easter holiday in the form of the trapped trough, held firmly in place for several days by a bank of heights pushing up over the western half of the Atlantic and the other bank stubbornly holding on over the eastern half of Europe. The western Atlantic heights look to ultimately prove the stronger, migrating north to Greenland by day 10, squeezing the trough to the north through the Norwegian Sea as the eastern European heights get slowly nudged into Russia, allowing the surface low to move through to Germany, bringing the UK and Ireland into a northeasterly flow. So looking like we’ll eventually get rid of the poorly timed unsettled spell for something a bit drier and chillier. Yes, hats off to the models but I’ll definitely be keeping my hat on. At this time of the year in particular, with the full range of weather that the spring can offer, the choice of hat is indeed a valuable indicator of how it’s going. Clearly far too early for the time being to venture to the apparel shown on the left, looks like I’ll be sticking with my reliably functional fisherman’s beanie for now. Have a great day.20 points
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No hail here but some lovely cloudscapes once again this afternoon, with a brief vibrant rainbow as the showers zoomed past. Distant shower: New showers approaching from west / south west, I think the second photo is facing more north though, part of that shower line still: Then the back end of those newer showers:16 points
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Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.16 points
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Currently heavy wet snow here in Plymouth. It's settling on cars and roof-top's. I live just 500m from the waterfront, 25m above sea level. Has just been reported there's been 2 serious RTAs in the last half hour. No gritting. Completely caught out with this! 20240327_220454.mp414 points
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I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels. Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.13 points
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Temperature down to freezing huge huge flakes best I've seen since 2018. Shame it will gone by morning! 20240327_214811_1.mp413 points
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Convective Outlook️ A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight. Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction. Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur. Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further. Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level forcing.13 points
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Today's selection: YouCut_20240323_134748863~2.mp4 Hail mixed in a few of them, but couldn't spot any mammatus clouds surprisngly; seen a few photos of some stunners in the south east elsewhere. Dropped to 4.5°C at 11:30 during one of the showers. Feels like winter when the sun dissappears in the clouds / showers!13 points
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Eagle Eye @Ben Sainsbury Seems in winter and spring we have these powerful lows come through with strong low and deep level shear but just not enough heating or moisture to give us any sufficient instability and then in summer we have good instability but never enough shear to do anything interesting, plus lapse rates become a bit iffy the later we go on. One of these years though we'll get lucky, hopefully its this year I think the key to tornado or just severe convective events in the UK is having a spanish plume or trough park itself off to the west/southwest that supplies warmth and moisture, then have a surface low develop that can enhance low level shear. Thats my thinking anyway. This is from tornado archives from the Birmingham 2005 tornado*12 points
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Worth just mentioning I think how remarkable (in a negative way, if you want dry weather!) recent weather patterns have been. Here is the NCEP reanalysis chart for March sea level pressure so far. We're over 10mb below the average. Absolutely ridiculous. At the centre of a giant blob of low. Next, all of February and March combined. Still 8mb below average. It genuinely isn't an exaggeration to say that we've been having probably the most unsettled weather in the entire Northern Hemisphere since the start of February. And since I have a feeling someone would ask for this one if I didn't post it, here is the sea level pressure since the start of July 2023. Again, the UK and Ireland amongst the most unsettled places in the entire Northern Hemisphere. This is why I find it hard to believe this pattern will go on much longer, having had a look at this. We can't keep on being target practice for the most unsettled conditions in the entire Northern Hemisphere. At some point, the larger scale pattern will change.11 points
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Been quite impressive just outside of Frome. Security Camera isn't really the best for catching lightning but can see the end of the fork just behind the tree as it disappates. If the Blitzortung is roughly accurate, that went down just about 2 miles south west of me.11 points
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Convective Outlook️ Showers forming along a shortwave trough behind an occluded front in the early afternoon are likely to cluster mainly in the southern Irish sea, the far SW of England, western Wales and southwestern Ireland. Some fairly strong buoyant air should help force up with lots of energy for these showers to come with sporadic lightning likely given the time of year and limited potential for the energy. The occluded front itself in the eastern parts through a lot of the day may bring a sporadic lightning strike or two. Strong surface energy and low-level winds in areas may aid some strong surface winds along with these showers as well. Small potential for a tornado in all of that. The deep-layer shear is strongest in the England and Wales parts of the slight risk, perhaps a small chance of a Supercell from that then. Hail is unlikely to be strong but the lift and cell mergers could force some kind of hail. That should clear NE wards with a few straggling showers before a lifting occluded front clears it in the evening. Especially showers may linger in Ireland.11 points
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Morning all, Ive not been online in a couple of weeks because I have been busy moving house! After 15 years of coastal living in the East Neuk and another 4 in Broughty Ferry I’m a coastie no longer. Now in Glenrothes. So a little wetter, colder in winter and warmer in summer. Less haar. And of course better snow prospects. While I wouldn’t consider Glenrothes a mecca for snow, it is compared to Pittenweem and I should be posting snow pics more regularly (my last were Feb 21!). I also have the Lomonds on my doorstep!11 points
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I don't know why some members bother posting on a weather forum at all?! They seem to sit in this thread waiting for a chance to be combative. It's gone beyond moaning or ramping for a select few.11 points
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feb1991blizzard Lovely. Too late now, looking for warmth. My old bones need to dry out and get warm.11 points
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Eleven years ago today when I still lived at Ballaleigh between Peel and Kirk Michael on the west of the Isle of Man we had an epic blizzard resulting in the scenes below. That is a full size motor home below my hound. The last snow drift on Sartfell which is only 1600 odd feet high lasted for 89 days.11 points
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Although I formerly closed my output to this thread 8 days ago, I thought it worthwhile coming back for a further update as the sea ice continues to 'misbehave' itself and will not fall in extent the way it should!!! I will start off by showing the Masie extent graph - As you can see, it is refusing to go down this year. In fact the last 3 days (after an increase of +108K Km2) have hovered just below my arbitrary 15M Km2 line (latest at 14,986K Km2). The last 3 days have in fact been rounded up to 15M |KM2, but I do not count those!! The recent events have now put a gap of 800.000 KM2 between it and its challenger (2022-23) for much of the season, and is way above average for the time of year. As a result of a recently released paper and post (video on the paper) on the changing and reducing AMOC effect and its predictions for its effects on Arctic ice and Northern Hemisphere weather in general (link below, and see the forum on Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures if the link does not work') - I thought I would show a few graphs of the regions it highlights as being prone to increases in view of a reduced inflow from the Atlantic (the AMOC effect) into the Arctic region - 1) Barents 2) Greenland Baltic 3) Bering - 4) SOO - As can be seen all have spent sometime above the 10 year highs within the last 4 weeks as the melt season started, and all are currently running very high. In fact the Barents is quite remarkable that it has grown by around 200K KM2 in the last 2weeks and it is this that has kept the record high extents ongoing. Even the Bering is still increasing, albeit from a lower base. I have included this chart from the ASIF to make a final point. One of the few years that has shown a similar effect was 2012 where the increases carried on for a further week, before starting to fall. Now the downside of all this is that 2012 went on to become the lowest year so far recorded, That however was caused by the very unusual weather and atmospheric situation which followed in July and August (the GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone) which destroyed a lot of the outlaying ice. So what will happen? Is this new paper relevant to the Arctic sea ice? I have assumed that, so far, most of the unscripted changes were due to the ENSO/PDO and perhaps the Hunga Tunga volcano, but perhaps we must also add in the changing AMOC. Do we in fact have a new driver in the race to record the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -a method of describing an ice free Arctic. Or perhaps this positive 'twist' might delay the event even further out in time. The other interesting thing about this is that potentially the weather we are seeing 'at home' is also being affected by the changes in the Arctic. Next episode?.... MIA10 points
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Tomorrow in the South-western areas looks to be quite interesting as @Eagle Eye pointed out. Locally could expect <1000 j/kg of Surface based Cape tomorrow in the South west and central areas along with a strongly sheared environment (0-1km SRH) that coincides with a curved hodograph. I would not be surprised that if storms matured in this environment especially in the south-west, we could see properly strong storms even later on into the evening hours tomorrow as seen on the Arome model. A tornado seems unlikely but could still happen if the ingredients line up.10 points
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Quiet in here... sensing many are wanting something drier, warmer and sunnier than currently on offer, hence lack of posts. From a weather enthusiast's perspective, the outlook is quite interesting, certainly not standard synoptic fayre, as offten the case hereon through to June, when cyclonic, northerly, easterly airstreams tend to show their hand more than any other part of the year. In the short term, all models are aligning the deep trough just to our west, throwing in bouts of wind and rain, cool in the north, rather mild further south with more of a S/SW flow but won't feel pleasant in the wind, rain and cloud. As we approach the 4 day easter period, more uncertainty finer details, but there continues to be a strong signal for heights to develop robustly to our north/north west, shunting the trough east after a slowly filling low, jet pulled south, chillier but drier air feeding in but perhaps too late to save most of the easter period. ECM showing a cold/snow lovers dream at least a month too late, long drawn easterlies from a cold source.. ah April and all its fickleness, the month that delivers perfect synoptics for winter cold fanatics, but all too late!10 points
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This thing has tracked for at least 120 miles now 12z GFS proximity soundings from 15z and 18z. Decent cape values, helping to maintain the cell although could well be starting to run out of instability as it tracks further north east. Im not surprised with the amount of lightning this things been producing, likely due to the steep lapse rates throughout the atmosphere. Interesting to note the bulk shear values, anything 30+ knots is good for supercells, not sure if this is a true supercell (unless anyone on here can confirm) but that level of bulk shear is certainly enough for updraft-downdraft separation though, could well be the reason this thing has been so long lived. Am surprised with the amount of hail this thing has been chucking out though. Really happy with today, not expecting anything here in Birmingham but still just nice to see proper convective weather return.9 points
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As already said, rain throughout the day and a generally depressing feel to things. Whether things will buck up for Easter is still to be decided but after the gloom of the last few months, it’s never been more wanted.9 points