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  1. Some indications emerging now of how the aftermath of the SSW might play out in terms of the Northern Hemisphere profile over the next couple of weeks. The 0z ECM ensemble mean / EPS charts show low pressure centred near the Low Countries at day 4. The Scandinavian heights are being squeezed northwest towards Greenland. Strong heights in this region appear to be a feature of the next couple of weeks. They are being held there at day 7 by a westward extension of the Siberian core of the PV to the north of Greenland, which reinvigorates the Greenland trough, bringing the western fringe of Europe to the eastern periphery of an Atlantic cyclonic influence. By day 10, this westward extension of the PV has developed further, forming a major trough down through eastern North America, a very cold spell looking to develop there, peaking at around day 12, while Europe remains quiet with temperatures near average. Indications of a change for Europe by day 15 though, as heights rise through the Atlantic and a Scandinavian trough becomes established, along with a surface low over the northern Mediterranean… …bringing signs, albeit at that distant range, of scope for a northerly surface flow, picked up on the EPS MSLP charts too, flowing from the Siberian Arctic, through the Norwegian Sea, to Western Europe. From what has proved at times to be a quite exasperating winter, though the Atlantic might at times dabble with us, it looks like we’ll move towards and pass the spring equinox with a largely blocked setup and one more tease for prospects of cold weather, this one perhaps being directed rather than being diverted by events in the stratosphere. Relatively quiet it almost certainly will be. As for something notably cold later in the month, well maybe, but let’s not hold our breath!
    30 points
  2. Best day of the year for photography yesterday for me. A few birds flying by the moon as well if you zoom in.
    25 points
  3. Gfs 00z showing some warmth wafting up from Spain for the end of March, this would be more than welcome couldn’t see anything too cold either, it seems to be shifting to Eastern Europe so hopefully a good sign of the ssw not negatively impacting us by delaying spring
    23 points
  4. Creating this thread as a last ditch attempt at some voodoo/fate tempting to see if there will be an increased chance of a pattern change! If you guys all remember, last year a thread was started in June I think, titled "Worryingly dry" & pretty much the moment that thread went up, our weather turned from nice, sunny & dry to endless rain almost non stop for now getting on 10 months in a row! I hope that after putting this thread up, we will get months of endless sunshine & mostly dry conditions for the foreseeable....until someone creates a new "Worryingly dry" thread of course.... Anyway, who here is fed up with the constant unrelenting rain & gloom??
    21 points
  5. Probably closer to hail here but superb capture whoever caught it!
    21 points
  6. I knew there was going to be some convective activity today but I was under the impression that any storms that developed would be much further west, gutted I wasn't paying attention as I could easily have got to a decent location. Oh well, I did send the drone up for a brief look, not a bad looking storm for march YouCut_20240327_193142229.mp4
    20 points
  7. Hats off to the models. They had picked up on the deepening trough in the nearby Atlantic on the run-up to Easter about a week ago. Not a great outcome in terms of the weather, but the UK and Ireland in the box seat for observing some industrious cyclogenesis over the next 4 days, here on the 0z ECM op. Interesting to see the two packets of low heights dropping out of northeast Canada, the second one really packing a punch and deepening the low pressure to around 965mb, as it spins around nearby giving us all a good wallop, centred to the northwest of Ireland by Thursday. The 0z ECM mean anomaly chart for day 5, Good Friday, shows the problem for the Easter holiday in the form of the trapped trough, held firmly in place for several days by a bank of heights pushing up over the western half of the Atlantic and the other bank stubbornly holding on over the eastern half of Europe. The western Atlantic heights look to ultimately prove the stronger, migrating north to Greenland by day 10, squeezing the trough to the north through the Norwegian Sea as the eastern European heights get slowly nudged into Russia, allowing the surface low to move through to Germany, bringing the UK and Ireland into a northeasterly flow. So looking like we’ll eventually get rid of the poorly timed unsettled spell for something a bit drier and chillier. Yes, hats off to the models but I’ll definitely be keeping my hat on. At this time of the year in particular, with the full range of weather that the spring can offer, the choice of hat is indeed a valuable indicator of how it’s going. Clearly far too early for the time being to venture to the apparel shown on the left, looks like I’ll be sticking with my reliably functional fisherman’s beanie for now. Have a great day.
    20 points
  8. Tbh I'm ready for warm and sunny weather now. Winter can wait until November
    20 points
  9. OMG I finally saw them! Right out the back of the house
    20 points
  10. To all the people saying no chance of southern uk snow now and upper air temperatures etc well here’s 2” of something this morning and still coming down (I’m at 150’ asl)
    20 points
  11. Wow what a night and morning!!!! Snow settling in plymouth for a time (gone now) and thick thick snow on the moor on the 28th March. To those who say it can't snow in March you are talking rubbish!!! It was perfect conditions a pivoting front cold air no wind. Started raining at 3c just watched the temperature continuously falling. At 2c some thick looking rain. At 1.5c wet snow. At 1c the biggest flakes I've ever seen. Temperature eventually fell to -0.3c. Amazing evaporative cooling event!
    19 points
  12. Anyone fancy an early season plume? Has been gaining interest in recent model runs. The GEM tries something at day 10.
    19 points
  13. Never mind the snow, I'm just looking for some hint of dry, or even average in the models. Something like the GFS 00z will have devastating effects for much of the country in terms of excessive rainfall I suspect. It looks like March 2023 all over again. It needs to stop raining now; this is becoming a really serious situation. Cold dry or mild dry, I don't care anymore... This is turning into a historically unprecedented spell of prolonged wet weather, more than 8 months already and counting. We desperately need a dry late spring and summer.
    19 points
  14. I just wondered if anyone else has encountered the same problem that I’m having. As some of you may know, I returned from Norway on Tuesday after an incredible fortnight. Everything there was so real: 2 metre lying snow, blizzards, crystal clear skies, northern lights, low temps etc. Now I find that every day I’m staring at the UK model outputs run after run and I just can’t get excited by it any more. I mean, it’s all so inconsequential. So ‘meh.’ There’s just nothing really about UK weather that’s interesting bar the very occasional moment like a deep storm or a heatwave. Winters are as bland as blaaaah-bland can be. I’m not knocking this country, at least I don’t think I am, but when you come back from somewhere where the weather is so real it just makes all this seem like nonsense. I really really hope this won’t get deleted because it is about the model outputs. Maybe it might help us all to stop having squabbles about this or that model run when, really, nothing happens here of any great consequence (any more). xx
    18 points
  15. Not seeing this phantom U.K. high coming to anything. The last 9 months have seen the U.K. become a beacon of low pressure, rain and gloom. The eps and geps have sacked off any hopes of a meaningful pressure rise. Even a split ssw and high amp mjo into the pacific doesn’t matter anymore. Im sure it’ll flip eventually, but this is one of my least favourite periods of weather. Always the promise of interesting, settled or cold weather but the reality has been utterly grim.
    18 points
  16. Things shaping up a little bit better now. Successive waves of building heights around the Azores are gaining a modicum of momentum in the models. As I alluded to a few days ago, there’s a practice run this coming weekend, here on the 0z EPS at day 4. It’s a shallow ridge, giving just a bit of a break before the flow from the southwest resumes, but a pleasant Sunday afternoon over England in particular with temperatures up to 15 degrees on the op. What is interesting from there is that though the Atlantic trough does make very slow eastward headway to be hanging down through the UK and Ireland by day 8, it weakens considerably against the European heights. This weakening of the trough means that the next wave of Azores heights is able to line up a better effort towards the weekend after next as the trough gets shunted east and squeezed out. This build looks to be getting its act together by around day 10. The 0z EPS / ECM mean shows a solid build in heights nicely oriented northeastwards in the direction of the UK and Ireland. So slowly gaining Azores momentum. What we’d perhaps expect this time of year. It’s not looking like sustained dry spells by any means, more like 2-3 day spells of drier, more settled weather between slow moving troughs, but I’m alright with it, as long as we get the breaks. When it rains, I can wear a coat. There’s always a lot of interest in the potential for wintry weather and at the other extreme, summer heatwaves. But spring, with its better light and resurgence of nature, though often under-rated, can be a lovely time of the year. To make the most of it, I’ll probably be posting a good deal less, so have a good few weeks.
    18 points
  17. Looking at the cfs, further into March looks rather blocked with high pressure in the ascendancy meaning benign conditions for the majority…then I’ll skip April and look forward to early May! …call me a traitor coldies… I’ve had enough of this abysmal / pathetic / rotten excuse for a so called winter season already!…bring on the sun! ️
    18 points
  18. The afternoons and early evenings are giving better and better value as spring gets underway. Temperatures very reasonable for central and southern England this afternoon in the southeasterly draw off the near continent, ahead of the approaching low, here on the 0z ECM op, better indeed than for most of France and Iberia, where temperatures are subdued to say the least… …and getting pegged back generally for the UK and Ireland by tomorrow as the low pressure passing through to the south slowly fills over southern UK and Ireland but pulls us around into an easterly flow. A slow but steady improvement during the week, as wafts of heights from the south, combine with the longer days and a southerly flow to deliver the vast majority double figure afternoon temperatures by Thursday, as a more organised belt of showery rain approaches from the west. Southeast Spain up into the twenties. In keeping with what we often see early on in the season, the gradual upward trend in afternoon temperatures is not emulated by the early morning temperatures, with frosts likely for many midweek. The Friday feature looks potentially interesting. Good levels of precipitable water down the spine so with this marked diurnal heating, scope for some early spring convection to enhance the belt of showers as it passes through. All very fitting for the second week of March, which will do nicely. Have a good one.
    18 points
  19. Don Shifting seasons? Not really it's more common than people think March 1970 Very Cold April 1971 Heavy Snow late on April 1973 NE snow at times March 1974 Snow first few days March 1975 Snowy Easter April 1978 Snow in places around 10th April 1979 Snow in the first week March 1980 some snow mid month April 1981 second half snowy and cold April 1983 snowy Easter March 1984 Cold and cloudy occasional wintry spells March & April 1986 Cold and Snowy at times March 1987 Cold heavy snow in places April 1989 Heavy snow in the South March 1995 Heavy snow in the Midlands March 1996 Easterly month snow in places April 2000 Snow in places Luton airport closed due to snow March 2001 Cold Easterly Month , snow in places March 2006 prolonged Easterlies mid month cold, snow around April 2008 Snow in the SE first week March 2013 Very Cold snow around April 2016 Heavy snowfall in the North late month March 2018 Cold with snow April 2021 Cold and dry
    18 points
  20. First day of spring in Ireland you couldn’t make it up!
    18 points
  21. There’s often comment on here regarding the reduced reliability of the models past a given timeframe. 5 days is often stated as the point at which models become unreliable. Studying the ECMWF web pages, it would appear to be a good deal more nuanced than this. They publish charts showing the “Continuous ranked probability skill scores (CRPSS) of forecasts of upper-air parameters by TIGGE centres”, with the following notes about the score being used: The Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) is a measure of how good forecasts are in matching observed outcomes. Where: CRPSS = 1 the forecast has perfect skill compared to climatology - forecast beneficial; CRPSS = 0 the forecast has no skill compared to climatology) - forecast has no benefit over climatology; CRPSS = a negative value the forecast is less accurate than climatology - forecast misleading. CRPSS is evaluated by calculating the function CRPSS = 1 − CRPSforecast / CRPSclimat where: Continuous Ranked Probability Score for the forecast (CRPSforecast) is calculated comparing the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) for the forecast against observations (or analyses) over a given period. Continuous Ranked Probability Score for climatology (CRPSclimat) is calculated comparing the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF) for the forecast against climatology over the same period. Hersbach, H., 2000: Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 559-570. Here’s the link to the paper that ECMWF cite: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/15/5/1520-0434_2000_015_0559_dotcrp_2_0_co_2.xml From the cited paper, excerpted: Instead of two options (event occurs or does not occur), the range of the parameter of interest is divided into more classes. In addition, the RPS contains a sense of distance of how far the forecast was found from reality. For a deterministic forecast for instance, the RPS is proportional to the number of classes by which the forecast missed the verifying analysis. Although the choice and number of classes may be prescribed by the specific application, the exact value of RPS will depend on this choice. It is possible to take the limit of an infinite number of classes, each with zero width. This leads to the concept of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS)…This CRPS has several appealing properties. First of all, it is sensitive to the entire permissible range of the parameter of interest. Second, its definition does not require…the introduction of a number of predefined classes, on which results may depend….Finally, for a deterministic forecast, the CRPS is equal to the mean absolute error (MAE) and, therefore, has a clear interpretation. This is useful because: 1. Rather than the (subjective) right or wrong, we have a graded measure of the extent of deviation from the realised outcome. 2. Any score above zero demonstrates some forecast skill over the assumption of climatology. Here are the CRPSS charts for T850 and 500hPa height for the Northern Hemisphere incorporating data for the winter just ended. At day 5, ECM attains a score of 0.62 for T850 and a score of 0.72 for 500hPa geopotential. The score for heights is higher at day 6 than that for T850s at day 5. The timeframe above the 0.5 CRPSS level (where the forecast matches the observed outcome in more instances than it doesn’t, compared to climatology) corresponds to between day 6 and 7 for T850 and between day 7 and 8 for heights. At day 10, the score is 0.28 for T850 and 0.33 for 500hPa height. Both those scores continue to offer reasonable “value” at day 10, though to be fair, at a level less than half the value offered at day 5. By day 15, the score is around 0.12 for T850 and near 0.15 for 500hPa height, much lower, but still above zero so exhibiting some skill when compared to just assuming climatological norms. The ECMWF appears to put some store in the 0.25 or 25% level, as this is what they use to illustrate the improvement in skill over the last 25 years. This graph is great. It shows the lead time in days before the score drops to 25% and is for T850. The model has the same level of skill at day 10 in 2024 than it did at 5.5 days in 1998. Noticeable too that winter T850s appear to be handled better than summer ones, probably due to the winter PV, with typically fewer meridional episodes and less dramatic fluctuations in the winter as a result. In summary, in our parlance, the models are more “reliable” for longer for predicting heights than they are T850s. For heights, these are typically of sound merit all the way out towards forecast day 8. The reliability drops off steadily from day 0, there is no sudden drop at any point and the forecasts maintain some predictive value when compared with climatological expectations all the way through to day 15, which is presumably why this timeframe is catered for in the outputs. Lastly, and perhaps most excitingly, the models appear to be better now at day 10 than they were 25 years ago at day 6. This all fits very nicely with the general narrative surrounding their use here in the model thread.
    17 points
  22. Here at day 5 on the 12z GEFS, as we’ve seen several times during the last few months, the hemispheric profile achieves a striking north-south orientation of heights, the PV with its core over Siberia coordinating a Scandinavian trough, which combined with cross-polar heights at the merging of Alaskan and Atlantic ridges, delivers us a handsome northerly flow. But as during the winter, it’s brief. The pattern has no hold. By day 10, the PV relaxes, the Siberian core leaks out west again towards northern Greenland, so the pattern falls lateral again and the reinforcement of the Greenland trough drops a low pressure southeast out of Greenland. The Alaskan heights are squeezed out, and there is a complete reversal over the Atlantic - with a 40+ dam drop in heights over 5 days to the west of the UK and Ireland, we’ve swiftly lost the Atlantic ridge and we’re back into an Atlantic cyclonic pattern heading into Easter. And as during the winter, once it’s set up, this pattern is not brief. By day 15, there are heights to the north but the PV is lateral, and still very much on our side of the pole, preventing a full build, so instead, we get a southerly tracking jet stream brewing up systems carrying a lot of moisture running up from the southwest, through the corridor paradoxically being held in place by the northern heights. It’s as we were then, seemingly too far south for the northern heights to bring us blocked cold, and too far north for the southern heights to send us a proper block, so we get a fleeting Atlantic ridge that can’t form a robust block with the heights to the north, because they themselves lack sufficient traction, followed by the PV and shallow heights to their south then going lateral and serving us up another extended run off the Atlantic. Fair enough to point out that is what we would expect for a temperate Atlantic climate but the unrelenting nature of never more than a few days with any other option on the table, at the moment at least, seems quite grimly exceptional.
    17 points
  23. Hi everyone, this is my first ever post on netweather. I love reading your posts by the. Way. Loving the GFS 0Z Op showing first signs of the SSW effect - actually having one in FI :
    17 points
  24. Last night's Aurora (for those who missed it) as seen from the upper Goyt Valley at around 8.30pm, I thought it was going to be a bust given there was a pesky patch of cloud that seemed to linger off to the north for quite a while, but thankfully it shifted to the NorthEast and allowed clear-skies just as the Aurora began to kick-off.
    17 points
  25. Jordan S hope you get some snow. Nice fall today across a fair bit of Ireland. Here in Dublin quite a bit !!
    17 points
  26. Today was one of those incredibly rare magical moments when you draw the curtains on a normal day (expecting yet more rain) only to find everything is bright white. My 8 year daughter has been waiting all winter for some snow, and then this happens at the end of March! She actually cried with joy.
    16 points
  27. No hail here but some lovely cloudscapes once again this afternoon, with a brief vibrant rainbow as the showers zoomed past. Distant shower: New showers approaching from west / south west, I think the second photo is facing more north though, part of that shower line still: Then the back end of those newer showers:
    16 points
  28. Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.
    16 points
  29. Some eye candy for those of us who are sun and warmth starved on the latest gfs, hopefully our luck is about to change in April, certainly deserve it.
    16 points
  30. A spell of drier, more High Pressured dominated weather would be very welcome to be honest, as it seems the Atlantic Lows just want to keep invading the scene. Even though the models are picking up a chillier Polar Maritime/Arctic Maritime flow coming in between the North-West and North during, and throughout, the weekend, it should bring some brighter weather conditions with it, especially towards Eastern areas of the UK. (However, showers could become a bit more concentrated towards Eastern parts on Sunday with the possibility of the flow turning more North-North-Westerly to Northerly). So, showers would be the feature of this setup along with the sunny spells. And with the strong March sunshine it could fuel some quite beefy showers at times. Wintry for the hills and possibility to some lower levels, too, particularly during Saturday, as models in various forms, especially the GFS, show a strip of -5/-6*C 850 hPa temperatures filtering East through parts of the UK from the Northern Atlantic: So showers of rain, sleet, graupel and particularly over high ground/hills, snow, between Friday (perhaps with some morning rain lingering for a time over Central and/or South-Eastern/Eastern areas beforehand on Friday) and Sunday. Again can imagine there would be some decent sunny spells between at times, and away from the chilly wind, it could feel reasonably pleasant/Spring-like in the sunshine. (Although you may still need to wrap up, somewhat, particularly those exposed to the winds over over Western/North-Western areas and over high ground ) (Formerly DiagonalRedLine)
    16 points
  31. Excellent Taking all the following points and composites in the above post we are seeing the manner in which the upcoming pattern shifts will transpire. Starting at these focal points here we see as expected an above average temperature setup extending from Africa through parts of Europe with significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels perhaps some temperature records. Here's the Rossby Wave Break Event with the high pressure and dual cut off lows As the High ridges into the UK and Ireland this brings a period of significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels, perhaps enough for some temperature records at these levels Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift. As a system which began as the troughing across Canada across the Great Lakes and currently into the Canadian Maritimes per MJO feedback as discussed, begins to move over the Atlantic high this will bring stormy winds particularly toward the Faroe Islands with an accompanying strong Jet Streak and as this system continues Eastward these stronger winds will begin to extend into the UK During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March. As thickness levels lower and with the 528 dam and below air being present across the UK and Ireland this will cause precip to turn wintry with a risk of snow for all regions of the UK and Ireland ie Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England with most across higher elevations though mixing even to low levels cannot be discounted, probably a setup where West and Northwest Scotland does well for snowfall. Similar to the snowfall risk areas the frost risk will be most prominent further Northwest and North though all areas of the UK and Ireland seeing below average temperatures at surface and upper levels. This initial storm system will produce significant snow events across Iceland and Norway. As this system descends it will bring a new significant snow event for the Alps.. Swiss Alps especially and a heightened risk of a heavy precip event into Slovenia which could be rain and or snow so a risk of flash flooding needs considering, these events are from the 23rd through 26th. In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive. So we're seeing a below average temperature setup for week 4 of March This is also ongoing feedback from the IOBW warm phase which supports a colder setup during March. Also factoring in the overall season of stratospheric developments including multiple stratospheric warming events which I'd like to revisit my comments here This was a significant SSW event with a significant reversal of zonal winds 10hpa values exceeding -20 m/s Plus a reversal at 50hpa Given recent and current MJO progression paired onto weak vortex events again further excellent and expected correlation Impressive cold setup this with multiple minus double digit temperatures in Iceland and Scandinavia which are of particular note. Cheers KW
    16 points
  32. Another good day including some cool mammatus..
    16 points
  33. The end to another week marked by another cold trough dropping down from the north over the UK and Ireland, 12z GFS op, 0-78h. These are the 500mb temperature and heights charts. Nice to look at. Last week’s colder snap flattered to deceive in many ways. The impressive looking 528 dam thicknesses only delivered for the tops. I must admit that I saw more scope in it for snow than transpired. This one will perhaps prove more interesting in the event as there is a low pressure system with its own circulation that forms at the base of the trough. The trajectory of arrival is more sharply NW-SE so there is slightly colder air wrapped up in it, with heights as low as 512-520 gpm, and there is also more organised precipitation. This time there is a keen ridge building behind the low, which serves to cut it off from the trough at least for a while, until it merges west with the base of the next incarnation of the Greenland longwave. The models have struggled all week with the rate at which the low gets warmed out, with a trend over the last few days toward keeping it that bit colder for longer. @Ali1977 has been picking up on this firming up over the last few days. In any case, there’s certainly plenty of weather around on Friday into Saturday in particular, at 36-78h, as the low pivots its way through Ireland and the UK and spins out a secondary system to France. It’s made more interesting by the system arriving during nighttime hours and the relatively slack circulation as it grinds to a halt possibly aiding some evaporative cooling at times with the heavy and sustained precipitation, so maybe the first couple of days of spring this year might well have a decidedly wintry feel. Very likely my last post of the winter! I have greatly enjoyed it, though it seems that the models we study are possibly on as steep a learning curve as we are.
    16 points
  34. I would not like to be on The Yorkshire coast this weekend with winds coming off The North Sea. Will feel even colder next week. There is a heck of a lot of snow to melt and transfer into the North Sea from Scandinavia over the coming weeks. Any winds originating from the East will make Eastern parts feel particularly cold. Models showing that now. Even today with coldest I have ever felt in my lifetime was playing cricket at Wetwang ( Yorkshire wolds ) in early April wearing 3 sweaters. Currently living at 1340m in the Austrian Alps and positively mild in comparison to ! Wetwang , frozen in time. Great place and happy memories. C
    15 points
  35. 12z GEFS and ECM op - models beginning to look a bit crabby as early as day 4.
    15 points
  36. A big battle ensuing on the 0z ECM op through to day 10 with possibly the best example of Atlantic trough disruption that we have seen through these colder months. The first cut-off is rescued at day 2 as it joins the Greenland trough, but the reformed trough is sent sharply into reverse, pushed west, through to day 4 or 5, as heights build through Scandinavia, on their migration west to Iceland. The second cut-off is paid in instalments between day 6 and 8, and this is firmly forced southeast around the southern flank of the heights. The steady reappearance of some very cold air over Scandinavia, extending southwestwards is intriguing to say the least. The ensemble mean shows a similar trend, ending up with positive heights extending from Scandinavia deep into Canada. The very strong heights anomalies (in black) over Scandinavia during the next few days is a particularly notable signal. It’s looking like developing into proper Northern blocking across the entire Atlantic sector. Some interesting discussions about the value of ensemble mean charts. I agree that they’re not offering a likely solution in themselves, but then neither for that matter, does the op or any of the individual ensemble members past day 6 or 7. The clusters are useful, but there we are still working with a representation of the cluster and at a relative probability in terms of the whole ensemble that can at times be quite modest. What the ensemble mean does give is an idea of the general direction of travel of the whole pack for that particular timeframe. When, like with the above, this is in broad agreement with the op, this provides support for the general evolution being modelled, in this case a quite striking trough disruption at the hands of impressive and sustained heights to the north, which is undeniably of value.
    15 points
  37. Can the MOD thread be any more unbearable I can't believe people are excited for chilly easterly winds and cold rain. Haven't we suffered enough this winter!!
    15 points
  38. Currently heavy wet snow here in Plymouth. It's settling on cars and roof-top's. I live just 500m from the waterfront, 25m above sea level. Has just been reported there's been 2 serious RTAs in the last half hour. No gritting. Completely caught out with this! 20240327_220454.mp4
    14 points
  39. Decent convective skies this afternoon. Rain/hail curtains and squally winds.
    14 points
  40. Now that would be special for time of year.
    14 points
  41. Few snaps and a vid of Les Menuires this week. All in all, good conditions with wee top ups of fresh. Should be two crackin bluebird days in the bag (next is the morn). Past the half way mark time wise, and well that makes you think about heading hame to Scotland. Not sad though, as that's where the heart is... Vid is of Mont Blanc, then swinging round to Val Thorens. Taken from the top of Pointe de la Masse. Fuel stops are good (as per photo), but no mac and cheese or Scotch pie like you get at Scottish ski centres sadly! 20240304_105959.mp4
    14 points
  42. GEM 12z is up for a full on March cold spell by day 10: Incoming! I’ve been watching this possibility for a couple of days now, it’s been there on the ECM clusters, not favourite, but it is in the mix, and now on this GEM op run.
    14 points
  43. Pretty convinced this is rotating i just dont know ho to report it to torro
    13 points
  44. I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels. Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.
    13 points
  45. Temperature down to freezing huge huge flakes best I've seen since 2018. Shame it will gone by morning! 20240327_214811_1.mp4
    13 points
  46. A stunning afternoon for a walk at the edge of the military training area near Warminster. Lots of sunshine, a fresh wind and spectacular storm clouds. Also a radar grab to show the shower producing the hail streaks.
    13 points
  47. Today's selection: YouCut_20240323_134748863~2.mp4 Hail mixed in a few of them, but couldn't spot any mammatus clouds surprisngly; seen a few photos of some stunners in the south east elsewhere. Dropped to 4.5°C at 11:30 during one of the showers. Feels like winter when the sun dissappears in the clouds / showers!
    13 points
  48. My view 10 20240320_170238.mp4 mins ago on the M5 in Worcester, now in the heavy rain heading north. What a cloud formation.
    13 points
  49. To all the moaning mad thread ‘we wont get snow now’ brigade only highest hills etc etc well south Glos at 150’ asl it’s snowing nicely, approx 2” very nice suprise for me this morning and its my birthday weekend yessssss
    13 points
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