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Showing content with the highest reputation since 25/12/20 in Posts

  1. 3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a fe
    109 points
  2. Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another correction westward on the frontal system moving into The British Isles on Saturday. Perhaps not as advanced as shown on the models or UKMO fax. So a slowing up or disruption of the trough could give a more prolonged spell of snow. The outer parameter of the snow computer flag up up the East of England with a moderate fall in places , especially East Anglia. That would indicate a wedge of cold still v
    81 points
  3. Morning Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it... However they are coming.... Soon...
    81 points
  4. I have had a good look at the strat charts this morning and there appears to be a lot of guesswork as to how the SSW may affect the trop. All indications to me are that we have a good propagating event already in the early days after the SSW. One would expect normally a flushing down of westerly winds to the trop and therefore an increase in a flatter trop pattern for a while. But to me this is just not happening. This is the picture as of yesterday: We have the weakened residual positive u winds at the top to middle strat about to be crushed by the developing SSW. What is of
    79 points
  5. Good Afternoon - The GFS was never known as a 'high top' model - Its strat resolution was not in the same league as say Gloesea etc, this means even after upgrades at best its resolution through all the layers is course- With that come lack of clarity & distorted blobs of energy. > If we examine the past week or so where we morph into a QTR type unusual position models like the GFS / NAVGEM / ICON all become eratic, performance drops & accuracy deteriorates quickly after say 120 - those random blobs of energy suddenly become super mild outcomes or super snowstorms (
    79 points
  6. The ongoing strength of the HP anomaly over Kara/Ural region is notable. And still EPS is flagging an ongoing North Pacific / Aleutian Low setup. Can’t remember seeing such a sustained pattern like this, though admittedly my serious scanning of winter weather models is probably only just hitting 10 years or so - pretty small sample really. However - for that 10 year period this is a significant, ongoing point of stress for the vortex. As part of that picture there is quite a lot of noise from across the pond regarding the strength of the current Aleutian Low spinning along on a subs
    78 points
  7. A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some interesting discussion if the snow goggle biases were put away for a moment. 🙂 This winter has seen a much greater disconnect of the atmosphere to the La Nina base state than anticipated. Intense seasonal bias confirmation processes customarily disguise this, but if one is prepared to stay detached from that, it has been something of a surprise to the neutral diagnostic elements enthusiast.
    77 points
  8. Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to incredible lightheadedness, I even managed to collapse and knock myself out on one occasion, ridiculously cold all the time, completely lost my appetite for over a week, in bed for 23 hours a day, unbelievably painful muscle aches and body tenderness. To put it into perspective, I stopped looking at the charts and started wishing for warming weather for goodness sake! 😳😁 Very much wishing @Scot
    76 points
  9. I laughed when @Scott Ingham said last week that this up-coming spell could be potentially "historic" in terms of length of below average temperatures.. I'm not laughing anymore. The GH block is well supported within the teleconnections, I feel the GFS might be "slightly" too progressive with the speed it builds it in, but not by much. The GEFS mean is a thing of absolute beauty and more importantly, is well supported within the EPS clusters.
    70 points
  10. Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not every single cold spell is going to be the next BFTE or 2010. The pattern looks great going forward. The Det runs will continue to chop and change, and whining about 850hPa temperatures 10 days away is a complete & utter waste of time.
    67 points
  11. I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a number of people. So where are we heading for January. Well that is a difficult one. We have seen some wonderful Synoptics without the matching 850’s so far. I am sure that if they had been a couple of degrees lower we would already be talking about an historic spell. The lower strat is still completely broken and that is likely to remain for at least a couple of weeks. So expect a continua
    67 points
  12. Afternoon all - I’m a bit late to the party today....though not in the same league as @Scott Ingham who has pulled an all nighter and seems still be be going. As others have said - get to bed man! Interesting data this morning - a little wobble from GFS overnight but nothing out of the ordinary in that regard. The models are beginning to pick up on change data post New Year and it will widen the range of solutions. So where are we? In no particular order... Momentum products show that we are in the downward slope of the most recent phase. Frictional torque has topped out and is
    67 points
  13. I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caught two different variants. Ive had one person tell me they think its long covid and 3 say re-infection as the temperature and loss of taste dont come back with long covid. As for my mum shes on a ventillator and stable and so while not great shes in a position for the symptoms to ease so that is great news. Apologies for everyone thats wished me well i havnt replied to every message
    65 points
  14. Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario. And sure enough I just looked and the Atlantic amplification is there towards Greenland. Back in 2010, we knew the destination, but not the route there. I’m beginning to get that same nostalgic feeling again.......
    64 points
  15. I can’t believe I’ve read 5 pages of weather there will be a Greenland high or not. With the propagation of the SSW, we have certainly seen an early divergence in the trop modelling. And this we have seen many times before has led one or more models down a garden path. Initially it looks that any Greenland high in the next ten days is unlikely, but with a resurgence of negative winds at the top of the strat, I wouldn’t discount this for too long. In a superstitious way, I wouldn’t rule it out either. The number of times I have seen Steve rule a scenario out and then see the models re
    63 points
  16. Ok folks a bit of an update from the team over here. Looks like mid -week some severe cold to develop over Central Europe and especially to the NE in Scandi land. The feeling is that with-in the time span 96h-144t will now be crucial as to where the British Isles is heading ( snow and freezing temps or mild and damp ). As early as Wednesday a leading snow edge front will try and move through but its progress likely to be slow. The snow computer has halted this close to Eastern Britain. So overall, a strong backing of the ECM run from this morning which has the intensifying cold to the NE winn
    63 points
  17. I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t. Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a two pronged attack to affect the British Isles during the first third of January. Firstly ,pressure falls in Biscay expected to transfer towards Low Countries with increasing tightening of the isobar flow ( easterly component ) especially for Southern England. Secondly, later in the period pressure falls from the North with a NEly becoming more widespread. The snow computer outer parameter results
    63 points
  18. The cold is coming. Snow chances on and off now for the foreseeable, and this is everything we could have hoped for 10 days ago. This strat chart represents the key to the history books - whether we end up with a spell that will be remembered as a good one, or whether we translate good conditions into great ones. There have been the usual scattering of gloomy comments over the last few days asking why uppers of -4 have been attracting such interest, and boldly proclaiming that nothing remarkable is happening. Knowledge is power. The strat holds the key to sustained cold. Be under no illus
    63 points
  19. Now then .... Be prepared for some awsome ENS over the next few days. If Screaming Easterlies are your thing... Vertical ridging in the atlantic - ( loop ) which screams southwards through Scandi > classic classic easterly
    63 points
  20. Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet! I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.
    62 points
  21. Looking at the Euro4 im not convinced GFS is right even at +48! Note the N,lys over the far N of Scotland and Shetland islands. Ridge of high pressure extending further S in this model compared to others.
    61 points
  22. LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. Oh,..... and I forecast the SSW before him and got the date closer. So do a bit of research first, thank you.
    61 points
  23. Happy New Year Weather followers around Europe.Enjoying cold spell?Hopefully more Snow on the way soon.I had to take Serious action and hit High Ground AS no Snow below 900m here but boy above that IT was a joy.This part of Slovakia is the most unspoiled part of Europe for sure as hardly anyone was around.Almost I feel I got it All for myself and my dog Molly of course😀 VID_20210101_114447.mp4
    59 points
  24. Ultimately cold last third of the month. Significantly so.
    58 points
  25. Afternoon.... You can sense the excitement building in here... This cold spell will have many layers however the theme of cold becoming colder & colder > with the possibility of an even colder layer to come ( day 10 > ) The ensembles can be layered in the same way > 06z displays this nicely... So as we head through this week > as the cold air becomes established & milder layers of the boundry layer mix out & rain / sleet is replaced by sleet / snow....
    58 points
  26. Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very definitely seeing the impact of the SSW. Go check the Berlin charts. 3. What changed in terms of the historic January possibility was the vortex did not split. We are now on the cusp of experiencing about the best impact from a displaced pattern that we can get. Vortex is primarily over Asia and not Canada or the Atlantic, and we have enough displacement to allow an arctic high to bed in. Had the
    57 points
  27. There is an old adage on the Netweather forums.... ”you only know the train is coming, when you can actually see the train” this stems from times looking at weeks of zonality trying to spot the change to an easterly... Right now, believe it or not, we have actually boarded the train. However, the train is one of the two carriage ones that’s a bit rickety, we are all on board but it’s not to everyone’s liking. Some are in the nice seats and some are standing only and this is causing a bit of bickering. But we are on the train nonetheless. No doubt we are heading to our destinati
    57 points
  28. Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such weak westerly winds, but once again we see the potency of Atlantic influence. Never ever to be underestimated. The vortex splits in the mid strat and as we knew was possible one daughter vortex lands in the Atlantic. The hope had been it might be further west...but no.... and lower down on the boundary the Atlantic ridge is flattened by the pressure. But note the troughing
    56 points
  29. All good for a long range forecast, but once we get the min 14 day reversal on top of a trop pattern that has become very amplified then these sorts of factors mean little. The SSW will override traditional signals substantially, and it really won’t matter a jot what phase the MJO is in or whether the QBO is westerly or not. If we end up with a reverse flow then actually we want a nice flat continental flow! The factors you list dictate the extent to which blocking can form and from there potentially impact the vortex. Low sea ice has helped give us a very important semi permanent Kara ridge,
    56 points
  30. Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic paths to upgrade potential, is always a good scenario at the range we're tracking at this point. I like the fact it's around 20th-25th Jan also, one of the most likely times from climatology for long duration cold to set in. Almost every significantly cold February had its origins in a gradually decreasing temperature trend in late January, not always hitting very severe levels until near the end o
    55 points
  31. I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect. I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @
    55 points
  32. If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in a semi scientific grownups arena yeah?
    55 points
  33. Ok, I have just been picking the thoughts of the team over here. Is this cold Arctic flow coming? I ask Yes 60/40 probable. Complications in getting there ? Plenty is the answer. The problems regarding swings in the models and timing to access real cold is partly due to uncertainty in the near time. Their own thoughts now indicate that troughing over The British Isles may start to become more acute over the coming days caused by stalling of weather systems/ fronts against the cold block just to the east. Possible heading for some kind of undercut development. Changes by the hour rather than
    54 points
  34. I am really annoyed about UKMO for couple of days now.It just refuses to drop the trough south at 96h. Basically not a single member of EPS or GEFS have this scenario.And then comes Icon 6Z and follows UKMO. If All those frigid EC runs X6 in a row fail to materialize for Central Europe I give Up on Weather models. Today I took my dog to local mountains to altitude of 1291m. A short video of what awaited me there,wait for it after 1 minute❤️ Video_20210109125947907_by_Filmigo.mp4
    54 points
  35. Ok, I have an update from the team over here with specifics for the UK. Taking out any equation as regards to SSW in the conversation , I have a very interesting view on the models and forecast charts for the period 144t -240. Looks like a big difference now to evolve in that period between GFS and the UKMO . In their own view they still expect lower heights over Europe and a NEly flow into the British Isles with increasing snowfall for many,especially the Eastern side of Britain. This theory based on the East Atlantic high to enforce amplification towards the East Greenland Sea and to hold. F
    54 points
  36. Firstly @Griff sorry to hear that and I hope the ECMWF has a little something in it to help cheer you up. Onto less important things (and I think it is worth everyone keeping that in mind in the context of the wider world right now, it's just a bit of weather!) - if you remember back to my post from yesterday (which referenced posts from before then - meta or narcissistic, you decide), there's a reason I had referenced the 15th as a check in date for hopefully clearer resolution of the medium term prognosis. This is the day, and has been roughly forecast to be the day for some time
    53 points
  37. We would much rather people use the ignore facility than negatively respond to posts they don't like, for sure. But I will add, we have absolutely no plans to put an age limit on this or any threads on this site. I joined this site when I was 15, posting on here helped nurture my interest in meteorology. That then lead to a degree in meteorology, and now I'm employed as a meteorologist and have been for the last 6 years. There will be numerous other young people on this forum who could potentially follow that path, and posting on here will continue to nurture that interest. So, yes,
    53 points
  38. Will be interesting to see the ECM strat charts tomorrow. I did expect this kind of amplification slightly earlier though. Certainly keeps those who think winter is finished biting their nails, whilst mine grow longer.
    53 points
  39. Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement parts of the country have seen far more snow than in any recent winter. Scotland has seen plenty as have parts of Northern England. The displacement has produced a consistent positive pressure anomaly to our NW but it has been positioned too far west to give us the blocking we need to get low pressure disrupting sufficiently on a NW/SE axis....but even given that we have seen plenty of cold. 3 mil
    52 points
  40. Ladies n gents I offer you the eps 0Oz-Atlantic domination charts 🙄😂😂. Get real abc.. .. it’s as blocked as a fat birds toilet!!.. with nigh in zilch of a mobile infer.. we are going into winter like we haven’t for what seems an age!!!! @eps ooz ..cut the comedy.. I’m be-reffed of ribs 🙄🙄😂@atlantic domination.. the Atlantic is in tier [email protected] lockdown .. and I’m sure some ya should also be 🙄🙄🙄 (obviously banter)x
    52 points
  41. Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however * Start of Jan * Very low heights * Slack continental flow * Cold uppers * Poss snow cover = Ice days... A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!! ( control 204 )
    52 points
  42. Lol. Perhaps I better not post for a few days. But I haven’t seen such a strong signal for proper cold in a long while. We have strat, a small amount of tropical feedback reinforcing an excellent underlying early winter pattern. The solar cycle of early ascending phase seems to reinforce these blocking patterns too. Why? I’m unsure of. But all in all, let’s stay calm and see how this unfolds, because we have already experienced fantastic synoptic output this winter for very little surface gain. Unless you have altitude and distance away from coastal modification on your side. But that ma
    51 points
  43. Way hay folks.. I've been waiting since the Winter of 2017/18 for snow and finally today I got it...a nice covering,with perhaps another risk tonight. A great Ecm Mean again,and some cracking GFS 6Z ens also..we looked locked into a cold pattern for sure. I said I would run naked through through the snow if it came...here goes..🤣
    51 points
  44. Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get myself back into the groove again. Stay safe guys, the sooner the country gets vaccinated the better!
    50 points
  45. Morning Looking at the 24 hour trends the chances of that northerly rapidly diminishing to be replaced from the ever deepening cold in the East...
    50 points
  46. This post paints a rather different picture to what they are actually suggesting. Any posters feeling instantly glum - go read what both are saying on twitter. Marco's post is particularly interesting in terms of what he doesnt say...and Matt is musing over impacts of the vortex displacement while making it very clear that there is still a disconnect between strat and trop. He is certainly not touting a westerly burst of any significance. Remember that ECM is processing significantly more strat data than gfs. As the strat breakup occurs then ECM has to be the model of choice. All those wi
    50 points
  47. Decent mean now 186 - Cant be sniffed out to be fair Very Very rare a mean at 186 is -6c at 186 & -8c for Scotland... Irrespective of whether we get a day or so of less condusive uppers the whole evolution is very very special....
    50 points
  48. I’ve been watching every model run over the Christmas period and no major changes. Firstly, synoptically, the 500hPa pattern has always looked better than the 850,s it brought with it. Snow was always going to be marginal, and I think that most members realised that even this isn’t armageddon territory, there is still risk of seeing white stuff falling out of the sky in the coming days. In my eyes, the start of the cold spell was always that. The starter. And it is the main course that follows this starter that I will patiently await. Whether or not this arrives before the forecast SSW re
    50 points
  49. Intetesting low pressure system on 00z EC moving east across the south on Wednesday. GFS has the low, but tracks it SE much further south into France. I suspect, then, that EC maybe too far north track, as is usually the case it seems, but one to watch of many disturbances over the coming days that could bring snow. Another disturbance dropping south New Year's Eve too. Feel like I need to pinch myself that this not all a dream that we could actually be looking down the barrel of a long protracted cold spell, in January, that gets colder and colder. And we've not even see
    49 points
  50. Morning - UKMO / ECM / EPS all in good agreement- Nice & cold, with a theme of getting to the 'very cold' stage <3c maxima. Snowy surprises to come as well. Starting with Monday.
    49 points
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