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Showing content with the highest reputation since 23/03/19 in Posts

  1. 17 points
    Christ alive, its the UK not death valley. We'll have months and months of rain to endure from late July until next May. Chill.
  2. 17 points
    Hi James - a thoughtful summary and deserves a response I think in the context of seasonal wavelength changes in addition to the transition period of the stratosphere to its "summer" position there is bound to be flips in patterns when wind-flow patterns undergo sequences of retractions and then forward momentum once more as we have been seeing this Spring - and is quite common to see in many Springs, notwithstanding the unprecedented changes in climate that inevitably will amplify and/or distort responses. But the physical responses of changes in wind-flow patterns and the torque mechanisms that drive these changes remain constant nonetheless and continue to play an important role in attempting to decipher pattern changes. In that respect its another reminder that its not the ENSO base state per se that matters in terms of direct correlation, but the relationship that the atmosphere adopts to it in terms of weather pattern adjustments (in tandem with all the factors between the seasonal changes between tropical and polar stratospheres and also of course how the seasons impact sea ice at such pivotal times of switch. What of those wind-flows? We can see from the Hovmollers plot that since the first few days of the month we have seen a drop in a long period of westerly wind bursts across the Western Pacific towards the dateline, as part of a response to tropical convection patterns having finally weakened through March following a very long active period since November. With an imminent trade wind burst in the Eastern Pacific as can be seen shaded blue on the plot this represents a peaking of something of a "lull" phase in this Nino phase - which is not unusual in any ENSO cycle. The effect of greater easterly trade wind inertia or reduction of Nino westerly's c/o eastward progressing tropical convection is to create a deceleration of wind-flows upstream in the Pacific and a consequential fall in angular momentum tendency Initially this serves to weaken the Jetstream heading downstream across the Atlantic, and hence has helped to promote and preserve the downstream ridge across Scandinavia, but as at the same time as the lobes of polar vortex start fragmenting in response to approach of final warming of the stratosphere, then breakaway troughs appear such as programmed next week to disrupt from Greenland to close to the west of the UK. Meantime the downstream ridge is preserved to the east and north and east as the negatively tilted trough process gets underway as modelled. The response of the Global Wind Oscillation, which is a plot depiction of these changes of wind-flow, is to head towards Phase 8, as reflection of falling angular momentum tendency of at least temporary loss of surfeit Nino westerly wind inertia in the global atmosphere. This gradual orbit from the Nino phase 7 represents the first part of the jet retraction process of recent days with the blocked Scandinavian High. The second part of the process is the trough splitting the ridging pattern as the amplifying Bermuda High hoovers up our ridging to the west and allows pressure to drop in its place. There are indications from the modelling that this retrogressive process c/o decelerating tropospheric and stratospheric zonal winds might complete with a further backing west of the trough and pressure rising from the SE to follow the more unsettled phase starting from the end of the Easter weekend. This needs to be watched to see how it might unfold for the extended period in ensemble products in the next few days
  3. 16 points
    I've mentioned this before - people are unduly worried about this. The UK's reservoirs are at generally high levels across most of the UK. (some regional exceptions) Put that into context - we had one of the driest summers on record last year and there were little issues. The media fans peoples fears and there's no need. We'll be OK. We can enjoy a nice summer... Read the UK reports here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports Even Kent and South London is at close to full which is arguably one of the driest parts of the country: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794178/Water_Situation_Report_Kent_South_London_March_2019.pdf Honestly - no need to worry.
  4. 15 points
    Massive change on the ukmo 00z!!trough hardly gets in now and the sunny warm weather continues all the way to the end of the run!!
  5. 15 points
    OK here is the last chance , in my view, of any snowy precipitation this cold season for the vast majority of the UK. It's overnight Tuesday into Wednesay when most model output has coldish uppers over most of the UK and disturbances in the flow. Here T850s at T84 from GFS, GEM, JMA, ICON, FV3: And the two that only do 24 hr updates ECM and UKMO at 12 hours earlier. For those who have been chasing this for ages, it is crunch time now. This is all there is, don't fall asleep and miss those snowflakes in the middle of the night Tuesday. From Thursday I expect the march towards summer will be inexorable. I don't think there will be another meaningful vote on winter, or any kind of extension beyond 12 April!
  6. 14 points
    So here we are, getting into Thursday, and the only threat of rainfall seems to be from thundery stuff coming from the South. Along with possibly even warmer uppers:
  7. 13 points
    Extract taken from post of last week to assess progress, at the end of a beautiful Easter weekend and when some of us are looking for clues when the next warm and settled spell may appear Had been looking for some further evidence to keep backing up the quoted suggestion and to prevent any slippery slope into a late Spring cool trough gaining further traction into a more extended period. Here it is: This velocity potential (VP) 200 anomaly cross-section represents an eastward moving convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) modelled to cross the Pacific during the first half of May. This matters because it provides a further boost to westerly wind bursts across the Pacific (to follow the current ongoing increased easterly trade winds close to the dateline) ensuring that upwelling of sub surface warmth can prevent any continued decline in this weak El Nino - and re-set the rossby wave pattern downstream once again back to being pre-disposed to building ridges instead of programming a persisting trough In association with the CCKW, deterministic MJO modelling has started to pick up on increased eastward progressing amplitude activity which should support a recovery in angular momentum tendency to resurrect from the the current downturn as part of a next uptick in ridging to replace the trough Unsettled for a time, yes - however its conceivable that the models might over programme the duration of the trough, but in any case, there are at least signs that the suggested improvement has some reasonable support to ensure that further fine weather has a chance of returning following the upcoming unsettled, cooler and windier spell A case though of keep watching to check this evolution stays constant and seeing how NWP responds
  8. 13 points
    So here's a kind of summery (sic!) of my view of what the models and other drivers might be saying as we head into the second half of spring and thence summer: 1. A settled and warm Easter virtually guaranteed, thereafter a less settled spell, but looks short lived or even very short lived before a high pressure regime takes hold again, as per ECM 12z by T240. 2. Quite a lot of this looks like last year all over again, but there are differences, one is SSTs close to UK, these were really cold last year following the Beast from the East, but now are considerably warmer than average: 3. AAM is higher than it was hovering about last year at the same time, possibly driven by warmer Pacific (ENSO), plot shows AAM anomaly for last year: Effect maybe to draw up a series of stronger ridges for UK than this time last year, if I recall correctly the very dry weather was more in the NW at first before spreading to the whole UK in June. If I'm not reading this completely wrong I think there could be more UK wide heat in May than last year. 4. Seasonal models. GloSea5 was strongly suggestive of a hot summer in March, toned down a bit in April, but still above average probability. CFS remaining steadfast in a high likelihood of a Scandi high throughout late spring early summer, and even further. 5. Some comment earlier re drought. I don't think this is likely to be a major issue because of the heavy rains rains in March, that is rain which will be able to percolate down to the aquifers fine without evaporation, which becomes a problem later into summer. All in all, a very interesting late spring early summer season ahead, let's see how it pans out. Regards Mike
  9. 13 points
    Looks like as the final warming-aided HLB spell finally subsides we see a ‘Nino switch’ flipped with a typical struggling Atlantic trough and Scandinavian high combination. Thats the usual predominant pattern with a weak Nino and low solar activity in Apr-July. Settled increasingly warm/hot spells punctuated by destabilisations by shallow troughs which tend to provide some thundery entertainment. Remains to be seen what complications we see from, for example, the cold anomalies in the SSTs just S of Greenland (may keep the jet stronger and HP further S) and the low Arctic sea ice (may enable stronger Scandinavian highs than usual even for the Nino base state, along with more Azores High interplay - if the next few months turn out unusually dry it’ll most likely be the the low Arctic sea ice responsible).
  10. 13 points
    Just back from my first ever and very brief stay on Harris. What a place. The weather held fine for us so we were out all the time despite us needing several layers to keep the warmth in (and suncream) I rediscovered my love of beaches... these Luskentyre and this was the sunrise through thin cloud at Drinishader one morning (about to go for the ferry to N. Uist.) These are near Ballyshare on N. Uist Never seen so many different birds. I'm guessing no foxes, badgers, pine martens etc. There must be more oystercatchers there than anywhere else I've been. Also lapwings...
  11. 13 points
    A lot of it is hope casting, fuelled by the summer we experienced last year. The same happened after winters '09 and' 10. When you've recently experienced it, it becomes much more tangible. The same is true when you win at casino, you feel you can do it again and again.
  12. 13 points
    Good few hours of snow this morn giving around 18cms. Sticky, heavy stuff, as a result it took down some trees/branches and killed the power for most of the morning (thought my partner had started doing opera in the shower but it was just the heat disappearing) In general, fairly benign weather to report lately but any clear skies have been really welcome and leave you wanting more of the same Plenty blue above Rùm seen from Skye last week, with Eigg just visible beyond. Loch Ness on Sunday night, chilly but clear with little wind and no midges yet
  13. 12 points
    The 6z operational is insane, i'm in shock and awe after seeing that run!!
  14. 12 points
    The advantages of a late Easter are we've a greater chance of warmer temps and this year is no eggception Cracking stuff
  15. 12 points
    Anyhoo, let's have some high pressure, warmth and heat from the GEFS 12z
  16. 12 points
    Woke to this, our motorhome to the left. Had to push the snow out of the way to get the door open. At least 12 inches, probably more..
  17. 12 points
    Yes..just when you think it's the last chance saloon, another saloon opens just down the road..great potential..where have I used the word potential before..about 1000 times during that crap winter!!.
  18. 12 points
    Slack Winds & pretty deep cold for this time of year + some snow cover - Could we break a -10c in Scotland...
  19. 12 points
    Been snowing on and off in Braemar for a few hours but nowt to show for it. Can't wait to see the hills tomorrow though! Nice walk up Morrone after work this evening....just as the snow started to fall
  20. 11 points
    There’s just no stopping that Eastern UK/Scandinavian High Pressure system at the moment. (And the same is the case from the 06Z GFS at 144 hours, where it looks mostly warm and settled). Nothing can seem to stand in the High’s way - including the Atlantic Lows!
  21. 11 points
  22. 11 points
    Took my wee puppy, Fingal, on his first ever walk outside of our garden earlier. Tweed running !ow, forest very dry. And here he is earlier in the week:
  23. 11 points
    Just thinking today in spite of the sunshine the wind was very chilly and night time temperatures are still too low for sustained growth.In fact night time temperatures for the next two weeks are low. I often think spring is the one season not to succumb to the warming trend with its tendancy to give winter a second chance in most years. This habit of keeping cold outbreaks going is one of the biggest handicaps for agriculture in the north of Scotland and this year coming on top of three very dry preceding seasons is putting a lot of pressure on farmers. Thankfully we had a good crop of swedes (turnips) which provide a lot of energy to the cattle while we are waiting for the proper energy giving grass to grow. Also cattle rely on bugs in their stomachs to digest their food and it takes up to six weeks to change to new bugs to specifically to break down fresh green grass so today the cows went out to a little fresh grass as part of the process in changing from a winter diet to a spring one. Currenty clear and 5c
  24. 11 points
    Just what I like to see: heat to our SE and troughing in the Atlantic...long may it continue!
  25. 11 points
    Super pics, HC, of a beautiful part of Scotland. I particularly like the breaking wave.
  26. 11 points
  27. 11 points
    Get the cold in.... And the heatwave will follow!
  28. 11 points
    Stunning looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, especially 1 week from now..following a milder interval it looks like turning considerably colder next week from the east / northeast..if you just saw the week ahead forecast from Helen Willetts there's no drama next week, just turning a bit chillier again with temps around 10c..think I'm flogging a dead horse ramping these charts!
  29. 11 points
    ECM would bring A rash of showers in across the ESE - Snow over higher ground Thicknesses ~ 527DAM
  30. 11 points
    I hope my mates in the cold mafia (sacra) won't object to me posting this, there's actually quite a lot of support for another warm up on the GEFS 6z!
  31. 11 points
    -11.2c @850 is the lowest GFS run for London! -12c for the North of England - -13.6 was the lowest for the North of Scotland !
  32. 11 points
    one last wintry visitor... 7E30D553-8321-426A-89F3-6D83135739FA.MOV
  33. 11 points
    Yeah the most wintry looking charts we have seen all year, as we head towards April. Bring it on,we deserve a change of luck.some of us have been chasing cold since mid November for goodness sake and still we are here
  34. 11 points
    Holy cow, 510 dam in early April on Gfs 00z operational and a snow fest..I kid you not!!..anyweather..take a bow..hold on though, it hasn't happened yet!!
  35. 10 points
    Greetings to you all! Since we're into April, got a shiny new model thread to go along with it! For quite a few, it has been an amusing start to the month so far. Sunshine, rain, hail, sleet and snow, thunder, and a bit of wind. Everything you could probably think of (well, except for the golden kitchen sink!) Quite a chilly start it has been, But... will it get any warmer? The models seem to generally suggest things warming up a little during the weekend, and this then maybe followed by a cold blast from the North-East into the following week? Maybe then the possibility of pressure building over the UK with warmer, sunnier weather? Some interesting times ahead whatever happens (though I wouldn't mind a much warmer spell developing! But maybe I'd also welcome that possible cold blast from the East next week if it brought a few flurries!). The Rules As we often say, please keep things friendly and on topic in here. Some banter, including the odd bit of off-topic chat, is fine as longs it doesn't cause the thread to come off its tracks. The team will moderate this thread from time to time to keep it focused on the models and prevent derailment! Bad and rude behaviour will not be tolerated either! Alternative Threads To chat more generally about the Spring weather, please head over to the spring thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/ And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/ For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/ Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF and ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office (UKMO) FAX GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere Previous thread here: Cheers all!
  36. 10 points
    Happy Easter folks... Great post from singularity, and well made points from DRL. Yes folks don't get to disappointed over this mini breakdown, I expect a week at most of more unsettled conditions before pressure rises and brings warm weather yet again! And when it does, it will be the 3rd warm spell since February already.... Not bad Considering it still won't be technically summer!!
  37. 10 points
    To much panic going on folks with water shortages.... Its still April! And has we no, we can experience a months rainfall in a few days here in the UK. It's probably best not to wish this fine spell away just yet, especially when you take a look at some of the miserable summers over the last few years! If the worse comes to the worst, we always have the North Sea to tap into, if ya don't mind your water a bit oily and salty!! Cause I doubt Europe would even send us bottled water with this naff brexit deal.... So if we get any rain let's just hope it comes during the overnight periods!!! At least 10 more fine days away from the NW if you ask me.... And yes even this could be extended.... Let's enjoy it folks!
  38. 10 points
    Can it ever be too early for heat storms? EA could certainly do with one or two of those, right now!
  39. 10 points
    Breaking news. There is a chance of mid 20's celsius at the end of this week..watch this space!!!!
  40. 10 points
    Clear skies and very nice towards the Cairngorms last night as the sun faded -5.8c this morn but warmer under this cloud towards Inverness, cool seeing it snake up the glen
  41. 10 points
    A very decent end to a very dismal run: All we need now is for that overall pattern to stay like that from now until the end of October...sun, warmth and storms!
  42. 10 points
    GFS now caught up - -9c for the extreme SE now @126. Dewpoints -3/-4c- surface temp 4-5c Overnight & daytime windchill subzero all the way through Sat for the ESE
  43. 10 points
    Some decent storms around today, not much in the way of lightning activity but plenty of hail and things to look at. These setups have surprised me before so i figured i'd try chasing them this time. I set out around 3:30 and headed north on the A34. The cells near bicester looked promising and the lack of shear made it really easy to get up close to them - they were pretty much just building on the spot. This thing put out a tonne of hail and and couple lightning strikes before dying out. At 4:45 the focus shifted north and i decided to drive west on the A41 to get ahead of the rain. By this time new cells were developing over milton keynes and going strong. i blasted north into buckingham and got this picture before my phone gave up on me. The one on the right was decaying but the updraft on the left kept going and left a huge hail swath on the route i was taking. It also put out a lightning strike, which i heard through the car. Not bad for this time of year. I continued chasing, going north west through MK and then up into northampton by about 6pm; by this time the sun was setting and i was running out of fuel so i called it a day. Went pretty well, i'll definitely need to buy a dashcam for next time.
  44. 10 points
    Picture postcard winter charts from the UKMO- Even at this stage that 144 UKMO is sending the fairly deep upper air cold pool ( -10c ) SW towards the UK.. The bottom values of the GFS ens for London were around -8c --
  45. 10 points
    The extended GEFS 6z is interesting, quite a lot of warm potential..but also some arctic potential too. The glorious duality of spring!..on this occasion i'm only showing the warmth because I'm so unbiased! There's still a strong blocking signal with scandi height rises gradually backing west to the north of the uk so to me it looks like a gradually improving picture next week but eastern coast's would be cold.
  46. 10 points
    Outlook - becoming unsettled for the rest of the week with the UK under the auspices of an upper trough resulting in a complex area of low pressure residing over us which will also bring with it much cooler weather and some strong winds at times The NH 500mb profile (the aforementioned trough is east of southern Greenland) and the Atlantic analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK chart As can be seen quite a chilly start to the day in most places, and with clear skies, which will remain the case for the rest of the day and getting quite warm in southern regions. But cloud with patchy rain from the front(s) associated with the trough is already effecting the north west and these will track south east through the day resulting in much colder day in northern regions A continuation of this through this evening and overnight with the cold front Humber > Cornwall by 0600 with frequent wintry showers in the colder air behind the front The cold front clears the south east by midday on Tuesday but by now the upper trough as descended south east over the UK and the associated surface low with a little wrap around occlusion is just west of Scotland The result of all this is a much colder day with frequent wintry showers, particularly in north western and western regions in the very unstable air. And example of this below vis sounding and convective cloud heights This scenario will continue overnight into Wednesday morning but the showers more likely more confines to western regions in the quite brisk northerly wind, coalescing in the troughs and convergence zones embedded in the flow But by midday Wednesday a wave has formed on the old cold front and is in the North sea and this with the associated occlusion could bring a more concentrated area of rain into the north with perhaps some snow on the high ground in the north. Still quite windy down western coastal regions with showers and another cold day generally Over Thursday and Friday low pressure remains in situ, boosted a tad by another trough dropping in from the west, whilst the subtropical high to the south west starts ti ridge strongly north east. Thus sunny intervals and showers but beginning to warm up a tad by Friday.
  47. 10 points
    There's nothing much happening with the weather again, back to the normal yawnfest round here. I have a strange thing for trees against a blue sky, no idea why but I always feel compelled to take a pic:
  48. 10 points
    18z operational shows snow next week, even for the southeast..hope the Ecm comes on board tomorrow!
  49. 10 points
    GFS lining up another arctic shot at 288hrs...you wait for months for this type of set up, and they send 2 your way in a few days... Typical.... But I'm liking it.
  50. 10 points
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