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Showing content with the highest reputation since 18/02/19 in Posts

  1. 29 points
    Can I be the first to welcome @knocker back to the asylum full time !
  2. 25 points
    Well that's me done on the cold and snow search for this year. Of course there's always the chance of a late March early April surprise but I wouldn't bank on it. The winter showed more promise than it ever delivered for many members on this forum. I count myself lucky to have had at least one very decent snowfall (10cms) which stuck around for about three days. Which is not to be sniffed at on the south coast of England. Hopefully next winter will bring something better to all my cold and snow loving fellow members. Until then enjoy spring and summer my friends and I,ll be back in the autumn. (Unless of course a snowy surprise turns up in the next six weeks lol.)
  3. 21 points
    I felt a sudden uncontrollable urge to say...BOOM..BOOM..BOOM..sincere apologies!
  4. 21 points
    Outlook - Trending towards a NW/SE split and very warm for a time The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart The low to the west of Scotland slowly drifts north east during today but bits and pieces of old occlusions will continue to bring heavy showers to N. Ireland and western Scotland, coalescing at times into longer spells of rain. At the other end of the country, in the south east, the current gloom will continue with further outbreaks of rain during the day courtesy of the old cold front still being a nuisance Elsewhere sunny intervals but perhaps the odd shower. Temps a little above average Tonight the low will continue to track north east to be west of Norway and the cold front in the south also finally clears. Thus a generally clearer and colder night, maybe just a touch of frost in places, and showers confined to the north west So a chilly start to tomorrow but then a fairly pleasant day for most with lighter winds, courtesy of a very transient ridge, but the nest frontal system approaching from the west with bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1400. And this will spread east and effect northern England and Wales through the afternoon. Temps still a tad above average It will continue wet and windy in the north through Tuesday night and Wednesday as the complex system tracks north of Scotland with the south of the country remaining dry. temps trending well above average. But to the west the oft mentioned deep low gas arrived on the scene and is 939mb in mid Atlantic Over Thursday and Friday amplification occurs with the Atlantic trough digging a fair way south and in the process initiating a long South westerly fetch into the UK and thus some very warm air So a very warm couple of days with max temps in the lap of the gods but certainly mid to high teens. Any rain rain confined to the far north west Wrong thread Will the string of garlic and the silver crucifix be sufficient?
  5. 20 points
    Highly unlikely. Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)? Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".
  6. 19 points
    Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c in places!
  7. 18 points
    Calling it a day! Towell has been thrown No lasting cold 850s in view again and have been trying to hang in there, still believing since the big bust in January! Was giving it till Sunday but calling it now, hoping as I write this something may still show soon but my faith in model analysis has been broken. Sad seeing the beeb showing the bfte last year this morning. Siberia! Unreal graphics on forecasts. Red warnings, (m74) closed. I was on route to Scotland the day after. Made it but couldn't see anything bar the poles on the a66.☺ Enough reminiscing. See u for the thunderstorms during the heat or December for another 47 hunt. Thanks to you all for your posts. Good and bad. Hot and cold.
  8. 18 points
    Spring may well be approaching but the ensembles are trending back to winter! After what could be record February warmth I wouldn’t mind a bit of March snowfall
  9. 17 points
    Morning all, So, a big pattern change is on the way, as the blocking area of high pressure over Europe the last 7 days slips south to allow Atlantic lows and frontal systems in from the west across the UK from tomorrow. The change comes as the jet stream, which has diverted well to the north of the UK over the past week, shifts south, strengthens and takes aim at the UK over coming days. The strengthening of the jet stream is likely linked to an upper ridge pushing north across Alaska and the arctic before dropping down across NW Canada, kicking out very cold air here and northern Canada southwards across central and eastern US later this week and into next week. This will in turn cause a steepening thermal gradient across NE USA and out across NW Atlantic strengthening the jet stream across the North Atlantic. Over the weekend, the models forecast an increasingly disturbed spell, as the developmental left exit of a strong jet streak (where there is strong divergence aloft and convergence at the surface) moves toward the UK/Ireland and will likely to allow rapid cyclogenesis to take place over the Atlantic with a deepening low pressure system headed towards NW UK for Saturday, though GFS, UKMO and EC differ on depth, EC has more of a wave, GFS and UKMO a deeper closed low passing Scotland. Another low looks to develop in a trough in the jet which looks to move further south across southern Britain for later on Sunday, this could deepen as it approaches the UK too. Potential for a named low if one these lows deepens sufficiently to produce severe gales. Then the models suggest unsettled cool to sometimes cold zonality next week, as the jet stream shifts south of the UK, the depth of cold of the polar maritime westerly flow differing between 00z GFS and EC, sub -5C 850mb temps spreading east a lot further south than EC, which keeps the sub -5C air generally over northern UK. So question marks over how far south any wintry precipitation can develop, so would hold off getting too excited for snow away from northern hills. Even the colder GFS shows little in the way of wintriness away from hills in the north and west, though some low-level snow possible in the far north. But, with air pollution levels rather high today bringing poor air quality to much of England, Wales and southern Scotland, thanks to high pressure inversion and lack of wind, it may perhaps be some relief to get some clean Atlantic air blowing in by the weekend! Though the unseasonably warm sunshine will probably be missed and unlikely to return for a while.
  10. 17 points
    ECM looks wintry at day 9-10 with a slightly undercutty scenario- also a dusting over the uk @day 6
  11. 17 points
    Outlook - Warm, very warm for a time, and relatively dry but tending towards a NW/SE split The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight and the Chatham, Cape Cod, sounding for same time just to show the measured 190kt jet over the eastern US There is currently still a fair bit of rain around over the north west as the waving cold front continues to move slowly south east, and this will persist through the morning but slowly fragment on it's travels as it reaches Wales and the Midlands by late afternoon. Another mild day but cloudy for most apart from the south where there will be sunny intervals. The front will slowly clear most areas overnight but still generally cloudy with bits and bobs of rain/drizzle around, mainly in western regions. Another frost free night except perhaps for northeast Scotland where is clearer. On Thursday we are in the pattern that has been discussed previously so will skip any repetition and suffice it to say becoming dry and warmer with perhaps some cloud and patchy drizzle in western parts early on Overnight Thursday through Friday a similar, very warm and dry, day but the complex upper trough to the west is taking slightly closer order and some rain may effect the north west from a surface cold front. Another very warm day on Saturday, these temps are not written in stone, but we now have twin cyclones to the west and the trailing cold front from the initial one, now near Iceland, may bring some rain to the far west late on. As the two cyclones adjust positions overnight Saturday through Sunday the weakening cold front will finally traverse the country so cloudy with sunny intervals and maybe just a tad cooler
  12. 16 points
  13. 16 points
    Well..the 18z at least shows a risk of snow in early and then again towards mid march as cold air digs in behind some beefy atlantic systems..so hopefully some interesting weather in march..for coldies..well, the few of us left!!
  14. 15 points
  15. 15 points
    18z brings a snow risk to even SW and SE early next week, not gonna post precipitation charts beyond a week as it becomes to subject to change. So even you southerners all is not lost.... Watch this space....
  16. 15 points
    Here is the first potential trouble maker, plenty of cold air in the circulation regarding this low pressure system! Gfs starting to stand for GOOD FOR SNOW!! Edit.... Just look at some of the snow row activity!! Probably the highest its been since last year.
  17. 15 points
    One would have been hard pushed to have predicted snow at lower elevations across eastern Ireland this afternoon as happened in spades, based even on the 12z GFS dew points and T850s. T850s and DPs for 15z this afternoon. It seems that the intense nature of the precipitation on the northern flank of deepening Storm Freya caused big evaporative cooling of the air to allow the freezing level to drop enough to allow snow to lower levels. Snow reaching to lower elevations across far north of England this evening too, though would never have guessed looking at dew points, T850s and 850-1000mb thicknesses. Goes to show, that T850s aren’t the be all and end all, heavy precipitation with rapidly developing lows and colder air cutting on northern flank at the surface can catch out forecasters! Wouldn't be surprised if we see a few more snow surprises in the next week or so in the colder Pm incursions progged by models from time to time between systems moving east.
  18. 15 points
    There is good support for a potentially wintry flavour developing next week from the Gfs / Gefs/ Ecm op / mean...could be something for coldies to celebrate in the not too distant future!oh boy it's been a rotton stinking winter..time for some early spring snow??❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄
  19. 15 points
    Well..hello winter.. where have you been hiding???..sod the timeframe..it's wintry!!❄❄❄
  20. 15 points
    Tbh Crackerjack I was one of many who got suckered into the freezing cold winter predictions from the big guns!! I spent some time researching these background signals myself, for example MJO phases and SSW down welling, and you know what I've come to the opinion it matters not a jot!! Certainly not on an island the size of the UK. Just one little instance can throw the whole procedure out of zinc. Back in the day it was a case of, if high pressure builds to the NW or NE, its game on!! Now it's all talk of rosby waves and these fancy elaborate words! It matters not a dam in a climate of this size. I remember to this day that bold prediction by the met a few years back on BBC, Alex deacon saying live on air, it looks like a barbecue summer!! And I thought how foolish to make a prediction like that in a climate like ours!! Never again was a long term prediction like that to be mentioned in the public eye! I should have known better about getting suckered in. All I am seeing now is slight interest in FI, and it quickly gets watered down! And yep, you guessed it, only 10 days till march. Background signals in future, should be as the name implies!! They should remain in the background. Still hopeful of a snow event, but relenting cold as faded quicker than my bloody hairline.
  21. 14 points
    This was the view from my house earlier, it's now mostly melted. It reminded me of the snow in March 2006, just the way it fell and the size and type of snow. It's a shame the cards didn't fall right here, on another day we'd have had a foot of snow but sometimes you lose the snow lottery. At least March is giving us some weather. We've now had more snow, more wind and almost as much rain in 16 days in March than in the whole of winter.
  22. 14 points
    A mini-whumphing from the snaw here this morning. Around 3 inches since half 7. Easing off now. 0.7C/-1C after an overnight low of -2.1C. Springtime! Edit: getting heavier again.
  23. 14 points
    Gfs 12z bringing some interesting snowfalls In the coming week.... That's right! It's not to far out of the reliable folks!! The north could get pasted at times! It takes a lot for me to stand up and take note... But not me cat, boy was he shocked!
  24. 14 points
    Gfs still flying the flag for snow, here is just a little taster for early next week! I tell ya what my animals are starting to act strange, trust me they know!
  25. 14 points
    This is for any coldies who are left on here..very FI but who cares!..something from the GFS 12z & GEFS 12z!!
  26. 14 points
    We've seen some hints that maybe the MJO signal briefly finds its way through with less interference, but no more than that... so here we are looking at further distorted pattern responses. The MJO always drives amplification when active, it's where that occurs that differs depending on which phase it's in and how much interference there is from other factors. This week and next, the amplification is being distorted such that the height rises focus a fair way further south and east of the usual response. This being via stronger westerly flow persisting on the N flanks of the subtropical highs, essentially 'rooting' the major height rises to the subtropics as very resilient mid-latitude blocking features. There's no dive south and undercut of the polar jet to enable some HLB to take shape. Generally, that jet behaviour is the critical prerequisite for some at least transient HLB to occur, while a negative AO is the one for sustained HLB to take place. So even without the AO co-operating i.e. the SSW downwelling as hoped, were it not for the Nina-like interference, we'd likely have seen variable HLB during the second half of this month, which is good for battleground scenarios. One of the darkest sides to being aware of long-range weather prospects, is knowing what you could have had, when it's all gone awry. For me, the most frustrating thing about the past few months from a professional perspective has been that due to unusually poor modelling of the MJO, we've had no reliable indicators for whether the interference would continue or come to an end; all we could do is watch the observation data come in and then adjust expectations accordingly, by which time the period of interest has been within about a week's range instead of two or three. From this comes an important point - it's not usually this bad! So that's something to look forward to I guess .
  27. 14 points
    Not a bad set I must say, generally trending colder with a fair few straddlers approaching the - 10 mark.
  28. 14 points
    You and me both, Don. Still think they'll be a "sting in the tail", as we enter March. I'll order one of these with extra fries, please!! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/1/1/mar1970.pdf Regards, Tom.
  29. 13 points
    Before and after shots from up here, from yesterday and today
  30. 13 points
    I was so happy to see snaw this morning I loved watching everything turning white. Hopefully others had a good snaw day too. A couple of snaps from the car...
  31. 13 points
    0.5C and fairly light snow. Steady though, with 5cm lying.
  32. 13 points
  33. 13 points
    Wow..just wow..and wow again from the Gfs 12z operational ..and this increasing risk of wintry ppn has backing from exeter with temps set to dip below average and snow should therefore be expected to feature more and more..these ain't just pure fantasy charts!!!
  34. 13 points
    True but I haven't given up on some snow this month and the Gfs / Gefs keep hopes alive..even the Ecm 12z days 9 and 10 look cold enough for something wintry..good to see at least a few of us will keep the coldie flag flying until it's time to lower it until Nov / Dec!
  35. 13 points
    I really like the Gfs 12z operational because it gives all of us a chance of snow at times, not just confined to the north and higher ground..hoping we will see some wintry weather this month to put the last 3 months to shame..plus, as a coldie I want to experience the joys of going weak at the knees and hyperventilating at the thought of seeing a snow flake at my nearest lamp post!❄
  36. 13 points
    Outlook - Unsettled and very windy at times The North Atlantic 500mb hPa and vorticity analysis and surface for midnight and the 0300 WV image The rain and weakening cold front will clear into the North Sea this morning leaving the country dry but fairly cloudy but where the sun does take a peek through another quite warm day with temps above average. But by midday fronts associated with the deep low north west of Ireland have will have brought rain into N. Ireland and western Scotland and this will track east through the afternoon, clearing N. Ireland by 1800 accompanied by a strengthening wind. The cold front just about clears the south coast during this evening so mild and dry in many areas but the low has edged a tad east so some very heavy squally showers in the north west with strong winds and severe gales in exposed areas The squally showers continue in the north on Sunday but by now complications have arisen as storm Freya has formed on the trailing cold front and deepened quickly as it tracks north east to be 981mb south of Ireland by midday. This pushes the front and rain back north again through Sunday morning before the next batch of heavier rain arrives in the south west by 1300. This then tracks north east through the rest of the day and evening as Freya does likewise with some very strong winds along it's southern quadrant with severe gusts in the areas along the track. Over the high ground in the north the precipitation could well be of snow with some quite significant accumulations. Obviously the precise track is important here The gales and rain will clear overnight Sunday leaving Monday to be a blustery day with squally showers, mainly in western regions with temps now back to around average Tuesday, with the original low still filling quietly to the north west of Ireland, looks likely to be another showery day in the north with the occlusion wrapped around there but meanwhile things are afoot in the mid Atlantic where another trough has arrived. This is being pushed south by the Bermuda high amplifying as it engages with the trough in situ over the UK And by Wednesday the troughs have merged over the UK and the process has brought more rain and squally showers which may well be wintry in the north as there is quite a marked N/S temp contrast
  37. 13 points
    Just spent a glorious few days in Aviemore - warm and sunny was the order of the day! We really are lucky to have a place as beautiful as the Highlands in our country/right on our doorstep. My parents used to take me up every year when I was a kid so I thought let’s keep the traditional going with my son. (Just turned 1 year old) Here he is looking delighted to be there! We spent lots of time at Lochan Mor below. Rothiemurchus really is an incredible place - fantastic for a long walk and we had the perfect weather for it. Loch an Eilein was spectacular as always. Loch Morlich has always been my favourite. Reindeers visit is always a must! There was no snowsports to be had up on the Cairngorms unfortunately but I did enjoy the odd snow patch or two! And as I leave...they are in for plenty of snow in the coming days/weeks. (Just my luck) Another memorable Winter visit done and dusted - back again next year to do it all again. Hopefully more of a Winter wonderland next time but I will take the weather we had as a runner up prize anytime.
  38. 13 points
    We had an epic day trip from the Borders to Crieff via Stirling, then on to Loch Earn and a walk up the old railway line up Glen Ogle. Borders sunrise: Loch Earn: Views from the old railway line: Sunset from Lochearnhead: Proper sunset at Callander: The old railway line up the side of Glen Ogle is a good, easy walk. We're not really proper hillwalkers especially since MrsC has a knackered ankle so it was suitably outdoors without being too much of a challenge. We had a walk round the Knock at Crieff but I never got any pics. The weather was very kind to us. Warm at Crieff but a little chilly up Glen Ogle. Hardly any insects or bugs and some hazy sunshine and not a drop of rain. What more can you ask for in Scotland in February except perhaps some of that mythical snow nonsense?
  39. 13 points
    Just for once this winter..or is it summer?..really confusing!..can an Ecm run showing cold and in places snow..please verify!!!!
  40. 13 points
    A serious lack of sunspot activity - like about 600 days on the bounce without a single sunspot, an E-qbo, a medoki El-nino, a -PDO, a conistantly favourable MJO throughout the whole season, the aforenmentioned Nino coupling up with the atmosphere, ie - a big - SOI resulting in huge +AAM throughout the season, off the scale +MT event resulting in a massive SSW which splits and propagates, the strat then staying favourable throughout, and even then a lot of luck on top of that.
  41. 13 points
    7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way! Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET. 13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder! Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect! This is February!!!
  42. 13 points
    Astonishing comment! Just because your location is not well above average it means that this mild spell is nothing noteworthy??
  43. 12 points
  44. 12 points
    Just a few more pics before I take the kids out for some fun.
  45. 12 points
  46. 12 points
    A marked change starting tomorrow, all thanks to a resurgent atlantic, temperatures still above average for few more days in the south at least, becoming average everywhere early next week, a bit colder than average in the north - it will feel cold everywhere under strong winds, little sun and much rain with snow on higher ground, and perhaps lower levels into next week for the north, with cold uppers invading, sub 528 dam air, becoming sub 522 dam air, in early March means low level snow highly likely. Longer term - a volatile situation, significant cold pool spilling into NE atlantic, could result in strong winds/gales, secondary low development, and eventually cold cyclonic conditions, with every threat of a widespread snow event I think.. with signs of a more fragmented PV, and crucially its core moving away from N Canada and into Siberia which would allow height rises to the north west.
  47. 12 points
  48. 12 points
    I've got an old (2012) iPhone 5s which is rammed with (weather) photos of and the battery is getting less reliable. I had to get rid of a few photos to create space for an update and forgot about a photo I took from Glen Nevis campsite on the foot of Ben Nevis. It was taken on the 17th of July 2018. I've seen double rainbows, fog bows but never a rainbow that hugs the mountainside. Has anyone seen this before? Is there a technical term? It has been so mild recently that Ive even taken the motorbike to work rather than cycling so my box that keeps my bike helmet was free. Florence filled it as it is her catty right.
  49. 12 points
    i see Mr.P has far less likes and very few followers compared to the buffoons who sit on their throne ..courting the masses in the hunt for cold thread..where people wait with bated breath on their every post..telling them to ignore the models as cold is just around the corner and watch the models backtrack..because the NH set up is different this year..but the models are proved right 90% of the time..whilst they spout the same old BS day after day..then disappear when spring arrives only to return in October to start the same circus all over again.
  50. 12 points
    Wow, that's some cold pool staring us right in the face! One last chase peeps!! Come on I'm up for it!
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