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Hats off to the models. They had picked up on the deepening trough in the nearby Atlantic on the run-up to Easter about a week ago. Not a great outcome in terms of the weather, but the UK and Ireland in the box seat for observing some industrious cyclogenesis over the next 4 days, here on the 0z ECM op. Interesting to see the two packets of low heights dropping out of northeast Canada, the second one really packing a punch and deepening the low pressure to around 965mb, as it spins around nearby giving us all a good wallop, centred to the northwest of Ireland by Thursday. The 0z ECM mean anomaly chart for day 5, Good Friday, shows the problem for the Easter holiday in the form of the trapped trough, held firmly in place for several days by a bank of heights pushing up over the western half of the Atlantic and the other bank stubbornly holding on over the eastern half of Europe. The western Atlantic heights look to ultimately prove the stronger, migrating north to Greenland by day 10, squeezing the trough to the north through the Norwegian Sea as the eastern European heights get slowly nudged into Russia, allowing the surface low to move through to Germany, bringing the UK and Ireland into a northeasterly flow. So looking like we’ll eventually get rid of the poorly timed unsettled spell for something a bit drier and chillier. Yes, hats off to the models but I’ll definitely be keeping my hat on. At this time of the year in particular, with the full range of weather that the spring can offer, the choice of hat is indeed a valuable indicator of how it’s going. Clearly far too early for the time being to venture to the apparel shown on the left, looks like I’ll be sticking with my reliably functional fisherman’s beanie for now. Have a great day.20 points
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I knew there was going to be some convective activity today but I was under the impression that any storms that developed would be much further west, gutted I wasn't paying attention as I could easily have got to a decent location. Oh well, I did send the drone up for a brief look, not a bad looking storm for march YouCut_20240327_193142229.mp419 points
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Fax 120 indicating that although low pressure to the west will be domiant this weekend its by no means a total washout. Saturday looking fairly warm in a light southerly with sunshine and showers. Probably some downpours, particularly south west but at least not wall to wall rain and probably feeling quite nice if you are sheltered.16 points
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No hail here but some lovely cloudscapes once again this afternoon, with a brief vibrant rainbow as the showers zoomed past. Distant shower: New showers approaching from west / south west, I think the second photo is facing more north though, part of that shower line still: Then the back end of those newer showers:15 points
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Currently heavy wet snow here in Plymouth. It's settling on cars and roof-top's. I live just 500m from the waterfront, 25m above sea level. Has just been reported there's been 2 serious RTAs in the last half hour. No gritting. Completely caught out with this! 20240327_220454.mp413 points
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Today's selection: YouCut_20240323_134748863~2.mp4 Hail mixed in a few of them, but couldn't spot any mammatus clouds surprisngly; seen a few photos of some stunners in the south east elsewhere. Dropped to 4.5°C at 11:30 during one of the showers. Feels like winter when the sun dissappears in the clouds / showers!13 points
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Wow what a night and morning!!!! Snow settling in plymouth for a time (gone now) and thick thick snow on the moor on the 28th March. To those who say it can't snow in March you are talking rubbish!!! It was perfect conditions a pivoting front cold air no wind. Started raining at 3c just watched the temperature continuously falling. At 2c some thick looking rain. At 1.5c wet snow. At 1c the biggest flakes I've ever seen. Temperature eventually fell to -0.3c. Amazing evaporative cooling event!12 points
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Temperature down to freezing huge huge flakes best I've seen since 2018. Shame it will gone by morning! 20240327_214811_1.mp412 points
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Eagle Eye @Ben Sainsbury Seems in winter and spring we have these powerful lows come through with strong low and deep level shear but just not enough heating or moisture to give us any sufficient instability and then in summer we have good instability but never enough shear to do anything interesting, plus lapse rates become a bit iffy the later we go on. One of these years though we'll get lucky, hopefully its this year I think the key to tornado or just severe convective events in the UK is having a spanish plume or trough park itself off to the west/southwest that supplies warmth and moisture, then have a surface low develop that can enhance low level shear. Thats my thinking anyway. This is from tornado archives from the Birmingham 2005 tornado*11 points
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Convective Outlook️ Showers forming along a shortwave trough behind an occluded front in the early afternoon are likely to cluster mainly in the southern Irish sea, the far SW of England, western Wales and southwestern Ireland. Some fairly strong buoyant air should help force up with lots of energy for these showers to come with sporadic lightning likely given the time of year and limited potential for the energy. The occluded front itself in the eastern parts through a lot of the day may bring a sporadic lightning strike or two. Strong surface energy and low-level winds in areas may aid some strong surface winds along with these showers as well. Small potential for a tornado in all of that. The deep-layer shear is strongest in the England and Wales parts of the slight risk, perhaps a small chance of a Supercell from that then. Hail is unlikely to be strong but the lift and cell mergers could force some kind of hail. That should clear NE wards with a few straggling showers before a lifting occluded front clears it in the evening. Especially showers may linger in Ireland.11 points
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Morning all, Ive not been online in a couple of weeks because I have been busy moving house! After 15 years of coastal living in the East Neuk and another 4 in Broughty Ferry I’m a coastie no longer. Now in Glenrothes. So a little wetter, colder in winter and warmer in summer. Less haar. And of course better snow prospects. While I wouldn’t consider Glenrothes a mecca for snow, it is compared to Pittenweem and I should be posting snow pics more regularly (my last were Feb 21!). I also have the Lomonds on my doorstep!11 points
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I don't know why some members bother posting on a weather forum at all?! They seem to sit in this thread waiting for a chance to be combative. It's gone beyond moaning or ramping for a select few.11 points
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feb1991blizzard Lovely. Too late now, looking for warmth. My old bones need to dry out and get warm.11 points
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Eleven years ago today when I still lived at Ballaleigh between Peel and Kirk Michael on the west of the Isle of Man we had an epic blizzard resulting in the scenes below. That is a full size motor home below my hound. The last snow drift on Sartfell which is only 1600 odd feet high lasted for 89 days.11 points
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I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels. Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.10 points
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Convective Outlook️ A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight. Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction. Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur. Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further. Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level forcing.10 points
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Tomorrow in the South-western areas looks to be quite interesting as @Eagle Eye pointed out. Locally could expect <1000 j/kg of Surface based Cape tomorrow in the South west and central areas along with a strongly sheared environment (0-1km SRH) that coincides with a curved hodograph. I would not be surprised that if storms matured in this environment especially in the south-west, we could see properly strong storms even later on into the evening hours tomorrow as seen on the Arome model. A tornado seems unlikely but could still happen if the ingredients line up.10 points
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Been quite impressive just outside of Frome. Security Camera isn't really the best for catching lightning but can see the end of the fork just behind the tree as it disappates. If the Blitzortung is roughly accurate, that went down just about 2 miles south west of me.10 points
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Quiet in here... sensing many are wanting something drier, warmer and sunnier than currently on offer, hence lack of posts. From a weather enthusiast's perspective, the outlook is quite interesting, certainly not standard synoptic fayre, as offten the case hereon through to June, when cyclonic, northerly, easterly airstreams tend to show their hand more than any other part of the year. In the short term, all models are aligning the deep trough just to our west, throwing in bouts of wind and rain, cool in the north, rather mild further south with more of a S/SW flow but won't feel pleasant in the wind, rain and cloud. As we approach the 4 day easter period, more uncertainty finer details, but there continues to be a strong signal for heights to develop robustly to our north/north west, shunting the trough east after a slowly filling low, jet pulled south, chillier but drier air feeding in but perhaps too late to save most of the easter period. ECM showing a cold/snow lovers dream at least a month too late, long drawn easterlies from a cold source.. ah April and all its fickleness, the month that delivers perfect synoptics for winter cold fanatics, but all too late!10 points
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Wet overnight leaving a cool (9c currently) overcast day with just a few hints of blue sky towards the NW. Brisk west wind making this a definite two jacket (fleece + outer) day. Got to love finding abandoned roads in the middle of a forest.. Leading to the remains of a croft abandoned about 100yrs ago. Sad sight really considering the amount of work that was put into building the road and dry-stone walls.10 points
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Mid next week seems to be catching my eye on some recent output. Very low heights / pressure shown, much stronger sun strength, upper level cold pool giving some large lapse rates, and I think that could be quite conducive to some April style showers and even some storms popping off. Still a while away at this stage but a sub 960mb low I would have thought would be record breaking a few days from April if it reaches somewhere into Ireland or Wales.10 points
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Sherry Is there any basis for the idea that this pattern will just continue indefinitely, other than simply that it's "been going on a long time already"? The last several years have predominantly comprised of flips/shifts between prolonged periods of wetter and cloudier, and drier and sunnier. So, I don't see why this current period would be any exception, even if it is more protracted than the previous cloudier and wetter period (in 2021 to early 2022). During the protracted dry and sunny period in 2022 to early 2023, I remember many people saying that "this is now the norm" and that it's what climate change "has in store for us". It felt like we truly had a new type of British climate. Now, it's the flipside to that, and it equally feels like a new type of climate.10 points
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No posts in 7 hours, sense many are unenthused with what the models are currently showing, and feeling disappointed with easter now firmly coming into view ( if wanting predominantly dry conditions). No sugar coating things, Easter 24 unlikely to go down as memorable from either a heat or cold perspective. Its all just a bit underwhelming. Low pressure ruling the roost right through into April..Not a washout every day, some decent spells of dry weather possibly Sat and Sunday, but may be quite cloudy and breezy with it. Will firm up more tomorrow. Into April, heights to the NW but also a signal for heights to our SE, with the trough squeezed through the UK again, back to square one more slow moving low pressure from the SW, need a shake up..9 points
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It's March so not expecting MCS's and spectacular electrical displays but some prospects for thunderstorms/thundery showers over the next few days. Tomorrow looks to be western areas mainly. From Thursday onwards the risk probably more widespread. I know we really don't need any more rain but still nice to see thundery weather in the forecast.9 points
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A little snow in our garden this morning but wet and patchy. Snow line on the hills around Alford looked to be about 300m, quite white above 400m.9 points
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edinburgh_1992 Not heavy here either but has been sleeting here at low levels for the last couple of hours despite the heaviest precipitation being offshore. Currently sleeting at1.8C. Inland snow lying down to around 200 mtrs and falling to lower. Here is the A 822 currently north of Crieff at just over 200 mtrs asl. edit. Not far off snow here now.9 points
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As already said, rain throughout the day and a generally depressing feel to things. Whether things will buck up for Easter is still to be decided but after the gloom of the last few months, it’s never been more wanted.9 points
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Pretty nice day here today, warm in the sun, buds everywhere and the gorse flowering (reminds me of home in Cornwall). We're off to do a bit of the west highland way over the weekend. Bridge of Orchy to Fort William. Initially we were going to wild camp, but I chickened out so now staying in a cabin at Glencoe and in an inn at Kinlochleven. Carrying our own bags though. Hoping to do the full route at some point, will definitely camp then, before I get too old and stiff.9 points
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I really just want a high pressure system on top of the UK for a week. It's been months!!9 points
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Had Worse We worry up here about collapsed and silted drains under farmland, now much worse due to the increasing rain --- there's no end to the expensive maintenance. It's an endless challenge like painting the Forth Bridge. But what a responsibilty maintaining thousands of miles of railway track in good order to keep the public safe. There's now all sorts of monitoring kit to find potential voids under rail track. Try Googling-- void detection railways. However if no-one properly understands the amont of rain that has fallen and the drainage routes and is prepared to do some investigation with a spade -- then dangerous problems will reoccur. Sometimes new building developments add to surface outflow and increase uncetainty for places lower down. Yet more to detect. Anyway - Today is a drying day. Cold wind, but doing some good and reducing surface slutch. Some sun and only the odd very brief shower. Curent temp 6,1C9 points