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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/02/19 in all areas

  1. 37 points
    As winter begins to wain we must remind outselves 'peak' cold availability from the N/NE/E is still on tap for another 3-4 weeks- so although the suns height does temper any daytime low maxima - we are still in the game. Im drawn to the nice sight of the PV stretched south into Scandi around day 9 & this should continue to be out focus if we believe 18/19 can squeeze another cold spell - 06z was close but no cigar....
  2. 22 points
    Good morning gang, im going up the wood shed with me sausage sandwiches brown sauce .going to do what i did this time last year , so expect big changes in the charts later today ,ecm will show a stonking northern block at 192 hrs ,gfs later today will smell the Coffee ,met office will mention wide spread snowfall ,and the express will have 8 pages of Snow hell , jack daws are all flocking today ,squirrels are barricading their homes with straw ,help iv run out of prozack .I do like the ecm at 10 days , repeat 100 times , and here is the weather forecast , change expected soon ,cheers gang STellas all round .
  3. 20 points
    I really can't understand some of the negative comments on this thread, yet again this morning. Ok, so the Old GFS, not great. But the GFS (Para), shows this and actually they're not a million miles, apart!! 00z ECM at t240, continuing on from last night's 12z run. Core of heights surging N.E., towards Scandinavia. Signs of trough disruption, out to our S.W. I certainly wouldn't describe these runs, as dreadful/hideous. A little OTT, I think!! Regards, Tom.
  4. 17 points
    Got to disagree a bit with that. This winter without doubt has been a fail - but not just for teleconnections. It was a fail for the model forecasting industry too, most especially in our neck of the woods for the UKMO....and I suspect you dont see them as teleconnective forecasters. Your reading of "overarching authority" I would take as a theory of where the signals appear to be taking us. This is not certainty - it is a reading of signals. Those who take them as certainty are either irritated by the attempt in the first place (though I've never been able to work out why anyone would be irritated with another person's attempt to make sense of a very complex process and put out a forecast on a weather site) or have no faith in our ability to try and make sense of the process....and this is usually very strongly flagged by those posters being the ones who choose never to make an attempt at a forecast at more than about 10 days' range. I have absolutely no problem with that - there is a lot of sense in sticking to what can be reasonably seen as falling within a window of reasonable model accuracy, but where I do have an issue is when those characters then choose to pour cold water on the attempts of others to make sense of the longer term.....particularly given that the critic tends to stay within the conservative window of accuracy and then pour scorn on those who are trying to work further ahead. That's just bad from every angle - humanity would have made next to no process throughout history if progress were left to those with that kind of mindset. "Extenuating circumstance"? - is that just code for another unforeseen factor? Surely it must be....and by its very definition that falls, once again, within the envelope of reading signals. Not sure what point you are trying to make here other than suggesting that teleconnective forecasting ignores the bits that disagree with the "theory" - whatever theory for a season that might be. No - certainly dont agree with that. All signals are valid and I'm sure we are going to learn a lot from this season. Furtado put out an excellent tweet over the weekend on exactly this topic. Test and observe. Isnt that science? And "if revisited at all" - you are just being negative here. You know very well there have been papers produced over the last 20 years on a range of forecasting developments, from solar impacts to vortex disruption - and all of these were seen as fringe science prior to investigation. I remember being on weather forums when low solar impacts were chuckled at by serious posters....and then peer reviewed literature silenced them. The same to an extent has happened with vortex disruption - and now we are wrestling with developments in our understanding of ozone circulation, different types of split, QBO phase etc etc. None of these are factors that are not revisited. Quite the opposite. You are right that certainty is limited. But I'd rather push the boundaries of that limitation rather than not even try.
  5. 16 points
    Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell. Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks. After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.
  6. 16 points
    I hope not......that would be 16th June
  7. 14 points
  8. 14 points
    Was it though? Clearly this winter has shown that just one variable i.e SSW isn't the sole reason for a cold spell in the UK. The bitter E,ly last winter would of been caused by other variables being favourable. I shall repeat what I said at the beginning of this winter and have said for several years now. The reason why we cannot forecast using Teleconnections is because we do not fully understand them and more importantly how they interact with each other. You then have the added complication of the UK being a tiny Island. Obviously this doesn't mean members should give up trying. However if members want a more stress free model viewing next winter then they should take background signals with a pinch of salt until this promise appears at +144. I started this winter with a new approach of only viewing to +144 with a glancing look at the ECM to +240. However I admit the temptation of looking at GFS +384 was too much when promising charts failed to appear within the reliable timeframe.
  9. 13 points
    But the point is that some posters seem to arrogantly assume, once they have pushed the boundaries of this limitation that their forecast of, say, pressure distribution in the Atlantic and western Europe brooks no argument. The clue often is when a post starts, or includes, statements such as "the models are not picking up the signals" which patently assumes that the posters knows with certainty what the correct signals are Of course pushing the boundaries is fine and anyone doing so should be applauder but a little humility and a little less dogmatic assumption wouldn't go amiss.
  10. 12 points
    Can't complain about this winter had snow fix recently and glad many others did too, had a lot of it 27cm. Just happy to get one mega fall . More would be good but nice to have seen some.
  11. 12 points
    on my return from the wood shed i had a look at the GFS , well certainly a big improvement and lets hope that continues . I always feel that if it turns very mild with no hope ,then perhaps something is lurking around the corner ,a STraw clutch perhaps , but certainly on the 12th of February i for one am still up for the Hunt for cold .still awaiting Exeters update ,so i can try and read between the lines . Thanks again for all those that contribute to this great forum ,let the Hunt resume ,cheers .
  12. 12 points
    Glencoe yesterday before the mild weather sets in 🙂
  13. 12 points
    No change on my musings from last night ....ec46 week 3 at 10pm will be watched for the scandi sausage and undercut
  14. 12 points
    Headed over to Dufftown this morning via Cabrach and winter definitely still in play up there, everything looking lovely in its winter coat. Glad to have winter tyres on, still some hard packed snow in places on the road. Temperature there hovering just below 0c but up to a balmy 5c in Dufftown itself. Light winds and sunny skies making for another lovely winters day.
  15. 12 points
    Yes, as I said a couple of weeks ago (and still hold the belief), we are ascending into an early spring. I fear this could be a drought year in all honesty, we've seen pretty much the same pattern dominate our weather for the best part of a year now- namely a repeated nosing in of the Azores HP which is sometimes getting to our E and pumping up warm S'lys and SW'lys. Not sure what changes the foundations over the next few months to take us more profoundly towards a -AO/-NAO regime. Mid latitude HP is ruling the roost our side of the hemisphere. The upshot being, little rainfall and increasingly hot temperatures could be on the menu over the next few months.
  16. 11 points
    Not this again!!!! - They are both Gavins, they both have Netweather accounts, they both have T.W.O accounts, Summer Sun and Gavin P on here, Gavin D and Gavin P on TWO, Gavin P (not Summer Sun) is the guy who (could call him semi-pro as he does it for a living now) who does video forecasts.
  17. 11 points
    Could this be our moment? The thing we've spent the last three-months hoping for?
  18. 11 points
    When all else fails,pub run included,I bring you all hope... That Bastian of British journalistic standard The Daily star front page tonight. If the ECM 240hrs had a headline maker this winter it would be the Daily Star.
  19. 11 points
    On it's way... SSW winds🤣
  20. 11 points
    If I find out who it is that's taken all our cigars this winter I'll give them a piece of my mind, and trust me, it wont be pleasant!
  21. 11 points
    Summer Sun is one of the most consistent posters in the model thread, his posts nearly always contain charts and useful information. Summer sun will still be making contributions in the model thread when most of us have packed in for the summer, the idea that he cant mention warm temperatures is laughable. At some point the title of the forum will change to something about spring......will every poster mentioning cold charts be told to go somewhere else then?
  22. 11 points
    Chance of an isolated 15c later in the week subject to cloud cover it's certainly unlikely we'll see daily records go but maybe an outside chance on Saturday
  23. 10 points
    Fitting last day of winter!! FV3 T384:
  24. 10 points
    12z gefs... It's a funny old game 😂
  25. 10 points
    It’s like saying “Why is Barbados getting all our summer weather year after year”.
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