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  1. 68 points
    Leaked express headline for tomorrow. #sorrynotsorry
  2. 66 points
    Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening. I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs. If you are commenting beyond T+120-144, and in this fairly volatile state of the northern atmosphere perhaps even near T+00 then you MUST compare like with like. It is way too far ahead to use the argument that the run has the most up to date data and therefore must be more accurate. It does not hold, believe me, sorry to be a bit dogmatic but 20+ years of forecasting makes me feel you may just bear with me over that. Come on I posted this morning about the overall upper air signals, yes the run to run of the models may well vary but the cold is here for 2 weeks possibly longer. To be sure of what values in each of our back gardens or even more so will it snow/when/how much then be realistic. Models 2x or 4x daily will NOT be accurate for temperature before about T+72 and for ppn of whatever type before T+48 and sometimes not even T+12. If you can accept these restrictions life on here can be enjoyable and useful for learning for us all with no loss of enjoyment. Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.
  3. 56 points
    Nope - that isn't what I would ask because an answer sits already within your first sentence. If you don't know anything about the background signals that are regularly discussed then it might be as well not to risk suggesting they are a waste of time. Dark Arts - no. If it was dark arts then we wouldn't even have NWP because science wouldn't apply either. There are a lot of helpful guides on this site, and a number of places you could go to begin growing an understanding of what drives the atmosphere, and then your contributions would be more useful. Either you are genuinely interested in what is going on and are frustrated and not being able to explain/understand the processes, or you are here to act as a deliberate lightning conductor for the frustrations that some are feeling right now - and that is an approach which is unhelpful. Whichever it is it seems a huge waste of time, because non-engagement with the processes means intellectual stagnation or attempting to magnify forum frustration means marginalisation from the real debate. Neither approach will take you anywhere.
  4. 55 points
  5. 52 points
    Interesting morning and really encouraging IMO in terms of the set of model suites we were looking at on Thursday and Friday being chipped away at then collapsing into something else late Friday into Saturday morning. Given the up close review of each run, and I get that, it is a time where the deck remains stacked in our favour. However, given the long lead on the SSW, the count down to it happening, the displacement and then elongation in time of the SSW via the vortex split. I think this has generated fatigue, it's certainly been a long watch! The AO profile overall, whilst an output vs. a driver shows the trend and this looks solid as Jan ends, this is supported by both the Strat Temp Anoms and NAM 'paint drip'. There have been hints of the AO dropping to -3 and 04 SD, without 'fully' getting there. I think it is an eventuality vs a jam tomorrow. Indeed that phrase is getting used a lot, to contextualise - the after effects of an SSW 'will be' jam tomorrow given the lead times for imprints on the atmosphere.. AAM and GWO dynamics illustrated below, relative AAM courtesy of torque activity, gives a steer on expecting to see blocking regimes manifest, as does the SSW, so a double ingredient here. From this morning's GFS we can see from around Day 9 both the AO starting to drop again and also blocking coming online over Greenland, c 26th is where the trend commences to elevate heights here, and there is a lot of energy firing towards Nuuk to start causing the Arctic profile to shuffle. ECM goes back to something akin to the earlier ENS and just needs some sharper inflection to do similar damage and mirror it's weeklies. I would say the US Storm, impacts on the jet, careering into the NE Canadian portion of the vortex as we all have seen collapsing the nirvana charts on offer at the end of last week has played through the system now, models catching onto again the true sense of direction. That wave guide remains, the signals for HLB remains, the down welling remains, the AO tendency remains, the AAM increase is there. Whilst the hyperbole of no definitive easterly programming from 210 down to 0 hrs created despondency, there is a lot that remains bloody good for - the end of January with a ton of winter left.
  6. 51 points
    Yawn, another non-ice-age type run and the same people acting in the same childish way again. It'd be a shame to stop people posting in here, but the petulant kids act and the petty bickering really needs to stop, it's tiresome.
  7. 51 points
    Afternoon All- Im really suprised that noone has picked up on the UKMO 144- Heights to the NE & a diving jet usually spells Easterly ( around 168 )
  8. 50 points
    Quick summary from me. Appears to me the models were too quick in removing an E,ly and we shall see an E,ly flow albeit brief and nothing noteworthy. Thereafter a brief warm up which is clearly shown on the 0Z GEFS ensembles. A very quick return to a N,ly flow and thereafter a strong signal that low pressure will finally sink SE and we shall be in a NE/E,ly flow. Around end of the month/start of Feb a strong signal that HLB will keep the UK in a cold/very cold NE/E,ly flow. So mostly cold but any significant cold/snowy spell remains towards end of the month/early Feb. I shall finally add that exactly a year ago today on my birthday I was in intensive care and nearly died from Pneumonia. I no longer get so excited at the high and lows of following the models because I realised there is far more important things than snow!
  9. 50 points
    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before! Anyway The ECMWF-GFS this morning Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe. The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK. So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out. The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic? With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that. So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right. Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  10. 49 points
    Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day 🙂 The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.
  11. 46 points
  12. 45 points
    Long post coming - sorry. Just for fun - let's use JMA today for a bit of analysis given the good record back in Feb 18. Your interpretation seems a bit odd given the truth of the date, and the pattern we are seeing evolve. Tuesday first of all. While 850s are low enough for snow, just looking at the flow will tell you here that thicknesses are going to be on the wrong side of the line for significant snow. For anywhere away from high ground this will be a cold rain, maybe sleet, event. In essence the trough has not dropped steeply enough to be termed a slider and there is little to no flow off the continent to pull cold, dry air into the mix. A bit disappointing, but it was always one of the options given the angle of attack. But I think @chionomaniac hit the nail on the head when he talked about a repeating pattern. I assume everyone is now coming around to the likely evolution of 2-3 days of dry and benign weather at the end of the week once the trough drops into place. This always seemed a decent probability given the proximity of the block to the west and the uncertainty surrounding speed of transition to the next pattern phase. Sometimes its good to go back through posts and retrace your own steps a bit on the rollercoaster journey...and from a personal standpoint (like many) I got carried away with the stellar charts that appeared pre Saturday. However back on Wednesday I posted this - "So - the trough drops giving some snow somewhere... then maybe a more stagnant day or 3 at the back end of the week (but still cold) as the pattern settles"....and that was probably a decent gut feeling at a week's range that I should have stuck to. Still - easy to get carried away when the hunt gets hot! But as the pattern waxes and wanes all roads are still leading in the same direction regardless of grumpiness about the disappointing trend of Weds/Thurs of this week. By Friday the amplification process gets its skates on, and the transition of the ridge becomes apparent with heights pouring from atlantic to scandy The overnight highest performing ECM backs up this view, though notice the further eastwards progression of a system running over the top...reducing the ability of pressure transfer within that 24 hour window. However the end product by Sunday is pretty much the same - JMA for Sunday (admittedly yesterday's 12z) sees the trough drop back through the UK once again with block to the west and strong ridging over Russia Less strong block to the east from ECM but same basic setup And GEM (note - as good as ECM at 192 in Dec 2108 on verification stats) on the same page also though the trough is much less pronounced Finally GFS - same again though heights over Russa are quite weak in comparson So - if we are looking for the next "certainty" in terms of pattern beyond the frustration of the failed easterly this week then we can perhaps look for another cold trough on Sunday 27th (Note - not even February yet!!) to drop in....and maybe this time more mature SSW impacts and move of MJO closer to favoured phases will help it stick with heights to the north. Ensembles certainly say YES. EPS and GEFS below for 3 days later (Weds 30th) all in line for heights increasing after this second slider/drop of trough north to south What's not to like???????
  13. 45 points
    Is there really any need for the oneupmanship in here, it's not a competition.
  14. 44 points
    OUTLOOK: Snow or rain in cold or mild east, north or west winds, temperatures between record lows and record highs, could clear for sunshine and frosts, otherwise very mild nights with fog. Low UV index.
  15. 42 points
    Let's hope this isn't the winning photo of Winter 2019!
  16. 42 points
    🗣️ I've just heard we're going back in. Last time they told us it would be easy, that there would be little opposition to the advance West, but they had forces waiting for us. We took casualties, lost some good people, but now we are ready and their forces depleted. Strap in boys and girls, it s time for some payback. 🐻
  17. 41 points
    Now I have more time I shall give you some examples of why im delighted with the output. I shall also explain why the models were wrong at +72 to +96 and how they have changed for the better. First of all the low below is now heading SE. A few days ago the models did the usual of being reluctant to send this SE. This is a typical bias of the models when a low pressure comes up against a high pressure in this locality. The presence of this high pressure is important further along. The next low is the trigger because this is also heading SE. As it does so pressure rises to our N and is reinforced by the high pressure to our NE. The end result is more of a NE,ly than E,ly at this stage and it depends how far S the low goes. The SLP ensembles for Iceland/Oslo say it all really compared to a few days ago. Only a few days ago the Iceland SLP mean was only 1008mb and now stands 1022mb and is likely to become 1030mb. The drop on the 29th is when the low pressure moves SE. Oslo SLP is even more impressive increasing to 1030mb with solid agreement except GEFS control at the end. Only caution I would advise is whether the GFS is over doing the blocking and if the low does not head far enough SE. At this stage im not concerned. All of this is backed with the Cambs ensembles at -7C!
  18. 39 points
    Alice was told that there wasn't much Jam left in the Jam Jar, and when she wanted her Jam today was disappointed to find out this was all that was left.. Thankfully Alice was patient and found this hiding down the back of the ECM.
  19. 39 points
    The mighty ICON slayed by the UKMO.. @The Eagle has landed
  20. 38 points
    I think I agree with that. Given that patterns tend to ebb and flow a bit (I’m sure a physicist somewhere could explain the process through waves...but for a numptly like me I just observe...) it seems highly likely that the long wave pattern we are moving into will prompt another attempt at the NW block very soon. I don’t think the old model thread covered itself in glory today. Disappointing runs for sure - but if you remove the op run hype of the previous day solid predictions from technical posters of the pattern for the end of the week were conspicuous by their absence, and the reason was simple: nothing from Wednesday onwards ever looked nailed on. I’m not sure why people hang on individual runs so much and lose sight of forcings and hemispheric pattern....but it has been the case all along that the forcings of the SSW and Pacific have been clear to see, but equally clearly timings have been an issue. Can interested amateurs hope to get timings right when even the Met, with their supercomputer and dedicated professional staff, have also struggled this season....with the approach of colder conditions consistently put back? I think not. The droppng of the trough into Europe midweek was the only feature of the pattern change that was “easy” (comparatively) to spot at around the 192 range but the specific direction of travel after that has been hazy. However let’s be clear. Firstly, as I tried to show last night, models all have their frailties and ECM is not king all of the time. On that basis take the full suite we have available and never right any off entirely. Taking next week as the focus there remains a huge amount of uncertainty as to what happens once heights over Europe have lowered, and while a raging easterly now looks unlikely for Thurs/Friday this doesn’t mean an easterly is out the question soon after. Secondly - and related to this - ensembles are still good, and if you cycle back to the wise words of John H earlier today the prognosis remains good. Thirdly the drivers that a few people today have tried to knock (and if we’d think we can’t improve our weather understanding then why are we here....hence such posts seem extremely odd to me) are still here and approaching peak impact. If an easterly is lost for Thurs/Fri then we move on to the next opportunity, somewhat disappointed but still optimistic given those drivers. And lastly - some people may get a good snow event on Tues/Weds....an event we were able to signpost at around a week and should have people pleased!!! Sitting in the SW I’m a bit envious of those in the midlands and north who may cash in....good luck to you all. Finally - good points have been made today about probability. Has to be true. We are never dealing in certainties when looking at forecasting beyond 72 hours ( and often at considerably less....) and it is worth reflecting on this. Probability means that outside chances can happen. And huge favourites don’t always come out on top. Reflect on that. As one fellow Scottish Rugby fan said earlier - bloody good job too. If the outlier and the underdog was automatically doomed the world would be an extremely dull place. So as we are all weather enthusiasts in here, perhaps we should cling to the understanding that hunting snow is a long odds game in the UK and be comfortable with that, or go find another hobby.
  21. 38 points
    One last post from me- Since 2012 I have stuck with the UKMO model as its prone to least volatility- Add to that in 2013 & 'most' slider scenarios it had a grip on proceedings whilst GFS mainly but ECM also swung around - At 96-120 I can count on my fingers & thumbs the amount of times UKMOs got it wrong, however ECM op 96-144 has been countless times both in to much blocking & also to much zonality bias - IE large swings- My form horse is the UKMO with others falling into line this eve... A 3/4 way house to the amplified solution & the energy will split in the atlantic with the shortwave spoiler heading towards Portugal..
  22. 37 points
    Ha - I'm on a sequential posting roll..... How close is this to lighting the fuse?
  23. 37 points
    Interesting. If drivers are nothing other than noise, then what in your opinion drives the weather? And if you see nothing but noise, then what is your interest on this forum? There are a few in here who have differing views on the relative significance of specific factors, but all share a common desire to try and make sense of the patterns we get via interpretation of drivers. Where do you sit?
  24. 36 points
    Uppers are marginal 🤔😍
  25. 36 points
    See my previous posts because the 12Z GEM is exactly what I have been referring to. Brace yourselves as we're about to set off on the rollercoaster again!
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