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Morning all, further on from the above post, most of the main models now showing some agreement almost in the reliable time span of a gradual transition to lower temperatures into NW Europe during the first week of November, especially the British Isles. Longer term charts from the GFS model also showing a Mid North Atlantic block pattern to show its hand with a diving jet into NW Europe. Obviously the strength of the block will dictate how long any developing cold spell will last. However, a rather unusually set of charts being shown out past 10 days. The block neither classic diffluent or Omega in positioning, so it will be with interest how the models will evolve going forward more into November. C17 points
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Signal for a notable shift in the base state now moving into the reliable.. we exchange the predominantly mild pattern which has been locked in for weeks for something colder, the UK moves to the north side of the polar front as the jet takes a nosedive south. The coming weekend now looking quite chilly in the north with the base of the Atlantic trough lying over southern Britain. Heights forecast to build strongly through mid Atlantic held in by warm air advection west side of Greenland. End result a chilly NW airstream, troughs and fronts aligned on a NW-SE trajectory. Nothing particularly cold but will feel notably cold compared to recent weeks. Wintry precipitation for higher ground in the north and conditions ripe for fog and frost in any clear breaks. We are not there yet but the models have held form on this evolution for days now and I can't see the direction changing. November looks like starting on a chilly note. Just as the clocks go back, many will be reaching for winter wardrobe.15 points
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If today's GFS 06Z is right, things could well be about to change. Even a little freezing fog might turn up too. Not that I miss all those early 1960s pea-soupers:9 points
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I agreed to look back in a week at my previous forecast and update you on it and that's what I will do. I would just like to quickly mention my post yesterday in reply to @Kirkcaldy Weather question in the run up to Winter thread. The question as such 'I will start a seperate thread for the atmospheric River event and not sure if there is a link to colder winters or if it's just a coincidence but interesting to see those 2 years noted' I had a quick look at the 1962 Winter and found a slight link 'I wouldn't be surprised if there is a sort of link if you could say that. This would indicate in my veiw a more stronger PV than usual such as I think the case was in those years. Charts from 1962 December look eerily similar to now. Then look what happened A strong Arctic plunge Hopefully this is a sign for this Winter. ' What I noticed was the fact that not only was there a low located in almost in the exact same position as this low is now. There was also a link on which the PV outbalanced the Atlantic high which usually has such a profound effect on Autumn' s which we seem to be having now. As was said earlier this week a split PV looks possible and I don't pretend to be an expert but it seems to me like that could be a force this Winter for the good if you are a snow lover. Right now there are particular links between these charts and those if 1962. Whether you call it a wave pattern or something else, you cannot sent that there is a particular pattern setting up. This imo makes it a little bit easier in the long run cutting down the number of different possibilities as to what could happen. As we continue looking at the 0Z here's more delving into the run A couple things that I said last week about this certain type of setup 'In my opinion this could become a fantastic Winter with a bit of luck, this depends on the movement of that Greenland low at around 168 hours, the movement of the Atlantic High at that time as well. A weakening high means a good winter and I'd give it a good chance of giving snow to a lot of people, without that weakening we could be stuck In this system for a while of in and outs of lows and highs. So to summarise my predictions on just two of these stages we have I predict that this Winter will be very good but only if a couple things are true 1)There will be a strong Greenland low coinciding with the Atlantic wave 2)When that happens the low moves its position towards the UK 3)As timing is everything on this run, this happens just as the Atlantic is about to impact Britian 4)When that happens the low pushes it out of the way' Well we're now at the 168 hours mark right now and the low over Greenland has in fact strengthened but so has the Atlantic high. It really is getting to crunch time now for my predictions. The evolution over the next week will be interesting to watch, I'll have my eyes firmly focused on the Atlantic, we're now pretty likely to see a small splitting PV in my honest opinion. Right now we have the intense low pushing further into the Atlantic than I anticipated which brings me to think if that can bring down the splitting PV then surely the Canadian high which troubled the runs this whole week then surely that will help weaken it and if that happens then we will not have to rely on that Greenland low, this wave pattern could in fact help us much further and temporarily get us out of this mixed weather. So right now the Greenland low will indirectly affect our future by weakening the Atlantic, it'll most likely go through once but as it does it COULD bring down part of the PV as I alluded to in my former post. The high doesn't exactly weaken but as we can see it is pushed lower and lower as the low movement and the Jet Stream coincide perfectly for Winter lovers like me. This is what we need for the stars to align for a good November with snow perhaps further south than Scotland, aprroaching the Midlands if we get lucky and these things often end up in a cycle lasting often a couple months so hopefully this doesn't effect mid-Winter in a bad way which I don't think it will even if it does come off. Next up is to look at the anomalies as these help making these decisions Temporarily the colder area seems to take away a lot of the warmer areas possibility for impact, as we get further into this week we will have to see what happens with that red hot area over Canada which pushes south in this run but looking at the anomalies it still has an impact even when it looks like it won't have any impact at all. This is all looking far out and that is why I'm not too worried right now, like I said last week 168 hours is probably the furthest you could look at for anything really close to reality, it's around the last area where the agreement and outcome are both above 50% on average. This seems pretty conclusive to me that we will have a battle between high and low but how are we supposed to know which will win here. For the cold to win we will have to have the strengthening low over Greenland. Should that happen then the high could split and weaken therfore allowing the PV to win this battle however on the other hand we could also see the split stop this happening altogether. Where the split is most likely to happen is whay will ultimately decide our fate as I look into it further. This is where I will first look at the 6Z Far out in the 6Z it seems that the original split will be further out than I thought it would be which takes me back to looking further into what it could be. Let's look at the 6Z at 168 hours The 6Z continues the battle and it doesn't look like we're going to get a conclusion soon, I think it's best if I look further into this later on this week. Here's what I think at the moment Right now there is a lot riding on the battle across the Atlantic, should the low backing behind Greenland nip the Canadian high that always seems to be theree in Autumn stopping Winter on the bus then we could see that happen. There is a lot more riding in this, this year than there has been for many years. This time however it is not a fantasy looking at this and hoping, there is a decent chance well above the usual that a split PV could mean that there is a collapse which would stop the Atlantic interfering finally. I did not go into this much depth last week as I felt it was a lot simpler but I didn't notice the Canadian high or I dissmised it. Last week I did not go into things as I should have but there is a lot that has remained the same and that is why I am still going to look at this and not dismiss it. The battle has a pretty hgih cjancew of being won by the low and I'm not kidding myself here. Having researched a bit more on this the fact that it was so similar to 1962 surprised me, not only that but what was alluded to in that tweet about now also having happened in 2009, we all know what happened early 2010. This post may not be conclusive but we can never be conclusive this early before Winter so this is about as conclusive as I can get when writing a post about the next few months, a lot of id's and but's but I see an opportunity for the low to win over the high and it only needs 1 slight change then we could see a decent early Winter. I have proof read it but there may still be a lot of spelling errors and it may be confusing but this is as Un-confusing, if that's a word, as I could make it Xander7 points
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This is what I like to see, discussion about weather. Our young eagle is a keen and fast learner and there are many on here who can actively engage in adult conversation and provide good leads/advice that in the whole interaction allows a middle aged weather novice like me a chance to learn. Keep it up.6 points
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Yep the ECM 12z operational gets there in the end although it’s one of those typically British blink and you miss it topplers but beggars can’t be choosers…actually the mean does seem more robust…in any case, it’s still autumn for another 5 weeks.. still, it’s good to see a chance of arctic incursions before winter!!5 points
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For once we haven't got a shield/dome/shadow from precipitation coming up from the South West...if anything it's getting a little kick as it comes up to higher ground north and north east of Manchester. Nothing of deluge proportions but just enough to laugh in your face for even considering doing anything meaningful outdoors.5 points
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However, across Cheshire, we had showery rain for much of the morning, giving way to partly cloudy, partly blue skies this afternoon, with a bit of a breeze to temper the temperatures.4 points
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Came to post today's Masie, which after the last week is very mergh... But before that I still have no access to the NSIDC data, and the snow looks more interesting today across the North.. It just displays a home page that has nothing on it apart from USNIC. Did you have to or are you already registered?. By the way from your maps above the sea ice now looks identical to me to 2010...... One can but hope... Masie today an increase (breather?) of just (+21K), to a total of 7,748K Km2).. Baffin (-7K) and CAA (-8K) again struggled. All other areas recorded no real change except for Kara (+18K), which is now in high speed re-freeze mode. One thing that has caught my eye today though is the Arctic DMI average 80 degrees temperatures. (Produced from ECM data). These have dropped by a large 3C in the last couple days. In actual fact from 258.9K to 255.8K (-15C to -18C). I had been expecting a fall but this is quite large by current standards. (By the way there is still no change in the Arctic anomaly data though, which is still at +2.0C). I have noticed in the past that large increases in ice extent seems to encourage further temperature falls. Looking at Climate Re-analyser (GFS), I can see that the major change is in the area of ESS/ Laptev/ Chukchi. These are the areas that have 'suffered' the large sea ice increases (and also temperature part falls) recently. They are still higher than the rest of the Arctic, but have cooled by quite a bit. Now I understand that the water vapour will stop any rapid drop in 2meter temperatures, and that this seems to be the reason for it. The problem I have though is that looking ahead to the 3day and particularly the 10days outlook profile ---- We can still see the same 'warmth' profile. This despite the fact that all of Laptev and ESS will be iced shortly as will most of Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi, and hence I believe will drop to similar temperatures to the rest of the pack at that point. It would appear, therefore that the outlook forecast temperature maps do not take any updated 'forecast' for the ice outlook. To check this out it would need to see the outlook for the snow and ice map for 10 days time. But none is produced!!!!. This is clearly yet another symbiosis situation of which causes which. Does the ice formation cause a temperature drop due to less moisture (which keeps the temps up) OR has the 'new found' cold just caused the ice to freeze? It does seem to lead to this apparent symptom of sudden drops in temperatures forecast only after the sea freezes over. I will have to check again in the Spring when refreeze takes place to verify. MIA -4 points
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Do I even look like I care that my pathetic team, Tottering Hotspur lost yet again?.. ..anyway, as long as we have perturbations like this, I will be happy.. I’m oozing sauce!!..any sad Spurs fan familiar with YouTube will know what I mean blud..fam..etc..etc..ps.. why does nuno always have his arms folded? .. … !4 points
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For sure the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean longer term is getting itself into a good position for coldies with the trough transferring further to the NE enabling colder air to spill south in its wake?!..broad brush but it’s what’s showing currently..nobody on here wants an early blast of proper cold more than me? …4 points
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In contrast, a largely dry day here so far, mostly cloudy, but all the showers are being eaten up by the Welsh Mountains as they move up from the SW. Another breezy day.4 points
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All change, on today's GFS 00Z. Although, not a very appealing change, unless you like cold drizzle: Too soon for snow but soon enough to be a nuisance!4 points
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Morning all Gefs ensembles heading steadily down from beginning of November temperature wise, could be a quick culture shock to the system after such a long mild spell.4 points
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Temperature currently 12.8c, overnight low was -0.6c, daytime high of 12.9c and it’s hovered between that and 11.4 since around midday. Wind has been getting up and predominantly coming from a north westerly direction, I suspect the trees may shed some leaves by daylight. It was a pleasant day for walking the dogs, not that I went far as three are a bit too much to handle on my own, especially when they all choose to go in different directions.4 points
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I think there’s a 60 yr cycle re Atlantisation and it ended in 2019, and we will see a rapid ice recovery over next decade. Maybe we see this starting to pan out….maybe. I think we are seeing signs of serious cold pooling early on and it spilling into the northern continents….something to watch imo BFTP4 points
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Hey, nae bother, Eagle Eye, you'd nae be the first, or the last, person on here to think that a broad similarity to 1962 (in any month from September to December) means that this year will be THE ONE!4 points
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A good post in its entirety. However, I think a little realism is also needed.. The movement of an LP around Greenland & Atlantic HP at a timeframe of 168 hours will not dictate our weather in winter.4 points
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An unpleasant week ahead for Lake District. Mid-week looking very wet and very mild, moisture leaden SW airstream.. frontal system becoming unstuck. These are the type of synoptics that result in flooding, similiar to Nov 2019 and Dec 2015... thankfully the ground is not as saturated as then, and the forecasted amounts won't reach those levels. Looking forward to the weekend, and seeing thre trough finally kicked eastwards!3 points
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After dodging all the showers most of today, finally had the briefest of heavy showers about 30 mins ago but was a blink and you miss it type affair. It has turned out to be two very useable days for outdoor activities here this weekend. Looks like we have fared better than other parts of the region today.3 points
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For sure it is flatter than the 6z but it’s probably not game over for a colder early November based on this run and in any case, this run isn’t completed yet which is one of the reasons I don’t usually comment on runs until they are completed!3 points
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In october of last year we saw a large area of too warm water in the Northern Pacific. This year it seems this will be less likely. [url]https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2020/winterverwachting-1e-versie-vroege-winter[/url] Translation by google All eyes on La Niña At sea, the eyes are on the La Niña, which is developing along the equator in the sea area between Peru and Indonesia. This means that the seawater here will be colder than normal for a while. It looks to be a medium to strong La Niña, peaking in the middle of winter. Such a La Niña comes in the fall with a negative NAO index in November, the month for which we now have the strongest evidence of high ocean pressure. Such a period can continue into December, but is often followed in high winter (January and February) - certainly if the La Niña does become strong - by a period with a positive NAO index. Something similar happened in 2010/2011 as well. After the cold December, the winter was over. If the La Niña is less strong than expected, those two months with a strongly positive NAO index will immediately be a lot less prominent on the map. Two other marine phenomena that attract attention are the warm seawater in the northern part of the Pacific and the warm seawater in the northwestern part of the Atlantic. [/b]Especially if the seawater in the northern part of the Pacific were to cool during the fall (and there are indications that this will happen, and it can go quickly) a combination is created that could cause the [b] negative NAO phase, as expected for November, also persists more easily in December[/b]. The chance of this seems to be 25 percent for the time being. --------- I find it difficult to estimate the extent to which there is still heat in the N-Pacific. A lot less, but there is still a large area with too warm seawater.3 points
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Sorry to hear that Fred, puts a lot of life’s ‘challenges’ into perspective.3 points
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Ice expansion is massive (big impact imo down the line…it’s really cold up there due to the end of 60 yr cycle…no more Atlantisation for 60 yrs approx…rapid ice recovery anticipated), anticipation of massive snow increases next couple of weeks.3 points
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Sure, I didn't mean to say that it'd dictate the whole of our Winter after all it is such a small proportion that I'm looking at there. What I meant by my post was in rather brief terms, the movement of one low when you take it down a lot of levels could have repercussions which could be good for snow lovers that would last further than the normal amount you would expect.3 points
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Yes the gfs 12z imo is a good run and has you say ties in with there thinking. Usual caveats but anyone disappointed "if it transpires" with that set up in November are going to have a long slog the coming winter3 points
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12z GFS operational run is great viewing. It gets the trough over most of the UK and all of Ireland by next weekend, 168h. Into a good looking northerly by day 10. Another low in from the northwest by day 13 - bonfire night This low brings some proper cold air in its wake by day 15, with lower than -5 uppers for almost all of the UK and Ireland.3 points
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Back to the grey darkness of earlier in the week.. intermittent drizzle and low cloud and never feeling particularly mild under a strong breeze. Out on the fells and it was preety miserable.. typical late October fayre.. history shows this time of year is usually unsettled and mild in the Lake District. Still waiting for those first crisp fine days of the season. Hopefully will arrive in the first half of November.. can't wait for the first lingering frost and walking on hard not squelch ground!3 points
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2009 was poor on that front and returned coldest winter since 78-79. Also to an extent 2010.2 points
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After my speculations above, more fact from Masie.. Good to see that USNIC is back. My access isn't back yet though. Masie today has another century increase despite some perhaps unexpected losses. Masie total extent is reported as 7,728K Km2. An increase of (+152K Km2). ESS lost (-7K) after its exceptional rises over the last couple of weeks. It is now nearly full. Beaufort (+6K) and Chukchi (+9K), both gained following yesterdays losses. Laptev (+42K) is still going for a rapid fill up, but, as I suggested yesterday may happen, Kara took up the running (+67K). Barents continued to expand with (+11K). Although Greenland fell (-7K), all the 'western' areas gained with Baffin (+26K), CAA (+26K), Hudson and CAB (both +2K). 2021 has now moved to the top of ice extent charts for the last 5 years on the DMI charts. Also worthy of note to browse the area graphs - https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots MIA2 points
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That’s a better route to getting the trough, firstly over us, and then to the east of the UK on the last couple of ECM operational runs, and support from the UKMO extended too. Indeed the UKMO is slightly firmer, with a slightly deeper low. 0z operational runs ECM / UKMO EU for 168h, getting us under the trough. The arrival of the somewhat colder air over us at 240h is again pleasingly coincident with the WAA pushing from Eastern Canada to Greenland, shown here on the ECM T850 and anomaly charts, which looks like a setup that could last for a fair few days with high pressure building in the North Atlantic. The 0z GFS with the same broad pattern, but with the advection into Greenland on a more southerly path, as a result pushing the colder air more quickly down to the Alps and bringing us under the influence of a succession of low pressure systems moving down from Greenland in the NW-SE oriented jet stream. This NW-SE orientation of the jet stream was indicated last weekend for the same period, which was at that time towards the end of the run, around days 13-16, the day 16 chart to 2 November shown here, although it was further south and stronger GFS op 0z today / last Sunday So even though it’s still a bit of a way off, a good deal of confidence in the general setup for repeated incursions of colder air from the northwest from about 7 to 8 days time appears very justified.2 points
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