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These are NOT typical autumn charts from the ECMWF 0z operational!…I think there’s a problem with the Gulf Stream!

Good evening, everyone. Here's a look at how the models are doing this evening, along with the average model outlook. The start of the week, Monday and Tuesday, is settled as high pressure flows over the UK, bringing sunshine and keeping temperatures warm. A deep area of low pressure passes to the south of Iceland on Tuesday, making it windy across the Northern half of the UK, particularly in exposed areas of Scotland, where gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. By Wednesday, the high pressure system will have moved away, allowing a deep area of low pressure near Iceland to impact our weather, making it wet and windy in the north, but warm and sunny in the south. The forecasts continue to show low pressure in control for Thursday through to Saturday, keeping things unsettled with some showers and windy weather on the way. The north will be more unsettled, while the south will be more settled. It will also become a little cooler in all areas. The extended forecast for the following week shows low pressure to the north west of Scotland moving across the northern part of the country on Sunday and Monday, with temperatures generally feeling much colder and more rain and wind on the way. Low pressure eventually weakens but is still in charge through Tuesday and Wednesday, so the changeable weather will continue but will be less unsettled and remaining on the colder side. This evening's amination, 20th Sept to 29th (average model outlook)

I’ll gladly take this nothingness as long as it stays this sunny.

Well, I think I'd prefer the GFS 06Z's take on things. Not that preference counts for anything! In the meantime, I'll wait for the Met Office's Week Ahead Forecast?

Theres no ambiguity here.... but id like to see tonights runs first to see if they confirm the weekends automated outlook. The ECM is overdoing the high to our East according to this chart, which shows a very very average late September outlook - unsettled, driven by a deep mean upper trough to our northwest. The 8-14 day chart suggests plenty of Northern blocking too, but troughing in control of the UK.

Credit to Mike for calling this one early as yet again the latest Ecm 0z run has further downgraded the unsettled outlook that it originally had set to commence this coming Thursday. It now has next Monday the 27th Sept earmarked as the date for when the Atlantic trough may make inroads from the northwest but I can well envisage this being further diluted closer to the actual date. I reckon we may have to sit out this overall benign autumn snoozefest for longer than originally expected.

Low of 5.1C here this morning nothing unusual but a sign that we're in getting into Autumn mode now.

Indeed another beautiful day here its meant to be turning unsettled later in the week with temperatures dipping slightly still around the 15c though compared with the 20c today

Just got back from a couple of weeks in sunny Ibiza. Raining again this morning in Eastern Alps. Have seen pictures of the snow on the higher mountains, mostly in the region bordering Swiss Alps. Nice to see though. Cold here this morning , only 6 c in village, a bit of a shock from the 30c in the Balerics ! See the sunshine continues in the continental NW England ! C C

Lots of chopping and changing over this weeks forecast….if you believe the ecm 00z today, then the unsettled weather never really makes it at all, and Saturday now ends up a decent day for many with some areas up to 22/23c again: A very dry week for the majority. Only exception far NE Scotland:

ECM 12Z ... autumn just can't get started, can it! Temperatures remaining in the 70sF throughout, September down here on the south coast will easily have been better than August as a summer month if tonight's run comes off.

There's nothing particularly nasty lurking in this morning's GFS 00Z woodshed: But there's too much scatter in the ensembles for my liking:

Autumnal chill this morning but warming up in sunshine 18-21c will feel nice yesterday was lovely but clouded up and felt chilly mid afternoon… had nice walk over the tops yesterday lunchtime nice to see first snows in Alps ️

A beautiful morning if a tad autumnal in terms of temperature.

Winter will soon be upon us ❄

8 am 23rd September 0z 6z 12z 25 September 8am 0z 6z 12z 27th September 2am 0z 6z 12z 29th September 2am 0z 6z 12z 1st October 8am 0z 6z 12z Not much changing thoughout the day except around the 29th which sets off a chain could be interesting to see around then. 1)Not expecting much snow in the long-term so don't get too excited to see snow just yet 2)We're nowhere near November yet so nobody can really say what this snow season is going to be like as far as i'm concerned 3)Typical for Autumn as far as i'm aware, bouncing in and out of highs and lows 4)289 model runs until December by my rough calculations this is how much can happen and change in 4 5)There is snaw on the 12z 6)No reasons not to be casually optomistic about Winter imho 7)Finally, have a good rest of day everybody

Long may this pattern continue. This is nature's payback for the awful cold May. Plenty of time for cold from November onwards.

ECM 12z NH view for day 7 and the Arctic Gorilla getting in some early ice hockey practice I see. Modest Scandinavian / Siberian highs linking up. 168h The mid-latitude jet in bits, no sign of any low setting up near Greenland any time soon (quite the opposite in fact). Out to day 9, Greenland high developing, trying to link up with the “Sciberian”, a block from Greenland through Scandinavia to Siberia. 216h Other than the nascent PV wandering around the pole, the meandering mid-Atlantic low in our general locale (will it, won’t it?), the Aleutian low and the one developing off the far east of Russia are the only other pieces of cyclonic action in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere, the latter in the Sea of Okhotsk being the only one undergoing cyclogenesis at that point. It’s just so quiet! And seemingly for days on end.

As Turnedoutniceagain posted above more general increases in snow in both Americas and Europe yesterday. Ice continues to grow steadily on JAXA (between 20 and 40K Km2) each day, but Masie is going through another mini 'crisis' with losses of over 100K and 30K Km2 in the last 2 days to give us a low of 5,048KKm2 currently. but still not lower than the still current low of 5,022K Km2. AND still above the politically sensitive number of 5.000K KM2. Low pressure is now taking over in the Arctic and the temperature above 80degrees (as given by DMI) looks to be fairly stable, but losing its contact with the 1970 -2000 medium line that it started the season by faithfully following.. Temperature are forecast to fall in both N America and Russia/Siberia over the next 10days so hopefully snow cover will become more extensive there. Minimums - and in 10days MIA

Yep, and the 12z runs carry on in this vein. A very different end to the week than we were expecting a day or two ago, and for many it’s fine and quite warm right through to Saturday now. Up to 23c on every day now forecast.

looks like the weather is going to be lovely for my visit back home..arrive tomorrow... 20-22c on the cards for most of my stay and dry also

Chilly morning probably down to about 5 or 6 degrees. Not unusual but given most nights this month have seen double digit lows, had some effect in making it feel autumnal at least. Still plenty of warmth about, sun has some heat still.. though wind is fresher today. Cant remember a longer period with no wind..

The EC-control shows something truly amazing. Very cold -for the time of the year- air on the continent. The British Isles have a piece of it too.

Is this a record for the skinniest area of high pressure over the UK? Northeasterly in east Wales, southwesterly in west Wales!

Yes, the ECM develops a markedly more intense low to our northwest at 144h, around 960mb, compared with around 975mb on the GFS and UKMO. The ECM is a good deal lazier building the high over Greenland too, with less of a definite northerly flow between Greenland and Svalbard, the overall pattern keeping the low and the trough further north. 12z ECM / 12z GFS / 12z UKMO

I’m not a mild winter fan, but we probably need one, with the gas prices taking a hike. A cold winter will definitely cause major problems for poorer households.

Apart from the fading light, it’s to all intents and purposes a summer month. In the south especially. Most days reach 20c, which is still summery, and cet wise it’s not too dissimilar to June. Plus if you hate summer, the lower sun angle means it’s nowhere near as oppressive.

I find the sun starts feeling noticeably weaker when the UV index dips below 5, which is about late August / early September. Having said that though, the weather now is pretty identical to this time in August wrt skies and temperature, yet the sun is noticeably weaker. Pretty good going for this stage in September. Personally I'm not finding this weather at all. As I've said before, I'm very enthusiastic about sunshine. If we were suffering anticyclonic gloom, however, I'd probably be wishing in the more traditional Atlantic fare.

February 1979 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 19th 20th 21st 22nd 23rd 24th 26th 27th 28th March 1979 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th May 1979 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Could be wrong of course....all of the models and NOAA outlook grossly over-exaggerated the blocking regime for the UK last week. There's a chance the unsettled regime could be over played too (a small chance at that though). Ie we went from this to this in the space of 3 days!

As a survivor of the 70s and 80s inflation when you changed a tractor every four years and you got 50% more for the old one but the new one had doubled have been saying that this winter is going to the perfect example of the law of unintended consequences. The whole economy is heading for the perfect storm.

I'm happy for it to stay like this! It's my boy's birthday on Friday and we're going to a zoo, a couple of days ago we were looking at 13 C and rainy, now it's 20 C and sunny!

Beautiful morning and infinitely better than the banal weather of the last few days. First really cold overnight low for many months with a minimum of 2.4c; currently 9c and rising. Light winds. Mind you, could do with a breezier setup now to get the wind turbines turning, the spike in energy prices is scary. Inflation is coming in hard and is going to be a shock to the young ones that never lived in the 1970's/80's. Get your pasta stocks in now as well, apparently the global Durum Wheat harvest has been a bit disastrous - link1, link2.

Starting to feel like autumn proper now. Overnight minimum of 4.8C and a lovely, sunny start to the morning. Autumnal Perthshire gold. Still a few swallows swooping around at Comrie Croft yesterday, but they'll be offski soon. The week ahead is looking more changeable, with a general trend of cooler days taking hold. Currently 11.1C and clouding over.

A cool start to the day here with a temperature of 3c at 6am this morning. A beautiful morning with sunshine and very little cloud. Looks like a general cool down over the next few days with day time temps down to low teens or just below from high teens.

A big increase yesterday in Alaska. Snow continuing to spread westwards towards the Urals too.

First truly autumnal sunset with setting sun highlighting shower to east in pink . Cool now at 9c.

16 deg 850s on 24th Sept? Pretty warm I would say for late September. Then by the 27th a HP block to the NE and SW indicated on the ecm12z. With UK caught in the trough it wont be settled but not overly cold I would have thought, although potential cooler easterly could occur moving forward. Similar pattern shown on the EPS : The vortex is just not kicking into life on these charts and as others have said the Atlantic is just not engaging. However as Damianslaw states this is at odds with the GFS/UKMO so could be a blip. Time will tell....

Still weirdly warm in Falkirk, it's been an amazing summer but I'm more than ready for some cooler weather. Have made it up quite a few Munros this year (including a couple of hateful pathless ones near Crianlarich). I've upped my Munro count to 25 (but I've done some quite a few times). Mr Snowidea is smugly near 150 but considering I'm short, overweight (obligatory lockdown stone added) and scared of heights, I'm quite chuffed with my count so far. Few pics below.

Just as I was hoping for some wind and rain, it looks like staying dry, settled and warm for the foreseeable. I do really dislike September and the nothingness it seems to bring.

Yes, frankly she is morally obliged to shower us with nothing but benevolence. It would be outrageous for her to do anything but. Especially after we've spent the past 200 years pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, dumping plastic into the ocean rapidly deforresting every corner of the globe to provide cardboard packaging for boxes of coco-pops. Where's our medal?

A rare night in single figures. They have been very few and far between going back to early June.

Sunny Sheffield at 17.1C +2C above normal. Rainfall up to 9.4mm 14.3% of the monthly average Good chance on being in top ten driest months and the warmest on record.

4.8C The first real autumn night with shallow fog

There's been talk about a possible eruption on La Palma for a few days but I was expecting a offshore eruption similar to the El Hierro eruption of 2011 and nothing in magnitude to these ongoing lava fountains and cinder-cones building up as the hours have progressed, the main concern will be phreatomagmatic explosions that could occur is ground-water comes into direct contact (something i've seen a few geologists say is almost a certainty) but for now the eruption is relatively 'clean' meaning military forces and potential evacuation flights can still liaise at the main airport should they be needed.

Hi Mate, wondered where you'd got to.

Certainly parallels there, political changes as well... 1978-79 winter of discontent.. new government in 1979. Generally the early to mid 80s were a time of economic woe, mass unemployment peak in winter 81-82, very cold.. Miners Strike -winter 84-85. Then the boom years of the late 80s brought 3 very mild winters, followed by recession, just in time for the colder winter of 90-91.. more than a pattern. A couple of colder winters 95-96, 96-97 followed by change in government... As you say 08-09 came on the back of the banking fiasco and recession resumed. Oh another change of government after the coldest winter since 78-79.. more than a coincidence.. Even last winter was coldish.. in midst of pandemic.. Brexit as well.. will 21-22 be our next 09-10.. and bring change of government.. mmm unlikely given only 2 years into current term.. but you never know...

The temperature eventually got up to 17.0⁰C at 16:16 and the wind got up too, hitting 11mph at 17:32. Luckily no more rain fell so it turned out quite a usable afternoon. The apples are ready. Just in time for the pork.

You would almost think it was high summer looking at these ECMWF 12z operational charts wouldn’t you, ignoring the blue bits of course?… ? ..and that’s all from the Jon snow model output discussion for now…

This evening's sky. Hanging over the back fence, then a bit later nearer the house