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Does it? Still looks like a glancing blow to me. It also looks like the south is going to stay warm into the weekend now- although increasingly breezy, I don't think the low 20s can really be described as 'autumnal'. If anything, the GFS is actually less unsettled for the coming week than it was yesterday- the core of the low is actually missing Scotland now. A few days ago it looked like it would plough through the UK. Anything properly autumnal is still way out in FI and with tropical storms in the mix, you can never be certain more than a few days out.

No comments on the Gfs 6z op?..well, ok, it’s not perfect but there is some warmth and even some high pressure, especially later! ….ok, there’s some low pressure and cooler more unsettled weather too! …come on guys, it’s nearly October, what do you expect..??? ?

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean, to me it’s a north / south split with most of the unsettled weather across northern parts of the u k whereas the s / se escapes relatively lightly and in any case, longer term the trend is more settled from the south with the north improving too (this is broad brush) but…on balance, early October, especially further south would be more generally settled / benign with overnight mist / fog? ? ? ️

You would almost think it was high summer looking at these ECMWF 12z operational charts wouldn’t you, ignoring the blue bits of course?… ? ..and that’s all from the Jon snow model output discussion for now…

16 deg 850s on 24th Sept? Pretty warm I would say for late September. Then by the 27th a HP block to the NE and SW indicated on the ecm12z. With UK caught in the trough it wont be settled but not overly cold I would have thought, although potential cooler easterly could occur moving forward. Similar pattern shown on the EPS : The vortex is just not kicking into life on these charts and as others have said the Atlantic is just not engaging. However as Damianslaw states this is at odds with the GFS/UKMO so could be a blip. Time will tell....

Damp out heard rain falling earlier woke me from my slumber… blue skies to my west with sun making an appearance… having lazy Sunday after busy week… yesterday was lovely 24c on car thermometer… topped up tan at footy

Cheers, I’m pretty much over it now but the taste and smell issues which are often played down within the overall context of Covid are certainly not nice for those suffering them. meanwhile back to the weather; for the first time in what seems like ages I woke up to the sound of rain falling this morning. dry again at the moment and hopefully improving later but a poor start compared to yesterday.

8 am 23rd September 0z 6z 12z 25 September 8am 0z 6z 12z 27th September 2am 0z 6z 12z 29th September 2am 0z 6z 12z 1st October 8am 0z 6z 12z Not much changing thoughout the day except around the 29th which sets off a chain could be interesting to see around then. 1)Not expecting much snow in the long-term so don't get too excited to see snow just yet 2)We're nowhere near November yet so nobody can really say what this snow season is going to be like as far as i'm concerned 3)Typical for Autumn as far as i'm aware, bouncing in and out of highs and lows 4)289 model runs until December by my rough calculations this is how much can happen and change in 4 5)There is snaw on the 12z 6)No reasons not to be casually optomistic about Winter imho 7)Finally, have a good rest of day everybody

Let's hope so lots of talk about a front-loaded winter

Just to get in the mood for winter 30cm of fresh snow high up in the Swiss Alps.

Thankfully, the weather abides by the laws of physics. I am looking forward to some decent wind storms, and hopefully some hard frosts / snowy conditions. Although, the latter is always rare here.

The trend is your friend. Or, perhaps, the trends are your friends would be more apt?

Just had a look at the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean and to me it’s the north / northwest of the u k which would bear the brunt of the unsettled weather during the second half of the week ahead onwards…further s/se doesn’t look too bad at all with probably quite a lot of fine weather in comparison to the n/nw…this is broad brush and doesn’t mean the south / southeast wouldn’t see occasional rain?…just my opinion!

Yes, I could hear the rain here earlier too, but didn't amount to much, now skies are mostly clearing. Some showers possible later, but I'll be surprised if they amount to much here, so another reasonable day in prospect. Monday and Tuesday also look fine and sunny, but will the tide finally turn with predominantly unsettled weather returning from Wednesday...?

Meantime across the Border in Austria 2000m asl 40cm has fallen today i am sure @carinthian will be on soon to give us an update

Watched the winter update on Gav's Weather Vids earlier. The ECMWF, UK Met and a German model whose name I forget all going for weaker than normal zonal winds for November, December and to a certain extent, January so you would assume they are sniffing an SSW early doors. Let's hope this continues and they're not barking up the wrong tree!

A beautiful sight! Got me in the mood for the white stuff again. Last winter was reasonable for this area in terms of snow. Nothing sensational depth wise, but a few reasonable falls and stuck around on the ground for a reasonable period. However, we didn't cash in on the Easterly like we'd hoped. Hoping for some decent arctic based North Westerlies with properly cold uppers this winter.

Could be a bit cool tonight. Clear skies and longer nights conductive to it now. No frost but well into single figures I'd have thought inland by sunrise. Had below zero uppers invaded with these slack clear conditions then the first light frosts would have happened.

I spotted some snow blobs on the Gfs 12z operational in FI!

Still weirdly warm in Falkirk, it's been an amazing summer but I'm more than ready for some cooler weather. Have made it up quite a few Munros this year (including a couple of hateful pathless ones near Crianlarich). I've upped my Munro count to 25 (but I've done some quite a few times). Mr Snowidea is smugly near 150 but considering I'm short, overweight (obligatory lockdown stone added) and scared of heights, I'm quite chuffed with my count so far. Few pics below.

The warm September theory needs to be to be taken with a pinch of salt. A mild winter isn’t nailed on. 2009 and 2010 had fairly warm Septembers, and the winters that followed them were both cold. Same goes for a cold May usually followed by a hot sunny summer. It didn’t happen this year, despite there being a north south split.

La Palma live.

The GEFS 6z mean is essentially showing a north / south split, best is south, worst is north..but, as with the 0z mean, towards / during early October pressure rises more generally (on balance)..so it could become more widely settled into the new month?

Not a bad run, especially for the south if it's more warmth you want while we can still get it. We have enough windy, chilly days in the year so that can wait until October or after as far as I'm concerned. This run will also hold the CET up- a very warm final figure is looking increasingly likely now.

Rain first thing, which stopped before 8am to clear and give a fine sunny warm spell. Its well clouded over now and looks like round two of showers. Going to be overcast for a while, cloud out west as far as the eye can see.

What an improvement from first thing. steady rain replaced by warm sunshine, the only downside being a sticky humid feel to things

Yeah, long Covid is a real issue for some. Hopefully you return to normal soon.

On Sunday, the best weather will be over Western parts of the country, with some sunshine, although there will still be heavy showers. The Eastern parts of England and Scotland will see a lot of rain. With a ridge of high pressure moving in, Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry with some sunshine, making for a good start to next week. On Tuesday, as low pressure moves near Iceland, exposed parts of Western and Northern Scotland will experience wind gusts of up to 50 mph or more. Wednesday will be a little more unsettled, with rain moving over the country, but the Southern parts of the country will likely stay dry. The models have eased off from really unsettled weather over the past day and pushed the worst to the far North, so most agree with it will be getting colder on Thursday and Friday, with some rain or showers about and a bit windy in Northern regions. The ECM shows a deep area of low pressure on Thursday, bringing very strong winds to the UK, but there isn't much support for it at the moment. Next weekend shows increasing support of low pressure developing to Iceland's South West, which might bring more rainy and windy weather to the UK, particularly in the North. Any low pressure around might lessen off through the start of the following week. However, the weather looks to remain on the unsettled side, with rain or showers expected. This evening's amination, 19th Sept to 28th (average model outlook)

The 9 day (day 2-10) panels show how the ECM is being consistently more progressive in dropping troughs down over the UK compared with the GFS. The 12z ECM brings the trough down over us for a fleeting northerly at day 5 and then again at day 8 / 9. It ends up with a strong looking high in the Atlantic to our southwest. A meridional flow pattern with slow alternations. Day 10 is broadly back to where we were at the start. With the 12z GFS, the trough never gets through the UK once in the 10 days. A shallow low slowly drifts our way from the west towards day 10. Interestingly, there is no impressive looking high in the Atlantic by then. Still in a post-summer slumber, with a weak jetstream at 240h that stalls altogether in the mid-Atlantic, no pronounced troughing and hardly any flow at all.

Is this a record for the skinniest area of high pressure over the UK? Northeasterly in east Wales, southwesterly in west Wales!

Marked differences between ECM and GFS/UKMO at the 144hr-168 range.. not sure what ECM is on this evening but it looks wrong. It cleans out the trough and low ish heights over scandi in one swoop replacing with a high pressure..GFS and UKMO dig the trough in and down through scandi. ECM looks wrong at the 96-120 hr range it shows barely any change in the Atlantic profile whilst it is a fluid scene.

Cheers, I'm on the mend now slowly. Thankfully was no worse than a bad cold at the peak and feeling less chesty now as well.

Hope you are feeling better Buddy

I was a bit surprised to see some rain this afternoon after a glorious morning, but did not amount to much and has cleared to a cloudless evening and nice sunset.

The mega tsunami were based on worst case scenarios modelling and not on past geology. There hasn't been a landslide of the required size in canary islands history. Yes it can possibly happen but very unlikely. Understanding the La Palma mega-landslide hypothesis: part 1 - The Landslide Blog - AGU Blogosphere BLOGS.AGU.ORG This is the first of a number of posts exploring the La Palma mega-landslide and tsunami hypothesis. This post explores the main structural features.

Now we've got two volcanos to watch. Watch out for media predicting mage tsunami and island collapse. Bad blow for La Palma as they would be hoping for tourist trade after all this covid.

Starting to get fed up with high pressure now. I want some autumnal weather. I very much appreciated it during the summer. But it's now autumn's turn. On the other hand, high pressure can stay as long as it delivers some widespread cold misty nights and mornings. Those are lovely at this time of the year.

For those who are interested, Gavs third Winter update is available. Very interesting indeed. Especially in regards to zonal winds for Autumn/Winter.

Yup totally agree with u!!!hardly any rain again from both the gfs and ecm!!ecm has defo moved towards the gfs in the earlier timeframe with a more stubborn high for wednesday!!

Pretty progressive overnight model outputs. The GFS has buckled and given up its recency-bias high pressure cell. Autumn looks like it is slowly but surely cranking into gear, folks. Batten down the hatches and enjoy!

After having a mild dose of Covid in late January I struggled with taste and smell issues for six months and although it’s got better over the last few weeks I’m certainly not back to normal and still have days when I feel awful. In my case the after effects were worse than the illness itself but my wife who had Covid at the same time never had anything beyond a few groggy days after testing positive.

On the 12z ECM op, day 7 and 8, a new low drops out of Greenland and takes a swipe at us, but you do get the feeling it will probably in the event get squeezed out north by either one or a combination of both the areas of high pressure either side. ECM 168h / 192h The 12z GEM op has a similar idea at that timeframe, though it develops a deeper low between Scotland and Iceland. GEM 168h / 192h

SST anomaly this time in 2010: And now: Some similarities there.

The ECM 12z operational is something of a mixed bag, there’s alternating troughs and ridges, temperatures are up and down which I think indicates typical early autumn weather with the autumnal equinox just around the corner!.changeable then?!! .for sure it could be worse..of course, it could be better too? ? ️ ?

4th Winter 2021/2022 update Yet again a week has passed and time for me to yet again look through the CFS 00z 9 monthly run for 16/09/2021 to see what it is predicting this time around. So far we have done very well for a colder outlook but can the CFS maintain this or will it let us coldies down. At some point it is bound to churn out a milder than average run but will it be this one? Summary of my first 3 updates so far I have featured the CET 1991-2020 means for each month as well as the anomalies I got for each update but left out the daytime and night time values and concentrated just on the means Month 26/08/2021 update 02/09/2021 update 09/09/2021 update OVERALL AVERAGE Dec 2021 91-20 4.97C 91-20 4.97C 91-20 4.97C 91-20 4.97C Run 4.73C Run 5.54C Run 5.44C Runs 5.24C Anom -0.24C Anom +0.57C Anom +0.47C Anom +0.27C Jan 2022 91-20 4.66C 91-20 4.66C 91-20 4.66C 91-20 4.66C Run 1.95C Run 3.42C Run 3.95C Runs 3.11C Anom -2.71C Anom -1.24C Anom -0.71C Anom -1.55C Feb 2022 91-20 4.89C 91-20 4.89C 91-20 4.89C 91-20 4.89C Run 3.50C Run 1.43C Run 3.34C Runs 2.76C Anom -1.39C Anom -3.46C Anom -1.55C Anom -2.13C Mar 2022 91-20 6.74C 91-20 6.74C 91-20 6.74C 91-20 6.74C Run 4.26C Run 3.92C Run 3.89C Runs 4.02C Anom -2.48C Anom -2.82C Anom -2.85C Anom -2.72C OVERALL FIGURES Dec to Mar 26/08/2021 update 02/09/2021 update 09/09/2021 update OVERALL AVERAGE 91-20 5.32C 91-20 5.32C 91-20 5.32C 91-20 5.32C Run 3.61C Run 3.58C Run 4.15C Runs 3.78C Anom -1.71C Anom -1.74C Anom -1.17C Anom -1.54C Looking good for cold so far I have to say. Now time to find out what update 4 brings, here we go. December 2021 We open up December here with a brief northerly which looks as if it isn't going to do very much with a brief ridge before the next low approaches. Low pressure then gets stuck out to the west whilst a block forms to our east. Which is going to win out? The block forces the low down into Europe and opens the doors to an early beasterly and the first potential snow chance already at this stage. As is typical for the UK the block soon collapses down into Europe and the Atlantic starts to come back in again This is quite brief as the next low slides through the UK and down into Europe High pressure then builds around the UK just in time for Christmas so a dry and frosty Christmas on this run Yet again the high collapses to the south and threatens another Atlantic push again. The Atlantic is really struggling here once again and this is how we close out December 2021 December 16/09/21 CFS 00z CET Means 1991-2020 Anomalies Av Max 5.45C Max 7.71C -2.26C Av Min 5.46C Min 2.23C +3.23C 2 Ice Days Av Mean 5.44C Mean 4.97C +0.47C As with the first 3 updates December comes out slightly milder than average again with a mean of 5.44C which is +0.47C above the 1991-2020 mean. Like with the other updates there is a period of colder weather within the month and this time it is mid month that has the coldest weather. We even manage a couple of ice days during this colder snap when the mini beasterly comes. We are doing well for colder days so far but we really need to get those nights a bit colder to pull December down into a colder than average month. January 2022 January 2022 opens with a small area of high pressure trying to cling on with lows all around trying to push it out of the way The Atlantic wins out here as is typical and we enter the mildest part of this month However the Atlantic push is quite brief again as high pressure builds back in over the UK Another attempt by the Atlantic takes place here but ends up failing as the low slides down over the UK and into Europe again Now we enter the coldest part of January 2022 and in fact the longest and most prolonged cold spell of the winter on this run. We get a brief easterly that brings in the cold before high pressure builds in on top of the cold. We set up a bit of a battleground here with lows and fronts trying to get in over the UK no doubt bringing frontal snow events. Eventually the Atlantic breaks through fully by the end of the month. January 16/09/21 CFS 00z CET Means 1991-2020 Anomalies Av Max 4.03C Max 7.37C -3.34C Av Min 0.77C Min 1.95C -1.18C 2 Ice Days Av Mean 2.40C Mean 4.66C -2.26C January 2022 has yet again come out as a colder than average month on this run and with a mean of 2.40C which is -2.26C below the 1991-2020 mean we have stepped back in a colder direction for January compared with update 3 but still not as cold as update 1 was. We therefore maintain the colder than average signal for January 2022 which is a good sign the month could turn out this way if we can keep this up. February 2022 We open up February 2022 with the Atlantic back in business after it's breakthrough at the end of last month This just continues on and on for the first 11 days of the month. We break out of this pattern with a brief northerly before high pressure builds in, giving the coldest part of February 2022 on this particular run High pressure sticks around for a few days but not for that long Eventually the Atlantic comes back for another go This attempt doesn't get very far though as the low just dives down into Europe instead We have an attempt here to get an easterly in but the dartboard low to the west is racing in to cut it off The Atlantic succeeds here and we end the month with a long fetch SW wind and very mild air is pushing in. February 16/09/21 CFS 00z CET Means 1991-2020 Anomalies Av Max 5.61C Max 7.92C -2.31C Av Min 2.82C Min 1.85C +0.97C 0 Ice Days Av Mean 4.21C Mean 4.89C -0.68C This is a rather disappointing 4th update for February 2022 if you are looking for anything significant in the colder department. Even though the mean comes out at 4.21C which is still -0.68C colder than the 1991-2020 mean this is a rather more Atlantic dominated February 2022 compared with the other updates. Still a colder signal but much less so and I hope this is a blip rather than a new trend setter. March 2022 March 2022 gets off to a very mild start here with the mildest temperatures of the month on this run appearing early on in the month. We build high pressure in over these milder temperatures so we lower the night time values but maintain double figure maximums at this stage. Although we turn winds to the east here it is not a cold air mass so temperatures remain above average at this stage Back comes the Atlantic yet again to ruin any chance of a last blast of winter. The Atlantic enters maximum gear here and we see one storm after another. It is only right at the very end of March 2022 that we settle things down again. We turn winds into the east again but this does little to bring in any form of significant cold at this stage. March 16/09/21 CFS 00z CET Means 1991-2020 Anomalies Av Max 7.81C Max 10.39C -2.58C Av Min 4.61C Min 3.08C +1.53C 0 Ice Days Av Mean 6.21C Mean 6.74C -0.53C As expected when looking at the March charts this has come out as the least cold March 2022 update so far and after some very cold updates this is no real surprise. We still scrape into colder than average territory though with a mean of 6.21C which is -0.53C below the 1991-2020 mean but with an anomaly like that we are very much close to average. Overall 16/09/21 CFS 00z CET Means 1991-2020 Anomalies Av Max 5.72C Max 8.35C -2.63C Av Min 3.42C Min 2.28C +1.14C 4 Ice Days Overall Av Mean 4.57C Mean 5.32C -0.75C Overall another colder than average update but much less so than the first 3 which is to be expected considering the February and March figures on this update bringing us back closer to the mean values for this time period. Overall we came out with a mean of 4.57C which is -0.75C below the December to March 1991-2020 mean. A bit of a let down update to be fair but then I was expecting some during the updates I am doing. OVERALL FIGURES These were the overall figures after the first 3 updates Month OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS Dec 2021 91-20 4.97C Runs 5.24C Anom +0.27C Jan 2022 91-20 4.66C Runs 3.11C Anom -1.55C Feb 2022 91-20 4.89C Runs 2.76C Anom -2.13C Mar 2022 91-20 6.74C Runs 4.02C Anom -2.72C Dec to Mar OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS 91-20 5.32C Runs 3.78C Anom -1.54C Now here are the updated figures to reflect the new 4th update. Month OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 4 RUNS Dec 2021 91-20 4.97C Runs 5.29C (up +0.05C) Anom +0.32C Jan 2022 91-20 4.66C Runs 2.93C (down -0.18C) Anom -1.73C Feb 2022 91-20 4.89C Runs 3.12C (up +0.36C) Anom -1.77C Mar 2022 91-20 6.74C Runs 4.57C (up +0.55C) Anom -2.17C Dec to Mar OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 3 RUNS 91-20 5.32C Runs 3.98C (up +0.20C) Anom -1.34C I will be bringing update number 5 next week for the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021 to see where the CFS stands on winter 2021/2022 next time around. Hope it can shift back towards a more colder pattern after this latest not so cold update.

Cheers, on the mend now slowly. It felt no worse than a really bad cold at worst. The taste and smell thing is weird. I can sense bitter, sweet etc, but everything just tastes really bland, no flavour. Not really that bunged up anymore, but cooked a chilli this evening and couldn't smell it at all. Can't smell coffee either.

I think judging by the latest model output we could be quite possibly reverting back to something less or indeed far less cyclonic than what was being forecast just a couple of days ago. These high pressure cells look far too robust for there to be any significant change right now. Nothing other than mixed conditions from midweek looks to be the form horse with any Atlantic lows having little impact as there being diverted well away to the northwest.

Thank you, a fair amount of work has gone into that post, an interesting idea too. I'll keep an eye open for your next animation. Also be interesting to see just how close to the actual the video turns out. Again my thanks John

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