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EC intent on the bringing the trough into play so was probably right with its general progression ... With Sept 3 weeks away my thoughts are already turning to Autumn and dare I say Winter. Early news Marco Petanga suggesting eQBO...... a weakish ENSO( nina) might be an interesting combination. ENSO / Strat thread may be interesting over the next 6 to 8 weeks ..

Stone the crows the GFS 12z could of been on the Gin this afternoon...now where will this sit amongst the ens? Either way it's very pleasant viewing on a thoroughly wet evening here. Here's the mean at a similar time frame.

Main focus of storms today likely to be over Ireland with slow moving heavy downpours. Possible storm developments for Wales, South West, West Midlands, maybe further across the south. Not all the models agree on timing so for some models surface based storms are limited to Wales and the South West while others move the instability further East I to the early evening perhaps even getting to East Anglia or London. Fairly weak instability across the board but some low base cloud possible in post frontal low level convergence zones which when combined with low level wind shear suggests roll up vorticity ingestion possible. Mid to upper level wind shear is declining at this point so only the leading edge storms likely to have sufficient updraft and downdraft separation to utilize vorticity ingestion. Overall temperatures are low for High enough instability for severe storms and timing of various components will be critical for storm initiation. Gut feeling looking at Satellite then I am not impressed with storm potential, yet something tells me we could have a surprise moderately severe storm. Over to radar watching now.

I'd say the 12z GFS is pretty good this evening. Would be very warm in the SE if this was to verify. Interested to see where the OP sits in the ensembles.

GFS 00Z at T+360 . . . Very unlikely to materialise? Yes, of course -- but 'impossible'? Of course not!?

More to the point is that too many folks think that the southern coastal counties account for the entire UK?

Well, at least the GFS 06Z is not an outlier:

As a southerner I have to say that overall this summer has been pretty poor, overall cooler than normal temperatures, more rain and less sun. I understand northern areas and Ireland have faired lots better which may have balanced the stats out a little but I'd be interested to see how summer ranks in southern areas only, I'm guessing fairly low. Hoping we have a nice August and September to make up for it

I expected nothing less! ..just kidding.. ...anyway, it’s a good Gfs 0z op under the circumstances, even if it has zero chance!

Friday the 13th is considered unlucky, but if the Gfs 0z operational is right, we would be very lucky! ...and beyond mid month we become even luckier! ? ? ...summer ain’t over!!!!

Yes Karl, perhaps ‘very unsettled’ for a time here in the NW for the first time in quite a while. Then as you say changeable for a time whilst the next low approaches, the destination of which remains very tricky for the models to decipher. Regardless, this spell next week was also dubious, still some confidence in a better 2nd half from the EC46 W2 1/2 W3 1/2 Although outliers, the 12z GFS and ECM do turn more settled from day 9 onwards, but both look like they could be transient and are not well supported by their ensemble sets. I wouldn’t get to excited just yet mind if you’re after a proper summery spell. The latest NOAA, as @mushymanrob has alluded to, is neither monsoon nor heatwave For serious high pressure spells in the U.K. I have seen so many go bust I tend to look for strong ensemble and op model agreement across the board for 2-3 days with NOAA fully on board. It seems like a lot to ask but said method has served me well over the years. We haven’t got that level of agreement yet, and some significant water to go under the bridge in the meantime, so it’s a watching brief for now...

I think it’s fair to say the models are showing a changeable outlook with a trough / ridge / trough / ridge pattern...actually, the ECM 12z operational doesn’t end badly at all, at least across the south! ......as for the GEFS 12z, to me it indicates a typical north / south split beyond the initial trough domination...so, the south at least could have some predominantly decent weather towards / during / beyond mid month and of course none of this precludes another burst of summery weather like the Gfs 12z operational shows approx mid month...but I think the word CHANGEABLE is the best way of describing the outlook period...anyone agree?

It was at the top of the pack but not necessarily an outlier. There still could be the chance of some warmer (and perhaps settled) weather for southern areas next week.

I wouldn't say horrible..even the chance of a plume towards the end...where is that cut off low going! I'm not sure where this is going to be sitting amongst the ens..it looks a pretty strange NH set up...Heights into Greenland,a low centred to our SW,and another small low just of Iceland coupled with low Heights over scandy! Seems very much a complete mismatch of events that could have been drawn by a toddler. Just to take a glance at the NH profile at day 10..wow there is a multitude of things going on there.

Just a quickie before the 12z gets into full swing..the Gfs 6z operational indicated a changeable outlook, trough / ridge / trough / ridge etc etc but eventually by the last third of august, high pressure gets a foothold, so perhaps if we are patient, the last 10 days or so of summer could be worth waiting for as the longer term signal from the pros is still potentially excellent for summer fans!

A typical summertime mix of sunshine/heavy showers this weekend. However, sea breezes could well keep many coastal districts mainly dry & sunny:

A rather spiky-looking GEFS 00Z ensemble this morning; T850s between 5 and 15C will do me okay, though:

Nothing particularly very warm or hot on the horizon, which quite frankly I'm not too fussed about anyway. It can stay where it belongs in Spain. Pleasantly warm is enough like the last couple of days. And anyway we're slowly edging towards the time of year when proper hot weather is less likely to occur after mid August onwards as the seasonal average temp begins it's descent towards Autumn.

On-time the first band of rain has now arrived at 6pm with warning for storms beginning at 4am tomorrow morning, lasting throughout the day so we might see a storm or two in the NW but it'll predominantly be the rain that's the more noticeable feature over the next 3 days.

The situation gets a tad more interesting by Day 10. I wonder when (if) that European heat will come into play. After all, didn't we see 94F a few Septembers' ago?

The conditions hopefully settling down around Monday for a few days...The conditions in the area your traveling too should be set fair with temps around 22-25c. The Gem puts us back to square one come later next week,and just in time for the Weekend! Doing my nut in now all of this! That 2nd low needs watching also could bring some much warmer conditions ahead of it for a time at least. @emmett garland this post was intended for you Ps..got room for one more? I'm an excellent sailor

Depends on location and interests really, I agree we've had much better summers, but the amount of thunderstorms we've been having is quite exciting as these past few years we haven't had so many storms. I agree that temperature duration wise hasn't been that good (example second half of June) but it has been much much worse in the past.

August 13th was hot last year as well- let's hope it is lucky for us again.

Agree, another fantastic summer morning here, sunshine, fresh temps, everything a UK summer should be, beats anything else hands down.

Do you see a women in this radar picture? If so, she's gonna make things rather wet here.

Hi all, have a lot of thread reading to catch up on but I hope you're all well. It's been a pretty awesome summer weather wise and I'm nearly as brown as when we go to France. Highlight of the summer was a week in Glencoe in a cottage a mile up a track with no WiFi or mobile signal (the kids weren't best pleased). Had the most amazing view of the Aonach Eagach from the front room, spent a fair amount of time glued to a telescope watching the people on the ridge. Did my first ever scramble up pink rib opposite the Buachaille Etive Mor (I pretty much moaned the whole way up, cried on the way down then boasted about having done it ?). The cottage owners had a lovely black lab that our pup fell in love with. Highly recommended Glencoe Mountain Cottages if anyone fancies a real escape from the Internet. Looking forward to catching up with you all and keeping my eye out for some over the next couple of days. Some pics below.

Sunny intervals early with a max of 19.8C. Cloudier as day went on with one sharp shower. A strong SE wind throughout.

Let's hope the diversion and water pumps are up to the job at Todbrooke.

August autumn on GFS 12Z, not far off showing the first snows of 2021-22 season for far north? shows how cold it can get later in Aug

Heavy rain.

Thanks mate. Must admit, I am unsure of the forecast tomorrow. @SNOW_JOKE covered the uncertainty, a few posts ago. ill take it as wet or very wet, it will probably be a bit of drizzle.

No blue skies up our neck of the woods at the moment, windy 'n wet. Enjoyed your your holiday posts and pics. Have a safe journey home tomorrow.

Its odd how the forecast has been so-wrong for two days in a row. What should have been a 'dry-sunny' day yesterday ended up in the Peak District having localized flooding along with intermittent thunderstorms, and what should have been a 'overcast-washout' day today has ended up being one of the sunniest this week.

Well, this is good weather for getting some fresh air inside. That's all I can say for it really. Yesterday was gorgeous, and me and my girlfriend went for a stroll into the fields on our doorstep for sunset. As already mentioned above, why can't summer be mostly like yesterday was?

Still sunny and pleasant here. I'm at Hopton near Potters resort where they do the indoor bowls. View is looking North to Gorleston.

Forecast for today was for 3-4 hours of persistent rain we had a rain shower lasting about 3 minutes might have been the case of the classic rain shadow we often see scupper a snow event in winter. C.S

A few higher topped clouds with increased rainfall rates showing up in the South West with perhaps a rear frontal squall line. No Lightning showing up apart from Ireland. Currently affecting Swansea but speed estimate would bring it to Cardiff within the hour and towards Bristol stretching up to the west midlands within maybe two hours. Not exactly what was forecast but interesting development and typically these lines have low cloud bases, have gusty rear downdrafts and can create tail end storms at out flow boundaries which can benefit from a little insolation (rise in surface temperature) and low level wind speed shear. In other words you can get very weak spout like tornadoes from tail end convection. At the moment cloud tops don't look high enough to give much more than a swift deluge of rain and gusty wind conditions, but worth watching to see how things develop (beginning to show up on EUMETSAT Images along the tail edge of vorticity band).

Heatwave helps mark fifth warmest July on record | Official blog of the Met Office news team

Really moist skew t readings similar for tomorrow so I’d say any showers and storms likely to produce quite a lot of rain maybe a bit of flooding in a few areas can see Pwat values of 3 on there “2.00 inches or above = very high moisture content” SKEW-T: A LOOK AT PW WWW.THEWEATHERPREDICTION.COM

Lovely clear blue sky bright sunshine making most of being outside this morning before sunshine replaced with overcast and rain later…

Nice start to the day, warm sunshine...shame it's going all downhill later on.

Lovely summer's day after the deluge of rain yesterday evening (never write in here that an ongoing shower has nuisance value, it turned into a lengthy period of rain topping out at 11mm). Max of 21.1c with light to moderate W/WNW winds. Shower clouds tried to bubble up in the morning, as here in Monymusk... However, nothing here in the afternoon bar good spells of sunshine. Others not so lucky, with hints of a dying shower this evening over to the west... Lovely sunset as well...

I would settle for perturbation 2...although p3 ain’t bad..but I don’t fancy p4.. p2 would make august for me...

The very few cloudier days get a discussion going down here! The last rain that fell was about five or six weeks back, and with a few thundery showers before that earlier in June, so close enough to the theme of a Mediterranean summer even though there has not been any true sustained heatwaves of 35 to 40C (and upwards) beyond a couple of brief spells in July. Its no guesswork involved that the two periods, so far, of this summer, that have seen a departure from the changeable cooler and sometimes very wet pattern that UK and other parts of NW and central europe have seen have coincided with momentum shifts upwards between the tropics and extra tropics. The first being in the opening ten days to fortnight of June and more recently the mid to latter part of July. The downturn from mid June to the first part of July, and the latest one on-going, being a result of the high frequency tropical cycle returning to mirroring an underlying increasingly Nina-esque standing wave once again and associated generally rather lower than average atmospheric angular momentum tendency. The Global Wind Oscillation phase plot, (a depiction of wind-flow inertia within the atmospheric circulation which gives a useful diagnostic guide to jet stream behaviour) and also the angular momentum anomalies themselves (that the GWO mirrors in its orbits) both illustrate those two relatively short upward cycles within otherwise supressed tendency. Its a deliberately simplified illustration (with rather pedestrian hand-work) but it does provide a mirror for correlation purposes. In synoptic terms (for summer wavelengths) this ebb and flow pattern revolves around the movements of a stronger than average Azores high sub tropical ridge (the one that gives the stable sunny and very warm/hot conditions to southern europe). However, with tendencies for this to retrogress its influence across more northern parts of europe due to upstream wind-flow inertia decelerating c/o rossby waves amplification occurring across the Pacific when tropical connection suppression takes hold across this section of the tropics and sub tropics. The net effect of recurring Pacific amplification is to keep re-setting the downstream pattern to a trough/ridge/trough pattern - with the final ridge /trough arrangement being across the west/central atlantic and north western european sectors respectively. As suppression briefly wanes across the pacific, c/o eastward passage of the high frequency tropical cycle increasing wind-flow across the Pacific and sending the amplifying rossby wavelength downstream, then the trough over UK/NW and central europe is replaced by ridging for the temporary period that this interference with the background base state exists. Its hard to see a break to this pattern cycle rut at present, and with signs that a La Nina-esque hold on the wider hemispheric pattern may strengthen again heading into autumn. This makes it likely that Atlantic ridging will continue to dominate proceedings overall, though as per the previous post, its worth watching out to see how tropical storm activity intervenes if, following any recurving tropical storm (from within the Equatorial Atlantic) another intra-seasonal kelvin wave crosses the tropics and a further temporary rise in angular momentum occurs. This maybe more likely late this month and perhaps into September. Other than this, any hotter spells and more southerly winds (for UK/NW Europe) seem harder to come by and restricted to breakaway ridging transferring eastward ahead of main troughs and associated advection of brief plumes. Though again, this sequence could be further amplified or augmented if any tropical activity gets caught up in such a sequence. Lots more lovely sunshine and customary warmth to come down here ( nothing likely to top up the water bore-hole for some time yet), but a case of making the most of the drier, warmer and more settled spells when they come for the majority interest of the forum in the UK

yeah same here, hardly been the washout day predicted

Many thanks to Roger and J10 for all the hard work in putting the competition together. I seem to have somehow sneaked up to the top of the overall CET competition table - don't suppose it'll last! Certainly everything to play for.

This is what some people don't seem to grasp. If we had a winter of constant 11-14 degrees, but one week where it got quite cold and maybe even snowed, would it be OK to say "You had a great winter, what's all the fuss about?"

Unfortunately, a new and heavy heat wave will begin on Saturday in central and southern Italy, in all the Balkans except Slovenia and especially in Greece. At this point, summer 2021 could be the hottest for Sicily and Greece and one of the hottest for the Balkan area, beating even the terrible summer of 2017. Northern Italy does not belong to peninsular Italy and especially the northwest follows dynamics of its own.

The EWP has settled for now at 90.4 mm. Scoring is adjusted as follows ... JULY FORECASTS _______________________ ANNUAL SCORING (provisional scores for July) rank _ fcst _ forecaster ____ points _____ rank _ points _ forecaster (avg error and rank) 1. 90.0 _ summer blizzard _10.00 _____ 1. 58.02 _ snowray __________ (29.13 mm - 1st) 2. 90.0 _ syed2878 _________ 9.88______ 2. 55.74 _ Feb91blizzard ____ (31.71 mm - 6th) 3. 89.2 _Kirkcaldy Weather _9.58 ______ 3. 53.06 _ Don _______________(30.66 mm - 2nd) 4. 89.0 _WalsallWoodSnow_ 9.37 ______ 4. 51.64 _ Midlands Ice Age _ (31.76 mm - 7th) 5. 87.2 _ Roger J Smith _____ 9.16 ______ 5. 51.05 _ Relativistic ________ (31.19 mm - 3rd) 6. 93.5 _ Midlands Ice Age _ 8.95_______ 6. 50.49 _ virtualsphere _____ (32.88 mm - 8th) 7. 85.0 _ davehsug _________ 8.74 ______ 7. 49.75 _ noname_weather _ (35.34 mm - 13th) 8. 96.0 _ Weather26 ________8.53 ______ 8. 49.67 _ davehsug _________ (31.41 mm - 4th) 9. 96.0 _ Godber 1 _________ 8.41 ______ 9. 47.89 _ Reef ______________ (31.50 mm - 5th)** 10 82.0 _ virtualsphere _____ 8.11 _____ 10 47.41 _ federico __________ (34.67 mm - 11th) * 11 82.0 _ noname_weather _7.99 ______11 46.70 _ Bobd29 ___________(38.36 mm - 18th) 12 82.0 _ East Lancs Rain^ __7.57 ______12 45.45 _ Roger J Smith _____(34.33 mm - 10th) 13 80.0 _ weather-history ___7.26 _____ 13 42.13 _ Godber 1 _________ (35.99 mm - 14th) 14 81.0 _ daniel* ^ _________7.18 ______ 14 44.18 _ February1978 _____(37.29 mm - 16th) 15 80.0 _ B87 _______________7.14 ______15 43.45 _ seaside60 _________(36.94 mm - 15th) 16 80.0 _ Relativistic ^ ______6.72 ______ 16 41.85 _ The PIT ___________ (40.94 mm - 29th) 17 77.0 _ shillitocettwo _____ 6.63 ______17 41.07 _ Kirkcaldy Weather_ (42.46 mm - 33rd) 18 77.0 _ MrMaunder _______6.51 ______ 18 39.40 _ Leo97t ____________ (44.21 mm - 36th) 19 77.0 _ Neil N _____________6.39_______19 39.32 _ Mr Maunder ______ (39.34 mm - 21st) 20 76.5 _ snowray __________ 6.00_______ 20 38.62 _ Blast From The Past (43.11 mm - 34th) 21 105.0_I Rem Atl 252 _____ 5.80 ______ 21 38.61 _ Ed Stone __________ (38.59 mm - 19th) 22 75.0 _ Jeff C ______________5.58 ______ 22 38.58 _ DR(S)NO __________ (38.95 mm - 23rd) 23 75.0 _ DR(S)NO __________ 5.46 ______ 23 38.16 _ Jonboy ____________ (39.19 mm - 20th) 24 75.0 _ Leo97t ____________5.34 ______ 24 38.02 _ Jeff C ______________(38.34 mm - 17th) 25 75.0 _ Don _______________5.22 ______ 25 36.56 _ WalsallWoodSnow _(39.55 mm - 22nd) 26 73.0 _ February1978 _____ 4.77______ 26 36.42 _ J10 ________________ (40.15 mm - 25th) 27 71.0 _ seaside60 _________ 4.56 ______ 27 36.27 _ summer blizzard __ (40.16 mm - 26th) 28 70.0 _ J10 _________________4.36______ 28 35.77 _ syed2878 __________ (41.90 mm - 30th) 29 71.0 _ BornFromtheVoid^_4.14 ______ 29 35.46 _ Polar Gael _________ (34.04 mm - 9th) 30 111.0_ Timmytour ________ 3.94______ 30 34.74 _ Mulzy _____________ (40.15 mm - 26th) 31 69.0 _ Emmett Garland ___ 3.74 ______ 31 34.64 _ BornFromtheVoid _(39.56 mm - 23rd) 32 113.0_ Thundershine _____ 3.53 ______ 32 34.59 _ Frigid _____________ (35.33 mm - 12th)* 33 66.0 _ summer18 _________ 3.32 ______ 33 33.78 _ SteveB ____________ (44.06 mm - 36th) 34 65.0 _ Ed Stone ___________ 3.10 ______ 34 33.01 _ Weather26 _______ (40.80 mm - 27th)* 35 61.0 _ jonboy _____________ 2.88 ______ 35 32.91 _ Emmett Garland __ (42.06 mm - 31st) 36 120.0_ Frigid ______________2.70 ______ 36 32.73 _ Stationary Front ___ (42.21 mm - 32nd) 37 60.2 _ Polar Gael __________2.46 ______ 37 31.38 _ Shillitocettwo _____ (45.04 mm - 39th) __________________________________________ 38 31.32 _ sundog ____________ (47.37 mm - 41st) (6/8) 38 59.0 _ Stargazer __________ 2.24 ______ 39 30.58 _ daniel* ____________ (44.81 mm - 38th) __________________________________________ 40 30.39 _ Diagonal Red Line _ (49.90 mm - 45th)* 39 58.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ______2,03 ______ 41 29.24 _ Timmytour _________(46.51 mm - 40th) 40 56.0 _ Stationary Front ___ 1.82 ______ 42 28.71 _ weather-history ____ (44.04 mm - 35th) 41 127.0_ Let It Snow! _______ 1.67 ______ 44 28.34 _ I Rem Atl 252 ______ (51.04 mm - 47th) 42 50.0 _ Earthshine _________1.19 ______ 46 26.61 _ B87 ________________ (49.74 mm - --- ---) (5/8) 43 52.3 _Thundery Wintry Showers^ 1,10 _____ 47 26.10 _ Stargazer ___________ (48.49 mm - 44th) 44 50.0 _ Mulzy _____________ 1.07 ______ 46 25.95 _ Summer18 _________ (47.96 mm - 43rd) 45 45.0 _ rwtwm _____________0.80 ______ 50 25.10 _ Neil N _____________ (47.79 mm - 42nd) 46 45.0 _ The PIT ____________ 0.68 ______ 52 19.03 _ Earthshine ________ (50.44 mm - 46th)* 47 136.0 _Steve B ___________ 0.48 ______ 54 18.06 _ Let It Snow! ________ (51.37 mm - 48th) (6/8) 48 44.0 _ Bobd29 ____________0.32 ______ 58 15.91 _ rwtwm _____________ (27.90 mm - --- ---) (3/8) 49 30.0 _ BlastFromThePast^_0.02 ______ 63 13.01 _ Thundery Wintry Showers (28.83 mm - --- ---) (3/8) 50 155.0_Robbie Garrett ____ 0.00 ______ 64 12.68 _ WeatherEnthusiast91 (40.37 mm - ---- ) (3/8) __________________________________________66 12.00 _ East Lancs Rain ____ (10.40 mm - --- ---) (2/8) __________________________________________89 _5.28 _ Robbie Garrett _____ (37.50 mm - --- ---) (2/8) __________________________________________95 _ 3.69 _ Thundershine _____ (70.90 mm - --- ---) (2/8) ______________________________________________________________ ^ one day late, for some scores this places the rank below that of a forecast with a slightly higher error. ** Reef would have scored about 4 points with a three-day late penalty applied to a forecast mentioned in the thread at +4 days. * Federico, Frigid, DiagonalRedLine and Earthshine have also played 7 months out of 8. Others with fewer months have the number of months entered in brackets after their other data. The table only lists the annual rankings of those who entered July (and Reef, Federico), however since sundog, DiagonalRedLine and Weather Enthusiast91 entered the August contest the relevant data for them are added to the table. Average errors are only ranked for those who have entered 6 to 8 months as of July. Excel scoring file now available: EWP2020_21_JUL.xlsx

20/21 is a perfectly good summer temp absolutely nothing wrong with that