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I now have mr whippy to my west

Reported of the coast off Worthing today

Well that was definitely the last storm of the day I think, absolute insane day. Gets a 9 out of 10 for me! Anyway my friend has kindly aloud me share some images and also todays top 5 highest rainfall totals from Todays beasts. He will also be uploading a load of footage an time lapse over the coming hours which he has also kindly aloud to share when its ready

Hmmm.. circular and swirly motion overhead

Welcome to America oh wait no Britian.

@staplehurst forecast just published Thanks, Dan. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Jul 2021 ISSUED 08:01 UTC Sun 25 Jul 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan An upper low will linger close to SE Britain on Sunday, the associated cool mid-levels aiding to increase instability, especially in conjunction with surface heating. Fairly extensive low cloud across much of England this morning, with some showery outbreaks of rain in the east and southeast. With time, this should gradually thin and break to allow some brightness to develop. Depending on how much insolation and surface heating can occur, there is scope for 500-900 J/kg CAPE to develop across East Anglia, S / SE England and perhaps the S Midlands. The 00z Nottingham ascent suggests a couple of warm noses that may inhibit deep convection initially, but these should be overcome in East Anglia and SE England given fairly high dewpoints (16-18C) and potential for low 20s Celsius air temperatures in the best of any brightness. Onshore breezes are expected to develop over East Anglia, which combined with the synoptic north/northeasterly flow will create an area of enhanced convergence generally along a NE-SW line between Norwich and London, and perhaps beyond towards Brighton. The exact location of this CZ varies depending on the degree of surface heating. Either way, this will provide the main focus for a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop from around 12-13z onwards. Given very moist profiles with PWAT in the low 30s mm, slow storm motion due to weak mid-level flow (a tendency to drift slowly to the west) and the potential for back-building/training over similar areas, there is a significant risk of localised flash flooding - especially where showers/storms affect urban areas. As such, a SVR has been introduced given the potential for 50-100mm to occur very locally. If any cells can punch closer to 30,000ft then they may be able to utilise some stronger flow aloft to aid with venting and cell longevity, and could potentially become quite electrically active for a time. Some hail is possible, although given the overall weak shear and moist profile this is unlikely to be severe. Across Cen S / SE England, the evolution is less clear given showery outbreaks of rain here this morning and this may inhibit sufficient surface heating. Assuming sea breeze convergence can develop, then these areas will also be at risk of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Again the slow storm motion could result in some localised flooding. In all areas, given fairly low cloud bases, vorticity stretching along convergence zones could allow a couple of funnel clouds or a weak tornado to occur. A few isolated heavy showers / weak thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of Ireland and western Scotland, but most areas here will remain dry. Showers/storms will only slowly fade through the evening hours - indeed new cells could keep developing in southern England until quite late in the evening - and as was the case on Saturday night some elevated thunderstorms could develop over the southern North Sea, although this perhaps less likely to push into East Anglia given an unfavourable/weaker steering flow.

Good Evening everyone Its been a long while since I posted on here, but thought it would be rude not report the amazing weekend we have had down here on the island. Ill start with Friday night, so a long night it was, started hearing distant channel boomers just after sunset an began seeing my first distant lightning as well. As we moved through the night further cells began to develop on the eastern flank of the storms that were directly to my South and South West, as these pushed further North the lightning was beginning to get more and more frequent with the sound of thunder becoming louder slowly but surely. The best part of the night was between 1am and 3 am and began to see absolute beauties, with all sorts of Negative cloud to ground lightning and intra cloud. As these moved right over head the lightning was every 1 to 3 seconds with some incredible anvil crawlers, to which I probably saw my longest with cloud to cloud fork I have ever seen. Despite the thunder not being overly loud due to most of the lightning staying high up in the storms, there was still the odd loud beast from any cg's that travelled down from the very top of storm. In general it was almost like constant booming and grumbling non stop . Overall it was very enjoyable after a long wait of almost 2 years since we had anything that's classed as decent! Now for Today which I actually thought was even better, had a few showers around early Afternoon which produced the odd rumble. Anyway got to around 3pm and some very intense downpours began to develop just to our North and North East, these didn't take to long to start producing lightning, which then quickly became crazy. Saw a few insane positive CG'S with extremely loud thunder, some of the loudest I've heard in years, the thunder and lightning in general became very frequent, to which there was a period for about 3-4 minutes of constant thunder without a break. Not only this, just to the east of where I live had some of heaviest rain the island has probably seen, it was absolute chaos with bad floods in many places, as well as some hail thrown in. These finally cleared away by about 5:30 so they went on for a while! Definitely one of the best day time storms I've experienced! Ps I don't believe it, more cells are going up and I've just heard more thunder!

Day 7 UKMO hints perhaps...not to bad tbh.

This might sound like hyperbole but the cell I can see off to my North is looking potentially severe to me. There has been quite a bit of scud at times and there is far more lightning than the detectors would have you believe. I would keep my out for a possible funnel!

As much as it's been great fun following this back and forth over the last few weeks (months, years?). Maybe it's time to do as Queen Elsa says and let it go?

Holy SH*TI JUST HAD THE LOUADEST THING I'VE HEARD, MY SCREEN FLASHED FROM IT AND IT SOUNDED AS IF A FUEL TANKER EXPLODED IN FRONT OF MY HOUSE

I'm with you on this Mike my boy,what do you think of UKMO at day 6! Trough being pegged back to the NE or still being a pain in the butt..I'll post the day 7 as soon as its available..

What a week for warmth: Weds 27.4C Thurs 26.4C Fri 26.0C Sat 24.9C Luckily for the long afternoon dog walk on Weds the ten minutes walking through Neidpath tunnel at 13C was absolute bliss: Then the rest of the week my MO has been to retire to woodland shade: But apparently according to the telly the 'heatwave' was over days ago. So maybe unsurprising it's 21.1C and blistering sunshine already at 13:00 today....

Couple of good useable days this weekend, not the wash out we feared. Once again the NW summer continues in good stead.

Wow

A couple more pics of funnel clouds spotted today...

The high temps we have had are great if you have absolutely nothing to do or anywhere to go. Had a really decent nights sleep, and had a shower without immediately feeling like I need another one. @Frost HoIIow those 16-18° temps next week are going to feel quite cool after the temps of this week.

Turning into a lovely afternoon. Cloud breaking a little more and 22c. Great for watching the cricket and grabbing a pint or two at the local club.

Here comes the mothership lol.

But its there, clearly and consistently on the NOAA charts . These charts are quite clear, there will be a strong Azores high probably just West of the Azores. There will be a strong Greenland high, there will be a connecting ridge between them that will probably give way allowing a succession of shortwave lows to pass. There will be a mean upper trough to our near Northeast and the UK will be under a negative pressure anomaly with a mean upper airflow from the Northwest. With a pattern like that, there will be no quick route back to anything summery and settled, that pattern is about as far away from a settled warm summery one as you can get. IF these charts are proven to be accurate, then we will be getting cool, fresh, unsettled, showery conditions. Probably no monsoon as the jet stream appears to be heading far South of the UK. The Azores high will go nowhere fast, the Greenland high will go no where fast, the troughing to our near Northeast has nowhere to go. Personally i absolutely HATE this pattern for this time of the year, but its there. So i think we can in all probabilty write off (for settled summery warmth) most of the first half of August, and possibly beyond, that though is speculation. For now ill back these charts for accuracy in the 6-14 day timeframe...... oh, and im doing a bit of research into their accuracy, ill publish when completed. Oh, and im not looking for a protracted argument over this, lets just sit back and see whether these charts are proven accurate or not. I guess im in a win win situation, i want them to be wrong! lol

A few freeze frames from the Friday night storms in Hampshire Distant lightning over the Isle of Wight as seen from Milford on Sea By around 1:30am the storm starts to make landfall after flashing out to sea for about 2 hours And produces a few close CG's Before I then chase it inland where lightning activity weakens a bit but still with some good CG's The video will hopefully be uploaded tomorrow (its nearly 2 hours long!)

Hi all,...not much to add really but we could do with these charts in the winter time,...eek

Loudest bolt I ever heard, happened in Folkestone, but caused damage to the whole se rail network. Through electrical fires. Sounded like a bomb going off, power cut for a few mins, and car alarms left right and centre.

Let's get ready to (g)rumble!

Absolutely we’ve had a good summer so far compared to the South of the country. I fear August may well bring the worst of the summer as per usual in the last 10 years with the exception of last year perhaps but think we’ll still get some warmth mid month.

Yes, hot weather is great if you can chill out in the shade etc with a nice cool drink, or go in the pool or sea, but not very useable for many for other outdoor activities and the nights are just awful for sleeping when it's so hot. I'm looking forward to the period of cooler weather, that's for sure.

Another very good weekend. Far more tolerable heat. Max here 22.5 degrees, fair weather cloud and plenty of sunshine. Cooler at night as well. Looks like we will squeeze another good day out of this excellent spell of weather tomorrow marking the end of a dry 14 day period bar a spot of rain on Wednesday.. I could count the number that fell!

There continues to be tentative signals from the GEFS 6z for an improving weather pattern from towards mid August, especially across southern parts of the u k with increasing Azores high / ridge influence, as I say, it’s tentative because there are still a number of unsettled ensemble members persisting in that extended period...I will be happier when the models reach mid august which will give a better idea of the direction of travel for the last few weeks of this meteorological summer and I’m hoping we see a spell similar to the past week which would at least mean there’s a great end to a predominantly decent summer! ⛈ ? ?

Heard some thunder from a distant storm. Moving away though

Not looking good this week. Much more unsettled and turning even cooler. Temps struggling to get above 16-18C.

Thunder heard from this, its so dark I'm going to head inside.

Timelapse of what developed in a short time here. VID_20210725_132223.mp4

Developments now towards Ashford way.

Severe storms are possible today. @Nick F has issued a storm forecast: Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Round bales of hay home to sheds today after being outside for nearly a week after being baled with forecast rain making it necessary.Neeps are moving on despite very dry soil conditions and heat sustained by the drizzle from the sea fog at nights. Will get lots more growth in them if we get proper rain next week.

Certainly didn’t feel any cooler today and the low cloud cleared pretty early on. Feeling hot in the sun and really starting to notice how dry the ground is with the grass now being pretty brown. Even at sunset it was still really warm on a walk round the village.

View to my SW. Do love seeing them bubble up!

A storm has formed off to the north. Formed really quickly as well.

Might be some more storms developing north/west. Still moving away though.

Warm and sunny now after a cloudy but dry start. Fortunately, both my weekend events - a wedding and outdoor church service - passed off with good weather, for which a large number of people in the area will be grateful!

Like I've said before Mushy,I don't dispute your independent research into those charts...my point as always been all data beyond that 10 day window becomes very uncertain,and there will always be that element of bias towards climatology the further ahead we go. And this as been the answer I have received from other forecasters in the profession! The noaa charts are know doubt a very useful tool,but certainly not the be all and end all of compiling a forecast.

NOAA anomaly chart accuracy.. Ok, ive gone back over the last 3 months of my own postings to discover how these charts have performed. Ive used them 42 times, with the 8-14 day chart being used twice as many times as the 6-10. They have been accurate or very accurate 70% of the time. They have been inaccurate 30% of the time with totally wrong 7 out of 12 inaccurate occassions. Very accurate = 22/42 accurate = 8/42 not very accurate = 5/42 wrong = 7/42 Most of the inaccurate readings came in late June/early July when for some reason there was a cluster of bad predictions. They are very good at picking up the signals for a high pressure dominated pattern, and these signals are picked up at the 8-11 day range as a rule. These findings support the findings @johnholmes did when he first researched these charts. Its true that using the operational runs by themselves anything past around t144 becomes uncertain, but what these charts do do is extend that, so we can see the general pattern with some certainty, most of the time, out to t240, ten days. This is especially true in the 8-10 day timeframe when the two charts share those dates, and the 8-14 day chart follows on from the 6-10 day chart. No model suite is perfect, these arent, but are, id suggest, the most accurate for the timeframe they cover and the stats suggest this to be true.

Next few days could have storms for many, Monday has a low moving close to the east coast, CAPE just continuing to increase throughout the day with developing cells likely to start further west then move east into the evening. Tuesday potentially storms from near enough start to finish as a barbed trough on the fax shown tastily positioned then lowering pressure and a front behind that

What a fantastic summers Sunday, really makes up for last Sunday's over the top, unusable heat. Lawnmowers are going, cars are getting washed, much more activity. So much better.

Personally I think its risky to write of 2-3 or maybe 4 weeks of a season based on current output,thank God Exeter are not going this way currently. I eventually see the troughs lifting with an improving picture towards the South....Hell if we don't see another summery spell next month I will Happily retire to the amateur forecasting home

Nowt cold in this morning's GFS 00Z run, so I wouldn't call it a 'disaster' by any means: And, hoping the GEFS ensembles are in the right ballpark, much more comfortable for sleeping/working/thinking?

Enjoying the beginning of our second week in Port Isaac…lovely to be away from The Surrey Hills for a while! You couldn’t have wished for better weather last week, although at times it was a little too muggy! There was no calamitous breakdown here last night.. not much evidence of anything other than a light shower this morning. A dull morning led to beautifully clear summer skies along the North Cornwall coast by mid afternoon…was pleasantly warm (22°c) walking around Padstow and then much the same on our return to Port Isaac early evening. The forecast here looks much the same for the next few day it stays the same!! The first photo was what I believed was the last decent sunset last night in PI harbour.. very similar this evening! The others show the fantastic scenery we’ve enjoyed this week!

@Luke Best @AldercI think this was the Verwood storm, as seen from Kingston, in the Purbecks. Quite a remarkable cloud, looked like something from the tropics!