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Showing content with the highest reputation on 21/07/21 in Posts
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Over the strict test I did on the anomaly charts sone 10-12 years ago there was little or no difference. For either winter or summer. Tere are, quite often, two periods when the anomalies are less consistent, into August and more especially early autumn. Partly due to the presence of Hurricanes and partly, as in early to mid spring the annual change-over in the northern hemisphere from summer to winter and at the other end winter into summer. But as knocker has suggested each to our own. use as many of the outputs as you feel comfortable with. Remember no one method is 100% correct all the time or even much of the time. Even the professionals will admit that. As an ex one myself, don;t make excuses, try to explain hoenstly what seems to have caused the incorrect forecast and move on. Don't mock other folk or complain they do things differently or like different weather to yourself. end jh sermon.13 points
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Been out chasing all afternoon, what a fantastic day for storms, great to see so many have had their fix today! In Cambridgeshire I got caught in some torrential rain accompanied with pretty large hail which turned the roads to rivers, was a bit hairy for a time. Had loads of thunder and lightning and some lovely cloud structure as I drove back towards Northants with the cell near Thrapston going bonkers for a time. Did a quick time lapse of some rotation just to the south of Cambridge.13 points
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This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles: isn't it amazing how an exaggerated-scale graph can distort people's perception? Average or a touch below, by August 5, hardly represents a signal for a 'washout August'. Whatever the forecast ENSO state will be?11 points
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That's fine, but like the anomalies, or any chart at any level for that matter, they have to be interpreted correctly. And given the complexity of teleconnections determining which is the most pertinent regarding the upper air analysis over the Atlantic/Euro arena is not straightforward by any means. And after that the surface analysis for the UK has to be sorted. I have lost count over the years the number of timesI have seen the comment, 'the models are not picking up the signals' when in fact it is quite possible the signals are not there to be picked up. At the end of the day there is no slam dunk way of sorting the analysis many days in advance but it makes sense to make use of all the tools available because none of them are infallable10 points
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Back end of July looking a bit ropey . Tbf it's been a glorious June and July locally and for much of the North West. Certainly there is a possibility August may begin poorly but equally no reason to believe the month as a whole will be poor. Its been that hot this week I don't actually mind if we have a week or two of something fresher,of course that will likely mean some rain,moreso for the North most likely. Oh well, we don't live in Iberia I suppose.10 points
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today's the day. Hampshire is going to get a cumulus at least!9 points
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I do hope for more days like yesterday in the SE. The videos that have been floating around were just absolutely insane and not something you'd expect coming out of Essex and Kent. Downbursts of hail, tremendous rain. Absolutely mental. A shame these homegrown storm days with that level of intensity are far and between in the SE. I've linked one of the more notable videos I saw yesterday.9 points
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Caught the lightning striking my next door neighbours scaffolding around 50 feet away from where I was watching the storm, I knew it was close as the flash and crack were instantaneous, my previous close call was a tad further away around half a mile, I think this is as close as I want to get! I was safely *Gulp* indoors! ️️ Closest strike I've had in around 35 years of photographing lightning! Gravesend, Kent.9 points
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Not the best outlook this morning if you'd like a bit more sunshine and settled weather...it looks like by the end of the month we will have gone into a -NAO & - AO pattern, with a big Greenland and Arctic high blowing up. If we look at the polar view today, and also at day 10 on the GFS and GEM, you can see a marked change. Never has been a good pattern for decent UK summer weather. Jet will be forced south, and we will be on the colder side. Temperatures will therefore be below average in many areas, perhaps reaching average in drier interludes. August off to a flier again in the UK....8 points
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Picked up an intense storm between Stamford and Corby early evening time. Lots of thunder, occasional visible lightning, the odd big CG with explosive thunder that nearly gave me heart attack and crazy rain, winds and hail. Not as big hail as the storms in Essex but still a good marble sized.8 points
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Based on @staplehurst's success rate so far this year, I've concluded that he is not an exceptionally skilled weather forecaster, but in fact a psychic who can see into the future. I for one welcome our new psychic convective overlord.7 points
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Have taken many photos here from the Surrey-Hants border last few days but not had a chance to upload some explosive convection and distant anvils yet..... Will keep things relevant to the present and attach a few shots taken literally just now from Farnham Surrey area looking South. Some good convection taking place and hefty towers going up but not 100% the conditions exist to take them above and beyond if you know what I mean! Though I wouldn’t be surprised if something goes pop pretty soon over the S Downs direction.....7 points
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The southeast has always been more prone to thunderstorms than the northwest, it is just the way the weather works, it is warmer there and they are closer to the Continent. Places in the east also do well. If anything, over recent years, I have seen a tendency for the southeast to receive less storms than they used to do whereas the Midlands and the North have seen a little more, although there are areas that get more than others, for example Lincolnshire gets more than Cheshire. I am unsure how old you are or if you can drive but waiting around for a storm to hit your house could be a very long wait. There was not a single storm over my house between July 4th 2015 and July 24th 2019, that's just over 4 years! If you do have to sit and wait then maybe consider a move to somewhere like Sleaford.7 points
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Gotta say I always hope for a school holiday washout. Hate kids and yobbos, hopefully a wet, cool August will keep the blighters off the streets.6 points
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For sure, the Gfs 6z operational shows an increasingly poor outlook for summer fans, especially week 2 which looks positively autumnal with lots of green snot around, not wanting to get too technical! ...at least next week the temperatures nudge into the low 20’s c, especially further s / se although there is some rain and thundery showers around, especially across southern u k...and that’s all from me..for now! ? ⛈6 points
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Not very exciting around month's end, is it? But, for those of us who follow the musings of Those Who Cannot Be Named, it's hardly all that surprising:6 points
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Another cracking day here with the temp peaking around 22C in a light Easterly breeze which suits me fine. The breeze did increase for a while in the early evening and brought in the dreaded haar. Hopefully wont take to long to clear in the morning. Better weather in the Hebrides today according to my daughter who is on the last day of her tour around the Hebrides. Was on Skye today enjoying a walk up to the faerie pools where they had a swim and then out to a quiet beach involving a bit of a walk. Even up there there are morons though as this pile if rubbish dumped on the way to the beach shows. Looks like damaged nets and creels dumped by fishermen and then added to by visitors who couldn't be ersed taking their rubbish away with them.6 points
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One of the best storms I've ever had in the UK, including a very close CG that resulted in instant shotgun thunder. 3 nights in Cheddington has beaten the previous 7 years in Aylesbury.6 points
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All the talk on the model thread regarding a breakdown of the heatwave when here on Isle of Lewis,there’s been little if any sunshine for days.Intermittent drizzle has just tempered the fire risk on the moors which has been high for a few weeks also.Currently 12c,cloudy and if there’s no sunshine soon the heat exchange between indoors and outdoors will result in the need for central heating to be put on.5 points
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We haven't had a proper plume event, with the necessary uppers. What interests me, is that it seems almost any high pressure event, regardless of the starting uppers, lasting 2 or 3 days, with unbroken sunshine, now sends us automatically into the high 20s, low 30s. I'm sure this was not always the case. We don't seem to get the 25-28 spells that we used to see, outside of spring and autumn.5 points
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Don’t normally come on here much in the summer months but a fantastic spell of summer weather. I like the heat but having said that it’s a bit extreme sitting with all the windows and doors open at 23.30 trying to cool the house down before bed. I think Glasgow will touch 30c before the week is out and things cool down at the weekend. It really has also been very dry here over the last 3 or 4 months despite a very cold April and May. Been in this house 12 years and the garden has only been drier in 2018. Grass is starting to turn pretty brown. Starting to hear of those on private water supplies seeing their supply run dry.5 points
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