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Have you ever thought about a job with the Samaritans? I like the way the ECM pans out.

Just catching up, the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks pretty decent, as do most of the models in the short / mid range...this weekend indeed looks very warm for the majority, some cooler air spreading s / sw early next week but pressure staying on the high side, beyond approx day 10 the 6z mean turns into a north / south split with the south being predominantly decent...so, yes, the prolonged hot stuff the models were showing a day or two ago have downgraded but it still looks a decent outlook for many and doesn’t preclude upgrades to something hotter again further ahead?...just my amateur opinion..hope it’s a fair and balanced if not likeable assessment!!!.

possibly my best ever display....to date anyway, lol

Watch out, ladies . . . Shakey's coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

One at the last chance salon with a bit of Massive Attack

12z mean is decent enough.. Still plenty of settled conditions around for much of the run. I think when you consider the biblical and dangerous rainfall endured in parts of Western Europe this week,we are very lucky! I won't bore you any longer,have a very good evening.

Smartarse!

Not as good as the display a few weeks ago, but still pleasing to the eye...

Impressive tonight.

NOAAS are consistent, and havnt changed much. both charts follow theirprevious evolution. Next weeks shallow surface low tracks just west of Biscay, high pressure remains in place to our near Northeast on the 6-10 dayer,. That suggests a return of the hoter thundery conditions with a southeasterly draft. The 8-14 dayer suggests the shallow surface trough driftes Eastward and covers a larger are including southern UK. High pressure to our North weakens, the Azores high strengthens. Warm but showery and thundery, cloudiest in the East, pleasant warm in the West., driest in the north. Not too bad overall unless its 30c+ and clear blue sunshine you want.

And now it's time for the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles, of which the operational is running cool! Oh dear, some of those 2m temps look dire . . . Praise be, to Those Who Cannot Be Named!

Took this at 02.40 just before getting clouded out for the Morning

Think the post I was gonna quote has disappeared...but regarding the Weather apps take no notice...everytime they update the conditions have changed from sunny/sunny spells to cloudy again..today here for instance is well wide of the mark again..I really wish they would abolish them for good as some folks who have 0% percent knowledge on weather are relying upon them! What does the 6Z mean tell us moving further on! Well as its been already stated plenty of fine and possibly Hot conditions this Weekend...what next! It cools down a tad with a shower risk, but I would imagine still plenty of fine conditions for some. The potential is there for conditions to become somewhat more unsettled towards months end as pressure drops off. Tentative signs perhaps of this being short lived as conditions improve again as we enter August! So the wax and wane situation of this Summer so far perhaps continues.

Second best display of the season I had seen last night in Dublin. Had just rushed out to my local park last minute so not great images.

Gorgeous ecm right to the end!!!!hot humid and sunny with fluffy clouds around at times!!!mid 20s throughout for my area!!

It isn’t really a trough, more a combination of a decayed cold front and a very slack pattern over the U.K. producing convergence zones for showers. Given pressure is somewhat high than the couple of events this week then it wouldn’t surprise me if this was nothing more than a couple of scattered showers whilst most simply see a bit more high cloud or lower level stuff bubbling up in the afternoon. A decent trend at least to make far less of that system, though reasonable agreement on a cold front sinking south late on Sunday into Monday. The ECM/UKMO look very decent, whilst the temperatures will probably peak over the weekend, the following week looks decent under light and variable winds, the temperatures may start to lift a little again as the pattern begins to drift east.

Decent end to the week on the ECM run. It does show cloud cover almost everywhere on both Thursday and Friday, but i think it's being too pessimistic again. Temperatures mid twenties, up to around 26-27c in places.

I may be no expert but most of the ECM 12z operational looks summery to me, sure there’s a blink and you miss it cooler interlude early next week but then temperatures rocket again for a time and even at the end the uppers (850’s) look respectable for mid summer (ish)! ⛈

GEFS ensembles seem okay:

Here's the very latest MetO look at how the computer models are shaping up. Essential viewing, methinks? And the GFS 06Z for Monday; the timing/positioning of the cold front could be problematic?

Not as good as the display a few weeks ago, but still pleasing to the eye... Lovely sunny start to the day, already 17.1c. Light variable winds. Pollen count atrocious

Don't really know what to make of this morning's GEFS 00Z temp. ensembles. Other than that, at its coldest point, the operational run is an outlier:

It's very dependent on where the cold front sits... UKV still has 850 temps at 15c Monday afternoon which translates to this heat, with the decaying front still in the north. ECM has much faster progress, so while it's still a warm day, it's nowhere near 32c: Latest fax appears to hold the heat in the S/SW into Monday like the UKV, latest Heathrow forecast has 32c Sunday and 31c Monday. Guess we will have to see... Heathrow (Greater London) weather WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Heathrow 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

Holy crap monday has improved drastically!!!was showing 23 or 24 degrees for the midlands on the 15z but now its more like 31!!!!

Best here so far this year ...

Anyone complaining about this evenings ecm is ridiculous!!!i love it from start to finish!!!!warm humid loads of sun and dry weather!!!

Always been fascinated by flying ants day, and its link to the weather! It usually is in the first thundery day after a heatwave earlier, or if not, as this year, the first really hot day. Just my observation, anyone else have any views? ECM T168 is a good chart: Nothing dirty coming round from the east, and potential for later plume from the west. Edit, I think the first time this summer, I’ve looked at the uppers, there hasn’t been the need thus far, anyway, all good at T168:

Netweather's GFS run. Make of it what you will.

Was supposed to start cloudy................it hasn't Already a absolute crackerjack of a day

The breakdown being put back is not surprising given the increased signals for the MJO to propagate into the Pacific into week 2. Here’s the vp200 charts from the good Dr Ventrice: Ec 240 mean GEFS Pretty good agreement on a stalling trough to the SW and heights holding firm just to our NE. If it does stray a bit closer then it could kick off. CAPE charts here from the GEM Jet stream profile at same timeframe, could be some more organised action there. We haven’t seen any high end thunderstorms this year - heavy thundery rain (Hammersmith et al) notwithstanding. Speculative at this range of course. The odd op run has blasted the Atlantic through the block at day 8 ish but it’s not supported by the tropical signals and past experience of these set ups by many of us on here would suggest resilience to be the name of the game. NOAA on board with the pattern outlined above. The proximity of the cut off low is the yet to be determined factor. Later in the period AR or +NAO types prevailing perhaps. Still, building evidence we could eek 11-13 days out of this very settled spell. Perhaps a cold front flirting down across N areas on Monday as the high orientates itself towards its N Sea landing point.

I understand EXIT are recruiting just now?

Yep it’s been a decent day, not wall to wall sunshine but it felt pretty warm this afternoon. temperature here reached 24c before the full cloud moved in, we may have squeezed a 25c if it had stayed away an hour or so longer but more than warm enough for a working day and likely to be beaten over the next few days. down south can keep its forecasted 30+c, the mid 20’s will do find sat outside a couple of pubs at the seaside this weekend.

ECM 0z is dry virtually for the next 10 days. GFS 0z

Looking at the latest Sat pictures, NW England doing ok today for ☀ Story of the summer so far, beating the SE by a country mile ! Good on you lot. Rain moving in again in The Austrian Alps and temps on the cool side. At least missed the real heavy rain that is affecting Germany. C.

Stunning morning here, view from the field cam

GEM is a classic for storm lovers with a lot coming up from France along with homegrown storms across the country, GFS goes a lot more Conservative though so this could either be a classic or a dud.

Looks like i shall be delivering in my hawaiin shorts on sunday!!!!

Every day we've got closer to Sunday....the UKV has just got hotter and hotter! Look how many 30/31c areas there are on the latest forecast! I should also add that it has 32c forecast for Monday too in S Wales/Pershore area:

Cmon ecm!!!joins the ukmo!!gfs can go do one lol!!

Fantastic ukmo this morning!!!!!cmon ecm jump ship to the ukmo

Let's have a look at the morning model runs then... ARPEGE now showing 29c in multiple areas Saturday, and 31c in the London area Sunday afternoon, and very warm or hot across a large area: UKMO still looking good until Thursday at least next week. Trough approaching from the SW making slower progress and high pressure hanging on. Remaining warm or very warm with very light winds: GFS much more aggressive with the cooler air, though temperatures still holding in the low to mid twenties through the week in varying locations. It makes a little bit of a cold front dropping south on Monday with this upper trough, though most areas seeing very little in the way of rain: GEM fairly similar, though locations of where it'll be warm or cooler vary between models. Let's see what ECM says.

Today's weather was disappointing; it was supposed to be sunny, but it stayed cloudy the entire day; however, it was still warm, reaching 21.5°C. The weather for Thursday appears to be sunny and hot, so let's hope it's correct this time. Unfortunately, the weather forecast for the weekend has changed, and it is now more overcast and cooler than it was saying on Monday and Tuesday. The good news is that high pressure is expected to persist for the majority of next week, meaning that we will remain dry and settled.

High of 23.4c, light to occasionally fresh winds, oodles of sunshine. Perfect summer's sky. Kids loving it. Pity the Cetirizine and Vaseline hayfever combo failed completely, spent most of the day sneezing and the kids laughing at the perpetually dripping neb. Oh how I loath hayfever! Edit - noticing some very high level cloud just now as the sun is setting, has the potential for being a good night for a Noctilucent display.

Evening all An increasingly pleasant day here in lowland East London after a dull start. With 4-6 days of fine weather now certain, it would be remiss of me not to look for a potential breakdown (it's what we all do on here, summer or winter, isn't it?). Tonight's T+216 view takes us to Friday July 23rd: 12Z 850s tonight from ECM, JMA, GEM, GFS OP, GFS Control: Last night, I mentioned three scenarios in the T+216 output - looking at the 850s in isolation, it looks like the "plume" will get very close to southern and south-eastern Britain but it's not going to quite make it. GFS OP and GEM look very similar at T+216 in terms of bringing the core of heat closest (the 500s look more different). The trough to the south-west doesn't deepen in situ as you'd want to see if you want the hot air to be advected from the south - instead, it dissipates or is drawn into a broad European trough cutting off the hot air flow. ECM, as it did last night, treads a half way house and, as it did last evening, holds more substantial heights to the north east and by T+240 north. JMA and GFS Control keep any heat well to the south and east though the 500s are again very different. I'm struggling to see prolonged and noteworthy heat in the immediate future - let's be blunt, 30c is not the big ticket it was twenty years ago. are we going to see 35c in the coming days? I can't see it in truth. Don't get me wrong - it will be very warm and very pleasant summer conditions for the majority of the British Isles and, especially for the south, a welcome change from weeks of poor weather but it's not exceptional (nearly 2 inches of rain in an hour on a Monday afternoon is exceptional).

On holiday this week so took the opportunity to get up Lochnagar today. Bit cloudy when we were at the summit but otherwise a lovely day and can confirm the 25c reading at Aboyne!

Just released, this chart support the ECM @ 240 ... which if nothing else is interesting.

And goes on well at T192, while others have commented on how this settled spell might end, it is worth considering also how it might continue?

EC looks great , really pleased for the Irish North and South who look the big winners ,initially at least. the low to the SW might need watching..

Lovely day today, one of those days where it's got sunnier as the day went on. High of 21C, now currently 18C with clear blue skies and feeling very pleasant outside. Ideal conditions for walking, sunbathing, gardening, anything outdoors really. This summer has had the most days in the low 20's I've ever seen (my favourite temperature in summer), usually it's just a few days of 25-30C and then atlantic dross the rest of the time. It's the best summer I can ever remember for pleasant, comfortable, sunny and dry weather. If I was being picky I'd prefer more sunshine with cooler nights, but certainly can't complain about this summer up here. It's like a cooler version of 2018.

I think it is always worth bearing in mind we live in the UK ,not Spain. End of July is a good two weeks away.