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Evening all Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks) 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures. You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts. Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend. Early next week and beyond. So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely. Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there. 05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all. Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average. Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day. This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending) Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course! Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis. It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum. I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course. All the best to you all and take care!

Tornado in Barking.

Video during tornado

Funnel cloud from Essex

Moving onto the 1990's and June Thunderstorms have lifted the following from my book, hopefully some of you remember some of these years and can put your own stories to them. 1993 Mostly fine and dry, but there were some very violent thunderstorms and heavy rain midmonth (9-16th). A thunderstorm gave 125 mm of rain at Culdrose (Cornwall); 92 mm in two hours early on the 9th. Flooding in Helston. Hailstone damage to glass In Northants. 175mm on the 10th at Llandudno, 140mm of it in 4 hours; flooding over the area and in Conwy. 121 mm in 2.5 hours at North Weald, with much flooding. 92mm in three hours at Epping. There was more very heavy rain over Wales and the southwest on the 11th and 12th 1994 Violent thunderstorms on the 24th over the southeast as a cold front moved east. Lightning damage and death. 27mm of rain in 11 minutes at Wokingham; large hailstones; winds of 47mph, and a gust of 62mph at Herstmonceux (E. Sussex). The storm activity was preceded by rapid development of altocumulus castellanus on the night of the 23-24th. 1996 A plume of hot air up from Spain gave a very hot first week - the earliest such hot spell since 1976. Temperatures were hot on the 5th and 6th; Atlantic fronts brought more cloud to parts on the 7th, although the SE remained sunny. 33.1C at St. James's Park, Westminster, London, on the 7th; a temperature this high so early in the year only happens a few times this century. As a cold front moved south in the evening on the 7th there were violent thunderstorms, particularly from Dorset through the East Midlands into East Anglia. There were 8 damaging hail swaths. 30mm hail, a tornado in Basingstoke and Sherborne, 73.9 mm of rain at Wantage, 30 mm widespread, squally winds, golfball-sized hail, lightning strikes causing power loss, and perhaps best of all, ball lightning in a factory in Tewkesbury, where it exploded with an orange flash. 1998 There was a severe thunderstorm in Reading in the afternoon of the 13th, accompanied by a damaging tornado. 1999 Violent thunderstorms, with notable lightning displays, over much of the country on the night of the 26-27th. Will put up the 2000's over the weekend

Yes I did say the trough could be troublesome! But it's looking like a South Midlands Southwards event for the best part...going on what I'm seeing this morning and the latest local forecasts..so further North should be in for some rather nice conditions. A decent EC46 moving forward also with a signal for Blocking looking quite strong! Yes I search for snow all Winter long,but I don't get downbeat over it not occurring! I'm always hopeful another bite of the cherry will come along if a fail occurs,which it does often! Trust me its less stressful in the long run. @Mr Frost David...Great news,don't be a stranger mate...do keep dropping in occasionally,your input is always enjoyed.. all the very best my Scottish friend. So the next 5 or so days look mixed towards the South,with rain and potential thundery downpours...further North perhaps the Midlands Northwards looks to be more settled with sunny spells and remaining warm.. Further North still and it looks quite glorious! As a UK forecasts goes,it's not half bad at all.

Chance of a weak storm late afternoon today many in the South East but also across Midlands and Wales. Modelling is a bit mixed as to where and any storms are likely to be more spring like with temperatures below 20C. Forecast SkewTs show marginally convective environment in the South East also glow level convergence zone and not really a convective environment in the Midlands and Wales. Some cloud cover and temperature forecasts are clearly wrong on some models showing peak temperatures below current readings equally the development of the low across Central parts is different on different models. BBC and MetOffice charts suggest Low topped storm development in the low pressure tail over north midlands. Key areas to watch are London and perhaps Birmingham to Manchester area. Not really expecting much more than weaker storms with low temperatures. Things complicated by global models which tend to hold maritime island (UK) temperatures too low during peak summer and the usual East West movement speed being wrong. When a low pressure is forecast to become enhanced over the UK then forecast modelling tends to struggle so worth a radar watch with a risk of a weak spout like tornado but there is every chance nothing will appear either as its not a strong convective environment. Cloud cover ,heat island effects , low tropopause, surface convergence all likely to play a part, worth a heads up though.

Well you’ll be a great miss to this forum mate. Fantastic opportunity though. All the very best and I will try to carry the flag for the NW!

Big test for the EC46 coming up. Astonishingly, every single day up to early August is forecast to reside in the blocking category... Notice the red boxes at the bottom of the chart, all red.Indicating the favoured regime for that period, even if other regimes are possible. For the most part, the ‘blocking’ regime in summer would generally be a signal for a blocking ridge to bring dry, settled weather to the U.K. (obviously small troughs like next week’s pest don’t necessarily alter the overall blocked pattern ‘judgment’ by the algorithms so southern parts could still get v unlucky and be wet but it’s the exception, not the rule in the blocking regime). The z500s are dominated, unsurprisingly, by high pressure and, were this to come off, Northern U.K. at the very least would have a memorably dry period ahead...S parts too most likely too. W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 Apart from a wobble a week back this has been an increasingly consistent signal not only from the 46 but across the seasonal models and I have been tracking in for some time. NCEP heights to the east GLOSEA heights to the west BUT blending the seasonals together the common theme was blocking and that is what the extended range now shows. Perhaps a push of the tropical signal through the maritimes playing a part here? Too early to call It but were the above to come off it would broadly be another hit for the seasonal modelling and a memorable mid summer would await! No arguments from NOAA in the mid term!

Looking through the GEFS 12z there are clearly mixed signals, there’s some great charts, some average charts, and some poor charts (what’s new) ...some ensembles blow up a few autumnal looking lows...BUT..generally speaking, the mean indicates a good deal of warmth and the weather pattern looks very slow moving / slack with ridges and weak (ish) troughs drifting around...and there’s scope for anticyclonic conditions to develop as well as heat potential, even a plume could be on the menu in early July...there, I think that covers all bases!!! ?... ? ⛈ ? ️

Oh i expect those "mushynomalies" (lol) to be very close to what we get... the latest 6-10 day chart i posted above an hour or so ago actually builds the high pressure to our near Northeast compared to yesterdays 6-10 day chart. Their own confidence rating is 5/5 for that chart, so i cannot see them being far out. They show high pressure dominance throughout the 6-14 day range, we just have to rid ourselves of the current pesky feature and summer will arrive.

And another one

OMG !!!!!! MASSIVE Bolt in Bournville. Dont know where it hit but its the loudest ive ever heard. Made me leg it out of the front room

Feeling hot, hot, hot in the far away fantasy land range. Maybe hints of a Spanish plume teaming up with a scandi high? Probly not but its nice to hope. GFS looking much more pleasing in the long term today.

There’s some good signs for early July from the GEFS 6z! ...is it all good?..nope, there’s some crap signs too (just for balance)...but...being positive.. ...this decent summer so far could continue to be..decent!

That’s another excellent ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, did we ever see a mean like that in May?...nope, it was cold trough dominated crap!...this on the other hand is very summery towards the end!...yes it’s a mean so it’s broad brushstrokes and lacks the finer detail but I continue to have a good feeling about early July.

A perfectly reasonable set of GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles . . . Well, sixteen days' between +7 and +11C (T850s) look okay to me, living over here in Suffolk. Though In Bournemouth, no doubt, incessant rain and sleet will be the order-of-the-day! Some folks, it seems, still seem to think the models control the weather!

ECM 12z gets there in the end but it is painful! T240: Suppose if this is the destination (terminus!) as suggested by some of the longer range models, we have to suck up next week and hope it happens into July. One other thing occurs to me. Where is the Atlantic? When did we last really see it? It wasn’t a force through the whole of last winter, and there is still plenty of blocking around now, yes not always in the right place (May and right now). Suppose this continues through the rest of summer, as it seems likely from the longer range models that a Azores - Scandi ridge might take hold and give us all some much needed summer heat. What then for winter? With the east QBO as well, we could be looking at a high likelihood of a blocked winter pattern pretty much from the get go, and a weak vortex giving a higher than average chance of a SSW at some point too. My money’s on a proper cold one this year! But that’s months away. GEM decent by T168 by the way:

I can't see the reason for so much whining . . . Even out at Day 15, we have T850s ranging from around +4C in the Western Isles, to +10-ish in the far Southeast. I'm quite happy with a showery day and c. 25C temperatures? The apparent need (among some) for a constant SLP of 1060hPa and afternoon maxes of 95F is something I've always found baffling -- even 1976 didn't provide anything like that!

Matt Taylor just now confirming the low in the Bay of Biscay will be a player through Sunday and into next week. A rare Summer set up whereby the NW gets the best of any drier warmer weather, unfortunate for those in the South short term. On a brighter note the EC mean supports a general drying out and warming up for the south longer term.

Once the next few days are gone, today's GFS 00Z is pretty good. I have woken up to worse!:

Storm clouds in the distance, also a lovely evening fancy a storm right now.

Got to be one of the strangest 850hPa charts I've ever seen- how unlucky can you get! The Atlantic is dead, very warm air basically surrounding us and yet an incredibly shallow trough gets trapped over the Channel. I've seen some bizarre developments over years of model watching but this is right up there.

TBH the UKMO is a chart id love to see in winter... Especially off a frigid continent,-15 uppers, snow showers blowing in off a frozen North Sea ... Back to reality , hopefully warm in late June..

Think we are on the edge of that CZ here - some very vertical towers going up, but they just don’t seem to be sustaining enough.

The latest GFS run backs this up to a large degree. In any case this coming week looks good north of the Midlands and unusually better the further north and west you go. Anyone heading to the west of Scotland next week will be thrilled I'm sure.

ECM has been about as bullish as you can get in suggesting a strong Scandi high will dominate in July - this now starting to show in the extended clusters. ECM average this morning showing we may have to wait until Friday before the last remnants of this damned trough dissipate. It's now a question of how wet it will be in the south. It's also not too often you see a summer temperature profile like this in the UK - but this will be typical for much of the next 5 days. The far NW, Scotland and Ireland the place to be for a very fine week....while us folks down south could endure a miserable week of rain and suppressed temps. Enjoy your warm week in the sun people of the north!

A possibly exciting period of weather coming up, but it treads on a very fine line as to where the cut off low ends up. If it manages a ‘Fujiwara’ effect with the other cut off low further out west over the next 48-72 hours instead of heading East underneath us, that will change everything, possibly giving rise to a return of heat. I do love a cut off low to the SW, and probably my favourite type of weather. The best rut to get stuck in! Warm, humid and thundery!!

Cold enough for something wintry over the highest tops of the Cairngorms into to early hours of Friday..

Ironically I work in Romford Monday to Fridays and left for home to Leigh On Sea at 5pm today (2 miles from the Tornado) I did notice some massive TCU building just south of NE London probably over the Thames around 530pm. One thing that did happen today was convective temps reached 23c at one point whereas Brick and Nick and Dan said 20c was needed for deeper convection to occur so that threshold was met easily. I believe this was a weak Supercell that did indeed split near Brentwood and right moved. Interestingly where the Tornado occured had no rainfall as most of the precip was sheared away in the FFD to the North of the Tornado site again promoting a proper Supercell storm with updraught downdraught seperation and rotation pretty much from the get go. It was severe in 5 scans (25mins) and hail was reported in the North quadrant of the storm. So picturing this storm in my head and knowing the area very well the Tornado would have occured under the RFB (Rain Free Base) in the South West part of the storm and VERY Early in the Storms life cycle. There was also an earlier right mover near Burnham on Crouch around 4pm which again produced a Funnel 3/4 of the way to the ground, conditions today were clearly condusive to rotating storms. Spreads were good as well with 72/59 widely across the SE and Easterly surface inflow winds. More of this please this summer but hopefully out in the countryside and not built up areas

Those charts are not to be trusted- they were showing biblical amounts of rain for the weekend a couple of days back and in the south it now looks like many places will stay dry tomorrow at least. The Met Office never showed a huge amount of rain over the weekend even when people on here were talking about how dire it was going to be.

Completely obscured by trees but I'm facing that essex cell from Bromley. I hope someone from the A12 corridor has hail footage

Awh no that's gutting, coming from someone who passed second-time and very nearly quit after not passing the first i'd recommend him to rebook asap and get back out on the road in all weathers to get a little more practice in. I was confident after just 30 hours but in hindsight it's experience that's the best teacher. On a plus note before Autumn the DVSA are looking at introducing longer examination hours to allow 20,000 more tests per month so keep looking out for dates as i've heard they could be starting as early as 6am, finishing at 6pm.

Out to Day 10, and a right stonker is in the making; only Greenland, and its adjacent seas, under sub-5C T850s?

Sometimes @BrickFielder the best storms I see are in cooler atmospheric environments. My best storm of the year so far was in Mid-May - not frequent lightning admittedly, but the majority of the dozen or so strikes were positive, with exceptionally loud peels of ground shaking thunder (making me jump, alarms going off, etc). It had been cloudy for much of the day and temperatures were a puny 14-15C or so with not much humidity to speak of in the run up. I’d take another storm like that any day

To your last sentence, and it’s not so often I get to say this, but, “not for me!”

Had a good 10 hour dollop of rain yesterday so that gonna make it a relatively dry june now rather than a very dry june but looks likely that be our last meaningful rain for the rest of the month (unless we get any today)

Few low-confidence SLGTs it seems Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM! Very wet: UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week: GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

Actually I am hoping the weather will be our saviour as many areas of the world are experiencing drought .Parts of the midwest which my son watches online are really hot already. Hopefully we will be one of the last areas to see crops fail as the world warms. To be honest food prices too have only one way to go and thats up as all our input costs are rocketing and even the supermarkets will not be able to keep a lid on that as the option to source from abroad more cheaply recedes due to climate change and the UK with very few genuine friends in the world. Add in covid and you have the perfect storm where just in time delivery fails to supply the market. On a weather note its dull and cool (9c) this morning and we had some nice moderate rain yesterday afternoon and early evening, crops just lapping it up. This rain is probbably worth a four figure sum to me especially the spring barley which was starting to burn on the gravelly hillocks.

All the best for the new chapter of your life. Will miss your postings. Enjoy the sun

Some pretty extreme weather across western north America continuing. Looks like it's the Pacific Northwest's turn with Vancouver looking like beating their all time record high temp either on Sunday or Monday. Look at this anomaly with the 850's over 20C above normal. You don't often see this. That's like us having 27C uppers over our area as our average at this time of year is about 6C.

quite photogenic

Wish you and your family all the very best with your move my friend. I love the states particularly Florida it’s a great place to live. I’m envious thanks for your posts as always look out for them. Happy times ahead for you all.

Estofex had a level 3 warning out for today, warning of possible tornadoes. Scary, hope no one was hurt. Here’s a pic of the tornado

Boa tarde As per the other day, the heat is ratcheting up once more this week here an hour from the Sliver coast in Portugal. A probable 32/33C today and a notch up to 34/35C tomorrow. Your summary is a very good one - I realise that there is bound to be a lot of micro analysis when it comes to the UK and regional interests, but these other commentaries paint a rather bleaker reality than the bigger macro scale suggests. I would be encouraged by the recent holding pattern not having gone a step further with the Atlantic ridging pattern of late, which is wholly typical of a lull in the tropical>extra tropical cycle. The key word here is 'cycle' - and July continues to hold widespread promise for those who like warmth/heat in their summer. What is key is that peak summer wavelengths, allied to the lack of any sustained -ve inertia within the atmosphere, and which was covered in a lot of analysis the other day, look set to augment a subtle eastward shift in the pattern, with time, and set up something of a weak -NAO signature in the Atlantic, but crucially disconnected to a mainly +AO polar profile. The main jet stream to the north, as accurately depicted in the quoted summary, having that slight split flow aspect to reinforce the weak troughing close towards the Azores area. Once in place, there should be dalliances between the troughing to the west and south west and the ridging over and to the east. This implies thundery interest from time to time but with a southerly or south easterly vector implied, this is a much more appealing prospect than the short term pattern of downpours within a cooler regime that looks set to cover southern england and the immediate continent across the channel. The noise from some quarters suggesting cyclonic impacts for UK/NW Europe heading into next month continues to look overstated to me - and requires a wider overview of the GSDM diagnostic than any narrower formulaic perceptions based on AAM levels - without looking at the actual wind-flow plots and seeing where the wind-flow disparities lie. An attempt was made to do this the other day in some detail. . Vey encouraging that extended range NWP continues to evolve its modelling identifying the suggested diagnostic (as mentioned last time around) - and points to greater Scandinavian influences in the peak summer month to come. Still very much on watch for some significant heat to build northwards through southern and south western europe and expand thereafter northwards. Such an evolving pattern is ideal for such a progression In the meantime therefore, don't let micro scale details that are shorter term cloud the bigger picture. Enjoy the summer

Don’t know about you but I’d rather have “boring grey cool crap” than unbearable 40°C+ temps and destructive tornados.

It's been a rubbishy rainy sort of a day today with the rain never being heavy but pretty constant throughout, and so it's also been dull and chilly for June. Maximum temperature was 15.1deg.C at 11:43 up from a minimum of 12.0deg.C at 07:49 and currently 13.1deg.C, humidity is 92%, wind is 1 to 2mph south-southwesterly, pressure is 1018.9hPa falling slowly, there's been 7.0mm of rain today so far and cloud cover is a thick 8/8.

Dull and humid this morning but rain now on and its cooler.Overnight the local badger thought he"d do some digging under the old hedge.

I was due to take my test in Surrey on 16th September 1968, but the day before was the day of the 1968 Surrey Floods, and needless to say, I didn't make it to the test centre in Redhill. I took the test some 6 weeks later in Sutton and passed, and am still on the road 53 years later. Yes, sun has decided to make a late entry but will the clouds part sufficiently to be able to see the Super Moon tonight?