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Quite a marked change from yesterday's 00Z ECM ensembles. Only about 10-20% ensemble members now entertaining the UK trough next weekend, most members now backing a ridge just to the west and settled conditions, though never particularly hot.

Morning Well that was a lengthy breakdown of the hot weather that ended mid-week that could have had much potential with upper trough stuck to the west and several waves of storms sweeping northeast across western Europe. But because of the southwesterly rather than southerly element to the steering flow throughout the last few days, it's only Kent and coastal areas of East Anglia that have benefitted from thunder and lightning with elevated storms that moved out of northern France. Quite a big disappointment for most given 3-4 days of potential, just grey skies and rain. Doesn't look like anything worth getting excited about today and tomorrow, a few showers popping up along breeze convergence developing along southern coastal counties of England later once early murk and light rain clears, but no CAPE showing. Tomorrow a low risk of thunder in showers pushing north over the Channel,. Then looking quiet convective-wise for the rest of the week, as the flow comes off the Atlantic

To Give you an idea just how pathetic our little Island has become I have lifted some artifacts from a book I have detailing June Thunderstorms over the decades. 1980 There was a major outbreak of thunderstorms in the north and west on the 5th. Deaths by lightning; tornado at Nairn wrecked a caravan site. 67mm of rain in two hours caused flooding at Darwen (Lancs.). More storms on the 14th: 24 mm of rain in 10 minutes at Sudbury. Widespread storms every afternoon from the 22nd-26th. On the 25th hail lay to a depth of 25cm in Sevenoaks 1982 Much of the rain came from thunderstorms. King's Lynn had 13 thunder days that month. Some notable thunderstorms at the start of the month, which began hot and humid. Thuderstorms on the afternoon of the first led to flooding arounf Huddersfield. There was 90 mm of rain in two hours at Wooton Bassett (Wilts) on the 2nd. 92 mm of rain at Cheshunt (Herts.) and 61mm at Enfield on the 4th. Cheshunt then had a further 35mm of rain on the 5th (that meant twice the normal monthly rainfall in two days). Thunderstorms were widespread on the 4-6th, with lightning deaths. 39 mm of rain in 25 minutes at Stoke-by-Clare (Suffolk) on the 6th; 96 mm at Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 6th. At the same time, 30C was reached at Tummel Bridge on the 5th. There was a notable hailstorm in Bristol on the 18th. Two days of rain over northern England on the 21-22nd, with low daytime temperatures of only 10 degrees. The area around the Humber had 100 mm of rain in 75 hours in that spell. Heavy downpour in Epping Forest on the 25th causing muddy flooding. On the 26th a severe storm in north London led to the death of three children by drowning in a swollen stream at Hendon. 36mm at Stanmore, most of it in half an hour. A severe hailstorm at Ludlow (Shrops.) on the 26th resulted in foot-deep hail drifts. 1983 Some notable thunderstorms. As hot air from the south met cool air from the northeast, there were some severe thunderstorms on the 5th over the south coast, with hail reported up to 75 mm, although most were around 30mm. There was a small tornado near Brighton, leading to a crabfall. The storm clouds were reported as an eery green colour. Coal picked up by a small tornado fell on Poole during a storm. The cold front associated with the depression led to more thunder and hailstorms on the 7th, particularly over Wales and the west: hailstones 75 mm in diameter were reported in a storm in Manchester, with spectacular lightning. Much damage. There were some unsettled westerlies in second week. It was then warm and settled before more severe thunderstorms on 23rd, with103 mm of rain near Alresford (Hants.). 1984-1987 Thundery hot and humid weather most of these Junes with Plume events impacting the United Kingdom 1988 & 1989 These 2 years saw little in the way of June Thunderstorms but a Heavy Hailstorm near Chatham on the 6th June 1989 the highlight on a very thundery day for the Uk. I can put the 1990's and 2000's in as well if people want and also have all the events from Julys and Augusts if anyone is interested

There’s quite a lot of Azores ridging indicated on the GEFS 0z mean, it does wax and wane but it’s still a decent mean with some jolly nice looking perturbations which may mean that July gets off to a good start?!

The ECM 0z ensemble mean again looks ridgy..especially later which is pretty much what I said about last evenings 12z?...good continuity there..if anything it looks better than the previous run although I should be comparing like for like..slaps myself on the wrist! ...perhaps it’s not a bad outlook by any means ?...longer term it might even become a good outlook..especially further south!.. ...just my amateur opinion!

When I saw the Ukmo 12h @T+144 hours I thought wow, surely this is too good to be true?...but then I saw the Gem 12z at day 6 and moving forward through 7, 8 & 9...actually they are pretty much the same in terms of an anticyclone gradually building in and becoming centred slap bang over the u k!..and there are some GEFS 12z perturbations which look similar, there’s certainly support from the mean for ridging in that timeframe..so why not a proper high bringing settled, summery conditions nationwide?... ...time will tell!

ICON 12z has high pressure starting to dominate the UK weather from mid week, hangs around too, although a trough may affect the SE bringing some thundery outbreaks. Good run within the envelope of what is possible at the moment.

Could be a very intresting day here. Current Temp is 27°C and dew point is 17°C. Storms should arrive here between 7 and 9 pm CET and most models suggest a derecho/bow echo type of event although some models like ICON showing chances of supercell development. According to the german weather service (DWD) main threats are hail up to 5 cm in diameter, gusts over 120kph and potential of local flooding. Tornadoes can't be ruled out.

For what its worth, i agree with your assessment, and petes "good feeling" . Most "good" summers dont get going until July, so something should start to evolve soon. I am a bit concerned though on the 8-14 day chart that the high in the West Atlantic is expected to strengthen. That will delay any pressure build properly over the UK id have thought and keep us in a cooler NW upper flow. But no disaster..

Finally, some rain. Hopefully will be enough to perk the grass verges up that are starting to go straw coloured.

This cell near Ulm has some serious rotation in it: Radar: Radar HD+, Regenradar vom 20.06.2021, 21:05 Uhr - Ulm KACHELMANNWETTER.COM Regenradar Ulm - Wetterradar-Bild vom 20.06.2021, 21:05 Uhr - So gut aufgelöst, dass man Strukturen von Superzellen erkennen kann. 3D mesocyclone: Mesozyklone Nummer 19563 WWW.METEOPOOL.ORG Informationen und 3D-Ansicht der Mesozyklone Nummer 19563 EDIT: Pic of the supercell

Half an hour timelapse. VID_20210620_154450.mp4

Forecast has been pretty much spot so far with overnight rain clearing to damp earlier this morning and now trying to brighten up. hopefully an improving picture as the afternoon goes on and the start of a gradual improvement over the coming days, mainly dry although certainly no heatwave but usable weather for my week off work.

Aye, the Atlantic HP really can't make up its mind, regarding its final destination (not to mentions shape & orientation) which may or may not allow some sort of troughing, in our tiny part of the world; but, as has been said above, no disaster:

Carbon copy of the weather here today, temperature a bit lower with a max of 14.2c. Actually felt quite chilly outside this evening, first time in quite a few weeks. Had a surprise visitor to the bird feeders in daylight this evening, must be famished daring to be out in full daylight (taken 21:30). As soon as the kids saw it out they went with half a ton of cat food pellets. The ravens and magpies will be delighted to eat the remains of them at 5am tomorrow (they're feeding youngsters just now that insist on sitting on the house roof from 4am and ceaselessly "CAW CAW" to get fed. Really could do with the Sparrowhawk to pay them a visit and get them to move on! Edit - maybe it's just perception, but there do seem to be more heatwaves around the world this year, Nevada now joining in with the fun. Makes you appreciate a bit the Scottish temperature climate.

My reading of the last third of June is "mainly dry but fairly cloudy", with Britain on the north-western flank of the Azores High. It does depend on the extent of the low pressure system moving in from the north-west around day 6 (25 June), which has been blown up over the British Isles on the ECMWF 12Z run, but it doesn't have much support from the ensembles. It looks like being near average to fairly cool until around 26-27 June, but with potential for warmer, humid air to head in from the west-north-west during the last few days of June. The NOAA 8-14 day outlook hints at a continuation of this pattern through week 2 with a strong Atlantic ridge: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Thus, the current outlook looks "usable" but nothing spectacular. The wet May that we've just had, and the recent rain, may prove useful, as there's no guarantee of much rain during the rest of June. I believe that there's a fair chance of the high pressure establishing over the UK towards the second week of July, promising something warmer/hotter and sunnier, but that's a long way off.

Well, that’s that plume done with now. However, it is only June, and there should be more opportunities yet this summer I’m confident of it. July and August have always been the stellar months. We will get our turn.

A rather 'interesting' pair of ensembles IMO: the control run & mean are both okay; though the operational is even cold outlier, in two places: It's up and down like Linda Lovelace's knickers!

Happy farmer day as we have steady drizzle all crops benefitting and cattle haapy to get a wash. Currently 15c

I can't resist moaning about the fact it is currently 9pm in Yakutsk way up in NE Russia and showing as 28c and sunny. Meanwhile in the middle of the day , at the height of summer, here in Dudley it is currently grey, windy and a tropical 12c. With drizzle due at 2pm.

It's been awful here, just about as worse as it gets for summer in this region. Cool, near constant rain/drizzle and almost zero sunlight for days. No doubt it'll probably be 37°C in a few weeks, as is often the case with our erratic weather of recent years.

Very little sun up here all week just the odd glimpse, chilly nights too. Damn crows are very noisy especially around 430am! Counted 45-50 of the blighters yesterday. Think I need to arm my drone.

Another one covered in crows, hell of a racket they make, I'm sick of them.

Finished somewhere around 9mm Drought over for now

Rain finally makes it June appearance here. Overnight as well, how considerate it's being.

The ECM 12z op eventually turns out pretty good for the majority with summery warmth and high pressure / ridging returning, especially further south!...so, we have some great signs from the Ukmo, Gem and now the ECM! ....I don’t think there would need to be much adjustment for a nationwide anticyclonic spell!!...you know nothing Jon snow!

I think plumes tend to come in batches. 13-17 were great years, 07-12 very poor, 05/06 were good, 02/03 not so good. I think were just in a rut at the moment. We might not get lucky this year, or even next year, but sooner or later it will pick up. Even the 90s were hit and miss. (I don't remember a decent storm from a plume in the glorious summer of 95 for example)

And the GFS 12Z looks okay by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the recent rain has had plenty of time to soak in . . . great for our newly-planted-out leeks!

I genuinely believe it could be capping issues and possible higher geopotential heights at 500hpa. Cooler air aloft back then due to a less warmed planet perhaps? Plus a reduction in local moisture output from industries/cooling towers etc. Just a theory of course. I wouldn’t mind seeing a detailed case study at some point though, as something over the years has definitely radically changed.

You need to take the mean as the guide.. longer range.. and especially when the outliers are within its upper adjust!.. my rekonining is a stark upsurge in all members beginning to breach the mesn/ control.. quite impressively quite soon.. the temperature plots also both continue- and gain in a possible plume like spell into months end.. keep watching

Small sample JS...i had to stop and have a cuppa half way through Yes it does look a bit more promising for July from the ensembs. Gfs 6z op also showing that hopefully July will be more summery again after this bleak spell as high finally moves over us.... Who?... You are now showing your age Ed There is a gentle drift upwards with those ensembs, hopefully a good sign....

I’m going to use that word again... ...ridgy! ..yes that’s how I would describe the GEFS 6z mean..yes there’s wax and wane / ebb and flow but I’m thinking the longer term outlook in particular could be quite summery!..with a ridgy mean you get perturbations like this!!! ...in the meantime, the week ahead is a bit mixed for sure, and starting cool but temperatures recovering into the high teens / low twenties c further south / southeast and it looks predominantly fine, away from the far nw / n which could be rainy midweek!...all in all, it’s not a bad outlook, just not as good as it’s been recently..but that could change further ahead..small sample below! !

More or less deja vu of yesterday. Cloudy/muggy start and now a few showers have brewed although nothing major

Had about 7-8mm fall looking at local gauges. It's something. Still raining but light now.

Just heard a very distant rumble in the Channel

Am I right in saying this is the direction this area seems to be moving up towards? Also some lightning starting to increase again

Explosion of elevated convection over the south east in the last 20 mins but looks very shallow at present

A decent day, felt very warm in the strong sunshine, max of about 20 degrees. The dry theme continues, nothing overly wet for the foreseeable, but perhaps alot of cloud rather than sunshine with winds switching more from the west or north west.

A cool and cloudy day here with just a few spits and spots in the fresh SE breeze. The max of 15.1C was the lowest since the 1st of June. Typical that today was the day friends invited us round for a bbq. My wife had her winter coat on and still got chilled.

It's been beautiful all day here, a bit of a stiff breeze at times but lovely. Went out a meal with my daughter, the first meal out in absolute months, The Bulls Head, just outside Prestbury. Noticed these Kelvin Helmholtz type clouds, if you zoom in you can see a definite wave pattern. What do you make of them?

Probably the last post from moi..got my trumpet ready! Anyhoo, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean looks ridgy for the most part, especially later..which would be good news for the majority who prefer summer to be summery..?

A level 3 from Estofex today for Switzerland/Southern Germany!! Some very potent storms already happening

Literally not a peek of sun in London since Wednesday this is very exceptional, even with June 2012 only managed 2 consecutive days with 0.0 hours.

France is starting early!! WebCam Montpellier - Ville de Montpellier WWW.MONTPELLIER.FR La Place de la Comédie à Montpellier à tout moment de la journée ou de la nuit ! Des webcams vous montrent la ville ainsi que l'activité en permanence sur les belles places...

Just heard a very distant rumble too

Looks very fast moving too. A small pocket has got going in W Norfolk too. Can hear the large raindrops pounding my integrated roof windows!

I'm in the hills of Staffordshire at moment and can safely there have been no rumbles of thunder.... However check this cam out in Cologne for some beautiful lightning Koln/Bonn Airport Live Webcam - Germany - World Cams WORLDCAMS.TV

Just out to sit in garden on this nice balmy evening and counted 14 swifts screeching high above the house a real midsummer sight and sound. Strawberries rapidly ripening but had first big one eaten last night by a badger (tracks on soil) so have spent this afternoon putting a fence up round them. Another mostly dry day apart from a couple of spits but a more substantial shower crossed the Black Isle in the late afternoon.

Thanks, after sleeping through the last couple of decent displays I'm over the moon with what I saw last night. I also encountered a huge badger, scared the lenticulars out of me.

Stunning capture Rush