Leaderboard

Storm approaching Reims! Wow.

Video done from my chase in Kent 2 nights ago

Anomalies arent too bad, they dont allow for that large scandinavian trough some gfs runs have in FI, theres no negative pressure anomaly, but slight heights. A pretty slack Westerly/North of west upper flow, weak troughing over biscay, .(and the UK ) Theres nothing seriously poor here (although short lived unsettled spells are possible) . Not entirely settled, but nothing as poor as currently we are getting. Could be warm, or thundery as some charts suggest if we do establish troughing over Biscay.

Omg I wanna be there, I wanna be there, I wanna be there!!!!!

There may be something wrong with me?..heck I know there’s something wrong with me.. I’m Autustic..Duh!...anyway, there’s at least some good signs from the GEFS 12z..if you look hard enough..you will always find something good!?...I appreciate that some don’t like summer / warmth..respect!..everyone has a valid opinion!..call me crazy though but I like summer to be summery! ...anyway, good luck to you all..I’m sure someone will end up happy!

Tornado damage to buildings, including a church, at Saint-Nicolas-de-Bourgueil in the Loire Valley in France this afternoon. Swathe of pretty strong storms including supercells moving NE from the west coast across France this afternoon

Broadly we have self-perpetuating low heights across the Arctic until further notice, which should tend to discourage troughs from parking up level with the UK for long. Further south is a different matter - worth keeping an eye out for lows stalling over mainland Europe, especially in the west (most of all if over sea, a little west of Iberia). With weak Nina-like forcing from the tropics in the midrange, the Azores High should become mighty strong for the final third of June. We then look to those low Arctic heights to ‘smoosh’ that ridge north-eastward, across the UK. That’d be a mainly fine, dry way to see out the lower AAM interlude prior to the next climb (however large or not that proves to be).

Someone RT this on Twitter and it showed up on my feed...Imagine witnessing this!

I’ve shown some great charts so far today from the GEFS 6z for example!!!..you can take them or leave them but you can’t say I’m not trying?. ..maybe you think I’m very trying?...wotev..but at least I’m trying.. ...just think about that?!

Probably the last post from moi..got my trumpet ready! Anyhoo, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean looks ridgy for the most part, especially later..which would be good news for the majority who prefer summer to be summery..?

What a beautiful evening its turned into and what a good month its been. Can't remember any rain 19 days in. Hope it continues.

OMG there’s some great signals for late June from the GEFS 6z!...maybe only I’m interested?...it sure seems like it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

Drove up to my vantage point in my pyjamas, managed to catch them before cloud completely obscured .

A reminder that we have a thread for European storm discussion/posts.

This monster ravaged W Germany!

I can’t disagree that the next few days are crap, but there does appear to be some kind of recovery beyond the summer solstice?...such a shame, the pinnacle of summer is junk..but there’s plenty of time for summery weather beyond that even though the days start getting shorter and sun starts getting lower..darn it..

There were a few @Sparkiee storm as it was a much talked about event:

Hey it’s not been a bad summer so far..just think back to May..utter cold crap fest!!!!!. there are peaks and troughs for sure.. ..it’s not always hot and sunny in a u k summer.. not like in the Mediterranean?..and even the med ain’t perfik!!!..I feel the mean is on a decent track for a recovery in surface conditions for the majority from around next midweek onwards? ..positive thinking gang!!!

I'm interested too @Jon Snow; I've been getting good vibes about this summer!

ECM clusters: A game of pin the tail on the donkey with regards that cut-off low next weekend. Looking through the clusters individually, it seems most people believe the UK is somewhere close to the donkey's bottom. However, being such a small feature, tantalisingly close to more settled weather wither from the west (cooler) or from the east/south (hotter). So the UK trough is definitely a forecast to fear, but not one to bet on yet. Further out, a little more mobility into the pattern, but maybe not enough in the mid-term to shift the trough too far from where it sets up shop. What we have at D8 might be what we keep out to D15. If someone forced me to make a forecast right now for the final third of June, I'd say 50% chance of trough close to UK dominating, 30% chance trough to SW and warm/hot/sunny/thundery, 20% chance trough to north or east and more average weather from the west.

Hi mate hope all is well with you. I have to agree with your summary here,and tbh it looks to me that signals seem to be weaker than normal this year,with even the Met highlighting low confidence from these signals in all there updates! A decent bet to me looks like a fair amount of settled conditions around at times with occasional blips of unsettled conditions,more towards the North of the UK! Some rain around this Weekend and into Monday but perhaps becoming more settled as the week goes on...after a cool start,becoming warmer later! Honest opinion is it does not look to bad! ECM mean flags this up well and does not really side with the op run this morning. Have a great Weekend all and big up Scotland...you boys have some true grit...

Very vibrant even down to 50N!

Collection of NLC pictures: https://twitter.com/i/events/1401170437141413895

At least Tamara will be happy?..that’s some consolation at least!

What a stonker of a GEFS temperature ensemble . . . in Lisbon!

A bit breezy out now and it’s having no problem blowing the dust about, the ground is so dry now. If this set up was in mid winter, we’d have been going ballistic watching enviously as the south got plastered in snow while we stayed dry but in summer, you can’t beat southerly tracking systems. as they love to say in the mod thread……….channel low anybody.

Agreed.

I get your point totally, we are all on here especially this thread for fun and banter. Every one is entitled to moan about what they want to. No need at all to upset folk what ever there preference.

Stuff the op,.. unless it shows a heatwave! .. focus more on the mean and perturbations! ..you know it makes sense..wow, now I sound like Del Boy!

And anywho, the weather will do what the weather will do . . . Come high water or High Noon!

I think the tide might turn today re the longer term prospects of dry and summery weather. If we sum up the dichotomy on offer from the models it is either a return to a high pressure summer synoptics in a weeks time or a UK trough. 12z take so far we have ICON and UKMO at T144: I know which one I’m backing….

Dont worry soon be winter endless mild warm days as a blob of orange snot anchors itself over the country while the whole of Europe freezes

As long as this dreadful cloudy skies dissipates, i don't mind if we get heat or not as the sun is warm enough now to feel good in the sun.

If we don't get any proper rain tonight or tomorrow it will be a good 3+weeks without. But not unusual. Reservoir levels look fine according to the United utilities website, slightly above normal for the time of year, no doubt the May monsoon helped that. So even if we get a bone dry rest of summer we're still good to go.

Mein Gott in Himmel, the GFS 06Z is a horror show! And it closes out with a real shocker!

And the ext anomalies pretty much go along with that Mushy

2013 Alberta Floods This time 8 years ago it started raining. Nothing unusual in June I thought. 48 hours later and I was in the thick of (at the time) the costliest natural disaster in Canada’s history. From 19-21 June half a years rain fell in just 36 hours. 9 inches (228mm) of rain fell in Canmore townsite. (Over a foot was estimated in the mountains). A local state of emergency was declared by June 21. Flooding was widespread from the run off from the mountains as new rivers raged down the mountains. Luckily the main river that runs through the town just held. At its highest it was inches away from breaching it’s banks. Had that gone then literally most of Canmore would have been devastated. I lived next to the river. In town thousands were evacuated and many homes were lost. Evacuation centres were set up at the high schools. Our house was flooded and we ended up spending 3 nights at my works office, where thankfully it was on higher ground. And I had the relative luxury of a sofa, TV, private toilet, fridge and comfy blow up bed. I was one of the lucky ones. Canmore is accessed via the only road in and out - the main highway. There are other back routes through the higher mountain passes. But by June 20 there were two landslides that cut Canmore off from the outside world. One to the east and another to west. All drinking water was unuseable as it became tainted by sewage. With no way in or out water supplies became scarce in town as people bought up all the bottled water. The Canadian forces were called in with supplies and to help in the rescue mission - which included getting the highway opened. Amazingly within 4 days they had built a temporary bridge, allowing emergency access in and out. Supplies were getting back to normal and work was underway to repair the highway and various locations around town that had been destroyed by the floods. Within a few days after it stopped raining flood waters receded. Within a week or so our water supply was back, within 10 days it’s was 36oC with blazing sunshine and Canada day celebrations went ahead, brining much needed normality to the town. Within a few months all roads had been repaired. It took much longer to repair houses and infrastructure in the heart of the floods. Other than suffering a few weeks of mild PTSD where I’d wake every night drenched in sweat dreaming the house was being washed away in the floods, I did OK. A lot of people did a lot worse and sadly lives were lost. I still get anxious when it rains. What I do remember most is the overwhelming sense of community, strangers helping strangers. Opening their doors, feeding them. Saving lives. Overall in southern Alberta over 100,000 people were displaced. Over 2000 Canadian forces were called in and over 32 towns were in a state of local emergency. It cost over $5 billion. Amazingly only a handful of people sadly lost their lives. And to top it off my mum flew into Calgary oblivious it was all happening until she landed. And was stranded there for 4 days until I could get through and pick her up. Talk about timing. Quite the experience for her. Here’s a few pics from the occasion. The main highway Me driving past just before the landslide (to the right of the first two pictures) The aftermath of the landslide (trucks and buildings in there) Some shots around Canmore My back yard before and after (some locals out in canoes checking on neighbours) My road My garage When the sun came out...and waters started receeding. Canada Day It was an unbelievable experience and one I’ll never forget.

850s of 8-12 can easily deliver. Depends what the pressure is like. High pressure centered over us would deliver high twenties after a few days

We need to see where that little cut off low ends up going first, as that could change everything. I wouldn’t take the ensembles too literally. This warm weather and plume wasn’t even picked up until a week out. We was supposed to get cool northerlies!

Nope even Sunday's deluge forecast a few days ago has now been tailed back to an overnight Saturday, early Sunday dampening of the ground. Not overly concerned about lack of rain, as soon as those winds switch back to westerly we will have no shortage of the stuff.

Dog needed to go out..

Going strong.

I have wave, lvl 1-3. Happy hunting folks

Dublin Airport right now 23:11pm

Wonderful photo posted by Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Norwich, of a shelf cloud on Wednesday: Shelf cloud approaching Dungeness in SE Kent on Wednesday evening. Shortly after this photo was taken very gusty outflow winds hit, and a few minutes after that torrential rain began... Source: Twitter @danholley_

And the warmth continues right into early July. I think we might even get off snot-free!

Well what a washout today. Had 45mm of rain here which is more than the average total for the month of June for Hertfordshire..and only 14 deg !! GFS 12z is showing some promise though .....more thundery set ups to clip Kent again.. Along with the UKMO they show that maybe summer (or at least warm air ) can make a return. The plants : well Day of the Triffids is coming....be warned ....

Just before the 12z deems this obsolete!!..just had a look at the GEFS 6z and found these stellar members..not a lot, as Paul Daniels used to say..bless him! ...anyway, I will continue to fly my positive flag for the rest of summer 2021..unless it becomes so ridiculously poor that this comment becomes stupid !

UKMO carries from this mornings run.. No sign of any green snot .. Lovely.