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Few images from around 1A.M yesterday morning from Minnis bay Kent looking towards Reculver Castle. I decided to stay put and see how things panned out as I've had a shot in mind for years but the storm decided otherwise so around 10:30PM I headed down to the coast in torrential rain and deep puddles, I was a bit restricted as I picked up a couple of friends, they'd never chased before, I rarely chase with others but it was great to get them their first Arcus and a decent lighting show, also managed to keep out of the rain mostly, also nice to give them a heads up on outflow and other things they wouldn't have experienced. It was great to brush the cobwebs off after no chasing for a couple of years apart from a small storm near Hastings last year.

UKMO carries from this mornings run.. No sign of any green snot .. Lovely.

And the warmth continues right into early July. I think we might even get off snot-free!

Reports of tornadoes touching down earlier this morning along the French/ Belgium border along with a Report of sisters.

And to follow on from above Friday 17 June and the 500 mb charts Been watching each day but not made any notes or copied any charts. Ec has its main are of ridging well west of a few days ago and the trough in the UK area is also, just a touch, west of where it was at that time. Noaa has kept the trough over/close by the uk throughout; less +ve heights/contour ridge now well ne of the uk, (it did have such a day or two ago), the Azores +ve anomaly and suggested ridge is now south of Greenland giving a not favourable upper air pattern for ‘summer’ weather,. That is ridge-trough ridge. Hard to say just what our surface weather will be. No really active Atlantic is looking the main feature. The air mass for the UK, for much of the time looks to be from the ocean rather than the land though; obviously, there will be exceptions on a day to day basis. Temperature wise then the usual split nw-se seems the most likely. Possibly a risk of an isolated day in the hot category for the se. The nw more changeable than the se; typical UK summer weather really perhaps sums up he 6-15 day outlook? ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

It looks to me as if, once the current malarkey is out of the way, the GFS 06Z outlook is nae too bad: GEFS temperature ensembles also look okay, though the control run has gone off on a magical mystery tour:

It looks like a member of the warnings team at the Met Office has just got in to work after oversleeping.

As mushy commented earlier, of course they are not infallible. But they do, with care, note that phrase, give the best outlook at 500 mb. We then have the extremely complex and difficult last bit of the atmosphere to try and predict, from 500 mb (18000 ft) to the surface. How to deal with ppn, mountains, oceans etc. Not easy even with the increasingly complex models but very very slowly accuracy is improving.

Wonderful photo posted by Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Norwich, of a shelf cloud on Wednesday: Shelf cloud approaching Dungeness in SE Kent on Wednesday evening. Shortly after this photo was taken very gusty outflow winds hit, and a few minutes after that torrential rain began... Source: Twitter @danholley_

Just before the 12z deems this obsolete!!..just had a look at the GEFS 6z and found these stellar members..not a lot, as Paul Daniels used to say..bless him! ...anyway, I will continue to fly my positive flag for the rest of summer 2021..unless it becomes so ridiculously poor that this comment becomes stupid !

Just to illustrate This chart is from the 10th, it covers the 6-10 day period of which today, the 18th is mid point. This chart clearly has the UK under low pressure , the current gfs rolling out now for midday today shows that the Anomaly chart is very close. Its not about "right" or "wrong" but abot degrees of accuracy and the anomaly charts are seldom far out from the solution.

I gotta ask, would it not be more responsible for the Met Office to replace the thunderstorm warnings with rainfall warnings? The rate this stuff is falling, and the time it’s taking too, must be causing more issues than the (low) possibility of a thunderstorm?

0z runs say the excellent start to summer continues by and large for the next 10 days. looks in the main,dry ,warm and settled. June now looking a beautiful summer month ,if the 00z data is on the right track.

Next weeks exciting 3pm temps for a late June afternoon. Woopy woo

Loving dodging the rain and enjoying this long dry summery spell. Can't scarce remember filthy wet weather. Only 3.8mm this month so far.

So here comes our soggy Friday..... Radar 07.40: Here's the rainfall accumulation forecasts (to midnight today) from a few high res models, showing well over 25mm (1 inch) of rain for many. NMM slightly at odds with other models, showing the eastern coastal fringes largely miss the heavy rainfall. Arpege: Euro4: NMM: I'm suspicious of the NMM 'drier east' forecast, particularly as Kent and east areas of Essex, Suffolk & Norfolk are the only parts of the Region with a storm risk this afternoon: Convective Weather risk assessment: Source: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-06-18

Good to see you Northwesterners getting a protracted dry pleasant spell and the SE getting dull and wet, albeit warm weather. Looking at the synoptics so far in June , Lancashire, Cheshire and Dales doing not bad. Makes a change. Hope is a long term thing ! C

"Lightening"? Good old BBC lol

Not looking quite so doom and gloom on UKMO this morning: Weak ridge over the UK by the end of the week. 850s actually look at at around 8c, so will probably be ok in places (22/23c) if there isn't any frontal stuff toppling in from the NW.

As usual, I’ve been watching the cams over in Europe, as that’s where our fun ended up. This plume just wasn’t meant to be! Bremerhaven, Kiel, maybe Hamburg the places to be looking soon I would say. There’s a supercell rolling on that has already produced a tornado in the Utrecht province. It managed to bring a pylon down

Just got home on a friday night, shattered after a long day....home to a bedroom at 13.5c...one very happy chappie!!! Good nights kip here i come!

Yep models were given Claritin first thing this morning.

I don't think it's entirely unheard of. I think April-early June is our driest period of the year on average for our region. May was clearly an enigma though that went against the grain.

Unexpectedly good 144 chart. Again relies on some precise trough splitting either side of the UK but would be most welcome after the deluge today and the coming days!

Close but no cigar… rain not making it over Pennines my brother in Denmark ?? just text to say it’s 32c toda just looked at current temps… it’s 32 in n Germany/Poland and 33c in Sweden

Just seen some big hail and rain on this cam, plus the level crossing appears to have failed. That’s probably down to a lightning strike.. chaos! Helmond near Eindhoven!

Yep, still a window of time to make the best of that SSE upper flow. Heartbreaking to see them monsters being wasted in the North Sea as usual. Insane hailcores on them too.

Rain creeping ever closer to eastern fringes of the region. Wonder if we'll see any fall here. Regardless it won't be heavy and thundery like it is in the south east.

Well it would seem that a lot of people read “very heavy rain, some thunderstorms” as “very heavy thunderstorms” lol You can’t say this wasn’t forecast - google weather said only rain for the last few days and they were spot on. They are also forecasting rain for the next few. Any thunderstorms will be a bonus

I am literally lost at this point, what is even going on?

Are we one of the high spots temp wise, 20.7 degrees... this never happens!

Portreath yesterday

Woke up to heavy rain, but thankfully that cleared before I went to walk dogs, fine misty rain instead. Could end up with some high rainfall totals later, which will inevitably lead to flooding around the fields here, which then runs down to the roads. Edit: Got all day thunderstorm symbols on the good ol beeb forecast, little optimistic, but might get a few rumbles in amongst the deluge of rain.

Next 7 days forecast It’s the mirror universe NW/SE split!

Don’t think I’m that qualified but I do like cooking and flavourful food dullish afternoon but sun out again as going down behind hills… dug up a couple of large overgrown fig trees and moved some large potted trees about on patio and grass cut looking lovely with all pot plants revived after jaunt to Scotland… has been very dry since May… hopefully Sunday will help refill the water butts and water the garden… first (of the year) big bonfire on Saturday with huge pile of brush/hedge/bush/tree clippings now piled up… will check for our resident hedgehogs before lighting still though…

No need to panic about charts 10 days hence, especially rainfall charts. For the same date from latest GFS: To me the medium term semi-reliable outlook isn't looking too bad at all: And the longer term outlook is, as always, FI, with currently no particularly strong signals for anything - we might see a summery spell, we might see a 'May '21 revisit', or we might just see standard UK summertime weather.

Bit ridiculous honestly, you can't issue a warning for rain after the rain has started.

I'd largely agree with you and yes, it is ridiculous in May in SE England to feel the need to put the heating on. However if conditions are uncomfortably hot for me, either to do outdoor work during the day or sleep at night, it is irrelevant how bad the weather has been before then, too hot is too hot. It is not a choice of one extreme or another, a happy medium of warm, but not 30C with energy sapping humidity is ideal. You can still enjoy the summer if it is a sunny 23C outside. Once it gets past 30C it's useless. I haven't had a problem sleeping so far this summer, but in Broadbridge Heath it will be a bit cooler at night than the concrete jungle of London and its commuter towns. Closing south/west facing curtains during the day, opening windows on opposite sides of the house upstairs, one window downstairs, and opening internal doors to allow airflow through the house from about 8pm helps enormously to keep the inside at a comfortable temperature.

Blitzortung for me. Shows rates, hits per 10km for example, colours to help identify which way it is heading etc. Free app, no ads, covers all of Europe.

No it didn't if you turn back the radar. It's been raining for 18 hours straight now ...!

Now that IS impressive!!

Another example of a NW-SE divide, this time we are best placed! Clear blue skies this morning, compare to the heavy rain in the SE! Makes a change!

Very wet start to the day , at least I can wear my new waterproof jacket I brought . Just checking the radar and eye eye what's this then .

Models all over the shop too for tomorrow night in terms of timing and areas affected. After Wednesday I'm finding it hard to know which of them to trust.

Yh this is a grim day. The heat and humidity is about 100 miles to our east now and we are on the cold side of the warm front (eg any Storms will be elevated) some day in store for NW Germany Holland and parts of Belgium though with a set up more akin to the Plains. Any storm there that rides the warm front could produce a strong Tornado today. Tomorrow night looking meh atm as well hoping that might change for the better though not holding out much hope

No, didn't expect anything and was surprised it wasn't shifted East on the day. However, it was only a yellow warning and the risk matrix had the likelihood at the bottom end of the scale, so not really an issue. Perhaps their data showed a chance, albeit small, of something sparking off further North/West and given that the low likelihood was well high highlighted, decided no need to adjust the warning area.

Yep spotted it, the one time I would prefer it not to hit, do it probably will. I'm going to be walking my son to school in an hour, not ideal, I don't go out in thunderstorms, and he's scared of them. When I'm out doors without shelter on top of a down, so am I.

Each to their own Crew but when the most likely weather over the other three seasons is rain, I’d prefer my summers to be sunny and dry rather than a warmer type of rain, albeit with a choice of noise and flashing clouds

A stunning, clear evening, albeit a bit windy around 5pm. Calm right now, and feeling a bit humid to me. I’ll have to get some snapshots of trip to the Llyn Peninsula when I go Saturday for a week. Sunday looks like it could be some quite intense bursts of rain and possibly thunderstorms across quite a bit of the UK. Saturday looks good at least!