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The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks absolutely superb later in the run, it seems as though the Azores high is falling in love with the u k?! ...not a bad op either!

Evening all Hope everyone is well. Barely looked at any model run for days - weather has been fantastic! Low 20’s and plenty of sunshine. Today…not so much warmth/sunshine. Latest EC46. (Just looking up to 28/06) Weekly mean 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 07/06 to 14/06 - temperatures well above average and drier than average. Proper Summer charts. 14/06 to 21/06 - Temperatures still above average for most! Average for parts of NW Scotland and parts of NE/E/SE England. Risk of something more unsettled as we go through this week. 21/06 to 28/06 - Mixed bag and cooler for many. (Temperatures still average for most though) To be honest I would bank that run - strong signal for a warm and mostly dry first half of June at the very least! All the best!

Looking further into the GEFS 6z crystal ball!!...the mean improves significantly again following a bit of a wobble, the Azores high flexes its muscles again and well into June the generally summery theme continues..possibly beyond mid month which is as far as we should realistically look?...in my opinion!...anyway, there’s some great output again today, for example, the ECM 0z ensemble mean / op turns into an anticyclonic epic... fingers crossed for much more of this weeks summery weather during the next two weeks +!!! ?

Hmm.... heres something of interest... I make it that the CET for Spring was 23.7c (7.2 , 6.4, 10.1) In the last 100 years i can only find 8 Springs that were colder... 2013, 1996, 1984, 1975, 1955, 1941, 1935, 1923. 7/8 of the following summers were in the Manchester Summer Index's top 25 .....

Towards the 192 hour mark you can see the improvement.

No commentary just the 500 mb anomaly charts. Both showing the far nw perhaps rather changeable but most of the UK under an upper ridge. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Dont have to wait Pete... they remain consistent in predicting high pressure over the UK. So this GFS run is highly unlikely to be anywhere near right.

That's not across the board though and is well outside the reliable time frame. Let's not forget for a time this time last week, the models showed a trough slap bang over the UK for last Sunday only a few days before. In the end it was a stunning day across the country and high pressure dominated.

JMA T264: Nice cut off low there might make mischief! ECM T240: Another variant! Let’s see what happens at T144 and go from there, but lots of interest now re heat and thunderstorm activity down the line…needs more runs to firm this up…

T168 and I’m not seeing anything to cause concerns: And UKMO at T144: Let the unreliable drift forward to the reliable. Not sure about any reduction in AAM putting spokes in the wheel any time soon, looks consistently high on most CFS runs: Hold the line, folks, summer is here!

Beautiful day, really strong sun, even now at 6:30. sat in the garden in t-shirt and shorts. Now to gloat in the summer moans thread, where it's been cool and wet down in the SE! ️

Yes rainfall stats show as the summer wears on, on average it's become wetter here. However much rain may come courtesy of thundery downpours rather than frontal features. Early summer tends to be more stable, less warm, less chance of thundery rain, and generally a quieter Atlantic with more chance of northerly or easterly airstreams which favours the west more. Late June generally sees a deterioration to wetter and less settled, not always though..

GFS 00Z is suggesting that some sort of 'cold' trough may (at least temporarily?) end up near Blighty. I hope it doesn't! Best wait for the anomalies, methinks?

Personally, it’s been a nightmare day, my dads fallen over twice as he’s so frail...but, the ECM 12z ensemble mean shows a very strong recovery later and by T+240 hours is MAGNIFICENT! ?

According to the GEFS 12z mean there’s plenty more summery weather to look forward to from the Azores high / ridge during the first half of June...and hopefully beyond!...I think we need a good June to make up for last month!!..and June is my favourite summer month!

ECM and JMA both finish with a decent pattern at T240, quite similar, maybe this is the form horse:

Definitely mid-late August can feel almost Autumnal in Scotland on a cool rainy weather day the best of summer already over. That said London’s microclimate in recent summer heatwaves can make it uncomfortably hot in the summer 36c in central London and 40c+ on the tube is not something I want to experience again. The SE has a lot more continental influenced climate both summer and winter - much more so than those that live down there would like to admit!

Me too JS (London & North West) and I could not agree more. I suggest this extends up the West coast to the north west of Scotland where May and early June can produce some lovely weather, certainly in comparison with later in the summer.

It might just be me but having lived in both the NW and London/ the SE I feel early summer tends to bring generally better summer weather than mid summer (school summer holidays onwards) up here in the NW. I have known countless late July and August days where it’s been 27c and sunny at London Euston and I get off the train in Crewe to 20c and muggy cloudy murk. Even hot summers such as 2018 were better early on up here - June 2018 was a cracker of a month for the NW from memory whereas the peak of the hot weather down south was more late July time I remember getting very sunburnt in 33c heat down in Windsor at the very end of July! Today is a case in point of this pattern it’s cool and rainy in London whereas it’s a decent early summers day up here. This summer pattern then tends to slip around mid July right in time for the school holidays! Maybe that’s why the Scots break up at the end of June!

A wet 'blip' today in the South East before summer weather returns (hopefully)

Nice sky yesterday evening

Well that is at day 12 so maybe it can be forgiven . Closer to the now, T144: The UKMO seems the most generous with the Azores ridge to the UK, but re the 500 hPa heights, the GEM extends them farthest northeast. The models in the later timeframes seem to want to retract the ridge back west but I’m not sure that stacks up. AAM forecast (by a model of course, CFS) to remain positive for the foreseeable. I think we will see the high pressure pushing more east on subsequent runs.

Yes...this path resulting in 15deg 850s moving in over the south on this run. Pretty hot I would think (30 +) with high humidity...potential thundery spell? JFF ..

Nice morning, feeling fresher than last few days. Currently around 16°C with 55% humidity. ? Rescued a wood pigeon this morning after my cat decided to catch it.

Contrast this morning to yesterday. Clear skies and down to 5.0C

ECMWF 12x looking high and mighty

ECM mean and spread T240: So there is a strong signal for a push from the Azores, but less margin of error on the northeastern extremity. I still think better charts could be coming soon, not that these aren’t good, given the May we have had, of course.

A nice comfortably warm day. If it stays like this all summer and in the low 20s I'd be chuffed but no doubt we'll get a roasting hot plume move up from Spain and Africa before August is out and the usual sensationalist headline of "heat bomb" . The only good thing is we usually get a lot of instability with that air mass so not without interest.

Deep blue skies, lenticularis and 26C . . . Bring it on!

Let us hope that you are 7/8 correct mushy and it includes this side of the Pennines also!

It's a stuck record, but at least it's a classic hit. Another gorgeous dry and sunny day, though Cumulus cloud has been bubbling up for the last hour or so making it more sunny intervals rather than the unbroken sun of the morning. Peak temperature of 18.8c, now dropped to 17.7c thanks to the cloud. More lovely Cirrus around, complete with Rook (they have had a good breeding season going by the racket coming from the local Rookery).

Would be nice to have this woudnt it

Looks good.....what we don't want is a 1978 situation where a lobe of high pressure cuts off and drifts north and east over the UK . After a lovely first few days to the month, the 13th June 1978 bought us this which gave the UK a daily mean CET of under 10C !! (since which the 18th in 1991 is the only June day outside its first ten days to register below 10C)

Really like this, I guess as long as that low that travels from west to east of Greenland stays hugging its coast, things will continue to look positive. I wouldn't be enormously surprised however if at least some of its energy gets thrown a lot closer to the UK in the process than shown above.....

17.2c to the 3rd 4.1c above the 61 to 90 average 3.6c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd Current low this month 17.2c on the 3rd

A nice morning with plenty of sun, and (I think) a tad cooler than previous mornings.

Not a normal headline that Huge otter spotted wandering through Fife town centre WWW.GOOGLE.COM Pictures of a large otter spotted in Rosyth in Fife have circulated on social media with animal welfare officers unable to find the creature.

Hopefully not. Once that happens, you tend to get stuck in the pattern. We need to get that HP further east.

Evening All... a very mixed outlook it has to be honest no Super high controlling the weather ...instead some Gentle Summer Weather...

Cooler and cloudier today but should be more sun tomorrow and warmer again. Nothing particularly chilly or unsettled on the horizon but I'm always wary when summer bursts out of the blocks quick because unless it's like 2003 or 2018 we often pay for it in July and August.

Became Ana

Combined Rankings for the CET and EWP contests RANK __avg _ CET _ EWP __Forecaster ________ avg C err (rank) __ avg mm error (rank) _ 01 ___ 02.0__ 01 __ 03 __ Reef (6) _____________ 0.70 (2) _______ 35.42 (1) _ 02 ___ 06.0__ 06 __ ---- ____ Quicksilver1989 (6) _0.75 (3t) _ 03 ___ 07.0__t13 __ 01 __ Feb1991Blizzard (6) _ 1.03 (18t) _____ 36.58 (4) _ 04 ___ 10.0__ 05 __ 15 __ noname_weather (6)__0.78 (6) _______ 45.38 (20) _ 05 ___ 12.5__ 15 __ 10 __ Roger J Smith (6) _____1.20 (29t) ______ 40.30 (8) _ 06 ___ 13.0 __t13 __ ---- _____ damianslaw (6) __ 0.90 (8t) _t07 ___ 13.5__ 22 __ 05 __ Don (6) ______________ 1.15 (26) ______ 38.18 (5) _t07 ___ 13.5__ 10 __ 17 __ Polar Gael (6) ________0.95 (10t) ______ 36.55 (3) _ 09 ___ 14.0__ 16 __ 12 __ davehsug (6) _________0.95 (10t) ______ 39.52 (8) _ 10 ___ 17.0__ 28 __ 06 __ Federico (6) _________ 1.03 (18t) _______ 40.32 (9) _ 11 ___ 19.0__ 19 __ ---- ____dancerwithwings (6)_1.07 (22) _ 12 ___ 19.5__t23__ 16 __ February1978 _______ 1.18 (27t) ______ 45.52 (t21) _ 13 ___ 20.0__ 20 __ ---- _____ Summer Sun (6) ___1.12 (24t) _ 14 ___ 20.5__ 30 __ 11 __ Relativistic (6) ________1.05 (20t) ______ 39.72 (8) _ 15 ___ 21.0__ 21 __ ---- ____ Mark Bayley (5) _____0.90 (8t) _ 16 ___ 21.5__ 18 __ 25 __ Leo97t (6) ___________ 1.12 (24t) ______54.72 (43) _t17 ___ 22.0__ 37 __ 07 __ Bobd24 (6) __________ 1.23 (33) ______43.12 (14) _t17 ___ 22.0__ 07 __ 37 __ BornFromTheVoid (6) __1.02 (17) _______47.85 (27) _t19 ___ 22.5__ 12 __ 33 __ MrMaunder (6) _______0.98 (15t) _____ 48.75 (30) _t19 ____22.5__ 27 __ 18 __ Mulzy (6) ____________ 1.05 (20t) ______45.02 (16) _ 21 ____23.0__ 11 __ 35 __ DR(S)NO (6) _________ 0.97 (13t) ______49.42 (31) _t22 ___ 24.0__ 17 __ 31 __ SteveB (6) ____________0.97 (13t) ______49.68 (32) _t22 ____24.0__ 39 __ 09 __ Godber 1 (6) ________ 1.28 (36t) ______42.25 (13) _ 24 ____24.5__t03 __ 46 __ Stargazer (6) ________ 0.80 (7) ________57.08 (49) _t25 ___ 25.0__t03 __ 47 __ weather-history (6) __ 0.77 (5) _______ 54.02 (40) _t25 ___ 25.0 __21A__ 29 __ coldest winter (3) ___ 0.67 (2A) ______ 20.67 (0 A) _t27 ___ 26.0__ 08 __ 44 __ Summer18 (6) ________0.95 (10t) _____ 51.08 (36) _t27 ___ 26.0__ 26 __ 26 __ EdStone (General Cluster) (6) _1.32 (38) ______46.25 (23) _t29 ___ 26.5__ 02 __ 51 __ timmytour (6) ________ 0.75 (3t) _______57.92 (50) _t29 ___ 26.5__ 51 __ 02 __ snowray (6) __________ 1.58 (49) _______36.18 (2) _ 31 ___ 28.0__ 35 __ 21 __ J10 (6) ________________ 1.20 (29t) _____ 47.50 (25) _t32 ___ 28.5__t23__ 34 __ Summer Blizzard (6) __ 1.08 (23) ______ 48.35 (29) _t32 ___ 28.5__ 09 __ 48 __ 2010 cold (4) __________ 0.64 (1) _______ 44.23 (15) _t34 ___ 29.0__ 50 __ 08 __ The PIT (6) ____________1.43 (42t) _____ 45.22 (18) _t34 ___ 29.0__ 36 __ 22 __ Frigid (5) ______________ 1.26 (34t) ____ 40.54 (10) _ 36 ___ 30.0__ 47 __ 13 __ Blast from the Past (6) _1.22 (32) _____ 45.25 (19) _ 37 ___ 31.0__ 31 __ ---- ____ Man Without Beard (6)_1.18 (27t) _ 38 ___ 32.0__ 60 __ 04 __ virtualsphere (6) _______2.27 (61) _____ 40.98 (11) _ 39 ___ 32.5__ 29 __ 36 __ stewfox (6) ____________ 1.37 (40) ______55.22 (45) _ 40 ___ 33.0__ 43 __ 23 __ Norrance (5) __________ 1.26 (34t) ______52.56 (39) _ 41 ___ 34.0__t23 __ 45 __ pegg24 (5) ____________0.98 (15t) _____ 50.40 (35) _ 42 ___ 34.5__ 49 __ 20 ___ Jeff C (6) _____________ 1.47 (47) ______ 45.08 (17) _ 43 ___ 35.0__ 38 __ 32 __ sundog (5) ____________ 1.40 (41) _______54.68 (42) _ 44 ___ 35.5__ 57 __ 14 __ Midlands Ice Age (6) __ 1.98 (58) _______41.38 (12) _ 45 ___ 36.0__ 32 __ 40 __ shillitocettwo (6) ______1.83 (53t) _______51.32 (37) _ 46 ___ 37.0__ 55 __ 19 __ seaside60 (6) _________ 1.68 (51) ________45.52 (t21) _ 47 ___ 37.5__ 33 __ 42 __ Weather26 (6) ________ 1.28 (36t) ______ 50.32 (34) _ 48 ___ 38.0__ 52 __ 24 __ Stationary Front (6) ___ 1.90 (55t) _______47.08 (26) _ 49 ___ 38.5__ 34 __ 43 __ I Rem Atl 252 (6) ______1.20 (29t) ________55.98 (46) _ 50 ___ 39.0__ 48 __ 30 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) _ 1.70 (52) _______ 54.48 (41) _t51 ___ 40.5__ 53 __ 28 __ jonboy (6) _____________ 1.65 (50) _______46.68 (24) _t51 ___ 40.5__ 40 __ 41 __ syed2878 (6) ___________1.43 (42t) ______52.38 (38) _t53 ___ 41.0 __ 41 __ ---- ____ Typhoon John (6) ____ 1.33 (39) _t53 ___ 41.0__ 41A__ ---- ___ Froze were the days (3)_0.90 (08A) _ 55 ___ 42.0__ 46 __ 38 __ DiagonalRedLine (6) ___ 1.50 (47) ______ 56.55 (47) _ 56 ___ 42.5__ 58 __ 27 __ emmett garland (6) ____ 1.93 (57) ______ 48.02 (28) _ 57 ___ 44.0 __ 44 __ ---- ________ Kentish Man (6) __ 1.53 (48) _ 58 ___ 45.0__ 45 __ ---- ____ Duncan McAlister (6)__1.83 (53t) _ 59 ___ 46.5__ 50A__ 43 __ moffat (3) ______________1.27 (37A) _____ 37.03 (9) _ 60 ___ 47.0__ 42 __ 52 __ daniel* (6) _____________1.43 (42t) ______ 56.85 (48) _ 61 ___ 47.5__ 56 __ 39 __ Walsall Wood Snow (6) _2.00 (59) _______49.70 (33) _ 62 ___ 50.0__ 31A _ 69 __ B87 (3) ________________ 1.03 (18A) ______77.70 (61C) _ 63 ___ 52.0__ 54 __ 50 __ Earthshine (5) __________ 1.46 (46) _______ 54.94 (44) _ 64 ___ 54.5__ 45A__ 64 __ CheesepuffScott (3) ____1.07 (22A) ______55.17 (45A) _ 65 ___ 55.5__ 52A__ 59 __ Joneseye (3) ____________1.07 (22A) ______34.53 (0 B) _ 66 ___ 57.0__ 57A__ 57 __ Dog Toffee (3) __________1.60 (53A) ______ 56.90 (49A) _t67 ___ 58.5__ 61 __ 56 __ Neil N (6) _______________ 2.12 (60) _______ 59.00 (54) _t67 ___ 58.5__ 62B__ 55 __ Sleety (3) _______________4.23 (62C) _____44.37 (16A) _t67 ___ 58.5__ 59 __ 58 __ Let It Snow! (4) __________1.90 (55t) _____ 61.70 (52) _ 70 ___ 59.0__ 62A__ 56 __ booferking (3) __________2.77 (62B) _____ 52.90 (40A) _t71 ___ 61.5__ 62A__61 __ DAVID SNOW (3) ________2.23 (62A) _____ 52.23 (38A) _t71 ___ 61.5__ 61A__ 62 __ moorlander (3) _________1.63 (54A) _____ 71.03 (61B) _ 73 ___ 64.5__ 45A__84 __ prolongedSnowLover (3) 1.07 (22A) _____70.70 (61A) _ 74 ___ 67.0__ 58A _ 76 __ Weather Enthusiast91 (2) __ 1.60 (51A) _____ 54.15 (41A) _ 75 ___ 68.5__ 62 __ 67 __ Lettucing Gutted (5,4) ___ 6.14 (62) _____ 203.53 (53) ========================================================== The rankings are cut off after 3 entries, except for 2 entries and an entry in May. Those with one or two entries in either or both contests can see their rankings in the excel files for the contests. CET-only entrants are shown at their CET ranks, names italic and indented. ========================================================== CET rankings are for the 62 who have entered 4-6 contests. Last month (April) there were 72 at 3-5, ten of those have dropped down into non-ranked territory. In this table, a forecaster with 2 or 3 entries is given an equivalent CET rank from total points, at the position that they would have with those points, and the rank has a letter to indicate both that fact and relative position if more than one occupy a space between official ranks. Therefore "31A" would mean enough points to be 31st, first of those, 31B would mean same but second of those. This is also applied to the rankings for average CET error. In the EWP contest, there is no difference in ranking methods so your rank is whatever you have attained, but for average error the same cutoff is used (four of six required) and the ranks of others with 2-3 forecasts are handled the same way as the CET equivalent rankings.

Rain looks much further west than predicted as well. Looks like a deeper area of low pressure but it seems to be moving quite quickly. I reckon much more of the country is going to get rain today than current forecasts are showing, as the rain is almost as far west as Swindon.

Actually an hour or so after this post it did brighten up. Fair play to you weather.

Interesting modelling tonight. GEM and Euro broadly support their differing 0z scenarios so are at least consistent (GEM builds the high sufficiently west to drop a Scandi Trough, Euro tries to send an upper low underneath to build to our north/East). The GFS however appears to be struggling as it produces it's third scenario in three runs. In this scenario the Atlantic is essentially set to half strength (still fairly dry and sunny in the south east) and goes semi-zonal (potentially west and dull in the north and west).

So true that, tend to get good in May and June and then it goes all goes pear-shaped in July and August. Even August 2018 was rather poor here with sunshine and temperatures both below average, but at least rainfall wasn’t too bad. We’ve had a very poor May though this year so hopefully we will get a good July, August and September.

Really hot this morning got up to 26c at midday but rapidly cooled as cloud moved in in the afternoon. Mediterranean blue sky with wispy high cloud for Scotland just amazing but doing manual jobs outside not pleasant. Have had about a months growth in the last week.Mother nature really correcting the inbalance of this spring.

240 on the EC looks awful here! to me that screams north sea filth for this area, hottest weather W of Pennines, for fun this far out though, but hoping it dosen't turn out like this, potentially brrrr

Greetings all from the top of the Mendips, was sunny for a bit today but clouded over again now. All the hawthorn around here is covered with so much blossom it looks like it snowed. Earlier in the year the blackthorn was just the same. If weather lore is anything to go by, we're in for a hell of a winter Is it the same where you all are?

Went to a new place yesterday called Hole Garden and the weather couldn't have been more perfect