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Well, the May GloSea5 is out, for Jun-Aug i.e summer forecast. Let’s start with 2m temperature: Firmly in the warmer tercile. For 500 hPa height, terciles and outer quintiles: Big signal for high heights there, so looking promising so far. Finally, precipitation: No signal at all! So great for those who want warmer weather, and could equally please or disappoint those who want hot and dry vs those who want hot and thundery. Most importantly, no signal for the continuation into summer of the high latitude blocking which has been the cause of the cool spring. As to be fair, the background signals and some of the longer range ensemble suites have been suggesting this tentatively anyway. Roll on summer….

Amazing sky across the western horizon from here. Massive convective development, dark and yet where I am, its sunny.

Just had a nice storm going through Wrexham, lots of loud thunder and plenty of fork lightning. Just in time for the school run, but got home before the rain and hail started.

Nice IC bolt I captured VID_20210511_220806.mp4

Fantastic storm tonight, managed to capture a bolt. Creswell in Derbyshire VID_20210511_215447007.mp4

Blue skies in Wrexham now and warming up again. Nice cell way out in the distance to my SW! Wonder where that is over?!

yep pretty good start to storm season , just taken a few snaps of storms as they move up the Derwent Valley North West over Peaks to Manchester way no messing with filters just straight pics with phone phone

This is how the skies were looking here a hour ago with a patch of mammatus dropping from the skies overhead, just the two rumbles of thunder from a strike a few miles away to the east at around 1pm'ish but it's otherwise been a quiet (but soggy) afternoon so far.

Absolutely belting little storm here, frequent flashes and loads of IC bolts, and a few extremely loud rumbles Great start to the season and it's still rumbling off to the North

A few rumbles of thunder here and there today echo'ing around the hills but not a 'direct hit' from any storm, netherless at least today ended with a photogenic note (although the perfect-picture shot of a lightning bolt going through a Rainbow still eludes me.)

Here’s some pictures of the storm near Peterborough that was visible from here. The pileus cloud on top looked insane. And here is a timelapse of it: 11.mp4

Plenty of storms around the Peak District. Having a great time. Lots of lightning and hail in them.

This is the one near Ashbourne in Derbyshire, almost 80 miles from where I'm sat

Home now and what an afternoon and evening. First encountered a storm near to Longnor which produced some nice lightning against the dark approaching sky. This was the first of many intense storms. Main thing in them was the hail which was pelting down and totally covered the roads in ice at times, making them treacherous. Especially with greatly reduced visibility, bright lightning and an accumulation of frozen hail on my windscreen. Hail was mainly pea sized but encountered some bigger stones, possibly marble sized, around the villages of Hassop and Calver. Some bright lightning, ICs and CGs with loud bangs of thunder. Then on the way home encountered storms near to Matlock. I was in the car but the lightning was very bright and the thunder so loud I could hear it whilst driving in the torrential rain. Finished up with watching a nice night time lightning display to the east, in the direction of Chesterfield.

All sorts of drama over Sheffield earlier.

Round 2 heading in

A soggy start to the day thanks to a period of rain at breakfast time but that cleared through by mid morning to leave another cracker of a day. Variable cloud but with plenty of long spells of sunshine. Fresh winds to start with, now light. Not quite as warm as yesterday with a high of 15.9c, but that is more than acceptable. Had a 3am invasion from one of the kids scared at a strange noise coming from under their window. Further investigation located the source of the noise as two amorous hedgehogs They do indeed make a heck of a racket! Summer really is close as I was surprised at how bright it was outside, though the photo here is lit by our outside light. Edit - should have left perusing of the weather forecast until later, what a naff few days lies ahead going by the Met Office.

Massive chunky cumulus to my north. It's producing radar echoes SW of Peterborough and I can see a bit of pileus on one of the updrafts as well.

This just about sums up my feelings on the current weather pattern..

Woohaaa!!!

Keeping an eye out although seems to have quietened down now. Pop up storms, defo not complaining though

Wow, huge CC lightning, massive crack of thunder. The Storm Season has begun

Lovely day to start my annual leave, 15.5c, strong unbroken sunshine and a drying wind. Despite this the ground is squelching as you walk such has been the monsoon like rainfall since the April drought. Heavy showers forecast to move up from the South tonight, much more ‘summer’ like. The grass is well behind where it normally is but recent nights keeping us in double digits or high single figures should cause a rapid change

Here is a few pics of the storm from earlier before i went to work then this was developing behind it,you can just see the edge of the storm to the left that went over,this is viewing NE i am just going through the video footage now and will upload in a short while.

What a difference in a few days. A perfect summer's day. Not too hot, not too cold with light winds and variable cloud. Bar a fleeting shower of rain at teatime, a dry day. I think a record temperature for the year so far for here with a max of 16.4c; currently 8.1c. Things seem to be greening up as you look at them, trees especially are suddenly bursting into life. Regarding Badgers, they are definitely on the increase round here with setts being created close to the nearest village to us. I'm told that is unheard off. That proximity is creating issues as apparently one of them chased a dog down one of the local farm tracks the other day when it made the mistake of sniffing their sett. The local hunting menagerie likes to shot anything feathered or furry so I suspect given the chance they will add them to the list - they may well indeed be part of the problem as there are kamikaze pheasants everywhere that just seem to deliberately walk in front of cars. Result, lots of road kill and free food for badgers.

Yes I have . Just heading home now from several hours of chasing. Plenty of footage to edit.

Starting to get v good again, If not better..

Just been for a little storm chase up to Bangor on Dee and back. Seen about 10 good bolts of lightning and some LOUD thunder. Not managed to catch any of camera, but liked these clouds! Thought a tornado was going to drop down at one point lol Can anyone tell me - are these the updrafts?

Thunder lightening and a rainbow at the end of it

Went out for lunch today as, although it had started off dull and wet, the weather was picking up by lunchtime and in fact got nicer as the day went on. Temperature maxed out at 16.0deg.C at 17:07 up from a minimum of 7.4deg.C at 06:36, humidity now 70%, there's no wind at all, pressure is 1007.8hPa steady, there was 7.6mm of rain overnight but none since early morning and the cloud cover has been slowly breaking up to 6/8 now.

Looking and sounding good here with lots of flashes..

Thunder lightening and heavy rain reached here now and it’s almost dark.

Three lightning strikes so far and thunderclaps... shows up at Real Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org WWW.LIGHTNINGMAPS.ORG See lightning strikes in real time across the planet. Free access to maps of former thunderstorms. By Blitzortung.org and contributors.

A couple of rumbles of thunder here

Looking dark to my south and it’s heading pretty much due north but nothing reached here yet.

Hi @Chris.R This is currently my view of what’s happening here in North East Wales. ??

Rotating storm in the SW

The hailstorm from yesterday has done a bit of damage to some hilly areas of spring barley with soil washed away from roots so maybe looking at 5 to 10% losses.Much drier and sunny this afternoon at 17c

UK doppler radar,

What's the betting it will just amount to a brief burst of heavy rain by the time it reaches our parts...but the conditions are favourable according to Net Weather's Tstorm forecast for it to keep most of it's volatility as it tracks north. Hope so. I've finished work now and got a ringside seat of comfortability.

Some good fork lightening spotted over the Albert dock. Thunder hail and rain too.

Pretty impressive thunderstorm with frequent lightning and deep rolling thunder as well as several spells of fairly large hail just went overhead here on the Wirral. Lots of surface water now. Assume it's headed for Liverpool.

WOO HOO!! This storm is right overhead with a hail core as well!!

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 11TH MAY 2021 Issued 2021-05-11 10:03:58 Valid: 11/05/2021 0600 - 12/05/2021 0600 Forecast Details Increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough will swing E/NE across western mainland Europe, the base of the upper trough moving in across the central Mediterranean later today, while the upper part of the trough is slow moving close to the west of Britain. A moist SSW backing Sly flow will cover the UK, which will be unstable to surface heating … given cold air aloft of upper trough overspreading from the west creating steep lapse rates. Showers will become increasingly widespread and heavier through the day, as surface heating in sunny spells increases lapse rates, with increasing instability yielding 300-500 j/kg CAPE inland across Wales, SW/central/ northern England this afternoon supporting thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will become more widespread late morning and into early afternoon across Wales, southern and central England before spreading into northern and eastern England. Then a shortwave trough / vortex, noted on WV imagery this morning moving NE in the SW approaches, will continue to track NE across SW England, Wales and on through the Midlands towards northern and parts of eastern England through the afternoon/early evening – which will serve to enhance ascent lift and bring a second wave of perhaps more organised clusters of heavy showers/storms tracking NE through the afternoon and into the evening – bringing a risk of localised flooding. Associated dry air intrusion with this trough moving NE also enhancing instability to bring hail locally and, also, increasing potential for strong winds aloft to lower to the surface in downdrafts in any storms – with isolated 40-50mph gusts possible locally. 30% probs of a thunderstorm for Wales, SW England, Mids, N + parts of E England – where instability and strongest convection is likely to be greatest. Issued by: Nick Finnis

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 May 2021 ISSUED 18:35 UTC Mon 10 May 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough will sharpen and become increasingly negatively-tilted as it lifts northwards across England and Wales on Tuesday. The net result is increasing PVA/divergence on the forward flank of this feature, aiding broad lift/ascent. Scattered showers will already be present across parts of SW England and Wales initially, and diurnal heating inland will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE with showers become more numerous with time through the day. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia, these migrating generally northwestwards into northern England. Upscale growth seems likely into an area of showery rain over northern England and southern Scotland by the evening hours, and this may result in a gradual decline in lightning activity as a result (aside from isolated pockets such as on the western flank into SW Scotland etc). Particular attention is given to Yorks/Lincs/Derbys/Notts/Leics which, combined with 30-40kts bulk shear, will likely see increasing low-level shear as surface winds back and strengthen through the afternoon. This could encourage updrafts to rotate, presenting the risk of an isolated tornado and/or wind gusts to 40-50mph. However, some concerns about cloud amounts/moist profiles exist. Further areas of showery rain associated with a wrap-around occlusion will also move into SW England, although this could tend to fragment and turn more convective through the afternoon/evening hours (especially south Wales / West Country). Within this area convergence-driven funnel clouds/weak tornado may be possible. Showery rain will also affect southern Ireland, but parts of Munster could see some cloud breaks and the chance for heavy showers / isolated lightning in the afternoon hours. Also monitoring a corridor from northern Leinster to western Ulster but forecast profiles are very dry with weak shear so it seems likely any convection may struggle to be sustained for any length of time. Deeper convection and isolated lightning strikes will also be possible in the afternoon/early evening over Caithness/Sutherland. Most activity will weaken or merge into areas of showery rain through the evening/night, but a few lightning strikes may be possible for a time over the north Midlands/southern Northern England, while elevated convection may feed into Aberdeenshire and environs with a risk of a few isolated lightning strikes. Met weather's outlook for today.

I think @Hairy Celt once said to me that if numbers were so high then why did a lot not starve over winter. Like you I said that my thoughts were that all the tame pheasants that were released with zero natural instincts for survival having never been taught by a pheasant hen mother and who roosted on the ground not in trees provided this vital food source for survival in the winter months. Back in the sixties when they were afforded protected status we had one sett neighbouring the farm which my father told me never to disclose to anyone and now we have ten setts within one mile. No one wants to wipe them out but we need to control numbers now.The forlorn tweeting of a pair of Oyster Catchers this evening reminds me that its three years since I saw a chick from any of them. The eggs are now eaten every year. On the proposed new A96 from Inverness to Hardmuir ( 18 miles) 220 badger setts would be destroyed.The nature advisors were asked what effect it would have on the population and their answer was negligable. There are just too many now.

Night lightning show tomorrow ... might be Storms develop across England and push north/ NNW with our chances from teatime onward

It’s fair to say it’s a trough dominated outlook ️ ? ⛈ but I’ve noticed, time and time again the longer term GEFS mean showing a gradual weakening of the trough(s)..eventually losing its identity and hints of rising pressure, there has even been a few plume like scenarios for late May...so, I would say, there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel and let’s face it, it’s still spring so we are not eating into the meteorological summer..at least not for another 3 weeks!!! ...

My area could be well placed today. I am going to be heading out chasing this afternoon. Hopefully can find my first storm of 2021

The outlook screams...As Elvis Presley sang we are caught in a trap...Yes the models still show a southern jet stream...Northern Blocking low level jet stream , never that warm ...But ...strong sunshine, instabilty and wind convergence Yes we are looking at some potent thunderstorms. ..!