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Broadsword calling Danny boy..come in coldies..are you receiving me..over?...whatever!. ...for sure there are still a few cold perturbations on the 6z ..anyhoo, as I said before, if it warms up..good.. if we see another cold shot..good..I’m open to all eventualities! ..,or am I?..go figure! ?

I just wanted to wait until the Gfs updated this evening so I wouldn't have to edit this to include it.. Even though there has been a fair amount of model output changes over the last 24-48 hours.. not much I think has changed with the outlook since.. high pressure will move into much of the country by wednesday next week bringing dry weather back to Scotland and northern Ireland, although now the possibility of a few showers developing for England and Wales on Tuesday before it becomes mostly dry for all here. That high pressure still more likely to be positioned just to our east and northeast later next week. Winds probably turn southeasterly for a time for many.. It will probably turn warmer for most, more particularly the west and south of England with temperatures likely reaching upto the high teens for some although perhaps cooler by the end of the weekend. Thursday Saturday The Gem has been showing a different placement of high pressure for friday-sunday next week but now it's moving back closer to the Gfs.. low pressure still could move close to the south or southwest too later next week with more model output showing the chance now, bringing the possibility of slow moving rain and showers into the south and southwest by the weekend, but for central, northern and eastern areas again it will probably remain dry. Here's the Icon and Ukmo with that very similar scenario with a low fairly close to the south with rain in the far southwest.. Icon.. Ukmo.. Though that rain may end up being kept away to the southwest.. keeping all areas mostly dry. The Ecmwf is showing a different placement of the high at the end of the week with cooler conditions and the high just to our north then northwest next weekend with it a little unsettled but does show the rain chance in the south and southwest later next week. A quick look at the following week and I think it's more likely that it turns unsettled for the southern part of the uk aswell as cooler with rain likely at times some possiblly slow moving, with higher pressure looking likely at the moment to be positioned just to our north with the influence extending over northern areas of the uk. This Gfs evening output shows this well. The exact synoptics may be different once we get to this week to some extent but i think this may be quite close to the actual outcome in this case. Scotland and northern Ireland may remain mostly dry and settled during the first half of that week, temperatures possiblly close to average in the north but in any wet weather further south then temperatures may be a few degrees below average but with any sunshine here in this pattern temperatures not too far from average.

No need for that at all. The OP was simply pointing out something interesting on a chart.

Well I’ve posted quite a few cold charts in recent times so I think it’s only fair I post some warmer ones?...the GEFS 12z indicates the new month MAY bring some hints of the summer to come with a big warm up across France and perhaps southern u k?

If only this were at Day 6, instead of 16! Still, it might be enough to spark some interest from the Daily Excess: Britain to swelter, as temperatures are set to rival those found on the surface of Venus!

And the Man From Del Monte says: 'Mmmm, not too sure about that':

Ok..cards on the table, longer term GEFS 0z mean May seem rather bland to some, this might astonish you..yes I’m a die-hard coldie in winter and most of spring but Lordy Lordy..when we see our first major warm up into the low / mid / upper 20’s Celsius..nobody will be happier than me!!!..fingers crossed for heatwaves, plumes..thunderstorms..hot sun..I’m ready!!!..when there is no further hope of a late sting from the Arctic!

Maybe some tentative signs that the warmth might be about to escape its shackles, but I'm not going to get excited just yet: I guess the 00Z GEFS temperature ensembles broadly agree with that guess? It's about time!

Another lovely day, with a max of 14.9c. As with previous days, a nagging moderate to gusty SE wind in the afternoon making things feel cooler. Sun definitely has some strength in it now as the family all have a touch of sunburn after been outside for most of the last few days. Bit more in the way of cloud today, a sign of the change coming in... Went over to Stonehaven for a visit, that curtailed quickly due to the lack of parking and crowds everywhere with little social distancing compliance. It's a bit worrying how many people seem to think that the vaccine is the panacea that ends the situation when the reality is a lot more complicated. Headed on down to Inverbervie instead - the beach and walks there are often overlooked, even though it's close to Stonehaven. Bar a few dog walkers it was pretty much empty, if a bit chilly thanks to the sea breeze.

I think that is a little unfair. This thread does tend to look to the future. I’ve mentioned the build up of heat that @Minus 10 is referring to a couple of times too, it could well become important down the line. We will see...meanwhile more anticyclonic weather with the high in the wrong place for any warmth in the rest of April.

I think if it were January, somehow it would be complete opposite a low where the high is

Just what would we give for a chart like this in January! Even Susan Powell looks exaporated...

Agreed, just had a look through the 12z ensembles and there are many, indeed most showing below average temperatures, even a few very unseasonably cold members....this is one coldie who would like to see some plume potential now!!!! ...that’s probably the end of my sacra membership now..lol..

GFS 12z ensembles now looking much cooler than previous runs, though the OP is an outlier. Seems like it can't make up its mind whether to go mild or cool. Note that this would most likely give us the coldest April since 1989.

Some hill snow too by the looks of it if that low where to happen as shown, the end of the Gfs update although likely to change ofcourse, does offer something warmer returning just as general cluster has noted.

Nice tea. Had to get takeaway as I'm rebuilding the shed. Lots of rot and rat gnawing found but it will be bionic when it's finished.

15.7c today’s max... felt warmer in sunshine before high cloud came in... still not chilly breeze of yesterday... apple/pear/plum trees and blackcurrent/raspberry bushes all in blossom smelling amazing... cherries a little behind this year... hopefully 17-18c tomorrow and wall to wall blue skies... Having Cajun and bourbon tomahawk steak with proper crispy roasties, mini Yorkies and large cut coleslaw

Tomorrow looking really nice. Possibly up to 17C, mostly sunny and no wind. Looking further ahead and we pick up an easterly influence from Wednesday lasting into the weekend but this shouldn't be cold. The continent starting to warm up now.

Hey guys..I officially don’t like the ECM 0z ensemble mean @T+240 hours!!!!...this coldie would rather see a plume / plum already god dammit!!!!!..or even a peach.. !

Well at Day 10, it's still a 'waiting game': once the deep cold dissipates, we'll be open to attack from both the SE and SW? But I do feel that, as far as any real heat is concerned, the wait may be longer than many of us might hope for?

Took the opportunity of the relaxation in restrictions to get out and about in the Sidlaws yesterday. Beautiful day and felt warm if you could get out of the chilly breeze. Leuchars figured for April so far show its been very dry (just 0.2mm of rainfall), cold (mean is -3.1c below average) and sunny (162 hours so far).

Willow warbler arrived today. Just about on time. Max 15.6 C warmest so far this year.

A quick look at the day 10 respective mean charts from the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z..they both share the feature of being benign under generally anticyclonic or at least ridge conditions!...so at the surface, by day would appear to be pleasant for much of the next 10 days plus?..anyway...I realise even posting at this particular moment in time could appear disrespectful to the Duke of Edinburgh’s Funeral..but that’s not the case, I’m a royalist and am watching it on tv with countless millions across the globe!..R.I.P

The warm air to the south is being constantly squeezed further south by the bullyboy hp to the north on the GFS 12z run. allowing a cold trough/lp to form over us.. We may get some (cold) rain out of this but it wont be very nice. Better make the most out of the next couple of days if this run is anything to go by. Today felt very nice in the sun, almost summer like . Maybe it will all change by the 18z.........or the 0z.

Bright rather than wall-to-wall sunshine here this afternoon and barometer starting to drop slowly. Forecast seems to be a continuation of the dry weather but colder from midweek.

Radar says green, but no rain to be seen... Narrowly missed out on air frost with a low of 0.2°C. Looks like a dull day, no wind.

Well the ECM0z is at odds with GFS0z ...no surprise there. Day 8 One staying cool/cold while the other warming up. ECM0Z mean day 8 and GEFS ens Current signal from ecm is to stay cool/cold and while gfs op is near top of pack lets hope it is nearer the mark regarding a warm up. Otherwise we will have to continue to rely on the daily increasing strength of the sun. Also a predominately dry prospect still with continual chance of frost. Not the best outlook for gardeners/growers...however we shall see......

Got me thinking when was the last time the region had a really wet April and May? Believe it or not, it was in 1993. We've had one of the two months as really wet and the other being wettish but both months being really wet, you have to go back to 1993.

Temperatures likely to be around the 10-14°C mark for the foreseeable which will feel very pleasant in any sunshine with the settled theme of weather continuing.☀ Ongoing frost risk under any clear skies.❄

Took dog to beach about an hour ago for a clean up after she wallowed in a muddy puddle.Temperature had risen to 16c this afternoon and with a southerly wind the wind was offshore so a beach walk was very pleasant. Not many folks about by midsummer I am sure it will be different. Bramble thought it was great.

Cold outside in pub garden even when sun highest in the sky, and zero cloud. Very unseasonal for last half of April. UKMO T144 hangs that low in the Atlantic, which might draw up some warmer air, but still settled and dry: GFS has the low too and by T168 it isn’t coming our way: With virtually no polar vortex in the usual place over Greenland all winter, the Atlantic doesn’t seem to have anything in it at all now - it has been summer synoptics, you could argue, for most of winter, for the UK, and it would be odd if that changed. So forget the lows, our weather seems determined right now by where the highs are. Moving on a bit, the final warming in the strat is coming, and it looks benign, the last thing we need is a final warming akin to a SSW right now! Strat vortex done and dusted by early May at the latest. By which time, AAM is forecast to fall: Which might lead to more unsettled regime but warmer regime in May, but what it might well prohibit is the high latitude blocking scenarios like heights over Greenland which those hoping for a warm up definitely don’t want. The current cold but fine spell is already impacting on SSTs, the cold doesn’t count, just the sun! I’m expecting a big warm up around 10th May

I don’t think there would be too many complaints if the Gfs 6z operational verified?..it’s showing temperatures eventually rising to very respectable levels for the time of year as well as high pressure domination with plenty of sunshine..I appreciate there are concerns with how dry this month is becoming across England in particular but there’s nothing we can do about that!...I’m just commenting on the run and it’s looking rather good for the most part!.. ️

And what, pray, is this? Could it be the longed-for warm-up? You can titter, if you want to. Just don't forget to ask her nicely!?

Oo er, missus:

Jon there's always a membership for you in SACRA

1983, 1996 and 2013 could be considered as having poor April/Mays but with a good summer, especially 1983 with a 19.5C July.

Yes back to back very wet April's and May's bit of an anomaly. 2012 nearly, but the last third of May was very dry warm and sunny, a brief respite in an otherwise exceptionally wet 4 month period.

Nice early round of golf earlier at Inchmarlo just outside Banchory. Chilly start but warmed up nicely. Still on winter greens and tees as apparently the course soil temp is still too low to promote much in the way of growth. Course looking bare still and distinct lack of greenery for the time of year.

Cloud fest today. Had some rain (not very much) not sure if it gonna brighten up or not probably had the heaviest rain we gonna get all week

Nowt like weeding with a flamethrower, CR. But, I doubt such an item would be too useful, in a polytunnel!

Certainly not from the overnight ECM with a strong signal for height rises to the NW,the GEFS has similar ideas but not such a strong signal.

absolutely, and this is where the anomalies come into play.... and this pattern is consistent, ill offer no commentary, ill let you people decide which run is closer to the anomalies.

Ah, that would explain why the highest daily max, shown on the BBC app, during the next 14-days, is only a measly 12C! And that reminds me: the two most horrendous summers -- temperature-wise -- I can recall, were 1972 and 1993; I don't want to see a repeat of either of them!

Cloudier day in prospect but yet again dry. Another week ahead with possibly no rain featured. April and May most likely months to bring prolonged dry weather here, most settled and therefore probably best time to visit for outdoor activities, not probably, definitely!

Incredible head of hot air bottled up over south eastern Europe and the mediterranean at the end of the ecm 12z run. All capped by hp further nw..

Could post-Day 10 be better? It couldn't get much worse: And let's hope the ensembles have it right: Still too soon for the Man From Del Monte, though?

Compared to populous places which should be measured against as this is where a lot of people are experiencing the weather, Manchester is undoubtedly wet. We’re talking about the U.K. here I don’t care about Saharan Africa has no relevance.

Hey folks, the GEM is back on meteociel! But it does end up as an absolute rotter! With heights where we don’t want them for summer.

Still looking on course to be a very dry April. Barley any rainfall showing up to the 27th for many parts of the UK.