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A sneaky mini-arctic shot at the end of the Ukmo 0h...you little tinker Ukmo! ...must admit I wasn’t expecting the arctic to visit our shores again anytime soon but it’s always welcome as far as I’m concerned..if we can’t have a plume, let’s have another arctic shot..even if it’s only a mini me version!!!!!

Evening gang,not been on here for a while cos there hasn't been much to discuss and we are sort of in a col or non descript time of the year when nothing much happens,...hay ho!!! unfortunately we are going to be on the wrong side of the hp cell as it positions unfavorably to our N/NW looking at the latest anomaly charts so a chilly N>NE/E flow looks the form horse... the EPS and cpc for day ten shows this hang in there you hot lovers,...it won't be long,...at least it is looking quite dry for the forseable,that reminds me,...i must water the garden tomorrow pin the tail on where the hp is going to sit in the next 7>10 days as i may as well flog a blind man look at these wind directions from De-built ha ha Bacon and egg butties in the morning with the one and only hp sauce and a touch of ground black pepper,...yum! yum! goodnight and take care all,...i am looking for warmer weather now C U l8ters.

Gee Whizz. You cannot be serious!

I must say the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne looks even more anticyclonic next week than this week with the high becoming centred over the u k so less chance of showers next week following a few splashes of rain early next week? ...anyway, I know the mean gives a broad brushstrokes overview of the situation and lacks the finer detail but on the face of it next week may be pretty decent overall?..thereafter, pressure starts to drain away but the pressure pattern remains very slack / slow moving and the Atlantic like a mill-pond! ️

ECM 0z T192 is a stonker!

This from the GEFS 12z P1 is quite the STONKER....if you’re a coldie! ️ ...are we out of the woods yet?.. ... ....could the ARCTIC have other ideas?..watch this space...................................................

With the provisional figure sitting at 5.6C then a modest downward correction of 0.2C at month's end would see us tie 1978 as the third-coldest first half since 1970. A larger downward correction would give us outright third, with zero chance of beating 1970 and 1986. The mean minimum CET is worth keeping an eye on. To the 16th the provisional figure is 1.2C, which becomes 1.0C with our modest correction. If the remaining 14 days averaged a little over 3.0C we'd still end up fifth-coldest on record; 4.0C lands us at around 10th and 5.0C around 20th. For context, the coldest is 1.4C from 1917. There's still a way to go yet, but it's nice to be able to talk about what might be a notably cold month.

I just thought I'd canvass Jose's thoughts on the latest GFS:

You know what, karl:

GFS 6z with a much more palatable outcome than the vile ECM:

Disagree about it being an outlier.... the Anomalies are supportative of high pressure building to our north and northwest as @Allseasons-si has illustrated above . The ECM imho is likely to be close to what we actually get. The outlook is bad for heat seekers, bad for those wanting rain... and the drought conditions are set to continue which will be damaging to agriculture (little grass growth, poor crop growth)

ECM looks even worse. Sick of this cold air. Hoping this is some kind of bad joke outlier

Not much to add to the excellent posts from you guys this evening. Not a great outlook but looks like after tonite and maybe tomorrow night the frosts will become less of a problem. Can tolerate the cool temps as the sun is getting stronger every day but please, no more frosts..... As the song says Jack!

That is a truly atrocious run from the ECM. It is an outlier but why are the op runs seemingly never at the better end of the pack? This is a slightly worrying trend for me. Like most people I'm in desperate need of some warmth now after such a depressing few months. Sick to the teeth of air frosts as well now- yet another one here this morning.

What a week of weather we've had up here! Saturday, heavy snow showers which thankfully did not last too long and any lying snow melted pretty quickly once the sun came out. Same again on Sunday, less snow, but sleet and graupel mixed in. From Monday we've had gin clear, blue, blue skies and low overnight temps. The lowest was -3.4c. Spent yesterday afternoon visiting a friend which we spent outdoors. Plenty of sunshine but strong blasts of wind. Was nice if you could find a sheltered spot to sit in. It was soooo cold, took me ages to thaw out once I got home. Strange how cold it was in comparison to where I am, and her house is less than a mile from mine, but elevated a good bit more. I could certainly feel the difference! Cloudy this morning but dry, so I think I may go and wrestle with some giant sheets of cardboard. Good for keeping the weeds at bay. If the wind gets up I'll be fighting a losing battle, so plan B is to chop some wood. A good way to keep warm!

Hi gang ,thought I'd pop in for a chat ,charts still looking cool ,especially early mornings .It was great to sit in the garden today in lovely sunshine ,not one contrail in sight, looking at todays charts theres not much rain to be had ,but still a possibility nxt week for isolated hvy showers .Iv cut down on my Sausage Baps ,trying to lose weight ,but hey gang todays baps are extra special ,wild boar sausage, with branston on one daddies on the other ,cheers STELLA'S all round .

The 30 year average high in Sheffield is 12.3C and the low 4.1C (and the low is ameliorated by our urban location) There’s absolutely nothing abnormal about the range of temperatures we’ve been getting in many locations this month. More frost than we’ve grown used to, but strong April sun soon takes edge off the chill and April frosts are not rare in UK/Ireland. Expectations of April weather are well off the mark tbh.

Thankfully the ECM mean doesn't look anything as bad as the OP run, which as @Mr Frost says is a whopping outlier. Let's hope it stays that way!

We usually agree but we will have to agree to disagree here- I enjoy your posts so please don't take this the wrong way. I think Mr Frost hit the nail on the head in his analysis of the posts about the anomalies- I can't see a consistent pattern in what you've been posting about them over the past couple of weeks- there do seem to have been contradictions and flip flopping from them.

I refuse to call that season a winter.

sorry, but i disagree with that too! I blog daily, the blogs are based on the anomalies first as the skeleton to build a forecast around by matching to the nearest op run. Those blogs have talked about nothing but below average/cold/arctic blasts as far as temperature goes. The only time that was different was at the end of March when that warm spell developed at short notice. Apart from that, and the suggested cold unsettled spell just after Easter when low pressure to our near North with cold air wrapped in its circulation was expected, they have been bang on or near enough. But i repeat....NO predictive model suite is 100% and no one has ever suggested the Anomalies are.. but please, anyone, if you can produce evidence of a more accurate predictive tool for the 6-14 day timeframe, please feel free to share! Im very happy to use them and are very happy with their general accuracy rate, i wouldnt blog to over 4k people a day without a high degree of accuracy. I would also suggest, listen the the voice of experience and knowledge, i did.

There’s been a gradual shift in ensemble guidance in last few days. Rather than a continued warming trend a cooling is now favoured later next week.

Latest projections The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 0.4% (2 days ago 2.4%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 99.6% (2 days ago 97.6%) The period of the 16th to the 21st is forecast to average 7.5C, which is 1.5C below the 91-20 average.

My god Feb.. That's almost a 'boom' chart. Insane for middle of April. MIA

ECM 0z ensemble mean Op pretty much out on its own. Lets hope it is wrong. ( i dont care for cold at the end of April )

So much for a warm up next week if this mornings UKMO OP run is to be believed.....another shot of cold air incoming.

Must have been a frost here last night too, the boxes of pansies I got at the garden centre yesterday are all frozen solid. Fabulous hot day and we got a lot of gardening done, was even pestered by midges Yet another sunny morning with clear blue skies - am enjoying this wee spell and if it gets hotter next week then that will suit me fine.

This is why I try and stay away from posting about the later stages of OP runs - back to Winter on tonight’s ECM! 23/04 24/04 25/04: Will that be correct though? Probably not! Met Office outlook does not agree - mentions likely turning warmer! The plot thickens. Bishopton was the warmest place in the UK today...that shows you just how poor the weather/temperatures are elsewhere at the moment! 15.1C Another air frost for @shuggee tonight.

Well the latest 18z gfs takes the glancing blow(cold air further east) at 144,...COME ON!!!

Interesting Daniel, BBC use ECM don't they? They're forecasting 15c in London Sunday also so I'm not sure now unless they're using a blend of other models too?

There were only 3 air frosts during the meteorological winter of 2013-14, this April has been wintrier than that winter even in terms of snowfalls.

Looking at the current models, it's a good job you said "it almost certainly won't" and not "it will never be" !

Erm...im not sure about the point you are trying to make here, those charts DID become very close to reality... No one has said they are always 100% correct, far from it, but when they are consistent then they are the most accurate for the timeframe they pertain to As those previous posts of mine confirm.

i will admit the frosts must be tough for gardeners but some of the posts on here have been so melodramatic. perhaps i’m spoilt by location BUT despite feeling cold there has been a great deal of sunshine & it’s been nice to record an anomalously cool month instead of mild. hope the trend continues this way. now if we get a may akin to 2007, 1984, 1983 etc. then maybe i’ll understand the complaints a bit more.

Hard to believe there's such a shift from last nights ECM 12z ens to this mornings 00z output. Let's see what the ensembles say....

Nice to see you have your positive head on again mate..perhaps better suited to the moans thread though! It's far to early to even be thinking about how poor things might become! This is becoming deja vu....You heat lovers are throwing in the towel before the season as even began...a bit like some of the coldies do in December!! Things are moving in the right direction if you ask me...and a successful Vaccine program trumps everything!! Plenty to look forward to if you ask me.

You keep going on about severe storms but there is no evidence for it in the model output. To get good thunderstorms at this time of the year you need really cold air aloft and a cyclonic flow or a plume event. The current charts show neither.

I hope my fellow coldies won’t mind me posting these charts from the GEFS 12z which show a warm up towards the end of April...just to show how unbiased I am...don’t laugh! ...ps..welcome back Matt

Similar weather here and also same as last few days. Temps just creeping up a notch day and night so missed an air frost with a min of 0.9C and max of 12.4C. Fine for t shirt and shorts when working in the garden and walking in the sun but needed a light jacket when out on the bike. Been a bit if work done in the fields since I last did that particular walk in the snow.

Hmm, I wonder if that explains this strange cloud formation that passed over us (heading north to south) at teatime. Looks awfully like a dissipating plane contrail.... Lovely clear evening so another frost is guaranteed. More the point though, summer has arrived as the first sighting of a solitary house martin this evening, a full two weeks earlier than last year. Mind you, feel sorry for it as there's hardly any insect activity so not much food available - doubt it wants the cursed bag of peanuts that we've got

Stunning picture from these parts yesterday. Back to cloud and further snow today. The never ending winter continues. Current temp in village -4c early afternoon max ! C

If only it was .......

Up to 14 c in late afternoon with blue skies and its still 10c so a frost does not look likely tonight.Spring barley coming up in nice rows in the evening sun. Great to feel a soft wind on your face as you open the door. I see Kinloss is still 12.8c so a southerly breeze descending off the Cairngorms may be the reason.

Night after night of air frost, and it goes on, another starry clear sky tonight and light winds, another air frost on the cards. Today has been lovely ideal conditions for doing anything outdoors. Clear skies in the main, wall to wall sunshine and light winds, but still a bit too chilly for my liking, temps just nudging up to 11 degrees. Still waiting to break into the barrier from winter to summer state.. can happen and often does in April, but May is the month that does it usually. This time last year we were seeing regular highs in the high teens, sometimes low 20's.. This looks like being a notably cold April, despite the predominant dry sunny outlook, at no stage in the forseeable do we draw in any warm uppers, and its slightly just a bit too early for homegrown heating from high pressure overhead given the orientation and lower upper air temps, give it a month and we'd be seeing temps climb much higher in the afternoon under such synoptics.

I went looking to see if the cold end to the Gfs 12z operational had any support from the ensembles purely out of curiosity...and I found this one!..to be fair it’s in the minority, there are some relatively much warmer members in that timeframe just before May...but the coldie in me...you know, well I’m sure the coldies know what I mean! ....but I must add that I’m also looking for plumes!.... ⛈ yes I’m conflicted!!...

EWP is only 4 mm and the next ten days will add almost nothing to that according to the GFS, the grid average is barely 2 mm and large parts of the south and east will see near zero amounts. The maps for days 11 to 15 are showing a bit of rain (or sleet) from a disturbance that is supposed to move southwest across the country near the end of the month. That looks like about 5-10 mm, so we have evidence for a grand total of 10-15 mm, quite a ways below the minimum forecast from Polar Gael of 36 mm. I could pretty much score the contest now if this model forecast is even 20 mm out. On the CET front, I see a few days later next week that look slightly warmer than average, but it's a brief interval and the most likely outcome for CET remains high 6 to around 7 range.

Good evening folks, Cold here and we have had the occasional light shower, but hardly enough to dampen the ground. The nagging north easterly wind makes it feel bitter out in the open. Will it ever warm up? Hopefully next week will be better. Our central heating has gone wrong and we have a heating engineer coming to sort it out next Thursday. (It has been a problem that previous engineers have been unable to resolve and going on for about 2 years, although until now it had been working, albeit unreliably.) My guess is after Thursday the weather will warm up. In the meantime we will be using a small fan heater to warm the living room and wrapping up well. Kind Regards Dave

sunny here but for all those who miss their hols I just had the below pic sent from family who live in Spain

Fair play to you guys above - only in Scotland with temperatures currently of 12/13C. (14/15C expected through the afternoon for some) Just went for a run in a light (running) jacket and I was still quite chilly - did see a few folk sunbathing on the beach. It has been cold for months of course so all the best to them - well deserved! Enjoying my last few days of working from home! Back in a stuffy office from Monday. Nice to see the weather will be rubbish - perfect timing. I like my mid/late Spring temperatures in the mid to high teens (even higher would be better) so was quite excited when viewing the ECM earlier. 24/04: 25/04: Fingers crossed for the above and then a warm/hot sunny May would be great as well! All the best to you all!

It's quite common in maritime climates such as the UK, where the air is often not dry enough higher up in the atmosphere to prevent cloud development from solar heating, hence why the cloud bubbles up through the morning from a clear start. The joys of being surrounded by the ocean! The surface high pressure caps the clouds from becoming tall cumulonimbus clouds, so you tend to see the sky full of fluffy cumulus clouds that don't usually produce rain. Just annoying infill that can spoil a good day. A good dry continental feed in the summer can eliminate much of this though. We've also had a little bit of instability (vorticity) in the upper atmosphere in recent days, which has meant there has been enough energy and instability to develop some scattered showers - despite high pressure at the surface. Also there have been a few showers along the south coast where sea breezes have developed and been forced against the main northerly flow. Where these collide the air is forced to rise, which can produce showers. Mostly light or not reaching the ground as the air below the clouds is very dry and low humidity. Lots going on as usual! Hope this helps answer some of your questions.