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There’s some nice charts on the Gfs 0z operational, especially next week following an unsettled blip when we see a surge of high pressure from the Azores ️ , also, daytime temps next week look higher generally than this week with mid / perhaps even upper teens Celsius at times, especially later next week,...and for those worrying about it becoming too dry?, this run has a nice surprise near the end!... ? so, something a bit more spring-like...BUT..there’s also quite a few cold nights with slight frosts so that’s one element of winter we can’t shake off just yet...anyhoo, I’ve talked mostly about next week..but the rest of this week looks decent, just a few showers dotted around but a good deal of fine weather and temperatures creeping up towards average, away from eastern counties bordering the North Sea...anyhoo I’ve waffled on for long enough..essentially it’s a predominantly settled outlook with high pressure in the ascendancy for the most part!

My last post was a bit rambling, I actually got bored with my own internal monologue would you believe! Anyhoo, the GEFS 0z mean is predominantly anticyclonic and the Atlantic looks very benign for most of the time...like a mill pond!

Oh yes, oh yes, OH YES!!! ECM mean looking brilliant @240. Just a shame that it's ten days away and will chop and change.

That is a pretty disappointing ECM overall- okay it looks mostly dry but not great for those of us wanting something substantially warmer. The green snot at 850 hPa basically never leaves our shores throughout the whole run- it seems that everything is scuppering something warmer at the moment. This is actually becoming a very monotonous month now with the possibility of snow and sleet disappearing which I know is of interest to some.

The desert like conditions showing no signs of abating for pretty much the whole country in the next 10 days as high pressure continues to dominate. We've had 1.9mm of rain here in April, and with the very dry and low humidity airmass dominating, the ground is rock hard and has quite wide cracks in places. The official weather station at Writtle (Essex) has recorded 0.2mm in April. Seems bonkers when a few weeks ago everywhere was sopping wet. Seems like April showers are a thing of the past these days, as it always seems to end up the driest month of the year!

GFS 06Zat T+192 is -- dare I say it -- nae bad:

ECM mean and spread T240: Almost as nailed as it can be...the only way it could have been nailed better is a 1030 contour on the mean. But we’ve got settled weather from now to at least the next 10 days, very little uncertainty for UK on the spread. I doubt the clusters will show any different. Dry, and a gradual warm up, that is the order of the days to come.

Just a reminder, if one were needed?..that winter could bite back in late April, on the cusp of May according to the GEFS 12z perturbation 4...and it it certainly did in late April 1981 when parts of the u k had over a foot deep of level snow with deep drifts...just saying!..we ain’t out of the woods yet! ️

A bit frosty this am but now all cleared. Heading to the beach later with kids for a bit of “character building” swimming !

Temps in the south east should reach between 15c and 19c most days next week which will feel nice enough in the sun but still chilly evenings & not quite the heat wave some media are touting !

This morning's GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles are nae that exciting, either:

Well chaps, the 06Z ensembles are better -- but I wouldn't bet my house on them!

Be careful what you wish for. This benign unspectacular weather suits me fine for now. It’s only mid April.

Although high pressure dominated ,not the most inspiring 12z gfs if you are looking for warmth. The greens of the 850s never really leave with a colder push again towards the FI latter stages Some occasional rain as well, particularly around 20th which would be welcome down here. In the sun as now it will feel quite pleasant with maybe mid to high teens in sheltered areas. The warm up act is not doing its job of warming us up for summer....yet......

Latest projections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is to 2.4% (2 days ago 1.6%) Above average (>9.5C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago 0.0%) Below average (<8.5C) is to 97.6% (2 days ago 98.4%) The period of the 14th to the 19th is forecast to average 7.0C, which is 1.7C below the 91-20 average.

Fine day again turnips finished in field so cows got their first day on frosted grass which they seemed to enjoy but with added silage plus lifted neeps to supplement the grass. Now lying next to the dyke in the sun. In contrast not much melting of snow on Ben More in Sutherland

Sixtieth air frost -0.5C. Foggy morning, sun trying to break through now at 3.8C. Had to do that thing where you're driving along and trying to remember where the fog light buttons are...

-2c start blue skies and sunny Green fields of grass two weeks ago all have purple tipping to all the leaves so not looking so green.

ECM mean at T240: And that is really all there is to say, the clusters have only one, from the outset to deep FI. Sometimes that can mean excessive uncertainty, but with this I think it means pretty much that this pattern will hold for a while. And a gradual warm up now.

Fifty ninth air frost at -3.6 last night. Decent day up to 9.6°C this afternoon then pouring with the rain just now. Dry earlier this evening and I spotted a kitten in a barrel.

Overnight low of -2.1c and just scraped a double digit max of 10.1c. Light winds, oodles of sunshine. All in all a very useable day ending with a lovely sunset.

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly settled outlook as these charts suggest, very broad brushstrokes with a mean but as the mean represents the average, on balance it does look like high pressure (s) will be the main feature during the next few weeks..so...variable cloud / sunshine / temperatures..BUT not much rain apart from occasionally across the far NW..for most it looks predominantly fine with just a few showers dotted around until the high becomes stronger, chilly and cloudier near / on the east coast but that should also change as the position / orientation of the anticyclone undergoes several changes..also worthy of note, the cold 850’s this week gradually get mixed out and next week onwards they look warmer, more in line with where they should be during mid / late April...doesn’t mean we are in for a warm spell but something more pleasant at least!

None of the seasonals are promoting a scenario where we have a prolonged spell of HP to our E- (late spring to early summer are showing as returning a HP anomaly that stretches from the UK into the Atlantic). This would suggest settled and benign conditions will be the order of the day as we move forward over the next few weeks and into May.

ECM 12z - life as an Atlantic low pressure system in the hard times of meridional flow..... Day 3 : low, eastern seaboard, 1000mb, - hey yeah, I’ve made it to the coast! Day 5 - this is easy man, past Newfoundland, 992mb, I’ll catch the jet for sure! Day 7 - this is the life, mid-Atlantic and deepening, 976mb! Day 8 - you know what, I fancy hangin’ out for a bit just off Greenland, 984mb Day 9 - nowhere to go so just filling in time, 1000mb Day 10 - Oh dear....hey, I’ll fall in with this new low, I’ve made it to the coast!

GFS keen to build another ridge to settle over the UK after the first, T192, T240: Maybe a result of the above average AAM state we’re in currently, CFS has it falling off after a fortnight or so, but that’s CFS for you: We will see...good to see some settled high pressure dominated weather get a stronghold on the weather in the UK now, even if at the moment it is a bit cold!

Stunning day today, well since 11am anyway. With virtually no wind it actually feels quite warm in the sun. We're not a needy bunch us Scots, 13c and sunshine will do fine

Well, after the frankly weedy clouds on offer a couple of days ago I'm please to see the clouds being generated today are of a far more beefy disposition. Still half of the sky is blue though so plenty of sunshine on offer. maximum temperature so far today was 13.8deg.C at 14:09 up from a minimum of 0.4deg.C at 02:38, humidity is 52%, wind is 0 to 2mph southwesterly, pressure is 1036.2hPa falling slowly, there's been no rain today and cloud cover is 4/8.

It snowed here at the weekend

Just comparing the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z mean @ T+240 hours...they both look pretty good don’t they?..I realise this is broad brushstrokes and no doubt when we see the finer detail there will be some ripples in the water but essentially the outlook is predominantly settled!

Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, but today i will indulge in 2 baps plus brown sauce , cheers gang ,STELLAS all round ..

A very Blocked pattern but in the wrong place for warmth....lots of dry weather to come in the next ten days ahead ,Early next week potential for some slow moving perhaps severe thunderstorms for England and Wales in picticular. ...looking forward to the potential. ..!

Entering second half of April, when the atlantic traditionally settles into its deep sleep state, stirring slightly through May and awakening in June... Models continue to show a blocked set up, something slightly more unsettled in the north west by the end of the week into next week, before high pressure comes back on the scene and once again moving into a position that probably fails to deliver anything appreciably warm.. Not very exciting!

Nowhere near as much of a cloud build today hence no showers. After a chilly start really has turned out a super day

Big surprise here with thick mist early on but no frost. Looks to be clearing now into another dry sunny day.

Note that with that SST image it's apparently impossible to have completely average, normal sea temperatures!

A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening.. even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country. high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east northeast. So it should stay dry for most especially at the moment for the east and north, this pattern would possibly allow warmer air to eventually move into parts of the country from the south or southeast.. low pressure could move close to or up in to most likely the south or southwest of England with rain and showers which would be slow moving with this more likely pattern, giving the chance of significant rain for some here but plenty of dry and sunny weather with occasional cloudier spells before then if it does happen. Was waiting on the Gem and Ecmwf midday update to appear on the site it has just updated and similar to their previous update on things for next week.. Gem.. Ecmwf..

No need to crack out the old Zak-O-Vision specs just yet, then!

This is turning out to be an extremely dry April in most places, and theres hardly any rain in the outlook either as high pressure is set to dominate our weather for the next two weeks. We are well on course for a record breaking (or near) dry April. At least things should become less cold, and even warm if we can just get that ridge to nudge over to our East.

72 hours of a difference here, Sunday 11th & Wednesday 14th

I suspect cold holds on for the time being then

I don't think @Zak M is complaining about the storms last year... I on the other hand, have definitely got something to complain about with more or less nothing all year. Here's another webcam picture of a shower passing Southampton just now. I only post them as my view at home isn't great and it the cams I get these pictures from are effectively an extra window to me with a much better view.

Thank the Lord the GEFS 12Z operational run is at the cold end of the pack:

This morning was mainly overcast, which developed into light rain at lunchtime and then returned quickly to overcast, then, by mid-afternoon the cloud started breaking up and some sun got through. It's now heading back to overcast. I feel we've been overly overcast today. Temperature reached a maximum of 10.9deg.C at 17:27 up from a minimum of 0.0deg.C at 06:03, humidity is 75%, wind is a very light southerly, pressure is 1034.0hPa steady, there's been 0.2mm of rain today and cloud cover is 7/8.

Showers didn't stay away infact really coming down at the moment

Minimum temps last night -1.1C / -6.0DP

Morning all, I don't often post on this thread but thought I'd add my thoughts: Assuming most here don't want continued cold, I'd say it's all eyes on the low beginning of next week. Firstly it'll stop a big build in the Atlantic. Then it'll encourage the high pressure behind it to topple. Once you have toppling high pressures with lows sent towards iceland, we can expect more seasonal and warmer weather!

Here's a short video of yesterdays storm: Some other images from during the day: And a cool timelapse of the storm decaying as it passed by: 24324.mp4