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Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, but today i will indulge in 2 baps plus brown sauce , cheers gang ,STELLAS all round ..

Just comparing the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z mean @ T+240 hours...they both look pretty good don’t they?..I realise this is broad brushstrokes and no doubt when we see the finer detail there will be some ripples in the water but essentially the outlook is predominantly settled!

This is turning out to be an extremely dry April in most places, and theres hardly any rain in the outlook either as high pressure is set to dominate our weather for the next two weeks. We are well on course for a record breaking (or near) dry April. At least things should become less cold, and even warm if we can just get that ridge to nudge over to our East.

Looks like most of the rain will miss the southeast on that run. While it is good that the hp signal will result in a warming eventually the absence of rain will become an increasing issue for gardeners/growers i think....

GFS 0Z has a love affair with UK high pressure from the 21st to the 29th April, with air temperatures gradually rising through to the end of the run.... If high pressure does become a fixture over the UK at the end of April it bodes well for a warm start to May.

Here is the full ECM 0Z run showing 500s and 850s. High pressure is also seen close by the UK for most of this run and the cold air being squeezed out..... Could this be the spring board to Summer 2021....

Just out checking cattle disturbance and its already -3c .I suppose the high has taken over with cold air in place without any mild air from the Atlantic blowing it away so the cold spell continues.

GFS outdoor pub run. It is consistent with ECM and its ensembles, and there has to be a transition to summer at some point and I think we are at it, by day 8 or so of course, T192: From then on is the key point, does this pattern gain traction or not, because that is the important thing for summer, if this holds for a while it could impact SSTs in the Atlantic and set up the summer, but it has a way to go with the SSTs, cold at the moment on run in to UK (from Atlantic). So longevity of this spell is important, I think, to build the scenario both atmosphere and SSTs to send the jet stream north in the summer. We will see...

Took Mrs Northernlights to Elgin at lunchtime for her jab today and even on the A96 there were patches of snow still lying next to shaded north facing woods. Roads had white dry salt like dust blowing off them reminicent of a day in late February and the countryside less green than it was two weeks ago. Couple of fields of winter rye which had been about 6 inches high looking very sorry for themselves after the frost. On a positive note our spring barley is just breaking the surface this afternoon.

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly settled outlook as these charts suggest, very broad brushstrokes with a mean but as the mean represents the average, on balance it does look like high pressure (s) will be the main feature during the next few weeks..so...variable cloud / sunshine / temperatures..BUT not much rain apart from occasionally across the far NW..for most it looks predominantly fine with just a few showers dotted around until the high becomes stronger, chilly and cloudier near / on the east coast but that should also change as the position / orientation of the anticyclone undergoes several changes..also worthy of note, the cold 850’s this week gradually get mixed out and next week onwards they look warmer, more in line with where they should be during mid / late April...doesn’t mean we are in for a warm spell but something more pleasant at least!

A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening.. even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country. high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east northeast. So it should stay dry for most especially at the moment for the east and north, this pattern would possibly allow warmer air to eventually move into parts of the country from the south or southeast.. low pressure could move close to or up in to most likely the south or southwest of England with rain and showers which would be slow moving with this more likely pattern, giving the chance of significant rain for some here but plenty of dry and sunny weather with occasional cloudier spells before then if it does happen. Was waiting on the Gem and Ecmwf midday update to appear on the site it has just updated and similar to their previous update on things for next week.. Gem.. Ecmwf..

Day started off with wall to wall blue skies but clouds coming over from the north once again. Currently 11.6c, up from an overnight low of -3.3c. I am so over this cold weather now and just want to get some heat although not much chance to get out in it as our office, along with the 22 other area offices in our organisation, are fully ensconced in IACS form filling for over 8000 farmers throughout Scotland. All would be well if the Rural Payments website speed would cope with the number of agents and farmers trying to access it at the same time. The only upside of cold, showery weather is that farmers are more likely to find time to speak to us as they’re not in amongst field work, and a surprising number of Deeside farmers are ahead of themselves and have got their sowing done which is obviously down to a much drier than normal spring so far.

Down to -4c again at 6.00am this morning but blue sky and sunshine compensation now.

I think a decent early summer is not out of the equation. There seems to be a fairly consistent signal for troughing around the UK in July though. Hoping this translates to some decent convection. GLOSEA going cool and unsettled later in summer CFS and its omnipresent July trough

Still felt like a day in late winter, but we did manage to raise the max temperature to 6.5c, so the warmest it has been for quite a few days. Must have been some heavy snow showers overnight as everything was white first thing, soon melting in the sun. Cloud bubbled up from mid-morning onwards leading to the lightest of hail showers in the late afternoon. Not a bad day overall, especially if you were in the sun.

As we are now on the cusp of mid spring (meteorologically) speaking, these charts from the GEFS 12z mean look jolly decent to me, Scandi high, Scandi / Azores high link up.....it could be worse?...although this weeks high isn’t quite strong enough to prevent a few showers here and there, it’s still decent as there should be some pleasant sunny spells although nights still look chilly but we should see temperatures for some of us gradually recovering to average during the second half of this week which would make for more pleasant surface conditions for many.

Blue skies all day here until a few clouds bubbled up in the late afternoon. First double figure max for some time at 10.5C ans with lighter winds felt much warmer than of late after a low this morning of -2.8C. Looking like another cold night to come. The fair weather clouds did allow for a decent sunset.

Overnight low of -2.1c and just scraped a double digit max of 10.1c. Light winds, oodles of sunshine. All in all a very useable day ending with a lovely sunset.

Early mornng sun picking out a tinge of green across the spring barley fields in spite of the frosty morning.

Lovely start again. The field at the back was white with frost but the sun has zapped it and temps are on the rise.

Lows here were -2.0 C / DP - 4.6C

ECM mean at T240: And that is really all there is to say, the clusters have only one, from the outset to deep FI. Sometimes that can mean excessive uncertainty, but with this I think it means pretty much that this pattern will hold for a while. And a gradual warm up now.

Thank the Lord the GEFS 12Z operational run is at the cold end of the pack:

perfect spring weather here wall to wall sunshine ..frosty mornings warm afternoons..doesn't get any better than this

No need to crack out the old Zak-O-Vision specs just yet, then!

Morning all, I don't often post on this thread but thought I'd add my thoughts: Assuming most here don't want continued cold, I'd say it's all eyes on the low beginning of next week. Firstly it'll stop a big build in the Atlantic. Then it'll encourage the high pressure behind it to topple. Once you have toppling high pressures with lows sent towards iceland, we can expect more seasonal and warmer weather!

Not for the faint-hearted The crappy end of farming. Depressing breakfast reading really, good job the sun's shining.

Yes .... it’s not completely dry. Here’s the GFS rainfall gif covering the 19th and 20th April..... Its a bit too far out to be accurate though, and I expect this will be different by next weekend.

Certainly a nippy one!

Max of 9 degrees, min of -3 degrees, returning a mean of 3 degrees! Very cold for April, and we've had a run of similar means for about 8 days now, sometimes lower.. colder than many a week in winter!

Here's a timelapse of a thunderstorm that I captured from last night, passing by near Bedford. 24324.mp4

Here's a short video of yesterdays storm: Some other images from during the day: And a cool timelapse of the storm decaying as it passed by: 24324.mp4

Fifty ninth air frost at -3.6 last night. Decent day up to 9.6°C this afternoon then pouring with the rain just now. Dry earlier this evening and I spotted a kitten in a barrel.

This morning was mainly overcast, which developed into light rain at lunchtime and then returned quickly to overcast, then, by mid-afternoon the cloud started breaking up and some sun got through. It's now heading back to overcast. I feel we've been overly overcast today. Temperature reached a maximum of 10.9deg.C at 17:27 up from a minimum of 0.0deg.C at 06:03, humidity is 75%, wind is a very light southerly, pressure is 1034.0hPa steady, there's been 0.2mm of rain today and cloud cover is 7/8.

That's very similar to the April 1986 CET (5.8C). It's a very tall order - we're currently running at 5.6C, 1.2C below the 1961-90 average for the first 12 days of April. If that anomaly was maintained in the second half of April we'd end up on 6.7C, which would make it easily the coldest April since 1989, but not up there with April 1986. Also, the model outputs are increasingly agreeing on a warm up around Sunday/Monday - OK, not as warm as many on here would like, but allowing for the GFS's typical underestimations of daytime maximum temperatures there's strong support for daytime highs creeping a little above the seasonal norm, peaking at 13-16C and possibly nudging 18C in the south-east. For comparison 18C is London's long-term average maximum for May, using the more recent averages (for 1961-1990 it was 17C).

Down to -5.2C

Decent run from ECM 12z. T120 has the high to our east with ridge from the Azores, but then corrects to a UK high by T240. Uppers not that bad, so chance to develop some home grown heat with this scenario, T240: Wonder how this evolution sits in the clusters. Edit - no help at all from the clusters, just one cluster from T96 onwards.

Well at last the gfs 12z gives us a little hope compared to the 6z Not getting carried away here but are we seeing a break in this cold patten? Ens will be of interest later...

Interesting Arctic blast at t276 on the 06 gfs

Such a shame for some of the ski resorts - decent Spring conditions once again. Spring 2020, Winter 2020/21 and now Spring 2021 have all delivered the goods - weather wise. Hopefully similar weather for Winter 2021/22 - we can all then enjoy it again! Glencoe currently: Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Mountains outlook: Home Page MWIS.ORG.UK Planning Outlook High pressure influences Britain through the next week to 10 days, maintaining quiet and fairly cool conditions, although a gradual rise of temperature is expected. Frost remains common, with a general rise of freezing level on the mountains into the afternoons. Existing lying snow on higher mountains will stay in place, thawing slightly during daytimes. Sun and variable cloud; most mountains often clear. Very little precipitation, apart from very isolated showers of snow or soft hail. Mostly light winds, but there may be some strengthening of wind around next weekend.

Total whiteout conditions here now.. this is crazy...snaw snaw snaw..❄❄❄

Still not really dropped the rain event next Monday, but better than yesterdays runs

The 1902 eruption of this volcano was a day or two before the much larger eruption of Mont Pelee on Martinique (May 8, 1902) which destroyed a city of 30,000 people; whatever impact there was on the weather regionally or globally would be more down to that larger eruption. The year 1904 was unusually cold in eastern North America. You would expect a dust veil in the Caribbean to move mostly to the west-northwest although right now this particular one has been drifting more to the east. The atmosphere between the surface and at least 300 mb usually has an easterly component in that region, above maybe 200 mb more westerly. Unless it's a huge eruption most of the ash cloud produced would probably flatten out around 400-600 mb levels. I've read a theory that the cause and effect of cold weather may be partly the reverse of the dust veil logic, that is to say, if the atmospheric pressure goes into a cycle which will load up cold in the mid-latitudes, it stresses the crust and volcanoes erupt more frequently or more impressively. Don't know if there's anything to that or not. One indicator is that when Krakatoa erupted in August 1883, it had already been anomalously cold in many parts of the northern hemisphere for about a year, for example March 1883 was a very cold month. That obviously cannot have been caused by the volcanic dust veil. In fact the average lag time from major eruptions to postulated effects is on the order of 1 to 4 years. The cold of 1885 to 1888 (more notable in North America) might have been more Krakatoa's work than cold in 1883 or even parts of 1884. The Tamboro eruption was in April 1815 and its effects began to show up (at least the postulated effects) around late 1815 and early 1816. Pinatubo is sometimes blamed for colder weather in 1992 (once again mostly in North America), but I'm not really convinced it had much to do with that, the dust veil was relatively minor and the cooling was quite strong (the summer of 1992 was probably the worst one in decades in eastern North America).

About 9.50am it looked like it was going to kick off but never got going

It was a nice day to be out and about in the Peaks despite the chill in the air and overcast skies earlier on this morning. Oddly enough its parts of the White Peak where most of the past few day's worth of snow has survived the thaw, and there's now barely anything up around Kinder or Bleaklow where it's been exposed to the sun despite the elevation.

Czechia today:

I definitely went too early with my tomatoes, even though it's been cold my tomatoes have been getting >8 hrs a day of sunshine in my mini greenhouse so I'm now having to move 18 x 20cm tomato plants in and out every night

We beat two April records this morning: lowest minimum on record (-3.4C previously -3.1C in 1990) and the first April with 6 air frosts (and more to come by the looks). Its not everyone's cup of tea admittedly, but its interesting to break a few cold records for a change.

We hunt, search and watch ALL WINTER for every miniscule synoptic to be in place and for them to all align in perfect precision..... and miss out nearly every time!! Fast forward to April, exactly 2 weeks after a very hot 20c+ day, with no searching or wanting, we wake-up to random, unexpected and heavy snowfall!! Absolutely crazy!! It's my youngest's 7th birthday today and he's not best pleased because he was looking forward to going to a new playground that'll now be wet but I've told him this might be the only year he ever gets to have a snowball fight on his birthday so we're trying to make the most of our changed plans!! For those still loving the snow in Spring then I hope you have a lovely time in it! I'm guessing it'll melt pretty quickly?! Now let's hope that in another 2wks we have a sudden flip around to 20c+ again and can enjoy the garden and getting my veg growing outside!!xx