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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/04/21 in all areas

  1. I’m surprised it’s so quiet in here?...the weather gods will soon be smiling down on the u k according to the GEFS 12z mean as temperatures gradually recover to seasonal values and high pressure builds in over the British isles before migrating to Scandinavia?..perhaps then followed by an Azores / Scandi high / ridge link-up or perhaps low pressure moving towards the southwest with warmer southeasterly winds being the result?..whatever happens I think it’s Bon voyage to the Arctic shots, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed them but if that’s the end of that, I hope we see a good warm up!..cheers..
    15 points
  2. Glad you are on the mend.More heavy hail and snow showers here this afternoon and currently snowing and 1c Going to be controversial again and suggest that we seem to have had more defined seasons since last summer and this spring in particular takes me back to my childhood in the sixties here where springs were always late and snow quite often seen in April and early May. I am putting it down to lack of aircraft pollution and also ground based vehicle pollution in the last year allowing our climate to reset itself a bit.We have also lost the brown ring of polluition at the edge of our atmosphere just liked happened after 9/11 allowing more heat to be radiated to space in the northern hemisphere winter perhaps. Its just my opinion and I maybe very wrong but its nice to see again. Fields white again after last shower Poor visibility as another shower piles in from the Firth.
    11 points
  3. Several showers of powdery snow this morning coming in off the Firth, Can just see in this photo up to the Wick area a lot of snow at sea level .
    10 points
  4. Unusual to be excited for snow in April but I’m liking the charts for a few timeframes tomorrow looks like a trough u can see the shape near enough chances for a covering I would say especially if it is a slow moving feature. Then a potential bigger snow producer as a developing low tracks NW-SE I’m calling it that the snow warnings will be coming quite soon for this ️
    10 points
  5. While the gfs0z wants to keep us in a cool ne, The ecm 0z is at least slightly less cool by 240. The now very welcome friend the azores hp still some way away...come on mate! You can do it...
    9 points
  6. Here's a satellite view from eumetsat of the cold front marked by the long stretch of cloud moving slowly south across England and Wales.. you can see areas of cloud to the southwest moving east northeast towards and across France in association with tomorrow's developing low pressure system.. Rain probably now moving into the southeast during the day tomorrow, so some of it persistent but mostly remaining south and southeast of London with the heaviest of this over northern France, possibly a mix of rain and snow over high ground at times. Just to the northwest of this likely largely cloudy with the chance of local patchy light rain possibly sleet. Alternatively though unlikely If the rain does stay away to the southeast then turning drier during tomorrow afternoon in the far southeast after an overcast and in some places possibly drizzly start. Here's the high resolution models for tomorrow.. Arome.. Arpege.. A slow moving line of showers may also develop tomorrow too and if this happens then probably placed northeast to southwest through the north and west Midlands, east Wales possibly into central parts of England too bringing showery precipitation some of it heavy with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly snow falling. Sunday rain, sleet and snow showers probably widespread over England and Wales.. Less for Scotland and northern Ireland.. Outlook for the first half of next week largely unchanged, so temperatures probably back towards average for central and southern areas on tuesday and wednesday.. winds probably turn southeasterly/ southerly on thursday, frosts may continue but it may become slightly warmer than average by thursday-saturday also it looks right now that mostly dry weather will continue for many southern and eastern parts of England.. Gfs 2m temperatures.. Thursday.. Friday.. As an example here's the Ecmwf.. a view of the area of high pressure moving east into and through southern,central parts of England and Wales through next week shown in place to the east of us towards the end of the next week.. Midday ecmwf update..
    9 points
  7. What the Hell is going on! I turn my back for a few hours to find everyone is joining the Happy Campers Summer camp! Come on coldies let's make some records fall,by recording Snow in April...May and finally June!! There's still.some cold air around....I just won't give in....its my life dream to see falling Snow in May know matter how brief! Join me coldies I'm still up for it... Have a great Weekend and I hope you pick the Aintree winner...ohh and God Bless you Prince Phillip..
    9 points
  8. Not sure why but the ECM just isn’t convinced on next week’s potential settled spell, GEM, UKMO and GFS have been zeroing in in it for a few days now, the former coming on board in the last two runs... here’s 144: Really similar with sthern scandi heights ridging over the U.K. nicely... The GEFS have been quite consistent on this signal The ECM, very out of sorts in the mid range over the last 6 or so months, pushes a trough through and thus looks really out of kilter with the rest of the guidance This trough, now trapped between heights E and W, hangs around like a sore thumb and would make for an unsettled and showery picture for the mid part of April. This discordance is manifest in the 6-10 heights forecast from NOAA, an unconvincing signal for higher heights to the East but you could argue we’re in more of a col there. Though the anomalies are skewed towards higher heights around the U.K. in April, so often an Easterly dominated month. You can’t ever discount the ECM and until it’s fully onboard I wouldn’t be shouting sunny and settled from the rooftops but, given the strong signals elsewhere, I’d punt that it’ll cave by this time tomorrow. Either way, it looks milder than of late. Can’t see too many folk complaining about that!
    9 points
  9. Similar story here! Had about three snow flurries this week. Showers fade away to nothing by the time they reach here - lovely cloudscapes though earlier. Great stuff for parts of the NW/N/NE this week! I am done with the cold now...ready for some warmth/heat/thunderstorms - roll on Summer! We are very slowly moving in the right direction. UKMO 15/04 (11/12C here with sunshine on that chart - that is how low my bar is currently after the recent cold weather) Met Office outlook for later in the month: Not great but could be worse!
    9 points
  10. Slightly more impressive from the window than the radar!!
    9 points
  11. Yes Karl, we were speculating about this last night, the move of the heights to Scandi from Greenland allows the Azores to link up, and the signal is still there today, GFS 12z T192: Looks promising, a warm up on the way!
    8 points
  12. Woke up to a dusting of snow from overnight, but only evident in the shade. Rest of the morning was bright and sunny, but cold with a stiff breeze at times (but nothing compared to yesterday). Got up and out and took the dog for a very pleasant walk around Loch Kinnord, taking advantage of the removal of the "stay at home" message, in sun and just the occasional flurry of light snow. Sat here now though and there's been a heavy shower of snow going for about the last 10mins, but starting to ease and brighten so probably short-lived. It's certainly not been a winter to forget, and I'm doing my best to ignore the large heating bill deficit that has built up over the last few months (not helped by being at home for much of that time).
    8 points
  13. Leg is pretty well ok but the ankle's playing silly buggers. (And thanks for asking! ) Another snow shower on now. And some noisy hail mixed in briefly, now back to fluffy stuff, back to hail, etc... I have to say I don't remember us getting repeated snowy days like this so late in spring for many many years. How come the arctic is letting go of such a big chunk of really cold air just now, has something given it a kick up the eighties over the other side?
    8 points
  14. ECM T192 charts to compare with my post above: Paints same kind of picture, and if this is what we’re left with after the cold snap, it bodes well for building for summer in my view. GFS 12z jet stream plot T192 also: There is nothing, absolutely nothing, coming off the Atlantic here, and there is an opportunity for the jet to set a northerly track here, it needs to be taken! It looks like meteociel have reverted to their previous jet stream plots, the ones including the lower speed winds in purple were really misleading.
    7 points
  15. Just back from a short cycle run. Felt warm in the sun but next moment going through a short sharp graupel shower. No air frost here last night with a min of 1C. Max of 7C today which felt nice out of the breeze.
    7 points
  16. Another stunning morning at -2.8 and spectacular shower clouds around.
    7 points
  17. No snow in this cold spell down south, might as well get some sun and warmth now.
    7 points
  18. Just had a wee shower pass over...not hail or snow ( apparently its called Graupel ) the temp dropped very quickly it was sitting around 8deg/C then 5.8deg/C during the shower, the cloud temp measured -8.6deg/C so there is plenty cold there. I couldn't grab a picture it melted so fast...next time maybe..!!!
    6 points
  19. More of a chance of sleet/snow/hail showers tomorrow evening in the central belt as the wind swings more NE
    6 points
  20. The anomalies do seem to be leaning away from any repeat, after this weekend, of any repeat reload of a cold northerly, more a rather slack flow off the Atlantic.
    6 points
  21. This may not be the greatest chart in the world if you want it to be warm, but it's a very good chart compared to what we've seen over the last 5 days! I think most of the people who want the cold to disappear would have bitten your hand off if offered a chart like this a couple of days back when things were looking very bleak.
    6 points
  22. There's a few small flakes blowing around but not much yet. The radar shows a dark red blob incoming but we know how this will end. Tears. 10 mins later.... well Shirley, it seems to be snowing a bit more now. It's bloody cold out, I know that from going to inspect my optimistic lilies...
    6 points
  23. Surprised to wake to another dusting. Thats 4 out of 5 this week. I must say even I'm looking forward to a change to warmer weather and lower heating bills..
    6 points
  24. Back to normal here, sunny with a slight teeny frost on the car. We need to get a weather station, lost without the temps.
    6 points
  25. Pub run’s not looking too bad for the pub run.......... ........at least later on in the day. Good vest and a thick pair of socks might come in handy though.
    6 points
  26. Looking like we'll finally see a recovery as we head into mid April with temperatures back into double figures widely. Still looking be on the showery side tho but there should be plenty of dry weather too!
    5 points
  27. Yes in the medium term it could go anywhere from here, really. There’s nothing really driving it. But whatever does happen could have implications for summer by driving SSTs one way or another. it’s difficult to predict at the moment but it is also important down the line. Interesting.
    5 points
  28. Good shout with tomorrow night mate! 19:00 21:00 22:00 Risk of a couple hours snowfall for you and many others! (light to moderate) Enjoy!
    5 points
  29. We seem to be in an abnormal state at present, with no fuel in the jetstream leaving us exposed to more northerly, easterly incursions, or generally slack airflows with pressure not knowing where it wants to set up shop. I wouldn't be too sure about how things may pan out, expect lots of varying output from the models in the days ahead, small short term developments likely to spring up in short timeframes making for a forecasters headache. Scanning through the outputs, I'm expecting higher pressure to have a upper hand but perhaps not strong enough to prevent weak frontal systems getting in on the act, an interplay beyween high pressure and shallow trough action. All quite normal for this time of year, the most tricky time for weather forecasting.
    5 points
  30. Light snow falling here for 2mins from the smallest of snow showers...
    5 points
  31. A nice (albeit chilly)! Day clear start but clouded in a bit still nice though
    5 points
  32. Back to bright sunshine, occasional puffy clouds and a light breeze. Spring has been resprung. Maximum temperature so far was 7.0deg.C at 11:51 up from a minimum of -0.3deg.C at 06:34, humidity is 58%, wind is 1 to 5mph west-northwesterly, pressure is 1015.0hPa steady, there's been no rain today, cloud cover is 1/8 and the dew point is at -2deg.C.
    5 points
  33. Yes another dusting here at 0c. Some fairly impressive snow showers across the Firth this morning . Looks as though we may see a few more snow showers today around midday as the sun reaches its maximum .
    5 points
  34. Cheers @Mr Frost for the ECM seasonals, similar to what we’re expecting from the long rangers last month. As you say nothing nasty lurking, and plenty of potential for warm summer weather, maybe some storms in July!
    4 points
  35. The amount of clear skies this last year has been very notable, especially last Spring. Lack of air pollution a key factor I imagaine. Tonight is superb - clear skies beautiful!
    4 points
  36. Dollar Law had a dusting this morning, but nothing below 700m. -0.5C at my altitude earlier, fifty fifth air frost. Winter hanging on!
    4 points
  37. Yes JMA interesting at T264, thought this didn’t come out til midnight, but hey, signals of Azores scandi link up: ECM heading the same way at T240: Pattern change incoming, I think so! This is what we want to see to set up a good pattern for summer - we don’t have one now, but with charts like these, it could quickly change in good time...we will see...
    4 points
  38. ECM T240: I’ll take that! With the Azores getting involved: Need to watch this if it turns up on other runs, Azores ridge with little from the atlantic to override it could start to show good portends for late spring and summer.
    4 points
  39. There's been some impressively heavy snow showers since mid afternoon, and despite being over quickly they have turned the ground white. Areas in the sun have quickly cleared but in the shade the snow has been hanging on. In most years, mid winter, it would have been a notable few days. After this winter, and into April when we'd rather it was warming up, it's been more of an irritation.
    3 points
  40. Whilst digging a shrub out this morning I came across this, 3' in to the stones & soil, there it was still hiding..fortunately I didn't harm it in anyway, I picked it up and moved it on after having a chat and passing the time of day!... It was a fair size about 10inches (25cms in new money) long, and I managed to pick it up and then move it on to place I wasn't planning to dig. Love these little surprises, as these are so rare, and yet every year we do manage to see at least one... Shows how stony and sandy our "soil" is here!
    3 points
  41. For Manchester maybe, protected by Pennines, but here that looks grey with sea mist, winds look E'ly
    3 points
  42. Spring made a brief return today, not that it felt like the max of 10.7c thanks to the persistent strong to gale force wind. Sunshine off and on all day, bar the couple of hours of cloudy weather in the late afternoon when the cold front blew through (accompanied by about 10 mins of heavy rain). Never cease to be impressed at how the temperatures plummet after they go through - here the temperature dropped by 5c in less than 30 minutes. Currently 3.1c so it's not as potent (so far) as earlier this week. Northerly sourced air compensates for its frigidity by usually providing wonderful visibility, and this evening was no exception.
    3 points
  43. Yes in line with the other models this evening the GFS 12 ens show a slow and 'steady as she goes' warming after the cold weekend. In line with an easterly based regime which will bring in slowly less cold air. The pressure ens shows a rise after the weekend then falling back somewhat as HP transfer further E and N, although the control seems to have gone off on one towards the end...
    3 points
  44. I’m just loving this front, as drawn first on the fax from yesterday for midnight tonight spanning about 65 degrees of longitude west to east, as an apron hanging from the 60 degrees North line of latitude, serving as a warm front at its western end between Canada and Greenland and a cold front for the rest of the Atlantic. Then, from the midnight fax for noon tomorrow, despite the mid-Atlantic high asserting itself and snapping it in two, it has the last laugh becoming a 100% cold front and spreading out as it sinks south, still pretty much 60 degrees of longitude west to east, about 3000 miles, from above the mid-Atlantic ridge to Finland, fins to Finns, a single feature traversing a sixth of the northern hemisphere, and bringing a modest but widely felt 4 degree drop in temperature according to EURO4 and some very cold air following in its wake into the north of Scotland.
    3 points
  45. Went out to a new area today called Reinden woods and it was actually quite nice
    3 points
  46. Looking likely will see another northerly plunge over this weekend bringing cold temperatures, frosty nights and the risk of more snow for some.❄
    2 points
  47. Hi Neil Harris, hard to be sure at the moment considering the big swing in changes that can occur from the models at that time period. But I think there are current signs for things to start warming up over the next 2 weeks. A chance for the weather to become less chillier anyway. Something that the ensembles and, in some ways, the anomaly charts point to. Some warmer, sunnier, days getting into the mix, such as in late March, would personally be grand over the next week or 2, and certainly beyond. Edit: Sorry, quoted the wrong person. Meant for Neil Harris
    2 points
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