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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/03/21 in all areas

  1. We are looking at a dry, rather cool, weekend adter widespread morning frosts, with variable cloud. The exception being the far north west where there will some rain by Sunday as the high cell slips south By Monday the Atlantic fronts are slowly making inroads in the west but it is over the next couple of days that some rapid changes occur with frontal waves undergoing rapid cyclogenesis near the left exit of a pumped up jet. Thus heavy rain and very strong winds across the countryt by Weds And this heralds the start of some unsettled weather
    12 points
  2. The Gfs 0z operational becomes anticyclonic during the mid month period and the GEFS 0z mean also indicates a gradually improving picture across southern u k during that timeframe with a number of anticyclonic members emerging...so, yes, next week does become unsettled from Wednesday but the second half / last third of March could see a marked improvement?
    6 points
  3. The general theme in the ext period is for the main tpv lobe to consolidate near northern Russia which facilitates, to some extent, subtropical high amplification in the eastern Atlantic. There is no agreement on this so a watching brief at the moment regarding detail Similar indications with the spv in the lower strat
    6 points
  4. GFS 18z is a stonker. A stonker for any time of year but seriously good for late March.
    5 points
  5. After this coming weeks stormy spell it is still looking good for a settled spell mid month. ECM has the high to our west but would probably drift north east with time.
    5 points
  6. Jeez it’s so dead in here, it must be spring..right?..anyway the Gfs 6z op delivers a late wintry blast although I admit it’s hard too get ice days in late March, cough cough..anyhoo..here’s some charts..this is model discussion isn’t it..hmmm?
    4 points
  7. Id love that to become reality, trouble is, all winter the GFS has produced some stunning cold charts in FI that only seldom verify. Until the noaa charts support these charts then im not getting any hopes up.
    4 points
  8. My alarm has just woken me up from early hibernation,... @MATTWOLVES,these are for you buddy... seriously though,the ops and ens have been showing this of late and it is not unheard of at this time of the year and i would welcome one last blast of cold weather before spring arrives proper bring it on Edit:just to add,...do you see a Lion over Scandi on the latest Sat? in with a lamb!,..out with a Lion!
    3 points
  9. ECM thinks it’ll be a bit breezy in many places next Thursday morning... Other models are also showing a similar picture at present.
    3 points
  10. Evening all A calm but chill day in lowland East London but more "dramatic" weather is on the cards next week with a spell of Atlantic-dominated unsettled weather but not last ing long with clear signs of renewed heights just after mid month on last evening's output. As for tonight, let's open the box and look inside. T+144 and T+240 charts to start from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively. T+144 (March 12th) T+240 (March 16th): At T+144 there's strong agreement on a mobile and strong W'ly pattern across the British Isles. Strong winds in the north but breezy elsewhere with fast moving showers or longer spells of rain. From there, Parallel builds heights to the south and west but keeps a strong Atlantic with a deep LP near Iceland by T+240. The other models develop HP close to the British Isles (or even over the British Isles in the case of GFS OP). GEM looks to build a ridge into Scandinavia and has a N'ly over eastern England while ECM also has a weak N'ly. Moving on to T+312 and T+384 from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 19th): T+384 (March 22nd): Not much to go on there - GFS OP would be fantastic for coldies and Control not too bad but Parallel seems the most keen tonight to maintain the Atlantic influence while CFS builds and HP close to the British Isles. Looks like a stormy spell next week followed by heights rising from the south west by T+240 but from there nothing as yet resolved (as you might expect).
    3 points
  11. Something for everyone on the 12z GFS. High drifts north and then it ends with an easterly and snow flurries into the east...
    3 points
  12. Why do you think I moved away? (Actually my moving to coastal Fife was nothing to do with the weather but I do enjoy living in the driest and sunniest part of Scotland and it does make for higher expectations in terms of sunshine). Plenty of sunshine on offer today in the East Neuk. Lovely walk up Largo Law.
    3 points
  13. Went for a walk between 09:00 and 10:00 this morning and, although there was not a hint of a breeze then, it was perishing cold. Both the breeze and the temperature are up a bit now and the cloud is breaking up nicely. Temperature 5.3deg.C up from a minimum of 0.8deg.C at 02:49, humidity i 67%, wind 0 to 3mph southerly, pressure is 1036.1hPa steady, there's been no rain in the last 24 hours, cloud cover is 5/8 and the dew point is at -1deg.C.
    3 points
  14. Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean longer term, there are clearly the green shoots of recovery from around mid month onwards following the very unsettled spell during the second half of next week...I’m actually quite positive about our prospects for the final third of March, no guarantees of course but it’s a recurring theme from the mid / longer term models to gradually settle things down!
    3 points
  15. Yes after this 'stormy' spell a period of relative calm looks increasingly likely. However still not clear imo how warm or indeed cool it will be. Both gfs and ecm dont show it being overly warm imo although that can be mitigated by increasing strength of the sun now. Potential for frosts for gardeners/growers i would have thought . Also ecm out to 240 hr does not appear that settled.....and the blue cold air to the NE is still showing on both..
    3 points
  16. An unsettled and possibly stormy look to the weather next week, as referred to by Knocker above, but at 10 days out (+240hrs) there is a hint of a possible return to more settled weather again (emphasis on the word ‘possible’ at this distance): +144hr +240hr ECM GFS GEM Overall, temperatures should be near average under these conditions so growers will be pleased that no hard frosts are in the charts for the next two weeks.
    3 points
  17. As expected we are seeing that after this westerly Atlantic rush, the repeating El Nino pattern of heights building in our region. The gfs op seems progressive, as its way when spotting a new theme: That is more amplified than the mean, as you would expect, but heading in that direction of a more settled period post d8/9: GEM at d8 also heading in that direction, ecm slower but looking in the ball park by d10. So issues of timing and how the pressure rise will manifest itself. Four drier days IMBY before the unsettled spell, but hopefully shortlived!
    3 points
  18. Evening all Another chilly day in lowland East London but the settled spell looks to be in its last days as next week looks much more unsettled and it may be we are in for a prolonged spell of mobile and unsettled conditions. The signal earlier in the week for a settled spell mid month looked to have faded last evening but both the GEM and ECM yesterday offered some possible routes to amplification in the medium term. On then to tonight's ramblings and let's look at T+144 and T+240 from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively: T+144 (March 11th): T+240 (March 15th): A lot of agreement across the models this evening. A brief but quite stormy period of Atlantic-driven weather starts early next week and persists for 3-5 days with deep LP crossing just to the north of the British Isles and the potential for some strong winds as well as rain and snow for hills and mountains especially in Scotland and northern England. From there, the Atlantic jet quickly slows again and this allows heights to rise from the south west and while ECM is more muted in bringing the Azores HP into play, GEM and both GFS OP and Parallel have distinct HP cells moving towards southern Britain and by T+240 these are either over northern France or near to Iberia. With the heights comes a relaxation in both wind and rain and rising temperatures as a more TM air flow takes over (again ECM is the most muted of the models retaining a weak but shallow trough from southern Iceland to Scandinavia). Moving on and the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 18th): T+384 (March 21st): After last night's flirtation with a more mobile evolution, the anticyclonic model is back with a vengeance this evening with a strong signal for height rises after mid month. The old conundrum is then where does the HP set up. Op and Parallel go with HP to the east which allows for a benign S'ly draw (not sure about Parallel's Atlantic hurricane at T+384). Control shows what a quieter northern jet can mean as the heights build further north and instead of a benign SE'ly, we get a chilly NE'ly across the south. CFS goes its own way and puts the core of heights to the south west. Both CFS and GFS OP keep a stronger northern jet while Parallel and Control have something rather weaker. I noticed this last evening but Parallel has a significantly weaker and warmer 10HPA profile further into FI than OP - I don't know if this is manifesting in slower zonal wind speeds on the Parallel but it's what you would expect later in March whereas OP keeps a more robust and colder vortex for longer.
    3 points
  19. Latest gfs is spring all over. Calm and cold followed by wet and very windy weather, indeed potentially stormy before turning colder again then calming down and warming up. Indeed right at end of run very warm air showing (although FI). At t384 it looks like the hot and cold air beasts are squaring up for a fight in the atlantic....
    3 points
  20. Gfs 18z toying with the idea of plunging us back into the freezer from the north....
    2 points
  21. Cold start to the day at -2c. Cold and cloudy most of the day with a moderate SW wind. A couple of closer views of Ben Wyvis taken from south of Dingwall yesterday as we were up for spares for the MF tractor. Also a photo of a letter written by a farmer of my vintage in Benbecula who also feels like me that the weather and seasons have returned to a pattern we remember as kids. He also feels that lack of aircraft has something to do with it as do I. Now the ground is much dryer we got round to sorting a drain that had burst. This drain had been put in in deep snow at Easter 1968 in April when we had around a foot of snow for two weeks with almost nightly top ups which must have been troughs/polar lows in the flow. Getting a cold spell in April 2021 would back up the letter above.
    2 points
  22. ECM clusters here T192-T240: Any which way? All interested in some kind of ridge for the UK by T240. T264-T360: While cluster 1 suggests a northerly, it is close to 50/50 between them 28/23 to be exact, I favour cluster 2, the UK high for the reasons I suggested yesterday. Welcome to a warm settled spring...
    2 points
  23. Forty seventh air frost at - 2.4°C around dawn. Went up the hill behind the cottage with the dog this afternoon. Gorgeous and chilly, which suited as it was quite the climb but up to 4.6°C.
    2 points
  24. The GFS 12z shows more or less the two opposite extremes of March weather at 384 hours away The coldest option Members 16 2m Temp 3.0 High pressure out to our west means a cold Arctic flow down from the north here and with low pressure playing a significant part over the UK itself then snow is a major possibility here, especially further north The warmest option Member 12 2m Temp 19.1 What could be a bigger contrast than Member 12 with warm air pushing in from the S and W and in the stronger late March sunshine temperatures are at 19.1 in Scunthorpe but in the SE 20c is very likely to be breached here Two examples here of how different things can be in March with warmer air threatening 20c whilst colder air masses can still remind us of how areas to the north have yet to warm up and can suddenly stick us back into winter very quickly
    2 points
  25. I had a 6hr wander up on Combs Moss yesterday despite the cold NEly wind in the morning and the overcast cloud at times, it turned out to be a easy-going day. I'm not looking forward to mid-week with the return of rain/sleet and gales but i'll just have to make-do with whatever calmer intervals occur inbetween the Atlantic fronts. Did anyone else see/hear the 2x F-35s from Marham over the Peak District yesterday? it was around 12:40ish and I could make them out in the distance travelling south to north over Rushup Edge, Kinder, and up over Bleaklow before I lost sight of them both visually.
    2 points
  26. Grade A Permagloom all day, and a max of 4.1c. What a contrast to last weekends glorious sunshine. Clear skies were here overnight though, allowing a frigid low of -6.8c - bucket of water outside still has a ice cap on it. Roll on milder weather...
    2 points
  27. Lovely bit of convergence between ECM and GFS for the gale midweek, subtle differences in timing now the main difference for the merging of the two low pressure systems between Iceland and Scotland. ECM still bringing the secondary low in more quickly to Northern Scotland by 0z Thursday, while the GFS keeps with the N-S troughing to the West of Ireland by that point, and brings it through to Scotland by 06z Thursday. Big similarities with ECM for 0z just running it in 6 hours later. ECM +120 00z GFS +114 06Z ; GFS +120 06z Irrespective of the timing, several hours of coastal and inland gales, arriving in Ireland some time Wednesday pm, transferring east across Wales to most of England, easing later on Thursday. Not so severe in Scotland early Thursday due to the slacker pressure gradient of the trough, but picking up right enough there too later on Thursday.
    2 points
  28. Beyond mid month cold from the north or mild from the south / south west? GEFS are split..either way no sign of anything zonal / unsettled for week 2
    2 points
  29. Just shows the difference in expectations. 9 hours of sun over the course of a week would be pretty decent in Glasgow just now.
    2 points
  30. Morning all, First air frost in three weeks here with a low of -0.6c (-3.7c at Leuchars). A more unsettled week ahead but we’ll probably see more sun than the meagre 9 hours recorded at Leuchars since Monday.
    2 points
  31. Lovely sunny start to the day with a heavy frost, but now just confined to the shade.
    2 points
  32. Maximum wind gusts for Wales either side of 9:00pm next Wednesday as predicted by the ECM this morning...... This is bound to change as we get nearer the middle of next week so one to watch.
    2 points
  33. There seems to be more consistency during the early hours of Thursday for a possible gale rather than Tuesday and Wednesday
    2 points
  34. Even today, forecasters/computer models struggle to predict the behaviour of stratocumulus/low clouds under a high pressure cell. Last weekend was sunnier than forecast here was an example. This weekend was suppose to be sunnier Look at the change in forecasts here This shows a lot of the region with clear skies by dawn Saturday A few hours later this was posted and this had most of Lancashire/Cheshire and Merseyside under cloud by dawn Saturday
    2 points
  35. The forum tends to be at it's quietest in the shoulder seasons, March-May unless there is an early summer burst on the cards or snow around, Sept-Oct unless early prospect of snow or late summer heat. September in average quietest month. Mid-summer can see it slumber when heat is not around. Late Dec early Jan peak activity generally except when a cold snowy spell incoming then it goes mad.
    2 points
  36. Similar here. Cloud broke this morning and the sun came out but in the shade still felt cold. Car temp showing -1C currently. +0.7C on the w/s and falling.
    2 points
  37. Looking at the GEFS 12z...Long way out but I think I’ve spotted BFTE 2.0!? ️
    2 points
  38. Some consistency for a settled spell mid month starting to show now though...
    2 points
  39. Yes have old maps that show farm in the 1880s with just the northern half in fields and then the 1890s with the southern half reclaimed from moorland by my great grandfather .He used a staff of 12 with a single furrow plough drawn by 2 oxon and removing stones constructing dykes and digging stone drains down to 8 feet depth all by hand There is even an annotation that is wrtten by the mapmaker detailing the reclaimation at one point with my great grandfathers name. Our family name goes back to 1868 here on the farm and at that point the lease was exchanged between two sisters married to two seperate farmers so the family connection goes back even further probably around 300 years. Cold yesterday exacerbated old back issues so am up moving about to ease it currently overcast and 2c.
    2 points
  40. Yes, I think last third of March, just so long as it is in place by 12 April
    1 point
  41. Well looks like Wednesday will give the new station a test
    1 point
  42. Cloudy morning but cloud thinned in the afternoon to give good spells of hazy sunshine. Bitterly cold with a max of just 4.0c. Temperature plummeting at the moment as already -2.8c, coldest night for quite a while.
    1 point
  43. However the cold is slowing down the process of spring flower growth, ultimately keeping the flowers that are out , out longer and delaying those buds that havent yet opened. Which means we can enjoy them for longer ( as long as no severe frosts kill them off )....
    1 point
  44. The development of the two lows along the frontal, baroclinic, zone, that eventually merge north of Scotland according to this evening's gfs
    1 point
  45. Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week is set to become increasingly unsettled but thereafter there are signs it will be relaxing it’s grip with more of a North / South split by mid month or soon after, there are some anticyclonic 6z members longer term and on balance I think at least the s / se will gradually improve over time, even if the n / nw doesn’t!...just my opinion!
    1 point
  46. Perishing cold even in full sun and no wind. I was going to sit out for a while but my extremities rebelled after 10 minutes. The damson tree is just about at bud burst so will get its 2nd oily wash today or tomorrow. There's little showing in the ground yet - although close inspection shows tiny shoots of green in a few places. Obvs daffodils well up now but nowhere near flowering and snowdrops still going strong. I checked the dustbins for forced rhubarb and was rather disappointed. The forecast is relentlessly cloudy after today. Crap eh, come on, spring!
    1 point
  47. Morning all. Looks like another copy and paste sort of day again here with the cloud rolling in. 3.4c/-1.4c/1035.4/WNW/calm. Overnight low of 0.7c Thanks Piffy!...(I think)
    1 point
  48. Thank Evans you're back. The balance of power in here can now move back towards sanity, sartorial scantiness, and suave sophistication. It's a fine day. Temperature 2.9deg.C up from a minimum of 1.5deg.C at 07:31, humidity is 69%, wind is 0 to 1mph south-southeasterly, pressure is 1038.2hPa rising slowly, there's been no rain in the last 24 hours and although cloud cover is 8/8 it's thin enough to allow a decent amount of brightness. The dew point, interestingly, is at -2deg.C, which is lower than it's been for weeks.
    1 point
  49. The last few years have been characterized by quick lurches from one extreme to another, though. Rarely do we get prolonged average spells anymore. Consequently, it's proven very hard to pinpoint the CET landing spot until at least mid-month in many instances. Though this month starts chilly, a stalled low to the west could propel temps upwards pretty quickly, as with last month.
    1 point
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