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Showing content with the highest reputation on 24/02/21 in all areas
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I think I'm now on Day 100 of the cold chase!! I'm all alone,I'm isolated,its bleak....the food is running low...pretty soon water shortages will follow..Yesterday I put out an SOS to fellow coldies on a broken Radio Transmission Signal...and I only got 3 or 4 replies back meaning things are quickly in disintegration out there! Any of you out there....call me,let me know your still part of the search for cold conquest!! I don't hold out much hope though as many of you will now be looking to book an early cheap Holiday away from it all My work continues without doubt...My aim is to bring joy into your cold searching Hearts! JOIN ME....IM BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISOLATED BY THE DAY!38 points
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I was making a joke of this with Marco P on twitter last night..I think Exeter are getting tempted by my services...I actually offered to make the tea and sweep up! Although that could have been for @Griff Are you telling me we are now without hope?? I've just spotted a small circle of -4C 850s about 50 miles large..small acorns and all that10 points
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Firstly Mike...I've been banging the drum for quite some time now...and tbh the skin as split...but not to worry I've just ordered an electric set from Amazon,so I can beat that drum even harder this time.. know way is Winter over....not on my watch....well technically its kind of finished but the hope lives on through March...And I can't complain this Winter...I've had falling snow on so many occasions...at one point from late December it was lying for over a week.. There is plenty of interesting ens from the 12s again...and I'm gonna keep beating that drum with my rhythm stick Fair play to the other chaps who continue to Hunt....you know who you are and you make me proud....Have ya self's a nice little tipple on me.9 points
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The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks really pleasant / anticyclonic with power to add beyond day 10...no suggestion that the Atlantic will break through at all once the high becomes established, even the op reinforces the anticyclonic theme at T+240 hours....whilst I’m a coldie, I’m actually looking forward to a spell of quiet settled weather with plenty of strengthening early spring sunshine but with some rather cold nights with a risk of frost and fog.9 points
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Certainly Daniel...they trend down towards day 10....Then the mean slightly increases before falling away again by day 14...That mean was around -3C for the Midlands...and there's a fair amount of spread between the members with some being quite a bit colder! But the form horse i feel is on a general Cooling trend overall..Gather the troops kid...I still think a short sharp shock is not out of the question before all is said and done.7 points
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UKMO and ECM output aligning together, GFS not so, differences in handling of Atlantic trough. UKMO suggesting a more negatively aligned trough allowing warm air affection through east Atlantic consequently the high pressure ridges further north, allowing cold air advection to the east. GFS sort if doing this but everything shunted further west, it shows heights developing over Greenland and a slow moving system spinning around south of Greenland, it then pivots north and shunts heights away to our east, allowing more if an Atlantic feed. Non the wiser which model has it right. Quite often we see this development, UKMO and ECM aligned, GFS more progressive. End result usually something inbetween, which to me suggests mid Atlantic heights going nowhere fast. Pleasant days and chilly nights. Not very exciting but perhaps that's just what we need now, some calm !7 points
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UKMO 144 raising an eyebrow tonight....Im ready for spring, but if winter wants to make comeback then that's fine by me.5 points
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A few hours ago, I heard the deeply distressing news, that my Son Antony passed away, in his sleep overnight. Antony was in the advanced stages of Huntington's Disease, which is a genetic and terminal illness. Antony inherited the condition from his Mother, my first Wife. He would have been 40, next Month. He passed away at Home, where he lived with his Sister Hayley, and her Boyfriend. I realised that Antony was only a matter of Months away, from being placed in a Care Home but thought he might still have another few Years of Life to come. It obviously was a tremendous shock to hear the news of his passing, from my Daughter's Boyfriend. I have just put an In Memoriam post up in that Thread, to Antony's memory. Regards, Tom.5 points
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Come on guys don't get ruining our cold chase by talking of Summer How's about what @Daniel* says with some good old Ntlys bringing cool sunny days and frosts and snow showers of an evening....im just dying to have to ramp up the log burner of a July evening under clear starry skies... Those Heights on the 18s are looking promising guys... a few tweaks here and there and we could be in with a shout. @Allseasons-si I think @Mike Poole as jumped ship now...he keeps talking up the Summer. Where is your staying power Mike5 points
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To the non white flaggers out there,...you know who you are... @MATTWOLVES @Griff @Battleground Snow @Mike Poole and @Don the ecm/gfs means lift away the lower heights from our NW from day ten> to relocate to Siberia on the 12z day ten EPS and cpc latest anomaly charts,it wouldn't take much tweaking to get a back door easterly from here,...what goes up must come around and i will be monitoring this in the days ahead The EPS trajectory tactile to 192 hours showing some blocking to our N/NW the fight goes on at least to keep the white flag below half mast,...i haven't got my pole up yet,...ha ha.5 points
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We have a real dichotomy here, with the EPS it’s an overwhelming signal for HP domination throughout, 240 is illustrative Meanwhile the GEFS flatten the pattern significantly by that point, and trend quite chilly and unsettled thereafter The GEPS take the middle ground, illustrating the difficulty at making a punt at this point, though probably more EPS like Given the para Gfs and, by the looks of it, UKMO, follow the EPS you’d have to give that more weighting. Nevertheless, the models have a tendency to slowly flatten mean U.K. highs to Bartletts and until that solution disappears from the output completely you can’t discount it. Much of this seems to hinge on the amplification shown at day 6 The ECM shows this clearly, and this height rise translates into a Prolonged settled spell. The GFS doesn’t and the westerlies are back in NW U.K. quicker than you can say told ya friggin so. Here in Cumbria it would be nice if the amp happy EPS had this one nailed. If not it’s one last hurrah for GFS. So long and thanks for all the borrocks GFS, you won’t be missed4 points
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GFS // has high pressure hanging around for most of the latter half of the run, T192, T384: A dry and mostly warm spell upcoming. Fair play to @MATTWOLVES for continuing to bang the drum for cold, but it is looking like a busted flush now, because I can’t see many drivers for it at all. The strat influence has been and gone now, the MJO is in the COD, AAM might pick up a bit as per CFS, unlikely to be enough: Oh well, by current standards, it was an above average winter here re snow, we had one good snowfall that was melting by mid day, and a few flurries apart from that. And if that is above average, shows the perilous state of the UK winter these days...4 points
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Anyone still up for some snow?4 points
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Yesterday was miserable. Today seems a bit more useable. Have to be honest and say, in a departure from previous trends, I’m really enjoying the milder conditions where it’s dry. An early spring would be nice.4 points
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I would just like to say that over the last couple of days i am starting to see a trough undercut the high post day ten,...IE:-cold backing W/SW under the block hang in there coldies4 points
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Back in the days when we lived in Texas, for a time we worked out of San Antonio. Always remember watching a massive stone crushing machine work a field near there, bit like this but on a even grander scale. Usually the soils there are very stony (bit like the glacial till round here) but what a wonderful looking soil it seemed to produce with the rocks crushed to broad bean size at most. Speaking to the farmer, he said the machine dug/pulverised the soil down to about 14 inches which I thought was pretty impressive. I thought it would be a once in a lifetime job but apparently they do it every 25 years or so after deep plowing due to hardpan/caliche issues. Never seen that kind of machine here, suspect expense and practicality to the fore there. Meanwhile, another record breaking temperature for the year here topping out at 11.9c. Again very gusty winds spoiled the show, making it feel a lot less than that. Dry and good periods of sunshine. More of the same please, but with less wind! Nice sunset again.3 points
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I'd just like to thank all those Members above again, for your very kind words, regarding my Son Antony's, passing. A couple of hours after Antony and Hayley's Mother (my first Wife) died, they wanted to have a bit of comedy, as a timely distraction. They chose to watch, "Monty Python's Holy Grail." I was amazed by my children's, stoicism. Although their Mother's passing was totally expected, it was still a terrible shock, for all of us. Antony was 27 and Hayley was 25, at the time. Far too young, for them to be losing their Mother. In the memory of Antony, we've just had a repeat of that moment in time. Colette, myself and my Stepson, just watched the same Film. Just want to post up a few of Antony's photos, I posted on the In Memoriam Thread, a few hours ago: Antony at 6 Months, with his Mother, my first Wife Jackie-Lee. Antony at 3 and a half, and his Sister at 18 Months. Antony next to my Mother (R.I.P.), his Italian Nan, on her 80th Birthday, in 2004. Hayley/Antony (extreme left), with an English Cousin and 3 Italian Cousins, in 2006. Sadly the 2 Boys in the photo, have now passed away. The last photo I took of Antony, in the hot Summer of 2018, with Dad's Panama Trilby. It must be a very strange Evening over in Chislehurst, where Antony lived with his Sister, and her Boyfriend, and I bet their 4 Cats, are missing him as well. Thanks again, for all your kind words of condolence. Kind Regards, Tom, Colette and Family.3 points
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ECM clusters T192-T240: T264-T360: Yes high pressure for UK, but around that a bewildering array of possibilities. Almost meaningless to look at the individual evolutions in the charts, maybe best to look at the border colours: T240: 35/51 Scandi block 16/51 Atlantic ridge T360: 9/51 -NAO, 42/51 Atlantic ridge. Make of that what you will...3 points
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After a week of strong southerly winds and little rain ground conditions are rapidly improving.Young Mr Northernlights has been moving on with stone removal and cultivating tracks. Wonderful frost mould after the cold spell earlier in the month. Mild today at 13c maximum and daffs breaking surface now. Been vaccinating young female cattle today for B.V.D. Frost can really kick start the drying process but being on the right of the mountains with a southerly wind helps too.Tractors starting to appear in surrounding fields.3 points
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Evening all, Aside from the glorious week of wintry conditions, February has been dire in terms of weather here with rainfall sitting at around 220% of normal and sunshine just 47% of normal. The monthly mean temperature now sitting at -0.4c. (All figures Leuchars). Still I would take the three weeks of crap for one memorable snowy spell all over again! Certainly looks drier as we head into March. I’ll soon be on haar watch3 points
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A miserable day, worse than yesterday given the rain started off light yesterday, but today moderate throughout. 9 degrees, not especially mild. Why cant we have 48 hrs of heavy snow, no problem with rain! The dreaded SW airstream.3 points
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last few GFS runs in FI been noticing potential snowy charts, no thank you to high pressure, want something interesting before April 12th3 points
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Would one be right in thinking that the chance of imminent heavy snowfall is currently somewhat remote? Thought so. This place is about as busy as the EU stand at a Little Englander Convention. Still, nicer day today than yesterday; the ground is even drying up now. Temperature 9.4deg.C down from a maximum of 10.3deg.C at 00:12 and up from a minimum of 9.2deg.C at 04:14, humidity is 84%, wind is 3 to 5mph southerly, pressure is 1011.7hPa steady, there's been no rain today and cloud cover is 8/8 but thin enough to allow some brightness.3 points
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Beware the ides of March... Certainly wouldn’t be out of place for the time of year, and potentially an easier route to a late cold spell than through the back door.3 points
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After feeling thoroughly spring like yesterday, a pretty foul day today. Less rain than expected but the wind was pretty gusty, particularly early afternoon. A few trees down locally and roof slates flying about.3 points
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Quite gusty here just now with spits and spots in the wind. Bridge closed to high siders but otherwise ok so nothing over 60 mph here yet. Was quite wet overnight but since morning just showers rather than steady rain. 10.2C currently from a max of 10.8C and a min of 4.5C this morning. I expect some flooding reports up in Perthshire by morning. Here are the upper falls of Moness this afternoon on facebook. This was all frozen a week ago. Beyond Adventure on Facebook Watch FB.WATCH3 points
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This is a nice looking GEFS 12z Mean / Moyenne....but only if you’re a fan of high pressure?...it lasts well into early March / Mars.....and on the face of it would produce a good deal of strong early spring sunshine meaning very pleasant surface conditions but also some cold nights with fog and frost.3 points
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Extended ens beginning to sniff a nw euro trough of sorts end week 2. Depth of cold will depend on strength of Atlantic ridging upstream of it (if it verifies)2 points
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So far we've escaped the worst of the rain and even had a bit of sun peek through earlier! That wind though2 points