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Showing content with the highest reputation on 24/02/21 in all areas

  1. I think I'm now on Day 100 of the cold chase!! I'm all alone,I'm isolated,its bleak....the food is running low...pretty soon water shortages will follow..Yesterday I put out an SOS to fellow coldies on a broken Radio Transmission Signal...and I only got 3 or 4 replies back meaning things are quickly in disintegration out there! Any of you out there....call me,let me know your still part of the search for cold conquest!! I don't hold out much hope though as many of you will now be looking to book an early cheap Holiday away from it all 🤣 My work continues without doubt...My aim is to bring
    38 points
  2. I was making a joke of this with Marco P on twitter last night..I think Exeter are getting tempted by my services...I actually offered to make the tea and sweep up! Although that could have been for @Griff 🤣 Are you telling me we are now without hope?? I've just spotted a small circle of -4C 850s about 50 miles large..small acorns and all that🤣
    10 points
  3. Firstly Mike...I've been banging the drum for quite some time now...and tbh the skin as split...but not to worry I've just ordered an electric set from Amazon,so I can beat that drum even harder this time..😉 know way is Winter over....not on my watch....well technically its kind of finished but the hope lives on through March...And I can't complain this Winter...I've had falling snow on so many occasions...at one point from late December it was lying for over a week.. There is plenty of interesting ens from the 12s again...and I'm gonna keep beating that drum with my rhythm stick 🎶 Fair p
    9 points
  4. The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks really pleasant / anticyclonic with power to add beyond day 10...no suggestion that the Atlantic will break through at all once the high becomes established, even the op reinforces the anticyclonic theme at T+240 hours....whilst I’m a coldie, I’m actually looking forward to a spell of quiet settled weather with plenty of strengthening early spring sunshine but with some rather cold nights with a risk of frost and fog. ☀️
    9 points
  5. Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean seems to be rock-solid about a prolonged anticyclonic spell, much as the earlier 0z...so, a quiet pleasant period is just around the corner!☀️
    8 points
  6. WOW UKMO!!!👍👊 144. this is more amplified than the gfs and gfs//p. Lol @MATTWOLVES,just read your post^,top post mate and don't worry you are not alone😏
    8 points
  7. Certainly Daniel...they trend down towards day 10....Then the mean slightly increases before falling away again by day 14...That mean was around -3C for the Midlands...and there's a fair amount of spread between the members with some being quite a bit colder! But the form horse i feel is on a general Cooling trend overall..Gather the troops kid...I still think a short sharp shock is not out of the question before all is said and done.
    7 points
  8. UKMO and ECM output aligning together, GFS not so, differences in handling of Atlantic trough. UKMO suggesting a more negatively aligned trough allowing warm air affection through east Atlantic consequently the high pressure ridges further north, allowing cold air advection to the east. GFS sort if doing this but everything shunted further west, it shows heights developing over Greenland and a slow moving system spinning around south of Greenland, it then pivots north and shunts heights away to our east, allowing more if an Atlantic feed. Non the wiser which model has it right. Quite ofte
    7 points
  9. "Here's Johnny!!!!!!!" It's a-coming!
    7 points
  10. To be honest I can’t decide if I want this in spring 🤔
    7 points
  11. The plot thickens at 168, a bit more amplification here and we are in business.
    6 points
  12. A couple of hours ago, I heard the deeply distressing news, that my Son Antony passed away, in his sleep overnight. Antony was in the advanced stages of Huntington's Disease, which is a genetic and terminal illness. Antony inherited the condition from his Mother, my first Wife. He would have been 40, next Month. He passed away at Home, where he lived with his Sister Hayley, and her Boyfriend. I realised that Antony was only a matter of Months away, from being placed in a Care Home but thought he might still have another few Years of Life to come. It obviously was
    6 points
  13. Not very exciting but not mild.
    5 points
  14. 👀 Edit: ah... It's my birthday of course 😜
    5 points
  15. T216, well nice to see a ridge but it doesn’t seem to be advecting cold towards the UK yet, so maybe a bit of a curate’s egg, this one?
    5 points
  16. Purely my wishful thinking I would have presumed... 😜
    5 points
  17. The ECM and UKMO at 144... interesting as these are V similar.
    5 points
  18. UKMO 144 raising an eyebrow tonight....Im ready for spring, but if winter wants to make comeback then that's fine by me.
    5 points
  19. A few hours ago, I heard the deeply distressing news, that my Son Antony passed away, in his sleep overnight. Antony was in the advanced stages of Huntington's Disease, which is a genetic and terminal illness. Antony inherited the condition from his Mother, my first Wife. He would have been 40, next Month. He passed away at Home, where he lived with his Sister Hayley, and her Boyfriend. I realised that Antony was only a matter of Months away, from being placed in a Care Home but thought he might still have another few Years of Life to come. It obviously was a trem
    5 points
  20. Come on guys don't get ruining our cold chase by talking of Summer 🤣 How's about what @Daniel* says with some good old Ntlys bringing cool sunny days and frosts and snow showers of an evening....im just dying to have to ramp up the log burner of a July evening under clear starry skies... Those Heights on the 18s are looking promising guys... a few tweaks here and there and we could be in with a shout. @Allseasons-si I think @Mike Poole as jumped ship now...he keeps talking up the Summer. Where is your staying power Mike 🤣
    5 points
  21. To the non white flaggers out there,...you know who you are... @MATTWOLVES @Griff @Battleground Snow @Mike Poole and @Don the ecm/gfs means lift away the lower heights from our NW from day ten> to relocate to Siberia on the 12z day ten EPS and cpc latest anomaly charts,it wouldn't take much tweaking to get a back door easterly from here,...what goes up must come around and i will be monitoring this in the days ahead The EPS trajectory tactile to 192 hours showing some blocking to our N/NW the fight goes on at least to keep the white flag belo
    5 points
  22. We have a real dichotomy here, with the EPS it’s an overwhelming signal for HP domination throughout, 240 is illustrative Meanwhile the GEFS flatten the pattern significantly by that point, and trend quite chilly and unsettled thereafter The GEPS take the middle ground, illustrating the difficulty at making a punt at this point, though probably more EPS like Given the para Gfs and, by the looks of it, UKMO, follow the EPS you’d have to give that more weighting. Nevertheless, the models have a tendency to slowly flatten mean U.K. highs to Bartletts and
    4 points
  23. Looks suspiciously like the GFS op and para runs from the last few days, strange how GFS does that so often. Yes it's day 10, but interest comes from the Ukmo and ECM in agreement at days 5 and 6
    4 points
  24. Hmmm next frame may be interesting on the ECM.
    4 points
  25. GFS // has high pressure hanging around for most of the latter half of the run, T192, T384: A dry and mostly warm spell upcoming. Fair play to @MATTWOLVES for continuing to bang the drum for cold, but it is looking like a busted flush now, because I can’t see many drivers for it at all. The strat influence has been and gone now, the MJO is in the COD, AAM might pick up a bit as per CFS, unlikely to be enough: Oh well, by current standards, it was an above average winter here re snow, we had one good snowfall that was melting by mid day, and a few flurries apart from
    4 points
  26. Just logged in, thought there would have been more than one comment on that UKMO, definitely got potential, GFS doing it's spot the FI pattern and then drop it in the mid term, Gem the middle ground at 144
    4 points
  27. There are always models though, aren't there, and currently showing better than constant Westerly mild and wet... I predict a frost at the very least.
    4 points
  28. Yesterday was miserable. Today seems a bit more useable. Have to be honest and say, in a departure from previous trends, I’m really enjoying the milder conditions where it’s dry. An early spring would be nice.
    4 points
  29. Oh go on then , I’m in one last chase this year 😊.
    4 points
  30. I would just like to say that over the last couple of days i am starting to see a trough undercut the high post day ten,...IE:-cold backing W/SW under the block hang in there coldies😏
    4 points
  31. Back in the days when we lived in Texas, for a time we worked out of San Antonio. Always remember watching a massive stone crushing machine work a field near there, bit like this but on a even grander scale. Usually the soils there are very stony (bit like the glacial till round here) but what a wonderful looking soil it seemed to produce with the rocks crushed to broad bean size at most. Speaking to the farmer, he said the machine dug/pulverised the soil down to about 14 inches which I thought was pretty impressive. I thought it would be a once in a lifetime job but apparently they do it
    3 points
  32. I'd just like to thank all those Members above again, for your very kind words, regarding my Son Antony's, passing. A couple of hours after Antony and Hayley's Mother (my first Wife) died, they wanted to have a bit of comedy, as a timely distraction. They chose to watch, "Monty Python's Holy Grail." I was amazed by my children's, stoicism. Although their Mother's passing was totally expected, it was still a terrible shock, for all of us. Antony was 27 and Hayley was 25, at the time. Far too young, for them to be losing their Mother. In the memory of Antony, we've just
    3 points
  33. ECM clusters T192-T240: T264-T360: Yes high pressure for UK, but around that a bewildering array of possibilities. Almost meaningless to look at the individual evolutions in the charts, maybe best to look at the border colours: T240: 35/51 Scandi block 16/51 Atlantic ridge T360: 9/51 -NAO, 42/51 Atlantic ridge. Make of that what you will...
    3 points
  34. Just a hint of colder solutions appearing towards day 10, Hopefully somebody can share the extended
    3 points
  35. Yes, Karl, the spread is interesting too, T 240: Almost zero uncertainty over the UK 10 days out, whatever might be happening, isn’t happening in our locale, that’s for sure.
    3 points
  36. After a week of strong southerly winds and little rain ground conditions are rapidly improving.Young Mr Northernlights has been moving on with stone removal and cultivating tracks. Wonderful frost mould after the cold spell earlier in the month. Mild today at 13c maximum and daffs breaking surface now. Been vaccinating young female cattle today for B.V.D. Frost can really kick start the drying process but being on the right of the mountains with a southerly wind helps too.Tractors starting to appear in surrounding fields.
    3 points
  37. Evening all, Aside from the glorious week of wintry conditions, February has been dire in terms of weather here with rainfall sitting at around 220% of normal and sunshine just 47% of normal. The monthly mean temperature now sitting at -0.4c. (All figures Leuchars). Still I would take the three weeks of crap for one memorable snowy spell all over again! 😄 Certainly looks drier as we head into March. I’ll soon be on haar watch 😉
    3 points
  38. A miserable day, worse than yesterday given the rain started off light yesterday, but today moderate throughout. 9 degrees, not especially mild. Why cant we have 48 hrs of heavy snow, no problem with rain! The dreaded SW airstream.
    3 points
  39. ECM T168: Is this realistic? And will it develop into something interesting? Not long to wait for the latter, 5 minutes!
    3 points
  40. last few GFS runs in FI been noticing potential snowy charts, no thank you to high pressure, want something interesting before April 12th
    3 points
  41. Would one be right in thinking that the chance of imminent heavy snowfall is currently somewhat remote? Thought so. This place is about as busy as the EU stand at a Little Englander Convention. Still, nicer day today than yesterday; the ground is even drying up now. Temperature 9.4deg.C down from a maximum of 10.3deg.C at 00:12 and up from a minimum of 9.2deg.C at 04:14, humidity is 84%, wind is 3 to 5mph southerly, pressure is 1011.7hPa steady, there's been no rain today and cloud cover is 8/8 but thin enough to allow some brightness.
    3 points
  42. RIP Tom's son Antony 24/2/2021 and RIP my dad 2/1/2021
    3 points
  43. Beware the ides of March... Certainly wouldn’t be out of place for the time of year, and potentially an easier route to a late cold spell than through the back door.
    3 points
  44. ^Just to add... We just need the lower heights under the block to prop the high up,...something to work on but slowly catchy monkey!!!
    3 points
  45. After feeling thoroughly spring like yesterday, a pretty foul day today. Less rain than expected but the wind was pretty gusty, particularly early afternoon. A few trees down locally and roof slates flying about.
    3 points
  46. Quite gusty here just now with spits and spots in the wind. Bridge closed to high siders but otherwise ok so nothing over 60 mph here yet. Was quite wet overnight but since morning just showers rather than steady rain. 10.2C currently from a max of 10.8C and a min of 4.5C this morning. I expect some flooding reports up in Perthshire by morning. Here are the upper falls of Moness this afternoon on facebook. This was all frozen a week ago. Beyond Adventure on Facebook Watch FB.WATCH
    3 points
  47. ECM mean T240, a 1030 high on the mean, and it has that reload look about it, it can stay until August as far as I am concerned:
    3 points
  48. This is a nice looking GEFS 12z Mean / Moyenne.😜...but only if you’re a fan of high pressure?...it lasts well into early March / Mars..😀...and on the face of it would produce a good deal of strong early spring sunshine meaning very pleasant surface conditions but also some cold nights with fog and frost. ☀️
    3 points
  49. Extremely windy today. Some kind of weather front or change in wind direction must have passed through as it created some interesting formations.
    3 points
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