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Ladies and gentlemen you are not going to believe it. After a wait of almost 3 years...

Very encouraging if you wish to see an extension of cold temps in my opinion. The 06Z is going to bring back an E,ly after the SE,ly.

Well blew work out and got some fun in the Snow at last IMG_3041.MOV

Not quite as strong a Scandi high as the 0z pal but the 46 keeps it cold and v blocked well into March Week 3 Week 4 Normally these charts would electrify this forum, but understandably given the vagaries of this winter and the present snow fix granted for many it’s only a passing interest. But we must continue our work discussing the models, and this is what they are showing at present. Cold and blocked remains the form horse, with a 25% threat of an Atlantic incursion of unknown duration.

An encouraging start to our “ Save the easterly campaign “ ! The ICON 06 hrs run has the high further north at day 5 with the upstream low corrected westwards .

finally some decent snow. just been round the block

Been an exceptional 24 hours!

So surely there are no posters who say the Amber wasnt warranted now ?? I know not every area in the Amber got what an Amber warning deserved but plenty of places did. When Storm warnings are Issued not every place in those warnings get a Storm for Instance. Some places now well over 20cm and with roads closed and drifting and stories of tractors rescuing people trapped etc. Add into that quite exceptional temperatures for a Maritime Island not rising above -2c then surely the people saying the Amber should not have been Issued can say it certainly was. I think the Met Office have done a great job with the risk zones and the timings of things.

I can't argue with that. I moved to Aberdeenshire in Jan 2009 and the first 2 winters (in Kemnay) were awesome, with everything between then and this winter being kind of 'meh' apart from short spells. Parents struggling with home learning look away now, as I bunked off home schooling for a bit and took the dog for a walk slightly further down the hill today, as going up the hill wasn't likely an option. In my defence the dog was driving me nuts wanting in and out of the house/garden, I don't have any live lessons on a Monday afternoon, and the sun was shining. Any skin exposed to even the fairly light wind was certainly reminding me of the temperature though (around -2C), despite the sun. The result are some different pictures for a change.... Hopefully not another 10 years before I see our house as bedecked in snow again....

At the moment, snow won't be how this spell is remembered (except maybe Cornwall/Devon?!?) but it will be for cold. ECM looks like some spots in SE and central England may not see temperatures above 1C within the whole 10 days of its run. It is a really close call between a UKMO and ECM ending. Not a lot in it at D5. I doubt the UKMO will be that mild except in the west, though. Also, bear in mind always the magic of blocking to the east. Not 72 hours ago the models unanimously pushed snow and rain right up into N Scotland. Now it doesn't get past Bristol, maybe not even that. That's a 500 mile turnaround. The point being, blocks to the east have a way of baffling the models even at short timescales. Is it even inconceivable the deep cold will come back?

Room for a very jealous Englishman? I miss my days living in Dalry when easterlies would bring convective snow roaring up the Firth of Forth. Epic memories of December 2010! A couple of you might remember me. Enjoy every second of it, the radar looks incredible.

We've been getting lots of graupel here today too. I think you can almost see the difference between graupel and snow showers on the radar - to me graupel showers have jaggy edges whereas snow showers look much more smooth. Graupel showers also tend to become smoother the further inland they get. Despite doing a meteorology degree, I must admit that I'm not completely sure what atmospheric conditions lead to graupel formation... However, something to note is that showers really should be pepping up during the next 24 hours as much colder air at 500 hPa floods in (see 2 pm today vs 2 pm tomorrow). The North Sea snow machine is already producing pretty beefy showers so somewhere is really going to get pasted.

My 76 year old father snow blading today in Newnham, Kent. They’ve had around 4” over the last 24 hours. Temp is -0.8 there right now V jealous indeed as I look out over green fields in the valleys, S Wales Oh well we’ve done ok for snow so far here so glad the SE are joining in! IMG_6659.MP4

Now 4cm in Pittenweem!

27cm on the table. Very impressed and hopefully abit more. Im hoping those home grown showers give us a little bit

Started to rain here. HA! Bet that made a few of you swear.

Been very heavy showers here last couple of hours... One lasted 40 minutes just as went out to sledge and snowball fight which was just luck.... Ive steered clear of the radar today just looking now. Hope the whole perth contingent have had these showers I have been getting. Defo lining up beefier ones towards Lothian now but plenty random showers being generated and given the forecasts in here confident will have about 13cm to 15cm by tomorrow morning. Been so consumed by this spell not looked beyond Wednesday so may go and see what the future potentially holds aswell. Delighted for @Hawesy And just like that I think @Norranceshower from his walk has reached here. Vid from around 4.45 earlier. 20210208_170547.mp4

Safety officer shut the site at 0930 due to weather forecast?? As it stands the site is expected to stay shut until Thursday. Roads are a bit of a mess. Couple of pictures from Torphin area on the way home. Temperature over deeside was -6C. Here comes the freeze.

More heavy snow showers overnight depositing at least another 8-10 cms snow, virtually impossible now to walk across the fields as snow is knee to thigh deep never mind the drifts which are now up and over most stone walls. Wind has dropped away temps -4 with wind chill -7.

Aye nice one Sean, there was me happy with snow from last blob that passed through.

It's still astounding to me that the operational forecaster at the Met Office is watching this and not putting an immediate amber warning out. White out conditions and snow covering the busiest motorway in Scotland surely merits something more than yellow on the impact matrix. We've seen this time after time with easterlies, and it's not like their own models aren't showing this.

Personally I’d bank the 6z GFS. We get a snowy breakdown next week then a reload with masses of snow potential week 2..what’s not to like ??️

Incredible in just a few minutes... IMG_1970.MOV

The faux cold v real cold debate ! Faux cold , upper levels aren’t cold but in winter you can get a shallower layer of cold close to the surface . Real cold , upper levels are very cold and cold at the surface , for convection you must have that upper level cold . For frontal snow in the UK the upper level needs to remain below freezing but don’t need to be very cold as long as the flow ahead of any precip is drawn from an area with below freezing dew points , this type of frontal snow is normally associated with fronts moving in after a period of colder weather where the cold becomes embedded at the surface , most common with attempted breakdowns after a spell of east or ne’rlies. The issue moving forward is whether any high towards Scandi aligns favourably to bring back some real cold or whether the high isn’t favourably aligned and its more of the faux cold with the flow remaining with an easterly element but the 850 temps have relaxed . It will remain on the cold side because in effect you have that surface cold as long as you maintain the flow off the near Continent . The cold getting further there than originally forecast does help on that front . One can’t underestimate the importance of your base position of the Scandi high , so how far north does get that and the position of the cold pool . If you don’t have that then you require upstream changes to recover the situation but once the cold pool has missed to the se you’ll then have to wait to see if that happens down the line . The chances of another cold easterly within ten days will be decided within day 6 as that’s where your base position will be set .

I've been outside since dawn - made no difference so far

Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door, as I came back in I shouted to my daughter " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey" Didn't realise she was on her team lesson and was greeted with laughter from the rest of the class plus teacher. Now been banned from living room while she is in lesson.

Afternoon all. I thought i would do my second post this year and i am a guy who loves extremities of weather. I have never really been truly taken in by this easterly as being a severe one , yes very cold and snow showers but where are the blizzards and snow fronts that arrive from Northern Europe/Scandinavia . The cold we have now originates from low pressure that has originated over Spain and as this moved north east and reached the Netherlands easterly winds formed that has introduced this colder air. A BFTE is more likely to take place when intense high pressure has built up and in place over Scandinavia/Siberia and if possible links to a Greenland high and then low pressures from the atlantic are diverted to the south of us and well in to central Europe. The charts do not show that but however they are once again showing possibly in the near future of some heights to our NorthEast but long lasting , i doubt. This winter so far has been remarkable for the length of moderate cold we have had and no really mild spells. It does look this week after the snow showers of today and nearer the eastern coasts tomorrow, we will have several dry days at last and some hard frosts with daytimes nearer zero. Thats not a BFTE . Being as I am now in my sixties and have had a lifelong interest in weather and some years ( primarily sixties and seventies and odd exceptions later) i can rememember that roads became so bad with the accumulations of snow , and had to be dug out and became virtually a single lane down the middle with drifts either side over the hedges and we are in Chesterfield at only 80 metres. Models as they look now and near future. Easterly and then south easterly winds seem to dominate, and after early snow showers, from midweek lots of sunshine but cold and dry with very hard frosts. Great for your daily exercise. Then it looks like we will have some sort of battleground developing next weekend . This looks a bit iffy and very unlikely that we will have l have a classic blizzard stalling front, and then more stalling fronts to follow producing even more snow before the melt takes place. If this does happen and we do get stalling fronts and they go under in to Europe then this will give time for heights to really develop to the north and east of us and that could produce something very special. I cant see that, but one to watch. Models after next week. Once again this long rather cold winter looks like continuing with mixed results. High pressure developing to the north east this week looks to be gradually pushed away as depressions start pushing towards British Isles trying to introduce milder air. I am sure this cold air will not be lifted quickly . We do however need one of these depressions to swing in to Europe and not stall to the south or west of us. With the jet stream still further south than usual in the relatively active atlantic, the prospects are still there for significant snowfall particularly the further north you live My feelings beyond that I do think we will have a continuation of this cold winter and during early March we may hit the jackpot. To have a winter with such beautiful synoptics ( often 10 days away)it would be a shame to not have a memorable spell of severe weather. In this modern climate it could be years before having another winter like this with so many chances There is still time, as it would not take much movement of this winters pattern in the Northern Hemisphere to produce the real goods. and dont forget the SSW which may or may not move this pattern to our advantage very quickly. Hope you all receive some snow in the next 24 hours and it should last on the ground all week. At the moment i am looking at all the blobs over the North Sea and hoping that they will clump together to give all of us settling snow. My weather radar updates every 15 minutes and there does seem some development taking place over the North Sea nearer Norway . I will be watching it closely next 2 hours . It looks in line for Northern England ... sweet spot would be Yorkshire looking at the flow. If it develops i would expect nearer 5pm it could get interesting Philip

Yaaaaaaaaas! Mon the snow shower!!!

Friend took this!

Amazing snow conditions now!

GERONIMO !!! Been going 15mins now. Radar sure is deceiving!

I love sea effect snow Brilliant u are getting it too @Hawesy ?️?️?️

Persuaded my wife to go for a pre tea walk in the sun just before our heaviest and most prolonged shower of this spell. (I knew from the radar it was coming). Eased off now but more incoming.

Decided to head to the Wye Downs, I knew it would be busy but thankfully most of the people stayed in an isolated area so i managed to get a few nice shots including one showing how deep it was on the hills

Banchory to Fettercairn Road.

The cat is not so sure about this stuff now that she is getting on a bit. She is a Snowshoe Siamese so should like it imo. The path just to the left was cleared this morning and the tabletop earlier so some has built up this morning. Nice drift building on the A822. Here the sun just getting hidden as cloud builds again from the East. The centre of recent showers has been just to my North. Now on again.

Measuring duty completed. For the older generation the total is... And for the younger whippersnappers... Showers passing by the south of here, so plenty of sunshine at the moment. With the light winds, feels lovely outside in the sun - temperature has continued to rise, now -0.5c.

Pretty nasty conditions heading up the North facing hill out the back of Torphins. Passed a couple of embarressed looking drivers who were completely stuck. I waved politely as I pressed on then started regretting my decision. 20210208_095804.mp4

just wow! extremely deep and still moderate snow falling! main gritted routes completely snowed over, never seen it like this in norfolk!

The good lady is going to have an interesting morning clearing her car! Almost stopped now, eyes to the estuary!

Amazing snow here, just gone off but hard to remember seeing such intensity. Covered over a well gritted busy road in a couple of minutes. You really do have to wonder though - how is snow this intense alone, in central Scotland, not grounds for an amber warning tonight? I take the point about lockdown certainly but still... Anyway I'll go back to enjoying it after the wee rant VID_20210208_190538.mp4

Wee update from sunny Kelty. Road covered in less than 5 mins.

Mostly sunny and cold here with a maximum of -0.5c . Drying up process in full swing with any overnight dusting disappearing in the cold wind Fine day for outside work pruning bushes and trees. Showers trundling along the southern sideof the Firth all day and going ashore on the northernside of the Firth Photo of one from this morning and one this afternoon in the setting sun. Started off at -3c this morning and now back to -2c

Not so fast! That's a tasty GEFS mean chart for next Tuesday. Cold draw from the ESE, Atlantic moving closer. Be disappointed in the SW if a snow incident didn't come from this ECM ensemble mean wasn't really that far away this morning Two of the three clusters this morning weren't too far removed from the GEFS mean at this timeframe: It's far from over at the weekend. Might be, but I think odds still favour a continuation into early next week.

i do have to chuckle sometimes. Some points to remember Guys. 1.its the gfs with its known biases. 2 Any nationwide breakdown it shows is way past 144 3 Past 144 Its totally out of line with the latest meto update. 4. Its the gfs 5 Its the gfs 6 Its the gfs 7 Its the gfs 8 Its the gfs 9 Its the gfs 10.Its the gfs

Waiting for the AA this morning

We're starting to see the southward shift on the convergence zone on the radar. Probably expect it to end up over the Forth (although with the northern end still North of the Tay just about) by 5pm based on the models and the radar, although the heaviest and most persistent stuff will arrive tomorrow morning.

A view from the 500 anomaly perspective! Mon 8 th Feb Ec-gfs and both continue with the closed ridge over, or rather ne of the uk from 24 hours ago, the rest of the charts also pretty similar, the other main feature being the quite strong w’ly beneath the main trough s of Greenland; the main flow being beneath the uk area ridge into s’ern Europe. So the closed ridge between Norway and ne uk is really a major feature for the uk weather. Noaa 6-10 and its main feature in the uk area is, similar to ec-gfs,, the marked ridging in a similar area (not closed), and the strong w’ly flow beneath the rather unusual shaped main trough of several days now, little sign of any marked flow into Europe and a trough well east over same. In the far w the Aleutian closed centre and some indication of ridging e of this remain. The 8-14 ‘loses’ the ridge in the far w but looks quite similar for the rest east of this into Europe. The weather pattern would seem to remain, a fairly dry cold spell 6-14 days with ocnl attempts at milder incursions from the atlantic w or sw of the uk? The ridge looks like being in a similar position through this forecast period. A quick look at the two ECMWF outputs to see if they suggest any major difference in the 6-14 day period. The 500 chart shows the marked ridge as above but flattens it out as the upper trough is pushed east, and by 18 th, 10 days ahead, the trough is north of the Black Sea with another ridge developed just ne of the uk and the main atlantic flow staying west of the uk. The surface feature near the uk, remains the deep low in the atlantic and the high from Scandinavia into Europe; 850 mb values are shown as just a little either side of zero tending to lower late in the period to just below zero. The coloured charts show the pattern we have now with quite low temperatures slowly easing up 120-144 hours to move the coldest air roughly n-s down the far e of the country as the 850 winds veer from ese to more s’ly. The rest of the period to 240 hours shows a slight too-ing and froing of the colder air but no major change overall. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV These are ECMWF 500 and surface charts on this link http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif and another link into ECMWF charts http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/