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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some interesting discussion if the snow goggle biases were put away for a moment. This winter has seen a much greater disconnect of the atmosphere to the La Nina base state than anticipated. Intense seasonal bias confirmation processes customarily disguise this, but if one is prepared to stay detached from that, it has been something of a surprise to the neutral diagnostic elements enthusiast. What is meant by this disconnect? In simplest terms, much greater poleward rossby wave propagation has taken place than under a more 'connected' and stable w/QBO La Nina low angular momentum regime in early winter would usually provide. The autumn itself, heading into the first few weeks of winter, saw (overall) a much more typical EL Nino type presentation, with a downstream configuration that until the festive period did not, mostly apart from a brief period, feature the expected sub tropical Atlantic ridging and instead a configuration of warm air advection processes c/o an amplified Atlantic trough and downstream European ridging. This alignment ultimately provided the feedback catalyst to assist the wave breaking that has instigated instability of the polar field, albeit reversal of zonal winds are restricted closer to 10mb level. Interestingly, global relative angular momentum has been slowly falling since the festive period and continuing into the first days of January. The Global Wind Oscillation, a phase plot depiction of wind-flow inertia between the tropics and extra tropics has slowly slipped towards the La Nina attractor phases - reflecting greater harmony with the ocean base state. The effects of falling momentum are to switch greater inertia into the polar jet from upstream. The initial manifestation of this c/o the weakness across the polar field has been for the usual feed of this inertia to proceed eastwards closer between 50 and 60N to be somewhat roadblocked, and instead looped around the pole and create the blocking structures close by to the NNE and linked to the amplification of the more Nina-esque Atlantic ridge. However, the difficulty comes with how these blocking structures respond to continued displacement/split processes within the polar field at the same time as angular momentum continues to fall ( *in the shorter term absence of any westerly inertia supplied by tropical forcing) and much more closely match the underlying base state. This is where the post under reply holds the interest I was mentioning at the beginning and should be treated with better respect It is perfectly conceivable, at least for a time, for polar jet energy to make greater inroads eastwards at mid latitudes, as the polar field continues to re-organise and as the period of time approaches where zonal winds, at least temporarily, are increased within the lower stratosphere and troposphere boundary. Not to any great levels by any means, as the overall structures continue to look weak and unstable-but enough to allow a more westerly induced pattern to prevail, at least for a time, with a more traditional Nina-esque Atlantic ridge centred close to the west or south west and ebbing and flowing within the bandwidth of displaced vortexing to the NE. *The further wildcard is intraseasonal MJO forcing. In keeping with w/BQO Nina-esque regimes, and linked to known periodicity timelines for high frequency activity - it is worth watching out for signs of an eastward convective parcel progression attempting to negotiate the Pacific later in January or possibly into February. A further variable that could see a sudden and quite dramatic surge in atmospheric angular momentum, tipping the resultant synoptic patterns even more their head. Impossible obviously to know where and when these may set up hemispherically at this stage - but high impact synoptics are conceivable with very large temperature boundaries across the mid latitudes. That is all for another time. Perhaps. Closer to home, putting preference biases completely aside, whatever they maybe - from a neutral meteorological point of view its a very tricky time for numerical modelling ahead which encompasses the ensemble suites and representative upper air anomaly charts . The overriding diagnostic (GWO tropical>extra tropical momentum relationship vs a very disjointed polar field) susceptible to highly erratic global wind-flow patterns at the tropopause boundaries and creating precipitous jumps in synoptic patterns, at mid latitude,... in either direction. Falling momentum and weak high frequency MJO activity for the foreseeable future (* above caveat aside ) does weight probabilities towards a more typical sub tropical regime and polar jet flow arcing around this. At the same time and as can be seen, there are very hard to keep tabs of pockets of weak inertia popping op at relatively short notice closer to 60N which quite easily could stall westerly inertia and create subtle eddies within the jet which build very weak 'cold' ridges and derail the movement of troughs from west to east and restrict warm air advection At present, no outcome is to be discounted or dismissed out of hand, and any discussion should be unclouded by bias preferences and be open minded to the even greater than usual uncertainties. That is not sitting on the fence - its honest objectivity in the face of highly sensitive factors that require a watching brief ,rather than any impetuous call for the sake of wanting to appear confident in appealing to a specific popular outcomes.73 points
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LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. Oh,..... and I forecast the SSW before him and got the date closer. So do a bit of research first, thank you.60 points
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I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect. I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum. Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. Well done!53 points
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Give over IDO. This is just as much a waste of time as the 'Phantom random block' last night. Anyone with the first clue on Met office updates - should know to take absolutely everything with a truck load of salt. They change on a daily basis and represent the changes amongst model out put each and every day. If they had been correct, this winter would have been extraordinarily mild and weather with a raging Vortex over Greenland that hadn't moved. Nonsense. Getting hung up on these from day to day is the exact reason why this thread descends into chaos every time a cold spell doesn't go as it might do. I admire how you have changed your posts in recent years to include little rhetorical questions that hint at positivity, but there's those of us that have been here long enough to know your tone, style and overall hopes for winter. The best subtle troll there is on the internet, but that won't ever change. Back to the ignore list.30 points
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Pub run OP FI heading toward the Holy Grail ... but hits the buffers just short of all the UK A good way to finish off a few days of conflicting views, opitimism of the SSW downwelling to work in our favour against the SSW work against us with the rumours that the current SSW has hallmarks of past ones that induce SWlies. Will the La Nina / MJO override any attempt from downwelling to bring colder and blocked. Many questions that will be answered over coming days ... but we see hints and teases in the models of what may we maybe in store for ...27 points
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Things are gerrin exciting on those ens..that means I'm getting excited...I hope all of you are getting excited..we need to be excited about something. Over 1000 deaths today...gutting...all my heart felt sympathy to those involved. And just to finish hopefully another blow to the Vortex in the coming days with a secondary warming...Stay safe folks.27 points
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The post from Tamara is brilliant but I don’t like the way you’ve just casually dismissed the posts from everyone else. There have been many excellent contributions from a range of individuals recently about the way forward (not from me of course) and it’s unfair to accuse them of hopecasting just because you disagree with them. Also I think you’re confusing hopecasting with people just enjoying some of the model runs that deliver a colder set up as well.26 points
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Morning all . Have an update from the experts over here. Latest thoughts throw a bit of a conundrum as early as 144t. For example the charts from UKMO/GFS indicate less eastbound energy than the current ECM , so retention of the high influence close to the British Isles remains. Going forward in the period 6-10 day period, the team are interested in the eventual pressure pattern to evolve between Western Europe and Iceland/ Greenland. Still some expectancy of height rises to the NW of Britain in their view and they still think the development of a Scandinavian trough is likely to produce their coldest spell of the winter season so far. How about the UK prospects I ask ? Certainly on a knife edge 50/50. Possible that SE England can stay cold in to early next week. So the crux looking ahead is to watch how the energy field pans out NW of the British Isles back to the Arctic region. So I have a feeling that all still to play for. Good luck , from deep snow covered Austria !26 points
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So for the laymen, and as many have been suggesting .... Westerly regime next week SSW impacts still unclear. Going beyond next week chances for high pressure wedges setting up to the north or east pulling in a much colder flow. La Nina foundation conflicting SSW signals. as ever.....more runs needed22 points
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Cracking day here, max of 3c. Was passing by Loch Ettrick today (900 ft asl) and people were ice skating (see video below) Friends were climbing a hill nearby (i’ll leave details sketchy due to the covid Police), looked like it was a great day for them. Truly sublime conditions with minimal wind. Snow was apparently knee deep at the top. Exceptional 360 views at the summit as per video (so they tell/sent me) FullSizeRender.mov IMG_2520.MOV21 points
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I hope no one minds but I did a blog post on SSW very much related to model output, I’m not most knowledgable in this field but I think there are early promising signs. Sudden Stratospheric Warming declared (05/01/21) - what does this mean for our winter weather? WWW.THESNOWDREAMERWXBLOG.COM Yesterday, witnessed a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) it is an event in which westerly wind 60N at 10hPa roughly 30km high in atmosphere, above...20 points
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Evening all,and really late to the party with all the reading in here and in other threads and sites i am focusing on the day ten EPS for now as this shows some subtle shifts in the pattern that could favor us down the line i have done a complete Mozart of a Nick sussex special on this and here goes:- here is the EPS from this evening v's the 1st Jan(obviously diff dates) but i will explain below... 1,is the placement of the trop pv(red circle) and it is starting to move from its semi-permanent position over eastern Asia to central Asia and into Europe thanks to the west Russia hp cell that also has been a semi-permanent feature since late Autumn/early winter and not allowing any influence of the Siberian train backing W/SW into Europe (black arrow with green X) 2,as this hp cell retreats south over southern Asia it allows lower height's to flood in from Siberia west/southwest through central Asia and into Europe(green tick) 3,whilst maintaining height's over the north pole this is a good situation that we could be in with the blue line i have drawn from our meridian to the far northeast of Siberia and anything west of that clearly showing height's and the lack of westerly momentum in a zonal flow we are starting to see evidence of this in the models now over the past day or so with the reappearance of an Atlantic ridge and if we can get this ridge to punch further north then that Siberian train is waiting to pounce. you can see the change as regards to that ridge i have discussed above and in the latest cpc anomalies it removes this also in the extended 8-14 Later's .19 points
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You can literally see impact of SSW on day 5 modelling so no that’s not two weeks away, what’s happening the vortex is being ejected to Eurasia but this time a part of it is going to NE Europe, there’s a reason MetO are talking about very cold air in Scandinavia. Displacement allows an Arctic high to form further displacing bitterly cold air south, this movement gives potential for Atlantic/Greenland blocking. If the stars align with blocking we could see this bitterly cold air come our way it’s not remotely difficult to envisage. Pete’s chart has a very post SSW look very cold air draining into mid latitudes.18 points
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Unfortunately yeah, it does seem to be relatively pronounced: And (I think not helped by the wind direction being from nearer the coast) having an impact at lower levels too: Seems likely that it'll take a bit longer to be squeezed out from the central belt, one of the times the topography helps us as far as limiting the impact of warm sectors arriving from the north: and at upper levels it seems to be a bit further west and closer to this secondary shortwave feature in the North Channel (seems a relatively common theme recently!): and squeezed out by the approaching northerly air too. The 950hPa temperatures seem ok for the central and southern part of Scotland, allowing for the fact it's a bit higher up than last time given the relatively high pressure, but with a chance of sleetiness or freezing rain the closer you are to the coast or further north before the northerly sets in properly: Even then I think that is more likely to follow behind the precipitation, so areas in the yellow may still see it mostly as snow with some backedge sleet or more dreaded freezing rain (I do fancy my chances more with being in Coatbridge though, I have to say). I think BFT is right though - the front could well hang about a bit longer than expected and it does have a similar look to that 6th December 2010 snowfall, which had a similarly modest look about it to the Met Office (I remember a good discussion on here that the 18Z looked quite tasty the night before but still not enough to merit more than a yellow morning until the M80 was almost shut, but I digress!). The uppers were certainly nothing special then, either: I reckon it's unlikely to quite be on that scale, but probably more the intensity rather than the marginality that's going to be the issue in terms of getting a proper dumping - the pressure/geopotential is quite a bit higher in our case and the feature is a little less pronounced: Anyway happy lamp post watching! I suspect we may be back at it after this sooner than we think, once the models finally figure out how to handle the strat warming (just the pub run but the range of possibilities is very high still even for next week):17 points
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Yeah it's been quite the view south towards the Pentlands and Southern Uplands today. Low cloud just sitting there between Edinburgh and Peebles: ....and with Tinto poking through: Sunshine all the way here today: ....and we went below freezing an hour ago, which is quite unusual for up here as we don't usually go subzero until the early hours of the morning. As others have said, when it's calm and still and cold and crunchy, oh you've gotta love it!17 points
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It was no more or less likely than the 18z GFS showing a Bartlett at T360, I'm sure you'd have pointed that out to us in a tone that wouldn't have been so 'Phantom'. That met update changes for Colder and Milder basically every single day - I'm sure you won't post an update that references potential of colder weather will you? In fact, I don't think I've seen you reference or post it even once....of course when the outlook starts looking milder you are the very first person to drive it down throats on here, normally using the GFS late in FI that is notorious for over doing the climatological norm the second it hasn't got a clue. Backtracking for what? People saying what MIGHT, COULD or CAN happen in the aftermath of an SSW? Oh right, well let me tell you - you MIGHT win the lottery if you do it this week? If it doesn't win then I can only assume you will be calling my 'backtrack' after that? Give up the act, you are the same and have never changed over the years. Only your adjusted wording in recent years has kept you under the radar (or the ignore list) from the trolling. You disappear during cold spells, or when Cold and snow is forecast within a few days. Then re-appear the second there's a +360 hour zonal chart showing on the 18Z GFS to let us know about. Like I say, there's those of us who have been here long enough to know you and those who are relatively new that probably won't pick up on your posting style who are likely to be influenced by your OTT use of the GFS at stupid timescales and near incessant tracking of milder/Atlantic conditions to build an agenda suited by your preferences - IE, an Atlantic driven, Bartlett style mild winter.17 points
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Morning all Lowest temperature recorded is -12.2C at Loch Glascarnoch - coldest night/morning of Winter so far. (No confirmation from Met Office yet) Very cold out there for many of us! Looking at tonight into Thursday morning... Met Office/UKV 18:00 21:00 Thursday 00:00 03:00 06:00 Dusting for many of us up to that stage - slight to moderate accumulations for anyone who gets under the heavier stuff. It does all look for the most part...light precipitation but at least almost all the snow parameters scream snowfall at the moment! Thursday night into Friday morning these charts have been consistent for days now with regards to heavy snow showers for parts of the NW/N/NE (isolated further South) - they have upped the ante this morning. Thursday 21:00 Friday 02:00 850HPA temperatures of -9/-10/-11 06:00 Predicted temperature snapshot for 06:00 (wee bit of purple shading again there! -14C possible) All the above charts subject to change/timing of course - plenty of wintry/snowy potential over the next couple of days! Good luck everyone!17 points
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That’s a very generous post PW - thank you. I’m still horrendously busy (started new job this week) and my lack of posting is not therefore because I’ve crawled into a hole in disappointment. I’ll have more time at the weekend to post again, and see what can be gleaned. And always positive....! The short analysis at the moment is that the displacement gave us a less good outcome short term than we hoped, (snow hopers that is) and as has been pointed out by others we have falling AAM at the moment now and the GWO is in retreat. At moments like this I tend to wonder which is chicken and which is egg - but whatever the truth of the relationship between the tropics and the poles both have conspired to suppress the amplification that looked likely to continue at one stage. That 18z run of not too many days ago was a corker. Where next is hard to say. The vortex has been hammered, but as Amy Butler (Strat Goddess) has pointed out - it has not been shredded. Our best case outcomes I always felt depended on a proper shredding - yet this story is far from over. We’ve had more forcing from the Ural High and Aleutian Low combo, and warming impacts are not done. Things are finely balanced, and while I’ve not had time to read the threads this week I can imagine there has been some gnashing of teeth, a bit of “I told you so” and a range of comments in between - and I genuinely think the outlook is up for grabs. I see no swift path back to zonal this month, I see distinct potential for downwelling impacts to override any flatter trop signal, there may even be a tropical signal for high lat blocking to emerge once again in Feb.... and yet I also see a path that could lead to more disappointment. Snow lovers in the U.K. are long suffering folk and due far more sympathy than those who find the U.K. summer uninspiring (always seems dry, hot and sunny to me but then I’m usually counting down the days to a cooler autumn!) and if we don’t manage at least one solid cold blast from this winter I think we will have been very unfortunate given the developments that we got in the build up to Xmas, developments that indeed were spotted by amateurs in the face of seasonal model zonality. Holding pattern for now. Need to watch and wait particularly for damage to the vortex to become clear. We have had far worse winters that is for sure, and plenty of interest left in this one. We can never forget what happened in 2017/18 and indeed in our modern climate it might be worth remembering that our 2 most recent cold spells of note have occurred in March. And one year, surely before too many more pass, we must see a cold spell in February again. Back in the heady days of pre-CC Britain February often delivered the best snowfall.16 points
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I'm sure we have done this enough now. This is the model thread - not the discuss the daily Met Office update thread. Secondly, again - these updates change every single day and other than the odd generic theme are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard on the surface of the sun. It works both ways, for cold and mild. They reflect the nature of the days model output and normal climatological bias. They are also extra 'useless' in periods where the weather is volatile.16 points
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Ahh, good old Yakutsk. I won a famous battle there once with a double six.16 points
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Stunning day, if only you could get more days of skies like this... Overnight low of -3.2c, high today of 0.8c at lunchtime; now -1.7c. Calm conditions. Going forward, I suspect I will remember this cold period for the lack of snow and the treacherous ice conditions. See its all kicking off over the pond around the Capitol building, at the ready - definitely a hollywood film in the making.15 points
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Time to stop sniping at members now, and get back to model discussion. If anyone is not happy about a post, use the report button and do not reply to it. It creates more replies and derails the thread. Thanks.15 points
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-10c to start here, currently -9.6c, low lying mist and a pink tinge on those plastered hill tops for a while earlier, very nice work from Mother Nature’s set design team15 points
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Evening all First, thanks to everyone who enjoys my nightly ramblings on the medium to long term model output. I try to keep it light-headed and sometimes light-headed and while I enjoy snow, cold is where I'm at but when you see the writing on the wall for a cold spell, it merely starts the countdown to the next chase. Milder weather looks likely after the weekend and into next week but with interesting developments in the stratosphere could this be a blip before the cold returns? My money (and very nice money it is too) has been on an anticyclonic evolution but we need the HP somewhere interesting to draw in the frigid air rather than the benign and dull westerlies. The route to very cold starts from very mild in my experience. 12Z GEM: T+120 takes us to Monday next week and the milder air is with us with a long ridge of HP from east of the Azores to south-western parts of the British isles. The LP which develops over Iceland is over Scandinavia delivering plenty of winter for them but the cold PM air flow looks like it will miss us and we have a benign drift from the WSW with a shallow but extensive Atlantic trough to the west and south west. A shallow LP crosses the British isles but by T+180 there are signs of amplification with the Atlantic LP deepening and going nowhere allowing heights to rise in front of it meaning the HP over the north-west of Iberia ridging north over the British isles to weak heights forming to the north-east of Iceland. The mild or very mild regime very much in charge at this time. Not much changes from there - the mild anticyclonic regime strengthen its grip with the HP moving slowly north and by T+240 extending a ridge to Iceland. A small LP extends east, then south-east into the northern North Sea and Scandinavia. Mild or very mild air (850s of +12) is briefly displaced from the north-west but any frigid air is well to the east at this time. 12Z GFS OP - a mild or very mild outlook from GEM which was the most bullish of the models last evening regarding the extent of the mild regime. On then to the Americans and the GFS OP - at T+120 some subtle differences from the GEM. The Atlantic is closer with a more progressive profile and the HP ridge weaker with the core further south. Cold air persists over southern England while milder air is spilling in from the west and north west. The divergence intensifies as you might expect as we move on to T+180 - the HP is over or just to the south of the British isles with a slack or calm flow for many and a residual trough over Norway. As we often see in these evolutions, it's colder in the south closest to the residual cold continental air and milder in the north and west. From there, the evolution is fascinating as the HP tries to build north to meet heights coming from the Pole - one lobe of LP gets through before, by T+240, the gap is closed. The air mass over the British Isles cools slightly with positive uppers confined to the far south-west. 12Z GFS Parallel - GFS OP very different to GEM and intriguing to say the least - I'll be fascinated to see where it goes further into FI. As for Parallel, it's also different as early as T+120 with the Atlantic trough phasing with the trough which is still over the Norwegian coast. The HP sends a weak ridge from the Azores over southern Britain. Still some -4 uppers over southern Britain at this time but it's getting a little milder further north. By T+180 it's looking like a complex and messy evolution. The HP is trying to build north through the British Isles while the Atlantic LP systems are going nowhere slowly far to the west and the trough remains over Scandinavia. By this time, colder air is restricted to northern and north-eastern parts of the British isles with milder air further south and west. The complexity continues from T+180 with heights to the far north becoming more evident pushing the trough to the south and aligning it negatively as the HP recedes so a more unsettled evolution by T+240. Cooler air spilling east with frigid air (-20 uppers) over Finland. 12Z ECM - again, another very different evolution with the whole evening screaming confusion and uncertainty even as early as T+120. Once again, T+120 looks different - the Scandinavian LP is further south and close to the south western coast of Norway with a weak ridge extending south from Greenland. Mild W'ly winds over most of the British Isles with the HP centred west of Biscay. Moving on and while t looks briefly as though the Atlantic will take charge, by T+192, the HP is over Iberia and heights remain to the north with a ridge from the HP. It's generally mild over the British Isles at this time with a feed of cooler air into the north-west. By T+240, however, the Atlantic re-asserts with the trough aligned positively and a long-fetch SW'ly air flow. Milder air hasn't quite arrived but is approaching. A disappointing end to the ECM but on a night of confusion in the models should I be surprised it's a case of "safety first"? Looking further ahead and with even more buckets of salt than usual, the T+312 and T+384 charts from the GFS OP and Parallel runs respectively. As alike as two dissimilar things in a pod - one is mild and the other isn't. Looking elsewhere, 12Z Control is completely different, mild for the most part but at the end of FI turning colder and stormy from the north with some very cold air moving in. On to the 10 HPA charts and Control has another strong warming after mid month which further weakens the stratosphere. The FI warming is even more marked on the OP run but is much more muted on the Parallel. Conclusion: There was a popular series on Radio4 called "I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue" and that's where I am tonight. GEM is bullish about a mild evolution but GFS much less so and ECM somewhere in the middle. FI is probably T+96 onwards but a couple of thoughts. The trend is for heights to try to push north from Iberia to link with heights coming south from the Pole. For now, the Atlantic seems to have too much energy to make it happen but the Atlantic is sluggish and propping up all this is both the weak PV and the frigid air to the east which is acting as a block in its own right. For now, the Scandinavian trough holds sway but it's possible we could see heights develop in time which would be fascinating. Those who argue the PV split/displacement is causing issues with the modelling have a point and it's difficult to be definite about the medium to longer term evolution tonight.14 points
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What a cracking day; sun's out, no cloud, no wind, snow is still on the grass and paths, and it's cold and clear. Just what I want from winter. Temperature 2.1deg.C up from -5.0deg.C at 07:38, humidity 88%, wind 0 to 2mph south-southeasterly, pressure 1026.1hPa falling slowly, no rain/snow in the last 24 hours and the dew point is at 0deg.C.14 points
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Gone from a braw -0.5C and blue skies with bright crisp sunshine earlier to thick fog and -1.3C. The fog is merging with the snow cover to produce whiteout of all views. QuIte like that.14 points
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@Mr Frost I’m sticking with my pal wrf nmm 2km and @101_North bit different to what I’m going for front should be arriving in NW tonight say around 6pm, frosty conditions ahead of it and nice dewpoints even as front approaches the areas I mention dewpoints forecast to be 0 to -1, the front will gradually move SE through tonight. It continues the journey into tomorrow morning I am going for a fair amount of hours of snow for quite a few of us, it could be the persistent lighter stuff but given the frosty ground I’m thinking it will stick fast and persistent light snow can accumulate as fast as a short spell of heavy snow talking of which there looks to be an increase in intensity within the front but this could be over a wide area or maybe a thinner heavy band but wherever gets that will likely add a few cms on, totals have been consistent with 4-5 cm for some central and eastern areas, Fife then maybe a rough line from Stirling - Livingston are my favoured areas to be in with best shout of those higher totals but many should get a nice covering and I’m making a big call here @Hawesy will see snow typical I type all that out and the latest run shows everything slightly less intense well what I describe had been consistently shown so I will stick with it and update if the later runs show any drastic changes but the radar will always show things better previous runs and why I typed all that latest run can still see that band of higher amounts into Fife Note this is current run, previous runs were slightly different still generally in line with what I said14 points
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-6°C here but - 11°C 25 miles NW of here at Loch Glascarnoch. Chilly!14 points
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Some promising trends today. 2 main features stand out, the development of a UK high trying to ridge North and the building deep cold pool to our ne. It looks like this may become the general holding pattern until the downwelling of the SSW hits the 500 pattern. Good signs that modelling is showing the re emergence of ridging in the Atlantic flow. The building Scandinavian trough looks really juicy for later too. I think its just a little early to expect anything more but allowing for the lag effect it shouldn't be too long before we see further changes as we get more pronounced heights into the pole.13 points
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Haven't even made it subzero here yet. 0.7C That said, I've had more air frosts here since Christmas Day than I had in the whole of last winter !!13 points
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