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3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a few new ones. We know the deal, we have a wonderful looking Northern Hemisphere (the likes of which do not come along very often), we are on the verge of a nailed on SSW, and most people on here fully understand how the charts struggle with these non-norm set ups. It is indeed all about the big picture. Even if this does end up being a memorable cold and snowy winter, it won’t have been without less cold periods, even the greatest winters endured those, to one degree or another. And even if the Euros are correct this morning, and yes, they could well be, (although personally I’m far from convinced they are) the best potential is still yet to come. By all means, we can all come back in April and have a wash down autopsy, but until the winter is over and whilst this incredible potential persists, I’m not going to be dragged down and have this time ruined.

It's painful reading this place it really is, going from absolute joy to dispair every 12 hours like watching a 2 year old cry when you take a toy off him... Do you not think the fact only last night the gfs was probably the snowiest run iv ever saw, and now this mornings charts show milder Atlantic based air just tells you the volatility of the models as they get to grips with what's happening above,, not to mention how models find it nutoriously difficult modelling a break down? We have the next 5 days of cold easterly winds with snow chances all wk, from later today the air becomes more conducive for snow with the a slightly less cold pocket of 850's over us today with higher thickness values and due points to go with it, Many midlanders saw heavy snow yesterday on and off all day, with wintry weather continuing all wk nationwide,, I ask as grown adults, hold yourself together lol! It's the weather, not an illness, thank goodness, be excited, after all, we've been thrown a double 6 this year, beleive me, synoptically the best set up since 2010 all day long, just because the charts throw something very different to us, sit back and look for trends, keep a cool head, listen to the experts, I can't remember in the last wk when the 0z threw a good run out ?only yesterday I was reading people placing there bets on a better evening set!

For me, I am not too concerned about the change in model direction over the last 24 hours. I suspect it is SSW related. Also I think it is highly likely to be temporary. If you remember yesterday, I demonstrated that there was a minimal push of westerly winds propagating down prior to the negative u winds associated with the SSW. Well, I think the models may have underestimated this, as can be seen from the ECM u wind forecast. It appears that there is a greater push of westerlies into the trop. However, this appears temporary, before negative u winds are back in control. So, it won’t be long before the roller coaster changes direction again.

Very little energy upstream at day 7 . There’s a gap to the nw by day 8 which could easily see something more interesting develop . Not convinced any less cold interlude will be around for too long .

much improved ECM this eve! Colder as well

If this is ECM attempt at a resurgent Atlantic it’s thankfully a complete failure ! Very little going on upstream and a bit more amplification which is possible could see a quite different picture downstream . It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to imagine how the pattern could evolve more favourably from day 7.

An original lurker here, but felt I must comment on some of the things being said today. Trying to make blunt statements on the basis of current outputs is rediculous. Yes I know it's the purpose of this forum but please accept the level of disarray being shown over the last few days. Having followed weather charts long before most of you were born it is pretty rare that they flip flop to this extent so quickly. I am well old enough to remember the winter of 1963. Please don't make comparisons from anything we have seen so far. Not naming anyone but to say there were milder spells and flooding even during that spell is simply wrong. Look at the records I was there until the thaw finally came the vast percentage of England at least was frigid. Obviously there was not the level of computing available then so difficult chocolate actual forecasting. But one thing was clear. No met forecaster had predicted what was to come more than 48/72 hours beforehand. Trawl each output as,you will, there is plenty of time for this winter to produce. Back to my shell now

I do chuckle when I see comments like "the models haven't got a clue" or "they haven't factored in the SSW yet". They do and they have.... They are computer algorithms fed with a vast amount of information regarding current atmospheric conditions. The fact they vary so wildly right now, demonstrates the fact that these conditions are very volatile due to the fact we have an SSW happening at this moment and subject to change at very short notice, hence the multitude of possible outcomes we are seeing. They are also fed this information at different times. So what data one model is given, may have changed by the time another is given its input. So, what the models are showing us is that the weather itself is currently highly unpredictable.... Whatever happens, just watch and enjoy the show....

If you think UKMO/ECM leads the way, “like” this... if you think GFS leads the way, “thanks” this... Somewhere in between the two? “Happy new year” this... im not sure polls are allowed so apologies if they’re not!!! But it would nice to see people’s thoughts on going forward with out the usual sniping and tearing down at others suggestion.. In my opinion the models have not got a clue what’s going on and the volatility is only like to increase!! before it decreases!! around T120+ all part of the fun tho isn’t it?? Oh and happy new year!!

A really good run to watch the impact of that monster Aleutian low and pacific jet. Starts here - with the north pacific on steroids and then the residual energy of that surge arrives just off Newfoundland 192h later This is what forces enough energy into a wave break to see off the slight westerly tendency arcing into the troposphere as the SSW develops, and knocks it out the way. That Greenland wave break then controls the trough, keeping it just where we want it. Perfect end product. Wont be the same next run - how this Pacific Strike is modelled and develops will vary enormously - but in general we should get a gradual resolution towards atlantic heights holding on to the whip hand. Powder puff atlantic westerlies - how often have we been able to say that in recent years? Meanwhile the trends for backing significant cold west from that bitterly cold pool over Asia are growing. Movement clear across all modelling. Timescale obviously a bit uncertain here because we are dealing with an SSW and that, by definition, means a tough timing call - but I'm thinking the supercomputer at Exeter is picking up on something. I'm beginning to hear more and more media broadcasts ending with phrases involving the S word....and with "rain, sleet and...." not included. It's only Jan 2nd. I've followed the weather in detail for about 10 years, watched it with a lack of real knowledge for 10 years before that, and been fascinated with it since a child. I've looked at many an archive and watched spells come and go. I thought 2018 was pretty awesome...but by then it was March! Jan 2nd... and we have a long range cold signal slowly building and building and an 8 week timeline to play with. I keep having to pinch myself.

I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me. Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.

I wanted to post the clusters in full tonight because I think it explains something about the uncertainty and how it will be resolved. T72-96 5 clusters: All look the same but subtle differences even at this time, most easily detected on the T96. T120-T168 5 clusters: All of them have similarly strong northern blocking it just affects us in different ways. T192-T240 6 clusters: All over the place, but a place that again has strong northern blocking, no Atlantic. Finally, T264-T360: Uncertainty is resolved -a bit 2/3 Greenland block, 1/3 heading for Scandi block...what’s not to like...

Evening all, ok the models show the collapse of the Greenland Ridge this week. However, most of this week will be cold out towards the weekend especially in SE Britain, The chart below from UKMO features the Greenland Sea trough/low in formation at 144t and the positioning of a new feature the Iberian Low. Both yet to be determined in its final movements and crucial to the longer term outlook. Reasons yet to be optimistic for many of us cold lovers. The route to mild far from nailed based on the shorter term charts. C

Well on looking out of the bedroom window this morning my thoughts were "oh well, nothing overnight" as it didn't look any different, just more frozen. On going outside though to take the dog a walk it was obvious we'd had sleet or wet snow, as yet again the driveway and car were covered in a sheet of ice. On getting half way up the hill, just 5mins drive and 100m higher, it was quite different. I suspect a lot of the sleety stuff we had yesterday and overnight was firmly snow up there. Had quite a wonderful walk in the sunshine, and the dog had a riot. Sorry @Mair Snaw, if it wasn't for Covid you could have visited for a 'fix'. Or given that everyone else seems to be doing it, just jump in the car, you will still be in Aberdeenshire and there must be plenty of snowy higher areas within an hours drive.

A bit of bedtime reading for everyone. Written by Simon Lee, Jason Furtado, et al. Abrupt Stratospheric Vortex Weakening Associated With North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) of 12 February 2018 was not forecast by any extended-range model beyond 12 days. From early February, all forecast models that comprise the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database abruptly transitioned from indicating a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to a high likelihood of a major SSW. We demonstrate that this forecast evolution was associated with the track and intensity of a cyclone in the northeast Atlantic, with an associated anticyclonic Rossby wave break, which was not well forecast.

Agree, it does appear the models are struggling with the fast flow out of the Pacific into N America - which is characterised by short-wave lengths over USA with numerous shortwaves moving east in split southern and northern streams which merge off the east coast. How these shortwaves interact when they arrive towards the Atlantic against a big block maybe causing some model uncertainty over the NW Atlantic sector. Add to this what appears to be too much volatility over the arctic between models and run-to-run of each model, hard to call any model correct past days 5-6.

Having watched the GFS / UKMO for about 20 years now its clear the amount of times GFS > UKMO / ECM is low. > You know when its going to be wrong, when it throws out radical changes from run to run scattering lows everywhere. > Equally the only time GFS wins is when theres been atlantic pressure & the model runs with metronomic consistency. Looking at the ECM its been pretty rough lately, the modelling of the Easterly was fine UKMO was good. So its really a straight out battle. After another consistent 06Z run which is infact a bit more amplified. I make the GFS favourite. just about 60-70%. S

Poor GFS tonight GFSP nothing to write home about Nothing to see here - just standard UK winter fayre

Disrespectful and sniping posts have been deleted. Keep it friendly and on-topic please or your post will disappear. Thank you.

Not too sure we should over worry beyond the Atlantic ridging just out west which seems in general agreement with the UKMO byT144hrs.I am sure there's more to come with the upstream adjustments. The main thing is this is not the usual high being flattened by a rampant northern jet.Low pressure is retained to the south and on this we are still in the colder air. Looking a the Polar pattern we can see the main part of the pv moving across towards the Siberian side so we would expect some,hopefully,temporary flattening of the Atlantic flow.

I finally found a -10! If anyone is still interested in the initial Easterly haha.

Gotta say - for once JUST ONCE I think most of us would like ECM and UKMO to be wrong. GFS this at 144 v ECM for the same Chalk and cheese. It's all about amplification accuracy upstream - nothing else matters really here. Models have struggled with this during the current spell. I'm off to buy an American flag.......

Great summary there mate - absolutely spot on. Basically Monday lunchtime through to Wednesday morning looks good for sleet/snow showers on and off (add in overnight into tomorrow morning for rain/sleet/graupel) - rainfall in the earlier period of this but 850HPA temperatures of -8 (-9 isn’t far away) start appearing for Eastern Scotland through Monday evening well into Tuesday (see chart below for example...-8 also makes it through to Central parts before this timeframe) - as we all know many more snow parameters to take into consideration...it is a start though! (Higher ground the better of course) Monday to Friday is cold throughout - wouldn’t look much further than that at the moment as the models/charts look a bit messy. Latest UKV predicted temperature snapshots for the week ahead - as ever subject to change. Monday 12:00 Tuesday 12:00 Wednesday 12:00 Thursday 12:00 Friday could be the coldest day of the week! 03:00 you can see those really cold 850HPA temperatures (-11) arriving from the N/NNE alongside snow showers. 12:00 temperature Impressive/prolonged/below average cold spell we are currently in and it continues for the foreseeable.

Regardless of the output and some of you sniping at one another,which in fairness its the weather and certainly not worth losing your sense of perspectives over.With whats going on currently,let's stay friendly...we never know when we will be gone in this day and age...Models are gonna struggle with the bigger picture at this time frame,so much going on and a lot of changes will be coming up..But I tell you what...just look at the Vortex now! Its not going to take much to put it out of its misery for good..No complaints from me..but tbh...there never is... I love you all guys,let's all be cool

Pretty cloudscapes this afternoon in the East Neuk even if they were just rainbearing! Currently 2.7c here in Pittenweem.

I’ve numbered the features 1 to 4. You can see how the uncertainty re each feature evolves 1 is the initial drop of heights from the north which may well be a little further west than the mean and op show 2 is the Atlantic upper ridge whic may not quite be so intrusive as the mean shows 3 is the following drop of heights from the nw which could go anywhere but is certainly well within the envelope to drop across nw Europe as the upper ridge retracts 4 is the sceuro trough which is likely to maintain low heights to our east and southeast the mean (and op) cannot be discounted but the spreads show the uncertainty and where the clusters should be - I wonder if they concur ??

Lol. Good ole pub run delivering a straighter northerly and less of a collapsing ridge this is probably due to far stronger Iberian low

Mate you really must have had the blinkers on if you think the models are rarely wrong...or even a full blindfold on if you think they rarely backtrack..The forecast for the week ahead is remaining cold with wintry showers from the East.Nothing has changed in that respect.. what people are seeing,or weighing up,is how this SSW will affect the weather beyond the reliable time frames..No output is ever set in stone,and there are probably gonna be much ups and downs in the coming days...There is alot going on. Im still thinking the big output swings will start to appear towards later next week.. Edit..something a little positive..The vortex appears to have weakened another 10mph in the last 12 hours...latest from Marco P..

No - there are enough gefs members with Atlantic amplification in week 2 to make the mean upper ridge part of a still cold regime ....we would expect the pattern to be a little less progressive over the next few weeks so as long as maintain some amplification in the ensembles then we remain in the cold game ..... we may have lost a clean path to a v cold ongoing outlook but winter hasn’t gone away ..... what I will say is that the week 2 strat pattern from gfs op and gefs is very consistent to deliver the board pattern we saw on last nights 18z gfs of Asian trough towards sceuro and ridge in the Canada/greeny sector

MO Summary and overview Not sure why people were surprised by today's output, UKMO has been on this path for a while and I have discussed how the dangers of too much energy heading NE with the first low ad nauseam. On the flip side those who were borderline trolling with NIMBY posts are not proved correct either, it is a flip of coin and as often in the UK it is heads the Atlantic wins, tails the arctic loses. That said, assuming we don't get a surprise flip back and we can't get the trough to drop more effectively and keep the pattern backed West and more amplified it is not the end. We will remain cold at surface for a while with the chance of snow before milder air wins out and thereafter we will need to pick the meat out the ensuing synoptic stew. Given the background signals and Winter patterns thus far we could we be looking at days rather than weeks for blocking to reestablish and the chance of bring Arctic air back over us. Because there are so many moving parts, each reliant on the other for outcome, there is not too much point in going over all the possibilities and detail so for simplicity this is what to look for if we want cold. The further W we can get the Euro trough day 7/8/9, and the earlier we get that trough the further W it will be, the more amplified the pattern will remain, the more chance we have of retaining any surface cold through the transition and the better the chances of blocking reestablishing quickly. UKMO would probably drop the trough through Russia, ECM has it through Scandi and GFS generally a little further W than that and so respectively GFS best, ECM next and then the UKMO for cold fans. MY guess would be we won't be getting anything as bad as the UKMO and any breakdown will not see us in typical zonal westerly regime. Likewise I don't think we can maintain a snowy cold flow as with some previous GFs Operational runs. So a halfway house with perhaps some snow moving down from the N at first and then a slow thaw with temps staying cold at the surface and harsh frosts at night as high pressure establishes over the UK which would take us into mid month. (A real shame because this will prevent a deep trough pushing SW from the arctic into Scandi, a dream scenario which was quite possible if the Atlantic ridge had held and restrengthened instead of the pattern being forced SE . Thereafter we would hope to reamplify and get any block further North and favourably placed to bring Arctic air our way once more. So enjoy the next week (yes, we are in the middle of a cold spell which even if it breaks down is guaranteed another week!) of cold and snow chances and keep willing that trough to drop further W. Otherwise hope to keep the apttern as amplified as possible during the transition and look for signs renewed amplification in the days that follow.

So last post of me spamming the same story before the 12z as im currently dieing off with corona! Watch for this development (also covered by @Catacol further up the board That low on the 96 hour charts. Watch it from 72 to 96 You want it deeper and digger deeper into America. This kicks up a small surface ridge ahead of it on the American East Coast which pushes shortwave energy east to drop over us whilst leaving a vacuum for the north atlantic ridge to move into over Greenland See you all at 3:00pm!

GFS snowcover 120 as the first low tracks south

A few days ago we were looking at a warming trend from the 9th. Now it's the 12th. In a couple of days time I suspect it'll be the 15th. As the SSW begins to happen, models are going to struggle to resolve what happens next, the 18z tonight is an extreme example of that, I suspect we'll see some extreme mild options being thrown out too. The ensembles with their lower resolution are going to struggle even more. The ECM should have a better handle on things, sure there's a slight warming trend within the mean but look at the spread of solutions, there's quite a cold clustering there also. Worth noting the GFS isn't interested in moving the MJO eastwards where all other models do, it's likely wrong there, and that'll have implications on what it's predicting for our side of the hemisphere too. Steady as she goes.. I fully expect the "breakdown" to be pushed back again. And again.. and perhaps again. I try to keep things sensible when forecasting, if anything I'm overly cautious when it comes to jumping on board with cold patterns for the UK, but I'm fully on board with this one. In my opinion, the ensembles showing the warm up are likely wrong. It doesn't fit.

Is it poor run or a good run? Haven’t a clue after reading some of the comments, think I’ll have a look for myself from now on before looking on here lol

Was up on The Mount this afternoon and at 330m in the clouds it was definitely sleety: Beautiful looking towards the south end of the Pentlands (if you squint there probably 10-15 miles north) . And then looking south toward Biggar.

I know ( for a change ) its a slightly IMBY post but is 100% model related. The high res models now working on T48 & below- HIRLAM goes for 5-6cm over the hills in the SE - maybe low ground as well. Could be higher at the core of the streamer.

I try to stay away from the model thread. I am no expert in the models but I always find the Scottish thread the best for finding out what we have in store here. It’s great that we have some knowledgeable members who are in Scotland. They share their thoughts and forecasts in this thread for the members who don’t understand the models as much but have a big interest in the weather like myself

It is extremely frustrating to look at, it is bipolar in that thread. It doesn't matter how many times we have a SSW people still expect models to be absolute nailed on when in fact that is very rarely ever the case and even less so in a SSW. It is just full of I told you so, and mild zonal always wins comments. Well of course it will eventually as it is our default pattern, people become very argumentive over something which at the end of the day we have no control over it is baffling. It could be -10 outside and snow galore and we would still have folk complaining that it isn't lasting months. Sometimes you would think we live in Svalbard and not the UK with the type of comments in that thread. It is very rare to get seriously low uppers in the UK so if they always expect that then they are nearly always going to be disappointed With the look of the models a slight warm up of some degree looks likely, but with the troposphere and strat situation it will probably be short lived. We know how volatile models can be in this situation so expect a lot of changes in the near future. Definitely going to try and ignore the model thread for a while, not good for my health looking at the comments sometimes

I have been here for years now and never post. I am sure there is something brewing from the north to north east. SSW is going to filter into the models over the coming 72hours. Happy new year to you all.

The update from meto says becoming colder next week again so probably and hopefully this will be the start of something better

Had a nice walk today around one of the local reservoirs. Nice views towards Glasgow as the sunset. This wee robin stopped by so I could take his picture

I must apologise to many of you who regularly post on this forum. Until today, I have been thinking 'Why are all these people posting about 10 day forecasts as if the synoptics will bear any resemblance to these forecasts in 10 days time'. In fact , until today I would look at T+240 charts to find out what was NOT going to happen. How wrong I have been! And now all that has changed. In my tier 4 lockdown this morning I have done some verification from the Meteociel site. I chose the past 2 significant changes of types that involved cold weather over the UK. First the major development of the upper trough over W Europe on Dec26-Dec28. Best of the major models by far was the GFS OP. signalled at T+264 and nailed at T+240. second the ECMWF which suggested the change at T+240 but a bit too far east with that diving depression. Then good from T+216. but it threw a wobbly at T+192 Third the GFS para which was OK but not until T+216. Next event was the easterly which started today and will likely last a few days. best again by far was the GFS OP suggesting it at T+264, nailed at T+240, but it threw a wobbly at T+192, although it went off track at T+144 Second best was the GFS para, not too bad at T+216 and T+240, again it had a wobbly at T+192. Third best the ECMWF which was poor at T+216 and T+240, then good from T+192. I am having trouble uploading my working Word Doc table so the above summary will have to do. So finally I attach the latest 2 GFS OP (the best model?) forecasts at T+240 to perhaps see what the future holds. Yes,I know some runs are better than others and these may not verify etc etc. and it has bad runs I could go on and on. But I am now not as dismissive as I used to be. They both show a mid atlantic ridge with the northerly over the UK, OK one has a depression over us but the signal is clear, Cold.

Don’t give up guys, the GEFS 6z does redeem itself too a certain extent, even beyond mid month!..on the face of it, the mean May look crap, but look at the 2m temps..hmm?..not mild is it?...on a more serious note, the mods..I mean the models may be having a wobble with all the ssw in the headlines..perhaps, before you know it, there will be bitterly cold easterly winds, dry powder snow and max temps of minus 7 Celsius ...19F if I’m not much mistaken..hmmmmm!!!!

It better not be another wintry mix! Would be nice to have an all snow (fairly widespread) Scotland event. Have been keeping an eye on it the last couple of days. Few snapshots: Thursday 03:00 06:00 Interesting to see what becomes of all this on the day! Colder air/wintry showers then arrive as it clears through. 18:00 All ties in nicely with this! Back to the here and now and looking further West - risk of wintry/snow showers filtering through to the Glasgow, North and South Lanarkshire areas over the next forty eight hours. Wouldn’t be surprised if some of us get a wee surprise dusting at some point. I am enjoying the endless days of sunshine, few ice days and temperatures well below freezing overnight but it is getting a wee bit boring now - couple/few centimetres for low ground here would be lovely! Also noticed Glasgow Airport got down to -8c this morning. Not bad at all!

A colder set of ensembles. This time yesterday the mean (white line) was just above the average (white line) so they are heading in the right direction to avoid a milder spell mid month...

I'd say 2 things are problematic for all models at the moment - the same 2 things as previously flagged. Firstly that north pacific low with a record central pressure for that latitude - somewhere around 925mb....and what it is doing to the circulation. And secondly the very swift impacts of the SSW that are within sight today with a very swift deceleration of winds kicking off now. EC strat models this morning have once again upgraded the level of wave 2 forcing - this time at only 48 hours! - but at the same time the 150hp charts are showing a generally faster westerly circulation. The debate around the flush or no flush of westerly momentum down through the layers is bound to raise its head again. In short - very very dynamic processes in place right as I type. One tiny adjustment in such a dynamic process = large variation even at shortish time scales. If I had to take a guess I'd say the ECM/UKMO higher strat resolution is what is creating the shift, and on that fact alone they might come up trumps. But.....what about that N Pacific record breaker? Some believe GFS models this kind of development much better. 50/50. But for all those feeling glum the bigger picture needs to be held onto. If we get a topple I dont think it will be a long topple.

Just looking at the latest ensemble graphs from both suites and it's clear that a large divergence in the 500 hPa pressure trends show up from day 6.This uncertainty the result of upstream modeling of the jet differently- already touched on in earlier posts. Anyway the 2 pressure/thickness graphs below. Both operational runs are almost outliers for different reasons.As can be seen the ecm op going for much higher pressure the high toppling and flattening and the gfs op in favour of the trough dropping south. The ecm mean chart by day 8 is likely to be nearer the mark with a sort of half way house.The high staying just out west keeping us cold. I am sure there will be more surprises in the coming days as the models continue to move the furniture(500 hPa)pattern around. So yes some uncertainty for the way the NH pattern will develop in week 2 but I just keep reminding myself that zonal winds reduction and then reversal are starting above us.When they get down to the lower atmosphere we will start to see increasing Arctic blocking and the reversal of the pattern (east to west) and we all know what's waiting to our north east!

Oh, looky here... a potential snow fest , on or around Day 10! Well, blow me down with a feather, if Day 10 hasn't been 'nailed' ever since 2003! But, do I suspect that the SSW will deliver? Well, yes I do... But it'll do it when it's good and ready!

Morning all - hehe: we best hope that @Scott Ingham's belief that GFS models Greenland heights better than all other models is true. Very volatile situation at the moment - as the SSW kicks off tomorrow the upper vortex is shredded according to GFS at 72h Interesting watching to come....