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Showing content with the highest reputation on 16/12/20 in all areas

  1. Well that is just bloody outrageous, hello big freeze 2021 !!
    30 points
  2. Ladies and gentleman, let me introduce you the NASA model. This shows frequent snow showers coming from the North Sea on Christmas Day, along with decent, cold uppers. Oh, if it verified! 🤪
    29 points
  3. Oh dear ! The GFS upto its old tricks . Now it wants to drop the low se and go onto the next mystery tour with a tease from the ne . The good thing is that even with it relieving its youth at Woodstock and dropping loads of acid it still is struggling to find a mild solution !
    27 points
  4. No they don’t people aren’t stupid like you make out, and well if we didn’t talk about it what would be the point in this thread? What’s generated some excitement is a cold snap, nothing impressive, coinciding around Xmas this is why it has got more attention I think, rather sad I know but a small hope for something more substantial following on. People are realistic and realise what we want... is probably not what we’re going to get. To many this is a form of escapism and expectations are low. People may get excited at one model output but don’t interpret that as they expect it to happen, peo
    22 points
  5. It’s going to be tricky to plot a path for a wave breaking high - strat forecasts today would encourage me to go for a Greenland rather than Scandinavian ridge - but if this is the end product come the 29th I won’t be unhappy at all. Ultimately for me it’s an all in thing - a bit of frost and marginal conditions and a 2cm dusting is good but not the pot of gold. It will always be the true pot of gold = -10 uppers off the continent, Atlantic undercut or possibly -10 uppers from a sharp trough as per Dec 2010....and in the modern climate I really think we need substantial vortex disruption to ac
    22 points
  6. A long post coming up... lets have a look at the ecm and gfs 12z from day ten counting down the day six today i would say that this is remarkable consistency NH wise from day ten to six now to some other stuff... the gefs ens look cold going into the festive period with a flat line just hovering or near to the -5 isotherm and the mean(red line) not far off now from the ens in that respect,can we squeeze that little bit more out of them nearer the time,it is certainly possible and i think it is worth a punt on the big day......up north,
    21 points
  7. Looks like a morning hangover , what the hell happened last night ! Anyway we’ve been here before many times however before the obituaries are placed a few things to bear in mind . The GFS is not preferred over the USA early next week with US forecasters preferring the ECM for its handling of the amplified wave which moves east. On the face of it both the ECM and GFS have the same overall pattern upto day 8 , if you look at the main features the key difference is the ECM engages the chunk of PV over ne Canada , the GFS doesn’t . And it’s flatter at the key timeframe whe
    19 points
  8. Not done a full analysis on the 500 mb anomaly charts but 2 out of 3, including NOAA, suggest the upper flow is going to change from flattish westerly to a more meridional flow sometime between, I would estimate, day 5 to day 8/9; the UK on the forward side of ridging with troughing to the east. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON MP1.MET.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
    18 points
  9. 18 points
  10. Nice to see GFS bringing back a more stable cold setup at Christmas!! Another run i would take right now.... A frost for many tues 22nd Wed 23rd,again a frost for many.. Christmas eve night Christmas Night.. Boxing night.. Temps close to zero up north through the day, coupled with the shorter daylight could produce some stunning Winter scenes over the festive period.
    17 points
  11. Well JMA T192 looks decent, you’d have to admit: Look I think we are at a reet crossroads here, I’d guess it is probably 2:1 in favour of a toppler on the current model output. But there is so much uncertainty in the next 8 days let alone what comes after, let’s hold fire on predictions for Christmas or New Year. Although Christmas does look cold, snowy? That is much less clear... Strat wise, forecast is for reduction in zonal winds, while NAM plot (GFS 0z) suggests trop maybe even winning the strat trop disconnect thing (not that its like the FA cup or anything!):
    16 points
  12. The overnight ecm clusters for Christmas -day 9-all go for a colder nw/n flow.It's just the angle of flow to be pinned down as we wait for the degree of ridging to be decided. Looking just beyond Christmas -the 28th-we can see real divergence with 5 clusters.Does the Greenland trough flatten the high and return us to Atlantic westerlies or does the high hold and maybe ridge ne pushing low heights south over Europe? An interesting period coming post Christmas.Today's London ens.temp.graph continues to show surface temps. staying below average although a
    16 points
  13. Not sure where we're at... I think it was Steve Murr (I might be wrong), who said: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.” 🤔 😉 To be honest I'm broken from work, I can't keep up with the daytime runs and too knackered at night. All I want for Christmas is a day off to be honest 👍 Anyway to keep this model related, apologies if already posted previously, but may introduce to you the GFSP... Once again, don't phone it's just for fun!
    14 points
  14. Hi All, First post from a long time lurker.... Some fantastic discussion over the years both in summer and winter. I am a bit OCD when extremes are shown, ( checking model output when supposed to be at work) Typical day in winter. Check mjo plots at 230 Fire up meteociel to check the icon at 3 Flick into wetterzentrale for ukmo at 4 Then onto Gfs and gem Then GFS ensembles Then ECM and ECM mean Then 18z GFS before bed Anyway.. thank you all for time you take out of your day to help people understand complex meteorology. Here is
    14 points
  15. Personally I think that trough droping SE through Boxing day is a very likely outcome. Short term pain for long term gain. I would 100% bank it.
    14 points
  16. Coldies in Algeria and Tunisia are watching this run and shouting Boom Baby🤣🤣🤣
    14 points
  17. Some Christmas Day snow on this run for some of England and Wales. Uppers are just about cold enough too. Muy bien!
    14 points
  18. Not too sure how much more of this I can take...... Arrrgh! Winters over! Weyhey! There’s gonna be a snow fest! Oh no! Winters over again, I’m out! Hooray - I’m back! It’s gonna be a white Xmas after all! But more caution is needed! But there’s still a lot to play for! Bless my poor heart. If I get through the next ten days it’ll be a result. “Well don’t look at this thread, then” some of you might say. Come off it. That would be like not watching the sky to see if I can spot Santa and his reindeer. Not a realistic suggestion, is it? Anyway, the models are still
    14 points
  19. I’m happy to report the ECM 0z operational is still looking BLUE!...I mean cold in time for crimbo!🥶😜 ⛄️
    14 points
  20. There is a word for the gefs suite and it’s ‘AMPLIFICATION’ .......across vast swathes of the NH the 00z op just had the amplification in the wrong places for us to get v cold ........
    14 points
  21. Gfs proving its utterly pointless after t144 hours with all this wild swings in its ouput every 6 hours of the day
    14 points
  22. LOL Matt! Did I? I have already admitted to being on the beer yesterday! Not with friends or anything because that is not permitted here. It is good to know that in this horrid unpredictable covid world, the SSTs don’t change from one day to the next 😄
    13 points
  23. The Doom brigade will be jumping over the collapse run...as usual but don’t worry. There will be an attack from the NW but unlikely until towards New Year imo. Lot’s to resolve , a bumpy ride....and here we go....cold for Christmas to start with 😎 BFTP
    13 points
  24. Op was a mild outlier for Xmas (see list for London) a very cold set of ensembles long term!
    13 points
  25. I take back what I said about the GFS, it’s a brilliant model.😉
    13 points
  26. Afternoon all, quick round up of the morning output. Good support from the 00z EPS clusters for a cold N or NW flow on Christmas Day as per 00z EC deterministic run. 00z EC det looking cold for Christmas lunch GEFS support for flow N or NW on Xmas day despite the operational run-to-run inconsistencies - however, it does flatten out the upper flow from the NW/W thereafter ... so uncertainty whether the cold has staying power Although yesterday's run, being the strat doesn't chop and change as much as the trop modelling, but EC shows at the 150 hPa level abo
    13 points
  27. A few snapshots from the beautiful GFS parallel run this morning.
    13 points
  28. I've got a feeling I will not be so popular after posts like these but a) Though the ECM looks good synoptically, there's almost no snow on it right out till Christmas Day and b) GFS is reasonably good at forecasting what happens at the tip of Greenland, so not to be disparaged!
    13 points
  29. Note to self when checking phone to read comments while eyes still ridiculously stuck together (yes, this roller-coaster has me reaching for this forum before anything else, very important lol), look at charts first. Still looks to me 👍
    13 points
  30. The expected pattern in the USA for mid next week is an amplified troughing set up into the Rockies in response to the amplified ne Pacific ridge. The downstream correlation to that is an amplified ridge in eastern Canada and amplified mid Atlantic troughing . The GFS tries to get there but its bias blows up that low to the nw . You would expect that to be less deep and sharper with more trough disruption. With that in mind the low dropping down in that fashion would more likely slide se as a weaker feature and not phase with the low over Denmark . The evolution from there
    12 points
  31. I mean, what the heck!!!! How on earth will the PV get its act back together after this ? Clearly, the pattern is nowhere near nailed, even out to 144. But I do love that these mad FI synoptics keeping getting churned out. This FI run is up there with last nights pub run shenanigans!
    12 points
  32. The GEFS 0z shows some wintry potential for crimbo!😜
    12 points
  33. Eh? So forget it or go with it? Your saying both. Are you a politician?😩😩🤣
    12 points
  34. I generally agree with what you're saying. Cool not cold. Frosts but that's it However, most (with some exceptions) on here know enough not to take a chart at silly range as gospel. It's about identifying trends. Why is it that some on here can't wait to sneer at those who get excited by potential cold showing in the models (not that I think anyone has been getting especially carried away anyway) when it starts to move away from cold. They're adults, most will know the vagaries of model-watching. If they want to get excited by a cold chart at 200hrs, so what? That's part of the fun and th
    11 points
  35. These charts could show an early sign of an arctic northernly if further 12z models show signs of it coming down south rather than south-west and could being snow with good further runs of models... This is my first post on this thread
    11 points
  36. Can't see why so many moan about GFS... Im loving some of the ens out to day 10...plenty of options in the table..Just imagine a great NH pattern setting up now,then a major SSW comes along and brings an Heatwave.. 😅 Heaven forbid folks, when Midnight Mass comes next week,I will prey that doesn't happen.
    11 points
  37. Aye but you have to remember that most of England hasn’t seen snow since the great freeze of 1630 where people ice skated on the Thames.
    11 points
  38. This will do from ECM 240. Flicking between 216 and 240 I noted pressure flowing and drooping to our south.. heights nudging towards Norway and maybe a little bump of heights forming tip of Greenland. Most agreeable I thought 🙂
    11 points
  39. Well, I don't know... why should one need 'someone-else' to tell them that the outlook is 'difficult to see'? Blimey, peeps, you should've been around in the 1960s... when 48-hours was FI?!😁
    10 points
  40. I think there are 3 reasons for this. First, the evidence, from the verification stats the GFS is not as good a model as ECM: At day 5 it is behind the ECM, UKMO and just behind the GEM (CMC on chart). Secondly, it runs 4 times a day so gets more airtime. Thirdly, all its output is freely available, whereas only limited output is available free from some of the other models. So you see more output from GFS on here for those reasons.
    10 points
  41. An interesting 10 day ECM chart at 100hpa - not only a split once again, but a shift of one daughter over to Scandy while the bigger half heads to Siberia. This must surely open the door....and note the amplified pattern over the Western Hemisphere. Zonal wind profile continues, as it has for several days, to emphasise an easterly average down as far as 60N Still watching the various signs of warming develop - wave 1 continues to be sustained out to 10 days....but regardless of warming for a SSW in January we have a chance of a cold blast through Scandy around New Year I think.
    10 points
  42. Sounds like they are going by EC46 guidance with higher pressure to the north and east and lower pressure to the south, could be looking at slider gate come early January, hopefully we can sustain colder air around our shores so the fronts can bump into them but let’s not get ahead ourselves let’s get the next 7 days patterns nailed first for a Christmas chill and hopefully a few surprises of a snowy kind ❄️
    10 points
  43. My cat never climbs, rarely jumps. She devotes all her energy to having teenage girl moods. 😑
    10 points
  44. I go out to do a bit of shopping,...comes back in and the gfs is the best model because of what it is showing in fl,tut! tut! THAT IS PURE FILTH!!!😆
    9 points
  45. Make no mistake, UKMO 144h is a gorgeous chart
    9 points
  46. Although I am new to posting here, I have been following this amazing forum for quite a few years now. One thing that has constantly piqued my interest is that when it comes to major negative comments about how a particular model is performing, it seems like >90% of these comments are directed at the GFS (very negative comments of ECM charts seem way less frequent), and almost always when the chart doesn't show what is being hoped for. I have to admit I find this complete dismissal bias somewhat surprising since GFS charts are posted all the time, and used as evidence to support an interpre
    9 points
  47. Gwan then.. nice evolution... and reflective of many recent runs..
    9 points
  48. Come on GFS give us a belter of a 6z. Just a reminder of last nights Scotch egg (18z) run. This is where the bar is set...No pressure .... 92BA2C2B-5077-4BDF-9768-DF699F12112A.webp
    9 points
  49. While GFS goes other way ECM is even more amplified than 12z.
    9 points
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