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What could possibly go wrong ! Good to see that some things never change ! The ECM has quite a different 12hrs run from its 00hrs especially with what the PV does . Treat with caution ! Easterlies and the ECM are a recipe for major traumas in here . A lot needs to go right after day 7. Red alert issued !

The GFS is somewhat underwhelming this morning compared to yesterday’s runs . It barrels the energy eastwards at day 6. The ECM is somewhat better at that point but there’s still a lack of trough disruption after that point . The UKMO is the best in terms of potential at day 6 as the limpet Euro high is pushed further to the sw. The lobe of high pressure is centred further to the nw with more energy splitting se underneath it. Even if the GFS is correct it’s not like we see the PV powering up to the nw , there might be another opportunity after that point to get some colder air se again . The ECM wants to bring an east west battle of high pressure to the east with troughing over the UK. So as ever more runs needed ! Overall not the fireworks many might like to see in terms of an early taste of winter but still some uncertainty as to how much trough disruption might occur around day 6 into 7 . For newer members the round low approaching at day 6 needs to elongate running nw se . Round low = little energy heading se more heading east so less trough disruption . The elongation means more energy is heading se to support that lobe of high pressure to the nw which will then help to hold the colder air over the UK .

Evening all I think we’ve got good agreement on the Synoptics up to around day 6 or 7. A node of heights amplifying around Greenland and then tumbling down through the U.K. All models then have another low approaching and possibly disrupting against that little wedge, but the nature of this interaction and the subsequent amplification (or lack of) is presently unclear. The GEM for example, does disrupt the low under the wedge to some extent but then it sort of hangs around near the UK and the next low follows quickly from the Eastern Seaboard with little amplification in between. Agree with the comments above vis the ECM, nice evolution but it’s got serious history of day 9-10 garden path highs. Still, it’s not completely unsupported by the 240 mean from earlier on and perhaps more so on the latest mean. The GFS at a similar time frame also toys with a Scandi high. As Nick rightfully points out, it’s a precarious evolution to get there and thus, unlikely to be there tomorrow morning. I think the form horse this evening is a cooler, unsettled outlook with systems perhaps taking a more negative tilt. There is certainly scope for amplification after that, but it’s been so long since a chart like the day 10 ECM actually happened during late autumn / early winter that I struggle to put any faith into it! The MJO’s expected evolution from phase 1 to 2 and then into the COD also supports these ideas to some extent. One thing does seem clear though is a disconnect between the borderline rampant upper strat and the troposphere, as long as this continues, the game remains on.

Firstly a warm welcome back @nick sussex I am late to to the party tonight and have spent a good chunk of an hour reading all the post's,by heck it's busy in here today,haven't you lot got anything better to do a look at the cpc for 6-10/8-14 500mb height anomalies suggest a cool upper NW'ly flow then heights returning from the south,this in turn would cut off the flow somewhat with the trough lifting out and settling down with some frost and fog more especially the SW obviously these are broad brush and don't show little features that could be running NW-SE in the flow and/or wedges of heights as these are not strong enough height wise to be shown in the anomalies talking of wedges,there is plenty showing up in the NWP's(det/ens models) to be of interest REMEMBER!!!:- make

The control isn’t v different ....

The ECM at day ten is on the money... ...yeah!,monopoly money nice chart though.

What a cracking UKMO to start the weekend off, high pressure building to the north west drawing cold arctic air south with a little channel runner...where the two shall meet......Snow......??? Goes to show how fickle the models are, anyone talking about the possibility of snow a few days ago would have been carried of in a straight jacket!

I'm bored, so I just had a look through the CFS. Some nice charts which will 100% verify. See you all on the next episode of 'Your Daily Dose of CFS'

Now this is what i want to happen.... Pert 12 ....but i know it won't

The fundamental point we should be taking from output over the past few weeks is that we're seeing a tendency for the trough to approach us on a more NW/SE axis. This suggests to me that we are currently predisposed to a more meridional jet flow. This bodes well going into December...

A slight deterioration in the forecast for cold & snow potential this week ( with the exception being the UKMO ) GFS 06z very progressive with the atlantic > thus not allowing the cold to become established across the uk before being swept away East. Usually the meeting point is a halfway house which may then present some chances of snow for Scotland... If UKMO correct then wintryness more widespread...

Not just a one off the idea of a Scandi/NW Russia high expanding westward, the models having been dropping hints in the medium range on and off and in various shapes and strengths for a few days now. And there's enough leeway in the ensemble guidance to support the idea too. Need the Atlantic trough to back off to the west - otherwise if it's too close we end up with mild southerlies or southeasterlies. Just hope the trop remains detached from the rapidly strengthening strat PV.

Well woke up on my 59th birthday hoping to see some great upgrades and cross model agreement. I suspect the slight to moderate variation in the outlook leaves all options on the table. The only positive I guess is there isn't one atm and big upgrades are possible I guess

I love how you just called him 'Timothy' Are you his father?

Certainly enough hints in the NWP at present to suggest a cold spell may be on the way within the next 4 weeks.

I think this forum would self destruct if that happened!

Easterlies? T plus 1 maybe 2 if feeling brave.

Heyyy! GFS 06Z at T+384... exciting innit! More runs needed?

Morning, boringly grey outside today. This is my last pre-puppy Saturday as next Friday we're picking up Fergus (border terrier). Right now it feels like preparing for a new baby, just hope it's not as disruptive sleep wise.

Morning all! A bit boring here today, grey and murky, so since there's no wind or rain I guess that log chopping is the order of the day. Yes, I caught a glimpse of the forecast for later in the week so best get as much chopped as I can. it would seem that there may be some white stuff falling from the sky, but since I'm usually disappointed whenever it is forecast I'll not bother looking out the snowshoes just yet.

Yes jules, still looks ridge trough ridge trough and fairly mobile Still enough for those of a wintry disposition to be hopeful as we enter the final stages of November but nothing across the nwp that’s solid enough to hang a facemask on, let alone a hat ! Whilst Exeter are still seeing an early December northerly of some description, I would see the more likely height rise to be to our ene and we then rely on enough of the jet being deflected and split south to bring any cold west. I should add that there is a bit of excitement around the ukmo day 6 chart this morning - some output isn’t far away (gfsp, gem) and these models all then take too much of the jet ne in the mid term. we could get lucky with a better jet split day 7/8 but looks unlikely. it wouldn’t take much of a change in split to drive a very interesting wedge, given the developing heights to our east ....

Nope, Steve was right ... Looks rotten.... Next...

I know we often chase the 87 style long fetch easterly but for my money I,d always go for a greeny /Iceland/Svalbard high for longevity and a more widespread snowy outcome. Scandi highs if they don't sink nearly always retrogress to Greenland anyway in our great winters so why not cut out the middleman. I would prefer to wait that bit longer for the GFS out come with the negatively tilted trough rather than the face to face high east low west combo. The GFS outcome had genuinely cold uppers sliding round the back of the high and support from lows heading east into Europe. The ECM has none of this and to me looks as if the high would sink with slightest bit of eastward pressure from the Atlantic. Just my take.......we shall see.

This is why I think any cold chances are either early to mid December, before the strat and trop vortices couple, and much later into Feb, after an SSW. Zonal winds in the strat are already high: Disconnected with what we see down here, but it is only a matter of time before they connect, can we squeeze a cold spell before this happens?

More than ok Tim....beautiful! BFTP

Fantastic ecm tonight more like the ukmo at 144 hours than gfs in my opinion!!can imagine ukmo looking even better!!game on!!

Excellent day 10 ECM- would get colder and colder from the E Decent N hemisphere set up too for the longer game

I think we're all celebrating your Birthday, swfc? As Ollie Reed might've said: Hic!

Good thing it's only likely to improve and inch westwards, run on run, until it counts down to an early beast Christmas present... Hiccup

GFS is drunk, likely to verify

In a way, I think if it went out further, the UKMO would likely lead to a similar scenario of the 00Z NAVGEM. The mid-Atlantic and Icelandic High showing some fairly decent amplification where the Low on its Western side becomes negatively tilted and rather squashed, as it shifts Eastwards under those wedge of heights to our North. Compared to some other models, there’s more amplification to that High Pressure, and the mid to Western Atlantic Lows don’t blow away that ridging. However, it’s likely that the Low to our West in the Northern Atlantic would push/disrupt in a more Southerly track under that mid-Atlantic and Icelandic ridging on the UKMO, thanks to the Azores High generally suppressed further South. Better possibilities for keeping the cold going, and probably not necessarily for just Northern UK:

GFS 6 z @ 144 hrs ( 850 hPa ) A brief window of interest on Fri 20th for the North and East of the country according to the GFS 6z. Nice to see the -8 isotherm making an appearance on the model output within the 7 day range i suppose

Well, whaddayouknow: a synoptic that, back in the 1960s, might have produced 3-hours' steady snowfall... But, in our currently warming world -- bugger all!

Happy Birthday, swfc...I was being introduced to the 'wonders' of school, when you were born!

Mornin' all... Isn't the GFS 00Z, at T+384, just greeaatt? Well, not really: But, at least the GEFS ensembles present a very clear and incisive picture: Okay then, children... don't forget your brollies on November 21st!

T144 ukmo, gfs and gfs mean. Ukmo is preferred. I find the gfs mean interesting as it is more like the ukmo. Many of the ens are not dissimilar to ukmo. Let’s see what ecm brings.

The wait is over Zac! 2 outta 3 ain’t bad! @Mike Poole we really could do with verifying that Scandi / Urals high to perturb this burgeoning vortex. Otherwise as you say it’s only a matter of time until... Just for once in our lives could we have that chart inverted!!!

@Uncertainy Wow Josh! Very good and informative post, please keep it up! I agree with you and Nick re. how uncertain next week will be. You will see all these winter nirvana charts popping up circa day 10, but it's highly likely that they will disappear the day after! I'm waiting for the ECM clusters to come out. Interested to see how many members go for the colder solution over NW Europe at day 9 and 10, like the op did.

But, goodness me, they're exciting!

The UKMO has a deeper cold air mass over the British Isles compared to the GFS at day 6. The GFS looks quite fluid in comparison, whist the UKMO entrenches the cold in situ. See if this evenings ECM run sides with or produces something. Anyways looks like an active cold front to pass through the UK mid week with quite a temp drop after its passage. c

GFS 12z is looking a tad more amplified early doors (with wishful thinking and a bit of squinting).

Quite a bit of flip flopping between model runs at the edge of reliable range range right now (144-168hrs), often a sign models are struggling to adjust to signal of a pattern change. Expecting future runs between all models over rest of the weekend to show various scenarios for this time next week, and it won't be until early next week before a sense of coming together will occur. With that fully expecting at least one GFS run to show a raging northerly, followed by a long-fetch south westerly and atlantic steam rolling through, usually a sign we end up with something in the middle. General direction of travel probably is looking to our NW for our weather as we move through latter part of the month than any other direction, i.e. the attack and forcing is from the NW, which means most likely 'seasonal', and quite different in feel to the first two thirds of the month which so far has been dank, dreary and very mild.. hopefully some welcome sunshine will be back and frost.

Wow, wow, wow..hey I sound like zeroblog on youtube..check him out, he’s a funny dude..anyway...the message from the Gfs 6z op is head north, drive up to the north of Scotland for a brief taste of winter later next week..wow..wow!

I'm in a quandary; I don't approve of Amazon, never have, and I don't use them for anything, however the autumn rugby internationals are on their channel and my pal from up the road has a thing called a firestick that he is fitting to my tv at this very moment. Should I send him and his firestick home or just sit here with this vast collection of beers and see what unfolds...? Temperature currently 9.0deg.C up from a minimum of 7.7deg.C at 04:29, humidity is 92%, wind is between 4 and 10mph south to southeasterly, pressure is 998.4hPa and dropping like a rock, there's been 4.8mm of rain today so far under a completely cloudy sky.

6 z gfs again early doors has lost the Heighths exiting the the esb ete. Leaves the PV to pump up and spread sse. Not sure where that leaves things long term but Id suspect a more mobile west to east flow. Hopefully wrong as usual but hey ho and all thst

Wow.. The place is buzzing and its barely mid month.. So a change expected later next week with a return to something more seasonal like. I'm hearing much about Exeters thoughts on a colder spell come late month and into next. The possibility is there for sure, last nights EC46 is hinting at High pressure having quite an input into next month, now obviously where this sets up could be crucial moving further forward... There is certainly a distinct lack of Atlantic oomph being indicated by the EC Weeklies for a good chunk of December, so I would say the chances of something more seasonal are definitely on the increase.. With frost becoming more common place with time.. This is also being backed up by the EC extended anomalies which have been hinting at a colder December for some time. And on that note I wish you all a great and healthy Weekend... Perhaps it could be time to start ordering that Xmas shopping online, cause I have a feeling December 2nd is gonna be absolute bedlam...

From mwis. Planning Outlook Generally unsettled as a series of weather systems move across Britain from the Atlantic. Frequent upland gales, sometimes severe gales. Considerable rainfall totals over western mountains. Mild southwesterlies return early in the new week, but indications favour a colder pattern developing later next week as the prevailing airflow turns northwesterly, resulting in higher mountains being more commonly sub-zero with snowfalls at times. Don't miss our latest video content on the MWIS YouTube channel, also available at mwis.org.uk

Some bright intervals here today and just a couple of light showers. A cold wind though despite the temp topping 10C briefly. Now 6C. Incidentally I don't think I can remember ever seeing as many geese flying over my house heading down towards the Tay as there were at dusk today. Must have been at least twenty large skeins. What does it mean?

Similar enough run, cold doesn't plunge quite so far into Europe to my eyes, but interesting heights still later towards the north in FI, many changes expected I wouldn't hesitate and curious where this might end up and how far the action out west makes inroads.

Hi all . I’m back from my summer hibernation . A warm welcome to all the new members . It’s hard to believe we’re back again chasing those hard to come by good winter charts . It’s true the older you get the quicker the years seem to flash by! Anyway in terms of the latest models. Certainly some interest has developed over the last few days in terms of some colder weather , snow wise not the depth of cold at this stage unless you’re higher up . The GFS does have a shortwave feature running east/se with some colder air tucking south . In mid winter this would be leading to pandemonium in here but currently not quite cold enough for more widespread interest. I think the thing to keep an eye on is how the models deal with pressure rising to the nw and also what happens to the PV . If you don’t get a chunk splitting off and taking up shop over sw Greenland then the energy supply for low pressure moving east is going to be reduced so more shallower features could disrupt se under any high pressure . Day 6 into 7 looks key where you need sufficient upstream trough disruption to support that lobe of high pressure to the nw .