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Course there is but which year ??? come on we are barely into autumn anyway,long post coming up:- back to model viewing,i have an inkling that if we get a hp cell parked near or over the UK there is every possibility of it shifting west in time to allow for more of a polar maritime influence,i say this because the mjo is heading into the favorable phases of 7-8-1 gefs and ecm to a lesser extent as always because it's legs only go out to day ten the only problem here is that they are not amplified enough(away from the cod)(circle of death) to diminish a full on zonality to become more amplified and meridional if you know what i mean,IE:- more amplified,the more meridional(red arrows) here is an illustration of the jet in zonal and amplified modes- to get the amplification you will need wave breaking,wave breaking is the break up of low pressures at an extent where high pressure forms in between lows sufficient enough to break the chain of the lows,this in turn causes amplification between low's and then a buckle effect is then created in the jet stream the NAO/AO(North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation) are pretty much in the same family as to what drives our weather in the NH(NORTHERN HEMISPHERE),sos for the caps lol at the moment the NAO/AO are at a neutral phase and are forecast to become slightly positive,this in turn enhances the zonality of the weather patterns CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV as you can see the AO is going into a positive territory,this in turn ramps up the pv from it's wake and sets the turn for a more zonal westerly regime forcing the NAO to aslo drive west what we want is a -NAO/AO(dream scenario) but a -NAO can work as long as there is sufficient amplification in the Atlantic to slow the jet stream and become negative and buckled(meridional) as you can see below,here are the 10/30 hpa temps over the north pole Climate System Monitoring / TCC DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC at the top of the strat the temps are colder the the average mean(grey line),this is quite normal,this is what i will always monitor going into the winter months if you get an uptick like this going into the winter months then this signals a SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) not all SSW's will result in a cold winter in the UK as we have found out recently(cannot remember the year)but favor more blocking and colder weather to push further south out of the pole into the mid latitudes sorry for the long post,i just got a bit bored,i wish that i didn't book/waste this week off work but my OH was in hospital until thursday this week with a stomach hernia so it has been hard going,she was tested three times over the ten days in staying in hospital for COVID-19 and all came back neg which is great news,i don't want to derail the thread but this year has been a testing time to say the least i feel this winter has a more traditional feel to it,maybe just me but we do have some puzzles of the jigsaw in our favour:- La nina(not to strong) -1.5 will do solar minimum(time lag)-1-2 years -IOD(a lot better than last year)-what a crap year that was and lastly-QBO,GET A GRIP and that is it,let the cat face the flap(Paddy Mcguinness) night all and stay away from covidiots

@Tamarawowzers, just to quantify, I'm qualified to fly single engine piston, twin engine piston, jet multicrew certified via Boeing 737, and type-rated on the airbus a320 family... But I have to say that was the most comprehensive explanation I've ever come across here... I'm actually struggling for words. I'm going have to reread this a few times over several days to even attempt to absorb and understand it. Mind is blown.

Here's an interesting comparison: between 1st November 1978 and 31st October 2020: 1978: 2020: And there was also an exceptional squally downpour in London, on the day of the Ally Pally firework display... and, Spurs beat Burnley 3-0 down at The Lane! So never write off winter... especially not 5-6 weeks' before it even starts!

I'm confused... I'm not sure whether I got an hour less in bed or an hour more.. Basically folks we have some more unsettled conditions to get out out of the way this coming week, before finally some signs of an improvement come next Weekend. In fact things looking much drier come the following week with High pressure well in control, that's the plan from ECM anyway! Take a look at the wider scale Temperature profiles.. Around avaerge or a tad above fro the UK.. any meaningful cold reserved for Northern Scandy and the far East... Plenty of heat much further South, and hey presto... Bone chilling cold for the Greenland location... Come on Greenland don't get hogging all the cold like last Winter! Spill a little further SE. Early days just yet and certainly not getting to hung up over a lack of cold showing just yet. If I recall this time last year the signs were looking positive for the first stages of winter... And look what followed!! Have a fab end of Weekend, and keep them neighbours off ya Back garden.

My third CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel My first and second updates came in with the following figures Update 1 26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data Temps 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Mild 0 Mild 2 1 2 5 Average 4 6 5 3 18 AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS Cold 4 3 4 3 14 PREDICTED IN FIRST UPDATE V Cold 1 2 3 LEADER AV/CD AV AV/CD AV/CD AV Precip 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Dry 0 Dry 2 4 3 7 16 Average 4 2 4 2 12 DRIER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED Wet 4 4 3 1 12 IN FIRST UPDATE V Wet 0 LEADER AV/WET AV AV DRY DRY Update 2 06/10/2020 to 15/10/2020 Data Temps 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Mild 0 Mild 1 1 UPDATE 2 Average 7 7 6 3 23 AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS Cold 1 3 2 5 11 COLDER THAN AVERAGE MOST LIKELY ALTERNATIVE V Cold 1 2 2 5 LEADER AV AV AV CD AV Precip 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Dry 0 Dry 2 2 2 1 7 UPDATE 2 Average 6 4 7 6 23 AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS Wet 2 3 1 3 9 V Wet 1 1 LEADER AV AV AV AV AV LATEST UPDATE - UPDATE 3 Now it is time to reveal the latest 10 days of analysis from the 9 monthly CFS runs for Christmas 2020. The change from the previous update is shown in brackets next to the figures in the totals column. 16/10/2020 to 25/10/2020 Data Temps 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Mild 0 (No Change) Mild 2 2 (+1) Average 5 4 5 3 17 (-6) AVERAGE TO COLDER THAN AVERAGE CHRISTMAS PREDICTED Cold 5 3 5 4 17 (+6) V Cold 3 1 4 (-1) LEADER AV/CD COLD AV/CD COLD AV/CD Precip 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Dry 0 (No Change) Dry 1 3 3 3 10 (+3) Average 6 7 4 5 22 (-1) AVERAGE PRECIPITATION PREDICTED FOR CHRISTMAS Wet 3 3 2 8 (-1) V Wet 0 (-1) LEADER AV AV AV AV AV Overall Temperatures for Christmas 2020 based on the last 10 days worth of CFS 9 monthly run data show a general shift back towards colder than average again compared with the second update and we are now more back in line with what the first update was showing. Good news in general if you want a colder than average Christmas in 2020. A perfect tie between average and colder than average this time around with 17 hits each. V Mild continues its drought with 0 hits yet again, good. Between Mild and V Cold it is V Cold that has generally won out with around twice as many hits as mild has been getting so far. The good news is that V Cold has generally performed better compared with Mild in more recent updates compared with the first and probably most unreliable of the updates with been furthest away from the day itself Overall Precipitation for Christmas 2020 based on the last 10 days worth of CFS 9 monthly run data continues the average precipitation signal which has stuck but with drier than average the most likely alternative option if this one doesn't come off. Could be a chance of snow here but to get anything other than a slight dusting at best we would really want to keep the colder signal and shift more towards wetter than average. My 4th CFS 9 monthly run Christmas update will be due in another 10 days time on the 04/11/2020. Lets see what may have changed by then.

Well the 12z GFS churns this chart out in FI, with noticeable height rises over Scandi and Russia...

Thank you @Tamara, as always, for your in-depth, well-researched and well-explained analysis. Your reasonable, balanced voice will be greatly missed over the winter months and I know I speak for many others when I wish you loads of luck with your move to Portugal May the weather there be perfect (whichever flavour of 'perfect' you seek!).

Had a few heavy showers this morning but no thunder. Meanwhile not that far away...

Following some early morning thunder & lightning here in north west Wales - this beaut popped up to the south of us just before sunset this evening!

Those Zak-O-Vision specs must be good?

North Sea?

Absolutely and what’s concerning is it’s happened twice within 5 years. Something is definitely up and I suspect it’s a symptom of climate change.

It's more annoying that it's been the EQBO getting blocked both times!

I've changed a setting today, which should resolve any upload issues.

Looking at the weather forecast last night, it seemed that in this region at least (but not further south), the thin squally line associated with the active cold front was subsumed by a more substantial area of rain which was not previously forecast. Thus there was more rain than forecast but less in the way of a squally ending to the rain. It was 11pm before I noted that the rain had cleared from this part of the region and I think there must have been further showers during the night which have continued to the present. Hope this makes sense. I enjoyed the walk in the light to the paper shop at 7.30am this morning, but not looking forward to the dark evening from 5pm tonight. At least we are having a roast beef dinner with all the trimmings including Yorkshire pudding!

Even out on the Pacific coast, my son in Vancouver reports super cold conditions. Very low DPs spilling out from the Great divide cold high pressure block. Current Dew Point is -15c in the city centre with air temp of 0c. C

Morning folks! Seems like ages since I was on here! Been moving house. Not far - about 300m but looking forward to hopefully posting some snowy pics of the trampoline in a different garden Not a bad morning this morning after a usable day yesterday. Going to leave the house stuff this morning and head out for a walk and clear the head!

It seems like a brief change in wind direction finally caused the squall to move east like it was meant to. It had to have been the strongest squall here in years when it did. Bonkers. Neighbour’s fence and greenhouse took a battering but the normally sheltered area that I’m in was wild & alive for a minute or so.

Indeed, I think what you find is if one region is doing alright for ice, you know for sure another region is well below average. I mean this time next year, it could be the opposite way round with the Beaufort quick to melt and slow to refreeze whilst the Siberian arctic is slower to melt and quicker to refreeze. In terms of a slower refreeze means thinner ice cover then maybe but ice grows to around 2 metres thick quite quickly then slows down. The reason why the Siberian side of the basin had thinner ice and lack of fast ice was due to the positive AO which meant a lack of high pressure compacting the ice against the Siberian coastline. Complete contrast to the start of the melt season in 2018 where there was a lot of thick ice in this region and despite high summer temperatures, it persisted as long as it could. This year with a record breaking retreat of Siberian snowcover and June heatwaves, the ice was always going to retreat very quickly although this did to an extent helped the CAB ice not becoming diffused like it did in 2016. In terms of a BOE, ice getting past 85 degrees north is a tough task, but what was impressive this year just how much the Atlantic side retreated in the 2nd half of the melt season, totally did not see that coming.

La nina enso for winter 2010-2011 was super strong and we got the coldest December in 100 years lots of peeps in here take every negative teleconnection as gospel and every teleconnection has to be perfectly aligned to produce cold afraid it don't work like that but if i was to make my prediction on the incoming winter and I'm worth my weight in kangaroo dung in here the biggest player i believe this year is we are coming out of solar minimum and new cycle is here that's our ACE BALL.

As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones. The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chance of cold weather, it certainly happened during last solar cycle. We've been struck a very poor hand in recent years for cold and snow, indeed every hand has been poor, and the probability of yet again another mild wet one has to be higher than a cold dry / snowy one. Hopes seem to have resided in SSW events and they have delivered on two occasions 2013 and 2018, but also gone bust such as 2019. As always best to keep an open mind, lower your expectations and expect the unexpected. Given how dire the last two winters have been for cold and snow, my expectations are starting from an exceptionally low base state, gosh even a day of moderate snowfall that doesn't thaw as soon as it stops would be something special!

While you'll almost certainly be right that we won't see cold like Dec 2010 this winter, it's worth remembering that someone might have said the same thing back in 1981 (coldest Dec since 1890) and it only took 29 years rather than 100. Similarly from a 'warm' perspective, it was unlikely April 2007's 11.2C CET would be exceeded as soon as 2011 even in a warming climate, especially since the May & June records have stood since the 1800s, but these things do seem to happen! We're certainly not overdue a sub-zero December but we're probably overdue a relatively cool anticyclonic one as you say. I have fond memories of some calm and frosty December weather in the 2000s - e.g. 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009 - early winter seems to have been much more unsettled since 2011 in general.

Making assumptions now for the entire winter based on the october strat is a risky business ( same as assuming a slower start means narnia ) The current forecast gets the vortex to 30 M/S The years you mention reached 40M/S in some cases although the theme of some sort of sharp reduction in November is apparent. The key time for 2020/2021 Winter is the period post 05th Nov - Start of December as we dip off from that first 30M/S maxima...

Anvil central here.

Upin Aberdeen for the weekend. Rather chilly and pretty windy down at the beach this afternoon.

Thought I would just use the excuse of walking the dog to sneak over the border into tier 2 West Yorkshire for 5 minutes to see if was any different than here. it wasn’t and at least the tier 3 Lancashire sunset is better

Not much to speak of overhead but the view has been similar to this to the south over the channel for a lot of the day.

Oo er--GFS at T=120: GFS at T+270: Can't post T850s, keep getting ads!

Average winters are good too and can throw up the odd surprise snow event!! The 2018 beast from the east arrived during a average winter

Heavy showers here, just managed to get a picture as it cleared.

rainbow

Day 12 of fresh daily snow. But what a cold night. Currently -17oC at 8am. ^ Not sure I remember minus 20 being hit overnight so early. I’d imagine with the cold air now in under a high pressure that’ll be it for snow. Quite a remarkable stretch of weather for October.

Looks like drying out later on in the period.Where the High pressure locates itself will be the key if we are to get some early cold weather in,for a change.

101 north I might be moving too. Viewing the hoose tomorrow. Much further down, more sun/less snaw. I don't know how to find the altitude - it's the village of Ancrum just north of Jedburgh.

Record breaking minimum October temps this Sunday morning in Southern Alberta and North Montana. Widely down to -20c. as strong high pressure builds behind the Arctic Front. C

It has just stopped raining and I really do think it rained all night. Again. Wind has just dropped and sky trying very hard to clear, but I feel that no matter how hard it tries today, the clouds will always win. Bummer. Temp currently 7.4c and Oh Look! It's started raining again! Tomorrow looking a lot better so may get a walk in somewhere during the day. On a down note, whilst happily chomping on a fruit pastille yesterday I lost a filling. Not just a bit of it, the whole thing. I now have what I feel is a colossal gap there and I now have to chew on one side only. Fortunately it doesn't affect my imbibing of red wine, which I am thankful for. May have to contact dentist to see if anything can be done but with the current situation I fear not. Ah well, might have to liquidise all solid grub soon. Imagine, steak pie and tatties and veg in a mushy mess. Boak.

Started about 6pm in the London area Christmas Day 1927 from a weather book i was reading years ago.By midnight countless roads were blocked by snow and a train become snowbound in Alton,Hampshire.Their was an 8ft high snowdrift a mile long in the Chilterns! Repeat this year would be most welcome.

Teton village now starting it's snow season, and Jackson Hole (WY) seeing a mx of rain/snow.. Grand Teton (WY) Jackson Hole (WY)

Not Encouraging for me because I'm in camelford

Roll on the cold and crisp sunny days, which hopefully aren't too far away.

Wow so quiet in here, anyone would think winter was over or something????...lol,anyway, there seems to have been a few spanner’s thrown in the works regarding a settled extended outlook but there is still some support for an anticyclonic early November according to the GEFS 12z mean / perturbations!

Morning peeps Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted here for a while but being a coldie my season is about to start. looking at that chart I was saying dear oh dear there is no sign of anything cold developing just yet. But I am glad this pattern is showing up now rather than when we enter winter proper. I rather get all the mild weather out of the way now rather than seeing this in December or January . Like a lot of you I have waited this whole year for winter to start and now time is getting closer. I do hope that we at least get a few snowey days, as I have promised my nephew and neice I will definately take them out and we have been saying this since last winter. With our little island it's so hard to even predict what will happen in a weeks time. I know as we go through November the minds of us coldies will be focused on how the building blocks are getting together, as it is this jigsaw if just right can deliver the cold and snow. I will be looking at how temperatures are doing in the east and north of us and also if any high pressure starts building. That said the weather will do what it has to unfortunately it's not in our control but we always live in that hope that maybe this winter. Apart from the weather there are a lot more other things that has worried us this year and with Covid still on the scene does not look as if things will get better any soon. I hope you and all your families stay safe and sound and we all get through this storm. take care all for now stay safe kind regards

Decoded this Meteor M2 weather satellite pass earlier this morning. Shows the low pressure system out west pretty well.

Love when the clocks go back. I know some of you hate the dark evenings, but for me it brings in the best time of the year. I work nights so, the drive to work in the dark evening, with cold mists hanging in the air. Leaving work in the early hours during a cold frosty morning. It's magical for me. Wouldn't change it for the world.

Day started inauspiciously with the usual Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ accompanied by some light rain. But lo and behold, there was a clearance to clear blue skies and a glorious afternoon. Kids duly sent outside for the afternoon Max of 9c in the afternoon and light winds - temperatures are dropping fast, already down to 1.1c so a frost is likely. As noted by others, some glorious colours in the trees at the moment... Clear skies outside allowing the viewing of a weak aurora (supposed to be better later on this weekend if the clouds stay away). Up in Shetland though its spectacular... https://www.shetlandwebcams.com/eshaness-lighthouse/ Some glorious photos on this facebook site as well... Shetland Aurora Hunter (Facebook) An example being...

What is the plan over there @CatchMyDrift? Couple of shots summing up this afternoon's weather. Up to 9.3°C.

Well the 12z GEM is following the ECM and is showing a very settled and warm end to October and start to November. It even has the 16c isotherm in the SE for day 7.

I see this thread is as positive as ever! Interesting thoughts from everyone - we still have another five weeks of Autumn to get through so no excitement/doom from me at this early stage. Nothing to worry about until the end of November at least - model outlooks are pure cannon fodder at this range. Good for discussion though of course. I understand the frustration - last Winter was pathetic from a cold/snow point of view! Cant be any worse this Winter...can it!? Just relax and enjoy the snowy scenes from the home of Santa Claus - Rovaniemi (Lapland) Finland. All together now...jingle bells...jingle bells... Have a good weekend everyone - all the best to you all!

Not aiming this as an argument however, I have said a few times before but yes we all know about the warming side of climate change however it continues to amaze me just how many on here seem to either ignore or simply miss the cold side of the story too, we seen it last year with record breaking cold and snowfall events around the world as I highlighted in my snow and ice twitter thread and already if you look at this years there have been record snowfalls in Minneapolis and a few other areas, these vary on the amount of years the record has stood for obviously but usually u are talking about a 50-100 year old record which is equivalent of a 1 in 50/100 year event so I’m not sure we can say with certainty that a December 2010 will never happen again

CET now on the rise, not often latter part of October is milder than first part, but could well be the case this year. So we may not end up below average now thanks to a predominantly mild Atlantic flow. We are now at the point in the year when westerly Atlantic airstreams result in means above the mean average, this holds until about late April, when westerlies return near average means and below by time reach June. Still relative to average in late October not much above unlike by the time we reach December..