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Showing content with the highest reputation on 25/10/20 in all areas

  1. Course there is but which year ??? come on we are barely into autumn anyway,long post coming up:- back to model viewing,i have an inkling that if we get a hp cell parked near or over the UK there is every possibility of it shifting west in time to allow for more of a polar maritime influence,i say this because the mjo is heading into the favorable phases of 7-8-1 gefs and ecm to a lesser extent as always because it's legs only go out to day ten😜 the only problem here is that they are not amplified enough(away from the cod)(circle of death) to diminish a full on
    15 points
  2. @Tamarawowzers, just to quantify, I'm qualified to fly single engine piston, twin engine piston, jet multicrew certified via Boeing 737, and type-rated on the airbus a320 family... But I have to say that was the most comprehensive explanation I've ever come across here... I'm actually struggling for words. I'm going have to reread this a few times over several days to even attempt to absorb and understand it. Mind is blown. 👍
    11 points
  3. Here's an interesting comparison: between 1st November 1978 and 31st October 2020: 1978: 2020: And there was also an exceptional squally downpour in London, on the day of the Ally Pally firework display... and, Spurs beat Burnley 3-0 down at The Lane! So never write off winter... especially not 5-6 weeks' before it even starts!🤓
    11 points
  4. I'm confused... I'm not sure whether I got an hour less in bed or an hour more.. 😂 Basically folks we have some more unsettled conditions to get out out of the way this coming week, before finally some signs of an improvement come next Weekend. In fact things looking much drier come the following week with High pressure well in control, that's the plan from ECM anyway! Take a look at the wider scale Temperature profiles.. Around avaerge or a tad above fro the UK.. any meaningful cold reserved for Northern Scandy and the far East... Plenty of heat much further South, and hey presto... Bone chil
    8 points
  5. My third CFS Christmas update here for you all to read today containing the next 10 days worth of analysis from the CFS 9 monthly runs from meteociel My first and second updates came in with the following figures Update 1 26/09/2020 to 05/10/2020 Data Temps 0z 6z 12z 18z TOTALS V Mild 0 Mild 2 1 2 5 Average 4 6 5 3 18 AVERAGE TO COLDER T
    6 points
  6. Well the 12z GFS churns this chart out in FI, with noticeable height rises over Scandi and Russia...
    5 points
  7. Thank you @Tamara, as always, for your in-depth, well-researched and well-explained analysis. Your reasonable, balanced voice will be greatly missed over the winter months and I know I speak for many others when I wish you loads of luck with your move to Portugal🤞👍 May the weather there be perfect (whichever flavour of 'perfect' you seek!).
    5 points
  8. Had a few heavy showers this morning but no thunder. Meanwhile not that far away...
    5 points
  9. Morning folks! Seems like ages since I was on here! Been moving house. Not far - about 300m 🤣 but looking forward to hopefully posting some snowy pics of the trampoline in a different garden 😂 Not a bad morning this morning after a usable day yesterday. Going to leave the house stuff this morning and head out for a walk and clear the head!
    5 points
  10. Following some early morning thunder & lightning here in north west Wales - this beaut popped up to the south of us just before sunset this evening!
    4 points
  11. 4 points
  12. Absolutely and what’s concerning is it’s happened twice within 5 years. Something is definitely up and I suspect it’s a symptom of climate change.
    4 points
  13. It's more annoying that it's been the EQBO getting blocked both times!
    4 points
  14. I've changed a setting today, which should resolve any upload issues.
    4 points
  15. Looking at the weather forecast last night, it seemed that in this region at least (but not further south), the thin squally line associated with the active cold front was subsumed by a more substantial area of rain which was not previously forecast. Thus there was more rain than forecast but less in the way of a squally ending to the rain. It was 11pm before I noted that the rain had cleared from this part of the region and I think there must have been further showers during the night which have continued to the present. Hope this makes sense. I enjoyed the walk in the light to the paper shop
    4 points
  16. Even out on the Pacific coast, my son in Vancouver reports super cold conditions. Very low DPs spilling out from the Great divide cold high pressure block. Current Dew Point is -15c in the city centre with air temp of 0c. C
    4 points
  17. It seems like a brief change in wind direction finally caused the squall to move east like it was meant to. It had to have been the strongest squall here in years when it did. Bonkers. Neighbour’s fence and greenhouse took a battering but the normally sheltered area that I’m in was wild & alive for a minute or so.
    4 points
  18. Indeed, I think what you find is if one region is doing alright for ice, you know for sure another region is well below average. I mean this time next year, it could be the opposite way round with the Beaufort quick to melt and slow to refreeze whilst the Siberian arctic is slower to melt and quicker to refreeze. In terms of a slower refreeze means thinner ice cover then maybe but ice grows to around 2 metres thick quite quickly then slows down. The reason why the Siberian side of the basin had thinner ice and lack of fast ice was due to the positive AO which meant a lack of high pressur
    4 points
  19. La nina enso for winter 2010-2011 was super strong and we got the coldest December in 100 years lots of peeps in here take every negative teleconnection as gospel and every teleconnection has to be perfectly aligned to produce cold afraid it don't work like that but if i was to make my prediction on the incoming winter and I'm worth my weight in kangaroo dung in here the biggest player i believe this year is we are coming out of solar minimum and new cycle is here that's our ACE BALL.
    3 points
  20. As ever, lots of mixed signals for the upcoming winter, last year it was all about the IOD, though I don't recall it being mentioned as a key influencer until the winter started. This year everything seems to be hinged on ENSO, a moderate La Nina and we may do ok for cold, a strong one and its curtains called. QBO seems to be doing another 16-17, but as we know on its own it can be a deceiver, many west QBO years produce cold winters and East QBO years mild ones. The solar cycle factor will be tested, some believe years when we are coming out of solar minima such as this one increase chan
    3 points
  21. While you'll almost certainly be right that we won't see cold like Dec 2010 this winter, it's worth remembering that someone might have said the same thing back in 1981 (coldest Dec since 1890) and it only took 29 years rather than 100. Similarly from a 'warm' perspective, it was unlikely April 2007's 11.2C CET would be exceeded as soon as 2011 even in a warming climate, especially since the May & June records have stood since the 1800s, but these things do seem to happen! We're certainly not overdue a sub-zero December but we're probably overdue a relatively cool anticyclonic one
    3 points
  22. Making assumptions now for the entire winter based on the october strat is a risky business ( same as assuming a slower start means narnia ) The current forecast gets the vortex to 30 M/S The years you mention reached 40M/S in some cases although the theme of some sort of sharp reduction in November is apparent. The key time for 2020/2021 Winter is the period post 05th Nov - Start of December as we dip off from that first 30M/S maxima...
    3 points
  23. Upin Aberdeen for the weekend. Rather chilly and pretty windy down at the beach this afternoon.
    3 points
  24. Thought I would just use the excuse of walking the dog to sneak over the border into tier 2 West Yorkshire for 5 minutes to see if was any different than here. it wasn’t and at least the tier 3 Lancashire sunset is better
    3 points
  25. Not much to speak of overhead but the view has been similar to this to the south over the channel for a lot of the day.
    3 points
  26. Oo er--GFS at T=120: GFS at T+270: Can't post T850s, keep getting ads!
    3 points
  27. Average winters are good too and can throw up the odd surprise snow event!! The 2018 beast from the east arrived during a average winter
    3 points
  28. Heavy showers here, just managed to get a picture as it cleared.
    3 points
  29. Day 12 of fresh daily snow. But what a cold night. Currently -17oC at 8am. ^ Not sure I remember minus 20 being hit overnight so early. I’d imagine with the cold air now in under a high pressure that’ll be it for snow. Quite a remarkable stretch of weather for October.
    3 points
  30. Looks like drying out later on in the period.Where the High pressure locates itself will be the key if we are to get some early cold weather in,for a change.
    3 points
  31. 101 north I might be moving too. Viewing the hoose tomorrow. Much further down, more sun/less snaw. I don't know how to find the altitude - it's the village of Ancrum just north of Jedburgh.
    3 points
  32. Record breaking minimum October temps this Sunday morning in Southern Alberta and North Montana. Widely down to -20c. as strong high pressure builds behind the Arctic Front. C
    3 points
  33. It has just stopped raining and I really do think it rained all night. Again. Wind has just dropped and sky trying very hard to clear, but I feel that no matter how hard it tries today, the clouds will always win. Bummer. Temp currently 7.4c and Oh Look! It's started raining again! Tomorrow looking a lot better so may get a walk in somewhere during the day. On a down note, whilst happily chomping on a fruit pastille yesterday I lost a filling. Not just a bit of it, the whole thing. I now have what I feel is a colossal gap there and I now have to chew on one side only. Fortunately it doe
    3 points
  34. Remembering when I was 21, came home from the pub and put the clock in the kitchen back, and then my sister came in from the club a couple of hours later and also put the kitchen clock back and hour and the front room clock. That was a confusing day.
    3 points
  35. Started about 6pm in the London area Christmas Day 1927 from a weather book i was reading years ago.By midnight countless roads were blocked by snow and a train become snowbound in Alton,Hampshire.Their was an 8ft high snowdrift a mile long in the Chilterns! Repeat this year would be most welcome.
    3 points
  36. Hi all,finally joined the forum after following the storm threads for a while. Currently in Hassocks,west Sussex and the squall line is well and truly here! Wind gusts to at least 50mph and torrential rain!
    3 points
  37. Teton village now starting it's snow season, and Jackson Hole (WY) seeing a mx of rain/snow.. Grand Teton (WY) Jackson Hole (WY)
    3 points
  38. Interesting profile from Russia across to the pole...could be fruitful down the line 🤔
    2 points
  39. You are not wrong there Damian 2009/10 and 2010/11 where both coming out of the solar cycle minimum i believe and produced the wintry goods but also solar max has produced i think it's to do with other factors/puzzles that also have to align correctly and there are so many of them like i posted in the mod thread the other night but like you say,it cannot get any worse than last winter and i think we are in a better position this time,,,,hopefully.
    2 points
  40. Saw lighting just to the north east of Eastbourne a short while ago!
    2 points
  41. Found a cracking crop of mushrooms during today's stomp.
    2 points
  42. Ever since the update, I've nae been able to upload GFS charts properly (either by address or copying)... I just keep getting sent to rubbish pages about cars.... A watch-the-paint-dry page would be preferable to bloody cars!😱😁
    2 points
  43. I've just noticed that I am close to my all-time monthly rain record, which incidentally is from last October - 194.8mm. I'm currently at 184mm.
    2 points
  44. It also shows how we're in somewhat of a negative feedback loop which makes an ice-free Arctic closer. If the water in the basin is absorbing ever more heat from being ice-free longer, then the ice the following winter takes longer to form and ends up thinner, which then thaws quicker in the following spring. We then have even more open water for a longer time and the cycle continues. Add to that the slow warming and its certainly a recipe for further falls in the coming years.
    2 points
  45. Morning peeps 😊 Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted here for a while but being a coldie my season is about to start. looking at that chart I was saying dear oh dear there is no sign of anything cold developing just yet. But I am glad this pattern is showing up now rather than when we enter winter proper. I rather get all the mild weather out of the way now rather than seeing this in December or January . Like a lot of you I have waited this whole year for winter to start and now time is getting closer. I do hope that we at least get a few snowey days, as I have promised
    2 points
  46. CET now on the rise, not often latter part of October is milder than first part, but could well be the case this year. So we may not end up below average now thanks to a predominantly mild Atlantic flow. We are now at the point in the year when westerly Atlantic airstreams result in means above the mean average, this holds until about late April, when westerlies return near average means and below by time reach June. Still relative to average in late October not much above unlike by the time we reach December..
    2 points
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