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Says it up top 02/10. Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressure anomaly to the North no be replaced by polar blocking & Ural blocking. Slightly weaker signal for Greenland than 2009 suggestive of more continental flows rather than Northerly flows. A very very positive update.

GLOSEA / Met office Dec anomalies.

Theme does seem to be appearing now of the snow and colder air spreading further and further west out of Siberia over the next ten days + , also @Steve Murr ‘s Greenland high going strong on the GEM again

Important observation made here, since March the jet has been in a highly meridional state, with limited lengthy zonal spells, this looks like continuing through rest of October, whether it breaks in time for winter who knows, but we have seen long periods in the past when its state has held for a significant period. Indeed Summer 2007 through until Summer 2013 brought blocked conditions and a diffuse meridional jet, this broke in the Autumn of 2013 to a zonal pattern, have we begun a flip back to an extended period where it is highly meridional again. A word on La Nina, the last time we had a moderate one was Winter 2010/2011, yes it was a major one, but as we know it produced that exceptionally cold start to the winter before becoming much milder. Remains to be seen how strong the La Nina becomes, but I wouldn't discount the chance of substantive cold if it holds into moderate category at least. A strong correlation with winter 10/11 and now is the state of the solar cycle, we were coming out of solar min then as well.

Hi, it’s GEM here. I’d like to show you all what a stonkin’ -ve NAO is!

Well that looks a pretty decent northerly from the gfs with -6 uppers reaching the south...

Lovely day high up above Tweeddale. Went off piste and ended up pinned against a deer fence descending the hill. Not so good. Pretty though.

I wasn't going to look until things (maybe) got going later in the month but Lordy the GFS 12 has a somewhat chilly chart for October.

I no longer take much interest now in long range forecasting. I don’t believe you can accurately be sure! Take each day as it comes and there will be small surprises at times that can often lead to something decent.

Yes it is Steve. Clear signal for higher heights to the north than predicted last month with lower pressure over western Russia perhaps helping advert cold westwards still. Smoothed 3 month averages are annoying - but a very positive shift as far as these maps go.

Great start to the day if great winter nhp synoptics are your thing. Looks to be a drier period coming with little sign of a west to east jet ie mobility. All good imo

Up in Highland Perthshire for the weekend for what was supposed to be a birthday get together that was much curtailed by the new regulations. Anyway heavy showers here brought in on a strong at times NorthWesterly wind and feeling rather cold. Higher mountains pretty much in cloud all day so not sure if snow is still on the tops. My daughter and her pals are climbing Ben Vorlich and Stuc A'Chroin tomorrow so hope it is a bit quieter then.

The ECM is just a crazy output for October. 00z ECM was -4 ! this will be similar - The most crazy chart ever. - Polar blocking AO -4 - Record positive heights SW of Greenland - +22c Anomaly west of Greenland - Warm plume up the eastern side of the US - Deep snow with blizzards over the mid west

The gfsp consistent on taking an ex typhoon into the n Pacific in a fortnight ......the more ex tropical air we can shove into the arctic the better!

I was reading that thread this morning...they take life very seriously, don't they? Lovely walk today but regretted wearing my 3-in-1 jacket as I was roasted less than half way through my 5 mile walk! High of 16c, low of 6.8c and marginally over 1mm of rain.

It is so "early in the season" it isn't even "the season" yet! Eager Beavers here on NetWeather" ECM would be a sickener in January.

Well I’ve been on the train that says very cold December with major winter outbreak for last 3rd Dec. Re Jan I personally think it will be a ‘westerly Atlantic’ mild one with a getting colder Feb. Nice to see other early updates Liking the front loader part. I think the Siberian snowcover will be expanding like crazy over next 2-3 weeks. Last chance for my major winter hit in next 3 years....so here we go. The depth of this solar minina provides me with great hope ....and the incredibly meridional jetstream is a joy to look at. BFTP

I’m more with @CreweCold than @Steve Murr on the GloSea5 update but only by a bit. I think, though, that it is an improvement on the September charts for NDJ, here October chart first: Remember these are 3 month averages, and we are at the moment interested primarily in the first two, the probability of higher heights to the north look significantly increased in the October outlook. But we have a long way to go, maybe the trend will be our friend, and the November update will be very important. Looking at the seasonals overall, though, there is enough suggestion for an early cold winter to keep the interest for now, that’s for sure. It could be so much worse at this stage. And let’s not forget that snow advance and events over the Arctic during October can be very important and we haven’t got a take on those yet really. Early days....

This would likely deposit snow on the hills at worse.... Only for fun at that range though. Today started wet and brrezy but cleared to occasional sun in the afternoon. Never warm but not cold either.

Quick photo that sums up yesterday

still looking for possible Indian summer, dosen't make it on this 12Z, but aligned a bit more to the west, could be near 20C, one to watch?

12z GFS shows some snow falling for Norfolk and East Anglia in FI.

I agree, it's far from great but I think the main point is it's step in the right direction after September's update. Just have to hope for further improvements in November!

Exeter = Snow?

Yes I’ve already mentioned the dark mode looks good but as someone who’s eyesight isn’t the best I’ll also say it’s very easy on the eye, excuse the pun.

GFS brings an early taste of Winter for parts of Scotland in particular. Not to be totally discounted with Exeters musings suggestive of snow to high ground.

A good long walk this morning in fantastic conditions. once a bit of cloud built up it became pretty cool but still not bad for this late in the autumn and it certainly gave some decent views.

As I mentioned before with the deep solar minimum of 1911-14 the winters were not a frosty snowfest. Infact most of the severe winters of the 20th century occurred closer to a solar maximum such as 1916-17, 1928-29, 1946-47 and 1978-79

The best anomaly profile for Winter is the ECM Ensemble mean for November ( The signal for December is almost the same just a tad weaker )

Let's hope so @iceman1991... One more mild, damp, dreich winter, and I'll opt for voluntary self-defenestration!

Just watched gavsweathervids latest winter update very interesting especially towards the end basically he was saying that we’ve having a lot of northern blocking at the moment through October and he had a few previous years with the blocking through October’s and the winters that followed and there’s an increased chance basically of having a colder winter

Models showing a fairly settled theme in the main once tomorrow' s rain is out of the way, thanks to heights developing strongly to the north and the jet becoming rather diffuse and weak in nature. The outcome is a chilly airflow from the north east, showery airstream for the SE and East, drier sunnier conditions further north west. Patchy frost and fog could become a common feature in sheltered northern parts. Longer term - no obvious signs of any major change, so a likely continuation of the cool theme. Good conditions for getting out and seeing the autumnal colours - leaves look like holding stay for quite some tie yet, no gales on the way.

Still calm here too, and bright and dry. And chilly. Temperature currently 2.4deg.C up from a min of 1.6deg.C at 08:09, r.h. is 97%, no wind, no rain, no cloud and pressure at 1029.2hPa rising slowly.

Lovely calm still morning, sun going to come oot any minute, 6C.

A few more photos as the storm passed nearby.

The 12z ECM offers some hints of an Indian Summer.

More than a whiff of October 2010 about the charts at present in regards to -AO Compare that to October 2011 where we saw a completely different Arctic profile-

Northern Europe soon to get an early taste of winter according to the Gfs 12z operational...it’s not all about the u k...it’s the bigger picture I find interesting at this stage in autumn!!!!!!

May not be too exciting but loved the colour of the setting sun and the leaves turning this why I love autumn

I’d take this anyday over a raging South Westerly and mild dross and flooding

There is a positive in the sense that it is quite a marked improvement on September's update for early winter. There is also wiggle room for a further improvement on the next update in November.

Looking at that update, hmm at thy e moment it seems to representing the fact that low heights are not really establishing well over the pole. In general over Europe there seems to be strong favouring for ridging over this part of the world instead of the wintry Scandinavian high/ Low pressure over Southern Europe (Positive anomalies over Southern Europe as well). At this stage this output would suggest dry and quite chilly weather at times with frost and fog possible if the high is centred more towards the U.K. However a weaker westerly signal would of course increase the chances of wintry conditions from the north or more likely east.

2018 started slow because of a huge ridge at the end of September and into October on the Pacific side which bought warm winds from the south. I think most years would struggle to gain ice with that type of weather pattern. However last year and this year seems to be more down to warm SSTS, especially on the Siberian side. Beaufort is refreezing quicker this year but this is no surprise as ice loss was slow therefore SSTS are cooler. The worrying trend im seeing is how much slower and weaker the PV is at this time of year compared to the 90s even and no doubt lack of ice and warm SSTS is causing this. I think the anaomoly charts for September will show just how much above normal this September(and previous September's) has been.

Wet and windy...

Certainly a cool day here with odd light drizzly showers and a fresh NW wind.Up most of last night calving cows ( Why won"t they do it in daylight hours ) in steading . Just as well as rained the whole time. One eventually calved by vet suffered a bit of damage to a hip but finally on its feet drinking off mum late pm today.A big cool down compared to just 10 days ago but with potential to dry up good for cattle outside.Maximum of 9c here today.

Foul night outside. And seems as though its gonna stay that way for a few days yet.. Oh well a few if these will help. Happy Saturday everybody

If the cold can build to the east, I don’t mind an Indian summer. As long as come December, that cold to the east is sent our way!

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, there’s a lot to keep an eye on, early wintry blast for parts of Northern Europe / Russia..and heat pumping north from Africa to Spain, to France and then southern u k...Indian summer anyone!

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational so far, this is not your typical autumn pattern chaps, I tell you, there is nothing typical about this!

Looks like the EQBO at 10hpa is finally going to start to strengthen a bit more and descend too. Current Zonal Wind Situation You can see the annoying WQBO occupying the areas between 20hpa and 70hpa. However take a look at the 240 hours forecast chart below You should notice how the area along the equator at 10hpa has a deeper amount of that darker blue patch and you should also be able to notice that the WQBO is slightly lower down than in the current situation chart. The other piece of good news is the loss of EQBO from 80 to 100hpa which should make room for the WQBO to descend into The following chart also looks promising for the quick progression through this WQBO Notice just how quickly we have progressed since June 2020 through the WQBO section of this chart and the September 2020 progress was rapid compared with the summer. This chart now shows a stronger WQBO than we had at the equivalent point in 2019 but it shouldn't progress much further in this direction as the fastest speeds at this stage are those 2 lines you can see just to the left and above the current position which means we should bend downwards soon towards the EQBO section of the chart The QBO chart itself shows the progress we have made with the WQBO especially 1 - The 10hpa EQBO is still there and at the moment has shown little sign of much strengthening on this chart but based on the zonal wind forecast above it should start to show more deeper blues in the coming days and if the forecast is also to be believed we should see this blue area expand downwards slightly 2 - The WQBO has got quite deep now and is clearly approaching its peak for this unexpected event. Although the top end of it appears to be sticking to 20hpa the lower end has really got a move on recently and has got down to almost 80hpa now. This should mean the EQBO will descend soon as when the WQBO base gets to around 80 to 90hpa the EQBO above should begin to replace the WQBO at the top 3 - I couldn't help but notice this big EQBO wind burst around 100hpa. I don't know what would cause such a wind burst at that level unless it is a reaction to the easterly anomaly earlier in the year and how the core of this has now reached 100hpa. I don't know whether this will have any effect on the EQBO at 10hpa or not but only time will tell