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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/09/20 in Posts

  1. A major change from ECMWF ahead of the winter.
    21 points
  2. Obviously a coastal issue as 18 miles inland, we had a cracking few days! High of 16.4 on Saturday and 15.4 on Sunday. Walked into our town centre on Saturday to drop off a painted stone for our lockdown display project and the sun was beating down. Sunday, there was some thin cloud but till very pleasant along the bank of the Dee. We were keeping our eyes peeled for the elusive otters that have made their home here but all we managed to see were loads of ducks with their bums in the air, feasting on whatever was below the surface.
    8 points
  3. Could be a good show tonight. Wet morning here today and then a wonderful sunny afternoon/evening - high of 15C. Crystal clear overhead at the moment but can see those showers on the Coast. Lovely tomorrow and then a washout Wednesday! All the best to you all.
    6 points
  4. Typical, I put washing out late morning, went onto a phone meeting then when I turned round it was raining! Not enough to register on my rain gauge but enough to stop my laundry from drying. Hey ho, looks like the drying rack will be used more often from now on. Hopefully tomorrow will be the best day of the week and the sun will make an appearance.
    6 points
  5. Beautiful day! Walk up the reservoirs with the kids this morning and just back from a 30 mile jaunt round the Pentlands on my bike. Really busy up there today with folks enjoying the weather and meeting friends and family. Got a bit off the beaten track to get some peace and quiet. Stunning! Love weather like today! One snap as I was too busy enjoying being out to take any more 😀 Time for a beer or 3!
    5 points
  6. A day of light grey Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ - clearing this evening to crystal clear skies! Armed with the Aurora Amber alert, dragged the kids out to have a look an hour ago - to discover nought bar two satellites..... kids not impressed. Just goes to show how quickly the aurora comes and goes. The late evening clearance allowed some sunshine to appear just before sunset - the low angle of the sun making the clouds look particularly sinister... Surprisingly mild day, with a max of 16c - coinciding with a few spots of rain around lunchtime (warm front passing over???).
    4 points
  7. After a damp middle of the morning to about 2 or so this afternoon the skies did break very sunny end to the day. Wonder if we get mist and fog tonight with the dampness of the ground so forth
    4 points
  8. Max of 11C exactly today and min of 0.9C so quite cool overall. In the sun and with a lighter breeze it didn't feel too bad and I had a walk this afternoon in shorts and a t shirt though I had to pretend a bit to my wife that I wasn't really feeling cold. Looks like another coldish one tonight with temp currently 8.4C.
    4 points
  9. An odd thing happened an hour after I posted here at 16:30; the sky cleared and the drizzle stopped. The only cloud visible was some cumulus on the western horizon. In the last couple of hours the cloud has started building again. We're getting some weather at last. Temperature currently 6.1 deg.C, r.h. at 97%, pressure 1016.8 hPa rising slowly, and no wind registering. Total rain today was 5.6mm.
    3 points
  10. Cool and cloudy here today with a max so far of 12C which is the current temp. Just a hint of rain about lunchtime but didn't last more than a few minutes.
    3 points
  11. It's remained dull and damp with occasional drizzle producing a total for the day so far of 5.6mm of rain, temperature currently 14.0 deg.C, which is a fraction down on the high for today, the wind has remained light to non-existent and pressure is steady at 1012.9 hPa.
    3 points
  12. If we weren't seeing rapid cooling at this time of year in the Arctic then we'd be in massive trouble! Sea ice should continue to grow on a weekly basis, and by a faster than average rate given that sea ice maxima are declining slower than minima. My ice data is from Bremen University, but even the JAXA/ADS data updated this morning shows a small drop in extent for the 27th. This agrees with the difference map (below) for the 26th to the 27th. Anything more than 2 days of losses at this time of year is truly exceptional, but 1 day loss (like we have now) isn't particularly rare. Using
    3 points
  13. Thanks for the above post. After checking your very good daily ice graphic on the other NetW Arctic thread, I went to look at Climate Reanalyser to check the outlook It showed a rapid cooling of Siberia and Eastern Russia over the next 10 days, with the (fledgling vortex?) depression now centred over the ESS/Kara, (producing the southerlies into Chukchi that you mentioned), but then gradually moving into Kara over the next 10 days. The effect is to push the ice away from Chukchi in the immediate future (as you suggest) but it will also push it further westward along the Atlanti
    3 points
  14. Please not lets see endless T+384 strat charts again this year, it's a completely futile exercise. (Not aimed at you mate, there's a few that did it all the way through last winter, and it's completely pointless at that range).
    3 points
  15. minus 1 this morning following by glorious sunny morning before high cloud filtered in from the west.
    3 points
  16. No frost here today.. just the same greyness as yesterday. No wind today tho so thats better than yesterday, other than that same s#*t different day.
    3 points
  17. Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! 🥶 Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!
    3 points
  18. Morning all, I would now like to start a Thread for my next venture - the MID/LATE AUTUMN HORSE RACING COMPETITION. The Competition will encompass the whole of October and November, and we'll be globetrotting around the World to some famous Horse Racing venues. The Competition will begin another "Double Header", from the superb ITV Racing Team. Saturday sees a total of 8 Competition Races from Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. On Sunday, we hope across the English Channel to Longchamp, on the Western edge of Paris. We will see the eagerly awaited clash between the "Qu
    2 points
  19. Finally the sun re-appeared this afternoon and with the temp reaching 18.4C with virtually no breeze it felt really pleasant. A couple more picks from last weekend and the result of the gales on the Norfolk coast. Hopefully not another repeat this coming weekend, but it certainly doesn't look like great weather. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-54324144
    2 points
  20. In amongst all the unsettled carnage on the latest model output there are a few anticyclones swimming against the tide in the GEFS 6z but to be honest, those of us who prefer calm autumn conditions will have to roll with the punches as it looks 👀 like a generally very unsettled spell is about to descend upon us for some considerable time although that doesn’t preclude the occasional more settled interlude.
    2 points
  21. Can anyone summarise exactly what will become freely available ? Can’t believe that the data which currently costs in excess of 100k per annum will suddenly become gratis !
    2 points
  22. I remember this day so well and the big change that came on the 22nd. The temperature swing was large from the morning to the afternoon 22nd September 00.00 22nd September 12.00 23rd September 00.00 The cold front got to my location at around 12pm on the 22nd. Was outdoors at the time and got caught out as I hadn't seen the weather forecast for this day and the promising pleasant warm start meant I went out with no coat or jumper on. Suited me just fine in the morning till that cold front arrived out of the blue. Was a strange cold front with clear bl
    2 points
  23. No panic yet. MetO for 3.4 is the most bullish for Nina tendency (other areas less negative) but there is quite wide scatter here still. And not many members here getting to -2.... .
    2 points
  24. 2 points
  25. Looking at the latest ECM...shows nothing other than low pressure over or near the country. So that spells rain, rain, rain and some windy spells - welcome to the glum season!
    2 points
  26. I was watching the BBC weather for the week ahead on Countryfile last night, and it seems that we are in for some very stormy weather next weekend. OK, that may change and locations of concern are not mentioned at this stage, but generally it does seem we are going to be 'attacked' by a particularly deep and vigorous low moving up from the south / south west next Saturday.
    2 points
  27. Morning all, I hope you are all ok. My apologies first. I should've read the accompanying piece of text, with the Photo of CORPORAL JONES, properly He is being Trained by Donald McCain, Son of "Ginger" McCain. "Ginger" McCain was famous for Training Grand National Legend, Red Rum. "Rummy" won a record 3 Grand Nationals, and also came 2nd twice. Although only 3 at the moment. "The Corporal" is expected to develop into s Staying Chaser and perhaps one day in the future, will take part in the Grand National himself. As I stated last Night, my Stepson Step
    2 points
  28. Well that's the Indian summer finished. This morning the weather is dull, damp and disappointing. Temperature currently 9.2 deg.C up from a minimum of 4.7 deg.C at 01:46, relative humidity is 95%, there's no wind, barometer at 1012.1 falling slowly, there's been 0.4mm or rain on the last 24 hours and the sky is 8/8 cloud covered. Strangely, although my weather station is recording very little to no wind and the trees behind me are still, the wind turbine on the farm on the other side of the wood is going like the clappers. Either it's very exposed or I'm very sheltered here.
    2 points
  29. 2 days blank, 192 for 2020, 71% Solar flux 74 Thermosphere: 4.00
    2 points
  30. Broken record time, another very quiet day in here, ending what has been the quietest week in the forum this year I feel. Outlook is less than inspiring and this is probably reason why, no prospects anything appreciably warm, and too early for anything particularly cold, but we have had some very cold nights in some places which have escaped people's attention. Also with everything else going on this week and a general sense of doom and gloom, I'm not surprised at the lack of posts. Alas, injecting some activity again this evening. No change in the models today, all showing a very unsettl
    2 points
  31. I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data. Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis). The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values. The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10. I
    2 points
  32. Overnight low of 3.1c so not as cold as further south. Thereafter a forgettable day. Generally grey, though the sun taunted you in the late afternoon by trying to break through the cloud. Max of 11c and dry. Strong aurora ongoing just now going by the alert I got, but the cloud is masking any view of that unfortunately.
    2 points
  33. Hi Matt, Hope you are keeping well mate, thanks for your thoughts and I look forward to hearing from you on 5th October with the EC update and fingers crossed it will be an improvement from September, Also you are absolutely right regarding the concept of SSW, it can have an imence impact on the overall winter pattern. All we need for our little island is the jigsaw blocks to all fall in place and then we are in the game. I have not lost any hope for the coming winter as you have already mentioned it is far too early to make any conclusion. What might be of importance is to see what
    2 points
  34. So Mrs Mair Snaw has today told me she wants more outside space. So i have agreed to another house move... she then says a home by the coast would be nice... she has been told to get tae f#*k. And quickly agreed to a move inland and said no more than 200m asl.. oh go on then. 😂😂😂
    2 points
  35. Third air frost at - 2.7°C. All the begonias are black this morning.
    2 points
  36. Yes, growing veg has not gone well here either. Funny year.
    2 points
  37. The correlation (though its weak at about +0.4) is actually for the gradient increase (not the nominal) south of 60N and west of somewhere in Russia and its actually from the final week of September through the third week of October. Obviously it had success in 09 and 12 (12 especially had the snow just pour south into China so huge sub-60N totals) but a major flop in 16 where we had stellar snowcover but fell flat. .............. Anyhow with the Ural ridging now prompting a -AO the pattern is actually becoming highly favourable for Siberian snowcover.
    2 points
  38. Definitely picked the wrong year to start growing stuff.... Last frost - May 14th - which is a couple of weeks later than anytime in the previous 12 years June, July and August all less sun than normal And now a first frost 3-4 weeks earlier than normal 🤬
    2 points
  39. And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!
    2 points
  40. First proper frost of the season. Cars, grass etc all white and still hanging on in the shade. Stunning morning, not a cloud in the sky.
    2 points
  41. Lovely sunny morning blue skies and 1C, birds water was frozen. Fed birds, we've got a mob of wee sparrows living in the hedge and they sit on the fence and look into the kitchen until somebody feeds them.
    2 points
  42. Wow! Met more than a bit out with their low temps! -3c when I got up! Currently -2c! First proper white frost of Autumn! Stunning morning.
    2 points
  43. Not particularly warm but an absolutely beautiful day! Looks like more to come tomorrow! Great stuff 😀
    2 points
  44. Second air frost with min of 0.0°C. Beautiful day walking up Glenholm this afternoon
    2 points
  45. Above average ice growth in the last 5 days, primarily around the Beaufort/Chukchi region. Ice is pushing further north along the Kara/Laptev edge though, just 503 km from the N. Pole at its closest point.
    2 points
  46. Wintry sunrise this morning with some cumulus clouds coming in off the Firth from the NE on a fresh wind. Very cool feeling. Sudden change in weather means partial winter feeding has started for cattle outside as grass at these temperatures has very little mineral content.This was demonstrated by a newly calved cow with "staggers" yesterday morning necessitating visit by vet and iv magesium and calcium. From a collapsed state to sitting up in 30 minutes but we were lucky as we could easily have lost her.Calf is fine and both are now inside for two days. Lots of molassed(sugar) mineral bu
    2 points
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